Search results for: risk disclosure

Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: V. Mathad, S. Shivprasad, P. Shivsharannappa, M. K. Patil

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Introduction: Non-communicable diseases are emerging diseases in India. Government of India launched National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Cancer and Stroke (NPCDCS) during the year 2008. The aim of the programme was to reduce the burden of non communicable diseases by health promotion and prompt treatment. Objective: The present study was intended to assess the impact of National Program for prevention and control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes, Cancer and Stroke Programme on biochemical and physiological factors influencing Type 2 diabetes in Kalaburagi District. Material and Method: NCD Clinic was established at District Hospital during April 2016. All the patients attending District Hospital Kalaburagi above the age of 30 years are screened for Non Communicable Diseases under NPCDCS Programme. A total sample of 7447 patients attending NCD Clinic situated at Kalaburagi district was assessed in this study. Pre structured and pretested schedule seeking information was obtained from all the patients by the counselor working under NPCDCS programme. All the Patients attending District Hospital were screened for Diabetes using Glucometer at NCD clinic. The suspected cases were further confirmed through Biochemical investigations like Fasting Blood glucose, HBA1c, Urine Glucose, Kidney Function test. SPSS 20 version was used for analysis of data. Chi square test, P values and odds ratio was used to study the association of factors. Results: A Total of 7447 patients attended NCD clinic during the year 2017-18 were analyzed, Diabetes was seen among 3028 individuals were as comorbidities along with Hypertension was seen among 757 individuals. The mean age of the population was 50 ± 2.84. 3440(46.2%) were males whereas Female constituted 4007(53.8%) of population. The incidence and prevalence of Diabetes being 8.6 and 12.8 respectively. Diabetes was more commonly seen during the age group of 40 to 69 years. Diabetes was significantly associated with Age group 40 to 69 years, obesity and female gender (p < 0.05). The risk of developing Hypertension and comorbidity conditions of hypertension and Diabetes was 1.224 and 1.305 times higher among males, whereas the risk of diabetes was 1.127 higher among females as compared to males. Conclusion: The screening for NCD has significantly increased after launching of NPCDCS programme. NCD was significantly associated with obesity, female gender, increased age as well as comorbid conditions like hypertension and tuberculosis.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, NPCDCS programme, type 2 Diabetes, physiological factors

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

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Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Delphine Duval, Morgan Mangeas, Charlie Huveneers, Adam Barnett, Laurent Vigliola

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The global number of shark bites has increased over the past four decades with, however, high regional variability both in space and time. A systematic review, aligned with the 2020 PRISMA guidelines, explored the peer-reviewed literature published between 1960 and 2023 to identify factors potentially explaining trends in human-shark interactions. Results revealed that variations in the frequency of human-shark interactions could be explained by a plethora of factors, including changes in prey availability, environmental conditions, human and shark population density and behavior, as well as habitat destruction. However, to our best knowledge, only five studies have conducted statistical assessments of the relative contribution of these factors. The increased number in human-shark interactions and the frequent clusters of shark bites within short timeframes offer opportunities to test the causative factors that may explain trends in unprovoked shark bites. it study aims to evaluate the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) on the number of human-shark interactions, using data from the Global Shark Attack File and the World Database on Protected Areas. Results indicate contrasting effects of MPAs at different spatial scales. Enhancing our understanding of the factors contributing to shark bites is essential for improving risk reduction policies for humans and conservation plans for shark populations.

Keywords: unprovoked shark interactions, marine protected areas, attack risk, human-wildlife interaction

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Authors: Faheem Ur Rehman, Muhammad Khalil Khan, Miao Qing

