Search results for: financial numbers game

Authors: Paolo Guzzini, Emad Samuel M. Ebeid

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Bridges and Railways are critical infrastructures. Ensuring safety for transports using such assets is a primary goal as it directly impacts the lives of people. By the way, improving safety could require increased investments in O&M, and therefore optimizing resource usage for asset maintenance becomes crucial. Drones4Safety (D4S), a European project funded under the H2020 Research and Innovation Action (RIA) program, aims to increase the safety of the European civil transport by building a system that relies on 3 main pillars: • Drones operating autonomously in swarm mode; • Drones able to recharge themselves using inductive phenomena produced by transmission lines in the nearby of bridges and railways assets to be inspected; • Data acquired that are analyzed with AI-empowered algorithms for defect detection This paper describes the business model behind this disruptive project. The Business Model is structured in 2 parts: • The first part is focused on the design of the business model Canvas, to explain the value provided by the Drone4safety project; • The second part aims at defining a detailed financial analysis, with the target of calculating the IRR (Internal Return rate) and the NPV (Net Present Value) of the investment in a 7 years plan (2 years to run the project + 5 years post-implementation). As to the financial analysis 2 different points of view are assumed: • Point of view of the Drones4safety company in charge of designing, producing, and selling the new system; • Point of view of the Utility company that will adopt the new system in its O&M practices; Assuming the point of view of the Drones4safety company 3 scenarios were considered: • Selling the drones > revenues will be produced by the drones’ sales; • Renting the drones > revenues will be produced by the rental of the drones (with a time-based model); • Selling the data acquisition service > revenues will be produced by the sales of pictures acquired by drones; Assuming the point of view of a utility adopting the D4S system, a 4th scenario was analyzed taking into account the decremental costs related to the change of operation and maintenance practices. The paper will show, for both companies, what are the key parameters affecting most of the business model and which are the sustainable scenarios.

Keywords: a swarm of drones, AI, bridges, railways, drones4safety company, utility companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: R. Schweighoffer, N. Nagy, E. Reeves, B. Liebig

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Due to aging populations, the need for seamless palliative care provision is of central interest for western societies. An essential aspect of palliative care delivery is the quality of collaboration amongst palliative care providers. Therefore, the current research is based on Bainbridge’s conceptual framework, which provides an outline for the evaluation of palliative care provision. This study is the first one to investigate the predictive validity of spatial distribution on the quantity of interaction amongst various palliative care providers. Furthermore, based on the familiarity principle, we examine whether the extent of collaboration influences the perceived quality of collaboration among palliative care providers in urban versus rural areas of Switzerland. Based on a population-representative survey of Swiss palliative care providers, the results of the current study show that professionals in densely populated areas report higher absolute numbers of interactions and are more satisfied with their collaborative practice. This indicates that palliative care providers who work in urban areas are better embedded into networks than their counterparts in more rural areas. The findings are especially important, considering that efficient collaboration is a prerequisite to achieve satisfactory patient outcomes. Conclusively, measures should be taken to foster collaboration in weakly interconnected palliative care networks.

Keywords: collaboration, healthcare networks, palliative care, Switzerland

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Authors: M. Amoura, M. Benmoussa, N. Zeraibi

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The flow and heat transfer is an important phenomenon in engineering systems due to its wide application in electronic cooling, heat exchangers, double pane windows etc.. The enhancement of heat transfer in these systems is an essential topic from an energy saving perspective. Lower heat transfer performance when conventional fluids, such as water, engine oil and ethylene glycol are used hinders improvements in performance and causes a consequent reduction in the size of such systems. The use of solid particles as an additive suspended into the base fluid is a technique for heat transfer enhancement. Therefore, the heat transfer enhancement in a horizontal circular tube that is maintained at a constant temperature under laminar regime has been investigated numerically. A computational code applied to the problem by use of the finite volume method was developed. Nanofluid was made by dispersion of Al2O3 nanoparticles in pure water and ethylene glycol. Results illustrate that the suspended nanoparticles increase the heat transfer with an increase in the nanoparticles volume fraction and for a considered range of Reynolds numbers. On the other hand, the heat transfer is very sensitive to the base fluid.

