Search results for: robust model predictive control
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 26740

Search results for: robust model predictive control

4450 Physiological Responses of Dominant Grassland Species to Different Grazing Intensity in Inner Mongolia, China

Authors: Min Liu, Jirui Gong, Qinpu Luo, Lili Yang, Bo Yang, Zihe Zhang, Yan Pan, Zhanwei Zhai

Abstract:

Grazing disturbance is one of the important land-use types that affect plant growth and ecosystem processes. In order to study the responses of dominant species to grazing in the semiarid temperate grassland of Inner Mongolia, we set five grazing intensity plots: a control and four levels of grazing (light (LG), moderate (MG), heavy (HG) and extreme heavy grazing (EHG)) to test the morphological and physiological responses of Stipa grandis, Leymus chinensis at the individual levels. With the increase of grazing intensity, Stipa grandis and Leymus chinensis both exhibited reduced plant height, leaf area, stem length and aboveground biomass, showing a significant dwarf phenomenon especially in HG and EHG plots. The photosynthetic capacity decreased along the grazing gradient. Especially in the MG plot, the two dominant species have lowest net photosynthetic rate (Pn) and water use efficiency (WUE). However, in the HG and EHG plots, the two species had high light saturation point (LSP) and low light compensation point (LCP), indicating they have high light-use efficiency. They showed a stimulation of compensatory photosynthesis to the remnant leaves as compared with grasses in MG plot. For Leymus chinensis, the lipid peroxidation level did not increase with the low malondialdehyde (MDA) content even in the EHG plot. It may be due to the high enzymes activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and peroxidase (POD) to reduce the damage of reactive oxygen species. Meanwhile, more carbohydrate was stored in the leaf of Leymus chinensis to provide energy to the plant regrowth. On the contrary, Stipa grandis showed the high level of lipid peroxidation especially in the HG and EHG plots with decreased antioxidant enzymes activity. The soluble protein content did not change significantly in the different plots. Therefore, with the increase of grazing intensity, plants changed morphological and physiological traits to defend themselves effectively to herbivores. Leymus chinensis is more resistant to grazing than Stipa grandis in terms of tolerance traits, particularly under heavy grazing pressure.

Keywords: antioxidant enzymes activity, grazing density, morphological responses, photosynthesis

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4449 The Beneficial Effects of Hydrotherapy for Recovery from Team Sport – A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Trevor R. Higgins

Abstract:

To speed/enhance recovery from sport, cold water immersion (CWI) and contrast water therapy (CWT) have become common practice within the high-level team sport. Initially, research into CWI and CWT protocols and recovery was sparse; athletes relied solely upon an anecdotal support. However, an increase into recovery research has occurred. A number of reviews have subsequently been conducted to clarify scientific evidence. However, as the nature of physiological stress and training status of participants will impact on results, an opportunity existed to narrow the focus to a more exacting review evaluating hydrotherapy for recovery in a team sport. A Boolean logic [AND] keyword search of databases was conducted: SPORTDiscus; AMED; CINAHL; MEDLINE. Data was extracted and the standardized mean differences were calculated with 95% CI. The analysis of pooled data was conducted using a random-effect model, with Heterogeneity assessed using I2. 23 peer reviewed papers (n=606) met the criteria. Meta-analyses results indicated CWI was likely beneficial for recovery at 24h (Countermovement Jump (CMJ): p= 0.05, CI -0.004 to 0.578; All-out sprint: p=0.02, -0.056 to 0.801; DOMS: p=0.08, CI -0.092 to 1.936) and at 72h (accumulated sprinting: p=0.07, CI -0.062 to 1.209; DOMS: p=0.09, CI -0.121 to 1.555) following team sport. Whereas CWT was likely beneficial for recovery at 1h (CMJ: p= 0.07, CI -0.004 to 0.863) and at 48h (fatigue: p=0.04, CI 0.013 to 0.942) following team sport. Athlete’s perceptions of muscle soreness and fatigue are enhanced with CWI and/or CWT, however even though CWI and CWT were beneficial in attenuating decrements in neuromuscular performance 24 hours following team sport, indications are those benefits were no longer Sydney evident 48 hours following team sport.

Keywords: cold water immersion, contrast water therapy, recovery, team sport

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4448 Impact of Relaxing Incisions on Maxillofacial Growth Following Sommerlad–Furlow Modified Technique in Patients with Isolated Cleft Palate: A Preliminary Comparative Study

Authors: Sadam Elayah, Yang Li, Bing Shi

Abstract:

Background: The impact of relaxing incisions on maxillofacial growth during palatoplasty remains a topic of debate, and further research is needed to understand its effects fully. Thus, the current study is the first long-term study that aimed to assess the maxillofacial growth of patients with isolated cleft palate following the Sommerlad-Furlow modified (S.F) technique and to estimate the impact of relaxing incisions on maxillofacial growth following S.F technique in patients with isolated cleft palate. Methods: A total of 85 participants, 55 patients with non-syndromic isolated soft and hard cleft palate underwent primary palatoplasty with our technique (30 patients received the Sommerlad-Furlow modified technique without relaxing incision (S.F+RI group), and 25 received Sommerlad-Furlow modified technique without relaxing (S.F-RI group) with no significant difference found between them regarding the cleft type, cleft width, and age at repair. While the other 30 were normal participants with skeletal class I pattern (C group). The control group was matched with the study group in number, age, and sex. All the study variables were measured using stable landmarks, including 12 linear and 10 angular variants. Results: The mean ages at collection of cephalograms were 6.03±0.80 in the S.F+RI group, 5.96±0.76 in the S.F-RI group, and 5.91±0.87 in the C group. Regarding cranial base, the results showed no statistically significant differences between the three groups in S-N and S-N-Ba. The S.F+R.I group had a significantly shorter S-Ba than the S.F-R.I & C groups (P= 0.01). However, there was no statistically significant difference between the S.F-R.I & C groups (P=0.80). Regarding the skeletal maxilla, there was no significant difference between the S.F+R.I and S.F-R.I groups in all linear measurements (N-ANS, S- PM & SN-PP ) except Co-A, the S.F+R.I group had significantly shorter Co-A than the S.F-R.I & C groups (P= <0.01). While the angular measurement, S.F+R.I group had significantly less SNA angle than the S.F-R.I & C groups (P= <0.01). Regarding mandibular bone, there were no statistically significant differences in all linear and angular mandibular measurements between the S.F+R.I and S.F-R.I groups. Regarding intermaxillary relation, the S.F+R.I group had significant differences in Co-Gn - Co-A and ANB compared to the S.F-R.I & C groups (P= <0.01). There was no statistically significant difference in PP-MP among the three groups. Conclusion: As a preliminary report, the Sommerlad-Furlow modified technique without relaxing incisions was found to have good maxillary positioning in the face and a satisfactory intermaxillary relationship compared to the Sommerlad-Furlow modified technique with relaxing incisions.

