Search results for: statistical area

Authors: Bronwen Wade

Abstract:

Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Hasan Ziari, Hassan Fazaeli, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei, Asma Sadat Dabiri

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The presence of cracks in concrete pavements is a place for the ingression of corrosive substances, acids, oils, and water into the pavement and reduces its long-term durability and level of service. One of the causes of early cracks in concrete pavements is the plastic shrinkage. This shrinkage occurs due to the formation of negative capillary pressures after the equilibrium of the bleeding and evaporation rates at the pavement surface. These cracks form if the tensile stresses caused by the restrained shrinkage exceed the tensile strength of the concrete. Different climate conditions change the rate of evaporation and thus change the balance time of the bleeding and evaporation, which changes the severity of cracking in concrete. The present study examined the relationship between the balance time of bleeding and evaporation and the area of cracking in the concrete slabs using the standard method ASTM C1579 in 27 different environmental conditions by using continuous video recording and digital image analyzing. The results showed that as the evaporation rate increased and the balance time decreased, the crack severity significantly increased so that by reducing the balance time from the maximum value to its minimum value, the cracking area increased more than four times. It was also observed that the cracking area- balance time curve could be interpreted in three sections. An examination of these three parts showed that the combination of climate conditions has a significant effect on increasing or decreasing these two variables. The criticality of a single factor cannot cause the critical conditions of plastic cracking. By combining two mild environmental factors with a severe climate factor (in terms of surface evaporation rate), a considerable reduction in balance time and a sharp increase in cracking severity can be prevented. The results of this study showed that balance time could be an essential factor in controlling and predicting plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete pavements. It is necessary to control this factor in the case of constructing concrete pavements in different climate conditions.

Keywords: bleeding and cracking severity, concrete pavements, climate conditions, plastic shrinkage

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: N. Norazlimi, R. Ramli

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A study was conducted to determine the diversity and abundance of shorebird species habituating the mudflat area of Jeram Beach and Remis Beach, Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia. Direct observation technique (using binoculars and video camera) was applied to record the presence of bird species in the sampling sites from August 2013 until July 2014. A total of 32 species of shorebird were recorded during both migratory and non-migratory seasons. Of these, eleven species (47.8%) are migrants, six species (26.1%) have both migrant and resident populations, four species (17.4%) are vagrants and two species (8.7%) are residents. The compositions of the birds differed significantly in all months (χ2=84.35, p<0.001). There is a significant difference in avian abundance between migratory and non-migratory seasons (Mann-Whitney, t=2.39, p=0.036). The avian abundance were differed significantly in Jeram and Remis Beaches during migratory periods (t=4.39, p=0.001) but not during non-migratory periods (t=0.78, p=0.456). Shorebird diversity was also affected by tidal cycle. There is a significance difference between high tide and low tide (Mann-Whitney, t=78.0, p<0.005). Frequency of disturbance also affected the shorebird distribution (Mann-Whitney, t=57.0, p= 0.0134). Therefore, this study concluded that tides and disturbances are two factors that affecting temporal distribution of shorebird in mudflats area.

Keywords: biodiversity, distribution, migratory birds, direct observation

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Rami Hashish, Manon Limousis-Gayda, Caitlin H. McCleery

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Introduction: A leading cause of emergency room visits among youth (in the United States), is sports-related traumatic brain injuries. Mild traumatic brain injuries (mTBIs), also called concussions, are caused by linear and/or angular acceleration experienced at the head and represent an increasing societal burden. Due to the developing nature of the brain in youth, there is a great risk for long-term neuropsychological deficiencies following a concussion. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to investigate incidence rates of concussion across gender for the five most common youth sports in the United States. These include basketball, track and field, soccer, baseball (boys), softball (girls), football (boys), and volleyball (girls). Methods: A PubMed search was performed for four search themes combined. The first theme identified the outcomes (concussion, brain injuries, mild traumatic brain injury, etc.). The second theme identified the sport (American football, soccer, basketball, softball, volleyball, track, and field, etc.). The third theme identified the population (adolescence, children, youth, boys, girls). The last theme identified the study design (prevalence, frequency, incidence, prospective). Ultimately, 473 studies were surveyed, with 15 fulfilling the criteria: prospective study presenting original data and incidence of concussion in the relevant youth sport. The following data were extracted from the selected studies: population age, total study population, total athletic exposures (AE) and incidence rate per 1000 athletic exposures (IR/1000). Two One-Way ANOVA and a Tukey’s post hoc test were conducted using SPSS. Results: From the 15 selected studies, statistical analysis revealed the incidence of concussion per 1000 AEs across the considered sports ranged from 0.014 (girl’s track and field) to 0.780 (boy’s football). Average IR/1000 across all sports was 0.483 and 0.268 for boys and girls, respectively; this difference in IR was found to be statistically significant (p=0.013). Tukey’s post hoc test showed that football had significantly higher IR/1000 than boys’ basketball (p=0.022), soccer (p=0.033) and track and field (p=0.026). No statistical difference was found for concussion incidence between girls’ sports. Removal of football was found to lower the IR/1000 for boys without a statistical difference (p=0.101) compared to girls. Discussion: Football was the only sport showing a statistically significant difference in concussion incidence rate relative to other sports (within gender). Males were overall more likely to be concussed than females when football was included (1.8x), whereas concussion was more likely for females when football was excluded. While the significantly higher rate of concussion in football is not surprising because of the nature and rules of the sport, it is concerning that research has shown higher incidence of concussion in practices than games. Interestingly, findings indicate that girls’ sports are more concussive overall when football is removed. This appears to counter the common notion that boys’ sports are more physically taxing and dangerous. Future research should focus on understanding the concussive mechanisms of injury in each sport to enable effective rule changes.

