Search results for: workflow patterns
996 Stress-Controlled Senescence and Development in Arabidopsis thaliana by Root Associated Factor (RAF), a NAC Transcription Regulator
Authors: Iman Kamranfar, Gang-Ping Xue, Salma Balazadeh, Bernd Mueller-Roeber
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Adverse environmental conditions such as salinity stress, high temperature and drought limit plant growth and typically lead to precocious tissue degeneration and leaf senescence, a process by which nutrients from photosynthetic organs are recycled for the formation of flowers and seeds to secure reaching the next generation under such harmful conditions. In addition, abiotic stress affects developmental patterns that help the plant to withstand unfavourable environmental conditions. We discovered an NAC (for NAM, ATAF1, 2, and CUC2) transcription factor (TF), called RAF in the following, which plays a central role in abiotic drought stress-triggered senescence and the control of developmental adaptations to stressful environments. RAF is an ABA-responsive TF; RAF overexpressors are hypersensitive to abscisic acid (ABA) and exhibit precocious senescence while knock-out mutants show delayed senescence. To explore the RAF gene regulatory network (GRN), we determined its preferred DNA binding sites by binding site selection assay (BSSA) and performed microarray-based expression profiling using inducible RAF overexpression lines and chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP)-PCR. Our studies identified several direct target genes, including those encoding for catabolic enzymes acting during stress-induced senescence. Furthermore, we identified various genes controlling drought stress-related developmental changes. Based on our results, we conclude that RAF functions as a central transcriptional regulator that coordinates developmental programs with stress-related inputs from the environment. To explore the potential agricultural applications of our findings, we are currently extending our studies towards crop species.Keywords: abiotic stress, Arabidopsis, development, transcription factor
Procedia PDF Downloads 195995 Temporal Changes of Heterogeneous Subpopulations of Human Adipose-Derived Stromal/Stem Cells in vitro
Authors: Qiuyue Peng, Vladimir Zachar
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The application of adipose-derived stromal/stem cells (ASCs) in regenerative medicine is gaining more awareness due to their advanced translational potential and abundant source preparations. However, ASC-based translation has been confounded by high subpopulation heterogeneity, causing ambiguity about its precise therapeutic value. Some phenotypes defined by a unique combination of positive and negative surface markers have been found beneficial to the required roles. Therefore, the immunophenotypic repertoires of cultured ASCs and temporal changes of distinct subsets were investigated in this study. ASCs from three donors undergoing cosmetic liposuction were cultured in standard culturing methods, and the co-expression patterns based on the combination of selected markers at passages 1, 4, and 8 were analyzed by multi-chromatic flow cytometry. The results showed that the level of heterogeneity of subpopulations of ASCs became lower by in vitro expansion. After a few passages, most of the CD166⁺/CD274⁺/CD271⁺ based subpopulations converged to CD166 single positive cells. Meanwhile, these CD29⁺CD201⁺ double-positive cells, in combination with CD36/Stro-1 expression or without, feathered only the major epitopes and maintained prevailing throughout the whole process. This study suggested that, upon in vitro expansion, the phenotype repertoire of ASCs redistributed and stabilized in a way that cells co-expressing exclusively the strong markers remained dominant. These preliminary findings provide a general overview of the distribution of heterogeneous subsets residents within human ASCs during expansion in vitro. It is a critical step to fully characterize ASCs before clinical application, although the biological effects of heterogeneous subpopulations still need to be clarified.Keywords: adipose-derived stromal/stem cells, heterogeneity, immunophenotype, subpopulations
Procedia PDF Downloads 114994 Reimagining the Management of Telco Supply Chain with Blockchain
Authors: Jeaha Yang, Ahmed Khan, Donna L. Rodela, Mohammed A. Qaudeer
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Traditional supply chain silos still exist today due to the difficulty of establishing trust between various partners and technological barriers across industries. Companies lose opportunities and revenue and inadvertently make poor business decisions resulting in further challenges. Blockchain technology can bring a new level of transparency through sharing information with a distributed ledger in a decentralized manner that creates a basis of trust for business. Blockchain is a loosely coupled, hub-style communication network in which trading partners can work indirectly with each other for simpler integration, but they work together through the orchestration of their supply chain operations under a coherent process that is developed jointly. A Blockchain increases efficiencies, lowers costs, and improves interoperability to strengthen and automate the supply chain management process while all partners share the risk. Blockchain ledger is built to track inventory lifecycle for supply chain transparency and keeps a journal of inventory movement for real-time reconciliation. State design patterns are used to capture the life cycle (behavior) of inventory management as a state machine for a common, transparent and coherent process which creates an opportunity for trading partners to become more responsive in terms of changes or improvements in process, reconcile discrepancies, and comply with internal governance and external regulations. It enables end-to-end, inter-company visibility at the unit level for more accurate demand planning with better insight into order fulfillment and replenishment.Keywords: supply chain management, inventory trace-ability, perpetual inventory system, inventory lifecycle, blockchain, inventory consignment, supply chain transparency, digital thread, demand planning, hyper ledger fabric
Procedia PDF Downloads 90993 Injury Patterns and Outcomes in Alcohol Intoxicated Trauma Patients Admitted at Level I Apex Trauma Centre of a Developing Nation
Authors: G. Kaushik, A. Gupta, S. Lalwani, K. D. Soni, S. Kumar, S. Sagar