Keywords: relaxing incisions, cleft palate, palatoplasty, maxillofacial growth

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4447 Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Climate Bulk Materials Production in Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Authors: Mehri Sadat Alavinasab Ashgezari, Gholam Reza Nabi Bidhendi, Fatemeh Sadat Alavinasab Ashkezari

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Atmospheric aerosol loading (AAL) from anthropogenic sources is an evidence in industrial development. The accelerated trends in material consumption at the global scale in recent years demonstrate consumption paradigms sensible to the planetary boundaries (PB). This paper is a statistical approach on recognizing the path of climate-relevant bulk materials production (CBMP) of steel, cement and plastics to AAL via an updated and validated spatiotemporal distribution. The methodology of statistical analysis used the most updated regional or global databases or instrumental technologies. This corresponded to a selection of processes and areas capable for tracking AAL within the last decade, analyzing the most validated data while leading to explore the behavior functions or models. The results also represented a correlation within socio economic metabolism idea between the materials specified as macronutrients of society and AAL as a PB with an unknown threshold. The selected country contributors of China, India, US and the sample country of Iran show comparable cumulative AAL values vs to the bulk materials domestic extraction and production rate in the study period of 2012 to 2022. Generally, there is a tendency towards gradual descend in the worldwide and regional aerosol concentration after 2015. As of our evaluation, a considerable share of human role, equivalent 20% from CBMP, is for the main anthropogenic species of aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon and organic particulate matters too. This study, in an innovative approach, also explores the potential role of AAL control mechanisms from the economy sectors where ordered and smoothing loading trends are accredited through the disordered phenomena of CBMP and aerosol precursor emissions. The equilibrium states envisioned is an approval to the well-established theory of Spin Glasses applicable in physical system like the Earth and here to AAL.

Keywords: atmospheric aeroso loading, material flows, climate bulk materials, industrial ecology

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4446 Urban Networks as Model of Sustainable Design

Authors: Agryzkov Taras, Oliver Jose L., Tortosa Leandro, Vicent Jose

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This paper aims to demonstrate how the consideration of cities as a special kind of complex network, called urban network, may lead to the use of design tools coming from network theories which, in fact, results in a quite sustainable approach. There is no doubt that the irruption in contemporary thought of Gaia as an essential political agent proposes a narrative that has been extended to the field of creative processes in which, of course, the activity of Urban Design is found. The rationalist paradigm is put in crisis, and from the so-called sciences of complexity, its way of describing reality and of intervening in it is questioned. Thus, a new way of understanding reality surges, which has to do with a redefinition of the human being's own place in what is now understood as a delicate and complex network. In this sense, we know that in these systems of connected and interdependent elements, the influences generated by them originate emergent properties and behaviors for the whole that, individually studied, would not make sense. We believe that the design of cities cannot remain oblivious to these principles, and therefore this research aims to demonstrate the potential that they have for decision-making in the urban environment. Thus, we will see an example of action in the field of public mobility, another example in the design of commercial areas, and a third example in the field of redensification of sprawl areas, in which different aspects of network theory have been applied to change the urban design. We think that even though these actions have been developed in European cities, and more specifically in the Mediterranean area in Spain, the reflections and tools could have a broader scope of action.

Keywords: graphs, complexity sciences, urban networks, urban design

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4445 Effects of Soil Organic Amendment Types and Rates on Growth and Yield of Amaranthus cruentus, Southern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria

Authors: S. Yussuf Abdulmaliq

Abstract:

Experiment was conducted for two years (2013 and 2014) at Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, Lapai, Teaching and Research Farm to study the effects of soil organic amendment types and rates on soil chemical fertility improvement, growth and yield of Amarathus cruentus in the southern guinea savannah, lapai, Niger state, Nigeria. Soil and manure samples were collected and analysed for physical and chemical components. The experiments were laid out in 3 x 4 factorial in a randomized complete block design (RCBD). Consisting of three (3) levels of soil amendment types (Poultry manure, goat manure and cowdung) and four (4) levels of amendment rates (0, 6, 12 and 18 t ha-1). Data collected include plant height/plant (cm), number of leaves/plant, leaf area/ plant (cm2) at 2, 4, 6 and 8WAT, fresh vegetable yield/plant, fresh vegetable yield/plot and fresh vegetable yield in tons ha-1. The result obtained showed that, Amaranthus cruentus height, number of leaves and leaf area were not significantly affected by the type of organic amendment and rates at 2WAT in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons. However, at 4, 6 and 8 WAT, significant differences were observed among the types of amendment and their rates. Application of poultry manure as soil amendment supported taller, large number of leaves and wider leaf area, and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05) which was closely followed by goat manure in the two (2) cropping seasons. In addition, the application of 18 t ha-1 was superior to 12, 6 and the control by producing tallest amaranthus plants, higher number of leaves, wider leaf area and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05). In conclusion, the use of 18 t ha-1poultry manure is therefore recommended as soil amendment for Amaranthus cruentus in southern guinea savannah of Nigeria.