Keywords: gender, football, soccer, traumatic brain injury

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Balaji Ganesh Rajagopal, Subramanian Appavu alias Balamurugan, Ayyalraj Midhun Kumar, Krishnan Nallaperumal

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Intelligent Transportation System is an Emerging area to solve multiple transportation problems. Several forms of inputs are needed in order to solve ITS problems. Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is a core and important ITS area of this modern era. This involves travel time forecasting, efficient road map analysis and cost based path selection, Detection of the vehicle in the dynamic conditions and Traffic congestion state forecasting. This Article designs and provides an algorithm for traffic data generation which can be used for the above said ATIS application. By inputting the real world traffic situation in the form of video sequences, the algorithm determines the Traffic density in terms of congestion, number of vehicles in a given path which can be fed for various ATIS applications. The Algorithm deduces the key frame from the video sequences and follows the Blob detection, Identification and Tracking using connected components algorithm to determine the correlation between the vehicles moving in the real road scene.

Keywords: traffic transportation, traffic density estimation, blob identification and tracking, relative velocity of vehicles, correlation between vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 504

Authors: Larissa Bolliger, Junoš Lukan, Mitja Lustrek, Dirk De Bacquer, Els Clays

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Introduction and Aim: Chronic workplace stress and its health-related consequences like mental and cardiovascular diseases have been widely investigated. This project focuses on the sources and context of psychosocial daily workplace stress in a real-world setting. The main objective is to analyze and model real-time relationships between (1) psychosocial stress experiences within the natural work environment, (2) micro-level work activities and events, and (3) physiological signals and behaviors in office workers. Methods: An Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) protocol has been developed, partly building on machine learning techniques. Empatica® wristbands will be used for real-life detection of stress from physiological signals; micro-level activities and events at work will be based on smartphone registrations, further processed according to an automated computer algorithm. A field study including 100 office-based workers with high-level problem-solving tasks like managers and researchers will be implemented in Slovenia and Belgium (50 in each country). Data mining and state-of-the-art statistical methods – mainly multilevel statistical modelling for repeated data – will be used. Expected Results and Impact: The project findings will provide novel contributions to the field of occupational health research. While traditional assessments provide information about global perceived state of chronic stress exposure, the EMA approach is expected to bring new insights about daily fluctuating work stress experiences, especially micro-level events and activities at work that induce acute physiological stress responses. The project is therefore likely to generate further evidence on relevant stressors in a real-time working environment and hence make it possible to advise on workplace procedures and policies for reducing stress.

Keywords: ecological momentary assessment, real-time, stress, work

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Hatem K. Hamed, Mohamed S. Hrouda

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The Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation was deposited in a ramp system with local shoaling. The main constituent is limestone, with subordinate dolomites and Shales. Reservoir quality is largely influenced by depositional environments and diagenesis processes. Generally the reservoir quality of Lower Beda Formation is low risk on the Inferred Horst and in the Southern Shelf where the Lower Beda formation comprises mainly of calcarenties. In the vicinity of the well GG1 the Lower Beda comprise mainly of argillaceous calcilutites and shale. The reservoir quality gradually improves from high risk to moderate risk towards KK1, LL1 and NN1 wells. The average gross thickness of Lower Beda Formation is about 300 ft. The net thickness varies from about 270 ft. in the E1-71 well to about 30 ft. in the vicinity of GG1-71 well. The net thickest of Lower Beda form a NNW-SSW trend with an average of 250 ft. the change in facies is due to change in the depositional environment, from lagoonal to shoal barrier to open marine affected the reservoir quality. The Upper Cretaceous Sirte Shale is the main source rock. It is developed within the three troughs surrounding the study area. S-Marada Trough to the N- E, Gerad Trough to the N N-W, and Abu Tummym Sub-basin to the S-W of the Inferred Horst. Sirte shale reaches 1000ft, of organically rich section. It has good organic contents over large area 2% to 3%. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered in several wells in Beda Formation this is an indication of vertical and lateral migration of hydrocarbon. The overlying Upper Paleocene Khalifa Formation is a transgressive shale, it is an effective regional top seal. Lithofacies variations in Khalifa Shale, from shales to limestones in the southern shelf in R1-71 well approximately 50-75% of the secession is limestone. About 47 million barrel of hydrocarbon recoverable reserves is expected to be trapped in structural and stratigraphic traps in Beda Formation in the study area.