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Objective: Alcohol is a leading risk factor associated with the disability and death due to RTI. Present study aims to demonstrate the demographic profile, injury pattern, physiological parameters of victims of trauma following alcohol consumption arriving in the emergency department (ED) and mortality in alcohol intoxicated trauma patients admitted to Apex Trauma Center in Delhi. Design and Methods: Present study was performed in randomly selected 182 alcohol breath analyzer tested RTI patients from the emergency department of Jai Prakash Narayan Apex Trauma Center (JPNATC), All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi for over a period of 3 months started from September 2013 to November 2013. Results: A total 182 RTI patients with blunt injury were selected between 30-40 years of age and equally distributed to male and female group. Of these, 93 (51%) were alcohol negative and 89 (49%) were alcohol positive. In 89 alcohol positive patients, 47 (53%) had Artificial Airway as compared to 17 (18%), (p < 0.001) in the other group. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score was lower (p < 0.001) and higher Injury Severity Score (ISS) was observed in alcohol positive group as compared to other group (p < 0.03). Increased number of patients (58%) were admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), in alcohol positive group (p < 0.001) and they were in ICU for longer time compare to other group (p < 0.001). The alcohol positive patients were on ventilator support for longer duration as compared to non-alcoholic group (p < 0.001). Mortality rate was higher in alcohol intoxicated patients as compared to non-alcoholic RTI patients, however, the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: This study revealed that GCS, mean ISS, ICU stay, ventilation time etc. might have considerable impact on mortality in alcohol intoxicated patients as compared to non-alcoholic group.Keywords: road traffic injuries, alcohol, trauma, emergency department
Procedia PDF Downloads 317992 Numerical Aeroacoustics Investigation of Eroded and Coated Leading Edge of NACA 64- 618 Airfoil
Authors: Zeinab Gharibi, B. Stoevesandt, J. Peinke
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Long term surface erosion of wind turbine blades, especially at the leading edge, impairs aerodynamic performance; therefore, lowers efficiency of the blades mostly in the high-speed rotor tip regions. Blade protection provides significant improvements in annual energy production, reduces costly downtime, and protects the integrity of the blades. However, this protection still influences the aerodynamic behavior, and broadband noise caused by interaction between the impinging turbulence and blade’s leading edge. This paper presents an extensive numerical aeroacoustics approach by investigating the sound power spectra of the eroded and coated NACA 64-618 wind turbine airfoil and evaluates aeroacoustics improvements after the protection procedure. Using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), different quasi 2D numerical grids were implemented and special attention was paid to the refinement of the boundary layers. The noise sources were captured and decoupled with acoustic propagation via the derived formulation of Curle’s analogy implemented in OpenFOAM. Therefore, the noise spectra were compared for clean, coated and eroded profiles in the range of chord-based Reynolds number (1.6e6 ≤ Re ≤ 11.5e6). Angle of attack was zero in all cases. Verifications were conducted for the clean profile using available experimental data. Sensitivity studies for the far-field were done on different observational positions. Furthermore, beamforming studies were done simulating an Archimedean spiral microphone array for far-field noise directivity patterns. Comparing the noise spectra of the coated and eroded geometries, results show that, coating clearly improves aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the eroded airfoil.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, computational aeroacoustics, leading edge, OpenFOAM
Procedia PDF Downloads 223991 The Effect of Reaction Time on the Morphology and Phase of Quaternary Ferrite Nanoparticles (FeCoCrO₄) Synthesised from a Single Source Precursor
Authors: Khadijat Olabisi Abdulwahab, Mohammad Azad Malik, Paul O'Brien, Grigore Timco, Floriana Tuna
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The synthesis of spinel ferrite nanoparticles with a narrow size distribution is very crucial in their numerous applications including information storage, hyperthermia treatment, drug delivery, contrast agent in magnetic resonance imaging, catalysis, sensors, and environmental remediation. Ferrites have the general formula MFe₂O₄ (M = Fe, Co, Mn, Ni, Zn e.t.c) and possess remarkable electrical and magnetic properties which depend on the cations, method of preparation, size and their site occupancies. To the best of our knowledge, there are no reports on the use of a single source precursor to synthesise quaternary ferrite nanoparticles. Here in, we demonstrated the use of trimetallic iron pivalate cluster [CrCoFeO(O₂CᵗBu)₆(HO₂CᵗBu)₃] as a single source precursor to synthesise monodisperse cobalt chromium ferrite (FeCoCrO₄) nanoparticles by the hot injection thermolysis method. The precursor was thermolysed in oleylamine, oleic acid, with diphenyl ether as solvent at 260 °C. The effect of reaction time on the stoichiometry, phases or morphology of the nanoparticles was studied. The p-XRD patterns of the nanoparticles obtained after one hour was pure phase of cubic iron cobalt chromium ferrite (FeCoCrO₄). TEM showed that a more monodispersed spherical ferrite nanoparticles were obtained after one hour. Magnetic measurements revealed that the ferrite particles are superparamagnetic at room temperature. The nanoparticles were characterised by Powder X-ray Diffraction (p-XRD), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) and Super Conducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID).Keywords: cobalt chromium ferrite, colloidal, hot injection thermolysis, monodisperse, reaction time, single source precursor, quaternary ferrite nanoparticles
Procedia PDF Downloads 315990 Pneumoperitoneum Creation Assisted with Optical Coherence Tomography and Automatic Identification
Authors: Eric Yi-Hsiu Huang, Meng-Chun Kao, Wen-Chuan Kuo
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For every laparoscopic surgery, a safe pneumoperitoneumcreation (gaining access to the peritoneal cavity) is the first and essential step. However, closed pneumoperitoneum is usually obtained by blind insertion of a Veress needle into the peritoneal cavity, which may carry potential risks suchas bowel and vascular injury.Until now, there remains no definite measure to visually confirm the position of the needle tip inside the peritoneal cavity. Therefore, this study established an image-guided Veress needle method by combining a fiber probe with optical coherence tomography (OCT). An algorithm was also proposed for determining the exact location of the needle tip through the acquisition of OCT images. Our method not only generates a series of “live” two-dimensional (2D) images during the needle puncture toward the peritoneal cavity but also can eliminate operator variation in image judgment, thus improving peritoneal access safety. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Taipei Veterans General Hospital (Taipei VGH IACUC 2020-144). A total of 2400 in vivo OCT images, independent of each other, were acquired from experiments of forty peritoneal punctures on two piglets. Characteristic OCT image patterns could be observed during the puncturing process. The ROC curve demonstrates the discrimination capability of these quantitative image features of the classifier, showing the accuracy of the classifier for determining the inside vs. outside of the peritoneal was 98% (AUC=0.98). In summary, the present study demonstrates the ability of the combination of our proposed automatic identification method and OCT imaging for automatically and objectively identifying the location of the needle tip. OCT images translate the blind closed technique of peritoneal access into a visualized procedure, thus improving peritoneal access safety.Keywords: pneumoperitoneum, optical coherence tomography, automatic identification, veress needle