Keywords: Amaranthus cruentus, cowdung, goat manure, poultry manure, soil amendment

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4444 Using Mind Map Technique to Enhance Medical Vocabulary Retention for the First Year Nursing Students at a Higher Education Institution

Authors: Nguyen Quynh Trang, Nguyễn Thị Hông Nhung

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The study aimed to identify the effectiveness of using the mind map technique to enhance students’ medical vocabulary retention among a group of students at a higher education institution - Thai Nguyen University of Medicine and Pharmacy during the first semester of the school year 2022-2023. The research employed a quasi-experimental method, exploring primary sources such as questionnaires and the analyzed results of pre-and-post tests. Almost teachers and students showed high preferences for the implementation of the mind map technique in language teaching and learning. Furthermore, results from the pre-and-post tests between the experimental group and control one pointed out that this technique brought back positive academic performance in teaching and learning English. The research findings revealed that there should be more supportive policies to evoke the use of the mind map technique in a pedagogical context. Aim of the Study: The purpose of this research was to investigate whether using mind mapping can help students to enhance nursing students’ medical vocabulary retention and to assess the students’ attitudes toward using mind mapping as a tool to improve their vocabulary. The methodology of the study: The research employed a quasi-experimental method, exploring primary sources such as questionnaires and the analyzed results of pre-and-post tests. The contribution of the study: The research contributed to the innovation of teaching vocabulary methods for English teachers at a higher education institution. Moreover, the research helped the English teachers and the administrators at a university evoke and maintain the motivation of students not only in English classes but also in other subjects. The findings of this research were beneficial to teachers, students, and researchers interested in using mind mapping to teach and learn English vocabulary. The research explored and proved the effectiveness of applying mind mapping in teaching and learning English vocabulary. Therefore, teaching and learning activities were conducted more and more effectively and helped students overcome challenges in remembering vocabulary and creating motivation to learn English vocabulary.

Keywords: medical vocabulary retention, mind map technique, nursing students, medical vocabulary

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4443 Phytochemicals Quatification, Trace Metal Accumulation Pattern and Contamination Risk Assessment of Different Variety of Tomatoes Cultivated on Municipal Waste Sludge Treated Soil

Authors: Mathodzi Nditsheni, Olawole Emmanuel Aina, Joshua Oluwole Olowoyo

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The ever-increasing world population is putting extreme pressure on the already limited agricultural resources for food production. Different soil enhancers were introduced by famers to meet the need of the ever-increasing population demand for food. One of the soil enhancers is the municipal waste sludge. This research investigated the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and levels of phytochemicals in four different tomato varieties cultivated on soil treated with municipal waste sludge in Pretoria, South Africa. Fruits were harvested at maturity and analyzed for trace metals and phytochemicals contents using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) and a High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) respectively. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and phytochemical from different tomato varieties were significant. From the study, Rodade tomato bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of Mn, Cr, Cu and Ni, Roma bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of, Cd, Fe and Pb while Heinz bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of As and Zn. Cherry tomato on the other hand, recorded the lowest concentrations for most metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. The results of the study further showed that phenolic and flavonoids content were higher in the Solanum lycopersicum fruit grown in soils treated with municipal waste sludge. The study also showed that there was an inverse relationship between the levels of trace metals and phytochemicals. The calculated contamination factor values of trace metals like Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were above the safe value of 1 which indicated that the tomato fruits may be unsafe for human consumption. However, the contamination factor values for the remaining trace metals were well below the safe value of 1. From the results obtained either for the control group or the treatment, the tomato varieties used in the study, bioaccumulated the toxic trace metals in their fruits and some of the values obtained were higher than the acceptable limit, which may then imply that the varieties of tomato used in this study bio accumulated the toxic trace metals from the soil, hence care should be taken when these tomato varieties are either cultivated or harvested from polluted areas

Keywords: trace metals, flavonoids, phenolics, waste sludge, tomato, contamination factors

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4442 Numerical Homogenization of Nacre

Authors: M. Arunachalam, M. Pandey

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Nacre, a biological material that forms the inner-layer of sea shells can achieve high toughness and strength by way of staggered arrangement of strong tablets with soft and weak organic interface. Under applied loads the tablets slide over the adjacent tablets, thus generating inelastic deformation and toughness on macroscopic scale. A two dimensional finite element based homogenization methodology is adopted for obtaining the effective material properties of Nacre using a representative volume element (RVE) at finite deformations. In this work, the material behaviour for tablet and interface are assumed to be Isotropic elastic and Isotropic elastic-perfectly plastic with strain softening respectively. Numerical experiments such as uniaxial tension test along X, Y directions and simple shear test are performed on the RVE with uniform displacement and periodic constraints applied at the RVE boundaries to obtain the anisotropic homogenized response and maximum local stresses within each constituents of Nacre. Homogenized material model is then tested for macroscopic structure under three point bending condition and the results obtained are comparable with the results obtained for detailed microstructure based structure, thus homogenization provides a bridge between macroscopic scale and microscopic scale and homogenized material properties obtained from microstructural (RVE) analysis could be used in large scale structural analysis.

Keywords: finite element, homogenization, inelastic deformation, staggered arrangement

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4441 Concepts of Instrumentation Scheme for Thought Transfer

Authors: Rai Sachindra Prasad

Abstract:

Thought is physical force. This has been well recognized but hardly translated visually or otherwise in the sense of its transfer from one individual to another. In the present world of chaos and disorder with yawning gaps between right and wrong thinking individuals, if it is possible to transfer the right thoughts to replace the wrong ones it would indeed be a great achievement in the present situation of the world which is torn with violence with dangerous thoughts of individuals. Moreover, such a possibility would completely remove the barrier of language between two persons, which at times proves to be a great obstacle in realizing a desired purpose. If a proper instrumentation scheme containing appropriate transducers and electronics is designed and implemented to realize this thought ransfer phenomenon, this would prove to be extremely useful when properly used. Considering the advancements already made in recording the nerve impulses in the brain, which are electrical events of very short durations that move along the axon, it is conceivable that this may be used to good effect in implementing the scheme. In such a proposition one shoud consider the roles played by pineal body, pituitary gland and ‘association’ areas. Pioneer students of brain have thought that associations or connections between sensory input and motor output were made in these areas. It is currently believed that rather than being regions of simple sensory-motor connections, the association areas process and integrate sensory information relayed to them from the primary sensory areas of the cortex and from the thalamus, after the information has been processed, it may be sent to motor areas to be acted upon. Again, even though the role played by pineal body is not known fully to neurologists its interconnection with pituitary gland is a matter of great significance to the ‘Rishis’ and; Seers’ s described in Vedas and Puranas- the ancient Holy books of Hindus. If the pineal body is activated through meditation it would control the pituitary gland thereby the individual’s thoughts and acts. Thus, if thoughts can be picked up by special transducers, these can be connected to suitable electronics circuitry to amplify the signals. These signals in the form of electromagnetic waves can then be transmitted using modems for long distance transmission and eventually received by or passed on to a subject of interest through another set of electronics circuit and devices.

