Search results for: ecological risk assessment

Authors: M. Miljkovic, A. Urakpo, M. Simic-Koumoutsaris

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Benefit-risk assessment (BRA) is a valuable tool that takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's lifecycle, and this assessment can be conducted in a variety of ways. The aim was to summarize current BRA methods used during approval decisions and in post-approval settings and to see possible future directions. Relevant reviews, recommendations, and guidelines published in medical literature and through regulatory agencies over the past five years have been examined. BRA implies the review of two dimensions: the dimension of benefits (determined mainly by the therapeutic efficacy) and the dimension of risks (comprises the safety profile of a drug). Regulators, industry, and academia have developed various approaches, ranging from descriptive textual (qualitative) to decision-analytic (quantitative) models, to facilitate the BRA of medicines during the product lifecycle (from Phase I trials, to authorization procedure, post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies). These approaches can be classified into the following categories: stepwise structured approaches (frameworks); measures for benefits and risks that are usually endpoint specific (metrics), simulation techniques and meta-analysis (estimation techniques), and utility survey techniques to elicit stakeholders’ preferences (utilities). All these approaches share the following two common goals: to assist this analysis and to improve the communication of decisions, but each is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Before using any method, its utility, complexity, the extent to which it is established, and the ease of results interpretation should be considered. Despite widespread and long-time use, BRA is subject to debate, suffers from a number of limitations, and currently is still under development. The use of formal, systematic structured approaches to BRA for regulatory decision-making and quantitative methods to support BRA during the product lifecycle is a standard practice in medicine that is subject to continuous improvement and modernization, not only in methodology but also in cooperation between organizations.

Keywords: benefit-risk assessment, benefit-risk profile, product lifecycle, quantitative methods, structured approaches

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

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This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision-making.

Keywords: ecosystem model, environmental security, fuzzy logic, sustainability of habitable regions

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Authors: Rajlakshmi Banerjee, Sujoy Banerjee

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The prevalence of malnutrition, as the most common cause of morbidity and mortality increases with old age, especially in developing countries like India, because of many factors out of which dentate status is one. It affects diet, nutritional status and general health due to reduced chewing ability and poor food choices. Aim and Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the effect of nutritional status, dietary intake on the Oral Health-related Quality of life (OHRQoL) of elderly edentulous complete denture wearing patients and to know whether they are at a higher risk of malnutrition. The objective was to assess the need to include dietary and nutritional counselling during Prosthodontic rehabilitation of elderly edentulous patients. Materials and method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 200 elderly denture wearing patients above 60 yrs of age from Nagpur, Maharashtra. The majority of study subjects (60%) were between the age group 60 and 75 years. Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA) Questionnaire was used to assess nutritional status and General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) questionnaire was used to determine the Oral health related Quality of life of these patients.Descriptive statistics was used to analyze data using SPSS version 21. Results: Among the assessed subjects, nearly 80% of them had total scores of GOHAI between 12 and 57 which require ‘needed dental care.’ As per MNA, 10.5% had adequate nutrition, 70 % were at risk of malnutrition, and remaining 19.5 % of subjects were malnourished. There was a significant correlation between GOHAI and MNA scores. A strong association was found between mean GOHAI and MNA scores and thereby nutritional status and OHRQOL.Conclusion: The use of conventional dentures increases the risk of malnutrition in the elderly due to inability to eat and chew food properly and therefore severely affecting the quality of life. Dietary analysis and counselling should be strictly incorporated into geriatric treatment planning during Prosthetic rehabilitation.

Keywords: general oral health assessment index, General Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI), nutritional assessment, mini-nutritional assessment, Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), quality of life

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

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In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. samples was collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) µg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) µg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4 - 253.8) µg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) µg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 µg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: air pollution, respiratory diseases, airQ2.2.3, Makkah

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Authors: Xiaoting Shi, Xiaomei Ma

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In higher education, students' self-assessment and peer assessment of compositions in writing classes can effectively improve their ability of evaluative judgment. However, students' self-assessment and peer assessment are not advocated by most teachers because of the significant difference in scoring compared with teacher assessment. This study used a multi-faceted Rasch model to explore whether an English writing checklist containing 30 descriptors can effectively improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. Meanwhile, a questionnaire was adopted to survey students’ and teachers’ attitudes toward self-assessment and peer assessment using the writing checklist. Results of the multi-faceted Rasch model analysis show that the writing checklist can effectively distinguish the students’ writing ability (separate coefficient = 2.05, separate reliability = 0.81, chi-square value (df = 32) = 123.4). Moreover, the results revealed that the checklist could improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. (separate coefficient = 1.71, separate reliability = 0.75, chi-square value (df=4) = 20.8). The results of the questionnaire showed that more than 85% of students and all teachers believed that the checklist had a good advantage in self-assessment and peer assessment, and they were willing to use the checklist to conduct self-assessment and peer assessment in class in the future.