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This study investigated the asymmetric links and portfolio strategies between green bonds and the markets of three different cryptocurrencies, i.e., green, Islamic, and conventional, using data from January 1, 2018, to April 8, 2022, and employing asymmetric TVP-VAR model to quantify risk spillovers in the network analysis. In addition, we use the minimum variance, minimum correlation, and minimum connectedness methodologies to assess the portfolio implications. The results of the asymmetric dynamic connectedness index (TCI) model show that by adopting cryptocurrencies for digital finance, risk spillovers are found to be reduced. The findings of net directional connectedness demonstrate that during the study period, green bonds consistently get return spillovers from all other network variables. Positive return spillovers are bigger in magnitude than negative ones. These results imply that the influence of the green bond market on the cryptocurrency markets is decreasing. Positive return spillovers generate higher connectedness values for (HG, BNB, and TRX) coins and persistent net recipients in the specific network. On the other hand, Cardano and ADA coins are persistent net transmitters in the system. XLM and MIOTA's responsibilities shift over time, and there is evidence of asymmetry when both positive and negative returns are considered. According to the pairwise portfolio weights, BNB vs. BTC has the largest portfolio weights in the system, followed by BNB vs. Ethereum, suggesting the best investment strategies in the network.

Keywords: asymmetric TVP-VAR, global sustainable index, cryptocurrency, portfolios

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Kirsty Biggs, Peter Larsen-Disney

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Background: The UK cervical screening programme significantly reduces cancer mortality through the early detection of abnormal cells. Despite this, over a quarter of eligible women choose not to attend their appointment. Objective: To qualitatively explore patients’ barriers to attending cervical smear appointments and identify key trends of cervical screening behaviour, knowledge, and attitudes in primary and secondary care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate smear services in Brighton and Hove using questionnaires in general practice and colposcopy. 226 patients participated in the voluntary questionnaire between 10/11/2017 and 02/02/2018. 118 patients were recruited from general practice surgeries and 108 from the colposcopy department. Women were asked about their smear knowledge, self-perceived risks factors, prior experiences and reasons for non-attendance. Demographic data was also collected. Results: Approximately a third of women did not engage in smear testing services. This was consistent across primary and secondary care groups. Over 90% were aware of the role of the screening process in relation to cervical cancer; however, over two thirds believed the smear was also a tool to screen for other pathologies. The most commonly cited reasons for non-attendance were negative emotions or previous experiences. Inconvenient appointment times were also commonly described. In a comparison of attenders versus non-attenders previous negative experiences (p < 0.01) and number of identified risk factors (p = 0.02) were statistically significant with non-attenders describing more prior negative smears and identifying more risk factors. Smear knowledge, risk perception and perceived importance of screening were not significant. Negative previous experiences were described in relation to poor bedside manner, pain, embarrassment and staff competency. Conclusions: In contrary to the literature, our white Caucasian cohort experienced significant barriers to accessing smear services. Women’s prior negative experiences are overriding their perceived importance to attend the screening programme; therefore, efforts need to focus on improving clinical experiences through auditing tools, training and providing a supportive appointment setting. Positive changes can also be expected by improving appointment availabilities with extended hours and self-booking systems.

Keywords: barriers, cervical, Papanicolaou, screening, smear

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Authors: Min Ju Kim, Beom Jin Park, Deuk Jae Sung, Na Yeon Han, Kichoon Sim

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the significant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging factors of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) on the assessment of survival outcomes of neoadjuvant combined chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT) in patients with mid/low rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study of 63 patients with mid/low rectal cancer who underwent MR before and after CRT and patient consent was not required. Surgery performed within 4 weeks after CRT. The location of LPLNs was divided into following four groups; 1) common iliac, 2) external iliac, 3) obturator, and 4) internal iliac lymph nodes. The short and long axis diameters, numbers, shape (ovoid vs round), signal intensity (homogenous vs heterogenous), margin (smooth vs irregular), and diffusion-weighted restriction of LPLN were analyzed on pre- and post-CRT images. For treatment response using size, lymph node groups were defined as group 1) short axis diameter ≤ 5mm on both MR, group 2) > 5mm change into ≤ 5mm after CRT, and group 3) persistent size > 5mm before and after CRT. Clinical findings were also evaluated. The disease-free survival and overall survival rate were evaluated and the risk factors for survival outcomes were analyzed using cox regression analysis. Results: Patients in the group 3 (persistent size >5mm) showed significantly lower survival rates than the group 1 and 2 (Disease-free survival rates of 36.1% and 78.8, 88.8%, p < 0.001). The size response (group 1-3), multiplicity of LPLN, the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), patient’s age, T and N stage, vessel invasion, perineural invasion were significant factors affecting disease-free survival rate or overall survival rate using univariate analysis (p < 0.05). The persistent size (group 3) and multiplicity of LPLN were independent risk factors among MR imaging features influencing disease-free survival rate (HR = 10.087, p < 0.05; HR = 4.808, p < 0.05). Perineural invasion and T stage were shown as independent histologic risk factors (HR = 16.594, p < 0.05; HR = 15.891, p < 0.05). Conclusion: The persistent size greater than 5mm and multiplicity of LPLN on both pre- and post-MR after CRT were significant MR factors affecting survival outcomes in the patients with mid/low rectal cancer.

