Search results for: key success paths (KSPs)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2799

Search results for: key success paths (KSPs)

819 An Education Profile for Indonesian Youth Development

Authors: Titia Izzati, Pebri Hastuti, Gusti Ayu Arwati

Abstract:

Based on the program of The Ministry of Youth and Sports of Republic of Indonesia, this study compares the Statistikdata of the educational factors and the number of young people to a survey conducted in the five years, 2009-2013. As a result, significant trends are traced through an era filled with events that deeply affected the lives of young people, such as the peak and the ending of the political issues. Changing values under examination include attitudes toward authority and obligations toward others; social values dealing with attitudes toward the work ethic; marriage, family, and the importance of money in defining the meaning of success; and self-fulfillment. While the largest portion of the sample contains college youth, other people between the ages of 16 and 30 are considered, including high school students, blue collar workers, housewives, and high school dropouts. The report provides an overview and interpretation of the data with the presents the research contrasting the values of the college and non-college youth. In the other hand, the youth education profile data also can be utilized in making arrange the youth development index, especially in educational dimension. In order to the formulation of this youth development index, the basic needs of youth in Indonesia have to be listed as the variables. So that, the indicators of the youth development index are really in accordance withthe actual conditions of Indonesian youth. The indicators are the average number of old-school youth, the rate of youth illiterate people, the numbers of youth who are continuing their studies or who have completed the study in college, the number of youth graduate high school/vocational or college graduates were engaged in the labor fair. The formula for the youth development index is arranged in educational dimension with all actual indicators

Keywords: education, young people, Indonesia, ministry programs, youth index development

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818 Citizen Journalist: A Case Study of Audience Participation in Mainstream TV News Production in India

Authors: Sindhu Manjesh

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This paper examines citizen journalism in India, specifically the inclusion of user-generated content (UGC) by mainstream media, by focusing on the case study of the Citizen Journalist show on CNN-News 18, a national television news broadcaster. It studies the processes of production involved in Citizen Journalist to find out how professional journalists and citizens interact to put together the show in order to help readers understand the relationship between journalists and the public in the evolving media landscape of India, the world’s largest democracy, and a leader in the Global South. Using an in-depth case study approach involving newsroom ethnography, interviews, and an examination of Citizen Journalist content, it studies the implications of audience participation for traditional journalistic routines and values – specifically gatekeeping and objectivity. Citizen Journalist began to much fanfare and promise about including neglected citizen views and voices. Based on evidence gathered, this study, however, argues that claims made by CNN-News18 about democratizing news production through Citizen Journalist were overstated. It made some effort to do this and broadcast a lot of important stories. But overall, in terms of bringing in citizen voices, it did not live up to its initial promise because the show was anchored in traditional journalistic norms and roles and the channel’s economic imperatives. Professional journalists were ironically the producers of 'citizen journalism' in this case. Mainstream media’s authority in defining journalistic work –who says what, where, when, why, and how– remains predominant in India. This has implications for democratic participation in India. The example of Citizen Journalist –the model it followed, its partial success, and many limitations– could well presage outcomes for other news outlets, in India and beyond, which copy its template.

Keywords: citizen journalism, digital journalism, participatory journalism, public sphere

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817 The Ductile Fracture of Armor Steel Targets Subjected to Ballistic Impact and Perforation: Calibration of Four Damage Criteria

Authors: Imen Asma Mbarek, Alexis Rusinek, Etienne Petit, Guy Sutter, Gautier List

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Over the past two decades, the automotive, aerospace and army industries have been paying an increasing attention to Finite Elements (FE) numerical simulations of the fracture process of their structures. Thanks to the numerical simulations, it is nowadays possible to analyze several problems involving costly and dangerous extreme loadings safely and at a reduced cost such as blast or ballistic impact problems. The present paper is concerned with ballistic impact and perforation problems involving ductile fracture of thin armor steel targets. The target fracture process depends usually on various parameters: the projectile nose shape, the target thickness and its mechanical properties as well as the impact conditions (friction, oblique/normal impact...). In this work, the investigations are concerned with the normal impact of a conical head-shaped projectile on thin armor steel targets. The main aim is to establish a comparative study of four fracture criteria that are commonly used in the fracture process simulations of structures subjected to extreme loadings such as ballistic impact and perforation. Usually, the damage initiation results from a complex physical process that occurs at the micromechanical scale. On a macro scale and according to the following fracture models, the variables on which the fracture depends are mainly the stress triaxiality ƞ, the strain rate, temperature T, and eventually the Lode angle parameter Ɵ. The four failure criteria are: the critical strain to failure model, the Johnson-Cook model, the Wierzbicki model and the Modified Hosford-Coulomb model MHC. Using the SEM, the observations of the fracture facies of tension specimen and of armor steel targets impacted at low and high incident velocities show that the fracture of the specimens is a ductile fracture. The failure mode of the targets is petalling with crack propagation and the fracture facies are covered with micro-cavities. The parameters of each ductile fracture model have been identified for three armor steels and the applicability of each criterion was evaluated using experimental investigations coupled to numerical simulations. Two loading paths were investigated in this study, under a wide range of strain rates. Namely, quasi-static and intermediate uniaxial tension and quasi-static and dynamic double shear testing allow covering various values of stress triaxiality ƞ and of the Lode angle parameter Ɵ. All experiments were conducted on three different armor steel specimen under quasi-static strain rates ranging from 10-4 to 10-1 1/s and at three different temperatures ranging from 297K to 500K, allowing drawing the influence of temperature on the fracture process. Intermediate tension testing was coupled to dynamic double shear experiments conducted on the Hopkinson tube device, allowing to spot the effect of high strain rate on the damage evolution and the crack propagation. The aforementioned fracture criteria are implemented into the FE code ABAQUS via VUMAT subroutine and they were coupled to suitable constitutive relations allow having reliable results of ballistic impact problems simulation. The calibration of the four damage criteria as well as a concise evaluation of the applicability of each criterion are detailed in this work.