Keywords: Al2O3 nanoparticles, circular tube, heat transfert enhancement, numerical simulation

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Authors: Tamas Hartvanyi, Zoltan Andras Nagy, Miklos Szabo

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The dynamic and static capacity are two opposing aspect of warehouse design. Static capacity optimization aims to maximize the space-usage for goods storing, while dynamic capacity needs more free place to handling them. They are opposing by the building structure and the area utilization. According to Pareto principle: the 80% of the goods are the 20% of the variety. From the origin of this statement, it worth to store the big amount of same products by fulfill the space with minimal corridors, meanwhile the rest 20% of goods have the 80% variety of the whole range, so there is more important to be fast-reachable instead of the space utilizing, what makes the space fulfillment numbers worse. The warehouse design decisions made in present practice by intuitive and empiric impressions, the planning method is formed to one selected technology, making this way the structure of the warehouse homogeny. Of course the result can’t be optimal for the inhomogeneous demands. A new innovative model based on our research will be introduced in this paper to describe the technic capacities, what makes possible to define optimal cluster of technology. It is able to optimize the space fulfillment and the dynamic operation together with this cluster application.

Keywords: warehouse, warehouse capacity, warehouse design method, warehouse optimization

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Authors: Greg Zimmerman

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Background: Major depression is a common illness that affects millions of people globally. It is the leading cause of disability and is projected to become the number one cause of the global burden of disease by 2030. Many of those who suffer from depression also suffer from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Acupuncture has been shown to help depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing the risk of IBS in patients with depression. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with depression through the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Propensity score matching was used to match equal numbers (n=32971) of the acupuncture cohort and no-acupuncture cohort based on characteristics including sex, age, baseline comorbidity, and medication. The Cox regression model was used to compare the hazard ratios (HRs) of IBS in the two cohorts. Results: The basic characteristics of the two groups were similar. The cumulative incidence of IBS was significantly lower in the acupuncture cohort than in the no-acupuncture cohort (Log-rank test, p<0.001). Conclusion: The results provided real-world evidence that acupuncture may have a beneficial effect on IBS risk reduction in patients with depression.

Keywords: acupuncture, depression, irritable bowel syndrome, national health insurance research database, real-world evidence

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Authors: Qian Huiya, Feng Lin

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The progressive collapse of reinforced concrete (RC) structures will cause huge casualties and property losses. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the ability of structures against progressive collapse accurately. This paper numerically investigated the effect of storey number on the mechanism and quantitative contribution of the Vierendeel action (VA) in progressive collapse under corner column removal scenario. First, finite element (FE) models of multi-storey RC frame structures were developed using LS-DYNA. Then, the accuracy of the modeling technique was validated by test results conducted by the authors. Last, the validated FE models were applied to investigated the structural behavior of the RC frames with different storey numbers from one to six storeys. Results found the multi-storey substructure formed additional plastic hinges at the beam ends near the corner column in the second to top storeys, and at the lower end of the corner column in the first storey. The average ultimate resistance of each storey of the multi-storey substructures were increased by 14.0% to 18.5% compared with that of the single-storey substructure experiencing no VA. The contribution of VA to the ultimate resistance was decreased with the increase of the storey number.

Keywords: progressive collapse, reinforced concrete structure, storey number, Vierendeel action

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Authors: Raymond Treacy, Paul Humphreys, Ronan McIvor, Trevor Cadden, Alan McKittrick

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This study employed event study methodology to examine the role of institutions, resources and dynamic capabilities in the relationship between the Environmental Management System ISO 14001 adoption and firm performance. Utilising financial data from 140 ISO 14001 certified firms and 320 non-certified firms, the results of the study suggested that the UK and Irish manufacturers were not implementing ISO 14001 solely to gain legitimacy. In contrast, the results demonstrated that firms were fully integrating the ISO 14001 standard within their operations as certified firms were able to improve both financial and operating performance when compared to non-certified firms. However, while there were significant and long lasting improvements for employee productivity, manufacturing cost efficiency, return on assets and sales turnover, the sample firms operating cycle and fixed asset efficiency displayed evidence of diminishing returns in the long-run, underlying the observation that no operating advantage based on incremental improvements can be everlasting. Hence, there is an argument for investing in dynamic capabilities which help renew and refresh the resource base and help the firm adapt to changing environments. Indeed, the results of the regression analysis suggest that dynamic capabilities for innovation acted as a moderator in the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. This, in turn, will have a significant and symbiotic influence on sustainability practices within the participating organisations. The study not only provides new and original insights, but demonstrates pragmatically how firms can take advantage of environmental management systems as a moderator to significantly enhance firm performance. However, while it was shown that firm innovation aided both short term and long term ROA performance, adaptive market capabilities only aided firms in the short-term at the marketing strategy deployment stage. Finally, the results have important implications for firms operating in an economic recession as the results suggest that firms should scale back investment in R&D while operating in an economic downturn. Conversely, under normal trading conditions, consistent and long term investments in R&D was found to moderate the relationship between ISO 14001 certification and firm performance. Hence, the results of the study have important implications for academics and management alike.