Keywords: rectal cancer, MRI, lymph node, combined chemoradiotherapy

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Authors: Sandra D. Prewitt

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Introduction—The purpose of the extant study was to explore the relationship between religiosity and suicidal ideation. Through this exploration, further knowledge was sought relevant to gaining a better understanding regarding the higher suicide rate continuing to be experienced by young adults. Endeavoring to discover why the suicide rate continues to increase for the subject population, depression and anxiety emerged as major contributory risk factors. Although religiosity has been shown to be related to the reduced risk of suicidal behavior, the curative value of religion relevant to suicide prevention and treatment has not been sufficiently recognized. Considering the enormity of the current suicide problem, pursuits relevant to discovering effective tools enabling impactful prevention and treatment strategies remain essential to reducing suicide deaths. Methodology—The subject study was conducted utilizing a systematic literature review (SLR) which required the researcher to perform searches of appropriate databases, toward the goal of acquiring advanced knowledge based upon existing studies relevant to the subject matter under consideration. Major Findings—Depression and anxiety have been identified as two potential pathways leading to increased suicidal behavior. On the contrary, religiosity emerged as an important protective factor associated with less depression and therefore, fewer instances of suicidal thoughts. The protective nature of religion has been shown to extend to young adults without regard to the presence of identified potential suicidal behavior pathways.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, religion, suicide

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Authors: Rabeab Khunpukdee, Aranya Sukchoui, Nonluk Somgit, Chitima Bunnaul

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Endotracheal displacement is a major risk of life threatening among critically ill patients. Standard nursing protocol is needed to minimize this risk and to improve clinical outcomes. To evaluate the effectiveness of the endothacheal care nursing guideline. The incidence rates of endochacheal displacement, oxygen deficiency after extubation, re-intubation, and nurse’s satisfaction on the utilization of the endotracheal care nursing guideline. An evidence-based nursing practice framework was used to develop the endotracheal care nursing guideline. The guideline valid content was review by a 3 panel of experts. The index of item objective (IOC) of the guideline was 0.93. The guideline was implemented in 130 patients (guideline group) and 19 registered nurses at a medicine ward, Had Yai hospital, Thailand. Patient’s outcomes were evaluated by comparison with those 155 patients who received the routine nursing care (routine care group). Descriptive statistics, frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and Mann Whitney U-test was analyzed using the computer program. All significantly and better outcomes were found in the guideline group compared to the routine care group. The guideline group has less incidence rates of endotracheal displacement (1.54 % vs 9.03 %, p < 0.05), and none of the guideline group had oxygen deficiency after extubation (0 % vs 83.33%) compared to the routine care group. All of the 2 patients in the guideline group, compared to 6 of 14 patients in the routine care group were re-intubation. The overall rate of re-intubation in the total group (n = 130 vs 155) was seen less in the guideline group than the routine care group (1.54 % vs 3.87). Overall, nurses satisfaction was at high-level (89.50%) on the utilization of the guideline.