Keywords: modems, pituitary gland, pineal body, thought transfer

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4440 Wireless Gyroscopes for Highly Dynamic Objects

Authors: Dmitry Lukyanov, Sergey Shevchenko, Alexander Kukaev

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Modern MEMS gyroscopes have strengthened their position in motion control systems and have led to the creation of tactical grade sensors (better than 15 deg/h). This was achieved by virtue of the success in micro- and nanotechnology development, cooperation among international experts and the experience gained in the mass production of MEMS gyros. This production is knowledge-intensive, often unique and, therefore, difficult to develop, especially due to the use of 3D-technology. The latter is usually associated with manufacturing of inertial masses and their elastic suspension, which determines the vibration and shock resistance of gyros. Today, consumers developing highly dynamic objects or objects working under extreme conditions require the gyro shock resistance of up to 65 000 g and the measurement range of more than 10 000 deg/s. Such characteristics can be achieved by solid-state gyroscopes (SSG) without inertial masses or elastic suspensions, which, for example, can be constructed with molecular kinetics of bulk or surface acoustic waves (SAW). Excellent effectiveness of this sensors production and a high level of structural integration provides basis for increased accuracy, size reduction and significant drop in total production costs. Existing principles of SAW-based sensors are based on the theory of SAW propagation in rotating coordinate systems. A short introduction to the theory of a gyroscopic (Coriolis) effect in SAW is provided in the report. Nowadays more and more applications require passive and wireless sensors. SAW-based gyros provide an opportunity to create one. Several design concepts incorporating reflective delay lines were proposed in recent years, but faced some criticism. Still, the concept is promising and is being of interest in St. Petersburg Electrotechnical University. Several experimental models were developed and tested to find the minimal configuration of a passive and wireless SAW-based gyro. Structural schemes, potential characteristics and known limitations are stated in the report. Special attention is dedicated to a novel method of a FEM modeling with piezoelectric and gyroscopic effects simultaneously taken into account.

Keywords: FEM simulation, gyroscope, OOFELIE, surface acoustic wave, wireless sensing

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4439 Photocatalytic Degradation of Aqueous Organic Pollutant under UV Light Irradiation

Authors: D. Tassalit, N. Chekir, O. Benhabiles, N. A. Laoufi, F. Bentahar

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In the setting of the waters purification, some molecules appear recalcitrant to the traditional treatments. The exploitation of the properties of some catalysts permits to amplify the oxidization performances with ultraviolet radiance and to remove this pollution by a non biological way. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of a photocatalysis oxidation system for organic pollutants treatment using a new reactor design and ZnO/TiO2 as a catalyst under UV light. Oxidative degradation of tylosin by hydroxyl radicals (OH°) was studied in aqueous medium using suspended forms of ZnO and TiO2. The results improve that the treatment was affected by many factors such as flow-rate of solution, initial pollutant concentration and catalyst concentration. The rate equation for the tylosin degradation followed first order kinetics and the rate-constants were determined. The reaction rate fitted well with Langmuir–Hinshelwood model and the removed ratio of tylosin was 97 % in less than 60 minutes. To determine the optimum catalyst loading, a series of experiments were carried out by varying the amount of catalyst from 0.05 to 0.5 g/L. The results demonstrate that the rate of photodegradation is optimum with catalyst loading of 0.1 g/L, reaction flow rate of 3.79 mL/s and solution natural pH. The rate was found to increase with the decrease in tylosin concentration from 30 to 5 mg/L. Therefore, this simple photoreactor design for the removal of organic pollutants has the potential to be used in wastewater treatment.

Keywords: advanced oxidation, photocatalysis, TiO2, ZnO, UV light, pharmaceuticals pollutants, Spiramycin, tylosin, wastewater treatment

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4438 Integrating Microcontroller-Based Projects in a Human-Computer Interaction Course

Authors: Miguel Angel Garcia-Ruiz, Pedro Cesar Santana-Mancilla, Laura Sanely Gaytan-Lugo

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This paper describes the design and application of a short in-class project conducted in Algoma University’s Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) course taught at the Bachelor of Computer Science. The project was based on the Maker Movement (people using and reusing electronic components and everyday materials to tinker with technology and make interactive applications), where students applied low-cost and easy-to-use electronic components, the Arduino Uno microcontroller board, software tools, and everyday objects. Students collaborated in small teams by completing hands-on activities with them, making an interactive walking cane for blind people. At the end of the course, students filled out a Technology Acceptance Model version 2 (TAM2) questionnaire where they evaluated microcontroller boards’ applications in HCI classes. We also asked them about applying the Maker Movement in HCI classes. Results showed overall students’ positive opinions and response about using microcontroller boards in HCI classes. We strongly suggest that every HCI course should include practical activities related to tinkering with technology such as applying microcontroller boards, where students actively and constructively participate in teams for achieving learning objectives.

Keywords: maker movement, microcontrollers, learning, projects, course, technology acceptance

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4437 The Significance of Intellectual Capital and Strategic Orientations on Innovation Capability in Malaysian ICTSMEs

Authors: Juliana Osman, David Gilbert, Caroline Tan

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Innovation capability is recognized as a critical factor that contributes to promoting firm growth and wealth creation. While studies on innovation are in abundance, few empirical studies have been undertaken to examine the relationships of intellectual capital with innovation capability, and research investigating the combinations of strategic orientation dimensions is limited and virtually nothing in regard to the Malaysian context. This research investigates the impact of intellectual capital and three strategic orientations on the innovation capability and firm performance of Malaysian ICT SMEs. Data was collected from 213 firms relating to intellectual capital and the three strategic orientations; market orientation, learning orientation and technology orientation. Using partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to analyse the data, results indicate that while market orientation has a direct negative relationship to firm performance, it is positively related to performance through the mediating effect of innovation capability. Learning orientation and technology orientation are mediated by innovation capability, while intellectual capital was found to be partially mediated by innovation capability. Findings indicate that firm performance is positively and significantly related to innovation capability and that market orientation, learning orientation, technology orientation and intellectual capital are all significant and positively related to innovation capability. The developed model indicates that Malaysian ICT SMEs would perform better with greater emphasis on developing innovation capability through enhancement of intellectual capital and the strategic orientations measured in this study.