Procedia PDF Downloads 134989 Whatsapp Messaging Platform and Academic Performance of Mass Communication Students, Abdu Gusau Polytechnic, Talata Mafara
Authors: Ibrahim Magaji
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WhatsApp messaging platform brings about new opportunities for users to participate in unique storytelling experiences and audience engagement, particularly to Students of Mass communication who receive training to report events and issues accurately and objectively in accordance with official controls. Also, the complex nature of society today made it possible to use the WhatsApp platform that revolutionizes the means of sharing information, ideas, and experiences. This paper examined the WhatsApp messaging platform and how it influenced the academic performance of students in the Department of Mass Communication, Abdu Gusau Polytechnic, Talata Mafara. It used in-depth interview techniques and focus group discussion with students, as well as the use of published materials as well as unpublished materials to gather related and relevant data. Also, the paper used procedures involved to analyze long interview content. This procedure includes observation of a useful utterance, development of expanded observation, the examination of the interconnection of observed comments, collective scrutiny of observation for patterns and themes, and review and analysis of the themes across all interviews for development of the thesis. The result revealed that the majority of students used WhatsApp messenger for making friends and chatting. Also, the students experienced negative effects such as poor grammar and spelling, less study time, and poor academic performance because of active participation in the use of WhatsApp messaging platform. Surprisingly, there was a high addiction rate among students in the usage of WhatsApp messenger. However, other students experienced an improvement in their readings skills as a result of participation in the use of the platform. Also, students shared ideas, discussed, and shared examination questions among themselves on WhatsApp messenger.Keywords: WhatsApp messenger, students, participation, group
Procedia PDF Downloads 132988 Exploring the Growth Path under Coupling Relationship between Space and Economy of Mountain Village and Townlets: Case Study of Southwest China
Authors: Runlin Liu, Shilong Li
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China is a mountainous country, with two-thirds of its territory covered by plateaus, hills, and mountains, and nearly half of the cities and towns are distributed in mountainous areas. Compared with the environmental constraints in the development path of cities and towns in the plains, there are heterogeneities in aspects such as spatial characteristics, growth mode, and ecological protection and so on for mountain village and townlets, and the development path of mountain village and townlets has a bidirectional relationship between mountain space and economic growth. Based on classical growth theory, this article explores the two-dimensional coupling relation between space and economy in mountain village and townlets under background of rural rejuvenation. GIS technology is adopted in the study to analyze spatial trends and patterns, economical spatial differentiation characteristics of village and townlets. This powerful tool can also help differentiate and analyze limiting factors and assessment systems in the economic growth of village and townlets under spatial dimension of mountainous space. To make the research more specific, this article selects mountain village and townlets in Southwest China as the object of study; this provides good cases for analyzing parallel coupling mechanism of the duality structure system between economic growth and spatial expansion and discussing the path selection of spatial economic growth of mountain village and towns with multiple constraints. The research results can provide quantitative references for the spatial and economic development paths of mountain villages and towns, which is helpful in realizing efficient and high-quality development mode with equal emphasis on spatial and economic benefits for these type of towns.Keywords: coupling mechanism, geographic information technology, mountainous town, synergetic development, spatial economy
Procedia PDF Downloads 150987 Improving Access to Training for Parents of Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders through Telepractice: Parental Perception
Authors: Myriam Rousseau, Marie-Hélène Poulin, Suzie McKinnon, Jacinthe Bourassa
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Context: There is a growing demand for effective training programs for parents of children with autism spectrum disorders. While traditional in-person training is effective, it can be difficult for some parents to participate due to distance, time, and cost. Telepractice, a form of distance education, could be a viable alternative to address these challenges. Research objective: The objective of this study is to explore the experiences of parents of children with autism who participated in a training program offered by telepractice in order to document: 1) the experience of parents who participated in a program telepractice training program for autistic children, 2) parental satisfaction with the telepractice modality, and 3) potential benefits of using telepractice to deliver training programs to parents of autistic children. Method: This study followed a qualitative research design, and Braun and Clarke's six-step procedure was used for the thematic analysis of the comments provided by parents. Data were collected through individual interviews with parents who participated in the project. The analysis focused on identifying patterns and themes in the comments in order to better understand parents' experiences with the telepractice modality. Results: The study revealed that parents were generally satisfied with the telepractice modality, as it was easy to use and enabled a better balance between work and family. This modality also enabled parents to share and receive mutual support. Despite the positive results, it is still relevant to offer training in different modalities to meet the different needs of parents. Conclusion: The study shows that parents of children with autism are generally satisfied with telepractice as a training modality. The results suggest that telepractice can be an effective alternative to traditional face-to-face training. The study highlights the importance of taking parents' needs and preferences into account when designing and implementing training programs.Keywords: parents, children, training, telepractice
Procedia PDF Downloads 145986 Application of a Confirmatory Composite Model for Assessing the Extent of Agricultural Digitalization: A Case of Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) Farmers in South Africa
Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.
