Search results for: rainfall magnitude and frequency

Authors: L. Maiza, A. Cantagrel, M. Forestier, G. Laucoin, T. Regali

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Evaluation of High Frequency Trading (HFT) impact on financial markets is very important for traders who use market analysis to detect winning transaction opportunity. Analysis of HFT data on tobacco commodity market is discussed here and interesting linear relationship has been shown between trading frequency and difference between averaged trading prices above and below considered trading frequency. This may open new perspectives on markets data understanding and could provide possible interpretation of Adam Smith invisible hand.

Keywords: financial market, high frequency trading, analysis, impacts, Adam Smith invisible hand

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Le Xuan Cau

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Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Keywords: ArcObjects SDK for NET, basin average value of FFPI, gridded basin flash flood potential index, GBFFPI map

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Fereshteh Pourmohammad, Mehdi Zare

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The city of Karaj, having a population of 2.2 millions (est. 2022) is located in the South West of Alborz Mountain Belt in Northern Iran. The region is known to be a highly active seismic zone. This study is focused on the geological and seismological analyses within a radius of 200 km from the center of Karaj. There are identified five seismic zones and seven linear seismic sources. The maximum magnitude was calculated for the seismic zones. Scine tghe seismicity catalog is incomplete, we have used a parametric-historic algorithm and the Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) method was used to calculate seismicity parameters, and the return periods and the probability frequency of recurrence of the earthquake magnitude in each zone obtained for 475-years return period. According to the calculations, the highest and lowest earthquake magnitudes of 7.6 and 6.2 were respectively obtained in Zones 1 and 4. This result is a new and extremely important in view point of earthquake risk in a densely population city. The maximum strong horizontal ground motion for the 475-years return period 0.42g and for 2475-year return period 0.70g also the maximum strong vertical ground motion for 475-years return period 0.25g and 2475-years return period 0.44g was calculated using attenuation relationships. These acceleration levels are new, and are obtained to be about 25% higher than presented values in the Iranian building code.

Keywords: seismic zones, ground motion, return period, hazard analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Yufu Yin, Tao Lin, Shanghong Zhao, Zihang Zhu, Xuan Li, Wei Jiang, Qiurong Zheng, Hui Wang

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In this paper, a frequency-dependent and tunable phase shifter is proposed and numerically analyzed. The key devices are the dual-polarization binary phase shift keying modulator (DP-BPSK) and the fiber Bragg grating (FBG). The phase-frequency response of the FBG is employed to determine the frequency-dependent phase shift. The simulation results show that a linear phase shift of the recovered output microwave signal which depends on the frequency of the input RF signal is achieved. In addition, by adjusting the power of the RF signal, the full range phase shift from 0° to 360° can be realized. This structure shows the spurious free dynamic range (SFDR) of 70.90 dB·Hz^2/3 and 72.11 dB·Hz^2/3 under different RF powers.

Keywords: microwave photonics, phase shifter, spurious free dynamic range, frequency-dependent

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: O. S. Omorogiuwa, E. J. Omozusi

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The monitoring of spectrum usage and signal identification, using cognitive radio, is done to identify frequencies that are vacant for reuse. It has been established that ‘internet of things’ device uses secondary frequency which is free, thereby facing the challenge of interference from other users, where some primary frequencies are not being utilised. The design was done by analysing a specific frequency spectrum, checking if all the frequency stations that range from 87.5-108 MHz are presently being used in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. From the results, it was noticed that by using Software Defined Radio/Simulink, we were able to identify vacant frequencies in the range of frequency under consideration. Also, we were able to use the significance of energy detection threshold to reuse this vacant frequency spectrum, when the cognitive radio displays a zero output (that is decision H0), meaning that the channel is unoccupied. Hence, the analysis was able to find the spectrum hole and identify how it can be reused.

Keywords: spectrum, interference, telecommunication, cognitive radio, frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: M. Münch, R. Brandt

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Martensitic steels with an ultimate tensile strength beyond 2000 MPa are applied in the powertrain of vehicles due to their excellent fatigue strength and high creep resistance. However, the creep controlling mechanism in martensitic steels at ambient temperatures up to 423 K is not evident. The purpose of this study is to review the low temperature creep (LTC) behavior of martensitic steels at temperatures from 363 K to 523 K. Thus, the validity of a logarithmic creep law is reviewed and the stress and temperature dependence of the creep parameters α and β are revealed. Furthermore, creep tests are carried out, which include stepped changes in temperature or stress, respectively. On one hand, the change of the creep rate due to a temperature step provides information on the magnitude of the activation energy of the LTC controlling mechanism and on the other hand, the stress step approach provides information on the magnitude of the activation volume. The magnitude, the temperature dependency, and the stress dependency of both material specific activation parameters may deliver a significant contribution to the disclosure of the nature of the LTC rate controlling mechanism.

