Search results for: estimator

Authors: Yan Torres, Fernanda Simoes, Francisco Petrucci-Fonseca, Freddie-Jeanne Richard

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The non-invasive samples are an alternative of collecting genetic samples directly. Non-invasive samples are collected without the manipulation of the animal (e.g., scats, feathers and hairs). Nevertheless, the use of non-invasive samples has some limitations. The main issue is degraded DNA, leading to poorer extraction efficiency and genotyping. Those errors delayed for some years a widespread use of non-invasive genetic information. Possibilities to limit genotyping errors can be done using analysis methods that can assimilate the errors and singularities of non-invasive samples. Genotype matching and population estimation algorithms can be highlighted as important analysis tools that have been adapted to deal with those errors. Although, this recent development of analysis methods there is still a lack of empirical performance comparison of them. A comparison of methods with dataset different in size and structure can be useful for future studies since non-invasive samples are a powerful tool for getting information specially for endangered and rare populations. To compare the analysis methods, four different datasets used were obtained from the Dryad digital repository were used. Three different matching algorithms (Cervus, Colony and Error Tolerant Likelihood Matching - ETLM) are used for matching genotypes and two different ones for population estimation (Capwire and BayesN). The three matching algorithms showed different patterns of results. The ETLM produced less number of unique individuals and recaptures. A similarity in the matched genotypes between Colony and Cervus was observed. That is not a surprise since the similarity between those methods on the likelihood pairwise and clustering algorithms. The matching of ETLM showed almost no similarity with the genotypes that were matched with the other methods. The different cluster algorithm system and error model of ETLM seems to lead to a more criterious selection, although the processing time and interface friendly of ETLM were the worst between the compared methods. The population estimators performed differently regarding the datasets. There was a consensus between the different estimators only for the one dataset. The BayesN showed higher and lower estimations when compared with Capwire. The BayesN does not consider the total number of recaptures like Capwire only the recapture events. So, this makes the estimator sensitive to data heterogeneity. Heterogeneity in the sense means different capture rates between individuals. In those examples, the tolerance for homogeneity seems to be crucial for BayesN work properly. Both methods are user-friendly and have reasonable processing time. An amplified analysis with simulated genotype data can clarify the sensibility of the algorithms. The present comparison of the matching methods indicates that Colony seems to be more appropriated for general use considering a time/interface/robustness balance. The heterogeneity of the recaptures affected strongly the BayesN estimations, leading to over and underestimations population numbers. Capwire is then advisable to general use since it performs better in a wide range of situations.

Keywords: algorithms, genetics, matching, population

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Authors: Daniel Dahis, Haim Azhari

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Noninvasive image-guided intracranial treatments using high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) are on the course of translation into clinical applications. They include, among others, tumor ablation, hyperthermia, and blood-brain-barrier (BBB) penetration. Since many of these procedures are associated with local temperature elevation, thermal monitoring is essential. MRI constitutes an imaging method with high spatial resolution and thermal mapping capacity. It is the currently leading modality for temperature guidance, commonly under the name MRgHIFU (magnetic-resonance guided HIFU). Nevertheless, MRI is a very expensive non-portable modality which jeopardizes its accessibility. Ultrasonic thermal monitoring, on the other hand, could provide a modular, cost-effective alternative with higher temporal resolution and accessibility. In order to assess the feasibility of ultrasonic brain thermal monitoring, this study investigated the usage of brain tissue attenuation coefficient (AC) temporal changes as potential estimators of thermal changes. Newton's law of cooling describes a temporal exponential decay behavior for the temperature of a heated object immersed in a relatively cold surrounding. Similarly, in the case of cerebral HIFU treatments, the temperature in the region of interest, i.e., focal zone, is suggested to follow the same law. Thus, it was hypothesized that the AC of the irradiated tissue may follow a temporal exponential behavior during cool down regime. Three ex-vivo bovine brain tissue specimens were inserted into plastic containers along with four thermocouple probes in each sample. The containers were placed inside a specially built ultrasonic tomograph and scanned at room temperature. The corresponding pixel-averaged AC was acquired for each specimen and used as a reference. Subsequently, the containers were placed in a beaker containing hot water and gradually heated to about 45ᵒC. They were then repeatedly rescanned during cool down using ultrasonic through-transmission raster trajectory until reaching about 30ᵒC. From the obtained images, the normalized AC and its temporal derivative as a function of temperature and time were registered. The results have demonstrated high correlation (R² > 0.92) between both the brain AC and its temporal derivative to temperature. This indicates the validity of the hypothesis and the possibility of obtaining brain tissue temperature estimation from the temporal AC thermal changes. It is important to note that each brain yielded different AC values and slopes. This implies that a calibration step is required for each specimen. Thus, for a practical acoustic monitoring of the brain, two steps are suggested. The first step consists of simply measuring the AC at normal body temperature. The second step entails measuring the AC after small temperature elevation. In face of the urging need for a more accessible thermal monitoring technique for brain treatments, the proposed methodology enables a cost-effective high temporal resolution acoustical temperature estimation during HIFU treatments.

