Search results for: scientific models

Authors: Juntima Pokkrong

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The objectives of the study were to develop packaging made from rice straws left after the harvest in order to create additional value for organic rice products of Uttaradit Province and to demonstrate the technology of producing straw packaging to the community. The population was promoters of organic rice distributors, governmental organizations, consumers, and three groups of organic rice producers which are the Agriculturist Group of Khorrum Sub-district, Pichai District, Uttaradit Province; the Agriculturist Group of Wangdin Sub-district, Muang District, Uttaradit Province; and the Agriculturist Group of Wangkapi Sub-district, Muang District, Uttaradit Province. The data were collected via group discussions, and two types of questionnaires. The data acquired were then analyzed using descriptive statistic for percentage, mean, standard deviation, and content analysis. It has been found that primary packaging for one kilogram of rice requires vacuumed plastic bags made from thermoplastic or resin because they are able to preserve the quality of rice for a long time, and they are also very cheap. For secondary packaging, the making of straw paper was studied and applied. Straw paper can be used for various purposes, and in this study, it was used to create the secondary packaging models in compliance with packaging preferences acquired from the questionnaires. The models were surveyed among the population for their opinion using satisfaction questionnaires, and the result was overall highly satisfactory.

Keywords: environmentally friendly, organic rice, packaging, straw paper

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Husam El-Asfour, Fateh Adhnouss, Kenneth McIsaac, Abdul Mutalib Wahaishi, Raafat Aburukba, Idris El-Feghia

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Although intelligence is commonly referred to as the observable behavior in various fields and domains, it must also be shown how it develops by exhibiting multiple forms and without observing the inherent behavior. There have been several official and informal definitions of intelligence in various areas; however, no scientific agreement on a definition has been agreed upon. There must be a single definition, structure, and precise modeling for articulating how intelligence is perceived by people and machines in order to comprehend intelligence. Another key challenge is defining the different environment types based on the integral elements (agents) and their possible interactions. On the basis of conceptualization, this paper proposes a formal model for defining and developing intelligence. Forms of intelligence are derived from an ontological view, and thus intelligence is defined, described, and modeled based on the various types of environments.

Keywords: intelligence, forms, transformation, conceptualization, ontological view

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Authors: Alexandru-Ion Marinescu

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There exist a plethora of methods in the scientific literature which tackle the well-established task of credit score evaluation. In its most abstract form, a credit scoring algorithm takes as input several credit applicant properties, such as age, marital status, employment status, loan duration, etc. and must output a binary response variable (i.e. “GOOD” or “BAD”) stating whether the client is susceptible to payment return delays. Data imbalance is a common occurrence among financial institution databases, with the majority being classified as “GOOD” clients (clients that respect the loan return calendar) alongside a small percentage of “BAD” clients. But it is the “BAD” clients we are interested in since accurately predicting their behavior is crucial in preventing unwanted loss for loan providers. We add to this whole context the constraint that the algorithm must yield an actual, tractable mathematical formula, which is friendlier towards financial analysts. To this end, we have turned to genetic algorithms and genetic programming, aiming to evolve actual mathematical expressions using specially tailored mutation and crossover operators. As far as data representation is concerned, we employ a very flexible mechanism – LINQ expression trees, readily available in the C# programming language, enabling us to construct executable pieces of code at runtime. As the title implies, they model trees, with intermediate nodes being operators (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division) or mathematical functions (sin, cos, abs, round, etc.) and leaf nodes storing either constants or variables. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the client properties and the formula variables. The mutation and crossover operators work on a flattened version of the tree, obtained via a pre-order traversal. A consequence of our chosen technique is that we can identify and discard client properties which do not take part in the final score evaluation, effectively acting as a dimensionality reduction scheme. We compare ourselves with state of the art approaches, such as support vector machines, Bayesian networks, and extreme learning machines, to name a few. The data sets we benchmark against amount to a total of 8, of which we mention the well-known Australian credit and German credit data sets, and the performance indicators are the following: percentage correctly classified, area under curve, partial Gini index, H-measure, Brier score and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, respectively. Finally, we obtain encouraging results, which, although placing us in the lower half of the hierarchy, drive us to further refine the algorithm.