Keywords: endotracheal care, nursing guideline, re-intubation, satisfaction

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Authors: Ali Reza Ghanbarnezhad Ghazvini, Seyyed Hamid Reza Mosayyebi

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In recent years, an earthquake has occurred approximately every five years in certain regions of Iran. To mitigate the impact of these seismic events, it is crucial to identify and thoroughly assess the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, ensuring their safety through principled reinforcement. By adopting new methods of risk assessment, we can effectively reduce the potential risks associated with future earthquakes. In our research, we have observed that the coefficient of behavior in the fourth chapter is 1.65 for the initial structure and 1.72 for the Superframe structure. This indicates that the Superframe structure can enhance the strength of the main structural members by approximately 10% through the utilization of super beams. Furthermore, based on the comparative analysis between the two structures conducted in this study, we have successfully designed a stronger structure with minimal changes in the coefficient of behavior. Additionally, this design has allowed for greater energy dissipation during seismic events, further enhancing the structure's resilience to earthquakes. By comprehensively examining and reinforcing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, along with implementing advanced risk assessment techniques, we can significantly reduce casualties and damages caused by earthquakes in Iran. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for civil engineering professionals in the field of structural engineering, aiding them in designing safer and more resilient structures.

Keywords: modal pushover analysis, response modification factor, high-strength concrete, concrete shear walls, high-rise building

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Authors: Torsten Mielitz, Dietmar Schulz, York C. Roth

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Market forecasts show a significant increase in the demand for aircraft within the next two decades and production rates will be adapted accordingly. Improvements and optimizations in the industrial system are becoming more important to cope with future challenges in manufacturing and assembly. Highest quality standards have to be met for aerospace parts, whereas cost effective production in industrial systems and methodologies are also a key driver. A look at other industries like e.g., automotive shows well established processes to streamline existing manufacturing systems. In this paper, the implementation of 'PULL' principles in an existing manufacturing process chain for a large scale composite part is presented. A nonlinear extrapolation based on 'Little's Law' showed a risk of a significant increase of parts needed in the process chain to meet future demand. A project has been set up to mitigate the risk whereas the methodology has been changed from a traditional milestone approach in the beginning towards an agile way of working in the end in order to facilitate immediate benefits in the shop-floor. Finally, delivery rates could be increased avoiding more semi-finished parts in the process chain (work in progress & inventory) by the successful implementation of the 'PULL' philosophy in the shop-floor between the work stations. Lessons learned during the running project as well as implementation and operations phases are discussed in order to share best practices.

Keywords: aerospace composite part manufacturing, PULL principles, shop-floor implementation, lessons learned

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Authors: Sharmin Sultana, Palash Chandra Banik, Shirin Jahan Mumu, Liaquat Ali

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Santals are one of the oldest indigenous groups of South Asia who, according to anthropological evidence, are thought to be the origins of the Bengali race. The aim of the study was to explore, according to our best knowledge for the first time, the prevalence and determinants of hypertension in this relatively isolated and marginalized indigenous group who still live mostly in a traditional style. Under a cross-sectional analytical design, the study was conducted on the adult (age≥18 years) Santals (n=389, M/F 184/205, age in years, 38±15.3) of a village located in a remote rural area of northern Bangladesh. Subjects were selected by purposive sampling, and data were collected by interviewer-administered pretested questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured by following the WHO guideline of JNC-7 has been used to classify the blood pressure. The prevalence of hypertension was 4.9% among the respondents. Females had a much higher prevalence (5.4%) of hypertension compared to males (4.3%). Among the risk indicators of hypertension, more than half (50.9%) of the study population took extra salt in their meals, whereas 10.5% of respondents used extra salt occasionally, which is an important risk factor for high blood pressure. High waist circumference was found in 19% of the study subjects in terms of central obesity. Older age group (p=0.003, OR=1.1, 95%CI-1.02-1.10), respondents who completed more than primary school (p=0.038, OR=7.1, CI-1.11, 44.6), overweight and obesity (p=0.004, OR=17.1, CI-2.5, 118.1), were the major determinant for hypertension as found from the binary logistic model. None of the respondents received any medication, neither they visit any doctor ever for their hypertension control. The prevalence of hypertension was found to be low but not ignorable. Pre-hypertension in the case of systolic blood pressure needs attention among Santal indigenous population.