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Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 63985 Highly Efficient Ca-Doped CuS Counter Electrodes for Quantum Dot Sensitized Solar Cells
Authors: Mohammed Panthakkal Abdul Muthalif, Shanmugasundaram Kanagaraj, Jumi Park, Hangyu Park, Youngson Choe
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The present study reports the incorporation of calcium ions into the CuS counter electrodes (CEs) in order to modify the photovoltaic performance of quantum dot-sensitized solar cells (QDSSCs). Metal ion-doped CuS thin film was prepared by the chemical bath deposition (CBD) method on FTO substrate and used directly as counter electrodes for TiO₂/CdS/CdSe/ZnS photoanodes based QDSSCs. For the Ca-doped CuS thin films, copper nitrate and thioacetamide were used as anionic and cationic precursors. Calcium nitrate tetrahydrate was used as doping material. The surface morphology of Ca-doped CuS CEs indicates that the fragments are uniformly distributed, and the structure is densely packed with high crystallinity. The changes observed in the diffraction patterns suggest that Ca dopant can introduce increased disorder into CuS material structure. EDX analysis was employed to determine the elemental identification, and the results confirmed the presence of Cu, S, and Ca on the FTO glass substrate. The photovoltaic current density – voltage characteristics of Ca-doped CuS CEs shows the specific improvements in open circuit voltage decay (Voc) and short-circuit current density (Jsc). Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy results display that Ca-doped CuS CEs have greater electrocatalytic activity and charge transport capacity than bare CuS. All the experimental results indicate that 20% Ca-doped CuS CE based QDSSCs exhibit high power conversion efficiency (η) of 4.92%, short circuit current density of 15.47 mA cm⁻², open circuit photovoltage of 0.611 V, and fill factor (FF) of 0.521 under illumination of one sun.Keywords: Ca-doped CuS counter electrodes, surface morphology, chemical bath deposition method, electrocatalytic activity
Procedia PDF Downloads 164984 The Effect of Taekwondo on Plantar Pressure Distribution and Arch Index
Authors: Maryam Kakavand, Samira Entezari, Sara Khoshjamalfekri, Raghad Mimar
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The objective of this study is 1) to compare elite female and beginner taekwondo players in terms of plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure, and right and left longitudinal arches, and 2) to compare preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite players. To the best of authors’ knowledge, as of yet, there is no information available about the plantar pressure distribution and arch index among taekwondo players. Material and Methods: An analytical-comparative research method is applied. Therefore seven elite athletes and eight novice athletes were selected. The emed-C50 platform was used to assess plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure of different areas, and planter longitudinal arch in a second step protocol. Independent t-test and dependent t-test were used at a level of 0.05 to compare the elites and beginners' right and left feet, and preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite athletes, respectively. Results: In comparing the right and left limbs of elite and beginner groups, findings indicate that there is only a significant difference in the mean pressure of the first metatarsal of the right foot. Findings also showed a significant difference in the contact area of the toes 3, 4, 5 regions between elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups’ right and left limbs and elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs in terms of pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, and arch index. Conclusion: It seems that taekwondo exercises have affected pressure distribution patterns among advanced players causing some differences in their planter pressure distribution pattern when compared to that of beginners. Therefore, taekwondo exercises may be a factor contributing to asymmetry performance in preferred and non-preferred limbs.Keywords: planter pressure, arch index, taekwondo, elite
Procedia PDF Downloads 154983 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data
Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar
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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value
Procedia PDF Downloads 177982 Feature Evaluation Based on Random Subspace and Multiple-K Ensemble
Authors: Jaehong Yu, Seoung Bum Kim
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Clustering analysis can facilitate the extraction of intrinsic patterns in a dataset and reveal its natural groupings without requiring class information. For effective clustering analysis in high dimensional datasets, unsupervised dimensionality reduction is an important task. Unsupervised dimensionality reduction can generally be achieved by feature extraction or feature selection. In many situations, feature selection methods are more appropriate than feature extraction methods because of their clear interpretation with respect to the original features. The unsupervised feature selection can be categorized as feature subset selection and feature ranking method, and we focused on unsupervised feature ranking methods which evaluate the features based on their importance scores. Recently, several unsupervised feature ranking methods were developed based on ensemble approaches to achieve their higher accuracy and stability. However, most of the ensemble-based feature ranking methods require the true number of clusters. Furthermore, these algorithms evaluate the feature importance depending on the ensemble clustering solution, and they produce undesirable evaluation results if the clustering solutions are inaccurate. To address these limitations, we proposed an ensemble-based feature ranking method with random subspace and multiple-k ensemble (FRRM). The proposed FRRM algorithm evaluates the importance of each feature with the random subspace ensemble, and all evaluation results are combined with the ensemble importance scores. Moreover, FRRM does not require the determination of the true number of clusters in advance through the use of the multiple-k ensemble idea. Experiments on various benchmark datasets were conducted to examine the properties of the proposed FRRM algorithm and to compare its performance with that of existing feature ranking methods. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed FRRM outperformed the competitors.Keywords: clustering analysis, multiple-k ensemble, random subspace-based feature evaluation, unsupervised feature ranking
Procedia PDF Downloads 339981 Neural Networks Based Prediction of Long Term Rainfall: Nine Pilot Study Zones over the Mediterranean Basin
Authors: Racha El Kadiri, Mohamed Sultan, Henrique Momm, Zachary Blair, Rachel Schultz, Tamer Al-Bayoumi