Keywords: armor steels, ballistic impact, damage criteria, ductile fracture, SEM

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816 Health Information Technology in Developing Countries: A Structured Literature Review with Reference to the Case of Libya

Authors: Haythem A. Nakkas, Philip J. Scott, Jim S. Briggs

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This paper reports a structured literature review of the application of Health Information Technology in developing countries, defined as the World Bank categories Low-income countries, Lower-middle-income, and Upper-middle-income countries. The aim was to identify and classify the various applications of health information technology to assess its current state in developing countries and explore potential areas of research. We offer specific analysis and application of HIT in Libya as one of the developing countries. Method: A structured literature review was conducted using the following online databases: IEEE, Science Direct, PubMed, and Google Scholar. Publication dates were set for 2000-2013. For the PubMed search, publications in English, French, and Arabic were specified. Using a content analysis approach, 159 papers were analyzed and a total number of 26 factors were identified that affect the adoption of health information technology. Results: Of the 2681 retrieved articles, 159 met the inclusion criteria which were carefully analyzed and classified. Conclusion: The implementation of health information technology across developing countries is varied. Whilst it was initially expected financial constraints would have severely limited health information technology implementation, some developing countries like India have nevertheless dominated the literature and taken the lead in conducting scientific research. Comparing the number of studies to the number of countries in each category, we found that Low-income countries and Lower-middle-income had more studies carried out than Upper-middle-income countries. However, whilst IT has been used in various sectors of the economy, the healthcare sector in developing countries is still failing to benefit fully from the potential advantages that IT can offer.

Keywords: developing countries, developed countries, factors, failure, health information technology, implementation, libya, success

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815 A Policy Strategy for Building Energy Data Management in India

Authors: Shravani Itkelwar, Deepak Tewari, Bhaskar Natarajan

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The energy consumption data plays a vital role in energy efficiency policy design, implementation, and impact assessment. Any demand-side energy management intervention's success relies on the availability of accurate, comprehensive, granular, and up-to-date data on energy consumption. The Building sector, including residential and commercial, is one of the largest consumers of energy in India after the Industrial sector. With economic growth and increasing urbanization, the building sector is projected to grow at an unprecedented rate, resulting in a 5.6 times escalation in energy consumption till 2047 compared to 2017. Therefore, energy efficiency interventions will play a vital role in decoupling the floor area growth and associated energy demand, thereby increasing the need for robust data. In India, multiple institutions are involved in the collection and dissemination of data. This paper focuses on energy consumption data management in the building sector in India for both residential and commercial segments. It evaluates the robustness of data available through administrative and survey routes to estimate the key performance indicators and identify critical data gaps for making informed decisions. The paper explores several issues in the data, such as lack of comprehensiveness, non-availability of disaggregated data, the discrepancy in different data sources, inconsistent building categorization, and others. The identified data gaps are justified with appropriate examples. Moreover, the paper prioritizes required data in order of relevance to policymaking and groups it into "available," "easy to get," and "hard to get" categories. The paper concludes with recommendations to address the data gaps by leveraging digital initiatives, strengthening institutional capacity, institutionalizing exclusive building energy surveys, and standardization of building categorization, among others, to strengthen the management of building sector energy consumption data.

Keywords: energy data, energy policy, energy efficiency, buildings

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814 Stronger Together – Micro-Entrepreneurs’ Resilience Development in a Communal Training Space 

Authors: Halonen

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Covid-19 pandemic and the succeeding crises have profoundly shaken the accustomed ways of interaction and thereby challenged the customary engagement patterns among entrepreneurs Consequently, this has led to the experience of lack of collegial interaction for some. Networks and relationships are a crucial factor to strengthening resilience, being especially significant in non-ordinary times. This study aims to shed light on entrepreneurs’ resilience development in and through entrepreneurs’ communal and training space. The context for research is a communal training space in a municipality in Finland of which goal is to help entrepreneurs to experience of peer support and community as part of the "tribe" is strengthened, the entrepreneurs' well-being at work, resilience, ability to change, innovativeness and general life management is strengthened. This communal space is regarded as an example of a physical community of practice (CoP) of entrepreneurs. The research aims to highlight the importance of rediscovering the “new normal” communality as itself but as a key building block of resilience. The initial research questions of the study are: RQ1: What is the role of entrepreneurs’ CoP and communal space in nurturing resilience development among them? RQ2: What positive entrepreneurial outcomes can be achieved through established CoP. The data will be gathered starting from the launch of the communality space in September 2023 onwards. It includes participatory observations of training gatherings, interviews with entrepreneurs and utilizes action research as the method. The author has an active role in participating and facilitating the development. The full paper will be finalized by the fall 2024. The idea of the new normal communality in a CoP among entrepreneurs is to be rediscovered due to its positive impact on entrepreneur’s resilience and business success. The other implications of study can extend to wider entrepreneurial ecosystem and other key stakeholders. Especially emphasizing the potential of communality in CoP for fostering entrepreneurs’ resilience and well-being ensuing business growth, community-driven entrepreneurship development and vitality of the case municipality.

Keywords: resilience, resilience development, communal space, community of practice (CoP)

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813 Standards of Toxicity and Food Security in Brazil

Authors: Ana Luiza Da Gama E Souza

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This article aims to discuss the problem of food insecurity in Brazil in what it refers to contamination of food by chemical substances such as herbicides, pesticides, and other contaminants. The issue will be faced by analyzing, on the one hand, the standards that guide the food system in the world and, on the other hand, human rights indicators whose purpose is to provide an effective monitoring of the State's obligations to guarantee food security, analyzing the implications of the former for the success of the latter. The methodology adopted in this article was bibliographic-documentary and consists of three moments of analysis. The first moment consists in the analysis of the reports of the Commission on Human Rights of the Organization of American States to identify the set of progress indicators developed by the Commission. This analysis will involve the new methodology used to evaluate the efficiency in monitoring food security in Brazil the case of using pesticides in the production of food at levels of toxicity not admitted by the inspection bodies. The second moment consists in evaluating the mechanism for monitoring food security in Brazil, which was initially established by the National Food Security Plan (PLANSAN) for 2012-2015 and improved by the II National Food Security Plan for 2016-2019. Those mechanisms were prepared by the Chamber (CAISAN), and have the function to compare the monitoring proposals with the results presented by CAISAN on the Indicators and Results Report of the National Plan for Food and Nutrition Security 2012-2015. The third moment was intended to understand, analyze and evaluate the standardization process of the agri-food system, especially regarding the level of toxicity standards, that is related to food safety monitoring as a guarantee of pesticide-free food. The results show the dependence between private standards of toxicity and the indicators of food safety that leads to inefficiency on monitoring that mechanism in Brazil.

