Search results for: extreme value analysis

Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky

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Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 ^oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m² on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m². In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 ^oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 ^oC to 4.8 ^oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m² causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 ^oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 ^oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.

Keywords: greenhouse radiative force, greenhouse air temperature, greenhouse thermodynamics, greenhouse historical, greenhouse radiative force on ice, greenhouse radiative force on plants, greenhouse radiative force in air

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Luisa Kynast

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It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

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Authors: Mahtab Abdollahi Sarvi, Siamak Epackachi, Ali Imanpour

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Reinforced concrete shear walls are commonly used as the lateral load-resisting system of mid- to high-rise office or residential buildings around the world. Design of such systems is often governed by wind rather than seismic effects, in particular in low-to-moderate seismic regions. The current design philosophy as per the majority of building codes under wind loads require elastic response of lateral load-resisting systems including reinforced concrete shear walls when subjected to the rare design wind load, resulting in significantly large wall sections needed to meet strength requirements and drift limits. The latter can highly influence the design in upper stories due to stringent drift limits specified by building codes, leading to substantial added costs to the construction of the wall. However, such walls may offer limited to moderate over-strength and ductility due to their large reserve capacity provided that they are designed and detailed to appropriately develop such over-strength and ductility under extreme wind loads. This would significantly contribute to reducing construction time and costs, while maintaining structural integrity under gravity and frequently-occurring and less frequent wind events. This paper aims to investigate the over-strength and ductility capacity of several imaginary office buildings located in Edmonton, Canada with a glance at earthquake design philosophy. Selected models are 10- to 25-story buildings with three types of reinforced concrete shear wall configurations including rectangular, barbell, and flanged. The buildings are designed according to National Building Code of Canada. Then fiber-based numerical models of the walls are developed in Perform 3D and by conducting nonlinear static (pushover) analysis, lateral nonlinear behavior of the walls are evaluated. Ductility and over-strength of the structures are obtained based on the results of the pushover analyses. The results confirmed moderate nonlinear capacity of reinforced concrete shear walls under extreme wind loads. This is while lateral displacements of the walls pass the serviceability limit states defined in Pre standard for Performance-Based Wind Design (ASCE). The results indicate that we can benefit the limited nonlinear response observed in the reinforced concrete shear walls to economize the design of such systems under wind loads.

Keywords: concrete shear wall, high-rise buildings, nonlinear static analysis, response modification factor, wind load

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Authors: Angga S. Fajar, Y. Takahashi, J. Kiyono, S. Sawada

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The problem of medium span bridge bearing support in the extreme temperatures fluctuation region is deterioration in case the suppression of superstructure that sustains temperature expansion. The other hand, the behavior and the parameter of RC column accompanied with friction damping mechanism were determined successfully based on the experiment and numerical analysis. This study proposes the structural system of RC pier accompanied with multi sliding friction damping mechanism to substitute the conventional system of pier together with bearing support. In this system, the pier has monolith behavior to the superstructure with flexible small deformation to accommodate thermal expansion of the superstructure. The flexible small deformation behavior is realized by adding the gap mechanism in the multi sliding friction devices form. The important performances of this system are sufficient lateral flexibility in small deformation, sufficient elastic deformation capacity, sufficient lateral force resistance, and sufficient energy dissipation. Numerical analysis performed for this system with fiber element model. It shows that the structural system has good performance not only under small deformation due to thermal expansion of the superstructure but also under seismic load.

Keywords: RC Pier, thermal expansion, multi sliding friction device, flexible small deformation

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Authors: Mohamed Djalil Zaafour, Samir Chekchaki, Mohamed Benslama

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The Landfill of El Matrouha is located in El-Tarf town (extreme north east of Algeria), the Landfill is present as a gigantic wild dump. This waste dump occupies an area of over four hectares, tons of rubbish that is sent daily are scattered over kilometers, reaching farmland located west of the town, the landfill is close to a temporary Oued, which supply Oued Guergour the last tributary Oued El Kebir. The landfills are causing serious environmental damage, following the infiltration of leachates, which contribute to the degradation of water quality, in the context of this problem, the purpose of the work is focused on assessing the impact of this landfill on Oued El-Kebir, for this a series of sampling and analysis of the soil and water of this Oued was performed; The results show that the soil collected reveal the sandy texture facilitating infiltration and percolation of leachate from the landfill; the physicochemical analysis of the quality of the river water reveals high levels of sulfates in fact this element is one of the essential constituents of the mineral fraction of the waste presenting a risk of pollution by this element, The recorded values for nutrients are sub-standard, for trace elements analysis shows very low metal load on the river except for lead, which is present at high concentrations exceeding all standard.

