Search results for: critical decision method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 26133

Search results for: critical decision method

23823 Solutions of Fuzzy Transportation Problem Using Best Candidates Method and Different Ranking Techniques

Authors: M. S. Annie Christi

Abstract:

Transportation Problem (TP) is based on supply and demand of commodities transported from one source to the different destinations. Usual methods for finding solution of TPs are North-West Corner Rule, Least Cost Method Vogel’s Approximation Method etc. The transportation costs tend to vary at each time. We can use fuzzy numbers which would give solution according to this situation. In this study the Best Candidate Method (BCM) is applied. For ranking Centroid Ranking Technique (CRT) and Robust Ranking Technique have been adopted to transform the fuzzy TP and the above methods are applied to EDWARDS Vacuum Company, Crawley, in West Sussex in the United Kingdom. A Comparative study is also given. We see that the transportation cost can be minimized by the application of CRT under BCM.

Keywords: best candidate method, centroid ranking technique, fuzzy transportation problem, robust ranking technique, transportation problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
23822 Quantitative Evaluation of Mitral Regurgitation by Using Color Doppler Ultrasound

Authors: Shang-Yu Chiang, Yu-Shan Tsai, Shih-Hsien Sung, Chung-Ming Lo

Abstract:

Mitral regurgitation (MR) is a heart disorder which the mitral valve does not close properly when the heart pumps out blood. MR is the most common form of valvular heart disease in the adult population. The diagnostic echocardiographic finding of MR is straightforward due to the well-known clinical evidence. In the determination of MR severity, quantification of sonographic findings would be useful for clinical decision making. Clinically, the vena contracta is a standard for MR evaluation. Vena contracta is the point in a blood stream where the diameter of the stream is the least, and the velocity is the maximum. The quantification of vena contracta, i.e. the vena contracta width (VCW) at mitral valve, can be a numeric measurement for severity assessment. However, manually delineating the VCW may not accurate enough. The result highly depends on the operator experience. Therefore, this study proposed an automatic method to quantify VCW to evaluate MR severity. Based on color Doppler ultrasound, VCW can be observed from the blood flows to the probe as the appearance of red or yellow area. The corresponding brightness represents the value of the flow rate. In the experiment, colors were firstly transformed into HSV (hue, saturation and value) to be closely align with the way human vision perceives red and yellow. Using ellipse to fit the high flow rate area in left atrium, the angle between the mitral valve and the ultrasound probe was calculated to get the vertical shortest diameter as the VCW. Taking the manual measurement as the standard, the method achieved only 0.02 (0.38 vs. 0.36) to 0.03 (0.42 vs. 0.45) cm differences. The result showed that the proposed automatic VCW extraction can be efficient and accurate for clinical use. The process also has the potential to reduce intra- or inter-observer variability at measuring subtle distances.

Keywords: mitral regurgitation, vena contracta, color doppler, image processing

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23821 Design and Development of Data Mining Application for Medical Centers in Remote Areas

Authors: Grace Omowunmi Soyebi

Abstract:

Data Mining is the extraction of information from a large database which helps in predicting a trend or behavior, thereby helping management make knowledge-driven decisions. One principal problem of most hospitals in rural areas is making use of the file management system for keeping records. A lot of time is wasted when a patient visits the hospital, probably in an emergency, and the nurse or attendant has to search through voluminous files before the patient's file can be retrieved; this may cause an unexpected to happen to the patient. This Data Mining application is to be designed using a Structured System Analysis and design method, which will help in a well-articulated analysis of the existing file management system, feasibility study, and proper documentation of the Design and Implementation of a Computerized medical record system. This Computerized system will replace the file management system and help to easily retrieve a patient's record with increased data security, access clinical records for decision-making, and reduce the time range at which a patient gets attended to.