Keywords: supply chain management, environmental management systems, quality management, sustainability, firm performance

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Authors: Feride Eskin Bacaksiz, Arzu K. Harmanci Seren

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The problems about the working hours of nursing personnel, such as overworking, numbers of night or daytime shifts, is stated one of the most complained issues by nurses. Otherwise, besides of nursing shortage, absenteeism of nurses because of sickness, some other health problems, or other reasons enforces nurse managers to make working schedules. In this study, it was aimed to analyse and evaluate the working schedules of nurses working in public hospitals. Working schedule lists of nursing personnel for the months of October and November in two public hospitals were analysed and evaluated. Approvals were acquired from the head nurse managers. Descriptive and comparative analyses were used. Totally 36 lists were analysed from two hospitals. There were totally 416 nurses (manager nurse: 25, nurse: 391) and 6-28 (12.6, SD=5.34) nurses in each list. It was found that nurses were working 8 (42.5%), 12 (27.9%) and 16 (20%) hours, in inpatient clinics (74.8%). Totally 20.2% of the nurses were absent during analysing time due to the annual, paid or unpaid leaves. Nurses were generally working 20-112 hours (80.27, SD=11.92). Most of the nurses over worked 1.5-443 hours (47.436, SD=60.78) the year before that year. It was determined that 11.8% of the nurses (n: 49) were working only night shifts and 42.1% (n: 175) of the nurses were working only daytime shifts. It was found that there were inequities in the working hours of nurses.

Keywords: nurse, public hospitals, working conditions, working schedules

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Authors: Ayodele Ajayi, John Ajayi

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This paper investigates the effect of corporate governance with a view to determining the relationship between board size and bank performance. Data for the study were obtained from the audited financial statements of five sampled banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Panel data technique was adopted and analysis was carried out with the use of multiple regression and pooled ordinary least square. Results from the study show that the larger the board size, the greater the profit implying that corporate governance is positively correlated with bank performance.

Keywords: corporate governance, banks performance, board size, pooled data

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

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This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Pooya Niksiar, Ali Ashrafizadeh, Mehrzad Shams, Amir Hossein Madani

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There are many computationally demanding applications in science and engineering which need efficient algorithms implemented on high performance computers. Recently, Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) have drawn much attention as compared to the traditional CPU-based hardware and have opened up new improvement venues in scientific computing. One particular application area is Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), in which mature CPU-based codes need to be converted to GPU-based algorithms to take advantage of this new technology. In this paper, numerical solutions of two classes of discrete fluid flow models via both CPU and GPU are discussed and compared. Test problems include an Eulerian model of a two-dimensional incompressible laminar flow case and a Lagrangian model of a two phase flow field. The CUDA programming standard is used to employ an NVIDIA GPU with 480 cores and a C++ serial code is run on a single core Intel quad-core CPU. Up to two orders of magnitude speed up is observed on GPU for a certain range of grid resolution or particle numbers. As expected, Lagrangian formulation is better suited for parallel computations on GPU although Eulerian formulation represents significant speed up too.

Keywords: CFD, Eulerian formulation, graphics processing units, Lagrangian formulation

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Authors: Madhuresh Dwivedi, Navneet Singh Deora, Aastha Deswal, H. N. Mishra

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FT-NIR spectroscopy and electronic nose was used to study the kinetics of dough proofing. Spectroscopy was conducted with an optic probe in the diffuse reflectance mode. The dough leavening was carried out at different temperatures (25 and 35°C) and constant RH (80%). Spectra were collected in the range of wave numbers from 12,000 to 4,000 cm-1 directly on the samples, every 5 min during proofing, up to 2 hours. NIR spectra were corrected for scatter effect and second order derivatization was done to transform the spectra. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied for the leavening process and process kinetics was calculated. PCA was performed on data set and loadings were calculated. For leavening, four absorption zones (8,950-8,850, 7,200-6,800, 5,250-5,150 and 4,700-4,250 cm-1) were involved in describing the process. Simultaneously electronic nose was also used for understanding the development of odour compounds during fermentation. The electronic nose was able to differential the sample on the basis of aroma generation at different time during fermentation. In order to rapidly differentiate samples based on odor, a Principal component analysis is performed and successfully demonstrated in this study. The result suggests that electronic nose and FT-NIR spectroscopy can be utilized for the online quality control of the fermentation process during leavening of bread dough.