Keywords: english writing, self-assessment, peer assessment, writing checklist

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Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

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Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aims to identify the understanding expectations of school administrators concerning school assessment. The researcher utilized a qualitative descriptive study on 19 administrators from three secondary schools in the North Kinta district. The respondents had been interviewed on their understanding expectations of school assessment using the focus group discussion method. Overall findings showed that the administrators’ understanding expectations of school assessment was weak; especially in terms of content focus, articulation across age and grade, transparency and fairness, as well as the pedagogical implications. Findings from interviews indicated that administrators explained their understanding expectations of school assessment from the aspect of school management, and not from the aspect of instructional leadership or specifically as assessment leaders. The study implications from the administrators’ understanding expectations may hint at the difficulty of the administrators to function as assessment leaders, in order to reduce their focus as manager, and move towards their primary role in the process of teaching and learning. The administrator, as assessment leaders, would be able to reach assessment goals via collaboration in identifying and listing teacher assessment competencies, how to construct assessment capacity, how to interpret assessment correctly, the use of assessment and how to use assessment information to communicate confidently and effectively to the public.

Keywords: assessment leaders, assessment goals, instructional leadership, understanding expectation of assessment

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Leveque Benjamin, Rabaud Suzanne, Anest Hugo, Catalan Caroline, Neveux Guillaume

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Human products consumption is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss. However, few pertinent ecological indicators regarding product life cycle impact on species and ecosystems have been built. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies are well under way to conceive standardized methods to assess this impact, by taking already partially into account three of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment pressures (land use, pollutions, climate change). Coupling LCA and ecological data and methods is an emerging challenge to develop a product biodiversity footprint. This approach was tested on three case studies from food processing, textile, and cosmetic industries. It allowed first to improve the environmental relevance of the Potential Disappeared Fraction of species, end-point indicator typically used in life cycle analysis methods, and second to introduce new indicators on overexploitation and invasive species. This type of footprint is a major step in helping companies to identify their impacts on biodiversity and to propose potential improvements.

Keywords: biodiversity, companies, footprint, life cycle assessment, products

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Authors: Abdul Kadir, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

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Batik Madura workers are exposed to many Musculoskeletal Disorders risk factors, particularly Low Back Pain (LBP). This study was conducted as an early detection of ergonomic risk level on Workers Industrial Sentra Batik Madura in Dusun Banyumas, Klampar Subdistrict, Proppo Pamekasan, Madura, East Java. This study includes 12 workers who 11 workers had pain in the upper and lower part of the neck, back, wrist right hand, also 10 workers had pain in the right shoulder. This is a descriptive observational study with cross-sectional approach. Qualitative research by observing workers activity such as draw and putting the wax motif, fabric dyeing, fabric painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The results are workers have identified ergonomic hazards such as awkward postures, twisting movements, repetitive, and static work postures. Using the method of REBA and QEC, the results get a very high-risk level of activity in each of Madura batik making process is the draw and putting the wax motif, coloring, painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The level of risk can be reduced by improvement of work equipment include the provision of seats, strut fabric, high settings furnaces, drums, coloring basin, and washing tub.

Keywords: activities of Madura's batik, ergonomic risk level, equipment, QEC (Quick Exposure Checklist), REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment)

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

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Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM_2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Jeremy Dixon

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Safeguarding adults forms a core part of social work practice. The Government in England and Wales has made efforts to standardise practices through The Care Act 2014. The Act states that local authorities have duties to make inquiries in cases where an adult with care or support needs is experiencing or at risk of abuse and is unable to protect themselves from abuse or neglect. Despite the importance given to safeguarding adults within law there remains little research about how social workers conduct such decisions on the ground. This presentation reports on findings from a pilot research study conducted within two social work teams in a Local Authority in England. The objective of the project was to find out how social workers interpreted safeguarding duties as laid out by The Care Act 2014 with a particular focus on how workers assessed and managed risk. Ethnographic research methods were used throughout the project. This paper focusses specifically on decisions made by workers in the assessment team. The paper reports on qualitative observation and interviews with five workers within this team. Drawing on governmentality theory, this paper analyses the techniques used by workers to manage risk from a distance. A high proportion of safeguarding referrals came from care workers or managers in residential care homes. Social workers conducting safeguarding assessments were aware that they had a duty to work in partnership with these agencies. However, their duty to safeguard adults also meant that they needed to view them as potential abusers. In making judgments about when it was proportionate to refer for a safeguarding assessment workers drew on a number of common beliefs about residential care workers which were then tested in conversations with them. Social workers held the belief that residential homes acted defensively, leading them to report any accident or danger. Social workers therefore encouraged residential workers to consider whether statutory criteria had been met and to use their own procedures to manage risk. In addition social workers carried out an assessment of the workers’ motives; specifically whether they were using safeguarding procedures as a shortcut for avoiding other assessments or as a means of accessing extra resources. Where potential abuse was identified social workers encouraged residential homes to use disciplinary policies as a means of isolating and managing risk. The study has implications for understanding risk within social work practice. It shows that whilst social workers use law to govern individuals, these laws are interpreted against cultural values. Additionally they also draw on assumptions about the culture of others.