Keywords: expression trees, financial credit scoring, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, symbolic evolution

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Authors: Rachid Zentar, Mokrane Bala, Pascal Boustingorry

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The prediction of the rheological behavior of concrete is at the center of current concerns of the concrete industry for different reasons. The shortage of good quality standard materials combined with variable properties of available materials imposes to improve existing models to take into account these variations at the design stage of concrete. The main reasons for improving the predictive models are, of course, saving time and cost at the design stage as well as to optimize concrete performances. In this study, we will highlight the different properties of the granular mixtures that affect the rheological properties of concrete. Our objective is to identify the intrinsic parameters of the aggregates which make it possible to predict the yield stress of concrete. The work was done using two typologies of grains: crushed and rolled aggregates. The experimental results have shown that the rheology of concrete is improved by increasing the packing density of the granular mixture using rolled aggregates. The experimental program realized allowed to model the yield stress of concrete by a modified model of Chateau et al. through a dimensionless parameter following Krieger-Dougherty law. The modelling confirms that the yield stress of concrete depends not only on the properties of cement paste but also on the packing density of the granular skeleton and the shape of grains.

Keywords: crushed aggregates, intrinsic viscosity, packing density, rolled aggregates, slump, yield stress of concrete

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Authors: Gregor Vidmar, Rožle Repič, Boštjan Lesar, Miha Humar

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The study investigates the impact of cracks in surface coatings on moisture content (MC) and related fungal growth in window frames made of thermally modified (TM) and native Norway spruce using hygrothermal simulations for Ljubljana, Slovenia. Comprehensive validation against field test data confirmed the numerical model's predictions, demonstrating similar trends in MC changes over the investigated four years. Various established mould growth models (isopleth, VTT, bio hygrothermal) did not appropriately reflect differences between the spruce types because they do not consider material moisture content, leading to the main conclusion that TM spruce is more resistant to moisture-related issues. Wood's MC influences fungal decomposition, typically occurring above 25% - 30% MC, with some fungi growing at lower MC under conducive conditions. Surface coatings cannot wholly prevent water penetration, which becomes significant when the coating is damaged. This study investigates the detrimental effects of surface coating cracks on wood moisture absorption, comparing TM spruce and native spruce window frames. Simulations were conducted for undamaged and damaged coatings (from 1 mm to 9 mm wide cracks) on window profiles as well as for uncoated profiles. Sorption curves were also measured up to 95% of the relative humidity. MC was measured in the frames exposed to actual climatic conditions and compared to simulated data for model validation. The study utilizes a simplified model of the bottom frame part due to convergence issues with simulations of the whole frame. TM spruce showed about 4% lower MC content compared to native spruce. Simulations showed that a 3 mm wide crack in native spruce coatings for the north orientation poses significant moisture risks, while a 9 mm wide crack in TM spruce coatings remains acceptable furthermore in the case of uncoated TM spruce could be acceptable. In addition, it seems that large enough cracks may cause even worse moisture dynamics compared to uncoated native spruce profiles. The absorption curve comes out to be the far most influential parameter, and the next one is density. Existing mould growth models need to be upgraded to reflect wood material differences accurately. Due to the lower sorption curve of TM spruce, in reality, higher RH values are obtained under the same boundary conditions, which implies a more critical situation according to these mould growth models. Still, it does not reflect the difference in materials, especially under external exposure conditions. Even if different substrate categories in the isopleth and bio-hygrothermal model or different sensitivity material classes for standard and TM wood are used, it does not necessarily change the expected trends; thus, models with MC being the inherent part of the models should be introduced. Orientation plays a crucial role in moisture dynamics. Results show that for similar moisture dynamics, for Norway spruce, the crack could be about 2 mm wider on the south than on the north side. In contrast, for TM spruce, orientation isn't as important, compared to other material properties. The study confirms the enhanced suitability of TM spruce for window frames in terms of moisture resistance and crack tolerance in surface coatings.