Keywords: FT-NIR, dough, e-nose, proofing, principal component analysis

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Authors: Mahmoud Aly, Mohamed Ismail, Mohamed Badereldin, Amro Mostafa

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Introduction: The models of soul houses were appeared in the prehistory, old kingdom, and middle kingdom period. They represented the imagination of the deceased about his house in the afterlife, some of these soul houses were two floors, and the study will examine five models of soul houses which were discovered near Saqqara site by an Egyptian mission. These models had been transferred to The Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) to be ready to display at the new museum. We focus upon five models of soul houses (GEM Numbers, 1276,1280,1281,1282,8711) they related to the old kingdom period. These models were all made of pottery, the five models have oval shape and were decorated with relief. Methodology: The study will focus on the development of soul houses during the different periods in ancient Egypt and the kinds of offerings which will reflect the economic situation in the Egyptian society and kinds of oils which were famous in ancient Egypt. Conclusion: This research focuses on the function of soul house and the kind of offerings which were put in it, This study will be useful for the heritage and ancient civilizations, specially when we talk about opening new museums like The Grand Egyptian Museum, which will display a new collection of soul houses.

Keywords: archaeology study, grand egyptian museum, relief, soul houses

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Authors: Corina E. Niculaescu, Ivan Sangiorgi, Adrian R. Bell

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been life-changing in many aspects of people’s daily and social lives, but has it also changed attitudes towards investments? This paper explores the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on retail investors’ levels of investments in the U.S. during the first COVID-19 wave in summer 2020. This is an unprecedented health crisis, which could lead to changes in investment behavior, including irrational behavior in retail investors. As such, this study aims to inform policymakers of what happened to investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic so that they can protect retail investors during extreme events like a global health crisis. The study aims to answer two research questions. First, was the level of investments affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and if so, why? Second, how were investments affected by retail investors’ personal experience with COVID-19? The research analysis is based on primary survey data collected on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform from a representative sample of U.S. respondents. Responses were collected between the 15th of July and 28th of August 2020 from 1,148 U.S. retail investors who hold mutual fund investments and a savings account. The research explores whether being affected by COVID-19, change in the level of savings, and risk capacity can explain the change in the level of investments by using regression analysis. The dependent variable is changed in investments measured as decrease, no change, and increase. For this reason, the methodology used is ordered probit regression models. The results show that retail investors in the U.S. increased their investments during the first wave of COVID-19, which is unexpected as investors are usually more cautious in crisis times. Moreover, the study finds that those who were affected personally by COVID-19 (e.g., tested positive) were more likely to increase their investments, which is irrational behavior and contradicts expectations. An increase in the level of savings and risk capacity was also associated with increased investments. Overall, the findings show that having personal experience with a health crisis can have an impact on one’s investment decisions as well. Those findings are important for both retail investors and policymakers, especially now that online trading platforms have made trading easily accessible to everyone. There are risks and potential irrational behaviors associated with investment decisions during times of crisis, and it is important that retail investors are aware of them before making financial decisions.

Keywords: COVID-19, financial decision-making, health crisis retail investors, survey

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Beata Wentura-Dudek

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In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.

Keywords: lotteries, loyalty programs, competitions, bonus sales, rebate campaigns

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Authors: Maali Kachouri, Anis Jarboui

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We focus on the causal relationship between governance and information transparency as well as interrelation among the various governance mechanisms. This paper employs a simultaneous equations approach to show this relationship in the Tunisian context. Based on an 8-year dataset, our sample covers 28 listed companies over 2006-2013. Our findings suggest that internal and external governance mechanisms are interdependent. Moreover, in order to analyze the causal effect between information transparency and governance mechanisms, we found evidence that information transparency tends to increase good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: simultaneous equations approach, transparency, causal relationship, corporate governance

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Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, J.-P. Krause, S. Bürk