Keywords: data mining, medical record system, systems programming, computing

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23820 Possibility of Prediction of Death in SARS-Cov-2 Patients Using Coagulogram Analysis

Authors: Omonov Jahongir Mahmatkulovic

Abstract:

Purpose: To study the significance of D-dimer (DD), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), and fibrinogen coagulation parameters (Fg) in predicting the course, severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Source and method of research: From September 15, 2021, to November 5, 2021, 93 patients aged 25 to 60 with suspected COVID-19, who are under inpatient treatment at the multidisciplinary clinic of the Tashkent Medical Academy, were retrospectively examined. DD, PT, APTT, and Fg were studied in dynamics and studied changes. Results: Coagulation disorders occurred in the early stages of COVID-19 infection with an increase in DD in 54 (58%) patients and an increase in Fg in 93 (100%) patients. DD and Fg levels are associated with the clinical classification. Of the 33 patients who died, 21 had an increase in DD in the first laboratory study, 27 had an increase in DD in the second and third laboratory studies, and 15 had an increase in PT in the third test. The results of the ROC analysis of mortality showed that the AUC DD was three times 0.721, 0.801, and 0.844, respectively; PT was 0.703, 0.845, and 0.972. (P<0:01). Conclusion”: Coagulation dysfunction is more common in patients with severe and critical conditions. DD and PT can be used as important predictors of mortality from COVID-19.

Keywords: Covid19, DD, PT, Coagulogram analysis, APTT

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
23819 An Analytical Method for Solving General Riccati Equation

Authors: Y. Pala, M. O. Ertas

Abstract:

In this paper, the general Riccati equation is analytically solved by a new transformation. By the method developed, looking at the transformed equation, whether or not an explicit solution can be obtained is readily determined. Since the present method does not require a proper solution for the general solution, it is especially suitable for equations whose proper solutions cannot be seen at first glance. Since the transformed second order linear equation obtained by the present transformation has the simplest form that it can have, it is immediately seen whether or not the original equation can be solved analytically. The present method is exemplified by several examples.

Keywords: Riccati equation, analytical solution, proper solution, nonlinear

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23818 Participation, Network, Women’s Competency, and Government Policy Affecting on Community Development

Authors: Nopsarun Vannasirikul

Abstract:

The purposes of this research paper were to study the current situations of community development, women’s potentials, women’s participation, network, and government policy as well as to study the factors influencing women’s potentials, women’s participation, network, and government policy that have on the community development. The population included the women age of 18 years old who were living in the communities of Bangkok areas. This study was a mix research method of quantitative and qualitative method. A simple random sampling method was utilized to obtain 400 sample groups from 50 districts of Bangkok and to perform data collection by using questionnaire. Also, a purposive sampling method was utilized to obtain 12 informants for an in-depth interview to gain an in-sight information for quantitative method.

Keywords: community development, participation, network, women’s right, management

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23817 Indentifying Critical Factors Influencing Timeshare Purchases in India

Authors: Shivam Kushwaha, Veena Bansal

Abstract:

Timeshare refers to real estate that is owned simultaneously by many, for a specified time in a year, for a specified numbers of years and is maintained and managed by an agency. Timeshare falls under the umbrella of tourism and is often used for vacation. Timeshare industry has attracted significantly less number of customers in India as compared to the US and Europe. In more than 40 years of existence of timeshare industry, it has not been able to grow its roots among Indian customers. The purpose of the study: To explore perception of Indian customers towards the adoption of timeshare segment of the hospitality industry and identify the factors. Source of data: Survey has been done on existing owners of holidays memberships, resorts or those who at least tourism experience in their past purchases. Methodology: Logistic Regression is used to predict binary responses of the customers based on identified critical factors which might influence timeshare purchases. Result: The study identified four factors: discretionary income, exchange options, ownership pride, risk, and measured their influence on intention to purchases in India. It is recognized that is all four variables are statistically significant while explaining in purchase intentions of customers in India.

Keywords: timeshare, holiday, tourism, customer perception, intent to use, Indian tourism

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23816 Gender and Older People: Reframing Gender Analysis through Lifecycle Lens

Authors: Supriya Akerkar

Abstract:

The UN Decade on Healthy Ageing (2021-2030) provides a new opportunity to address ageing and gender issues in different societies. The concept of gender has been used to unpack and analyse the power and constructions of gender relations in different societies. Such analysis has been employed and used to inform policy and practices of governments and non-governmental organisations to further gender equalities in their work. Yet, experiences of older women and men are often left out of such mainstream gender analysis, marginalising their existence and issues. This paper argues that new critical analytical tools are needed to capture the realities and issues of interest to older women and men. In particular, it argues that gender analysis needs to integrate analytical concepts of ageing and lifecycle approach in its framework. The paper develops such a framework by critical interrogation of the gender analysis tools that are currently applied for framing gender issues in international development and humanitarian work. Informed by the realities and experiences of older women and men, developed through a synthesis of available literature, the paper will develop a new framework for gender analysis that can be used by governments and non-government organisations in their work to further gender justice across the life cycle.