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The Mediterranean Basin is a very diverse region of nationalities and climate zones, with a strong dependence on agricultural activities. Predicting long term (with a lead of 1 to 12 months) rainfall, and future droughts could contribute in a sustainable management of water resources and economical activities. In this study, an integrated approach was adopted to construct predictive tools with lead times of 0 to 12 months to forecast rainfall amounts over nine subzones of the Mediterranean Basin region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and intercorrelate temporal remote sensing-based rainfall products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]) throughout the investigation period (1979 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); (3) delineate homogenous climatic regions and select nine pilot study zones, (4) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, principal component analyses) to extract relationships between the observed rainfall and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and (5) use the constructed predictive tools to forecast monthly rainfall and dry and wet periods. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall and dry/wet periods were successfully predicted with lead zones of 0 to 12 months using the adopted methodology, and that the approach is more accurately applicable in the southern Mediterranean region.Keywords: rainfall, neural networks, climatic indices, Mediterranean
Procedia PDF Downloads 312980 Is More Inclusive More Effective? The 'New Style' Public Distribution System in India
Authors: Avinash Kishore, Suman Chakrabarti
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In September 2013, the parliament of India enacted the National Food Security Act (NFSA) which entitles two-thirds of India’s population to five kilograms of rice, wheat or coarse cereals per person per month at one to three rupees per kilogram. Five states in India—Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal—had already implemented somewhat similar changes in the TPDS a few years earlier using their own budgetary resources. They made rice—coincidentally, all five states are predominantly rice-eating—available in fair price shops to a majority of their population at very low prices (less than Rs.3/kg). This paper tries to account for the changes in household consumption patterns associated with the change in TPDS policy in these states using data from household consumption surveys by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). NSS data show improvement in the coverage of TPDS and average off-take of grains from fair price shops between 2004-05 and 2009-10 across all states of India. However, the increase in coverage and off-take was significantly higher in four out of these five states than in the rest of India. An average household in these states purchased three kilos more rice per month from fair price shops than its counterpart in non-treated states as a result of more generous TPDS policies backed by administrative reforms. The increase in consumption of PDS rice was the highest in Chhattisgarh, the poster state of PDS reforms. Households in Chhattisgarh used money saved on rice to spend more on pulses, edible oil, vegetables and sugar and other non-food items. We also find evidence that making TPDS more inclusive and more generous is not enough unless it is supported by administrative reforms to improve grain delivery and control diversion to open markets.Keywords: public distribution system, social safety-net, national food security act, diet quality, Chhattisgarh
Procedia PDF Downloads 374979 Geographic Information System Application for Predicting Tourism Development in Gunungkidul Regency, Indonesia
Authors: Nindyo Cahyo Kresnanto, Muhamad Willdan, Wika Harisa Putri
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Gunungkidul is one of the emerging tourism industry areas in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia. This article describes how GIS can predict the development of tourism potential in Gunungkidul. The tourism sector in Gunungkidul Regency contributes 3.34% of the total gross regional domestic product and is the economic sector with the highest growth with a percentage of 18.37% in the post-Covid-19 period. This contribution makes researchers consider that several tourist sites need to be explored more to increase regional economic development gradually. This research starts by collecting spatial data from tourist locations tourists want to visit in Gunungkidul Regency based on survey data from 571 respondents. Then the data is visualized with ArcGIS software. This research shows an overview of tourist destinations interested in travellers depicted from the lowest to the highest from the data visualization. Based on the data visualization results, specific tourist locations potentially developed to influence the surrounding economy positively. The visualization of the data displayed is also in the form of a desire line map that shows tourist travel patterns from the origin of the tourist to the destination of the tourist location of interest. From the desire line, the prediction of the path of tourist sites with a high frequency of transportation activity can figure out. Predictions regarding specific tourist location routes that high transportation activities can burden can consider which routes will be chosen. The route also needs to be improved in terms of capacity and quality. The goal is to provide a sense of security and comfort for tourists who drive and positively impact the tourist sites traversed by the route.Keywords: tourism development, GIS and survey, transportation, potential desire line
Procedia PDF Downloads 66978 Factors Associated with Acute Kidney Injury in Multiple Trauma Patients with Rhabdomyolysis
Authors: Yong Hwang, Kang Yeol Suh, Yundeok Jang, Tae Hoon Kim
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Introduction: Rhabdomyolysis is a syndrome characterized by muscle necrosis and the release of intracellular muscle constituents into the circulation. Acute kidney injury is a potential complication of severe rhabdomyolysis and the prognosis is substantially worse if renal failure develops. We try to identify the factors that were predictive of AKI in severe trauma patients with rhabdomyolysis. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the emergency department of a level Ⅰ trauma center. Patients enrolled that initial creatine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were higher than 1000 IU with acute multiple trauma, and more than 18 years older from Oct. 2012 to June 2016. We collected demographic data (age, gender, length of hospital day, and patients’ outcome), laboratory data (ABGA, lactate, hemoglobin. hematocrit, platelet, LDH, myoglobin, liver enzyme, and BUN/Cr), and clinical data (Injury Mechanism, RTS, ISS, AIS, and TRISS). The data were compared and analyzed between AKI and Non-AKI group. Statistical analyses were performed using IMB SPSS 20.0 statistics for Window. Results: Three hundred sixty-four patients were enrolled that AKI group were ninety-six and non-AKI group were two hundred sixty-eight. The base excess (HCO3), AST/ALT, LDH, and myoglobin in AKI group were significantly higher than non-AKI group from laboratory data (p ≤ 0.05). The injury severity score (ISS), revised Trauma Score (RTS), Abbreviated Injury Scale 3 and 4 (AIS 3 and 4) were showed significant results in clinical data. The patterns of CPK level were increased from first and second day, but slightly decreased from third day in both group. Seven patients had received hemodialysis treatment despite the bleeding risk and were survived in AKI group. Conclusion: We recommend that HCO3, CPK, LDH, and myoglobin should be checked and be concerned about ISS, RTS, AIS with injury mechanism at the early stage of treatment in the emergency department.Keywords: acute kidney injury, emergencies, multiple trauma, rhabdomyolysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 339977 Statistical Process Control in Manufacturing, a Case Study on an Iranian Automobile Company