Keywords: innovation capability, intellectual capital, strategic orientations, PLS-SEM

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4436 Fabrication of Porous Materials for the Removal of Lead from Waste Water

Authors: Marcia Silva, Jayme Kolarik, Brennon Garthwait, William Lee, Hai-Feng Zhang

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Adsorption of lead by a natural porous material was studied to establish a baseline for the removal of heavy metals from drinking and waste water. Samples were examined under different conditions such as solution pH, solution concentration, solution temperature, and exposure time. New materials with potentially enhanced adsorption properties were developed by functionalizing the surface of the natural porous material to fabricate graphene based coated and sulfide based treated porous material. The functionalized materials were characterized with Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Raman, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) techniques. Solution pH effect on removal efficiency has been investigated in acidic (pH = 4), neutral (pH = 6) and basic (pH = 10) pH levels. All adsorbent materials showed highest adsorption capacities at neutral pH levels. Batch experiment was employed to assess the efficacy for the removal of lead with the sorption kinetics and the adsorption isotherms being determined for the natural and treated porous materials. The addition of graphene-based and sulfide-based materials increased the lead removal capacity of the natural clean porous material. Theoretical calculations confirmed pseudo-second order model as kinetic mechanism for lead adsorption for all adsorbents.

Keywords: heavy metals, ion exchange, adsorption, water remediation

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4435 Assessment of the Impact of Road Transportation Improvement on Rural Development

Authors: Mohammad Mirwais Arghandiwal, Fujita Motohiro, Wisinee Wisetjindawat

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Since 2001, the new government of Afghanistan addressed the improvement of transportation in rural areas as one of the key issues for the country development. This paper thus, aims to show the impotency of transportation in the rural area of Kabul province. A field survey in Kabul Province capital of Afghanistan has been conducted during March, 2015, and 201 questionnaires were collected from four districts named Shakar Dara, Paghman, Char Asyab, and Khak Jabar to investigate the impacts of road transportation on the people’s daily life. The districts had their road projects constructed during the last 3-5 years. The interviewees are chosen randomly from a different category of districts residences. As transportation is one of the most important factors for the development of the communities, during the survey it was very easily to observe a positive effect on the life of people. The improvement on the accessibility has had a positive impact on the land and land price. In this paper, a model is created to show the relationship between different factors and the land price improvement. In the end, a recommendation is presented on the establishment of the community council for a better use and maintenance of road projects. We emphasize on a public and private partnership at a community level in the districts during the construction period too. In addition, the communities should be encouraged on their positive role in the improvement of transportation through their participation and collaboration with the local government.

Keywords: accessibility, Afghanistan, poverty, rural area, transportation development

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4434 Magnetization Studies and Vortex Phase Diagram of Oxygenated YBa₂Cu₃₋ₓAlₓO₆₊δ Single Crystal

Authors: Ashna Babu, Deepshikha Jaiswal Nagar

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Cuprate high-temperature superconductors (HTSCs) have been immensely studied during the past few decades because of their structure which is described as a superlattice of superconducting CuO₂ layers. In particular, YBa₂Cu₃O₆₊δ (YBCO), with its critical temperature of 93 K, has received the most attention due to its well-defined metal stoichiometry and variable oxygen content that determines the carrier doping level. Substitution of metal ions at the Cu site is known to increase the critical current density without destroying superconductivity in YBCO. The construction of vortex phase diagrams is very important for such doped YBCO materials both from a fundamental perspective as well as from a technological perspective. By measuring field-dependent magnetization on annealed single crystals of Al-doped YBCO, YBa₂Cu₃₋ₓAlₓO₆₊δ (Al-YBCO), we were able to observe a second magnetization peak anomaly (SMP) in a very large part of the phase diagram. We were also able to observe the SMP anomaly in temperature-dependent magnetization measurements, the first observation to our knowledge. Critical current densities were calculated using Bean’s critical state model, flux jumps associated with symmetry reorientation of vortex lattice were studied, the oxygen cluster distribution was also analysed, and by incorporating all observations, we made a vortex phase diagram for oxygenated Al-YBCO single crystal.

Keywords: oxygen deficient clusters, second magnetization peak anomaly, flux jumps, vortex phase diagram

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4433 Effect of Velocity Slip on Two Phase Flow in an Eccentric Annular Region

Authors: Umadevi B., Dinesh P. A., Indira. R., Vinay C. V.

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A mathematical model is developed to study the simultaneous effects of particle drag and slip parameter on the velocity as well as rate of flow in an annular cross sectional region bounded by two eccentric cylinders. In physiological flows this phenomena can be observed in an eccentric catheterized artery with inner cylinder wall is impermeable and outer cylinder wall is permeable. Blood is a heterogeneous fluid having liquid phase consisting of plasma in which a solid phase of suspended cells and proteins. Arterial wall gets damaged due to aging and lipid molecules get deposited between damaged tissue cells. Blood flow increases towards the damaged tissues in the artery. In this investigation blood is modeled as two phase fluid as one is a fluid phase and the other is particulate phase. The velocity of the fluid phase and rate of flow are obtained by transforming eccentric annulus to concentric annulus with the conformal mapping. The formulated governing equations are analytically solved for the velocity and rate of flow. The numerical investigations are carried out by varying eccentricity parameter, slip parameter and drag parameter. Enhancement of slip parameter signifies loss of fluid then the velocity and rate of flow will be decreased. As particulate drag parameter increases then the velocity as well as rate flow decreases. Eccentricity facilitates transport of more fluid then the velocity and rate of flow increases.