Keywords: Sirte basin, Beda formation, concession 71, petroleum play fairway analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Minh Nguyen

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Today, QR or Quick Response Codes are prevalent, and mobile/smart devices can efficiently read and understand them. Therefore, we can see their appearance in many areas, such as storing web pages/websites, business phone numbers, redirecting to an app download, business location, social media. The popularity of the QR Code is mainly because of its many advantages, such as it can hold a good amount of information, is small, easy to scan and read by a general RGB camera, and it can still work with some damages on its surface. However, there are still some issues. For instance, some areas needed to be kept untouched for its successful decode (e.g., the “Finder Patterns,” the “Quiet Zone,” etc.), the capability of built-in auto-correction is not robust enough, and it is not flexible enough for many application such as Augment Reality (AR). We proposed a new Colour Quick Response Code that has several advantages over the original ones: (1) there is no untouchable area, (2) it allows up to 40% of the entire code area to be damaged, (3) it is more beneficial for Augmented Reality applications, and (4) it is back-compatible and readable by available QR Code scanners such as Pyzbar. From our experience, our Colour Quick Response Code is significantly more flexible on damage compared to the original QR Code. Our code is believed to be suitable in situations where standard 2D Barcodes fail to work, such as curved and shiny surfaces, for instance, medical blood test sample tubes and syringes.

Keywords: QR code, computer vision, image processing, 2D barcode

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Seher Arslankaya, Bahar Uludağ

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Meeting the needs and demands of customers and pleasing the customers are important requirements for companies in food sectors where the growth of competition is significantly unpredictable. Customer satisfaction is also one of the key concepts which is mainly driven by wide range of customer preference and expectation upon products and services introduced and delivered to them. In order to meet the customer demands, the companies that engage in food sectors are expected to have a well-managed set of Total Quality Management (TQM), which sets out to improve quality of products and services; to reduce costs and to increase customer satisfaction by restructuring traditional management practices. It aims to increase customer satisfaction by meeting (their) customer expectations and requirements. The achievement would be determined with the help of customer satisfaction surveys, which is done to obtain immediate feedback and to provide quick responses. In addition, the surveys would also assist the making of strategic planning which helps to anticipate customer future needs and expectations. Meanwhile, periodic measurement of customer satisfaction would be a must because with the better understanding of customers perceptions from the surveys (done by questioners), the companies would have a clear idea to identify their own strengths and weaknesses that help the companies keep their loyal customers; to stand in comparison toward their competitors and map out their future progress and improvement. In this study, we propose a survey based on customer satisfaction measurement method and its statistical analysis for sales and logistic activities of food firms. Customer satisfaction would be discussed in details. Furthermore, after analysing the data derived from the questionnaire that applied to customers by using the SPSS software, various results obtained from the application would be presented. By also applying ANOVA test, the study would analysis the existence of meaningful differences between customer demographic proportion and their perceptions. The purpose of this study is also to find out requirements which help to remove the effects that decrease customer satisfaction and produce loyal customers in food industry. For this purpose, the customer complaints are collected. Additionally, comments and suggestions are done according to the obtained results of surveys, which would be useful for the making-process of strategic planning in food industry.

Keywords: customer satisfaction measurement and analysis, food industry, SPSS, TQM

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Manuel Salado, Mikel Rincón, Arkaitz Fidalgo, Roberto Fernandez, Senentxu Lanceros-Méndez

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Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are a promising technology for energy storage, but they suffer from safety concerns due to the use of flammable organic solvents in their liquid electrolytes. Solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) offer a potential solution to this problem, but they have their own limitations, such as poor ionic conductivity and high interfacial resistance. The aim of this research was to develop a new type of SSE based on metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) and ionic liquids (ILs). MOFs are porous materials with high surface area and tunable electronic properties, making them ideal for use in SSEs. ILs are liquid electrolytes that are non-flammable and have high ionic conductivity. A series of MOFs were synthesized, and their electrochemical properties were evaluated. The MOFs were then infiltrated with ILs to form a quasi-solid gel and solid xerogel SSEs. The ionic conductivity, interfacial resistance, and electrochemical performance of the SSEs were characterized. The results showed that the MOF-IL SSEs had significantly higher ionic conductivity and lower interfacial resistance than conventional SSEs. The SSEs also exhibited excellent electrochemical performance, with high discharge capacity and long cycle life. The development of MOF-IL SSEs represents a significant advance in the field of solid-state electrolytes. The high ionic conductivity and low interfacial resistance of the SSEs make them promising candidates for use in next-generation LIBs. The data for this research was collected using a variety of methods, including X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The data was analyzed using a variety of statistical and computational methods, including principal component analysis, density functional theory, and molecular dynamics simulations. The main question addressed by this research was whether MOF-IL SSEs could be developed that have high ionic conductivity, low interfacial resistance, and excellent electrochemical performance. The results of this research demonstrate that MOF-IL SSEs are a promising new type of solid-state electrolyte for use in LIBs. The SSEs have high ionic conductivity, low interfacial resistance, and excellent electrochemical performance. These properties make them promising candidates for use in next-generation LIBs that are safer and have higher energy densities.