Keywords: standards, indicators, human rights, food security

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812 Developmental Psycholinguistic Approach to Conversational Skills: A Continuum of the Sensitivity to Gricean Maxims

Authors: Zsuzsanna Schnell, Francesca Ervas

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Background: Our experimental pragmatic study confirms a basic tenet in the Relevance of theoretical views in language philosophy. It draws up a developmental trajectory of the maxims, revealing the cognitive difficulty of their interpretation, their relative place to each other, and the order they may follow in development. A central claim of the present research is that social-cognitive skills play a significant role in inferential meaning construction. Children passing the False Belief Test are significantly more successful in tasks measuring the recognition of the infringement of conversational maxims. Aims and method: We examine preschoolers' conversational and pragmatic competence in view of their mentalization skills. To do so, we use a measure of linguistic tasks containing 5 short scenarios for each Gricean maxim. We measure preschoolers’ ToM performance with a first- and second-order ToM task and compare participants’ ability to recognize the infringement of the Gricean maxims in view of their social cognitive skills. Results: Findings suggest that Theory of Mind has a predictive force of 75% concerning the ability to follow Gricean maxims efficiently. ToM proved to be a significant factor in predicting the group’s performance and success rates in 3 out of 4 maxim infringement recognition tasks: in the Quantity, Relevance and Manner conditions, but not in the Quality trial. Conclusions: Our results confirm that children’s communicative competence in social contexts requires the development of higher-order social-cognitive reasoning. They reveal the cognitive effort needed to recognize the infringement of each maxim, yielding a continuum of their cognitive difficulty and trajectory of development.

Keywords: developmental pragmatics, social cognition, preschoolers, maxim infringement, Gricean pragmatics

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811 Promoting Academic and Social-Emotional Growth of Students with Learning Differences Through Differentiated Instruction

Authors: Jolanta Jonak

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Traditional classrooms are challenging for many students, but especially for students that learn differently due to cognitive makeup, learning preferences, or disability. These students often require different teaching approaches and learning opportunities to benefit from learning. Teachers frequently divert to using one teaching approach, the one that matches their own learning style. For instance, teachers that are auditory learners, likely default to providing auditory learning opportunities. However, if a student is a visual learner, he/she may not fully benefit from that teaching style. Based on research, students and their parents’ feedback, large numbers of students are not provided the type of education and types of supports they need in order to be successful in an academic environment. This eventually leads to not learning at an appropriate rate and ultimately leading to skill deficiencies and deficits. Providing varied learning approaches promote high academic and social-emotional growth of all students and it will prevent inaccurate Special Education referrals. Varied learning opportunities can be delivered for all students by providing Differentiated Instruction (DI). This type of instruction allows each student to learn in the most optimal way regardless of learning preferences and cognitive learning profiles. Using Differentiated Instruction will lead to a high level of student engagement and learning. In addition, experiencing success in the classroom, will contribute to increased social emotional wellbeing. Being cognizant of how teaching approaches impact student's learning, school staff can avoid inaccurate perceptions about the students’ learning abilities, unnecessary referrals for special education evaluations, and inaccurate decisions about the presence of a disability. This presentation will illustrate learning differences due to various factors, how to recognize them, and how to address them through Differentiated Instruction.

Keywords: special education, disability, differences, differentiated instruction, social emotional wellbeing

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810 Ventriculo-Gallbladder Shunt: Case Series and Literature Review

Authors: Sandrieli Afornali, Adriano Keijiro Maeda, Renato Fedatto Beraldo, Carlos Alberto Mattozo, Ricardo Nascimento Brito

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BACKGROUND: The most used variety in hydrocephalus treatment is the ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS). However, it may fails in 20 to 70% of cases. It makes necessary to have alternative cavities for the implantation of the distal catheter. Ventriculo-atrial shunting (VAS) is described as the second option. To our knowledge, there are 121 reported cases of VGB shunt in children until 2020 and a highly variable success rate, from 25 to 100%, with an average of 63% of patients presenting good long-term results. Our goal is to evaluate the epidemiological profile of patients submitted to ventriculo-gallbladder (VGB) shunt and, through a review of literature, to compare our results with others series. METHODS: a retrospective cross-sectional observational study of a case series of nine patients. The medical records of all patients were reviewed, who underwent VGB shunt at the Hospital Pequeno Príncipe from Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil, from January 2014 to October 2022. The inclusion criteria were: patients under 17 years of age with hydrocephalus of any etiology, currently using or prior to VGB shunt. RESULTS: There were 6 (66,7%) male and 3 (33,3%) female. The average age of 73.6 months or 6.1 years at the time of surgery. They were submitted on average 5.1 VPS reviews previous to VGB shunt. Five (55,5%) had complications of VGB shunt: infection (11.1%), atony (11.1%), hypodrainage due to kinking the distal catheter in the solution (11.1%) and ventriculoenteric fistula (22.2%); all these patients were cured at surgical reapproach, and in 2 of them the VGB shunt was reimplanted. Two patients died (22.2%), and five (55,5%) patients maintained the use of VGB shunt in the follow-up period; and in 4 (44.4%) there was never need for review. CONCLUSION: VGB shunt tends to be underestimated because it is still unconventional and little publicized in literature. Our article shows a lower risk of death and similar risk of complications when compared to others altenatives shunts. We emphasize VGB shunt as a safe procedure to be the second option when VPS fails or has contraindications.