Authors: M. E. Khiav, D. J. Borah, H. T. S. Santos, V. T. Faria
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For automobile companies, it has become very important to ensure sound quality in manufacturing and assembling in order to prevent occurrence of defects and to reduce the amount of parts replacements to be done in the service centers during the warranty period. Statistical Process Control (SPC) is widely used as the tool to analyze the quality of such processes and plays a significant role in the improvement of the processes by identifying the patterns and the location of the defects. In this paper, a case study has been conducted on an Iranian automobile company. This paper performs a quality analysis of a particular component called “Internal Bearing for the Back Wheel” of a particular car model, manufactured by the company, based on the 10 million data received from its service centers located all over the country. By creating control charts including X bar–S charts and EWMA charts, it has been observed after the year 2009, the specific component underwent frequent failures and there has been a sharp dip in the average distance covered by the cars till the specific component requires replacement/maintenance. Correlation analysis was performed to find out the reasons that might have affected the quality of the specific component in all the cars produced by the company after the year 2009. Apart from manufacturing issues, some political and environmental factors have been identified to have a potential impact on the quality of the component. A maiden attempt has been made to analyze the quality issues within an Iranian automobile manufacturer; such issues often get neglected in developing countries. The paper also discusses the possibility of political scenario of Iran and the country’s environmental conditions affecting the quality of the end products, which not only strengthens the extant literature but also provides a new direction for future research.Keywords: capability analysis, car manufacturing, statistical process control, quality control, quality tools
Procedia PDF Downloads 380976 Alternate Methods to Visualize 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Result
Authors: Hong Beom Hur
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Politics in America is polarized. The best illustration of this is the 2016 presidential election result map. States with megacities like California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, and others are marked blue to signify the color of the Democratic party. States located in inland and south like Texas, Florida, Tennesse, Kansas and others are marked red to signify the color of the Republican party. Such a stark difference between two colors, red and blue, combined with geolocations of each state with their borderline remarks one central message; America is divided into two colors between urban Democrats and rural Republicans. This paper seeks to defy the visualization by pointing out its limitations and search for alternative ways to visualize the 2016 election result. One such limitation is that geolocations of each state and state borderlines limit the visualization of population density. As a result, the election result map does not convey the fact that Clinton won the popular vote and only accentuates the voting patterns of urban and rural states. The paper seeks whether an alternative narrative can be observed by factoring in the population number into the size of each state and manipulating the state borderline according to the normalization. Yet another alternative narrative may be reached by factoring the size of each state by the number of the electoral college of each state by voting and visualize the number. Other alternatives will be discussed but are not implemented in visualization. Such methods include dividing the land of America into about 120 million cubes each representing a voter or by the number of whole population 300 million cubes. By exploring these alternative methods to visualize the politics of the 2016 election map, the public may be able to question whether it is possible to be free from the narrative of the divide-conquer when interpreting the election map and to look at both parties as a story of the United States of America.Keywords: 2016 U.S. presidential election, data visualization, population scale, geo-political
Procedia PDF Downloads 121975 Monodisperse Quaternary Cobalt Chromium Ferrite Nanoparticles Synthesised from a Single Source Precursor
Authors: Khadijat O. Abdulwahab, Mohammad A. Malik, Paul O’Brien, Grigore A. Timco, Floriana Tuna
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The synthesis of spinel ferrite nanoparticles with a narrow size distribution is very crucial in their numerous applications including information storage, hyperthermia treatment, drug delivery, contrast agent in magnetic resonance imaging, catalysis, sensors, and environmental remediation. Ferrites have the general formula MFe2O4 (M = Fe, Co, Mn, Ni, Zn etc.) and possess remarkable electrical and magnetic properties which depend on the cations, method of preparation, size and their site occupancies. To the best of our knowledge, there are no reports on the use of a single source precursor to synthesise quaternary ferrite nanoparticles. Herein, we demonstrated the use of trimetallic iron pivalate cluster [CrCoFeO(O2CtBu)6(HO2CtBu)3] as a single source precursor to synthesise monodisperse cobalt chromium ferrite (FeCoCrO4) nanoparticles by the hot injection thermolysis method. The precursor was thermolysed in oleylamine, oleic acid, with diphenyl ether as solvent at its boiling point (260°C). The effect of concentration on the stoichiometry, phases or morphology of the nanoparticles was studied. The p-XRD patterns of the nanoparticles obtained at both concentrations were matched with cubic iron cobalt chromium ferrite (FeCoCrO4). TEM showed that a more monodispersed spherical ferrite nanoparticles of average diameter 4.0 ± 0.4 nm were obtained at higher precursor concentration. Magnetic measurements revealed that all the ferrite particles are superparamagnetic at room temperature. The nanoparticles were characterised by Powder X-ray Diffraction (p-XRD), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP), Electron Probe Microanalysis (EPMA), Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) and Super Conducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID).Keywords: quaternary ferrite nanoparticles, single source precursor, monodisperse, cobalt chromium ferrite, colloidal, hot injection thermolysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 273974 Breeding Cotton for Annual Growth Habit: Remobilizing End-of-season Perennial Reserves for Increased Yield
Authors: Salman Naveed, Nitant Gandhi, Grant Billings, Zachary Jones, B. Todd Campbell, Michael Jones, Sachin Rustgi