Keywords: energy storage, solid-electrolyte, ionic liquid, metal-organic-framework, electrochemistry, organic inorganic plastic crystal

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Belagoune Fares, Boutoutaou Djamel

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The study on floods in Algeria established by the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) shows that the country is confronted with the phenomenon of very destructive floods and floods especially in arid and semiarid regions. Flooding of rivers in these areas is less known. They are characterized by their sudden duration (rain showers, thunderstorm).The duration of the flood is of the order of minutes to hours. The human and material damage caused by these floods were still high. The study area encompasses three watersheds in semi-arid and arid south and Algeria. THERE are pools of Chott-Melghir (68,751 km2), highland Constantine-07 (9578 km2) and El Hodna-05 basin (25,843 km2). The total area of this zone is about 104,500km2.Studies of protection against floods and design studies of hydraulic structures (spillway, storm basin, etc.) require the raw data which is often unknown in several places particularly at ungauged wadis of these areas. This makes it very difficult to schedules and managers working in the field of hydraulic studies. The objective of this study and propose a methodology for determining flows in the absence of observations in the semi-arid and arid south eastern Algeria. The objective of the study is to propose a methodology for these areas of flood calculation for ungauged rivers.

Keywords: flood, watershed, specific flow, coefficient of variation, arid

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: Stella C. Okenu, Stephen O. Adikwu, Martins E. Okoro

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The geothermal energy resource potential of the Lower Benue Trough (LBT) in Nigeria was evaluated in this study using spectral analysis of high-resolution aeromagnetic (HRAM) data. The reduced to the equator aeromagnetic data was divided into sixteen (16) overlapping blocks, and each of the blocks was analyzed to obtain the radial averaged power spectrum which enabled the computation of the top and centroid depths to magnetic sources. The values were then used to assess the Curie Point Depth (CPD), geothermal gradients, and heat flow variations in the study area. Results showed that CPD varies from 7.03 to 18.23 km, with an average of 12.26 km; geothermal gradient values vary between 31.82 and 82.50°C/km, with an average of 51.21°C/km, while heat flow variations range from 79.54 to 206.26 mW/m², with an average of 128.02 mW/m². Shallow CPD zones that run from the eastern through the western and southwestern parts of the study area correspond to zones of high geothermal gradient values and high subsurface heat flow distributions. These areas signify zones associated with anomalous subsurface thermal conditions and are therefore recommended for detailed geothermal energy exploration studies.

Keywords: geothermal energy, curie-point depth, geothermal gradient, heat flow, aeromagnetic data, LBT

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Katia C. Bortoletto, Maria Isabel C. de Freitas, Rodrigo B. N. de Oliveira

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The environmental vulnerability studies are essential for priority actions to the reduction of disasters risk. The aim of this study is to analyze the socio-environmental vulnerability obtained through a Census survey, followed by both a statistical analysis (PCA/SPSS/IBM) and a spatial analysis by GIS (ArcGis/ESRI), taking as a case study the Municipality of Caraguatatuba-SP, Brazil. In the municipal development plan analysis the emphasis was given to the Special Zone of Social Interest (ZEIS), the Urban Expansion Zone (ZEU) and the Environmental Protection Zone (ZPA). For the mapping of the social and environmental vulnerabilities of the study area the exposure of people (criticality) and of the place (support capacity) facing disaster risk were obtained from the 2010 Census from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Considering the criticality, the variables of greater influence were related to literate persons responsible for the household and literate persons with 5 or more years of age; persons with 60 years or more of age and income of the person responsible for the household. In the Support Capacity analysis, the predominant influence was on the good household infrastructure in districts with low population density and also the presence of neighborhoods with little urban infrastructure and inadequate housing. The results of the comparative analysis show that the areas with high and very high vulnerability classes cover the classes of the ZEIS and the ZPA, whose zoning includes: Areas occupied by low-income population, presence of children and young people, irregular occupations and land suitable to urbanization but underutilized. The presence of zones of urban sprawl (ZEU) in areas of high to very high socio-environmental vulnerability reflects the inadequate use of the urban land in relation to the spatial distribution of the population and the territorial infrastructure, which favors the increase of disaster risk. It can be concluded that the study allowed observing the convergence between the vulnerability analysis and the classified areas in urban zoning. The occupation of areas unsuitable for housing due to its characteristics of risk was confirmed, thus concluding that the methodologies applied are agile instruments to subsidize actions to the reduction disasters risk.