Keywords: activation parameters, creep mechanisms, high strength steels, low temperature creep

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Hossein Abbasi

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The stability is an important topic to plan and manage the energy in the microgrids as the same as the conventional power systems. The voltage and frequency stability is one of the most important issues recently studied in microgrids. The objectives of this paper are the modelling and designing of the components and optimal controllers for the voltage and frequency control of the AC/DC hybrid microgrid under the different disturbances. Since the PI controllers have the advantages of simple structure and easy implementation, so they are designed and modeled in this paper. The harmony search (HS) algorithm is used to optimize the controllers’ parameters. According to the achieved results, the PI controllers have a good performance in voltage and frequency control of the microgrid.

Keywords: frequency control, HS algorithm, microgrid, PI controller, voltage control

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: K. H. Teng, A. Shaw, M. Ateeq, A. Al-Shamma'a, S. Wylie, S. N. Kazi, B. T. Chew

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Numerical and experimental of using novel electromagnetic wave technique to detect water hardness concentration has been presented in this paper. Simulation is powerful and efficient engineering methods which allow for a quick and accurate prediction of various engineering problems. The RF module is used in this research to predict and design electromagnetic wave propagation and resonance effect of a guided wave to detect water hardness concentration in term of frequency domain, eigenfrequency, and mode analysis. A cylindrical cavity resonator is simulated and designed in the electric field of fundamental mode (TM010). With the finite volume method, the three-dimensional governing equations were discretized. Boundary conditions for the simulation were the cavity materials like aluminum, two ports which include transmitting and receiving port, and assumption of vacuum inside the cavity. The design model was success to simulate a fundamental mode and extract S21 transmission signal within 2.1 – 2.8 GHz regions. The signal spectrum under effect of port selection technique and dielectric properties of different water concentration were studied. It is observed that the linear increment of magnitude in frequency domain when concentration increase. The numerical results were validated closely by the experimentally available data. Hence, conclusion for the available COMSOL simulation package is capable of providing acceptable data for microwave research.

Keywords: electromagnetic wave technique, frequency domain, signal spectrum, water hardness concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: N. David, H. O. Gao

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Air pollution is a serious environmental threat on a global scale and can cause harm to human health, morbidity and premature mortality. Reliable monitoring and control systems are therefore necessary to develop coping skills against the hazards associated with this phenomenon. However, existing environmental monitoring means often do not provide a sufficient response due to practical and technical limitations. Commercial microwave links that form the infrastructure for transmitting data between cell phone towers can be harnessed to map rain at high tempo-spatial resolution. Rainfall causes a decrease in the signal strength received by these wireless communication links allowing it to be used as a built-in sensor network to map the phenomenon. In this study, we point to the potential that lies in this system to indirectly monitor areas where air pollution is reduced. The relationship between pollutant wash-off and rainfall provides an opportunity to acquire important spatial information about air quality using existing cell-phone tower signals. Since the density of microwave communication networks is high relative to any dedicated sensor arrays, it could be possible to rely on this available observation tool for studying precipitation scavenging on air pollutants, for model needs and more.

Keywords: air pollution, commercial microwave links, rainfall, washout

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Arega Shumetie Ademe, Belay Kassa, Degye Goshu, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo

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Currently the world economy is suffering from one critical problem, climate change. Some studies done before identified that impact of the problem is region specific means in some part of the world (temperate zone) there is improvement in agricultural performance but in some others like in the tropics there is drastic reduction in crop production and crop income. Climate variability is becoming dominant cause of short-term fluctuation in rain-fed agricultural production and income of developing countries. The purely rain-fed Ethiopian agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to the risks and impacts of climate variability. Thus, this study tried to identify impact of climate variability on crop income of smallholders in Ethiopia. The research used eight rounded unbalanced panel data from 1994- 2014 collected from six villages in the study area. After having all diagnostic tests the research used fixed effect method of regression. Based on the regression result rainfall and temperature deviation from their respective long term averages have negative and significant effect on crop income. Other extreme devastating shocks like flood, storm and frost, which are sourced from climate variability, have significant and negative effect on crop income of households’. Parameters that notify rainfall inconsistency like late start, variation in availability at growing season, and early cessation are critical problems for crop income of smallholder households as to the model result. Given this, impact of climate variability is not consistent in different agro-ecologies of the country. Rainfall variability has similar impact on crop income in different agro-ecology, but variation in temperature affects cold agro-ecology villages negatively and significantly, while it has positive effect in warm villages. Parameters that represent rainfall inconsistency have similar impact in both agro-ecologies and the aggregate model regression. This implies climate variability sourced from rainfall inconsistency is the main problem of Ethiopian agriculture especially the crop production sub-sector of smallholder households.