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Most of the drugs used for pharmaceutical purposes are poorly water-soluble drugs. About 40% of all newly discovered drugs are lipophilic and the numbers of lipophilic drugs seem to increase more and more. Drug delivery systems such as nanoparticles, micelles or liposomes are applied to improve their solubility and thus their bioavailability. Besides various techniques of solubilization, oil-in-water emulsions are often used to incorporate lipophilic drugs into the oil phase. To stabilize emulsions surface active substances (surfactants) are generally used. An alternative method to avoid the application of surfactants was of great interest. One possibility is to develop O/W-emulsion without any addition of surface active agents or the so called “surfactant-free emulsion or SFE”. The aim of this study was to develop and characterize SFE as a drug carrier by varying the production conditions. Lidocaine base was used as a model drug. The injection method was developed. Effects of ultrasound as well as of temperature on the properties of the emulsion were studied. Particle sizes and release were determined. The long-term stability up to 30 days was performed. The results showed that the surfactant-free O/W emulsions with pharmaceutical oil as drug carrier can be produced.

Keywords: emulsion, lidocaine, Miglyol, size, surfactant, light scattering, release, injection, ultrasound, stability

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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Fatalities of Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) on rural roads are usually higher than that on urban roads. The likelihood of traffic accidents may increase with the presence of factors that are associated with the rural type of community such as long-distance, road type, road geometry (e.g., curves and steepens), poor lighting, terrain, obstacles (e.g., animals crossing, boulders or tree branches), heavy truck traffic, weather conditions, and road flaws. Most of these factors are present on the rural roads of Oman. As many cities in Oman are surrounded by mountains and connected by rural roads, this is of great concern. In this paper, the causes of traffic crashes on rural roads in Oman are analyzed. The fatality rate of traffic deaths on rural roads is compared with the fatality rate on urban roads for different regions in Oman. Statistical data and police reports show that the leading cause of RTCs and deaths on rural roads is vehicle speeding, especially on long-distance roads. It is shown that crashes on rural roads result in higher fatalities than crashes on urban roads. In comparison to speed, the numbers of RTCs and deaths that resulted from other causes are small.

Keywords: causes of traffic crashes, road safety, road traffic crash, rural roads

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Authors: Amir Abbas Kamanbedast, Abbas Saki

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Stepped spillways are composed of several steps, which start from around the spillway crest and continue to the downstream heel. Recently, such spillways have been receiving increasing attention due to the significant effect of the associated stairs on the flow’s rate of energy dissipation. Energy dissipation in the stepped spillways across the overflow can be explained by the watercourse contact with the stairs (i.e., large, harsh surfaces). In this context, less energy must be dissipated at the end of the spillway, and, hence, a smaller (less expensive) energy-dissipating structure is required. In this study, a stepped spillway was simulated using the model Fluent 3, and a standard model was used to model the flow disturbance. For this purpose, the energy dissipation from the stepped spillway was investigated in terms of the different numbers of stairs involved. Using k-ε, the disturbances of the numerical method for velocity and of flow depth at the downstream overflow were obtained, and, then, the energy that was dissipated throughout the spillway was calculated. Our results showed that an increase in the number of stairs can considerably increase the amount of energy dissipation for the fixed, upstream energy. In addition, the results of the numerical analyses were provided as isobar and velocity curves so points that were sensitive to cavitation could be determined.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent software, turbulence model of k-ε, VOF model

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Authors: Sansanee Sansiribhan, Anusorn Rattanathanaophat, Chirapan Nuengchaknin

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The potential feasibility of a 9.5 MWe capacity rice straw power plant project in Thailand was studied by evaluating the rice straw resource. The result showed that Thailand had a high rice straw biomass potential at the provincial level, especially, the provinces in the central, northeastern and western Thailand, which could feasibly develop plants. The economic feasibility of project was also investigated. The financial feasibility is also evaluated based on two important factors in the project, i.e., NPV ≥ 0 and IRR ≥ 11%. It was found that the rice straw power plant project at 9.5 MWe was financially feasible with the cost of fuel in the range of 30.6-47.7 USD/t.