Keywords: Algeria, landfill, leachates, Oued El-kebir

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

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Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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Authors: Milad Abolfazli, Milad Bazli

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In this critical review, the topic of how composites maintain their tensile strength when exposed to elevated temperatures will be studied. A comprehensive database of 761 tests have been analyzed and closely examined to study the various factors that affect the strength retention. Conclusions are drawn from the collective research efforts of numerous scholars who have investigated this subject. Through the analysis of these tests, the relationships between the tensile strength retention and various effective factors are investigated. This review is meant to be a practical resource for researchers and engineers. It provides valuable information that can guide the development of composites tailored for high-temperature applications. By offering a deeper understanding of how composites behave in extreme heat, the paper contributes to the advancement of materials science and engineering.

Keywords: tesnile tests, high temperatures, FRP composites, mechanical perfomance

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Authors: Mohibullah Zegham

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In conducting a case study to analyze the impact of literature on extremism and fundamentalism in Afghanistan, the author of this paper uses qualitative research method. For this purpose the author of the paper has a glance at the history of extremism and fundamentalism in Afghanistan, as well the major causes and predisposing factors of it; then analyzes the impact of literature on extremism and fundamentalism using qualitative method. This study relies on the moral engagement theory to reveal how some extreme-Islamists quit the ideological interpretation of Islam and return to normal life by reading certain literary works. The goal of this case study is to help fighting extremism and fundamentalism by using literature. The research showed that literary works are useful in this regard and there are several evidences of its effectiveness.

Keywords: extremism, fundamentalism, communist, jihad, madrasa, literature

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Authors: Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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A multiple criteria optimization approach for the solution of the Fuzzy Vehicle Routing Problem (FVRP) is proposed. For the possibility environment the levels of movements between customers are calculated by the constructed simulation interactive algorithm. The first criterion of the bi-criteria optimization problem - minimization of the expectation of total fuzzy travel time on closed routes is constructed for the FVRP. A new, second criterion – maximization of feasibility of movement on the closed routes is constructed by the Choquet finite averaging operator. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so called “promising” routes which were selected from the all admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in the real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem the -constraint approach is used. An exact algorithm is implemented based on D. Knuth’s Dancing Links technique and the algorithm DLX. The Main objective was to present the new approach for FVRP, when there are some difficulties while moving on the roads. This approach is called FVRP for extreme conditions (FVRP-EC) on the roads. Also, the aim of this paper was to construct the solving model of the constructed FVRP. Results are illustrated on the numerical example where all Pareto-optimal solutions are found. Also, an approach for more complex model FVRP with time windows was developed. A numerical example is presented in which optimal routes are constructed for extreme conditions on the roads.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization, Fuzzy Vehicle routing problem, multiple objective programming, possibility theory

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: Ji-Wook Mauk, Yu-Suk Kim, Hyung-Joon Kim

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This study carried out comparative seismic performance of reinforced concrete frames infilled by masonry walls with different heights. Partial and fully infilled RC frames were modeled for the research objectives and the analysis model for a bare reinforced concrete frame was established for comparison. Non-linear static analyses for the studied frames were performed to investigate their structural behavior under extreme loading conditions and to find out their collapse mechanism. It was observed from analysis results that the strengths of the partial infilled RC frames are increased and their ductility is reduced, as infilled masonry walls are higher. Especially, Reinforced concrete frames with a higher partial infilled masonry wall would experience shear failures. Non-linear dynamic analyses using 10 earthquake records show that the bare and fully infilled reinforced concrete frames present stable collapse mechanism while the reinforced concrete frames with a partially infilled masonry wall collapse in more brittle manner due to short-column effects.

Keywords: fully infilled RC frame, partially infilled RC frame, masonry wall, short-column effect

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Authors: Mahdi Farajzadeh Ajirlou

