Search results for: integrative model of behavior prediction

Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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It is known that in humans, the adaptation to a given odor occurs within a quite short span of time (typically one minute) after the odor is presented to the brain. Different models of human olfaction have been developed by scientists but none of these models consider the diffusion phenomenon in olfaction. A novel microscopic model of the human olfaction is presented in this paper. We develop this model by incorporating the transient diffusivity. In fact, the mathematical model is written based on diffusion of the odorant within the mucus layer. By the use of the model developed in this paper, it becomes possible to provide quantification of the objective strength of odor.

Keywords: diffusion, microscopic model, mucus layer, olfaction

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: M. Najafi, F. Rahimi Dehgolan

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In this paper, the dynamic modeling of a single-link flexible beam with a tip mass is given by using Hamilton's principle. The link has been rotational and translational motion and it was assumed that the beam is moving with a harmonic velocity about a constant mean velocity. Non-linearity has been introduced by including the non-linear strain to the analysis. Dynamic model is obtained by Euler-Bernoulli beam assumption and modal expansion method. Also, the effects of rotary inertia, axial force, and associated boundary conditions of the dynamic model were analyzed. Since the complex boundary value problem cannot be solved analytically, the multiple scale method is utilized to obtain an approximate solution. Finally, the effects of several conditions on the differences among the behavior of the non-linear term, mean velocity on natural frequencies and the system stability are discussed.

Keywords: non-linear vibration, stability, axially moving beam, bifurcation, multiple scales method

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Authors: Nanine Fouche

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The Cape Flats is a low-lying sand-covered expanse of approximately 460 square kilometres, situated to the southeast of the central business district of Cape Town in the Western Cape of South Africa. The aeolian sands masking this area are often loose and compressible in the upper 1m to 1.5m of the surface, and there is a general exceedance of the maximum allowable settlement in these sands. The settlement of shallow foundations on Cape Flats sands is commonly predicted using the results of in-situ tests such as the SPT or DPSH due to the difficulty of retrieving undisturbed samples for laboratory testing. Varying degrees of accuracy and reliability are associated with these methods. More recently, shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles obtained from seismic testing, such as continuous surface wave tests (CSW), are being used for settlement prediction. Such predictions have the advantage of considering non-linear stress-strain behaviour of soil and the degradation of stiffness with increasing strain. CSW tests are rarely executed in the Cape Flats, whereas SPT’s are commonly performed. For this reason, and to facilitate better settlement predictions in Cape Flats sand, equations representing shear wave velocity (Vs) as a function of SPT blow count (N60) and vertical effective stress (v’) were generated by statistical regression of site investigation data. To reveal the most appropriate method of overburden correction, analyses were performed with a separate overburden term (Pa/σ’v) as well as using stress corrected shear wave velocity and SPT blow counts (correcting Vs. and N60 to Vs1and (N1)60respectively). Shear wave velocity profiles and SPT blow count data from three sites masked by Cape Flats sands were utilised to generate 80 Vs-SPT N data pairs for analysis. Investigated terrains included sites in the suburbs of Athlone, Muizenburg, and Atlantis, all underlain by windblown deposits comprising fine and medium sand with varying fines contents. Elastic settlement analysis was also undertaken for the Cape Flats sands, using a non-linear stepwise method based on small-strain stiffness estimates, which was obtained from the best Vs-N60 model and compared to settlement estimates using the general elastic solution with stiffness profiles determined using Stroud’s (1989) and Webb’s (1969) SPT N60-E transformation models. Stroud’s method considers strain level indirectly whereasWebb’smethod does not take account of the variation in elastic modulus with strain. The expression of Vs. in terms of N60 and Pa/σv’ derived from the Atlantis data set revealed the best fit with R2 = 0.83 and a standard error of 83.5m/s. Less accurate Vs-SPT N relations associated with the combined data set is presumably the result of inversion routines used in the analysis of the CSW results showcasing significant variation in relative density and stiffness with depth. The regression analyses revealed that the inclusion of a separate overburden term in the regression of Vs and N60, produces improved fits, as opposed to the stress corrected equations in which the R2 of the regression is notably lower. It is the correction of Vs and N60 to Vs1 and (N1)60 with empirical constants ‘n’ and ‘m’ prior to regression, that introduces bias with respect to overburden pressure. When comparing settlement prediction methods, both Stroud’s method (considering strain level indirectly) and the small strain stiffness method predict higher stiffnesses for medium dense and dense profiles than Webb’s method, which takes no account of strain level in the determination of soil stiffness. Webb’s method appears to be suitable for loose sands only. The Versak software appears to underestimate differences in settlement between square and strip footings of similar width. In conclusion, settlement analysis using small-strain stiffness data from the proposed Vs-N60 model for Cape Flats sands provides a way to take account of the non-linear stress-strain behaviour of the sands when calculating settlement.