Keywords: hygrothermal simulations, mould growth, surface coating, thermally modified wood, window frame

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Authors: Donald Wright

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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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Authors: Attila Simon

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The subject of this research is an element of Mithras' iconography. It is a new element in the series of research begun with the study of the Bull in the Boat motif. The stylized altars represented by the seven adjacent rectangles appear on only a small group of Mithraic reliefs, which may explain why they have received less attention and fewer attempts at decipherment than other motifs. Using Vermaseren's database, CIMRM (Corpus Inscriptionum et Monumentorum Religionis Mithriacae), one collected all the cases containing the motif under investigation, created a database of them grouped by location, then used a comparative method to compare the different forms of the motif and to isolate these cases, and finally evaluated the results. The aim of this research is to interpret the iconographic element in question and attempt to determine its place of origin. The study may provide an interpretation of a Mithraic representation that, to the best of the author's knowledge, has not been explained so far, and the question may generate scientific discourses.

Keywords: roman history, religion, Mithras, iconography

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Authors: Seongcheol Kwon, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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We assume an IoT-based smart-home environment where the on-off status of each of the electrical appliances including the room lights can be recognized in a real time by monitoring and analyzing the smart meter data. At any moment in such an environment, we can recognize what the household or the user is doing by referring to the status data of the appliances. In this paper, we focus on a smart-home service that is to activate a robot vacuum cleaner at right time by recognizing the user situation, which requires a situation-aware model that can distinguish the situations that allow vacuum cleaning (Yes) from those that do not (No). We learn as our candidate models a few classifiers such as naïve Bayes, decision tree, and logistic regression that can map the appliance-status data into Yes and No situations. Our training and test data are obtained from simulations of user behaviors, in which a sequence of user situations such as cooking, eating, dish washing, and so on is generated with the status of the relevant appliances changed in accordance with the situation changes. During the simulation, both the situation transition and the resulting appliance status are determined stochastically. To compare the performances of the aforementioned classifiers we obtain their learning curves for different types of users through simulations. The result of our empirical study reveals that naïve Bayes achieves a slightly better classification accuracy than the other compared classifiers.

Keywords: situation-awareness, smart home, IoT, machine learning, classifier

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Authors: Iva Dvornik, Sandro Božić, Žana Božić Brkić

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System-dynamic simulating modelling is one of the most appropriate and successful scientific methods of the complex, non-linear, natural, technical and organizational systems. In the recent practice its methodology proved to be efficient in solving the problems of control, behavior, sensitivity and flexibility of the system dynamics behavior having a high degree of complexity, all these by computing simulation i.e. “under laboratory conditions” what means without any danger for observed realities. This essay deals with the research of the gas turbine dynamic process as well as the operating pump units and transformation of gas energy into hydraulic energy has been simulated. In addition, system mathematical model has been also researched (gas turbine- centrifugal pumps – pipeline pressure system – storage vessel).

Keywords: system dynamics, modelling, centrifugal pump, turbine, gases, continuous and discrete simulation, heuristic optimisation

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Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, N. Wilson

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Background: The sexual behaviour of youths is believed to play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Method: The data from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2010 and a sample of 16,217 youth’s age 15 to 24 years (with each household 27.2% female and 72.8% male) was the basis for analysis. Bivariate and logistic regression analysis was performed. Results: The result shows married youth were not interested in condom use (94.2%, p<0.05). Those who were living together were 69 times (OR=1.69, 95% CI, 1.26–2.26) more likely to be involved in early sexual activity compared to those who were not living together. Conclusion: This scientific paper will help other researchers, policy makers, and planners to create strategies to encourage these youths to make use of contraception.

Keywords: sexually transmitted infections (STIs), reproductive tract infections (RTIs), condom use, sexual partners, early sexual debut, youths

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Authors: Si Chen, Le Zhang, Xian He

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The research explored the influences of public open space system on housing price through hedonic models, in order to support better open space plans and economic policies. We have three initial hypotheses: 1) public open space system has an overall positive influence on surrounding housing prices. 2) Different public open space types have different levels of influence on motivating surrounding housing prices. 3) Walking and driving accessibilities from property to public open spaces have different statistical relation with housing prices. Cook County, Illinois, was chosen to be a study area since data availability, sufficient open space types, and long-term open space preservation strategies. We considered the housing attributes, driving and walking accessibility scores from houses to nearby public open spaces, and driving accessibility scores to hospitals as influential features and used real housing sales price in 2010 as a dependent variable in the built hedonic model. Through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis, General Moran’s I analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis, we observed the statistical relations between public open spaces and housing sale prices in the three built hedonic models and confirmed all three hypotheses.