Keywords: hypertension, indigenous group, Santals, Bangladesh

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Authors: Sahar El Shair, Laura Greco, William Reay, Murray Cairns

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Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, systematic, inflammatory, autoimmune disease that involves damages to joints and erosions to the associated bones and cartilage, resulting in reduced physical function and disability. RA is a multifactorial disorder influenced by heterogenous genetic and environmental factors. Whilst different medications have proven successful in reducing inflammation associated with RA, they often come with significant side effects and limited efficacy. To address this, the novel pharmagenic enrichment score (PES) algorithm was tested in self-reported RA patients from the UK Biobank (UKBB), which is a cohort of predominantly European ancestry, and identified individuals with a high genetic risk in clinically actionable biological pathways to identify novel opportunities for precision interventions and drug repurposing to treat RA. Methods and materials: Genetic association data for rheumatoid arthritis was derived from publicly available genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics (N=97173). The PES framework exploits competitive gene set enrichment to identify pathways that are associated with RA to explore novel treatment opportunities. This data is then integrated into WebGestalt, Drug Interaction database (DGIdb) and DrugBank databases to identify existing compounds with existing use or potential for repurposed use. The PES for each of these candidates was then profiled in individuals with RA in the UKBB (Ncases = 3,719, Ncontrols = 333,160). Results A total of 209 pathways with known drug targets after multiple testing correction were identified. Several pathways, including interferon gamma signaling and TID pathway (which relates to a chaperone that modulates interferon signaling), were significantly associated with self-reported RA in the UKBB when adjusting for age, sex, assessment centre month and location, RA polygenic risk and 10 principal components. These pathways have a major role in RA pathogenesis, including autoimmune attacks against certain citrullinated proteins, synovial inflammation, and bone loss. Encouragingly, many also relate to the mechanism of action of existing RA medications. The analyses also revealed statistically significant association between RA polygenic scores and self-reported RA with individual PES scorings, highlighting the potential utility of the PES algorithm in uncovering additional genetic insights that could aid in the identification of individuals at risk for RA and provide opportunities for more targeted interventions. Conclusions In this study, pharmacologically annotated genetic risk was explored through the PES framework to overcome inter-individual heterogeneity and enable precision drug repurposing in RA. The results showed a statistically significant association between RA polygenic scores and self-reported RA and individual PES scorings for 3,719 RA patients. Interestingly, several enriched PES pathways were targeted by already approved RA drugs. In addition, the analysis revealed genetically supported drug repurposing opportunities for future treatment of RA with a relatively safe profile.

Keywords: rheumatoid arthritis, precision medicine, drug repurposing, system biology, bioinformatics

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Authors: Edna Gnomblerou

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Given the current scale of corruption epidemic in West African economies, governments are seeking for immediate and effective measures to reduce the likelihood of the plague within the region. Generally, accountants and auditors are expected to help organizations in detecting illegal practices. However, their role in the fight against corruption is sometimes limited due to the collusive nature of corruption. The Denmark anti-corruption model shows that the implementation of additional controls over public accounts and independent efficient audits improve transparency and increase the probability of detection. This study is aimed at reviewing the existing anti-corruption policies of the Economic Commission of West African States (ECOWAS) as to observe the role attributed to accounting, auditing and other managerial practices in their anti-corruption drive. It further discusses the usefulness of accounting and auditing in helping anti-corruption commissions in controlling misconduct and increasing the perception to detect irregularities within public administration. The purpose of this initiative is to identify and assess the relevance of accounting and auditing in curbing corruption. To meet this purpose, the study was designed to answer the questions of whether accounting and auditing processes were included in the reviewed anti-corruption strategies, and if yes, whether they were effective in the detection process. A descriptive research method was adopted in examining the role of accounting and auditing in West African anti-corruption strategies. The analysis reveals that proper recognition of accounting standards and implementation of financial audits are viewed as strategic mechanisms in tackling corruption. Additionally, codes of conduct, whistle-blowing and information disclosure to the public are among the most common managerial practices used throughout anti-corruption policies to effectively and efficiently address the problem. These observations imply that sound anti-corruption strategies cannot ignore the values of including accounting and auditing processes. On one hand, this suggests that governments should employ all resources possible to improve accounting and auditing practices in the management of public sector organizations. On the other hand, governments must ensure that accounting and auditing practices are not limited to the private sector, but when properly implemented constitute crucial mechanisms to control and reduce corrupt incentives in public sector.