Keywords: sands, settlement prediction, continuous surface wave test, small-strain stiffness, shear wave velocity, penetration resistance

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Authors: Sultan Alotaibi, Dmitri Roussinov

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Many governments recently started to change the ways of providing their services by allowing their citizens to access services from anywhere without the need of visiting the location of the service provider. Mobile government (M-government) is one of the techniques that fulfill that goal. It has been adopted by many governments. M-government can be defined as an implementation of Electronic Government (E-Government) by using mobile technology with the aim of improving service delivery to citizens, businesses and all government agencies. There have been several research projects developing models to understand the behavior of individuals towards the adoption of m-government. This paper proposes a model for adoption of m-government services in Saudi Arabia by extending Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) by introducing external factors. This paper also reports on the development of a survey instrument designed to measure user perception of mobile government acceptance. A survey instrument has been developed by using existing scales from prior instruments and a pilot study has been conducted by distributing the survey to 33 participants. As a result, a survey instrument has been refined to retain 43 items. The results also showed that the reliabilities of all the scales in the survey instrument are above the levels acceptable in current academic research, thus the instruments developed by us are capable of analyzing the factors in M-government adoption.

Keywords: TAM, m-government, e-government, model, acceptance, mobile government

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Authors: Ruixia Liu

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Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has an important influence on the precipitation of its lower reaches. Data from remote sensing has itself advantage and numerical prediction model which assimilates RS data will be better than other. We got the assimilation data of MHS and terrestrial and sounding from GSI, and introduced the result into WRF, then got the result of RH and precipitation forecast. We found that assimilating MHS and terrestrial and sounding made the forecast on precipitation, area and the center of the precipitation more accurate by comparing the result of 1h,6h,12h, and 24h. Analyzing the difference of the initial field, we knew that the data assimilating about Qinghai-Tibet Plateau influence its lower reaches forecast by affecting on initial temperature and RH.

Keywords: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, precipitation, data assimilation, GSI

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Yuliya Kovalenko

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Given the social nature of people, it is interesting to explore strategies of responding to psycho-traumatic situations in individuals of different ethnic and religious identity. This would allow to substantially expand the idea of human behavior in general, and coping behavior, in particular. This paper investigated the weighted impact of ethnic and religious identities on the patterns of coping behavior. This cross-cultural research empirically revealed intergroup differences in coping strategies and behavior in the samples of young students and teachers of different ethnic identities (Egyptians N=216 and Ukrainians N=109) and different religious identities (Egyptian Muslims N=147 and Christians, including Egyptian Christians N=68 and Ukrainian Christians N = 109). The empirical data were obtained using the questionnaires SACS and COPE. Statistical analysis and interpretation of the results were performed with IBM SPSS-23.0. It was found that, compared to the religious identity, the ethnic identity of the subjects appeared more predictive of coping behavior. It was shown that the constant exchange of information and the unity of biological and social contributed to a more homogeneous picture in the society where Christians and Muslims were integrated into a single cultural space. It was concluded that depending on their ethnic identity, individuals would form a specific hierarchy of coping strategies resulting in a specific pattern of coping with certain stressors. The Egyptian subjects revealed the following pattern of coping with various kinds of academic stress: 'seeking social support', 'problem solving', 'adapting', 'seeking information'. The coping pattern demonstrated by the Ukrainian subjects could be presented as 'seeking information', 'adapting', 'seeking social support', 'problem solving'. There was a tendency in the group of Egyptians to engage in more collectivist coping strategies (with the predominant coping strategy 'religious coping'), in contrast to the Ukrainians who displayed more individualistic coping strategies (with 'planning' and 'active coping' as the mostly used coping strategies). At the same time, it was obvious that Ukrainians should not be unambiguously attributed to the individualistic coping behavior due to their reliance on 'seeking social support' and 'social contact'. The final conclusion was also drawn from the peculiarities of developing religious identity, including religiosity, in Egyptians (formal religious education of both Muslims and Christians) and Ukrainians (more spontaneous process): Egyptians seem to learn to resort to the religious coping, which could be an indication that, in principle, it is possible and necessary to train individuals in desirable coping behavior.