Keywords: catheter, slip parameter, drag parameter, eccentricity

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4432 Gender Inequality and Human Trafficking

Authors: Kimberly McCabe

Abstract:

The trafficking of women and children for abuse and exploitation is not a new problem under the umbrella of human trafficking; however, over the last decade, the problem has attracted increased attention from international governments and non-profits attempting to reduce victimization and provide services for survivors. Research on human trafficking suggests that the trafficking of human beings is, largely, a symptom of poverty. As the trafficking of human beings may be viewed as a response to the demand for people for various forms of exploitation, a product of poverty, and a consequence of the subordinate positions of women and children in society, it reaches beyond randomized victimization. Hence, human trafficking, and especially the trafficking of women and children, goes beyond the realm of poorness. Therefore, to begin to understand the reasons for the existence of human trafficking, one must identify and consider not only the immediate causes but also those underlying structural determinants that facilitate this form of victimization. Specifically, one must acknowledge the economic, social, and cultural factors that support human trafficking. This research attempts to study human trafficking at the country level by focusing on economic, social, and cultural characteristics. This study focuses on inequality and, in particular, gender inequality as related to legislative attempts to address human trafficking. Within the design of this project is the use of the US State Department’s tier classification system for Trafficking in Persons (TIP) and the USA CIA Fact Sheet of country characteristics for over 150 countries in an attempt to model legal outcomes as related to human trafficking. Results of this research demonstrate the significance of characteristics beyond poverty as related to country-level responses to human trafficking.

Keywords: child trafficking, gender inequality, human trafficking, inequality

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4431 Violence against Children Surveys: Analysis of the Peer-Reviewed Literature from 2009-2019

Authors: Kathleen Cravero, Amanda Nace, Samantha Ski

Abstract:

The Violence Against Children Surveys (VACS) is nationally representative surveys of male and female youth ages 13-24, designed to measure the burden of sexual, physical, and emotional violence experienced in childhood and adolescence. As of 2019, 24 countries implemented or are in the process of implementing a VACS, covering over ten percent of the world’s child population. Since the first article using VACS data from Swaziland was published in 2009, several peer-reviewed articles have been published on the VACS. However, no publications to date have analyzed the breadth of the work and analyzed how the data are represented in the peer-reviewed literature. In this study, we conducted a literature review of all peer-reviewed research that used VACS data or discussed the implementation and methodology of the VACS. The literature review revealed several important findings. Between 2009 and July 2019, thirty-five peer-reviewed articles using VACS data from 12 countries have been published. Twenty of the studies focus on one country, while 15 of the studies focus on two or more countries. Some countries are featured in the literature more than others, for example Kenya (N=14), Malawi (N=12), and Tanzania (N=12). A review of the research by gender demonstrates that research on violence against boys is under-represented. Only two studies specifically focused on boys/young men, while 11 studies focused only on violence against girls. This is despite research which suggests boys and girls experience similar rates of violence. A review of the publications by type of violence revealed significant differences in the types of violence being featured in the literature. Thirteen publications specifically focused on sexual violence, while three studies focused on physical violence, and only one study focused on emotional violence. Almost 70% of the peer-reviewed articles (24 of the 35) were first-authored by someone at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There were very few first authors from VACS countries, which raises questions about who is leveraging the data and the extent to which capacities for data liberation are being developed within VACS countries. The VACS provide an unprecedented amount of information on the prevalence and past-year incidence of violence against children. Through a review of the peer-reviewed literature on the VACS we can begin to identify trends and gaps in how the data is being used as well as identify areas for further research.

Keywords: data to action, global health, implementation science, violence against children surveys

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4430 Fuzzy Inference-Assisted Saliency-Aware Convolution Neural Networks for Multi-View Summarization

Authors: Tanveer Hussain, Khan Muhammad, Amin Ullah, Mi Young Lee, Sung Wook Baik

Abstract:

The Big Data generated from distributed vision sensors installed on large scale in smart cities create hurdles in its efficient and beneficial exploration for browsing, retrieval, and indexing. This paper presents a three-folded framework for effective video summarization of such data and provide a compact and representative format of Big Video Data. In the first fold, the paper acquires input video data from the installed cameras and collect clues such as type and count of objects and clarity of the view from a chunk of pre-defined number of frames of each view. The decision of representative view selection for a particular interval is based on fuzzy inference system, acquiring a precise and human resembling decision, reinforced by the known clues as a part of the second fold. In the third fold, the paper forwards the selected view frames to the summary generation mechanism that is supported by a saliency-aware convolution neural network (CNN) model. The new trend of fuzzy rules for view selection followed by CNN architecture for saliency computation makes the multi-view video summarization (MVS) framework a suitable candidate for real-world practice in smart cities.

Keywords: big video data analysis, fuzzy logic, multi-view video summarization, saliency detection

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4429 Wt1 and FoxL2 Genes Expression Pattern in Mesonephros-Gonad Complexes of Green Sea Turtle (Chelonia mydas) Embryos Incubated in Feminization and Masculinization Temperature

Authors: Fitria D. Ayuningtyas, Anggraini Barlian

Abstract:

Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of TSD (Temperature-dependent Sex Determination, TSD) animals which sex is determined by the egg’s incubation temperature. GSD (Genotypic Sex Determination) homologous genes such as Wilms’ Tumor (Wt1) and Forkhead Box L2 (FoxL2) play a role in TSD animal sex determination process. Wt1 plays a role in both male pathway, as a transcription factor for Sf1 gene and in female pathway, as a transcription factor for Dax1. FoxL2 plays a role specifically in female sex determination, and known as transcriptional factor for Aromatase gene. Until now, research on the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression in C.mydas has not been conducted yet. The aim of this research is to know the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression in Mesonephros-Gonad (MG) complexes of Chelonia mydas embryos incubated in masculinizing temperature (MT) and feminizing temperature (FT). Eggs of C.mydas incubated in 3 different stage of TSP (Thermosensitive Period) at masculinizing temperature (26±10C, MT) and feminizing temperature (31±10C FT). Mesonefros-gonad complexes were isolated at Pre-TSP stage (FT at days 14th, MT at days 24th), TSP stage (FT at days 24th, MT at days 36th) and differentiated stage (FT at days 40th, MT at days 58th). RNA from mesonephros-gonad (MG) complexes were converted into cDNA by RT-PCR process, and the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression is analyzed by quantitative Real Time PCR (qPCR) method, β-actin gene is used as an internal control. The pattern of Wt1 gene expression in Pre-TSP stage was almost the same between MG complexes incubated at MT or FT, while TSP and differentiation stage, the pattern of Wt1 gene expression in MG complexes incubated at MT or FT was increased. Wt1 gene expression of MG complexes that incubated at FT was higher than at MT. There was a difference pattern between Wt1 gene expression in this research compared to the previous research in protein level. It could be assumed that the difference caused by post-transcriptional regulation mechanisms before mRNA of Wt1 gene translated into protein structure. The pattern of FoxL2 gene expression in Pre-TSP stage was almost the same between MG complexes that incubated at MT and FT, and increased in both TSP and differentiated stage. The FoxL2 gene expression in MG complexes that incubated in FT is higher than MT on TSP and differentiated stage. Based on the results of this research, it can be assumed that Wt1 and FoxL2 gene were expressed in MG complexes that incubated both at MT and FT since Pre-TSP stage. The pattern of Wt1 gene expression was increased in every stage of gonadal development, and so do the pattern of FoxL2 gene expression. Wt1 and FoxL2 gene expressions were higher in MG complexes incubated at FT than MT.