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Cotton (Gossypium spp.) is the primary source of natural fiber in the U.S. and a major crop in the Southeastern U.S. Despite constant efforts to increase the cotton fiber yield, the yield gain has stagnated. Therefore, we undertook a novel approach to improve the cotton fiber yield by altering its growth habit from perennial to annual. In this effort, we identified genotypes with high-expression alleles of five floral induction and meristem identity genes (FT, SOC1, FUL, LFY, and AP1) from an upland cotton mini-core collection and crossed them in various combinations to develop cotton lines with annual growth habit, optimal flowering time and enhanced productivity. To facilitate the characterization of genotypes with the desired combinations of stacked alleles, we identified markers associated with the gene expression traits via genome-wide association analysis using a 63K SNP Array (Hulse-Kemp et al. 2015 G3 5:1187). Over 14,500 SNPs showed polymorphism and were used for association analysis. A total of 396 markers showed association with expression traits. Out of these 396 markers, 159 mapped to genes, 50 to untranslated regions, and 187 to random genomic regions. Biased genomic distribution of associated markers was observed where more trait-associated markers mapped to the cotton D sub-genome. Many quantitative trait loci coincided at specific genomic regions. This observation has implications as these traits could be bred together. The analysis also allowed the identification of candidate regulators of the expression patterns of these floral induction and meristem identity genes whose functions will be validated via virus-induced gene silencing.Keywords: cotton, GWAS, QTL, expression traits
Procedia PDF Downloads 151973 Efficacy of Phonological Awareness Intervention for People with Language Impairment
Authors: I. Wardana Ketut, I. Suparwa Nyoman
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This study investigated the form and characteristic of speech sound produced by three Balinese subjects who have recovered from aphasia as well as intervened their language impairment on side of linguistic and neuronal aspects of views. The failure of judging the speech sound was caused by impairment of motor cortex that indicated there were lesions in left hemispheric language zone. Sound articulation phenomena were in the forms of phonemes deletion, replacement or assimilation in individual words and meaning building for anomic aphasia. Therefore, the Balinese sound patterns were stimulated by showing pictures to the subjects and recorded to recognize what individual consonants or vowels they unclearly produced and to find out how the sound disorder occurred. The physiology of sound production by subject’s speech organs could not only show the accuracy of articulation but also any level of severity the lesion they suffered from. The subjects’ speech sounds were investigated, classified and analyzed to know how poor the lingual units were and observed to clarify weaknesses of sound characters occurred either for place or manner of articulation. Many fricative and stopped consonants were replaced by glottal or palatal sounds because the cranial nerve, such as facial, trigeminal, and hypoglossal underwent impairment after the stroke. The phonological intervention was applied through a technique called phonemic articulation drill and the examination was conducted to know any change has been obtained. The finding informed that some weak articulation turned into clearer sound and simple meaning of language has been conveyed. The hierarchy of functional parts of brain played important role of language formulation and processing. From this finding, it can be clearly emphasized that this study supports the role of right hemisphere in recovery from aphasia is associated with functional brain reorganization.Keywords: aphasia, intervention, phonology, stroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 196972 Elements of Successful Commercial Streets: A Socio-Spatial Analysis of Commercial Streets in Cairo
Authors: Toka Aly
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Historically, marketplaces were the most important nodes and focal points of cities, where different activities took place. Commercial streets offer more than just spaces for shopping; they also offer choices for social activities and cultural exchange. They are considered the backbone of the city’s vibrancy and vitality. Despite that, the public life in Cairo’s commercial streets has deteriorated, where the shopping activities became reliant mainly on 'planned formal places', mainly in privatized or indoor spaces like shopping malls. The main aim of this paper is to explore the key elements and tools of assessing the successfulness of commercial streets in Cairo. The methodology followed in this paper is based on a case study methodology (multiple cases) that is based on assessing and analyzing the physical and social elements in historical and contemporary commercial streets in El Muiz Street and Baghdad Street in Cairo. The data collection is based on personal observations, photographs, maps and street sections. Findings indicate that the key factors of analyzing commercial streets are factors affecting the sensory experience, factors affecting the social behavior, and general aspects that attract people. Findings also indicate that urban features have clear influence on shopping pedestrian activities in both streets. Moreover, in order for a commercial street to be successful, shopping patterns must provide people with a quality public space that can provide easy navigation and accessibility, good visual continuity, and well-designed urban features and social gathering. Outcomes of this study will be a significant endeavor in providing a good background for urban designers on analyzing and assessing successfulness of commercial streets. The study will also help in understanding the different physical and social pattern of vending activities taking place in Cairo.Keywords: activities, commercial street, marketplace, successful, vending
Procedia PDF Downloads 303971 Evaluating Structural Crack Propagation Induced by Soundless Chemical Demolition Agent Using an Energy Release Rate Approach
Authors: Shyaka Eugene
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The efficient and safe demolition of structures is a critical challenge in civil engineering and construction. This study focuses on the development of optimal demolition strategies by investigating the crack propagation behavior in beams induced by soundless cracking agents. It is commonly used in controlled demolition and has gained prominence due to its non-explosive and environmentally friendly nature. This research employs a comprehensive experimental and computational approach to analyze the crack initiation, propagation, and eventual failure in beams subjected to soundless cracking agents. Experimental testing involves the application of various cracking agents under controlled conditions to understand their effects on the structural integrity of beams. High-resolution imaging and strain measurements are used to capture the crack propagation process. In parallel, numerical simulations are conducted using advanced finite element analysis (FEA) techniques to model crack propagation in beams, considering various parameters such as cracking agent composition, loading conditions, and beam properties. The FEA models are validated against experimental results, ensuring their accuracy in predicting crack propagation patterns. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into optimizing demolition strategies, allowing engineers and demolition experts to make informed decisions regarding the selection of cracking agents, their application techniques, and structural reinforcement methods. Ultimately, this research contributes to enhancing the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of demolition practices in the construction industry, reducing environmental impact and ensuring the protection of adjacent structures and the surrounding environment.Keywords: expansion pressure, energy release rate, soundless chemical demolition agent, crack propagation