Keywords: coping behavior, cross-cultural research, ethnic and religious identity, hierarchical pattern of coping

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Authors: Henrique C. C. Andrade, Ana Beatriz C. G. Silva, Fernando Luiz B. Ribeiro, Samir Maghous, Jose Claudio F. Telles, Eduardo M. R. Fairbairn

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The present paper aims at developing a parallel computational model for numerical simulation of poromechanics analyses of heterogeneous reservoirs. In the context of macroscopic poroelastoplasticity, the hydromechanical coupling between the skeleton deformation and the fluid pressure is addressed by means of two constitutive equations. The first state equation relates the stress to skeleton strain and pore pressure, while the second state equation relates the Lagrangian porosity change to skeleton volume strain and pore pressure. A specific algorithm for local plastic integration using a tangent operator is devised. A modified Cam-clay type yield surface with associated plastic flow rule is adopted to account for both contractive and dilative behavior.

Keywords: finite element method, poromechanics, poroplasticity, reservoir analysis

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Authors: A. M. El-Aziz, M. Elsehamy, H. Hussein

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Steel or stainless steel have reasonable corrosion behavior in water, their corrosion resistance is significantly dependent on the water purity. It was not expected that demineralized water has an aggressive effect on steel alloys, in this study, the effect of water with different purity on steel X52 and stainless steel 316L was investigated. Weight loss and electrochemical measurements were employed to measure the corrosion behavior. Samples were microscopically investigated after test. It was observed that the higher the water purity the more reactive it is. Comparative analysis of the potentiodynamic curves for different water purity showed the aggressiveness of the demineralised water (conductivity of 0.05 microSiemens per cm) over the distilled water. Whereas, the corrosion rates of stainless steel 858 and 623 nm/y for demi and distilled water respectively. On the other hand, the corrosion rates of carbon steel x52 were estimated about 4.8 and 3.6 µm/y for demi and distilled water, respectively. Open circuit potential (OCP) recorded more positive potentials in case of stainless steel than carbon steel in different water purities. Generally, stainless steel illustrated high pitting resistance than carbon steel alloy, the surface film was investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). This behavior was explained based on that demi and distilled water might be considered as ‘hungry water’ in which it wants to be in equilibrium and will pull ions out of the surrounding metals trying to satisfy its ‘hunger’.

Keywords: corrosion, demineralized water, distilled water, steel alloys

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Authors: Zainab Magaji Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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The web services applications for digital reference service (WSDRS) of LIS model is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ needs in the reference section of libraries. The formal WSDRS model consists of the Z specifications of all the informal specifications of the model. This paper discusses the formal validation of the Z specifications of WSDRS model. The authors formally verify and thus validate the properties of the model using Z/EVES theorem prover.

Keywords: validation, verification, formal, theorem prover

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Authors: Hatem Ashur Masoud Shreha

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Aromatase inhibitors administered before sexual differentiation of the gonads in chicken embryo can induce sex reversal in female layer chickens (phenotypic male). To analyze the process of sex reversal, we have followed for several months the changes induced by Fadrozole, a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor on morphology of female sex-reversed and female sex-reversed supplemented with L-tyrosine which was previously shown to stimulate release of Gn Rh. Fadrozole (1mg/egg) was injected into eggs on day four of incubation before sex differentiation. phenotypic males and phenotypic males treated with L-tyrosine and males hatched from eggs injected Fadrozole were sacrificed by slaughtering at 16 weeks old and the remaining chicks were sacrificed at 28 weeks old. Both sexes from control chickens were sacrificed at the same age (16 &28 weeks). Hatchability, behavior, body weight, shank length, comb weight, testes weight, blood cells count and wattle weight of sex reversal were tested at 16 and 28 weeks. The results showed that body weight, comb weight, wattles weight and shank length of sex-reversed females were significantly different from control female. Behavior of phenotypic males and phenotypic males fed on L-tyrosine showed aggressive sexual behavior like that of control males and absence of laying behavior. In conclusion our results confirm that Fadrazole injection in eggs before sex differentiation produce a male behavior and morphological index of male in female chicken.