Keywords: chelonia mydas, FoxL2, gene expression, TSD, Wt1

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4428 Vehicle Routing Problem with Mixed Fleet of Conventional and Heterogenous Electric Vehicles and Time Dependent Charging Costs

Authors: Ons Sassi, Wahiba Ramdane Cherif-Khettaf, Ammar Oulamara

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a new real-life Heterogenous Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Dependant Charging Costs and a Mixed Fleet (HEVRP-TDMF), in which a set of geographically scattered customers have to be served by a mixed fleet of vehicles composed of a heterogenous fleet of Electric Vehicles (EVs), having different battery capacities and operating costs, and Conventional Vehicles (CVs). We include the possibility of charging EVs in the available charging stations during the routes in order to serve all customers. Each charging station offers charging service with a known technology of chargers and time-dependent charging costs. Charging stations are also subject to operating time windows constraints. EVs are not necessarily compatible with all available charging technologies and a partial charging is allowed. Intermittent charging at the depot is also allowed provided that constraints related to the electricity grid are satisfied. The objective is to minimize the number of employed vehicles and then minimize the total travel and charging costs. In this study, we present a Mixed Integer Programming Model and develop a Charging Routing Heuristic and a Local Search Heuristic based on the Inject-Eject routine with three different insertion strategies. All heuristics are tested on real data instances.

Keywords: charging problem, electric vehicle, heuristics, local search, optimization, routing problem

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4427 Toward the Understanding of Shadow Port's Growth: The Level of Shadow Port

Authors: Chayakarn Bamrungbutr, James Sillitoe

Abstract:

The term ‘shadow port’ is used to describe a port whose markets are dominated by an adjacent port that has a more competitive capability. Recently, researchers have put effort into studying the mechanisms of how a regional port, in the shadow of a nearby predominant port which is a capital city port, can compete and grow. However, such mechanism is still unclear. This study thus focuses on understanding the growth of shadow port and the type of shadow port by using the two capital city ports of Thailand; Bangkok port (the former main port) and Laem Chabang port (the current main port), as the case study. By developing an understanding of the mechanisms of shadow, port could ultimately lead to an increase in the competitiveness. In this study, a framework of opportunity capture (introduced by Magala, 2004) will be used to create a framework for the study of the growth of the selected shadow port. In the process of building this framework, five groups of port development experts, consisting of government, council, academia, logistics provider and industry, will be interviewed. To facilitate this work, the Noticing, Collecting and Thinking model which was developed by Seidel (1998) will be used in an analysis of the dataset. The resulting analysis will be used to classify the type of shadow port. The type of these ports will be a significant factor for developing a feasible strategic guideline for the future management planning of ports, particularly, shadow ports, and then to increase the competitiveness of a nation’s maritime transport industry, and eventually lead to a boost in the national economy.

Keywords: shadow port, Bangkok Port, Laem Chabang Port, port growth

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4426 Examining the Drivers of Sustainable Consumer Behavioural Intention in the Irish Aviation Industry

Authors: Amy Whelan

Abstract:

This paper presents the reader with the overarching research topic: Examining the drivers to sustainable consumer behavioural intention in the Irish aviation industry. This research will examine the underlying factors that facilitate or hinder a consumer’s sustainable consumption pertaining to aviation, in order to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s). The SDG’s were adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 as a call to end poverty, to protect the planet and to ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity by the year 2030. Consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about environmental, social and economic issues, and are willing to act on those concerns. More recently, the impact of a consumers environmental footprint has led consumers to re-evaluate their purchase habits and in some cases consumers are more willing to spend more on products and services with environmental characteristics. Accordingly, this has pushed businesses to re-examine their sustainable efforts. However, although consumers may feel a moral responsibility to live sustainably, they cannot do so without effective support from governments, NGOs and the businesses with which they interact. Through the use of Ajzen’s amended TPB model, this research seeks to understand consumers attitudes and behavioural intention towards sustainable aviation and travel and examine the attitude-behaviour gap in sustainable tourism and aviation in Ireland. This research is a mixed methods study and will include an initial elicitation study in the form of focus groups supported by a quantitative survey to inform the initial findings of this research.