Keywords: attenuation coefficient, brain, HIFU, image-guidance, temperature

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Authors: Stephanie Wall, Guido Wimmers

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The construction and operation of buildings greatly contribute to environmental degradation through resource and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The design of the envelope system affects the environmental impact of a building in two major ways; 1) high thermal performance and air tightness can significantly reduce the operational energy of the building and 2) the material selection for the envelope largely impacts the embodied energy of the building. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a scientific methodology that is used to systematically analyze the environmental load of processes or products, such as buildings, over their life. The paper will discuss the results of a comparative LCA of different envelope designs and the long-term monitoring of the Wood Innovation Research Lab (WIRL); a Passive House (PH), industrial building under construction in Prince George, Canada. The WIRL has a footprint of 30m x 30m on a concrete raft slab foundation and consists of shop space as well as a portion of the building that includes a two-story office/classroom space. The lab building goes beyond what was previously thought possible in regards to energy efficiency of industrial buildings in cold climates due to their large volume to surface ratio, small floor area, and high air change rate, and will be the first PH certified industrial building in Canada. These challenges were mitigated through the envelope design which utilizes solar gains while minimizing overheating, reduces thermal bridges with thick (570mm) prefabricated truss walls filled with blown in mineral wool insulation and a concrete slab and roof insulated with EPS rigid insulation. The envelope design results in lower operational and embodied energy when compared to buildings built to local codes or with steel. The LCA conducted using Athena Impact Estimator for Buildings identifies project specific hot spots as well illustrates that for high-efficiency buildings where the operational energy is relatively low; the embodied energy of the material selection becomes a significant design decision as it greatly impacts the overall environmental footprint of the building. The results of the LCA will be reinforced by long-term monitoring of the buildings envelope performance through the installation of temperature and humidity sensors throughout the floor slab, wall and roof panels and through detailed metering of the energy consumption. The data collected from the sensors will also be used to reinforce the results of hygrothermal analysis using WUFI®, a program used to verify the durability of the wall and roof panels. The WIRL provides an opportunity to showcase the use of wood in a high performance envelope of an industrial building and to emphasize the importance of considering the embodied energy of a material in the early stages of design. The results of the LCA will be of interest to leading researchers and scientists committed to finding sustainable solutions for new construction and high-performance buildings.

Keywords: high performance envelope, life cycle assessment, long term monitoring, passive house, prefabricated panels

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Authors: Keiwoma Mark Yila, Mathew Lamrana Siaffa Gboku, Mohamed Sahr Lebbie, Lamin Ibrahim Kamara