Keywords: socio-environmental vulnerability, urban zoning, reduction disasters risk, methodologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Shuailing Cui, Nakajiam Naoto

Abstract:

The tourism industry has experienced significant growth worldwide since the end of World War II. Tourists are drawn to suburban areas during weekends and holidays to explore historical and cultural heritage sites. Since the 1970s, there has been a resurgence in population growth in metropolitan areas, which has fueled the demand for suburban tourism and facilitated its development. The construction of infrastructure, such as railway lines and arterial roads, has also supported the growth of tourism. Tourists engaging in various activities can have a significant impact on the destinations they visit. Tourism has not only affected the local economy but has also begun to alter the social structures, culture, and lifestyle of the destinations visited. In addition, the growing number of tourists has affected the local commercial structure and daily life of suburban residents. Therefore, there is a need to figure out how tourism activities influence the residential environment of the tourist destination and how this influence changes over time. This study aims to analyze the transformation of the relationship between tourism activities and the residential environment in the Naka-Uji area of Uji City, Kyoto Prefecture. Specifically, it investigates how the growth of the tourism industry has influenced the local residential environment and how this influence has changed over time. The findings of the study indicate that the growth of tourism in the Naka-Uji area has had both positive and negative effects on the local residential environment. On the one hand, the tourism industry has created job opportunities and improved local economic conditions. On the other hand, it has also caused environmental degradation, particularly in terms of increased traffic and the construction of parking lots. The study also found that the development of the tourism industry has influenced the social structures, culture, and lifestyle of residents. For instance, the increase in the number of tourists has led to changes in the commercial structure and daily life of suburban residents. The study highlights the importance of collaboration and shared benefits among stakeholders in tourism development, particularly in terms of preserving the cultural and natural heritage of tourist destinations while promoting sustainable development. Overall, this study contributes to the growing body of research on the impact of tourism on suburban areas. It provides insights into the complex relationships between tourism, the natural environment, the local economy, and residential life and emphasizes the need for sustainable tourism development in suburban areas. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers, urban planners, and other stakeholders involved in promoting regional revitalization and sustainable tourism development.

Keywords: tourism, residential environment, suburban area, metropolis

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Authors: Shuailing CUI, Nakajima Naoto

Abstract:

The tourism industry has experienced significant growth worldwide since the end of World War II. Tourists are drawn to suburban areas during weekends and holidays to explore historical and cultural heritage sites. Since the 1970s, there has been a resurgence in population growth in metropolitan areas, which has fueled the demand for suburban tourism and facilitated its development. The construction of infrastructure, such as railway lines and arterial roads, has also supported the growth of tourism. Tourists engaging in various activities can have a significant impact on the destinations they visit. Tourism has not only affected the local economy but has also begun to alter the social structures, culture, and lifestyle of the destinations visited. In addition, the growing number of tourists has affected the local commercial structure and daily life of suburban residents. Therefore, there is a need to figure out how tourism activities influence the residential environment of the tourist destination and how this influence changes over time. This study aims to analyze the transformation of the relationship between tourism activities and the residential environment in the Naka-Uji area of Uji City, Kyoto Prefecture. Specifically, it investigates how the growth of the tourism industry has influenced the local residential environment and how this influence has changed over time. The findings of the study indicate that the growth of tourism in the Naka-Uji area has had both positive and negative effects on the local residential environment. On the one hand, the tourism industry has created job opportunities and improved local economic conditions. On the other hand, it has also caused environmental degradation, particularly in terms of increased traffic and the construction of parking lots. The study also found that the development of the tourism industry has influenced the social structures, culture, and lifestyle of residents. For instance, the increase in the number of tourists has led to changes in the commercial structure and daily life of suburban residents. The study highlights the importance of collaboration and shared benefits among stakeholders in tourism development, particularly in terms of preserving the cultural and natural heritage of tourist destinations while promoting sustainable development. Overall, this study contributes to the growing body of research on the impact of tourism on suburban areas. It provides insights into the complex relationships between tourism, the natural environment, the local economy, and residential life, and emphasizes the need for sustainable tourism development in suburban areas. The findings of this study have important implications for policymakers, urban planners, and other stakeholders involved in promoting regional revitalization and sustainable tourism development.

Keywords: tourism, residential environment, suburban area, metropolis

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Authors: Asim Abbasi, Amer Habib, Sajid Hussain, Muhammad Sufyan, Iqra, Hasnain Sajjad

Abstract:

Except for few scattered cases, powdery mildew disease was not a big problem for watermelon in the past but with the outbreaks of its pathotypes, races 1W and 2W, this disease becomes a serious issue all around the globe. The severe outbreak of this disease also increased the rate of fungicide application for its proper management. Twelve varieties of watermelon were screened in Research Area of Department of Plant pathology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad to check the incidence of powdery mildew disease. Disease inoculum was prepared and applied with the help of foliar spray method. Fungicides and plants extracts were also applied after the disease incidence. Percentage leaf surface area diseased was assessed visually with a modified Horsfall-Barratt scale. The results of the experiment revealed that among all varieties, WT2257 and Zcugma F1 were highly resistant showing less than 5% disease incidence while Anar Kali and Sugar baby were highly susceptible with disease incidence of more than 65%. Among botanicals neem extract gave best results with disease incidence of less than 20%. Besides neem, all other botanicals also gave significant control of powdery mildew disease than the untreated check. In case of fungicides, Gemstar showed least disease incidence i.e. < 10%, however besides control maximum disease incidence was observed in Curzate (> 30%).