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The detailed serious adverse effects raised the stresses around the safety of individuals who have gotten COVID-19 vaccines. Numerous verification referrers that disease with COV-19 causes neurological dysfunction in a significant proportion of influenced patients, where these side effects show up seriously amid the disease, and still less is known approximately the potential long-term results for the brain, where the loss of olfaction could be a neurological sign and simple indications of COVID-19. Since publishing effective clinical trial results of mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and injecting it to the volunteers in 2020, numerous reports have emerged approximately about cardiovascular complications followed by the mRNA vaccination. Vaccination-associated adenopathy could be a constant imaging finding after the organization of COVID-19 antibodies that will lead to a symptomatic problem in patients with shown or suspected cancer, in whom it may be vague from dangerous nodal inclusion. In spite of all the benefits and viability of the coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) antibodies specified in later clinical trials, a few other post-vaccination side impacts, such as lymphadenopathy (LAP), were observed. Also, numerous variables, including financial conditions, have played a critical part in expanding the number of people with COVID-19 infection and also much more side effects in that country. Amid the Coronavirus widespread, Iran has been experiencing extreme sanctions, which has faced this nation with an extreme financial crisis. Additionally, with COVID-19 widespread, there was a developing concern around the abuse of imaging exams extraordinarily within the pediatric populace, which highlights the issues pointed out by this review.

Keywords: radiology, vaccines, COVID-19, side effect

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Authors: Ma Chaoyang

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This article starts from the perspective of environmental justice theory and analyzes the accessibility and regional equity of park green spaces in the central urban area of Chengdu in 2022 based on the improved Gaussian 2SFCA analysis method and Gini coefficient method. Then, according to the relevant analysis model, it further explores the correlation between the spatial distribution of park green spaces and the socio-economic conditions of residents in order to provide a reference for the construction and research of Chengdu's park city under the guidance of fairness and justice. The results show that: (1) Overall, the spatial distribution of parks and green spaces in Chengdu shows a significantly uneven distribution of extreme core edge, with a certain degree of unfairness; that is, there is an environmental injustice pattern. (2) The spatial layout of urban parks and green spaces is subject to strong guiding interference from the socio-economic level; that is, there is a high correlation between housing prices and the tendency of parks. (3) Green space resources Gini coefficient analysis shows that residents of the three modes of transportation in the study area have unequal opportunities to enjoy park and green space services, and the degree of unfairness in walking is much greater than that in cycling and cycling.

Keywords: parks and green spaces, environmental justice, two step mobile search method, Gini coefficient, spatial distribution

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Authors: V. Fuis, P. Janicek, T. Navrat

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The global solved problem is the calculation of the parameters of ceramic material from a set of destruction tests of ceramic heads of total hip joint endoprosthesis. The standard way of calculation of the material parameters consists in carrying out a set of 3 or 4 point bending tests of specimens cut out from parts of the ceramic material to be analysed. In case of ceramic heads, it is not possible to cut out specimens of required dimensions because the heads are too small (if the cut out specimens were smaller than the normalized ones, the material parameters derived from them would exhibit higher strength values than those which the given ceramic material really has). A special destruction device for heads destruction was designed and the solved local problem is the modification of this destructive device based on the analysis of tensile stress in the head for two different values of the depth of the conical hole in the head. The goal of device modification is a shift of the location with extreme value of 1 max from the region of head’s hole bottom to its opening. This modification will increase the credibility of the obtained material properties of bio ceramics, which will be determined from a set of head destructions using the Weibull weakest link theory.

Keywords: ceramic heads, depth of the conical hole, destruction test, material parameters, principal stress, total hip joint endoprosthesis

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Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Alexander Rodríguez-Hernández, Arnulfo Rojas-Perez, Liz Diaz-Vazquez

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The rise in consumerism over the past century has resulted in the creation of higher amounts of plasticizers, personal care products and other chemical substances, which enter and accumulate in water systems. Other sources of pollutants in Neotropical regions experience large inputs of nutrients with these pollutants resulting in eutrophication of water which consume large quantities of oxygen, resulting in high fish mortality. This dilemma has created a need for the development of targeted detection in complex matrices and remediation of emerging contaminants. We have synthesized carbon nanoparticles from macro algae (Ulva fasciata) by oxidizing the graphitic carbon network under extreme acidic conditions. The resulting material was characterized by STEM, yielding a spherical 12 nm average diameter nanoparticles, which can be fixed into a polysaccharide aerogel synthesized from the same macro algae. Spectrophotometer analyses show a pH dependent fluorescent behavior varying from 450-620 nm in aqueous media. Heavily oxidized edges provide for easy functionalization with enzymes for a more targeted analysis and remediation technique. Given the optical properties of the carbon base nanoparticles and the numerous possibilities of functionalization, we have developed a selective and robust targeted bio-detection and bioremediation technique for the treatment of emerging contaminants in complex matrices like estuarine embayment.