Keywords: climate variability, crop income, household, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: M. R. Vaezi, R. Ghasemi, A. Akramizadeh

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Frequency stability of microgrids under islanded operation attracts particular attention recently. A new cooperative frequency control strategy based on centralized multi-agent system (CMAS) is proposed in this study. On this strategy, agents sent data and furthermore each component has its own to center operating decisions (MGCC). After deciding on the information, they are returned. Frequency control strategies include primary and secondary frequency control and disposal of multi-stage load in which this study will also provide a method and algorithm for load shedding. This could also be a big problem for the performance of micro-grid in times of disaster. The simulation results show the promising performance of the proposed structure of the controller based on multi agent systems.

Keywords: frequency control, islanded microgrid, multi-agent system, load shedding

Procedia PDF Downloads 457

Authors: Der Chyan Lin

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Since the early introduction by Ormondroyd and Den Hartog, vibration absorber (VA) has become one of the most commonly used vibration mitigation strategies. The strategy is most effective for a primary plant subjected to a single frequency excitation. For continuous systems, notable advances in vibration absorption in the multi-frequency system were made. However, the efficacy of the VA strategy for systems under multi-frequency excitation is not well understood. For example, for an N degrees-of-freedom (DOF) primary-absorber system, there are N 'peak' frequencies of large amplitude vibration per every new excitation frequency. In general, the usable range for vibration absorption can be greatly reduced as a result. Frequency modulated harmonic excitation is a commonly seen multi-frequency excitation example: f(t) = cos(ϖ(t)t) where ϖ(t)=ω(1+α sin⁡(δt)). It is known that f(t) has a series expansion given by the Bessel function of the first kind, which implies an infinity of forcing frequencies in the frequency modulated harmonic excitation. For an SDOF system of natural frequency ωₙ subjected to f(t), it can be shown that amplitude peaks emerge at ω₍ₚ,ₖ₎=(ωₙ ± 2kδ)/(α ∓ 1),k∈Z; i.e., there is an infinity of resonant frequencies ω₍ₚ,ₖ₎, k∈Z, making the use of VA strategy ineffective. In this work, we propose an absorber frequency placement strategy for SDOF vibration systems subjected to frequency-modulated excitation. An SDOF linear mass-spring system coupled to lateral absorber systems is used to demonstrate the ideas. Although the mechanical components are linear, the governing equations for the coupled system are nonlinear. We show using N identical absorbers, for N ≫ 1, that (a) there is a cluster of N+1 natural frequencies around every natural absorber frequency, and (b) the absorber frequencies can be moved away from the plant's resonance frequency (ω₀) as N increases. Moreover, we also show the bandwidth of the VA performance increases with N. The derivations of the clustering and bandwidth widening effect will be given, and the superiority of the proposed strategy will be demonstrated via numerical experiments.

Keywords: Bessel function, bandwidth, frequency modulated excitation, vibration absorber

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Authors: Abdallah H. Ramini, Alwathiqbellah I. Ibrahim, Mohammad I. Younis

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We investigate experimentally and theoretically the dynamics of a capacitive resonator under mixed frequency excitation of two AC harmonic signals. The resonator is composed of a proof mass suspended by two cantilever beams. Experimental measurements are conducted using a laser Doppler Vibrometer to reveal the interesting dynamics of the system when subjected to two-source excitation. A nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom model is used for the theoretical investigation. The results reveal combination resonances of additive and subtractive type, which are shown to be promising to increase the bandwidth of the resonator near primary resonance frequency. Our results also demonstrate the ability to shift the combination resonances to much lower or much higher frequency ranges. We also demonstrate the dynamic pull-in instability under mixed frequency excitation.