Keywords: ageing, gender, older people, social inclusion

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23815 Intelligent Crop Circle: A Blockchain-Driven, IoT-Based, AI-Powered Sustainable Agriculture System

Authors: Mishak Rahul, Naveen Kumar, Bharath Kumar

Abstract:

Conceived as a high-end engine to revolutionise sustainable agri-food production, the intelligent crop circle (ICC) aims to incorporate the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain technology and artificial intelligence (AI) to bolster resource efficiency and prevent waste, increase the volume of production and bring about sustainable solutions with long-term ecosystem conservation as the guiding principle. The operating principle of the ICC relies on bringing together multidisciplinary bottom-up collaborations between producers, researchers and consumers. Key elements of the framework include IoT-based smart sensors for sensing soil moisture, temperature, humidity, nutrient and air quality, which provide short-interval and timely data; blockchain technology for data storage on a private chain, which maintains data integrity, traceability and transparency; and AI-based predictive analysis, which actively predicts resource utilisation, plant growth and environment. This data and AI insights are built into the ICC platform, which uses the resulting DSS (Decision Support System) outlined as help in decision making, delivered through an easy-touse mobile app or web-based interface. Farmers are assumed to use such a decision-making aid behind the power of the logic informed by the data pool. Building on existing data available in the farm management systems, the ICC platform is easily interoperable with other IoT devices. ICC facilitates connections and information sharing in real-time between users, including farmers, researchers and industrial partners, enabling them to cooperate in farming innovation and knowledge exchange. Moreover, ICC supports sustainable practice in agriculture by integrating gamification techniques to stimulate farm adopters, deploying VR technologies to model and visualise 3D farm environments and farm conditions, framing the field scenarios using VR headsets and Real-Time 3D engines, and leveraging edge technologies to facilitate secure and fast communication and collaboration between users involved. And through allowing blockchain-based marketplaces, ICC offers traceability from farm to fork – that is: from producer to consumer. It empowers informed decision-making through tailor-made recommendations generated by means of AI-driven analysis and technology democratisation, enabling small-scale and resource-limited farmers to get their voice heard. It connects with traditional knowledge, brings together multi-stakeholder interactions as well as establishes a participatory ecosystem to incentivise continuous growth and development towards more sustainable agro-ecological food systems. This integrated approach leverages the power of emerging technologies to provide sustainable solutions for a resilient food system, ensuring sustainable agriculture worldwide.

Keywords: blockchain, internet of things, artificial intelligence, decision support system, virtual reality, gamification, traceability, sustainable agriculture

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23814 A Model of Critical Consideration of Environmental Education: Concepts, Contexts, and Competencies

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Hamid Ullah Khan, Shah Waliullah

Abstract:

Recently, environmental education is an essential element in avoiding environmental degradation around the globe that needs new articles and policymakers’ emphasis. Hence, the present article examines the impact of environmental education on environmental knowledge, environmental behavior, and environmental attitudes in Indonesia. The present research also investigated the moderating role of government support in environmental education, environmental knowledge, environmental behavior, and environmental attitude in Indonesia. A questionnaire was used as the primary data collection method. The smart PLS was utilized to test the association among variables and the hypotheses of the study. The results revealed that environmental education had a significant and positive linkage with environmental knowledge, environmental behavior, and environmental attitude in Indonesia. The findings also exposed that government support significantly moderated environmental education, environmental knowledge, and environmental behavior in Indonesia. The findings of this research would provide help to the policymakers in establishing the policies related to environmental education and reducing environmental degradation.

Keywords: environmental education, environmental knowledge, environmental behavior, environmental attitude, government support

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23813 The Guaranteed Detection of the Seismoacoustic Emission Source in the C-OTDR Systems

Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

A method is proposed for stable detection of seismoacoustic sources in C-OTDR systems that guarantee given upper bounds for probabilities of type I and type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this.