Keywords: aerogels, carbon nanoparticles, fluorescent, targeted analysis

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Authors: Fatemeh Deldarabdolmaleki, Mohamad Fakri Zaky Bin Ja'afar

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This paper presents fenestration analysis to study the balance between utilizing daylight and eliminating the disturbing parameters in a private office room with interior venetian blinds taking into account different slat angles. Mean luminance of the scene and window, luminance ratio of the workplane and window, work plane illumination and daylight glare probability(DGP) were calculated as a function of venetian blind design properties. Recently developed software, analyzing High Dynamic Range Images (HDRI captured by CCD camera), such as radiance based evalglare and hdrscope help to investigate luminance-based metrics. A total of Eight-day measurement experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of different venetian blind angles in an office environment under daylight condition in Serdang, Malaysia. Detailed result for the selected case study showed that artificial lighting is necessary during the morning session for Malaysian buildings with southwest windows regardless of the venetian blind’s slat angle. However, in some conditions of afternoon session the workplane illuminance level exceeds the maximum illuminance of 2000 lx such as 10° and 40° slat angles. Generally, a rising trend is discovered toward mean window luminance level during the day. All the conditions have less than 10% of the pixels exceeding 2000 cd/m² before 1:00 P.M. However, 40% of the selected hours have more than 10% of the scene pixels higher than 2000 cd/m² after 1:00 P.M. Surprisingly in no blind condition, there is no extreme case of window/task ratio, However, the extreme cases happen for 20°, 30°, 40° and 50° slat angles. As expected mean window luminance level is higher than 2000 cd/m² after 2:00 P.M for most cases except 60° slat angle condition. Studying the daylight glare probability, there is not any DGP value higher than 0.35 in this experiment, due to the window’s direction, location of the building and studied workplane. Specifically, this paper reviews different blind angle’s response to the suggested metrics by the previous standards, and finally conclusions and knowledge gaps are summarized and suggested next steps for research are provided. Addressing these gaps is critical for the continued progress of the energy efficiency movement.

Keywords: daylighting, office environment, energy simulation, venetian blind

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Pavan K. Emani, Shashank Kothari, V. S. Phanikanth

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The ultimate load analysis of RC pile groups has assumed a lot of significance under liquefying soil conditions, especially due to post-earthquake studies of 1964 Niigata, 1995 Kobe and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The present study reports the results of numerical simulations on pile groups subjected to monotonically increasing lateral loads under design amounts of pile axial loading. The soil liquefaction has been considered through the non-linear p-y relationship of the soil springs, which can vary along the depth/length of the pile. This variation again is related to the liquefaction potential of the site and the magnitude of the seismic shaking. As the piles in the group can reach their extreme deflections and rotations during increased amounts of lateral loading, a precise modeling of the inelastic behavior of the pile cross-section is done, considering the complete stress-strain behavior of concrete, with and without confinement, and reinforcing steel, including the strain-hardening portion. The possibility of the inelastic buckling of the individual piles is considered in the overall collapse modes. The model is analysed using Riks analysis in finite element software to check the post buckling behavior and plastic collapse of piles. The results confirm the kinds of failure modes predicted by centrifuge test results reported by researchers on pile group, although the pile material used is significantly different from that of the simulation model. The extension of the present work promises an important contribution to the design codes for pile groups in liquefying soils.

Keywords: collapse load analysis, inelastic buckling, liquefaction, pile group

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: M. Budakoglu, M. Karaman, D. Kiran, Z. Doner, B. Zeytuncu, B. Tanç, M. Kumral

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Lake Acıgöl is one of the large saline lacustrine environment in Turkey. Eleven trace metals (Cr, Mn, Fe, Al, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As) in 9 surface and subsurface sediment samples from the Lake Acıgöl were analyzed with the bulk and sequential extraction analysis methods by ICP-MS to obtain the metal distribution patterns in this extreme environment. Five stepped sequential extraction technique (1- exchangeable, 2- bond to carbonates, 3- bond to iron and manganese oxides/hydroxides, 4- bond to organic matter and sulphides, and 5- residual fraction incorporated into clay and silicate mineral lattices) was used to characterize the various forms of metals in the <63μ size sediments. The metal contents (ppm) and their percentages for each extraction step were reported and compared with the results obtained from the total digestion. Results indicate that sum of the four fraction are in good agreement with the total digestion results of Ni, Cd, As, Zn, Cu and Fe with the satisfactory recoveries (94.04–109.0%) and the method used is reliable and repeatable for these elements. It was found that there were high correlations between Fe vs. Ni loads in the fraction of F2 and F4 with R2= 0,91 and 0,81, respectively. Comparison of totally 135 chemical analysis results in three sampling location and for 5 fraction between Fe-Co, Co-Ni and Fe-Ni element couples were presented elevated correlations with R2=0,98, 0,92 and 0,91, respectively.