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Rainfall and temperature are the important variables which are often used to trace climate variability and change. A perception study and analysis of climatic data were conducted to assess the changes in rainfall and temperature and their impact on crop production in Moyamba district, Sierra Leone. For the perception study, 400 farmers were randomly selected from farmer-based organizations (FBOs) in 4 chiefdoms, and 30 agricultural extension workers (AWEs) in the Moyamba district were purposely selected as respondents. Descriptive statistics and Kendall’s test of concordance was used to analyze the data collected from the farmers and AEWs. Data for the analysis of variability and trends of rainfall and temperature from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Agency and Njala University and grouped into monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Regression analysis was used to determine the statistical values and trend lines for the seasonal and annual time series data. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope Estimator were used to analyze the trends' significance and magnitude, respectively. The results of both studies show evidence of climate change in the Moyamba district. A substantial number of farmers and AEWs perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall amount, length of the rainy season, a late start and end of the rainy season, an increase in the temperature during the day and night, and a shortened harmattan period over the last 30 years. Analysis of the meteorological data shows evidence of variability in the seasonal and annual distribution of rainfall and temperature, a decreasing and non-significant trend in the rainy season and annual rainfall, and an increasing and significant trend in seasonal and annual temperature from 1991 to 2020. However, the observed changes in rainfall and temperature by the farmers and AEWs partially agree with the results of the analyzed meteorological data. The majority of the farmers perceived that; adverse weather conditions have negatively affected crop production in the district. Droughts, high temperatures, and irregular rainfall are the three major adverse weather events that farmers perceived to have contributed to a substantial loss in the yields of the major crops cultivated in the district. In response to the negative effects of adverse weather events, a substantial number of farmers take no action due to their lack of knowledge and technical or financial capacity to implement climate-sensitive agricultural (CSA) practices. Even though few farmers are practising some CSA practices in their farms, there is an urgent need to build the capacity of farmers and AEWs to adapt to and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The most priority support needed by farmers is the provision of climate-resilient crop varieties, whilst the AEWs need training on CSA practices.

Keywords: climate change, crop productivity, farmer’s perception, rainfall, temperature, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Chao-Yang Huang, Rwey-Hua Cherng, Chung-Lin Fu, Yuan-Lung Lo

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Solar energy is one of the replaceable choices to reduce the CO2 emission produced by conventional power plants in the modern society. As an island which is frequently visited by strong typhoons and earthquakes, it is an urgent issue for Taiwan to make an effort in revising the local regulations to strengthen the safety design of photovoltaic systems. Currently, the Taiwanese code for wind resistant design of structures does not have a clear explanation on photovoltaic systems, especially when the systems are arranged in arrayed format. Furthermore, when the arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the rooftop, the approaching flow is significantly altered by the building and led to different pressure pattern in the different area of the photovoltaic system. In this study, L-shape arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the ground of the wind tunnel and then mounted on the building rooftop. The system is consisted of 60 PV models. Each panel model is equivalent to a full size of 3.0 m in depth and 10.0 m in length. Six pressure taps are installed on the upper surface of the panel model and the other six are on the bottom surface to measure the net pressures. Wind attack angle is varied from 0° to 360° in a 10° interval for the worst concern due to wind direction. The sampling rate of the pressure scanning system is set as high enough to precisely estimate the peak pressure and at least 20 samples are recorded for good ensemble average stability. Each sample is equivalent to 10-minute time length in full scale. All the scale factors, including timescale, length scale, and velocity scale, are properly verified by similarity rules in low wind speed wind tunnel environment. The purpose of L-shape arrayed system is for the understanding the pressure characteristics at the corner area. Extreme value analysis is applied to obtain the design pressure coefficient for each net pressure. The commonly utilized Cook-and-Mayne coefficient, 78%, is set to the target non-exceedance probability for design pressure coefficients under Gumbel distribution. Best linear unbiased estimator method is utilized for the Gumbel parameter identification. Careful time moving averaging method is also concerned in data processing. Results show that when the arrayed photovoltaic system is mounted on the ground, the first row of the panels reveals stronger positive pressure than that mounted on the rooftop. Due to the flow separation occurring at the building edge, the first row of the panels on the rooftop is most in negative pressures; the last row, on the other hand, shows positive pressures because of the flow reattachment. Different areas also have different pressure patterns, which corresponds well to the regulations in ASCE7-16 describing the area division for design values. Several minor observations are found according to parametric studies, such as rooftop edge effect, parapet effect, building aspect effect, row interval effect, and so on. General comments are then made for the proposal of regulation revision in Taiwanese code.