Keywords: hydrocephalus, ventricular-gallbladder shunt, VGB shunt, VPS, ventriculoperitoneal shunt, ventriculoatrial shunt

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809 Manganese Contamination Exacerbates Reproductive Stress in a Suicidally-Breeding Marsupial

Authors: Ami Fadhillah Amir Abdul Nasir, Amanda C. Niehaus, Skye F. Cameron, Frank A. Von Hippel, John Postlethwait​, Robbie S. Wilson

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For suicidal breeders, the physiological stresses and energetic costs of breeding are fatal. Environmental stressors such as pollution should compound these costs, yet suicidal breeding is so rare among mammals that this is unknown. Here, we explored the consequences of metal contamination to the health, aging and performance of endangered, suicidally-breeding northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus) living near an active manganese mine on Groote Eylandt, Northern Territory, Australia. We found respirable manganese dust at levels exceeding international recommendations even 20km from mining sites and substantial accumulation of manganese within quolls’ hair, testes, and in two brain regions—the neocortex and cerebellum, responsible for sensory perception and motor function, respectively. Though quolls did not differ in sprint speeds, motor skill, or manoeuvrability, those with higher accumulation of manganese crashed at lower speeds during manoeuvrability tests, indicating a potential effect on sight or cognition. Immune function and telomere length declined over the breeding season, as expected with ageing, but manganese contamination exacerbated immune declines and suppressed cortisol. Unexpectedly, male quolls with higher levels of manganese had longer telomeres, supporting evidence of unusual telomere dynamics among Dasyurids—though whether this affects their lifespan is unknown. We posit that sublethal contamination via pollution, mining, or urbanisation imposes physiological costs on wildlife that may diminish reproductive success or survival.

Keywords: ecotoxicology, heavy metal, manganese, telomere length, cortisol, locomotor

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808 Development and Evaluation of Virtual Basketball Game Using Motion Capture Technology

Authors: Shunsuke Aoki, Taku Ri, Tatsuya Yamazaki

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These days, along with the development of e-sports, video games as a competitive sport is attracting attention. But, in many cases, action in the screen does not match the real motion of operation. Inclusiveness of player motion is needed to increase reality and excitement for sports games. Therefore, in this study, the authors propose a method to recognize player motion by using the motion capture technology and develop a virtual basketball game. The virtual basketball game consists of a screen with nine targets, players, depth sensors, and no ball. The players pretend a two-handed basketball shot without a ball aiming at one of the nine targets on the screen. Time-series data of three-dimensional coordinates of player joints are captured by the depth sensor. 20 joints data are measured for each player to estimate the shooting motion in real-time. The trajectory of the thrown virtual ball is calculated based on the time-series data and hitting on the target is judged as success or failure. The virtual basketball game can be played by 2 to 4 players as a competitive game among the players. The developed game was exhibited to the public for evaluation on the authors' university open campus days. 339 visitors participated in the exhibition and enjoyed the virtual basketball game over the two days. A questionnaire survey on the developed game was conducted for the visitors who experienced the game. As a result of the survey, about 97.3% of the players found the game interesting regardless of whether they had experienced actual basketball before or not. In addition, it is found that women are easy to comfort for shooting motion. The virtual game with motion capture technology has the potential to become a universal entertainment between e-sports and actual sports.

Keywords: basketball, motion capture, questionnaire survey, video ga

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807 Exploring Determinants of Farmers` Perceptions of Domestic Compost Production in Urban Agriculture

Authors: Chethika Gunasiri Wadumestrige Dona, Geetha Mohan, Kensuke Fukushi

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Solid waste in urban areas, especially from organic materials like garden waste, food, and degradable sources, can create health and environmental problems if not managed properly. Urban agriculture has emerged as a potential solution in developing countries to mitigate these issues. It offers the possibility of low-carbon economies and knowledge and innovation dissemination. Domestic composting is a significant aspect of urban agriculture, and its success relies on the attitudes of those who practice it. This study examines the perspectives of 402 urban farmers in the Colombo District, Sri Lanka, regarding domestic compost production. It aims to identify the factors that influence these perspectives. The research found that urban farmers are willing to participate in domestic composting because they believe that it facilitates effective recycling of organic waste within their households. The study used an ordinal regression model to determine the factors that shape farmers' perspectives. Age, family size, and crop preferences are significant determinants of the adoption of domestic composting practices among urban farmers in the Colombo District. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing farmers' attitudes in designing effective waste management strategies. In addition, the study also emphasizes the need for tailored interventions that align with farmers' beliefs and preferences to enhance the adoption and implementation of domestic composting practices in urban areas. The insights gained from this study contribute to the academic discourse and offer practical guidance for policymakers and urban planners seeking to promote sustainable waste management practices and support the adoption of urban agriculture in the broader context of urban development.

Keywords: urban agriculture, domestic composting, farmers` perspectives, sustainable urban development

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806 Assessment of Student Attitudes to Higher Education Service Measures: The Development of a Framework for Private Higher Education Institutions in Malaysia

Authors: Farrah Anne Robert, Robert McClelland, Seng Kiat Kok

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Higher education service quality is widely regarded as key factors in the long term success of a higher education institution in attracting and retaining students. This research attempted to establish the impact of service quality on recruiting and retaining students in private higher education institutions (PHEI’s). 501 local and international students responded to a 49 item educational service measure questionnaire from PHEIs in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, two states in Malaysia which together account for 60% of private colleges in Malaysia. Results from this research revealed that, inter-alia, facilities, employability, management and administration services, academic staff competence, curriculum and student overall experiences were key driving factors in attracting and retaining students. Lack of “campus-like building” facilities and lecturer’s effectiveness in delivering lectures were keys concerns in the provision of service quality by PHEI’s in Malaysia. Over the last decade, the Government of Malaysia has set a target of recruiting 200,000 international students to study in Malaysia by PHEI’s and PHEI’s have failed to achieve this target. This research suggests that service quality issues identified above are impacting efforts to recruit and retain both local and international students by PHEIs. The researcher recommends that further and detailed research be carried on these factors and its impact on recruitment and retention. PHEI administrators can benefit from this research by conducting an evaluation of service measures delivered in their institutions and take corrective measures. Prospective students can benefit from this study by including in their choice factors the “service quality delivery” of PHEI’s when deciding to enroll in a particular PHEI.