Keywords: accounting, anti-corruption strategy, auditing, ECOWAS

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Authors: Nuno M. Pereira

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In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy

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Authors: Muhammad Tahir, Mushtaq Muhammad

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Capital structure is one of the key decisions taken by the financial managers. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing capital structure decision in Oil and Gas industry of Pakistan using secondary data from published annual reports of listed Oil and Gas Companies of Pakistan. This study covers the time-period from 2008-2014. Capital structure can be affected by profitability, firm size, growth opportunities, dividend payout, liquidity, business risk, and ownership structure. Panel data technique with Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model has been used to find the impact of set of explanatory variables on the capital structure using the Stata. OLS regression results suggest that dividend payout, firm size and government ownership have the most significant impact on financial leverage. Dividend payout and government ownership are found to have significant negative association with financial leverage however firm size indicated positive relationship with financial leverage. Other variables having significant link with financial leverage includes growth opportunities, liquidity and business risk. Results reveal significant positive association between growth opportunities and financial leverage whereas liquidity and business risk are negatively correlated with financial leverage. Profitability and managerial ownership exhibited insignificant relationship with financial leverage. This study contributes to existing Managerial Finance literature with certain managerial implications. Academically, this research study describes the factors affecting capital structure decision of Oil and Gas Companies in Pakistan and adds latest empirical evidence to existing financial literature in Pakistan. Researchers have studies capital structure in Pakistan in general and industry at specific, nevertheless still there is limited literature on this issue. This study will be an attempt to fill this gap in the academic literature. This study has practical implication on both firm level and individual investor/ lenders level. Results of this study can be useful for investors/ lenders in making investment and lending decisions. Further, results of this study can be useful for financial managers to frame optimal capital structure keeping in consideration the factors that can affect capital structure decision as revealed by this study. These results will help financial managers to decide whether to issue stock or issue debt for future investment projects.

Keywords: capital structure, multicollinearity, ordinary least square (OLS), panel data

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Roger M. Wall, David G. Proverbs, Yamina Silva, Danny Scipion

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This paper critically reviews the outcomes of a 4 day workshop focused on building resilience to El Niño related Flood Events in northern Perú. The workshop was run jointly by Birmingham City University (BCU) in partnership with Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP) and was hosted by the Universidad de Piura (UDEP). The event took place in August 2018 and was funded by the Newton-Paulet fund administered by the British Council. The workshop was a response to the severe flooding experienced in Piura during the El Niño event of March 2017 which damaged over 100,000 homes and destroyed much local infrastructure including around 100 bridges. El Niño is a recurrent event and there is concern that its frequency and intensity may change in the future as a consequence of climate change. A group of 40 early career researchers and practitioners from the UK and Perú were challenged with working together across disciplines to identify key cross-cutting themes and make recommendations for building resilience to similar future events. Key themes identified on day 1 of the workshop were governance; communities; risk information; river management; urban planning; health; and infrastructure. A field study visit took place on day 2 so that attendees could gain first-hand experience of affected and displaced communities. Each of the themes was then investigated in depth on day 3 by small interdisciplinary teams drawing on their own expertise, local knowledge and the experiences of the previous day’s field trip. Teams were responsible for developing frameworks for analysis of their chosen theme and presenting their findings to the whole group. At this point, teams worked together to develop links between the different themes so that an integrated approach could be developed and presented on day 4. This paper describes the approaches taken by each team and the way in which these were integrated to form an holistic picture of the whole system. The findings highlighted the importance of risk-related information and the need for strong governance structures to enforce planning regulations and development. The structured facilitation approach proved to be very effective and it is recommended that the process be repeated with a broader group of stakeholders from across the region.