Keywords: botanicals, fungicides, pathotypes, powdery mildew

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Authors: Moses Oghenenyoreme Eyankware, Christian Ogubuchi Ede

Abstract:

Groundwater is the principal source for various uses in this study area. The quality and availability of groundwater depend on rock formation within the study area. To effectively study the quality of groundwater, 24 groundwater samples were collected. The study was aimed at investigating the hydrogeochemistry of groundwater, and additionally its suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes. The following parameters were analyzed using the American Public Health Association standard method: pH, turbidity, Ec, TDS, Mg2+, SO42-, NO3¯, Cl-, HCO3¯, K+, Na2+ and Ca2+. Results obtained from Water Quality Index revealed that the groundwater sample fell within good water quality that implies that groundwater is considered fit for drinking purposes. Deduced results obtained from irrigation indices revealed that Permeability Index (PI), Soluble Sodium Percentage (SSP), Sodium Percentage (Na %), Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), Kelly Ratio (KR), Magnesium Hazard (MH) ranges from 0.00 to 0.01, 4.04 to 412.9, 0.63 to 257.7, 0.15 to 2.34, 0.09 to 2.57 and 6.84 to 84.55 respectively. Findings from Total hardness revealed that groundwater fell within soft, moderately hard and hard categories. Estimated results obtained from CSMR, RI and LSI showed that groundwater showed corrosion tendency, salinization influenced groundwater at certain sampling points and chloride and sulfate unlikely to interfere with natural formation film.

Keywords: water, quality, suitability, anthropogenic, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Andy Obinna Ibeje

Abstract:

In this study, the erodibility indices and some soil properties of some cassava farms in selected areas of Abia and Imo States were investigated. This study involves taking measurements of some soil parameters such as permeability, soil texture and particle size analysis from which the erodibility indices were compared. Results showed that soils of the areas are very sandy. The results showed that Isiukwuato with index of 72 has the highest erodibility index. The results also showed that Arondizuogu with index of 34 has the least erodibility index. The results revealed that soil erodibility (k) values varied from 34 to 72. Nkporo has the highest sand content; Inyishie has the least silt content. The result indicates that there were respectively strong inverse relationship between clay and silt contents and erodibility index. On the other hand, sand, organic matter and moisture contents as well as soil permeability has significantly high positive correlation with soil erodibility and it can be concluded that particle size distribution is a major finger print on the erodibility index of soil in the study area. It is recommended that safe cultural practices like crop rotation, matching and adoption of organic farming techniques be incorporated into farming communities of Abia and Imo States in order to stem the advances of erosion in the study area.

Keywords: erodibility, indices, soil, sand

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Authors: Kaushika Vinotheeswaran

Abstract:

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), located in Ontario, Canada, is among the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in North America. Rapid urbanization within the GTA has led to increased imperviousness and surface runoff, contributing to wetland loss. Wetland cover and land cover data from the Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System were analyzed to characterize wetland loss to built-up areas and land conversions between 2005 and 2015, evaluating the extent of urbanization-induced wetland loss. Spatial analysis revealed a significant increase in the number of wetlands lost from 2005 to 2011 compared to the period from 2011 to 2015, with these losses attributed to increased urban expansions within the GTA. Non-wetland conversions, such as agricultural and impervious built-up uses to support urban expansions, played a significant role in wetland loss. Current approaches to wetland policy implementation and land-use planning strategies do not effectively identify or mitigate damage to wetlands in advance of development, resulting in significant wetland loss. Therefore, wetland conservation policies must be re-evaluated to address gaps in policy practice and focus on minimizing wetland loss.

Keywords: wetland loss, urbanization, impervious, pervious, wetland conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Leszek Szpakowski, Daniel Celiński, Sławomir Pilip, Grzegorz Michalak