Keywords: guaranteed detection, C-OTDR systems, change point, interval estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
23812 Development of Risk Index and Corporate Governance Index: An Application on Indian PSUs

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

Abstract:

Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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23811 Flood Planning Based on Risk Optimization: A Case Study in Phan-Calo River Basin in Vinh Phuc Province, Vietnam

Authors: Nguyen Quang Kim, Nguyen Thu Hien, Nguyen Thien Dung

Abstract:

Flood disasters are increasing worldwide in both frequency and magnitude. Every year in Vietnam, flood causes great damage to people, property, and environmental degradation. The flood risk management policy in Vietnam is currently updated. The planning of flood mitigation strategies is reviewed to make a decision how to reach sustainable flood risk reduction. This paper discusses the basic approach where the measures of flood protection are chosen based on minimizing the present value of expected monetary expenses, total residual risk and costs of flood control measures. This approach will be proposed and demonstrated in a case study for flood risk management in Vinh Phuc province of Vietnam. Research also proposed the framework to find a solution of optimal protection level and optimal measures of the flood. It provides an explicit economic basis for flood risk management plans and interactive effects of options for flood damage reduction. The results of the case study are demonstrated and discussed which would provide the processing of actions helped decision makers to choose flood risk reduction investment options.

Keywords: drainage plan, flood planning, flood risk, residual risk, risk optimization

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23810 Control HVAC Parameters by Brain Emotional Learning Based Intelligent Controller (BELBIC)

Authors: Javad Abdi, Azam Famil Khalili

Abstract:

Modeling emotions have attracted much attention in recent years, both in cognitive psychology and design of artificial systems. However, it is a negative factor in decision-making; emotions have shown to be a strong faculty for making fast satisfying decisions. In this paper, we have adapted a computational model based on the limbic system in the mammalian brain for control engineering applications. Learning in this model based on Temporal Difference (TD) Learning, we applied the proposed controller (termed BELBIC) for a simple model of a submarine. The model was supposed to reach the desired depth underwater. Our results demonstrate excellent control action, disturbance handling, and system parameter robustness for TDBELBIC. The proposal method, regarding the present conditions, the system action in the part and the controlling aims, can control the system in a way that these objectives are attained in the least amount of time and the best way.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, temporal difference, brain emotional learning based intelligent controller, heating- ventilating and air conditioning

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23809 Sensory Evaluation of Meat from Broilers Bird Fed Detoxified Jatropher Curcas and that Fed Conventional Feed

Authors: W. S. Lawal, T. A. Akande

Abstract:

Four (4) different methods were employed to detoxified jatropha caucas, they are physical method (if include soaking and drying) chemical method (use of methylated spirit, hexane and methene) biological method,(use of Aspergillus niger and Sunday for 7 days and then baccillus lichifarming) and finally combined method (combination of all these methods). Phobol esther andysis was carried out after the detoxification and was found that combined method is better off (P>0.05). 100 broiler birds was used to further test the effect of detoxified Jatropha by combined method, 50 birds for Jatropha made feed at 10 birds per treatment and was replicated five times, this was also repeated for another 50 birds fed conventional feed, Jatropha made feed was compranded at 8% inclusion level. At the end of the 8th weeks, 8 birds were sacrificed each from each treatment and one bird each was fry, roast, boil and grilled from both conventional and Jatropha fed birds and panelist were served for evaluation. It was found that feeding Jatropha to poultry birds has no effect on the taste of the meat.

Keywords: phobol esther, inclusion level, tolerance level, Jatropha carcass

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23808 Nonlinear Heat Transfer in a Spiral Fin with a Period Base Temperature

Authors: Kuo-Teng Tsai, You-Min Huang

Abstract:

In this study, the problem of a spiral fin with a period base temperature is analyzed by using the Adomian decomposition method. The Adomian decomposition method is a useful and practice method to solve the nonlinear energy equation which are associated with the heat radiation. The period base temperature is around a mean value. The results including the temperature distribution and the heat flux from the spiral fin base can be calculated directly. The results also discussed the effects of the dimensionless variables for the temperature variations and the total energy transferred from the spiral fin base.