Keywords: hedonic model, public open space, housing sale price, regression analysis, accessibility score

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Authors: Lior Davidovitch

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Traditional training based on static models and case studies is the backbone of most teaching and training programs of engineering education. However, project management learning is characterized by dynamics models that requires new and enhanced learning method. The results of empirical experiments evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of using cognitive simulator as a new training technique are reported. The empirical findings are focused on the impact of keeping and reviewing learning history in a dynamic and interactive simulation environment of engineering education. The cognitive simulator for engineering project management learning had two learning history keeping modes: manual (student-controlled), automatic (simulator-controlled) and a version with no history keeping. A group of industrial engineering students performed four simulation-runs divided into three identical simple scenarios and one complicated scenario. The performances of participants running the simulation with the manual history mode were significantly better than users running the simulation with the automatic history mode. Moreover, the effects of using the undo enhanced further the learning process. The findings indicate an enhancement of engineering students’ learning and decision making when they use the record functionality of the history during their engineering training process. Furthermore, the cognitive simulator as educational innovation improves students learning and training. The practical implications of using simulators in the field of engineering education are discussed.

Keywords: cognitive simulator, decision making, engineering learning, project management

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Authors: Reza Babajanivalashedi, Stefania Lo Feudo, Jean-Luc Dion

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Liquid sloshing is a crucial problem for the dynamic of moving containers in the packaging industries. Sloshing issues have been so far mainly modeled within the framework of fluid dynamics or by using equivalent mechanical models with different kinds of movements and shapes of containers. Nevertheless, these approaches do not allow to determinate the shape of the free surface of the liquid in case of the irregular shape of the moving containers, so that experimental measurements may be required. If there is too much slosh in the moving tank, the liquid can be splashed out on the packages. So, the free surface oscillation must be controlled/reduced to eliminate the splashing. The purpose of this research is to propose an optimization algorithm for finding an optimum command law to reduce surface elevation. In the first step, the free surface of the liquid is simulated based on the separation variable and weak formulation models. Then Genetic and Gradient algorithms are developed for finding the optimum command law. The optimum command law is compared with existing command laws, and the results show that there is a significant difference in surface oscillation between optimum and existing command laws. This algorithm is applicable for different varieties of bottles in case of using the camera for detecting the liquid elevation, and it can produce new command laws for different kinds of tanks to reduce the surface oscillation and remove the splashing phenomenon.

Keywords: sloshing phenomenon, separation variables, weak formulation, optimization algorithm, command law

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Authors: M. Goerke, J. Gehrmann

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Caused by shorter product life cycles and higher product variety the importance of production ramp ups is increasing. Even though companies are aware of that fact, up to 40% of the ramp up projects still miss technical and economical requirements. The success of a ramp up depends on the planning of human factors, organizational aspects and technological solutions. Since only partly considered in scientific literature, this paper lays its focus on the human factor during production ramp up. There are only incoherent methods which address the problems in this area. A systematic and holistic method to improve the capabilities of the employees during ramp up is missing. The Harada Method is a relatively young approach for developing highly-skilled workers. It consists of different worksheets which help employees to set guidelines and reach overall objectives. This approach is going to be transferred into a tool for ramp up management.

Keywords: employee development, Harada, production ramp up, organizational aspects

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: L. Siva Rama Krishna, Sriram Venkatesh, M. Sastish Kumar, M. Uma Maheswara Chary

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Rapid Prototyping (RP) is a technology that produces models and prototype parts from 3D CAD model data, CT/MRI scan data, and model data created from 3D object digitizing systems. There are several RP process like Stereolithography (SLA), Solid Ground Curing (SGC), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM), 3D Printing (3DP) among them SLS and FDM RP processes are used to fabricate pattern of custom cranial implant. RP technology is useful in engineering and biomedical application. This is helpful in engineering for product design, tooling and manufacture etc. RP biomedical applications are design and development of medical devices, instruments, prosthetics and implantation; it is also helpful in planning complex surgical operation. The traditional approach limits the full appreciation of various bony structure movements and therefore the custom implants produced are difficult to measure the anatomy of parts and analyse the changes in facial appearances accurately. Cranioplasty surgery is a surgical correction of a defect in cranial bone by implanting a metal or plastic replacement to restore the missing part. This paper aims to do a comparative study on the dimensional error of CAD and SLS RP Models for reconstruction of cranial defect by comparing the virtual CAD with the physical RP model of a cranial defect.