Keywords: electrostatically actuated resonator, multi-frequency excitation, nonlinear dynamics, AC harmonic signals

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Authors: G. Venkata Rao, R. Srinivasa Rao, B. Neelima Sri Priya

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The over extraction of groundwater from the coastal aquifers, result in reduction of groundwater resource and lowering of water level. In general, the depletion of groundwater level enhances the landward migration of saltwater wedge. Now a days the ground water extraction increases by year to year because increased population and industrialization. The ground water is the only source of irrigation, domestic and Industrial purposes at Pydibhimavaram industrial area, which is located in the coastal belt of Srikakulam district, India of Latitudes 18.145N 83.627E and Longitudes 18.099N 83.674E. The present study has been attempted to calculate amount of water getting recharged into this aquifer, status of rainfall pattern for the past two decades and the runoff is calculated by using Khosla’s formula with available rainfall and temperature in the study area. A decision support model has been developed on the basis of Monthly Extractions of the water from the ground through bore wells and the Net Recharge of the aquifer. It is concluded that the amount of extractions is exceeding the amount of recharge from May to October in a given year which will in turn damage the water balance in the subsurface layers.

Keywords: aquifer, decision support model, groundwater extraction, run off estimation and rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

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We address the integer frequency offset (IFO) estimation under the influence of the timing offset (TO) in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems. Incorporating the IFO and TO into the symbol set used to represent the received OFDM symbol, we investigate the influence of the TO on the IFO, and then, propose a combining method between two consecutive OFDM correlations, reducing the influence. The proposed scheme has almost the same complexity as that of the conventional schemes, whereas it does not need the TO knowledge contrary to the conventional schemes. From numerical results it is confirmed that the proposed scheme is insensitive to the TO, consequently, yielding an improvement of the IFO estimation performance over the conventional schemes when the TO exists.

Keywords: estimation, integer frequency offset, OFDM, timing offset

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Authors: Somayeh Komeylian

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Array signal processing techniques have been recently developing in a variety application of the performance enhancement of receivers by refraining the power of jamming and interference signals. In this scenario, biases induced to the antenna array receiver degrade significantly the accurate estimation of the carrier phase. Owing to the integration of frequency becomes the carrier phase, we have obtained the unbiased doppler frequency for the high precision estimation of carrier phase. The unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the power jamming and the other interference signals allows achieving the highly accurate estimation of phase carrier. In this study, we have rigorously investigated the unbiased characteristic of Doppler frequency to the variation of the antenna array geometries. The simulation results have efficiently verified that the Doppler frequency remains also unbiased and accurate to the variation of antenna array geometries.

Keywords: array signal processing, unbiased doppler frequency, GNSS, carrier phase, and slowly fluctuating point target

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Tao Lin, Shanghong Zhao, Yufu Yin, Zihang Zhu, Wei Jiang, Xuan Li, Qiurong Zheng

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A simple operated, stable and compact multi-band frequency conversion and multi-phase shift is proposed to satisfy the demands of multi-band communication and radar phase array system. The dual polarization quadrature phase shift keying (DP-QPSK) modulator is employed to support the LO sideband and the optical frequency comb simultaneously. Meanwhile, the fiber is also used to introduce different phase shifts to different sidebands. The simulation result shows that by controlling the DC bias voltages and a C band microwave signal with frequency of 4.5 GHz can be simultaneously converted into other signals that cover from C band to K band with multiple phases. It also verifies that the multi-band and multi-phase frequency conversion system can be stably performed based on current manufacturing art and can well cope with the DC drifting. It should be noted that the phase shift of the converted signal also partly depends of the length of the optical fiber.

Keywords: microwave photonics, multi-band frequency conversion, multi-phase shift, conversion efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Resham Lal Phuldel

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This study based on a bilateral development cooperation project funded by the governments of Nepal and Finland. The first phase of the project has been completed in August 2012 and the phase II started in September 2013 and will end September 2018. The project strengthens the capacity of local governments in 14 districts to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene in Western development region and in Mid-Western development region of Nepal. In recent days, several spring sources have been dried out or slowly decreasing its yield across the country due to changing character of rainfall, increasing evaporative losses and some other manmade causes such as land use change, infrastructure development work etc. To sustain the hilly communities, the sources have to be able to provide sufficient water to serve the population, either on its own or in conjunction with other sources. Phase III have measured all water sources in Tanahu district in 2004 and sources were located with the GPS. Phase II has repeated the exercise to see changes in the district. 3320 water sources as identified in 2004 and altogether 4223 including new water sources were identified and measured in 2014. Between 2004 and 2014, 50% flow rate (yield) deduction of point sources’ average yield in 10 years is found. Similarly, 21.6% and 34% deductions of average yield were found in spring and stream water sources respectively. The rainfall from 2002 to 2013 shows erratic rainfalls in the district. The monsoon peak month is not consistent and the trend shows the decrease of annual rainfall 16.7 mm/year. Further, the temperature trend between 2002 and 2013 shows warming of + 0.0410C/year.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, source discharge, water sources