Keywords: adult safeguarding, governmentality, risk, risk assessment

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Ilham Ihoume, Rachid Tadili, Nora Arbaoui

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The use of solar energy in agricultural applications has gained significant at‎tention ‎‎in recent years as a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative to ‎‎conventional energy sources. In particular, solar drying of crops has ‎been identified ‎‎as an effective method to preserve agricultural produce while ‎minimizing energy ‎‎consumption and reducing carbon emissions. In this context, the present study ‎‎aims to evaluate the thermo-economic and ecological ‎performance of a solar-electric hybrid greenhouse dryer designed for grape ‎drying. The proposed system ‎‎integrates solar collectors, an electric heater, ‎and a greenhouse structure to create a ‎‎controlled and energy-efficient environment for grape drying. The thermo-economic assessment involves the ‎analysis of the thermal performance, energy ‎‎consumption, and cost-effectiveness of the solar-electric hybrid greenhouse dryer. ‎‎On the other ‎hand, the ecological assessment focuses on the environmental impact ‎‎of the ‎system in terms of carbon emissions and sustainability. The findings of this ‎‎‎study are expected to contribute to the development of sustainable agricultural ‎‎practices and the promotion of renewable energy technologies in the ‎context of ‎‎food production. Moreover, the results may serve as a basis for the ‎design and ‎‎optimization of similar solar drying systems for other crops and ‎regions.‎

Keywords: solar energy, sustainability, agriculture, energy ‎‎analysis‎

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

Abstract:

Background: The objectives of this study were the association between physical and psychological risk factors for occupational lower back and neck pain among industrial workers. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 400 male workers of an industrial company over the previous 7days and 12 months. Data were collected using Nordic and third version of COPSOO questionnaires and QEC method for assessment of postures during the work. Results: The prevalence of LB and NP in the last 12 months is 58% and 52% respectively. The relationship between risk factors and low back/ neck pain in the last 12 months were cognitive demands (OR 995% CI 1.65) and (OR 995% CI 1.75); Influence at work (OR 995% CI 2.21) and (OR 995% CI 1.85); quality of leadership (OR 995% CI 2.42) and (OR 995% CI 2.09) was strongly correlated with complaints of low back and neck pains. Conclusion: Data of this study showed a higher prevalence of LBP and NP in the subjects. The results revealed that workers with work experience of more than 12 yrs. and who work more than 8 hrs. days with smoking habits had more probability to develop both LBP and NP.

Keywords: low back pain, neck pain, physical risk factors, psychological risk factors, QEC, COPSOQ III

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Authors: Sonda Jallouli, Sameh Ghroubi, Salma Sakka, Abdelmoneem Yahia, Mohamed Habib Elleuch, Imen Ben Dhia, Chokri Mhiri, Omar Hammouda

Abstract:

The pathophysiology, prevalence, and progression of MS are gender dependent. Indeed, the inflammation is more pronounced in women, but the neurodegeneration is more important in men. In addition, women have more sleep disorders while men suffer more from cognitive decline. These non-physical disorders can negatively affect postural balance and fall risk. However, no study has examined the difference between men and women in those physical parameters in MS. Our objective was to determine the effect gender difference on postural balance and fall risk in MS persons. Methods: Eight men and twelve women with relapsing remitting-MS participated in this study. The assessment includes a posturographic examination to assess static (with eyes opened (EO) and eyes closed (EC)) and dynamic (with EO) postural balance. Unipedal balance and fall risk were assessed by a clinical unipedal balance test and the Four Square Step Test, respectively. Sleep quality was assessed using Spiegel's questionnaire, and cognitive assessment was performed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Simple Reaction Time Test. Results: Compared to men, women showed an increase in CdPVm in static bipedal condition with EC (p=0.037; d=0.71) and a decrease in MoCA scores (p=0.028; d=1.06). No gender differences were found in the other tests. Discussion: Static postural balance was more impaired in women compared to men. This result could be explained by the more pronounced cognitive decline observed in women compared to men. Indeed, cognitive disorders have been shown to be predictive factors of postural balance impairment. Conclusion: women were less stable than men in the static condition, possibly due to their lower cognitive performance. This gender difference could be taken into account by therapists in training programs.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, bipedal postural balance, fall risk, sleep disturbance, cognitive deficiency