Keywords: El Niño, integrated flood risk management, Perú, structured facilitation, systems approach, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Vandna Raghuvanshi, Vikrant Thakur, Anupam Jhobta

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Objective: To design HRCT criterion to forecast the threat of pulmonary tuberculosis. Material and methods: This was a prospective study of 69 patients with clinical suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis. We studied their medical characteristics, numerous separate HRCT-results, and a combination of HRCT findings to foresee the danger for PTB by utilizing univariate and multivariate investigation. Temporary HRCT diagnostic criteria were planned in view of these outcomes to find out the risk of PTB and tested these criteria on our patients. Results: The results of HRCT chest were analyzed, and Rank was given from 1 to 4 according to the HRCT chest findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated. Rank 1: Highly suspected PTB. Rank 2: Probable PTB Rank 3: Nonspecific or difficult to differentiate from other diseases Rank 4: Other suspected diseases • Rank 1 (Highly suspected TB) was present in 22 (31.9%) patients, all of them finally diagnosed to have pulmonary tuberculosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative likelihood ratio for RANK 1 on HRCT chest was 53.6%, 100%, and 0.43, respectively. • Rank 2 (Probable TB) was present in 13 patients, out of which 12 were tubercular, and 1 was non-tubercular. • The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the combination of Rank 1 and Rank 2 was 82.9%, 96.4%, 23.22, and 0.18, respectively. • Rank 3 (Non-specific TB) was present in 25 patients, and out of these, 7 were tubercular, and 18 were non-tubercular. • When all these 3 ranks were considered together, the sensitivity approached 100% however, the specificity reduced to 35.7%. The positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 1.56 and 0, respectively. • Rank 4 (Other specific findings) was given to 9 patients, and all of these were non-tubercular. Conclusion: HRCT is useful in selecting individuals with greater chances of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Keywords: pulmonary, tuberculosis, multivariate, HRCT

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Sara Ataei, Molouk Hadjibabaie, Shirinsadat Badri, Amirhossein Moslehi, Iman Karimzadeh, Ardeshir Ghavamzadeh

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Purpose: To assess the pattern and probable risk factors for moderate and major drug–drug interactions in a referral hematology-oncology ward in Iran. Methods: All patients admitted to hematology–oncology ward of Dr. Shariati Hospital during a 6-month period and received at least two anti-cancer or non-anti-cancer medications simultaneously were included. All being scheduled anti-cancer and non-anti-cancer medications both prescribed and administered during ward stay were considered for drug–drug interaction screening by Lexi-Interact On- Desktop software. Results: One hundred and eighty-five drug–drug interactions with moderate or major severity were detected from 83 patients. Most of drug–drug interactions (69.73 %) were classified as pharmacokinetics. Fluconazole (25.95 %) was the most commonly offending medication in drug–drug interactions. Interaction of sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim with fluconazole was the most common drug–drug interaction (27.27 %). Vincristine with imatinib was the only identified interaction between two anti-cancer agents. The number of administered medications during ward stay was considered as an independent risk factor for developing a drug–drug interaction. Conclusions: Potential moderate or major drug–drug interactions occur frequently in patients with hematological malignancies or related diseases. Performing larger standard studies are required to assess the real clinical and economical effects of drug–drug interactions on patients with hematological and non-hematological malignancies.

Keywords: drug–drug interactions, hematology–oncology ward, hematological malignancies

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Tri Nguyen

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Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) are at heightened risk of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. The purpose of the research is to study FSWs socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics and their HIV/STIs prevalence in Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Vietnam. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 420 direct and indirect FSWs between January and May, 2014 from 2 cities and 6 districts in Ba Ria – Vung Tau were collected using sampling methods. FSWs were interviewed using the structured questionnaire and biological samples were tested for syphilis, gonorrhoea, chlamydia and HIV in the study. A database was constructed and entered using Epidata 3.1 software and analyzed using the SPSS 20.0 statistical package. Results: A total of 420 FSWs participated in the survey, with a median age of 27 years within a range of 18 – 43 years. Education levels were low with 33.1% only completing all seven major indicators. The median age of first sexual intercourse of the FSWs was 18 years. Most (88.8%) of the FSWs had oral sex. A high proportion (82.4 %) of the FSWs had consumed alcohol. Among them, 51.2% of the FSWs have had sex after drunk. Of the 177 FSWs have reported that they have had sex after drunk, almost half of direct FSWs have had unprotected sex. Among the 420 FSWs who participated in the survey, 2.6 % (11/420) were found to be HIV positive. There was a difference in HIV prevalence among direct and indirect FSWs (4.8 % and 1.2%, p= 0,022). Nearly 7 percent of the FSWs were infected with Syphilis. Similarly, the percentage (7.9 %) of the FSWs was found with Gonorrhoea and a doubly higher percentage (16.4%) of them was suffering from Chlamydia. On the aggregate, the percentage of FSWs with any one of the STIs (Gonorrhoea or Chlamydia) was highest 21.4 %. Conclusions: FSWs in Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Vietnam are highly vulnerable to STIs and need to enhance the existing STIs treatment and intervention programs in order to reduce the risk of HIV infections. HIV/STIs health education and a 100% condom use program should be implemented, and sex industry should be regulated by law.