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The aim of the study was to analyse the usefulness of the 'E-rescuer' pilot project planned to be implemented in a chosen area of Eastern Poland in the cases of suspected sudden cardiac arrests in the extra-urban areas. Inventing an application allowing to dispatch simultaneously both Medical Emergency Teams and the E-rescuer to the place of the accident is the crucial assumption of the mentioned pilot project. The E-rescuer is defined to be the trained person able to take effective basic life support and to use automated external defibrillator. Having logged in using a smartphone, the E-rescuer's readiness is reported online to provide cardiopulmonary resuscitation exactly at the given location. Due to the accurately defined location of the E-rescuer, his arrival time is possible to be precisely fixed, and the substantive support through the displayed algorithms is capable of being provided as well. Having analysed the medical records in the years 2015-2016, cardiopulmonary resuscitation was considered to be effective when an early indication of circulation was provided, and the patient was taken to hospital. In the mentioned term, there were 2.291 cases of a sudden cardiac arrest. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation was taken in 621 patients in total including 205 people in the urban area and 416 in the extra-urban areas. The effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the extra-urban areas was much lower (33,8%) than in the urban (50,7%). The average ambulance arrival time was respectively longer in the extra-urban areas, and it was 12,3 minutes while in the urban area 3,3 minutes. There was no significant difference in the average age of studied patients - 62,5 and 64,8 years old. However, the average ambulance arrival time was 7,6 minutes for effective resuscitations and 10,5 minutes for ineffective ones. Hence, the ambulance arrival time is a crucial factor influencing on the effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, especially in the extra-urban areas where it is much longer than in the urban. The key role of trained E-rescuers being nearby taking basic life support before the ambulance arrival can effectively support Emergency Medical Services System in Poland.

Keywords: basic life support, bystander, effectiveness, resuscitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Yuyun Wabula, B. J. Dewancker

Abstract:

In the past decade, the social networking app has been growing very rapidly. Geolocation data is one of the important features of social media that can attach the user's location coordinate in the real world. This paper proposes the use of geolocation data from the Twitter social media application to gain knowledge about urban dynamics, especially on human mobility behavior. This paper aims to explore the relation between geolocation Twitter with the existence of people in the urban area. Firstly, the study will analyze the spread of people in the particular area, within the city using Twitter social media data. Secondly, we then match and categorize the existing place based on the same individuals visiting. Then, we combine the Twitter data from the tracking result and the questionnaire data to catch the Twitter user profile. To do that, we used the distribution frequency analysis to learn the visitors’ percentage. To validate the hypothesis, we compare it with the local population statistic data and land use mapping released by the city planning department of Makassar local government. The results show that there is the correlation between Twitter geolocation and questionnaire data. Thus, integration the Twitter data and survey data can reveal the profile of the social media users.

Keywords: geolocation, Twitter, distribution analysis, human mobility

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Sher Mohammed, Purushottam Lal, Pawan K. Kasera

Abstract:

The Thar Desert of Rajasthan covers a wide geographical area spreading between 23.3° to 30.12°, North latitude and 69.3◦ to 76◦ Eastern latitudes; having a unique spectrum of arid zone vegetation. This desert is spreading over 12 districts having a rich source of economically important/threatened plant diversity interacting and growing with adverse climatic conditions of the area. Due to variable geological, physiographic, climatic, edaphic and biotic factors, the arid zone medicinal flora exhibit a wide collection of angiosperm families. The herbal diversity of this arid region is medicinally important in household remedies among tribal communities as well as in traditional systems. The on-going increasing disturbances in natural ecosystems are due to climatic and biological, including anthropogenic factors. The unique flora and subsequently dependent faunal diversity of the desert ecosystem is losing its biotic potential. A large number of plants have no future unless immediate steps are taken to arrest the causes, leading to their biological improvement. At present the potential loss in ecological amplitude of various genera and species is making several plant species as red listed plants of arid zone vegetation such as Commmiphora wightii, Tribulus rajasthanensis, Calligonum polygonoides, Ephedra foliata, Leptadenia reticulata, Tecomella undulata, Blepharis sindica, Peganum harmala, Sarcostoma vinimale, etc. Mostly arid zone species are under serious pressure against prevailing ecosystem factors to continuation their life cycles. Genetic, molecular, cytological, biochemical, metabolic, reproductive, germination etc. are the several points where the floral diversity of the arid zone area is facing severe ecological influences. So, there is an urgent need to conserve them. There are several opportunities in the field to carry out remarkable work at particular levels to protect the native plants in their natural habitat instead of only their in vitro multiplication.

Keywords: ecology, evaluation, xerophytes, economically, threatened plants, conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Seval Kizildag, Ozge Can Aran