Keywords: power plant, project feasibility, rice straw, Thailand

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Authors: Hachmi Ben Ameur, Jean Luc Prigent

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We propose an extension of the CPPI method, which is based on conditional floors. In this framework, we examine in particular the TIPP and margin based strategies. These methods allow keeping part of the past gains and protecting the portfolio value against future high drawdowns of the financial market. However, as for the standard CPPI method, the investor can benefit from potential market rises. To control the risk of such strategies, we introduce both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures. For each of these criteria, we show that the conditional floor must be higher than a lower bound. We illustrate these results, for a quite general ARCH type model, including the EGARCH (1,1) as a special case.

Keywords: CPPI, conditional floor, ARCH, VaR, expected ehortfall

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Authors: Aisling Gough, Ruth F. Hunter, Jianjun Tang, Sarah F. Brennan, Oliver Smith, Mark A. Tully, Chris Patterson, Alberto Longo, George Hutchinson, Lindsay Prior, David French, Jean Adams, Emma McIntosh, Frank Kee

Abstract:

Background: As a large proportion of the UK workforce is employed in sedentary occupations, worksite interventions have the potential to contribute significantly to the health of the population. The UK Government is currently encouraging the use of financial incentives to promote healthier lifestyles but there is a dearth of evidence regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of incentive schemes to promote physical activity in the workplace. Methods: A large cluster RCT is currently underway, incorporating nested behavioural economic field experiments and process evaluation, to evaluate the effectiveness of a Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme. Office-based employees were recruited from large public sector organisations in Lisburn and Belfast (Northern Ireland) and randomised to an Intervention or Control group. Participants in the Intervention Group were encouraged to take part in 150 minutes of physical activity per week through provision of financial incentives (retailer vouchers) to those who met physical activity targets throughout the course of the 6 month intervention. Minutes of physical activity were monitored when participants passed by sensors (holding a keyfob) placed along main walking routes, parks and public transport stops nearby their workplace. Participants in the Control Group will complete the same outcome assessments (waiting-list control). The primary outcome is steps per day measured via pedometers (7 days). Secondary outcomes include health and wellbeing (Short Form-8, EuroQol-5D-5L, Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well Being Scale), and work absenteeism and presenteeism. Data will be collected at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Information on PAL card & website usage, voucher downloads and redemption of vouchers will also be collected as part of a comprehensive process evaluation. Results: In total, 853 participants have been recruited from 9 workplaces in Lisburn, 12 buildings within the Stormont Estate, Queen’s University Belfast and Belfast City Hospital. Participants have been randomised to intervention and control groups. Baseline and 6-month data for the Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme has been collected. Findings regarding the effectiveness of the intervention from the 6-month follow-up data will be presented. Discussion: This study will address the gap in knowledge regarding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a workplace-based financial incentive scheme to promote a healthier lifestyle. As the UK workforce is increasingly sedentary, workplace-based physical activity interventions have significant potential in terms of encouraging employees to partake in physical activity during the working day which could lead to substantial improvements in physical activity levels overall. Implications: If a workplace based physical activity intervention such as this proves to be both effective and cost-effective, there is great potential to contribute significantly to the health and wellbeing of the workforce in the future. Workplace-based physical activity interventions have the potential to improve the physical and mental health of employees which may in turn lead to economic benefits for the employer, such as reduction in rates of absenteeism and increased productivity.

Keywords: behaviour change, cluster randomised controlled trial, loyalty scheme, physical activity

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Authors: Escada A. L. A., Pereira C. A., Jorge A. O. C., Alves Claro A. P. R.

Abstract:

In the present work, a susceptibility and efficacy of the Ti–7.5Mo alloy nanotube and Ti–7.5Mo alloy to bacterial biofilm formation after surface treatment was evaluated. The Ti–7.5Mo alloy was obtained in arc furnace under an argon atmosphere. Ingots were then homogenized under vacuum at 1100 ◦C for 86.4 ks to eliminate chemical segregation and after cold worked discs were cutting. Nanotubes were processed using anodic oxidation in 0.25% NH4F electrolyte solution. Biofilms were grown in discs immersed in sterile brain heart infusion broth (BHI) containing 5% sucrose, inoculated with microbial suspension (106 cells/ml) and incubated for 5 days. Next, the discs were placed in tubes with sterile physiological solution 0.9% sodium chloride (NaCl) and sonicated for to disperse the biofilms. Tenfold serial dilutions were carried and aliquots seeded in selective agar, which were then incubated for 48 h. Then, the numbers CFU/ml (log 10) were counted and analyzed statistically. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) on discs with biofilms groupswas performed, atomic force microscope (AFM) and contact angle. The results show that there is no difference in bacterial adhesion between Ti–7.5Mo alloy nanotube pure titanium and Ti–7.5Mo alloy.