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

Abstract:

Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

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Authors: Aisha F. Bushager

Abstract:

Today we are more exposed than ever to cyber threats and attacks at personal, community, organizational, national, and international levels. More aspects of our lives are operating on computer networks simply because we are living in the fifth domain, which is called the Cyberspace. One of the most sensitive areas that are vulnerable to cyber threats and attacks is the Electronic Banking (e-Banking) area, where the banking sector is providing online banking services to its clients. To be able to obtain the clients trust and encourage them to practice e-Banking, also, to maintain the services provided by the banks and ensure safety, cyber security and risks control should be given a high priority in the e-banking area. The aim of the study is to carry out risk assessment on the e-banking services and determine the cyber threats, cyber attacks, and vulnerabilities that are facing the e-banking area specifically in the Kingdom of Bahrain. To collect relevant data, structured interviews were taken place with e-banking experts in different banks. Then, collected data where used as in input to the risk management framework provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which was the model used in the study to assess the risks associated with e-banking services. The findings of the study showed that the cyber threats are commonly human errors, technical software or hardware failure, and hackers, on the other hand, the most common attacks facing the e-banking sector were phishing, malware attacks, and denial-of-service. The risks associated with the e-banking services were around the moderate level, however, more controls and countermeasures must be applied to maintain the moderate level of risks. The results of the study will help banks discover their vulnerabilities and maintain their online services, in addition, it will enhance the cyber security and contribute to the management and control of risks that are facing the e-banking sector.

Keywords: cyber security, e-banking, risk assessment, threats identification

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Authors: M. A. Stoian, D. M. Cocarta, A. Badea

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The main sources of soil pollution due to petroleum contaminants are industrial processes involve crude oil. Soil polluted with crude oil is toxic for plants, animals, and humans. Human exposure to the contaminated soil occurs through different exposure pathways: Soil ingestion, diet, inhalation, and dermal contact. The present study research is focused on soil contamination with heavy metals as a consequence of soil pollution with petroleum products. Human exposure pathways considered are: Accidentally ingestion of contaminated soil and dermal contact. The purpose of the paper is to identify the human health risk (carcinogenic risk) from soil contaminated with heavy metals. The human exposure and risk were evaluated for five contaminants of concern of the eleven which were identified in soil. Two soil samples were collected from a bioremediation platform from Muntenia Region of Romania. The soil deposited on the bioremediation platform was contaminated through extraction and oil processing. For the research work, two average soil samples from two different plots were analyzed: The first one was slightly contaminated with petroleum products (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in soil was 1420 mg/kg_d.w.), while the second one was highly contaminated (TPH in soil was 24306 mg/kg_d.w.). In order to evaluate risks posed by heavy metals due soil pollution with petroleum products, five metals known as carcinogenic were investigated: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium^VI (Cr^VI), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb). Results of the chemical analysis performed on samples collected from the contaminated soil evidence soil contamination with heavy metals as following: As in Site 1 = 6.96 mg/kg_d.w; As in Site 2 = 11.62 mg/kg_d.w, Cd in Site 1 = 0.9 mg/kg_d.w; Cd in Site 2 = 1 mg/kg_d.w; Cr^VI was 0.1 mg/kg_d.w for both sites; Ni in Site 1 = 37.00 mg/kg_d.w; Ni in Site 2 = 42.46 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 1 = 34.67 mg/kg_d.w; Pb in Site 2 = 120.44 mg/kg_d.w. The concentrations for these metals exceed the normal values established in the Romanian regulation, but are smaller than the alert level for a less sensitive use of soil (industrial). Although, the concentrations do not exceed the thresholds, the next step was to assess the human health risk posed by soil contamination with these heavy metals. Results for risk were compared with the acceptable one (10^-6, according to World Human Organization). As, expected, the highest risk was identified for the soil with a higher degree of contamination: Individual Risk (IR) was 1.11×10^-5 compared with 8.61×10^-6. 