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The effective intervention of counselors’ in conflict between spouses may be effective in increasing the quality of marital relationship. At this point, it is necessary for counselors to consider their own value systems at first and then reflect this correctly to the counseling process. For this reason, it is primarily important to determine the needs of counselors. Starting from this point of view, in this study, it is aimed to reveal the perspective of counselor candidates about the universal values in marriage relation. The study group of the survey was formed by sampling, which is one of the prospective sampling methods. As a criterion being a candidate for counseling area and having knowledge of the concepts of the Marriage and Family Counseling course is based, because, that candidate students have a comprehensive knowledge of the field and that students have mastered the concepts of marriage and family counseling will strengthen the findings of this study. For this reason, 61 counselor candidates, 32 (52%) female and 29 (48%) male counselor candidates, who were about to graduate from a university in south-east Turkey and who took a Marriage and Family Counseling course, voluntarily participated in the study. The average age of counselor candidates’ is 23. At the same time, 70 % of the parents of these candidates brought about their marriage through arranged marriage, 13% through flirting, 8% by relative marriage, 7% through friend circles and 2% by custom. The data were collected through Demographic Information Form and a form titled ‘Universal Values Form in Marriage’ which consists of six questions prepared by researchers. After the data were transferred to the computer, necessary statistical evaluations were made on the data. The qualitative data analysis was used on the data which was obtained in the study. The universal values which include six basic values covering trustworthiness, respect, responsibility, fairness, caring, citizenship, determined under the name as ‘six pillar of character’ are used as base and frequency values of the data were calculated trough content analysis. According to the findings of the study, while the value which most students find the most important value in marriage relation is being reliable, the value which they find the least important is to have citizenship consciousness. Also in this study, it is found out that counselor candidates associate the value of being trustworthiness ‘loyalty’ with (33%) as the highest in terms of frequency, the value of being respect ‘No violence’ with (23%), the value of responsibility ‘in the context of gender roles and spouses doing their owns’ with (35%) the value of being fairness ‘impartiality’ with (25%), the value of being caring ‘ being helpful’ with (25%) and finally as to the value of citizenship ‘love of country’ with (14%) and’ respect for the laws ‘ with (14%). It is believed that these results of the study will contribute to the arrangements for the development of counseling skills for counselor candidates regarding value in marriage and family counseling curricula.

Keywords: caring, citizenship, counselor candidate, fairness, marriage relationship, respect, responsibility, trustworthiness, value system

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Farida, M. Shehu, Shehu U. R. Aliyu

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Access to finance has been recognized in the literature as one of the major impediments confronting small scale businesses (SSBs). This largely arises due to high lending rate, religious inclinations, collateral, etc. Islamic mode finance operates under Profit and Loss Sharing (PLS) arrangement between a borrower (business owner) and a lender (Islamic bank). This paper empirically assesses the determinants of predisposition of small scale business operators in Fagge local government area, Kano State, Nigeria, towards the PLS. Cross-sectional data from a sample of 291 small scale business operators was analyzed using logit and probit regression models. Empirical results reveal that while awareness and religion inclination positively drive interest towards the PLS, lending rate and collateral work against it. The paper, therefore, strongly recommends more advocacy campaigns and setting up of more Islamic banks in the country to cater for the financing and religious needs of SSBs in the study area.

Keywords: Islamic finance, logit and probit models, profit and loss sharing small scale businesses, finance, commerce

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: T. K. Dutta, K. K. Das, N. Dutta

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The salient feature of this paper is primarily concerned with Ricker’s population model: f(x)=x e^(r(1-x/k)), where r is the control parameter and k is the carrying capacity, and some fruitful results are obtained with the following objectives: 1) Determination of bifurcation values leading to a chaotic region, 2) Development of Statistical Methods and Analysis required for the measure of Fractal dimensions, 3) Calculation of various fractal dimensions. These results also help that the invariant probability distribution on the attractor, when it exists, provides detailed information about the long-term behavior of a dynamical system. At the end, some open problems are posed for further research.

Keywords: Feigenbaum universality, chaos, Lyapunov exponent, fractal dimensions

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Authors: Sultan Ayoub Meo

Abstract:

Environmental pollution is a highly challenging global concern of the 21st century and is a major cause of various communicable and non-communicable diseases. We investigate the impact of air pollution on "lung function, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, and cognitive function"in a group of one hundred young students studying in a traffic-polluted school. The students wereselected based on their age, gender, height, weight, and ethnicity. After the clinical history, one hundred students were recruited from the schoolnear and away from the polluted areas. The lung and cognitive functions were recorded. The results revealed that lung and cognitive function parameters were reduced in groups of students studying in a school located in a traffic-polluted area compared to thosestudying in a schoolsituated away from the traffic-polluted area. Environmental pollution impairs students' lung and cognitive functions studying in schools located within traffic-polluted areas. The health officials and policymakers establish strategies to minimize environmental pollution and its allied health hazards. Prof. Sultan Ayoub Meo, MD, Ph.D Professor, Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Saudi Arabia Email. [email protected] / [email protected]

Keywords: environmental pOllution, lung physiology, cognitive functions, air pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: H. Starzyczna, M. Stoklasa, K. Matusinska

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This article deals with the benefits of regional brands for companies in the Czech Republic. Research was focused on finding out the expected and actual benefits of regional brands for companies. The data were obtained by questionnaire survey and analysed by IBM SPSS. Representative sample of 204 companies was created. The research analysis disclosed the expected benefits that the regional brand should bring to companies. But the actual benefits are much worse. The statistical testing of hypotheses revealed that the benefits depend on the region of origin, which surprised both us and the regional coordinators.

Keywords: Brand, regional brands, product protective branding programs, brand benefits

Procedia PDF Downloads 340