Keywords: sex-reversal, fadrozole, phenotypic male, L-tyrosine

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Authors: Bin Yang, Xiaofang Chen, Guangxin Wang

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Zinc coating as a sacrificial protection plays an important role in the traditional steel anticorrosion field. Adding second-phase reinforcement particles into zinc matrix is an interesting approach to further enhance its corrosion performance. In this paper, pure Zn and Zn–graphene composite coatings of different graphene contents were prepared by direct current electrodeposition on 304 stainless steel substrate. The coatings were characterized by XRD, SEM/EDS, and Raman spectroscopy. Tafel polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopic methods were used to study their corrosion behavior. Result obtained have shown that the concentration of grapheme oxide (GO) in zinc sulfate bath has an important effect on textured structure and surface morphology of Zn–graphene composite coatings. The coating prepared with 1.0g/L GO has shown the best corrosion resistance compared to other coatings prepared in this study.

Keywords: Zn-graphene coatings, electrodeposition, microstructure, corrosion behavior

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Authors: Matthew C. Best

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Linear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic models can be identified, with no a priori knowledge of model structure or order, using a new Generalised Identifying Filter (GIF). Based on an Extended Kalman Filter, the new filter identifies the model iteratively, in a continuous modal canonical form, using only input and output time histories. The filter’s self-propagating state error covariance matrix allows easy determination of convergence and conditioning, and by progressively increasing model order, the best fitting reduced-order model can be identified. The method is shown to be resistant to noise and can easily be extended to identification of smoothly nonlinear systems.

Keywords: system identification, Kalman filter, linear model, MIMO, model order reduction

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Authors: Fang Li, Xie-Yuan Yin, Xie-Zhen Yin

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Instability and breakup of electrified viscoelastic liquid jets are involved in various applications such as inkjet printing, fuel atomization, the pharmaceutical industry, electrospraying, and electrospinning. Studying on the instability of electrified viscoelastic liquid jets is of theoretical and practical significance. We built a one-dimensional electrified viscoelastic model to study the nonlinear instability behavior of a perfecting conducting, slightly viscoelastic liquid jet under a radial electric field. The model is solved numerically by using an implicit finite difference scheme together with a boundary element method. It is found that under a radial electric field a viscoelastic liquid jet still evolves into a beads-on-string structure with a thin filament connecting two adjacent droplets as in the absence of an electric field. A radial electric field exhibits limited influence on the decay of the filament thickness in the nonlinear evolution process of a viscoelastic jet, in contrast to its great enhancing effect on the linear instability of the jet. On the other hand, a radial electric field can induce axial non-uniformity of the first normal stress difference within the filament. Particularly, the magnitude of the first normal stress difference near the midpoint of the filament can be greatly decreased by a radial electric field. Decreasing the extensional stress by a radial electric field may found applications in spraying, spinning, liquid bridges and others. In addition, the effect of a radial electric field on the formation of satellite droplets is investigated on the parametric plane of the dimensionless wave number and the electrical Bond number. It is found that satellite droplets may be formed for a larger axial wave number at a larger radial electric field. The present study helps us gain insight into the nonlinear instability characteristics of electrified viscoelastic liquid jets.

Keywords: non linear instability, one-dimensional models, radial electric fields, viscoelastic liquid jets

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Authors: Aboussalih Amira, Zarza Tahar, Fedaoui Kamel, Baroura Lazhar, Hammoudi Salah

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316 L steel is a stainless steel frequently used in orthopedic surgery; in the design of implants (hip, knee, shoulder, ankle, etc.), in dental surgery, cardiology, ophthalmology. Before any use, it is essential to predict the macroscopic phenomenological behavior of the material, and to analyze its response. The behavior of 316 L steel in low cycle fatigue, under uniaxial cyclic loading of tension/compression, producing significant plastic deformations leading to material damage. This investigation allowed us to characterize the behavior of the 316L steel employed in the locking of the compression plates (LCP), of which they are generally used in orthopedics to stabilize the fractured bone parts. And to perceive the phenomenon of Ratcheting leading to the damage of LCP by an excess of plastic deformation under nonsymmetrical alternated imposed constraint in low cycle fatigue.