Keywords: rapid prototyping, selective laser sintering, cranial defect, dimensional error

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Authors: Mark Darius Juszczak

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While epistemology, as a sub-field of philosophy, is generally concerned with theoretical questions about the nature of knowledge, the explosion in digital media technologies has resulted in an exponential increase in the storage and transmission of human information. That increase has resulted in a particular non-linear dynamic – digital epistemological functions are radically altering how and what we know. Neither the rate of that change nor the consequences of it have been well studied or taken into account in developing state-level strategies for epistemological functions. At the current time, US Federal policy, like that of virtually all other countries, maintains, at the national state level, clearly defined boundaries between various epistemological agencies - agencies that, in one way or another, mediate the functional use of knowledge. These agencies can take the form of patent and trademark offices, national library and archive systems, departments of education, departments such as the FTC, university systems and regulations, military research systems such as DARPA, federal scientific research agencies, medical and pharmaceutical accreditation agencies, federal funding for scientific research and legislative committees and subcommittees that attempt to alter the laws that govern epistemological functions. All of these agencies are in the constant process of creating, analyzing, and regulating knowledge. Those processes are, at the most general level, epistemological functions – they act upon and define what knowledge is. At the same time, however, there are no high-level strategic epistemological directives or frameworks that define those functions. The only time in US history where a proxy state-level epistemological strategy existed was between 1961 and 1969 when the Kennedy Administration committed the United States to the Apollo program. While that program had a singular technical objective as its outcome, that objective was so technologically advanced for its day and so complex so that it required a massive redirection of state-level epistemological functions – in essence, a broad and diverse set of state-level agencies suddenly found themselves working together towards a common epistemological goal. This paper does not call for a repeat of the Apollo program. Rather, its purpose is to investigate the minimum structural requirements for a national state-level epistemological strategy in the United States. In addition, this paper also seeks to analyze how the epistemological work of the multitude of national agencies within the United States would be affected by such a high-level framework. This paper is an exploratory study of this type of framework. The primary hypothesis of the author is that such a function is possible but would require extensive re-framing and reclassification of traditional epistemological functions at the respective agency level. In much the same way that, for example, DHS (Department of Homeland Security) evolved to respond to a new type of security threat in the world for the United States, it is theorized that a lack of coordination and alignment in epistemological functions will equally result in a strategic threat to the United States.

Keywords: strategic security, epistemological functions, epistemological agencies, Apollo program

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Authors: H. Gokdemir

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All structures are subject to vertical and lateral loads. Under these loads, structures make deformations and deformation values of structural elements mustn't exceed their capacity for structural stability. Especially, lateral loads cause critical deformations because of their random directions and magnitudes. Wind load is one of the lateral loads which can act in any direction and any magnitude. Although wind has nearly no effect on reinforced concrete structures, it must be considered for steel structures, roof systems and slender structures like minarets. Therefore, every structure must be able to resist wind loads acting parallel and perpendicular to any side. One of the effective methods for resisting lateral loads is assembling cross steel elements between columns which are called as wind bracing. These cross elements increases lateral rigidity of a structure and prevent exceeding of deformation capacity of the structural system. So, this means cross elements are also effective in resisting earthquake loads too. In this paper; Effects of wind bracing to earthquake resistance of structures are studied. Structure models (with and without wind bracing) are generated and these models are solved under both earthquake and wind loads with different seismic zone parameters. It is concluded by the calculations that; in low-seismic risk zones, wind bracing can easily resist earthquake loads and no additional reinforcement for earthquake loads is necessary. Similarly; in high-seismic risk zones, earthquake cross elements resist wind loads too.

Keywords: wind bracings, earthquake, steel structures, vertical and lateral loads

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Authors: Ivana Yuniarti, Iwan Ridwansyah

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This paper delivers a review of various methodologies for habitat assessment and a proposed methodology to assess an endemic fish species habitat in Lake Maninjau, Indonesia as a part of a Ph.D. project. This application is mainly aimed to assess the trade-off between the economic value of aquaculture and the fisheries. The proposed methodology is a generalized linear model (GLM) combined with GIS to assess presence-absence data or habitat suitability index (HSI) combined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Further, a cost of habitat replacement approach is planned to be used to calculate the habitat value as well as its trade-off with the economic value of aquaculture. The result of the study is expected to be a scientific consideration in local decision making and to provide a reference for other areas in the country.