Keywords: higher education, recruitment, retention, service quality

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805 The Effect of Pregabalin on Postoperative Pain after Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review of Randomized Clinical Trials

Authors: Emad Kouhestani

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Background: Despite the enormous success of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, acute neuropathic pain can develop postoperatively and is both distressing and difficult to treat once established. Pregabalin, as an anticonvulsant agent that selectively affects the nociceptive process, has been used as a pain relief agent. The purpose of this systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was to evaluate the pain control effect of pregabalin versus placebo after ACL reconstruction. Method: A search of the literature was performed from inception to June 2022, using PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Cochrane, and EBSCO. Studies considered for inclusion were RCTs that reported relevant outcomes (postoperative pain scores, or cumulative opioid consumption, adverse events) following the administration of pregabalin in patients undergoing ACL reconstruction. Result: Five placebo-controlled RCTs involving 272 participants met the inclusion criteria. 75 mg and 150 mg of oral pregabalin were used in included trials. Two studies used a single dose of pregabalin one hour before anesthesia induction. Two studies used pregabalin 1 hour before anesthesia induction and 12 hours after. One study used daily pregabalin 7 days before and 7 days after surgery. Out of five papers, three papers found significantly lower pain intensity and cumulative opioid consumption in the pregabalin group compared with the placebo group. However, a decrease in pain scores was found in all trials. Pregabalin administration was associated with dizziness and nausea. Conclusion: The use of pregabalin may be a valuable asset in pain management after ACL reconstruction. However, future studies with larger sample sizes and longer follow-up periods are required.

Keywords: pregabalin, anterior cruciate ligament, postoperative pain, clinical trial

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804 Rapid Degradation of High-Concentration Methylene Blue in the Combined System of Plasma-Enhanced Photocatalysis Using TiO₂-Carbon

Authors: Teguh Endah Saraswati, Kusumandari Kusumandari, Candra Purnawan, Annisa Dinan Ghaisani, Aufara Mahayum

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The present study aims to investigate the degradation of methylene blue (MB) using TiO₂-carbon (TiO₂-C) photocatalyst combined with dielectric discharge (DBD) plasma. The carbon materials used in the photocatalyst were activated carbon and graphite. The thin layer of TiO₂-C photocatalyst was prepared by ball milling method which was then deposited on the plastic sheet. The characteristic of TiO₂-C thin layer was analyzed using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy, and UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectrophotometer. The XRD diffractogram patterns of TiO₂-G thin layer in various weight compositions of 50:1, 50:3, and 50:5 show the 2θ peaks found around 25° and 27° are the main characteristic of TiO₂ and carbon. SEM analysis shows spherical and regular morphology of the photocatalyst. Analysis using UV-Vis diffuse reflectance shows TiO₂-C has narrower band gap energy. The DBD plasma reactor was generated using two electrodes of Cu tape connected with stainless steel mesh and Fe wire separated by a glass dielectric insulator, supplied by a high voltage 5 kV with an air flow rate of 1 L/min. The optimization of the weight composition of TiO₂-C thin layer was studied based on the highest reduction of the MB concentration achieved, examined by UV-Vis spectrophotometer. The changes in pH values and color of MB indicated the success of MB degradation. Moreover, the degradation efficiency of MB was also studied in various higher concentrations of 50, 100, 200, 300 ppm treated for 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 min. The degradation efficiency of MB treated in combination system of photocatalysis and DBD plasma reached more than 99% in 6 min, in which the greater concentration of methylene blue dye, the lower degradation rate of methylene blue dye would be achieved.

Keywords: activated carbon, DBD plasma, graphite, methylene blue, photocatalysis

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803 Comparison of Various Landfill Ground Improvement Techniques for Redevelopment of Closed Landfills to Cater Transport Infrastructure

Authors: Michael D. Vinod, Hadi Khabbaz

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Construction of infrastructure above or adjacent to landfills is becoming more common to capitalize on the limited space available within urban areas. However, development above landfills is a challenging task due to large voids, the presence of organic matter, heterogeneous nature of waste and ambiguity surrounding landfill settlement prediction. Prior to construction of infrastructure above landfills, ground improvement techniques are being employed to improve the geotechnical properties of landfill material. Although the ground improvement techniques have little impact on long term biodegradation and creep related landfill settlement, they have shown some notable short term success with a variety of techniques, including methods for verifying the level of effectiveness of ground improvement techniques. This paper provides geotechnical and landfill engineers a guideline for selection of landfill ground improvement techniques and their suitability to project-specific sites. Ground improvement methods assessed and compared in this paper include concrete injected columns (CIC), dynamic compaction, rapid impact compaction (RIC), preloading, high energy impact compaction (HEIC), vibro compaction, vibro replacement, chemical stabilization and the inclusion of geosynthetics such as geocells. For each ground improvement technique a summary of the existing theory, benefits, limitations, suitable modern ground improvement monitoring methods, the applicability of ground improvement techniques for landfills and supporting case studies are provided. The authors highlight the importance of implementing cost-effective monitoring techniques to allow observation and necessary remediation of the subsidence effects associated with long term landfill settlement. These ground improvement techniques are primarily for the purpose of construction above closed landfills to cater for transport infrastructure loading.

Keywords: closed landfills, ground improvement, monitoring, settlement, transport infrastructure

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802 The Effect of Principled Human Resource Management and Training Based on Existing Standards in Order to Improve the Quality of Construction Projects

Authors: Arsalan Salahi

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Today, the number of changes in the construction industry and urban mass house building is increasing, which makes you need to pay more attention to targeted planning for human resource management and training. The human resources working in the construction industry have various problems and deficiencies, and in order to solve these problems, there is a need for basic management and training of these people in order to lower the construction costs and increase the quality of the projects, especially in mass house building projects. The success of any project in reaching short and long-term professional goals depends on the efficient combination of work tools, financial resources, raw materials, and most importantly, human resources. Today, due to the complexity and diversity of each project, specialized management fields have emerged to maximize the potential benefits of each component of that project. Human power is known as the most important resource in construction projects for its successful implementation, but unfortunately, due to the low cost of human power compared to other resources, such as materials and machinery, little attention is paid to it. With the correct management and training of human resources, which depends on its correct planning and development, it is possible to improve the performance of construction projects. In this article, the training and motivation of construction industry workers and their effects on the effectiveness of projects in this industry have been researched. In this regard, some barriers to the training and motivation of construction workers and personnel have been identified and solutions have been provided for construction companies. Also, the impact of workers and unskilled people on the efficiency of construction projects is investigated. The results of the above research show that by increasing the use of correct and basic training for human resources, we will see positive results and effects on the performance of construction projects.