Keywords: 316L SS, locking compression plate, low cycle fatigue, ratcheting

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Authors: Ria M. Caramoan, Analiza P. Rollon, Karl N. Vergel

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The Simple Interactive Models for Better Air Quality (SIM-air) is an integrated approach model that allows the available information to support the integrated urban air quality management. This study utilized the vehicular air pollution information system module of SIM-air for the assessment of vehicular emissions in Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon City, Philippines. The main objective of the study is to assess and predict the contribution of different types of vehicles to the vehicular emissions in terms of PM₁₀, SOₓ, and NOₓ at different policy and technology scenarios. For the base year 2017, the results show vehicular emissions of 735.46 tons of PM₁₀, 108.90 tons of SOₓ, and 2,101.11 tons of NOₓ. Motorcycle is the major source of particulates contributing about 52% of the PM₁₀ emissions. Meanwhile, Public Utility Jeepneys contribute 27% of SOₓ emissions and private cars using gasoline contribute 39% of NOₓ emissions. Ambient air quality monitoring was also conducted in the study area for the standard parameters of PM₁₀, S0₂, and NO₂. Results show an average of 88.11 µg/Ncm, 47.41 µg/Ncm and 22.54 µg/Ncm for PM₁₀, N0₂, and SO₂, respectively, all were within the DENR National Ambient Air Quality Guideline Values. Future emissions of PM₁₀, NOₓ, and SOₓ are estimated at different scenarios. Results show that in the year 2030, PM₁₀ emissions will be increased by 186.2%. NOₓ emissions and SOₓ emissions will also be increased by 38.9% and 5.5%, without the implementation of the scenarios.

Keywords: ambient air quality, emissions inventory, mobile air pollution, vehicular emissions

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Authors: Sunatda Arayachukiat, Shogo Nobukawa, Masayuki Yamaguchi

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A new self-healing material was developed utilizing molecular entanglements for poly(vinyl butyral) (PVB) containing plasticizers. It was found that PVB shows autonomic self-healing behavior even below the glass transition temperature Tg because of marked molecular motion at surface. Moreover, the plasticizer addition enhances the chain mobility, leading to good healing behavior.

Keywords: Poly(vinyl butyral) (PVB), rheological properties, self-healing behaviour, molecular diffusion

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Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

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Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

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This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10- pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping, even though included water from the natural river and released flow from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013. Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3 proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011. Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, HMS, pumping stations, cascade weirs

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Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

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Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

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Authors: Halima Akhtar, Abhijeet Chandra

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The paper attempts to analyze the factors that influence the Consumer Behavior to purchase apparel through the internet. The intentions to buy apparels online were based on in terms of user style, orientation, size and reputation of the merchant, social influence, perceived information utility, perceived ease of use, perceived pleasure and attractiveness and perceived trust and risk. The basic framework used was Technology acceptance model to explain apparels acceptance. A survey was conducted to gather the data from 200 people. The measures and hypotheses were analyzed using Correlation testing and would be further validated by the Structural Equation Modelling. The implications of the findings for theory and practice could be used by marketers of online apparel websites. Based on the values obtained, we can conclude that the factors such as social influence, Perceived information utility, attractiveness and trust influence the decision for a user to buy apparels online. The major factors which are found to influence an online apparel buying decision are ease of use, attractiveness that a website can offer and the trust factor which a user shares with the website.

Keywords: E-tailers, consumer behaviour, technology acceptance model, structural modelling

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Authors: Yonwaba Atyosi, Moses Cho, Abel Ramoelo, Nobuhle Majozi, Cecilia Masemola, Yoliswa Mkhize

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Spectroscopy has been widely used to understand the hyperspectral remote sensing of soils. Accurate and efficient measurement of soil moisture is essential for precision agriculture. The aim of this study was to understand the spectral behavior of soil at different soil water content levels and identify the significant spectral bands for soil moisture content retrieval at field-scale. The study consisted of 60 soil samples from a maize farm, divided into four different treatments representing different moisture levels. Spectral signatures were measured for each sample in laboratory under artificial light using an Analytical Spectral Device (ASD) spectrometer, covering a wavelength range from 350 nm to 2500 nm, with a spectral resolution of 1 nm. The results showed that the absorption features at 1450 nm, 1900 nm, and 2200 nm were particularly sensitive to soil moisture content and exhibited strong correlations with the water content levels. Continuum removal was developed in the R programming language to enhance the absorption features of soil moisture and to precisely understand its spectral behavior at different water content levels. Statistical analysis using partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were performed to quantify the correlation between the spectral bands and soil moisture content. This study provides insights into the spectral behavior of soil at different water content levels and identifies the significant spectral bands for soil moisture content retrieval. The findings highlight the potential of spectroscopy for non-destructive and rapid soil moisture measurement, which can be applied to various fields such as precision agriculture, hydrology, and environmental monitoring. However, it is important to note that the spectral behavior of soil can be influenced by various factors such as soil type, texture, and organic matter content, and caution should be taken when applying the results to other soil systems. The results of this study showed a good agreement between measured and predicted values of Soil Moisture Content with high R2 and low root mean square error (RMSE) values. Model validation using independent data was satisfactory for all the studied soil samples. The results has significant implications for developing high-resolution and precise field-scale soil moisture retrieval models. These models can be used to understand the spatial and temporal variation of soil moisture content in agricultural fields, which is essential for managing irrigation and optimizing crop yield.