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Authors: Ashutosh Saxena, Kumar Pallav, Ramji Dwivedi

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The present study estimates the seismicity parameter 'b' and maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake (Mmax) for Gujarat region with three well-established methods viz. Kijiko parametric model (KP), Kijiko-Sellevol-Bayern (KSB) and Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR), as a combined seismic source regime. The earthquake catalogue is prepared for a period of 1330 to 2013 in the region Latitudes 20o N to 250 N and Longitudinally extending from 680 to 750 E for earthquake moment magnitude (Mw) ≥4.0. The ’a’ and 'b' value estimated for the region as 4.68 and 0.58. Further, Mmax estimated as 8.54 (± 0.29), 8.69 (± 0.48), and 8.12 with KP, KSB, and TGR, respectively.

Keywords: Mmax, seismicity parameter, Gujarat, Tapered Gutenberg-Richter

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Maryam Abata, Moulhime El Bekkali, Said Mazer, Catherine Algani, Mahmoud Mehdi

Abstract:

One major problem of most electronic systems operating in the millimeter wave band is the signal generation with a high purity and a stable carrier frequency. This problem is overcome by using the combination of a signal with a low frequency local oscillator (LO) and several stages of frequency multipliers. The use of these frequency multipliers to create millimeter-wave signals is an attractive alternative to direct generation signal. Therefore, the isolation problem of the local oscillator from the other stages is always present, which leads to have various mechanisms that can disturb the oscillator performance, thus a buffer amplifier is often included in oscillator outputs. In this paper, we present the study and design of a buffer amplifier in the mm-wave band using a 0.15μm pHEMT from UMS foundry. This amplifier will be used as a part of a frequency quadrupler at 60 GHz.

Keywords: Mm-wave band, local oscillator, frequency quadrupler, buffer amplifier

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Authors: Keunhong Chae, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

We address a new integer frequency offset (IFO) estimation scheme with an aid of a pilot for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing systems. After correlating each continual pilot with a predetermined scattered pilot, the correlation value is again correlated to alleviate the influence of the timing offset. From numerical results, it is demonstrated that the influence of the timing offset on the IFO estimation is significantly decreased.

Keywords: estimation, integer frequency offset, OFDM, timing offset

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

Abstract:

In recent years, Thailand has been affected by climate change phenomenon, which is clearly seen from the season change for different times. The occurrence of violent storms, heavy rains, floods, and drought were found in several areas. In a long dry period, the water supply is not adequate in drought areas. Nowadays, it is renowned that there is a significant decrease of rainwater use for household consumption in rural area of Thailand. Rainwater harvesting is the practice of collection and storage of rainwater in storage tanks before it is lost as surface run-off. Rooftop rainwater harvesting is used to provide drinking water, domestic water, and water for livestock. Rainwater harvesting in households is an alternative for people to readily prepare water resources for their own consumptions during the drought season, can help mitigate flooding of flooded plains, and also may reduce demand on the basin and well. It also helps in the availability of potable water, as rainwater is substantially free of salts. Application of rainwater harvesting in rural water system provide a substantial benefit for both water supply and wastewater subsystems by reducing the need for clean water in water distribution systems, less generated storm water in sewer systems, and a reduction in storm water runoff polluting freshwater bodies. The combination of rainwater quality and rainfall quantity is used to determine proper rainwater harvesting for household consumption to be safe and adequate for survivals. Rainwater quality analysis is compared with the drinking water standard. In terms of rainfall quantity, the observed rainfall data are interpolated by GIS 10.5 and showed by map during 1980 to 2020, used to assess the annual yield for household consumptions.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, drinking water standard, annual yield, rainfall quantity

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

Abstract:

The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

Abstract:

Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Aref Aasi, Sadegh Mehdi Aghaei, Balaji Panchapakesan

Abstract:

This work aims to evaluate the free and forced vibration of a beam with two end joints subjected to a concentrated moving mass and a load using the Euler-Bernoulli method. The natural frequency is calculated for different locations of the concentrated mass and load on the beam. The analytical results are verified by the experimental data. The variations of natural frequency as a function of the location of the mass, the effect of the forced frequency on the vibrational amplitude, and the displacement amplitude versus time are investigated. It is discovered that as the concentrated mass moves toward the center of the beam, the natural frequency of the beam and the relative error between experimental and analytical data decreases. There is a close resemblance between analytical data and experimental observations.

Keywords: Euler-Bernoulli beam, natural frequency, forced vibration, experimental setup

Procedia PDF Downloads 263