Keywords: spiral fin, period, adomian decomposition method, nonlinear

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23807 Enhancing Warehousing Operation In Cold Supply Chain Through The Use Of IOT And Lifi Technologies

Authors: Sarah El-Gamal, Passent Hossam, Ahmed Abd El Aziz, Rojina Mahmoud, Ahmed Hassan, Dalia Hilal, Eman Ayman, Hana Haytham, Omar Khamis

Abstract:

Several concerns fall upon the supply chain, especially the cold supply chain. According to the literature, the main challenges in the cold supply chain are the distribution and storage phases. In this research, researchers focused on the storage area, which contains several activities such as the picking activity that faces a lot of obstacles and challenges The implementation of IoT solutions enables businesses to monitor the temperature of food items, which is perhaps the most critical parameter in cold chains. Therefore, researchers proposed a practical solution that would help in eliminating the problems related to ineffective picking for products, especially fish and seafood products, by using IoT technology, most notably LiFi technology. Thus, guaranteeing sufficient picking, reducing waste, and consequently lowering costs. A prototype was specially designed and examined. This research is a single case study research. Two methods of data collection were used; observation and semi-structured interviews. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers and decision maker at Carrefour Alexandria to validate the problem and the proposed practical solution using IoTandLiFi technology. A total of three interviews were conducted. As a result, a SWOT analysis was achieved in order to highlight all the strengths and weaknesses of using the recommended Lifi solution in the picking process. According to the investigations, it was found that the use of IoT and LiFi technology is cost effective, efficient, and reduces human errors, minimize the percentage of product waste and thus save money and cost. Thus, increasing customer satisfaction and profits gained.

Keywords: cold supply chain, picking process, temperature control, IOT, warehousing, LIFI

Procedia PDF Downloads 193
23806 Optimization and Coordination of Organic Product Supply Chains under Competition: An Analytical Modeling Perspective

Authors: Mohammadreza Nematollahi, Bahareh Mosadegh Sedghy, Alireza Tajbakhsh

Abstract:

The last two decades have witnessed substantial attention to organic and sustainable agricultural supply chains. Motivated by real-world practices, this paper aims to address two main challenges observed in organic product supply chains: decentralized decision-making process between farmers and their retailers, and competition between organic products and their conventional counterparts. To this aim, an agricultural supply chain consisting of two farmers, a conventional farmer and an organic farmer who offers an organic version of the same product, is considered. Both farmers distribute their products through a single retailer, where there exists competition between the organic and the conventional product. The retailer, as the market leader, sets the wholesale price, and afterward, the farmers set their production quantity decisions. This paper first models the demand functions of the conventional and organic products by incorporating the effect of asymmetric brand equity, which captures the fact that consumers usually pay a premium for organic due to positive perceptions regarding their health and environmental benefits. Then, profit functions with consideration of some characteristics of organic farming, including crop yield gap and organic cost factor, are modeled. Our research also considers both economies and diseconomies of scale in farming production as well as the effects of organic subsidy paid by the government to support organic farming. This paper explores the investigated supply chain in three scenarios: decentralized, centralized, and coordinated decision-making structures. In the decentralized scenario, the conventional and organic farmers and the retailer maximize their own profits individually. In this case, the interaction between the farmers is modeled under the Bertrand competition, while analyzing the interaction between the retailer and farmers under the Stackelberg game structure. In the centralized model, the optimal production strategies are obtained from the entire supply chain perspective. Analytical models are developed to derive closed-form optimal solutions. Moreover, analytical sensitivity analyses are conducted to explore the effects of main parameters like the crop yield gap, organic cost factor, organic subsidy, and percent price premium of the organic product on the farmers’ and retailer’s optimal strategies. Afterward, a coordination scenario is proposed to convince the three supply chain members to shift from the decentralized to centralized decision-making structure. The results indicate that the proposed coordination scenario provides a win-win-win situation for all three members compared to the decentralized model. Moreover, our paper demonstrates that the coordinated model respectively increases and decreases the production and price of organic produce, which in turn motivates the consumption of organic products in the market. Moreover, the proposed coordination model helps the organic farmer better handle the challenges of organic farming, including the additional cost and crop yield gap. Last but not least, our results highlight the active role of the organic subsidy paid by the government as a means of promoting sustainable organic product supply chains. Our paper shows that although the amount of organic subsidy plays a significant role in the production and sales price of organic products, the allocation method of subsidy between the organic farmer and retailer is not of that importance.

Keywords: analytical game-theoretic model, product competition, supply chain coordination, sustainable organic supply chain

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23805 Experimental Research of Corrosion Resistance Desalination Plant Pipe According to Weld Overlay Layers

Authors: Ryu Wonjin, Choi Hyeok, Park Joonhong

Abstract:

Overlay welding for improving surface properties is a method of the surface treatments which improve surface properties of material by welding materials of alloy having corrosion resistance on the basic material surface. Overlay welding affects contents of chemical components and weld hardness from different parts by dilution of the lamination layer thickness, and it determines surface properties. Therefore, overlay welding has to take into account thickness of the lamination layers with the process. As a result in this study examined contents of Fe, weldability of the base metal and monel materials, hardness and surface flatness from different parts according to each the lamination layer parameters by overlay welding monel materials with corrosion resources to the base material of carbon steel. Through this, evaluated effect by the lamination layer parameters of welding and presented decision methods of the lamination layer parameters of the overlay welding by the purpose of use.