Keywords: human resources, construction industry, principled training, skilled and unskilled workers

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801 Survival and Retention of the Probiotic Properties of Bacillus sp. Strains under Marine Stress Starvation Conditions and Their Potential Use as a Probiotic for Aquaculture Objectives

Authors: Abdelkarim Mahdhi, Fdhila Kais, Faouzi Lamari, Zeineb Hmila, Fathi Kamoun, Maria Ángeles Esteban, Amina Bakhrouf

Abstract:

Aquaculture is the world’s fastest growing food-production sector. However, one of the most serious problems regarding the culture of marine fishes is the mortality associated with pathogenic bacteria that occurs in the critical phases of larval development. Conventional approaches, such as the use of antimicrobial drugs to control diseases, have had limited success in the prevention or cure of aquatic diseases. Promising alternatives to antibiotics are probiotics, which are food supplements consisting of live microorganisms that benefit the host organism. In the search for more effective and environmentally friendly treatments with probionts against pathogenic species in shrimp larval culture, the probiotic properties of Bacillus strains isolated from Artemia culture such as antibacterial activity, adhesion, pathogenicity, toxicity and the effect of marine stress on viability and survival were investigated, as well as the changes occurring in their properties. Analyses showed that these bacteria corresponded to the genus Bacillus sp. Antagonism and adherence assays revealed that these strains have an inhibitory effect against pathogenic bacteria in vitro and in vivo conditions and are fairly adherent. Challenge tests performed with Artemia larvae provided evidence that the tested Bacillus strains were neither pathogenic nor toxic to the host. The tested strains maintained their viability and their probiotic properties during the period of study. The results suggest that the tested strains have suffered changes allowing them to survive in seawater in the absence of nutrients and outside their natural host, identifying them as potential probiotic candidates for Artemia culture.

Keywords: bacillus, probiotic, cell viability, stress response

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800 Chemically Modified Chitosan Derivatives with Ameliorated Properties Appropriate for Drug Delivery

Authors: Georgia M. Michailidou, Nina-Maria S. Ainali, Eleftheria C. Xanthopoulou, Dimitrios N. Bikiaris

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Polysaccharides are polymeric materials derived from nature. They are extensively used in pharmaceutical technology due to their low cost, their ready availability and their low toxicity. Chitosan is the product derived from the deacetylation of chitin usually obtained from arthropods. It is a linear polysaccharide which is composed of repeated units of N-deacetylated amino groups and some N-acetylated groups residues. Due to its excellent biological properties, it is an attractive natural polymer. It is biocompatible with low toxicity and complete biodegradability. Although it has excellent properties, the chemical modification of its structure results in new derivatives with ameliorated and more improved properties compared to the initial polymer. This is the exact purpose of the present study in which chitosan was modified with three different monomers, namely trans-aconitic acid, succinic anhydride and 2-hydroxyethyl acrylate. In chitosan’s modification with trans aconitic acid, EDC was utilized as an activator of the carboxylic groups of the monomer, and then a coupling reaction with the amino groups took place. Succinic anhydride reacted with chitosan through a ring opening reaction while 2-hydroxyethyl acrylate reacted through the addition of chitosan’s amino group to the double bond of the monomer. Through FTIR and NMR measurements the success of each reaction was confirmed, and the new structures of the derivatives were verified. X-ray diffraction was utilized in order to examine the effect of the modifications in chitosan’s crystallinity. Finally, swelling tests were conducted in order to assess the improved ability of the new polymeric materials to absorb water. Our results support the successful modification of chitosan’s macromolecular chains in all three reactions. Furthermore, the new derivatives appear to be amorphous concerning their crystallinity and have great ability in absorbing water.

Keywords: chitosan, derivatives, modification, polysaccharide

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799 Strategic Alliances and Creative Synergy within European Union: A Theoretical Perspective

Authors: Maha Tichetti, Barzi Redouane, Selim Kanat

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In the European Union (EU), where economic, political, and cultural ties converge, strategic alliances play a pivotal role in shaping the collaborative landscape. This paper embarks on a journey into the EuroSphere, offering a comprehensive analysis review that unravels the dynamics of these alliances within the European context. The focus is specifically directed towards understanding their profound impact on creative synergy and innovation among teams. In our analysis, we provide theoretical explanations for key terms such as "creative synergy" and "strategic alliances." We outline various types of competitive strategies, delve into the motivations prompting the formation of strategic alliances, and critically examine the success and failure factors in these kinds of collaboration. Additionally, we explore the goals achievable through strategic alliances, especially in the context of external growth. A central focus of this paper focus on how strategic alliances can significantly impact creative synergy within the European landscape. Through a theoretical lens, we explore the interplay between collaborative strategies and the enhancement of creative thinking within teams engaged in strategic alliances. The article goes beyond theoretical frameworks to present a tangible example of a strategic alliance emerging in the European market. This case study illuminates how such alliances have empowered European companies to enhance their competitive positions on the global stage while concurrently fostering creative synergy among their teams. This comprehensive review not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of strategic alliances and creative synergy but also offers practical insights for businesses navigating the collaborative landscape within the EuroSphere. As we unravel the complexities of these alliances, we uncover valuable lessons and opportunities for future research, providing a roadmap for those seeking to harness the full potential of strategic collaborations in the dynamic European context.