Keywords: soil moisture content retrieval, precision agriculture, continuum removal, remote sensing, machine learning, spectroscopy

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

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Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Tomaž Tollazzi, Matjaž Šraml, Chiara Gruden, Marko Renčelj

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Motorcycle riders are an increasing group of road users. The intrinsic characteristics of powered two-wheelers (PTW) allow them to be particularly flexible, both in urban and extra-urban environments. Nevertheless, crash statistics indicate that riders involved in road accidents are highly likely to suffer severe injuries, underlining the vulnerability of this group of road users. An element that can greatly affect the safety of PTW users is road design, as roads are usually designed for two-track vehicles (cars, buses, and lorries) and usually do not consider the needs of PTWs. Additionally, handling a motorcycle is quite different from driving a car; thus, the behavior of riders is different from that of drivers. The aim of this research was to compare how different road designs are perceived by riders and drivers and to preliminarily assess if riders’ behavior and attention allocation are related. For this research, an eye-tracking experiment was developed outdoors. Both drivers and riders travelled along a route comprising four different road designs and various road layouts, and the output was analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Although it was not possible to carry out a statistical analysis due to the limited number of participants, the results demonstrate that there is a difference in the gaze behavior of drivers and riders, with the latter being far more focused on the left-hand side of the road and concentrating on defined elements of road design. Furthermore, the experiment demonstrated that a higher number of fixations is related to lower speeds. Finally, it was noted that both kinds of road users focus well on the carriageway, leading to the conclusion that the indications given through road markings may be much more effective than vertical signalization, which has rarely been observed.

Keywords: road safety, powered two-wheelers, eye-tracking, gaze behavior

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Authors: Hyun-Ju Oh, Soon-Rim Suh, Mihan Kim

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The steady and rapid increase of the older population is a global phenomenon. Chronic diseases and disabilities are increased due to aging. In general, exercise has been known to be most effective in preventing and managing chronic back pain. However, it is hard for the older women to initiate and maintain the exercise. Transtheoretical model (TTM) is one of the theories explain behavioral changes such as exercise. The application of the program considering the stage of behavior change is effective for the elderly woman to start and maintain the exercise. The purpose of this study was to develop TTM based exercise program and to examine its effect for elderly women with chronic back-pain. For the program evaluation, the non-equivalent control pre-posttest design was applied. The independent variable of this study is exercise intervention program. The contents of the program were constructed considering the characteristics of the elderly women with chronic low back pain, focusing on the process of change, the stage of change by the previous studies. The developed exercise program was applied to the elderly women with chronic low back pain in the planning stage and the preparation stage. The subjects were 50 older women over 65 years of age with chronic back-pain who did not practice regular exercise. The experimental group (n=25) received the 8weeks TTM based exercise program. The control group received the book which named low back pain management. Data were collected at three times: before the exercise intervention, right after the intervention, and 4weeks after the intervention. The dependent variables were the processes of change, decisional balance, exercise self-efficacy, back-pain, depression and muscle strength. The results of this study were as follows. Processes of change (<.001), pros of decisional balance (<.001), exercise self-efficacy (<.001), back pain (<.001), depression (<.001), muscle strength (<.001) were higher in the experimental group than in the control group right after the program and 4weeks after the programs. The results of this study show that applying the TTM based exercise program increases the use of the change process, increases the exercise self-efficacy, increases the stage of changing the exercise behavior and strengthens the muscular strength by lowering the degree of pain and depression Respectively. The significance of the study was to confirm the effect of continuous exercise by maintaining regular exercise habits by applying exercise program of the transtheoretical model to the chronic low back pain elderly with exercise intention.