Keywords: clad pipe, lamination layer parameters, monel, overlay welding

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23804 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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23803 Investigating Students’ Cognitive Processes in Solving Stoichiometric Problems and its Implications to Teaching and Learning Chemistry

Authors: Allen A. Espinosa, Larkins A. Trinidad

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The present study investigated collegiate students’ problem solving strategies and misconceptions in solving stoichiometric problems and later on formulate a teaching framework from the result of the study. The study found out that the most prominent strategies among students are the mole method and the proportionality method, which are both algorithmic by nature. Misconception was also noted as some students rely on Avogadro’s number in converting between moles. It is suggested therefore that the teaching of stoichiometry should not be confined to demonstration. Students should be involved in the process of thinking of ways to solve the problem.

Keywords: stoichiometry, Svogadro’s number, mole method, proportionality method

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23802 A Critical Knowledge of Brand Equity in Thai Academic Works

Authors: Pongsiri Kamkankaew

Abstract:

This paper experiments to consider brand equity thought in Thai academic works. This essay employs that the first emerging of brand equity in Thai academic works and the components of brand equity which explore the extent to the convoluted approach with other Thai social condition. In Thailand, brand equity is supposed to provide branding and brand management replacement. However, the commitment of brand equity imposes in its proposal for seemly application in Thai context – to develop the brand equity framework by the Thai social – culture and Thai utilization style which it is questionable whether the brand equity in western conception is useful for characterizing the brand equity in Thailand context. In this position, brand equity also aspects several major questions: How can western conception lead to apply in Thai business? How can diversification be given within Thai SMEs business running? Can corporate brand valuation approach adopt in real business doing? So this paper argues that Thai brand equity notion should reduce disturb over improvement of its self-restraint and business area. Instead, Thai academic who are interested in brand equity can harmonize different mature bodies of discipline and other investigative a frame of references to complete and open the recognizing of brand equity.

Keywords: Thai brand equity, knowledge critical, brand management, branding

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23801 Breast Cancer Risk is Predicted Using Fuzzy Logic in MATLAB Environment

Authors: S. Valarmathi, P. B. Harathi, R. Sridhar, S. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Machine learning tools in medical diagnosis is increasing due to the improved effectiveness of classification and recognition systems to help medical experts in diagnosing breast cancer. In this study, ID3 chooses the splitting attribute with the highest gain in information, where gain is defined as the difference between before the split versus after the split. It is applied for age, location, taluk, stage, year, period, martial status, treatment, heredity, sex, and habitat against Very Serious (VS), Very Serious Moderate (VSM), Serious (S) and Not Serious (NS) to calculate the gain of information. The ranked histogram gives the gain of each field for the breast cancer data. The doctors use TNM staging which will decide the risk level of the breast cancer and play an important decision making field in fuzzy logic for perception based measurement. Spatial risk area (taluk) of the breast cancer is calculated. Result clearly states that Coimbatore (North and South) was found to be risk region to the breast cancer than other areas at 20% criteria. Weighted value of taluk was compared with criterion value and integrated with Map Object to visualize the results. ID3 algorithm shows the high breast cancer risk regions in the study area. The study has outlined, discussed and resolved the algorithms, techniques / methods adopted through soft computing methodology like ID3 algorithm for prognostic decision making in the seriousness of the breast cancer.