Keywords: AHP, habitat, GLM, HSI, Maninjau

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Authors: Marcel Randermann, Roland Jochem

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Research activities are mostly conducted in form of projects. In fact, research projects take the highest share of all project forms combined. However, project management is very rarely applied purposefully by researchers and scientists. More specifically no project management frameworks, methods or tools are not being used to plan, execute or control research project to ensure research success or improve project quality. In this qualitative study, several interviews were conducted with scientists and research managers from German institutions to gain insights into project management activities, to determine challenges and barriers, and to evaluate premises for successful project management. The analyses show that conventional project management is not easily applicable in scientific environments and researchers’ mindsets prevent a reasonable application.

Keywords: academics, project management methods, research and science projects, scientist's mindset

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Authors: Ouazoul Abdelouahd, Jemjami Nadia

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The concept of well-being at work is one of today's major challenges in maintaining quality of life and managing psycho-social risks at work. Indeed, work in the sports sector has evolved over time, and this exponential evolution, marked by increasing demands and psychological, physical and/or social challenges, which sometimes exceed the resources of sports players, influences their sense of well-being at work. Well-being and burnout as antagonists provide information on the quality of working life in sports. The main objective of this literature review was to examine the scientific corpus dealing with the subject of psychological well-being at work in the sports sector and, more specifically, with sports coaches while exploring the link between sports burnout and well-being. The results reveal the richness of the conceptual approaches and the difficulties of putting them into practice. Prospects for future research were put forward.

Keywords: psychological well-being, burnout, quality of life, sports coaching

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Authors: M. J. Eichner, Y. S. Sarhan

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Overall study purpose has been the evaluation of ‘Vertical Villages’ as a new sustainable building typology, reducing significantly negative impacts of rapid urbanization processes in third world capital cities. Commonly in fast-growing cities, housing and job supply, educational and recreational opportunities, as well as public transportation infrastructure, are not accommodating rapid population growth, exposing people to high noise and emission polluted living environments with low-quality neighborhoods and a lack of recreational areas. Like many others, Egypt’s capital city Cairo, according to the UN facing annual population growth rates of up to 428.000 people, is struggling to address the general deterioration of urban living conditions. New settlements typologies and urban reconstruction approach hardly follow sustainable urbanization principles or socio-ecologic urbanization models with severe effects not only for inhabitants but also for the local environment and global climate. The authors prove that ‘Vertical Village’ buildings can offer a sustainable solution for increasing urban density with at the same time improving the living quality and urban environment significantly. Inserting them within high-density urban fabrics the ecologic and socio-cultural conditions of low-quality neighborhoods can be transformed towards districts, considering all needs of sustainable and social urban life. This study analyzes existing building typologies in Cairo’s «low quality - high density» districts Ard el Lewa, Dokki and Mohandesen according to benchmarks for sustainable residential buildings, identifying major problems and deficits. In 3 case study design projects, the sustainable transformation potential through ‘Vertical Village’ buildings are laid out and comparative studies show the improvement of the urban microclimate, safety, social diversity, sense of community, aesthetics, privacy, efficiency, healthiness and accessibility. The main result of the paper is that the disadvantages of density and overpopulation in developing countries can be converted with ‘Vertical Village’ buildings into advantages, achieving attractive and environmentally friendly living environments with multiple synergies. The paper is documenting based on scientific criteria that mixed-use vertical building structures, designed according to sustainable principles of low rise housing, can serve as an alternative to convert «low quality - high density» districts in megacities, opening a pathway for governments to achieve sustainable urban transformation goals. Neglected informal urban districts, home to millions of the poorer population groups, can be converted into healthier living and working environments.