Keywords: Lake Acigol, sequancial extraction, recent lake sediment, geochemical speciation of heavy metals

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Authors: Padma Sree Potru

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Abstract: A co-relational descriptive study was conducted to assess the impact of cancer event on self, on family, coping strategies of cancer clients and quality of life among them in G.G.H., Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India. Aim: The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of cancer events on self, on family, coping of clients and quality of life among cancer patients. Methods: 50 cancer patients were selected through random sampling technique. The data were obtained by using impact of events scale, impact on family scale, coping health inventory and WHOQOL-BREF scale. Results: The results revealed that majority (32%) of them were in the age group of 36-45 years, 72% were females, 44% were having the income of Rs. 5001-10000/- per month, 40% were working for daily wage, and 15% were newly diagnosed of cancer. Among 50 cancer patients, 65% had extreme impact of events, 61% shows extreme impact on family, 46% possess minimal coping strategies and 68% had poor quality of life. This study focuses on that there is a strong positive correlation between quality of life and coping behavior r=0.603 and also between impact of event and impact on family r=0.610, but a negative correlation existed between quality of life and impact of events r= -0.201. ANOVA test reveals that there is a significant difference between subscales of impact on family and coping behavior with f values = 3.893, 3.957 respectively. Chi-square highlights that there is a significant association between impact of events with age, occupation and impact on family with duration of illness. Conclusion: Even though cancer is a dreadful disease still there are many emerging treatment modalities and innovative procedures which are focusing on improving the standards of life among cancer clients. But all this can happen only when the clients accepts the reality, increase their willpower and confidence, desire to live, focusing on coping mechanisms and good ongoing support from the family members.

Keywords: impact of event, impact on family, coping, quality of event

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Authors: Mitra Bahri, Jean Leopold Kabambi, Jacqueline Yakobi-Hancock, William Render, Stephanie So

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Reducing formaldehyde concentration in residential buildings is an important challenge, especially during the summer. In this study, a ceiling tile was used as a sorptive passive panel for formaldehyde removal. The performance of this passive panel was evaluated under different environmental conditions. The results demonstrated that the removal efficiency is comprised between 40% and 71%. Change in the level of relative humidity (30%, 50%, and 75%) had a slight positive effect on the sorption capacity. However, increase in temperature from 21 °C to 26 °C led to approximately 7% decrease in the average formaldehyde removal performance. GC/MS and HPLC analysis revealed the formation of different by-products at low concentrations under extreme environmental conditions. These findings suggest that the passive panel selected for this study holds the potential to be used for formaldehyde removal under various conditions.

Keywords: formaldehyde, indoor air quality, passive panel, removal efficiency, sorption

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Authors: Cynthia G. Esquerre, Amparo Iris Zavaleta

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Extremophiles constitute a potentially valuable source of proteases for the development of biotechnological processes; however, the number of available studies in the literature is limited compared to mesophilic counterparts. Therefore, in this study, Peruvian halophilic microorganisms were characterized to select suitable proteolytic strains that produce active proteases under exigent conditions. Proteolysis was screened using the streak plate method with gelatin or skim milk as substrates. After that, proteolytic microorganisms were selected for phenotypic characterization and screened by a semi-quantitative proteolytic test using a modified method of diffusion agar. Finally, proteolysis was evaluated using partially purified extracts by ice-cold ethanol precipitation and dialysis. All analyses were carried out over a wide range of NaCl concentrations, pH, temperature and substrates. Of a total of 60 strains, 21 proteolytic strains were selected, of these 19 were extreme halophiles and 2 were moderates. Most proteolytic strains demonstrated differences in their biochemical patterns, particularly in sugar fermentation. A total of 14 microorganisms produced extracellular proteases, 13 were neutral, and one was alkaline showing activity up to pH 9.0. Proteases hydrolyzed gelatin as the most specific substrate. In general, catalytic activity was efficient under a wide range of NaCl (1 to 4 M NaCl), temperature (37 to 55 °C) and after an ethanol exposition performed at -20 °C for 24 hours. In conclusion, this study reported 14 candidates extremely halophiles producing extracellular proteases capable of being stable and active on a wide range of NaCl, temperature and even long lasting ethanol exposition.

Keywords: biotechnological processes, ethanol exposition, extracellular proteases, extremophiles

Procedia PDF Downloads 285