Keywords: biofilm, titanium alloy, brain heart infusion, scanning electron microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

Abstract:

Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: activity-based benefit assessment approach, input mixed, output rate, wet blue

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Sarah Ryu

Abstract:

Agricultural methods and ecological approaches employed by the pre-colonial Mayans may provide valuable insights into forest management and viable alternatives for resource sustainability in the face of major deforestation across Central and South America.Using a combination of observation data collected from the modern indigenous inhabitants near Mixco in Guatemala and historical data, this study was able to create a holistic picture of how the Maya maintained their ecosystems. Surveys and observations were conducted in the field, over a period of twelve weeks across two years. Geographic and archaeological data for this area was provided by Guatemalan organizations such as the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala. Observations of current indigenous populations around Mixco showed that they adhered to traditional Mayan methods of agriculture, such as terrace construction and arboriculture. Rather than planting one cash crop as was done by the Spanish, indigenous peoples practice agroforestry, cultivating forests that would provide trees for construction material, wild plant foods, habitat for game, and medicinal herbs. The emphasis on biodiversity prevented deforestation and created a sustainable balance between human consumption and forest regrowth. Historical data provided by MayaSim showed that the Mayans successfully maintained their ecosystems from about 800BCE to 700CE. When the Mayans practiced natural resource conservation and cultivated a harmonious relationship with the forest around them, they were able to thrive and prosper alongside nature. Having lasted over a thousand years, the Mayan empire provides a valuable lesson in sustainability and human attitudes towards the environment.

Keywords: biodiversity, forestry, mayan, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Yi-Ping Lo, Shi-Yao Wei, Chih-Chun Ma

Abstract:

Since Google launched Google Glass in 2012, numbers of commercial wearable devices were released, such as smart belt, smart band, smart shoes, smart clothes ... etc. However, most of these devices perform as sensors to show the readings of measurements and few of them provide the interactive feedback to the user. Furthermore, these devices are single task devices which are not able to communicate with each other. In this paper a new health promotion system, Ubiquitous Life People Informatics Engine (U-Life PIE), will be presented. This engine consists of People Informatics Engine (PIE) and the interactive user interface. PIE collects all the data from the compatible devices, analyzes this data comprehensively and communicates between devices via various application programming interfaces. All the data and informations are stored on the PIE unit, therefore, the user is able to view the instant and historical data on their mobile devices any time. It also provides the real-time hands-free feedback and instructions through the user interface visually, acoustically and tactilely. These feedback and instructions suggest the user to adjust their posture or habits in order to avoid the physical injuries and prevent illness.

Keywords: machine learning, wearable devices, user interface, user experience, internet of things

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Yi-cheng Chen, Ming-jum Guo, Yang-ru Chen

Abstract:

Background and Objective: For safety and fair during basketball competition, FIBA proposes the definite level of physical functions in wooden surface system (WSS). There are existing various between different systems in indoor-stadium, so the aim of this study want to know how many effects in different WSS, especially for effects of ground reaction force(GRF) when player jumped. Materials and Methods: 12 participants acted counter-movement jump (CMJ) on 7 different surfaces, include 6 WSSs by 3 types rubber shock absorber pad (SAP) on cross or parallel fixed, and 1 rigid ground. GRFs of takeoff and landing had been recorded from an AMTI force platform when all participants acted vertical CMJs by counter-balance design. All data were analyzed using the one-way ANOVA to evaluate whether the test variable differed significantly between surfaces. The significance level was set at α=0.05. Results: There were non-significance in GRF between surfaces when participants taken off. For GRF of landing, we found WSS with cross fixed SAP are harder than parallel fixed. Although there were also non-significance when participant was landing on cross or parallel fixed surfaces, but there have test variable differed significantly between WSS with parallel fixed to rigid ground. In the study, landing to WSS with the hardest SAP, the GRF also have test variable differed significantly to other WSS. Conclusion: Although official basketball competition is in the WSS certificated by FIBA, there are also exist the various in GRF under takeoff or landing, any player must to warm-up before game starting. Especially, there is unsafe situation when play basketball on uncertificated WSS.

Keywords: wooden surface system, counter-movement jump, ground reaction force, shock absorber pad

Procedia PDF Downloads 446