Keywords: carcinogenic risk, heavy metals, human health risk assessment, soil pollution

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

Abstract:

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Ramatu I. Sha’aba, Mathias A. Chia, Abdullahi B. Alhassan, Yisa A. Gana, Ibrahim M. Gadzama

Abstract:

Globally, Diclofenac (DLC) and Ibuprofen (IBU) are the most prescribed drugs due to their antipyretic and analgesic properties. They are, however, highly toxic at elevated doses, with the involvement of an already described oxidative stress pathway. As a result, there is rising concern about the ecological fate of analgesics on non-target organisms such as Daphnia magna and Phytoplankton species. Phytoplankton is a crucial component of the aquatic ecosystem that serves as the primary producer at the base of the food chain. However, the increasing presence and levels of micropollutants such as these analgesics can disrupt their community structure, dynamics, and ecosystem functions. This study presents a comprehensive series of the physiology, antioxidant response, immobilization, and risk assessment of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen’s effects on Daphnia magna and the Phytoplankton community using a laboratory approach. The effect of DLC and IBU at 27.16 µg/L and 20.89 µg/L, respectively, for a single exposure and 22.39 µg/L for combined exposure of DLC and IBU for the experimental setup. The antioxidant response increased with increasing levels of stress. The highest stressor to the organism was 1000 µg/L of DLC and 10,000 µg/L of IBU. Peroxidase and glutathione -S-transferase activity was higher for Diclofenac + Ibuprofen. The study showed 60% and 70% immobilization of the organism at 1000 g L-1 of DLC and IBU. The two drugs and their combinations adversely impacted Phytoplankton biomass with increased exposure time. However, combining the drugs resulted in more significant adverse effects on physiological and pigment content parameters. The risk assessment calculation for the risk quotient and toxic unit of the analgesic reveals from this study was RQ Diclofenac = 8.41, TU Diclofenac = 3.68, and RQ Ibuprofen = 718.05 and TU Ibuprofen = 487.70. Hence, these findings demonstrate that the current exposure concentrations of Diclofenac and Ibuprofen can immobilize D. magna. This study shows the dangers of multiple drugs in the aquatic environment because their combinations could have additive effects on the structure and functions of Phytoplankton and are capable of immobilizing D. magna.

Keywords: algae, analgesic drug, daphnia magna, toxicity

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Authors: Delva Richard, Zahibo Narcisse, Yalciner Ahmet

Abstract:

The Republic of Haiti is one of the poor countries of the world, therefore the authorities must make choices to provide timely solutions to the many difficulties that this Caribbean country is experiencing. There is a very acute lack of scientific research to study natural phenomena in depth. A working group meeting was established under the aegis of the World Bank, UNESCO and the authorities, to study the level of exposure of the Hispaniola. The devastating earthquake of August 2021 killed about 2100 and caused massive material damage; and the 14 12 January 2010 killed more than 250,000 people and caused massive material damage, the evidence of which is still 11 years later. In this paper we want to contribute to the assessment of the risk of tsunami on the southern peninsula of the Republic of Haiti. For the realization of this work we have the bathymetric and topographic data of very good qualities from the private measurement campaigns that we have combined with GEBCO for the inundation grids. We use two numerical models MOST and NAMI DANCE for the calculation of the parameters required in any tsunami risk assessment.

Keywords: modélisation numérique, ondes longues océaniques, bathymetrie, evaluation risque, tsunamis

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Authors: Sahar Maleki, Reza Shahbazi, Nayere Sadat Bayat Ghiasi

Abstract:

Applied geomorphological maps are crucial tools in engineering, particularly for the placement of structures. These maps provide precise information about the terrain, including landforms, soil types, and geological features, which are essential for making informed decisions about construction sites. The importance of these maps is evident in risk assessment, as they help identify potential hazards such as landslides, erosion, and flooding, enabling better risk management. Additionally, these maps assist in selecting the most suitable locations for engineering projects. Cost efficiency is another significant benefit, as proper site selection and risk assessment can lead to substantial cost savings by avoiding unsuitable areas and minimizing the need for extensive ground modifications. Ensuring the maps are accurate and up-to-date is crucial for reliable decision-making. Detailed information about various geomorphological features is necessary to provide a comprehensive overview. Integrating geomorphological data with other environmental and engineering data to create a holistic view of the site is one of the most fundamental steps in engineering. In summary, the preparation of applied geomorphological maps is a vital step in the planning and execution of engineering projects, ensuring safety, efficiency, and sustainability. In the Geological Survey of Iran, the preparation of these applied maps has enabled the identification and recognition of areas prone to geological hazards such as landslides, subsidence, earthquakes, and more. Additionally, areas with problematic soils, potential groundwater zones, and safe construction sites are identified and made available to the public.

Keywords: geomorphological maps, geohazards, risk assessment, decision-making

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