Keywords: aerodynamic force coefficient, ground-mounted, roof-mounted, wind tunnel test, photovoltaic

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Authors: Elisa Menardo, Margherita Pasini, Margherita Brondino

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A growing body of empirical research from different areas of inquiry suggests that brief contact with natural environment restore mental resources. The Attention Restoration Theory (ART) is the widespread used and empirical founded theory developed to explain why exposure to nature helps people to recovery cognitive resources. It assumes that contact with nature allows people to free (and then recovery) voluntary attention resources and thus allows them to recover from a cognitive fatigue situation. However, it was suggested that some people could have more cognitive benefit after exposure to urban environment. The objective of this study is to report the results of a meta-analysis on studies (peer-reviewed articles) comparing the restorativeness (the quality to be restorative) perceived in natural environments than those perceived in urban environments. This meta-analysis intended to estimate how much nature environments (forests, parks, boulevards) are perceived to be more restorativeness than urban ones (i.e., the magnitude of the perceived restorativeness’ difference). Moreover, given the methodological difference between study, it studied the potential role of moderator variables as participants (student or other), instrument used (Perceived Restorativeness Scale or other), and procedure (in laboratory or in situ). PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Scopus, SpringerLINK, Web of Science online database were used to identify all peer-review articles on restorativeness published to date (k = 167). Reference sections of obtained papers were examined for additional studies. Only 22 independent studies (with a total of 1371 participants) met inclusion criteria (direct exposure to environment, comparison between one outdoor environment with natural element and one without natural element, and restorativeness measured by self-report scale) and were included in meta-analysis. To estimate the average effect size, a random effect model (Restricted Maximum-likelihood estimator) was used because the studies included in the meta-analysis were conducted independently and using different methods in different populations, so no common effect-size was expected. The presence of publication bias was checked using trim and fill approach. Univariate moderator analysis (mixed effect model) were run to determine whether the variable coded moderated the perceived restorativeness difference. Results show that natural environments are perceived to be more restorativeness than urban environments, confirming from an empirical point of view what is now considered a knowledge gained in environmental psychology. The relevant information emerging from this study is the magnitude of the estimated average effect size, which is particularly high (d = 1.99) compared to those that are commonly observed in psychology. Significant heterogeneity between study was found (Q(19) = 503.16, p < 0.001;) and studies’ variability was very high (I2[C.I.] = 96.97% [94.61 - 98.62]). Subsequent univariate moderator analyses were not significant. Methodological difference (participants, instrument, and procedure) did not explain variability between study. Other methodological difference (e.g., research design, environment’s characteristics, light’s condition) could explain this variability between study. In the mine while, studies’ variability could be not due to methodological difference but to individual difference (age, gender, education level) and characteristics (connection to nature, environmental attitude). Furthers moderator analysis are working in progress.

Keywords: meta-analysis, natural environments, perceived restorativeness, urban environments

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Authors: Stephen Tullis, M. David DiDonato, Hong Sung Park

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Rowing boats (shells) are often steered by a small rudder operated by one of the backward-facing rowers; the attention required of that athlete then slightly decreases the power that that athlete can provide. Reducing the steering distraction would then increase the overall boat speed. Races are straight 2000 m courses with each boat in a 13.5 m wide lane marked by small (~15 cm) widely-spaced (~10 m) buoys, and the boat trajectory is affected by both cross-currents and winds. An optical buoy recognition and tracking system has been developed that provides the boat’s location and orientation with respect to the lane edges. This information is provided to the steering athlete as either: a simple overlay on a video display, or fed to a simplified autopilot system giving steering directions to the athlete or directly controlling the rudder. The system is then effectively a “lane-assist” device but with small, widely-spaced lane markers viewed from a very shallow angle due to constraints on camera height. The image is captured with a lightweight 1080p webcam, and most of the image analysis is done in OpenCV. The colour RGB-image is converted to a grayscale using the difference of the red and blue channels, which provides good contrast between the red/yellow buoys and the water, sky, land background and white reflections and noise. Buoy detection is done with thresholding within a tight mask applied to the image. Robust linear regression using Tukey’s biweight estimator of the previously detected buoy locations is used to develop the mask; this avoids the false detection of noise such as waves (reflections) and, in particular, buoys in other lanes. The robust regression also provides the current lane edges in the camera frame that are used to calculate the displacement of the boat from the lane centre (lane location), and its yaw angle. The interception of the detected lane edges provides a lane vanishing point, and yaw angle can be calculated simply based on the displacement of this vanishing point from the camera axis and the image plane distance. Lane location is simply based on the lateral displacement of the vanishing point from any horizontal cut through the lane edges. The boat lane position and yaw are currently fed what is essentially a stripped down marine auto-pilot system. Currently, only the lane location is used in a PID controller of a rudder actuator with integrator anti-windup to deal with saturation of the rudder angle. Low Kp and Kd values decrease unnecessarily fast return to lane centrelines and response to noise, and limiters can be used to avoid lane departure and disqualification. Yaw is not used as a control input, as cross-winds and currents can cause a straight course with considerable yaw or crab angle. Mapping of the controller with rudder angle “overall effectiveness” has not been finalized - very large rudder angles stall and have decreased turning moments, but at less extreme angles the increased rudder drag slows the boat and upsets boat balance. The full system has many features similar to automotive lane-assist systems, but with the added constraints of the lane markers, camera positioning, control response and noise increasing the challenge.