Keywords: sex workers, female sex workers, HIV, STIs

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Mpaphi Major

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Soil erosion is becoming an important aspect of land degradation. Therefore it is of great consideration to note any factor that may escalate the rate of soil erosion in our arable land. There exist 3 main driving forces in soil erosion which are rainfall, wind and land use of which in this project only rainfall and land use will be looked at. With the increase in world population at an alarming rate, the demand for food production is expected to increase which will in turn lead to more land being converted from forests to agricultural use of which very few of it are now fertile. In our country Botswana, the rate of crop production is decreasing due to the wearing away of the fertile top soil and poor arable land management. As a result, some studies on the rate of soil loss and farm management practices should be conducted so that best soil and water conservation practices should be employed and hence reduce the risk of soil loss and increase the rate of crop production and yield. The Soil loss estimation model for Southern Africa (SLEMSA) will be used to estimate the rate of soil loss in some selected arable farms within the Palapye watershed and some field observations will be made to determine the management practices used and their impact on the arable land. Upon observations it have been found that many arable fields have been exposed to soil erosion, of which the affected parts are no longer suitable for any crop production unless the land areas are modified. Improper land practices such as ploughing along the slope and land cultivation practices were observed. As a result farmers need to be educated on best conservation practices that can be used to manage their arable land hence reduced risk of soil erosion and improved crop production.

Keywords: soil and water conservation, soil erosion, SLEMSA, land degradation

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Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: O. Berriche, R. Ben Othmen, H. Sfar, H. Abdesslam, S. Bou Meftah, S. Bhouri, F. Mahjoub, C. Amrouche, H. Jamoussi

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Introduction: Although current evidence emphasizes a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and an inverse association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) concentration and obesity, no studies have been conducted in Tunisian obese. The objectives of our study were to estimate the vitamin D deficiency in obese, identify risk factors for vitamin D deficiency, demonstrating a possible association between vitamin D levels and metabolic parameters. Methods: This was a descriptive study of 100 obese 18-65 year-old. Anthropometric measurements were determined. Fasting blood samples were assessed for the following essays : serum calcium, 25 OH vitamin D, inorganic phosphorus, fasting glucose, HDL, LDL cholesterol and triglyceride. Insulin resistance was evaluated by fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and HOMA-ß. Consumption of foods riche in vitamin D, sunscreen use, wearing protective clothes and exposed surface were assessed through applied questionnaires. Results: The deficit of vitamin D (< 30 ng/ml) among obese was 98,8%. Half of them had a rate < 10ng/ml. Environmental factors involved in vitamin D deficiency are : the veil (p = 0,001), wearing protective clothes (p = 0,04) and the exposed surface (p = 0,011) and dietary factors are represented by the daily caloric intake (p = 0,0001). The percent of fat mass was negatively related to vitamin D levels (p = 0,01) but not with BMI (p = 0,11) or waist circumference (p = 0,88). Similarly, lipid and glucose profile had no link with vitamin D. We found no relationship between Insulin resistance and vitamin D levels. Conclusion: At the end of our study, we have identified a very important vitamin D deficiency among obese. Dosage and systematic supplementation should be applied and for that physician awareness is needed.

Keywords: insulinresistance, risk factors, obesity, vitamin D

Procedia PDF Downloads 654