Keywords: European Union, strategic alliances, creative synergy, competitiveness

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798 Motivation and Attitudes toward Learning English and German as Foreign Languages among Sudanese University Students

Authors: A. Ishag, E. Witruk, C. Altmayer

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Motivation and attitudes are considered as hypothetical psychological constructs in explaining the process of second language learning. Gardner (1985) – who first systematically investigated the motivational factors in second language acquisition – found that L2 achievement is related not only to the individual learner’s linguistic aptitude or general intelligence but also to the learner’s motivation and interest in learning the target language. Traditionally language learning motivation can be divided into two types: integrative motivation – the desire to integrate oneself with the target culture; and instrumental motivation – the desire to learn a language in order to meet a specific language requirement such as for employment. One of the Gardner’s main ideas is that the integrative motivation plays an important role in second language acquisition. It is directly and positively related to second language achievement more than instrumental motivation. However, the significance of integrative motivation reflects a rather controversial set of findings. On the other hand, Students’ attitudes towards the target language, its speakers and the learning context may all play some part in explaining their success in learning a language. Accordingly, the present study aims at exploring the significance of motivational and attitudinal factors in learning foreign languages, namely English and German among Sudanese undergraduate students from a psycholinguistic and interdisciplinary perspective. The sample composed of 221 students from the English and German language departments respectively at the University of Khartoum in Sudan. The results indicate that English language’s learners are instrumentally motivated and that German language’s learners have positive attitudes towards the German language community and culture. Furthermore, there are statistical significant differences in the attitudes toward the two languages due to gender; where female students have more positive attitudes than their male counterparts. However, there are no differences along the variables of academic grade and study level. Finally, the reasons of studying the English or German language have also been indicated.

Keywords: motivation and attitudes, foreign language learning, english language, german language

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797 Online Language Tandem: Focusing on Intercultural Communication Competence and Non-Verbal Cues

Authors: Amira Benabdelkader

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Communication presents the channel by which humankind create and maintain their relationship with others, express themselves, exchange information, learn and teach etc. The context of communication plays a distinctive role in deciding about the language to be used. The term context is mainly used to refer to the interlocutors, their cultures, languages, relationship, physical surrounding that is the communication setting, type of the information to be transmitted, the topic etc. Cultures, on one hand, impose on humans certain behaviours, attitudes, gestures and beliefs. On the other hand, the focus on language is inevitable as it is with its verbal and non-verbal components, a key tool in and for communication. Moreover, each language has its particularity in how people voice, address and express their thoughts, feelings and beliefs. Being in the same setting with people from different cultures and languages and having conversations with them would call upon the intercultural communicative competence. This latter would promote the success of their conversations. Additionally, this competence could manifest in several ways during their interactions, to the extent that no one can predict when and how the interlocutors would use it. The only thing probably that could be confirmed is that the setting and culture would in a way or another intervene and often shape the flow of their communication, if not the whole communication. Therefore, this paper will look at the intercultural communicative competence of language learners when introducing their cultures to each other in an online language tandem (henceforth OLT) using their second and/or foreign language with the L1 language speakers. The participants of this study are Algerian (use L2: French, FL: English), British (L1: English, L2/FL: French). In other words, this current paper will provide a qualitative analysis of the OLT experiment by emphasising how language learners can overcome the cultural differences in an intercultural setting while communicating online using Skype (video conversations) with people from different countries, cultures and L1. The non-verbal cues will have the lion share in the analysis by focusing on how they have been used to maintain this intercultural communication or hinder it through the misinterpretation of gestures, head movements, grimaces etc.

Keywords: intercultural communicative competence, non-verbal cues, online language tandem, Skype

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796 A Framework on Data and Remote Sensing for Humanitarian Logistics

Authors: Vishnu Nagendra, Marten Van Der Veen, Stefania Giodini

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Effective humanitarian logistics operations are a cornerstone in the success of disaster relief operations. However, for effectiveness, they need to be demand driven and supported by adequate data for prioritization. Without this data operations are carried out in an ad hoc manner and eventually become chaotic. The current availability of geospatial data helps in creating models for predictive damage and vulnerability assessment, which can be of great advantage to logisticians to gain an understanding on the nature and extent of the disaster damage. This translates into actionable information on the demand for relief goods, the state of the transport infrastructure and subsequently the priority areas for relief delivery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of disasters, the accuracy in the models need improvement which can be done using remote sensing data from UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) or satellite imagery, which again come with certain limitations. This research addresses the need for a framework to combine data from different sources to support humanitarian logistic operations and prediction models. The focus is on developing a workflow to combine data from satellites and UAVs post a disaster strike. A three-step approach is followed: first, the data requirements for logistics activities are made explicit, which is done by carrying out semi-structured interviews with on field logistics workers. Second, the limitations in current data collection tools are analyzed to develop workaround solutions by following a systems design approach. Third, the data requirements and the developed workaround solutions are fit together towards a coherent workflow. The outcome of this research will provide a new method for logisticians to have immediately accurate and reliable data to support data-driven decision making.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicles, damage prediction models, remote sensing, data driven decision making

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795 An Inclusion Project for Deaf Children into a Northern Italy Contest

Authors: G. Tamanza, A. Bossoni

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84 deaf students (from primary school to college) and their families participated in this inclusion project in cooperation with numerous institutions in northern Italy (Brescia-Lombardy). Participants were either congenitally deaf or their deafness was related to other pathologies. This research promoted the integration of deaf students as they pass from primary school to high school to college. Learning methods and processes were studied that focused on encour­aging individual autonomy and socialization. The research team and its collaborators included school teachers, speech ther­apists, psychologists and home tutors, as well as teaching assistants, child neuropsychiatrists and other external authorities involved with deaf persons social inclusion programs. Deaf children and their families were supported, in terms of inclusion, and were made aware of the research team that focused on the Bisogni Educativi Speciali (BES or Special Educational Needs) (L.170/2010 - DM 5669/2011). This project included a diagnostic and evaluative phase as well as an operational one. Results demonstrated that deaf children were highly satisfied and confident; academic performance improved and collaboration in school increased. Deaf children felt that they had access to high school and college. Empowerment for the families of deaf children in terms of networking among local services that deal with the deaf also improved while family satisfaction also improved. We found that teachers and those who gave support to deaf children increased their professional skills. Achieving autonomy, instrumental, communicative and relational abilities were also found to be crucial. Project success was determined by temporal continuity, clear theoretical methodology, strong alliance for the project direction and a resilient team response.