Keywords: sustainable, architecture, urbanization, urban transformation, vertical village

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Oscar Norman Nekesa, Yoshitaka Kajita

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Tom Mboya Street is a vital urban corridor within the spectrum of Nairobi city, it experiences high volumes of pedestrian and vehicular traffic. Despite past intervention measures to lessen this catastrophe, rates have remained high. This highlights significant safety concerns that need urgent attention. This study investigates the correlation and pedestrian accident predictability with significant independent variables using multiple linear regression to model to develop effective mobility management strategies for accident mitigation. The methodology involves collecting and analyzing data on pedestrian accidents and various related independent variables. Data sources include the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and Nairobi City County records, covering five years. This study aims to investigate that traffic volumes (pedestrian and vehicle), Vehicular speed, human factors, illegal parking, policy issues, urban-land use, built environment, traffic signals conditions, inadequate lighting, and insufficient traffic control measures significantly have predictability with the rate of pedestrian accidents. Explanatory variables related to road design and geometry are significant in predictor models for the Tom Mboya Road link but less influential in junction along the 5 km stretch road models. The most impactful variable across all models was vehicular traffic flow. The study recommends infrastructural improvements, enhanced enforcement, and public awareness campaigns to reduce accidents and improve urban mobility. These insights can inform policy-making and urban planning to enhance pedestrian safety along the dense packed Tom Mboya Street and similar urban settings. The findings will inform evidence-based interventions to enhance pedestrian safety and improve urban mobility.

Keywords: multiple linear regression, urban mobility, traffic management, Nairobi, Tom Mboya street, infrastructure conditions., pedestrian safety, correlation and prediction

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Authors: Sukaina Al-Nasrawi, Maysoun Ibrahim

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Information and communication technologies (ICT) have affected recent public administration and governance. Electronic Government (e-government) services were developed to simplify government procedures and improve interaction with citizens on one hand and to create new governance models to empower citizens and involve them in the decision-making process while increasing transparency on another hand. It is worth noting that efficient governance models enable sustainable development at the social and economic levels. Currently, the status of e-government national strategies and implementation programs vary from one country to another. This variance in the development levels of e-government initiatives and applications noted the digital divide between countries of the same region, thereby highlighting the difficulty to reach regional integration. Many Arab countries realized the need for a well-articulated e-government strategy and launched national e-government initiatives. In selected Arab countries, the focus of e-government initiatives and programs shifted from the provision of services to advanced concepts such as open data initiatives. This paper aims at over viewing the e-government achievements of Arab countries and areas for enhancement, and share best practices in the area.of the best e-government programmes from the Arab region the world. It will also shed the light on the impact of the information society in general and e-government, in specific, on the social and economic development in the Arab region.

Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), services, e-government, development, Arab region, digital divide, citizens

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Authors: Giada Feletti, Daniela Tedesco, Paolo Trucco

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The present study aims to develop a dashboard of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to enhance information and predictive capabilities in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems, supporting both operational and strategic decisions of different actors. The employed research methodology consists of the first phase of revision of the technical-scientific literature concerning the indicators currently used for the performance measurement of EMS systems. From this literature analysis, it emerged that current studies focus on two distinct perspectives: the ambulance service, a fundamental component of pre-hospital health treatment, and the patient care in the Emergency Department (ED). The perspective proposed by this study is to consider an integrated view of the ambulance service process and the ED process, both essential to ensure high quality of care and patient safety. Thus, the proposal focuses on the entire healthcare service process and, as such, allows considering the interconnection between the two EMS processes, the pre-hospital and hospital ones, connected by the assignment of the patient to a specific ED. In this way, it is possible to optimize the entire patient management. Therefore, attention is paid to the dependency of decisions that in current EMS management models tend to be neglected or underestimated. In particular, the integration of the two processes enables the evaluation of the advantage of an ED selection decision having visibility on EDs’ saturation status and therefore considering the distance, the available resources and the expected waiting times. Starting from a critical review of the KPIs proposed in the extant literature, the design of the dashboard was carried out: the high number of analyzed KPIs was reduced by eliminating the ones firstly not in line with the aim of the study and then the ones supporting a similar functionality. The KPIs finally selected were tested on a realistic dataset, which draws us to exclude additional indicators due to the unavailability of data required for their computation. The final dashboard, which was discussed and validated by experts in the field, includes a variety of KPIs able to support operational and planning decisions, early warning, and citizens’ awareness of EDs accessibility in real-time. By associating each KPI to the EMS phase it refers to, it was also possible to design a well-balanced dashboard covering both efficiency and effective performance of the entire EMS process. Indeed, just the initial phases related to the interconnection between ambulance service and patient’s care are covered by traditional KPIs compared to the subsequent phases taking place in the hospital ED. This could be taken into consideration for the potential future development of the dashboard. Moreover, the research could proceed by building a multi-layer dashboard composed of the first level with a minimal set of KPIs to measure the basic performance of the EMS system at an aggregate level and further levels with KPIs that can bring additional and more detailed information.