Keywords: chronic back pain, elderly, exercise, women

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Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

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Authors: Weikang Gong, Chunhua Li

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Dynamics plays an essential role in function exertion of proteins. Elastic network model (ENM), a harmonic potential-based and cost-effective computational method, is a valuable and efficient tool for characterizing the intrinsic dynamical properties encoded in biomacromolecule structures and has been widely used to detect the large-amplitude collective motions of proteins. Gaussian network model (GNM) and anisotropic network model (ANM) are the two often-used ENM models. In recent years, many ENM variants have been proposed. Here, we propose a small but effective modification (denoted as modified mENM) to the multiscale ENM (mENM) where fitting weights of Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes with the least square method (LSM) is modified since it neglects the details of pairwise interactions. Then we perform its comparisons with the original mENM, traditional ENM, and parameter-free ENM (pfENM) on reproducing dynamical properties for the six representative proteins whose molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are available in http://mmb.pcb.ub.es/MoDEL/. In the results, for B-factor prediction, mENM achieves the best performance among the four ENM models. Additionally, it is noted that with the weights of the multiscale Kirchhoff/Hessian matrixes modified, interestingly, the modified mGNM/mANM still has a much better performance than the corresponding traditional ENM and pfENM models. As to dynamical cross-correlation map (DCCM) calculation, taking the data obtained from MD trajectories as the standard, mENM performs the worst while the results produced by the modified mENM and pfENM models are close to those from MD trajectories with the latter a little better than the former. Generally, ANMs perform better than the corresponding GNMs except for the mENM. Thus, pfANM and the modified mANM, especially the former, have an excellent performance in dynamical cross-correlation calculation. Compared with GNMs (except for mGNM), the corresponding ANMs can capture quite a number of positive correlations for the residue pairs nearly largest distances apart, which is maybe due to the anisotropy consideration in ANMs. Furtherly, encouragingly the modified mANM displays the best performance in capturing the functional motional modes, followed by pfANM and traditional ANM models, while mANM fails in all the cases. This suggests that the consideration of long-range interactions is critical for ANM models to produce protein functional motions. Based on the analyses, the modified mENM is a promising method in capturing multiple dynamical characteristics encoded in protein structures. This work is helpful for strengthening the understanding of the elastic network model and provides a valuable guide for researchers to utilize the model to explore protein dynamics.

Keywords: elastic network model, ENM, multiscale ENM, molecular dynamics, parameter-free ENM, protein structure

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Authors: Doaa Alhaboby

Abstract:

Behavior change is a complex process that often requires ongoing support and guidance. Telecoaching programs have emerged as effective tools in facilitating behavior change by providing personalized support remotely. This abstract explores the lessons learned from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluation of a telecoaching program focused on behavior change for Diabetics and discusses strategies for implementing these lessons to overcome the challenge of making physical activity a habit. The telecoaching program involved participants engaging in regular coaching sessions delivered via phone calls. These sessions aimed to address various aspects of behavior change, including goal setting, self-monitoring, problem-solving, and social support. Over the course of the program, participants received personalized guidance tailored to their unique needs and preferences. One of the key lessons learned from the RCT was the importance of engagement, readiness to change and the use of technology. Participants who set specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals were more likely to make sustained progress toward behavior change. Additionally, regular self-monitoring of behavior and progress was found to be instrumental in promoting accountability and motivation. Moving forward, implementing the lessons learned from the RCT can help individuals overcome the hardest part of behavior change: making physical activity a habit. One strategy is to prioritize consistency and establish a regular routine for physical activity. This may involve scheduling workouts at the same time each day or week and treating them as non-negotiable appointments. Additionally, integrating physical activity into daily life routines and taking into consideration the main challenges that can stop the process of integrating physical activity routines into the daily schedule can help make it more habitual. Furthermore, leveraging technology and digital tools can enhance adherence to physical activity goals. Mobile apps, wearable activity trackers, and online fitness communities can provide ongoing support, motivation, and accountability. These tools can also facilitate self-monitoring of behavior and progress, allowing individuals to track their activity levels and adjust their goals as needed. In conclusion, telecoaching programs offer valuable insights into behavior change and provide strategies for overcoming challenges, such as making physical activity a habit. By applying the lessons learned from these programs and incorporating them into daily life, individuals can cultivate sustainable habits that support their long-term health and well-being.

Keywords: lifestyle, behavior change, physical activity, chronic conditions

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