Keywords: autonomy, inclusion, skills, well-being

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794 Green Housing Projects in Egypt: A Futuristic Approach

Authors: Shimaa Mahmoud Ali Ahmed, Boshra Tawfek El-Shreef

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Sustainable development has become an important concern worldwide, and climate change has become a global threat. Some of these affect how we approach environmental issues — and how we should approach them. Environmental aspects have an important impact on the built environment, that’s why knowledge about Green Building and Green Construction become a vital dimension of urban sustainable development to face the challenges of climate change. There are several levels of green buildings, from energy-efficient lighting to 100% eco-friendly construction; the concept of green buildings in Egypt is still a rare occurrence, with the concept being relatively new to the market. There are several projects on the ground that currently employing sustainable and green solutions to some extent, some of them achieve a limit of success and others fail to employ the new solutions. The market and the cost as well, are great factors. From the last century, green architecture and environmental sustainability become a famous trend that all the researchers like to follow. Nowadays, the trend towards green has shifted to housing and real estate projects. While the environmental aspects are the key to achieve green buildings, the economic benefits, and the market forces are considered as big challenges. The paper assumes that some appropriate environmental treatments could be added to the applied prototype of the governmental social housing projects in Egypt to achieve better environmental solutions. The aim of the research is to get housing projects in Egypt closer to the track of sustainable and green buildings, through making a local future proposal to be integrated into the current policies. The proposed model is based upon adding some appropriate, cheap environmental modifications to the prototype of the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure, and New Urban Communities. The research is based on an analytical, comparative analytical, and inductive approach to study and analyze the housing projects in Egypt and the possibilities of integrating green techniques into it.

Keywords: green buildings, urban sustainability, housing projects, sustainable development goals, Egypt 2030

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793 Coconut Based Sustainable Agri-Silvicultural System: Success Story from Sri Lanka

Authors: Thavananthan Sivananthawerl

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Coconut palm is existing for more than 2000 years in Sri Lanka. However, cultivation on a large scale (plantation) began only in the 19th century. Due to different light perceptions during the growth stages of palm, there is a huge potential to grow crops in-between rows of coconut plants which are grown with wider, fixed spacing. Intercropping under coconut will have multiple benefits such as increasing soil fertility, increasing sunlight utilization, increasing total crop productivity, increasing income & profit, maximum use of resources, reducing the risk, and increasing food security. Growing potential annual, agricultural intercrops could be classified as ‘agri-silvicultural’ system. This is the best agri-silvicultural system that can be named under any perennial crop system in Sri Lanka. In the late 1970’s cassava, pepper and cacao are the major intercrops under the coconut plantations. At the early ages of the palm (<5 years) light-loving crops such as pineapple, passion, papaya, and cassava are recommended and preferred by the cultivators. In between 5-20 years of age, the availability of light is very low, and therefore shade tolerant/loving crops (pasture, yam, ginger) could be used as the intercrops. However, after 20 years of age (>20 years) canopy is getting small, and the light availability on the ground increases. So, light demanding crops such as pepper, banana, pineapple, betel, cassava, and seasonal crops could be grown successfully. Even though this is a sustainable system in several aspects, there are potential challenges ahead to the system. The major ones are land fragmentation and infrastructure development. The other factors are drought, lack of financial support, price instability of the intercrops, availability of improved planting materials, and development of dwarf varieties which reduces the light.

Keywords: coconut cultivation, agri-silviculture, intercrop, sunlight, annuals, sustainability

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792 Design of a Technology Transfer Scheme for the Aeronautical Sector in Alentejo-Andalusia

Authors: J. Munuzuri, L. Onieva, J. Guadix, P. Cortes

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The aeronautical sector represents the main source of industrial development in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, with the establishment of key players like Embraer in Alentejo or Airbus in Andalusia. Subsequently, the economic promotion policies implemented in both neighbouring regions seek to consolidate a trans-border aeronautical cluster to gain critical mass and seek synergies between companies and research centres. The first step of the proposed scheme entails the identification of common interests shared by companies, technological centres and university research groups in both regions. This involves determining the specific type of activities carried out at the different companies established in the two regions (ranging from OEMs to SMEs) and also building a catalogue of available infrastructures and skills on the side of research centres and universities. The results of this first step reveal potential one-to-one partnerships, and also highlight the aggregate strengths and needs of the two regions within the aeronautical sector, taking into account both the current scenario and its expected evolution. The second step of the scheme focuses on the particularly relevant companies identified in the first step, and consists of the completion of in-depth technological audits liable to suggest potential development actions or R&D projects in those companies, counting when possible on the capabilities shown by other members of the cluster. These technological audits follow a three-round process aimed at identifying specific needs, validating those identifications and suggesting possible actions to be taken. The final objective of this methodology is to enhance the economic activity in the aeronautical sector in both regions, always with an innovative perspective. The success of the scheme should be measured in terms of partnerships created, R&D projects initiated, and spin-off companies generated.

Keywords: aeronautical sector, technological audits, technology transfer, trans-border cluster

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791 A Suggestive Framework for Measuring the Effectiveness of Social Media: An Irish Tourism Study

Authors: Colm Barcoe, Garvan Whelan

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Over the past five years, visitations of American holidaymakers to Ireland have grown exponentially owing to the online strategies of Tourism Ireland, a Destination Marketer (DMO) with a meagre budget which is extended by their understanding of best practices to maximise their monetary allowance. This suggested framework incorporates a range of Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) such as financial, marketing, and operational that offer a scale of measurement from which the Irish DMO can monitor the success of each promotional campaign when targeting the US and Canada. These are presented not as final solutions but rather as suggestions based on empirical evidence obtained from both primary and secondary sources. This research combines the wisdom extracted through qualitative methodologies with the objective of understanding the processes that drive both emergent and agile strategies. The Study extends the work relative to performance and examines the role of social media in the context of promoting Ireland to North America. There are two main themes that are identified and analysed in this investigation, these are the approach of the DMO when advocating Ireland as a brand and the benefits of digital platforms set against a proposed scale of KPIs, such as destination marketing, brand positioning, and identity development. The key narrative of this analysis is to focus on the power of social media when capitalising upon marketing opportunities, operating on a relatively small budget. This will always be a relevant theme of discussion due to the responsibility of an organisation like Tourism Ireland operating under the restraints imposed by government funding. The overall conclusions of this research may help inform those concerned with the implementing of social media strategies develop clearer models of measurement when promoting a destination to North America. The suggestions of this study will benefit small and medium enterprises particularly.

Keywords: destination marketing, framework, measure, performance

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790 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 177