Keywords: aviation, consumer behaviour, marketing, sustainability

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4425 Autonomy Supportive Coaching to Achieve Health Literacy

Authors: E. Knisel, H. Rupprich, A. Heissel

Abstract:

Health Literacy is defined as the degree to which people have the capacity to obtain and understand information to make health decisions. Illustrated are three levels of health literacy: (1) Functional literacy refers to the transmission of information about e. g. physical activity and nutrition; (2) interactive literacy implies the development of personal and social skills to adopt health-related behaviour and (3) critical health literacy indicates advanced cognitive skills connected with personal empowerment to critically analyse health information, to define self-determined goals and taking action in various situations accordingly. The achievement of the third level refers to self-determination and autonomy which should be outcomes of exercise programs for overweight children as health-related behaviour change will occur and persist if it is autonomously motivated. Method: We adopted a quasi-experimental design with group (autonomy supportive coaching, control) and session (pre-test, intervention, post-test, and follow-up-test). Overweight and obese children and adolescents at the age of 8-14 years (N=40) received a 6-month (20 sessions) exercise program with autonomy supportive coaching implemented by the coaches and sandwiched between pre-test and post-test. All participants (N=92) completed the German version of the Basic Needs Satisfaction Scale Sport and Exercise. Additionally, we assessed the engagement in the exercise program by the MVPA (Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity) and by the adherence and drop-out-rate. Results: Participants in the intervention group perceived their autonomy as moderate in the post-test and the follow-up-test. However, the psychological intervention failed to develop a high autonomy, as both groups show moderate perceived autonomy from the pre-test to the post-test. Participants in the intervention group were higher engaged in MVPA in the exercise program and they attend the program more regularly. Discussion: Young overweight and obese children and adolescents can acquire autonomy using autonomy supporting coaching. However, research identifying the extent they achieve critical health literacy is required to implement an autonomy-supportive coaching style into exercise programs for this target group.

Keywords: autonomy support, coaching, health literacy, health promotion

Procedia PDF Downloads 487
4424 Comparative Analysis of Classification Methods in Determining Non-Active Student Characteristics in Indonesia Open University

Authors: Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih, Imas Sukaesih Sitanggang

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Classification is one of data mining techniques that aims to discover a model from training data that distinguishes records into the appropriate category or class. Data mining classification methods can be applied in education, for example, to determine the classification of non-active students in Indonesia Open University. This paper presents a comparison of three methods of classification: Naïve Bayes, Bagging, and C.45. The criteria used to evaluate the performance of three methods of classification are stratified cross-validation, confusion matrix, the value of the area under the ROC Curve (AUC), Recall, Precision, and F-measure. The data used for this paper are from the non-active Indonesia Open University students in registration period of 2004.1 to 2012.2. Target analysis requires that non-active students were divided into 3 groups: C1, C2, and C3. Data analyzed are as many as 4173 students. Results of the study show: (1) Bagging method gave a high degree of classification accuracy than Naïve Bayes and C.45, (2) the Bagging classification accuracy rate is 82.99 %, while the Naïve Bayes and C.45 are 80.04 % and 82.74 % respectively, (3) the result of Bagging classification tree method has a large number of nodes, so it is quite difficult in decision making, (4) classification of non-active Indonesia Open University student characteristics uses algorithms C.45, (5) based on the algorithm C.45, there are 5 interesting rules which can describe the characteristics of non-active Indonesia Open University students.

Keywords: comparative analysis, data mining, clasiffication, Bagging, Naïve Bayes, C.45, non-active students, Indonesia Open University

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4423 Fuzzy Logic Modeling of Evaluation the Urban Skylines by the Entropy Approach

Authors: Murat Oral, Seda Bostancı, Sadık Ata, Kevser Dincer

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When evaluating the aesthetics of cities, an analysis of the urban form development depending on design properties with a variety of factors is performed together with a study of the effects of this appearance on human beings. Different methods are used while making an aesthetical evaluation related to a city. Entropy, in its preliminary meaning, is the mathematical representation of thermodynamic results. Measuring the entropy is related to the distribution of positional figures of a message or information from the probabilities standpoint. In this study, analysis of evaluation the urban skylines by the entropy approach was modelled with Rule-Based Mamdani-Type Fuzzy (RBMTF) modelling technique. Input-output parameters were described by RBMTF if-then rules. Numerical parameters of input and output variables were fuzzificated as linguistic variables: Very Very Low (L1), Very Low (L2), Low (L3), Negative Medium (L4), Medium (L5), Positive Medium (L6), High (L7), Very High (L8) and Very Very High (L9) linguistic classes. The comparison between application data and RBMTF is done by using absolute fraction of variance (R2). The actual values and RBMTF results indicated that RBMTF can be successfully used for the analysis of evaluation the urban skylines by the entropy approach. As a result, RBMTF model has shown satisfying relation with experimental results, which suggests an alternative method to evaluation of the urban skylines by the entropy approach.

Keywords: urban skylines, entropy, rule-based Mamdani type, fuzzy logic

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4422 Isolation and Molecular Characterization of Lytic Bacteriophage against Carbapenem Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae

Authors: Guna Raj Dhungana, Roshan Nepal, Apshara Parajuli, , Archana Maharjan, Shyam K. Mishra, Pramod Aryal, Rajani Malla

Abstract:

Introduction: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a well-known opportunistic human pathogen, primarily causing healthcare-associated infections. The global emergence of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaeis a major public health burden, which is often extensively multidrug resistant.Thus, because of the difficulty to treat these ‘superbug’ and menace and some term as ‘apocalypse’ of post antibiotics era, an alternative approach to controlling this pathogen is prudent and one of the approaches is phage mediated control and/or treatment. Objective: In this study, we aimed to isolate novel bacteriophage against carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaeand characterize for potential use inphage therapy. Material and Methods: Twenty lytic phages were isolated from river water using double layer agar assay and purified. Biological features, physiochemical characters, burst size, host specificity and activity spectrum of phages were determined. One most potent phage: Phage TU_Kle10O was selected and characterized by electron microscopy. Whole genome sequences of the phage were analyzed for presence/absence of virulent factors, and other lysin genes. Results: Novel phage TU_Kle10O showed multiple host range within own genus and did not induce any BIM up to 5th generation of host’s life cycle. Electron microscopy confirmed that the phage was tailed and belonged to Caudovirales family. Next generation sequencing revealed its genome to be 166.2 Kb. bioinformatical analysis further confirmed that the phage genome ‘did not’ contain any ‘bacterial genes’ within phage genome, which ruled out the concern for transfer of virulent genes. Specific 'lysin’ enzyme was identified phages which could be used as 'antibiotics'. Conclusion: Extensively multidrug resistant bacteria like carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaecould be treated efficiently by phages.Absence of ‘virulent’ genes of bacterial origin and presence of lysin proteins within phage genome makes phages an excellent candidate for therapeutics.

Keywords: bacteriophage, Klebsiella pneumoniae, MDR, phage therapy, carbapenemase,

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4421 Time Series Modelling for Forecasting Wheat Production and Consumption of South Africa in Time of War

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 102