Keywords: ID3 algorithm, breast cancer, fuzzy logic, MATLAB

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23800 Detecting Music Enjoyment Level Using Electroencephalogram Signals and Machine Learning Techniques

Authors: Raymond Feng, Shadi Ghiasi

Abstract:

An electroencephalogram (EEG) is a non-invasive technique that records electrical activity in the brain using scalp electrodes. Researchers have studied the use of EEG to detect emotions and moods by collecting signals from participants and analyzing how those signals correlate with their activities. In this study, researchers investigated the relationship between EEG signals and music enjoyment. Participants listened to music while data was collected. During the signal-processing phase, power spectral densities (PSDs) were computed from the signals, and dominant brainwave frequencies were extracted from the PSDs to form a comprehensive feature matrix. A machine learning approach was then taken to find correlations between the processed data and the music enjoyment level indicated by the participants. To improve on previous research, multiple machine learning models were employed, including K-Nearest Neighbors Classifier, Support Vector Classifier, and Decision Tree Classifier. Hyperparameters were used to fine-tune each model to further increase its performance. The experiments showed that a strong correlation exists, with the Decision Tree Classifier with hyperparameters yielding 85% accuracy. This study proves that EEG is a reliable means to detect music enjoyment and has future applications, including personalized music recommendation, mood adjustment, and mental health therapy.

Keywords: EEG, electroencephalogram, machine learning, mood, music enjoyment, physiological signals

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23799 Wireless Sensor Network for Forest Fire Detection and Localization

Authors: Tarek Dandashi

Abstract:

WSNs may provide a fast and reliable solution for the early detection of environment events like forest fires. This is crucial for alerting and calling for fire brigade intervention. Sensor nodes communicate sensor data to a host station, which enables a global analysis and the generation of a reliable decision on a potential fire and its location. A WSN with TinyOS and nesC for the capturing and transmission of a variety of sensor information with controlled source, data rates, duration, and the records/displaying activity traces is presented. We propose a similarity distance (SD) between the distribution of currently sensed data and that of a reference. At any given time, a fire causes diverging opinions in the reported data, which alters the usual data distribution. Basically, SD consists of a metric on the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). SD is designed to be invariant versus day-to-day changes of temperature, changes due to the surrounding environment, and normal changes in weather, which preserve the data locality. Evaluation shows that SD sensitivity is quadratic versus an increase in sensor node temperature for a group of sensors of different sizes and neighborhood. Simulation of fire spreading when ignition is placed at random locations with some wind speed shows that SD takes a few minutes to reliably detect fires and locate them. We also discuss the case of false negative and false positive and their impact on the decision reliability.

Keywords: forest fire, WSN, wireless sensor network, algortihm

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23798 Optimizing Boiler Combustion System in a Petrochemical Plant Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Yul Y. Nazaruddin, Anas Y. Widiaribowo, Satriyo Nugroho

Abstract:

Boiler is one of the critical unit in a petrochemical plant. Steam produced by the boiler is used for various processes in the plant such as urea and ammonia plant. An alternative method to optimize the boiler combustion system is presented in this paper. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach is applied to model the boiler using real-time operational data collected from a boiler unit of the petrochemical plant. Nonlinear equation obtained is then used to optimize the air to fuel ratio using Genetic Algorithm, resulting an optimal ratio of 15.85. This optimal ratio is then maintained constant by ratio controller designed using inverse dynamics based on ANFIS. As a result, constant value of oxygen content in the flue gas is obtained which indicates more efficient combustion process.

Keywords: ANFIS, boiler, combustion process, genetic algorithm, optimization.

Procedia PDF Downloads 254
23797 Autonomic Sonar Sensor Fault Manager for Mobile Robots

Authors: Martin Doran, Roy Sterritt, George Wilkie

Abstract:

NASA, ESA, and NSSC space agencies have plans to put planetary rovers on Mars in 2020. For these future planetary rovers to succeed, they will heavily depend on sensors to detect obstacles. This will also become of vital importance in the future, if rovers become less dependent on commands received from earth-based control and more dependent on self-configuration and self-decision making. These planetary rovers will face harsh environments and the possibility of hardware failure is high, as seen in missions from the past. In this paper, we focus on using Autonomic principles where self-healing, self-optimization, and self-adaption are explored using the MAPE-K model and expanding this model to encapsulate the attributes such as Awareness, Analysis, and Adjustment (AAA-3). In the experimentation, a Pioneer P3-DX research robot is used to simulate a planetary rover. The sonar sensors on the P3-DX robot are used to simulate the sensors on a planetary rover (even though in reality, sonar sensors cannot operate in a vacuum). Experiments using the P3-DX robot focus on how our software system can be adapted with the loss of sonar sensor functionality. The autonomic manager system is responsible for the decision making on how to make use of remaining ‘enabled’ sonars sensors to compensate for those sonar sensors that are ‘disabled’. The key to this research is that the robot can still detect objects even with reduced sonar sensor capability.