Keywords: auto-pilot, lane-assist, marine, optical, rowing

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Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

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Authors: Yimer Mohammed Assen, Abiyot Legesse Kura, Engida Esyas Dube, Asebe Regassa Debelo, Girma Kelboro Mensuro, Lete Bekele Gure

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Climate change has posed severe threats to many cultural landscapes of UNESCO world heritage sites recently. The UNESCO State of Conservation (SOC) reports categorized flooding, temperature increment, and drought as threats to cultural landscapes. This study aimed to examine variations and trends of rainfall and temperature extreme events and their threats to the UNESCO-designated Konso Cultural Landscape in southern Ethiopia. The study used dense merged satellite-gauge station rainfall data (1981-2020) with spatial resolution of 4km by 4km and observed maximum and minimum temperature data (1987-2020). Qualitative data were also gathered from cultural leaders, local administrators, and religious leaders using structured interview checklists. The spatial patterns, coefficient of variation, standardized anomalies, trends, and magnitude of change of rainfall and temperature extreme events both at annual and seasonal levels were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator under the CDT package. The standard precipitation index (SPI) was also used to calculate drought severity, frequency, and trend maps. The data gathered from key informant interviews and focus group discussions were coded and analyzed thematically to complement statistical findings. Thematic areas that explain the impacts of extreme events on the cultural landscape were chosen for coding. The thematic analysis was conducted using Nvivo software. The findings revealed that rainfall was highly variable and unpredictable, resulting in extreme drought and flood. There were significant (P<0.05) increasing trends of heavy rainfall (R10mm and R20mm) and the total amount of rain on wet days (PRCPTOT), which might have resulted in flooding. The study also confirmed that absolute temperature extreme indices (TXx, TXn, and TNx) and the percentile-based temperature extreme indices (TX90p, TN90p, TX10p, and TN10P) showed significant (P<0.05) increasing trends which are signals for warming of the study area. The results revealed that the frequency as well as the severity of drought at 3-months (katana/hageya seasons) was more pronounced than the 12-months (annual) time scale. The highest number of droughts in 100 years is projected at a 3-months timescale across the study area. The findings also showed that frequent drought has led to loss of grasses which are used for making traditional individual houses and multipurpose communal houses (pafta), food insecurity, migration, loss of biodiversity, and commodification of stones from terrace. On the other hand, the increasing trends of rainfall extreme indices resulted in destruction of terraces, soil erosion, loss of life and damage of properties. The study shows that a persistent decline in farmland productivity, due to erratic and extreme rainfall and frequent drought occurrences, forced the local people to participate in non-farm activities and retreat from daily preservation and management of their landscape. Overall, the increasing rainfall and temperature extremes coupled with prevalence of drought are thought to have an impact on the sustainability of cultural landscape through disrupting the ecosystem services and livelihood of the community. Therefore, more localized adaptation and mitigation strategies to the changing climate are needed to maintain the sustainability of Konso cultural landscapes as a global cultural treasure and to strengthen the resilience of smallholder farmers.

Keywords: adaptation, cultural landscape, drought, extremes indices

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