Keywords: dashboard, decision support, emergency medical services, key performance indicators

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Authors: Matteo Nicoli, Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Daniele Lerede, Laura Savoldi

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The transport sector is currently responsible for approximately 1/3 of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. In the wider context of achieving carbon neutrality of the global energy system, different alternatives are available to decarbonizethe transport sector. In particular, while electricity is already the most consumed energy commodity in rail transport, battery electric vehicles are one of the zero-emissions options on the market for road transportation. On the other hand, hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicles are available for road and non-road vehicles. The European Commission is strongly pushing toward the integration of hydrogen in the energy systems of European countries and its widespread adoption as an energy vector to achieve the Green Deal targets. Furthermore, the Italian government is defining hydrogen-related objectives with the publication of a dedicated Hydrogen Strategy. The adoption of energy system optimization models to study the possible penetration of alternative zero-emitting transport technologies gives the opportunity to perform an overall analysis of the effects that the development of innovative technologies has on the entire energy system and on the supply-side, devoted to the production of energy carriers such as hydrogen and electricity. Using an open-source modeling framework such as TEMOA, this work aims to compare the role of hydrogen and electric vehicles in the decarbonization of the transport sector. The analysis investigates the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the two options, from the economic point of view (costs associated with the two options) and the environmental one (looking at the emissions reduction perspectives). Moreover, an analysis on the profitability of the investments in hydrogen and electric vehicles will be performed. The study investigates the evolution of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in different transportation modes (road, rail, navigation, and aviation) by detailed analysis of the full range of vehicles included in the techno-economic database used in the TEMOA model instance adopted for this work. The transparency of the analysis is guaranteed by the accessibility of the TEMOA models, based on an open-access source code and databases.

Keywords: battery electric vehicles, decarbonization, energy system optimization models, fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA, transport

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Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Laura Mclean

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A recurring point of interest in computational phylogenetic analysis of Indo-European family trees is the inference of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade in some versions of the trees produced. The presence of this clade in the models is intriguing as there is little evidence for innovations shared among Germanic, Italic, and Celtic, the evidence generally used in the traditional method to construct a subgroup. One source of this unexpected outcome could be the input to the models. The datasets in the various models used so far, for the most part, take as their basis the Swadesh list, a list compiled by Morris Swadesh and then revised several times, containing up to 207 words that he believed were resistant to change among languages. The judgments made by Swadesh for this list, however, were subjective and based on his intuition rather than rigorous analysis. Some scholars used the Swadesh 200 list as the basis for their Indo-European dataset and made cognacy judgements for each of the words on the list. Another dataset is largely based on the Swadesh 207 list as well although the authors include additional lexical and non-lexical data, and they implement ‘split coding’ to deal with cases of polymorphic characters. A different team of scholars uses a different dataset, IECoR, which combines several different lists, one of which is the Swadesh 200 list. In fact, the Swadesh list is used in some form in every study surveyed and each dataset has three words that, when they are coded as cognates, seemingly contribute to the inference of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade which could happen due to these clades sharing three words among only themselves. These three words are ‘fish’, ‘flower’, and ‘man’ (in the case of ‘man’, one dataset includes Lithuanian in the cognacy coding and removes the word ‘man’ from the screened data). This collection of cognates shared among Germanic, Italic, and Celtic that were deemed important enough to be included on the Swadesh list, without the ability to account for possible reasons for shared cognates that are not shared innovations, gives an impression of affinity between the Germanic, Celtic, and Italic branches without adequate methodological support. However, by changing how cognacy is defined (ie. root cognates, borrowings vs inherited cognates etc.), we will be able to identify whether these three cognates are significant enough to infer a clade for Germanic, Celtic, and Italic. This paper examines the question of what definition of cognacy should be used for phylogenetic datasets by examining the Germano-Italo-Celtic clade as a case study and offers insights into the reconstruction of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade.

Keywords: historical, computational, Italo-Celtic, Germanic

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Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 95