Keywords: autonomic, self-adaption, self-healing, self-optimization

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23796 Evaluation of Biosurfactant Production by a New Strain Isolated from the Lagoon of Mar Chica Degrading Gasoline

Authors: Ikram Kamal, Mohamed Blaghen

Abstract:

Pollution caused by petroleum hydrocarbons in terrestrial and aquatic environment is a common phenomenon that causes significant ecological and social problems. Biosurfactant applications in the environmental industries are promising due to their biodegradability, low toxicity and effectiveness in enhancing biodegradation and solubilization of low solubility compounds. Currently, the main application is for enhancement of oil recovery and hydrocarbon bioremediation due to their biodegradability and low critical micelle concentration (CMC). In this study we have investigated the potential of bacterial strains collected aseptically from the lagoon Marchika (water and soil) in Nador, Morocco; for the production of biosurfactants. This study also aimed to optimize the biosurfactant production process by changing the variables that influence the type and amount of biosurfactant produced by these microorganisms such as: carbon sources and also other physical and chemical parameters such as temperature and pH. Emulsification index, methylene blue test and thin layer chromatography (TLC) revealed the ability of strains used in this study to produce compounds that could emulsify gasoline. In addition a GC/MS was used to separate and identify different biosurfactants purified.

Keywords: petroleum hydrocarbons, biosurfactant, biodegradability, critical micelle concentration, lagoon Marchika

Procedia PDF Downloads 359
23795 Growth Analysis in Wheat as Influenced by Water Stress and Variety in Sokoto, Sudan Savannah, Nigeria

Authors: M. B. Sokoto, I. U. Abubakar

Abstract:

The study was carried out on effect of water stress and variety on growth of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), during 2009/10 and 2010/11 dry seasons. The treatments consisted of factorial combination of water stress at three critical growth stage which was imposed by withholding water at (Tillering, Flowering, Grain filling) and Control (No stress) and two varieties (Star 11 TR 77173/SLM and Kauze/Weaver) laid out in a split-plot design with three replications. Water stress was assigned to the main-plot while variety was assigned to the sub-plots. Result revealed significant (P<0.05) effect of water stress, water stress at tillering significantly (P<0.05) reduced plant height, LAI, CGR, and NAR. Variety had a significant effect on plant height, LAI, CGR and NAR. In conclusion water stress at tillering was observed to be most critical growth stage in wheat, and water stress at this period should be avoided because it results to decrease in growth components in wheat. Wheat should be sown in November or at least first week of December in this area and other area with similar climate. Star II TR 77173/LM is recommended variety for the area.

Keywords: wheat, growth, water stress, variety, Sudan savannah

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
23794 Understanding the Damage Evolution and the Risk of Failure of Pyrrhotite Containing Concrete Foundations

Authors: Marisa Chrysochoou, James Mahoney, Kay Wille

Abstract:

Pyrrhotite is an iron-sulfide mineral which releases sulfuric acid when exposed to water and oxygen. The presence of this mineral in concrete foundations across Connecticut and Massachusetts in the US is causing in some cases premature failure. This has resulted in a devastating crisis for all parties affected by this type of failure which can take up to 15-25 years before internal damage becomes visible on the surface. This study shares laboratory results aimed to investigate the fundamental mechanisms of pyrrhotite reaction and to further the understanding of its deterioration kinetics within concrete. This includes the following analyses: total sulfur, wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence, expansion, reaction rate combined with ion-chromatography, as well as damage evolution using electro-chemical acceleration. This information is coupled to a statistical analysis of over 150 analyzed concrete foundations. Those samples were obtained and process using a developed and validated sampling method that is minimally invasive to the foundation in use, provides representative samples of the concrete matrix across the entire foundation, and is time and cost-efficient. The processed samples were then analyzed using a developed modular testing method based on total sulfur and wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to quantify the amount of pyrrhotite. As part of the statistical analysis the results were grouped into the following three categories: no damage observed and no pyrrhotite detected, no damage observed and pyrrhotite detected and damaged observed and pyrrhotite detected. As expected, a strong correlation between amount of pyrrhotite, age of the concrete and damage is observed. Information from the laboratory investigation and from the statistical analysis of field samples will aid in forming a scientific basis to support the decision process towards sustainable financial and administrative solutions by state and local stakeholders.

Keywords: concrete, pyrrhotite, risk of failure, statistical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 68