Procedia PDF Downloads 63970 Optimisation Model for Maximising Social Sustainability in Construction Scheduling
Authors: Laura Florez
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The construction industry is labour intensive, and the behaviour and management of workers have a direct impact on the performance of construction projects. One of the issues it currently faces is how to recruit and maintain its workers. Construction is known as an industry where workers face the problem of short employment durations, frequent layoffs, and periods of unemployment between jobs. These challenges not only creates pressures on the workers but also project managers have to constantly train new workers, face skills shortage, and uncertainty on the quality of the workers it will attract. To consider worker’s needs and project managers expectations, one practice that can be implemented is to schedule construction projects to maintain a stable workforce. This paper proposes a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to schedule projects with the objective of maximising social sustainability of construction projects, that is, maximise labour stability. Aside from the social objective, the model accounts for equipment and financial resources required by the projects during the construction phase. To illustrate how the solution strategy works, a construction programme comprised of ten projects is considered. The projects are scheduled to maximise labour stability while simultaneously minimising time and minimising cost. The tradeoff between the values in terms of time, cost, and labour stability allows project managers to consider their preferences and identify which solution best suits their needs. Additionally, the model determines the optimal starting times for each of the projects, working patterns for the workers, and labour costs. This model shows that construction projects can be scheduled to not only benefit the project manager, but also benefit current workers and help attract new workers to the industry. Due to its practicality, it can be a valuable tool to support decision making and assist construction stakeholders when developing schedules that include social sustainability factors.Keywords: labour stability, mixed-integer programming (MIP), scheduling, workforce management
Procedia PDF Downloads 253969 Psychedelic Assisted-Treatment for Patients with Opioid Use Disorder
Authors: Daniele Zullino, Gabriel Thorens, Léonice Furtado, Federico Seragnoli, Radu Iuga, Louise Penzenstadler
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Context: Since the start of the 21st century, there has been a resurgence of interest in psychedelics, marked by a renewed focus on scientific investigations into their therapeutic potential. While psychedelic therapy has gained recognition for effectively treating depression and anxiety disorders, notable progress has been made in the clinical development of substances like psilocybin. Moreover, mounting evidence suggests promising applications of Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) and psilocybin in the field of addiction medicine. In Switzerland, compassionate treatment with LSD and psilocybin has been permitted since 2014 through exceptional licenses granted by the Federal Office of Public Health. This treatment approach is also available within the Geneva treatment program, extending its accessibility to patients undergoing opioid-assisted treatment involving substances like morphine and diacetylmorphine. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychedelic-assisted therapy in patients with opioid use disorder who are undergoing opioid-assisted treatment. This study addresses the question of whether psychedelic-assisted therapy can be successfully implemented in patients with opioid use disorder. It also explores the effects of psychedelic therapy on the patient's experiences and outcomes. Methodology: This is an open case series on six patients who have undergone at least one session with either LSD (100-200 micrograms) or psilocybin (20-40 mg). The patients were assessed using the Five Dimensional Altered States of Consciousness (5D-ASC)-Scale. The data were analyzed descriptively to identify patterns and trends in the patients' experiences. Results: The patients experienced substantial positive psychedelic effects during the psychedelic sessions without significant adverse effects. The patients reported positive experiences and improvements in their condition. Conclusion: The findings of this study support the feasibility and potential efficacy of psychedelic-assisted therapy in patients undergoing opioid-assisted treatment.Keywords: psychedelics, psychedelic-assisted treatment, opioid use disorder, addiction, LSD, psilocybin
Procedia PDF Downloads 55968 Eating Disorders and Eating Behaviors in Morbid Obese Women with and without Type 2 Diabetes
Authors: Azadeh Mottaghi, Zeynab Shakeri
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Background: Eating disorders (ED) are group of psychological disorders that significantly impair physical health and psychosocial function. EDconsists wide range of morbidity such as loss of eating control, binge eating disorder(BED), night eating syndrome (NES), and bulimia nervosa. Eating behavior is a wide range term that includes food choices, eating patterns, eating problems. In this study, current knowledge will be discussed aboutcomparison of eating disorders and eating behaviors in morbid obese women with and without type 2 diabetes. Methods: 231 womenwith morbid obesity were included in the study.Loss of eating control, Binge eating disorder and Bulimia nervosa, Night eating syndrome, and eating behaviors and psychosocial factorswere assessed. SPSS version 20 was used for statistical analysis. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. Results: There was a significant difference between women with and without diabetes in case of binge eating disorder (76.3% vs. 47.3%, p=0.001). Women with the least Interpersonal support evaluation list (ISEL) scores had a higher risk of eating disorders, and it is more common among diabetics (29.31% vs. 30.45%, p= 0.050). There was no significant difference between depression level and BDI score among women with or without diabetes. Although 38.5% (n=56) of women with diabetes and 50% (n=71) of women without diabetes had minimal depression. The logistic regression model has shown that women without diabetes had lower odds of exhibiting BED (OR=0.28, 95% CI 0.142-0.552).Women with and without diabetes with high school degree (OR=5.54, 95% CI 2.46-9.45, P= 0.0001 & OR=6.52, 95% CI 3.15-10.56, respectively) and moderate depression level (OR=2.03, 95% CI 0.98-3.95 & OR=3.12, 95% CI 2.12-4.56, P= 0.0001) had higher odds of BED. Conclusion: The result of the present study shows that the odds of BED was lower in non-diabetic women with morbid obesity. Women with morbid obesity who had high school degree and moderate depression level had more odds for BED.Keywords: eating disorders binge eating disorder, night eating syndrome, bulimia nervosa, morbid obesity
Procedia PDF Downloads 136967 A Data-Driven Agent Based Model for the Italian Economy
Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio
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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data
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