Search results for: financial ratio
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7305

Search results for: financial ratio

5325 Graphical Theoretical Construction of Discrete time Share Price Paths from Matroid

Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

Abstract:

The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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5324 Leadership and Entrepreneurship in Higher Education: Fostering Innovation and Sustainability

Authors: Naziema Begum Jappie

Abstract:

Leadership and entrepreneurship in higher education have become critical components in navigating the evolving landscape of academia in the 21st century. This abstract explores the multifaceted relationship between leadership and entrepreneurship within the realm of higher education, emphasizing their roles in fostering innovation and sustainability. Higher education institutions, often characterized as slow-moving and resistant to change, are facing unprecedented challenges. Globalization, rapid technological advancements, changing student demographics, and financial constraints necessitate a reimagining of traditional models. Leadership in higher education must embrace entrepreneurial thinking to effectively address these challenges. Entrepreneurship in higher education involves cultivating a culture of innovation, risk-taking, and adaptability. Visionary leaders who promote entrepreneurship within their institutions empower faculty and staff to think creatively, seek new opportunities, and engage with external partners. These entrepreneurial efforts lead to the development of novel programs, research initiatives, and sustainable revenue streams. Innovation in curriculum and pedagogy is a central aspect of leadership and entrepreneurship in higher education. Forward-thinking leaders encourage faculty to experiment with teaching methods and technology, fostering a dynamic learning environment that prepares students for an ever-changing job market. Entrepreneurial leadership also facilitates the creation of interdisciplinary programs that address emerging fields and societal challenges. Collaboration is key to entrepreneurship in higher education. Leaders must establish partnerships with industry, government, and non-profit organizations to enhance research opportunities, secure funding, and provide real-world experiences for students. Entrepreneurial leaders leverage their institutions' resources to build networks that extend beyond campus boundaries, strengthening their positions in the global knowledge economy. Financial sustainability is a pressing concern for higher education institutions. Entrepreneurial leadership involves diversifying revenue streams through innovative fundraising campaigns, partnerships, and alternative educational models. Leaders who embrace entrepreneurship are better equipped to navigate budget constraints and ensure the long-term viability of their institutions. In conclusion, leadership and entrepreneurship are intertwined elements essential to the continued relevance and success of higher education institutions. Visionary leaders who champion entrepreneurship foster innovation, enhance the student experience, and secure the financial future of their institutions. As academia continues to evolve, leadership and entrepreneurship will remain indispensable tools in shaping the future of higher education. This abstract underscores the importance of these concepts and their potential to drive positive change within the higher education landscape.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, higher education, innovation, leadership

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5323 Alumina Supported Copper-Manganese Catalysts for Combustion of Exhaust Gases: Effect of Preparation Method

Authors: Krasimir Ivanov, Elitsa Kolentsova, Dimitar Dimitrov

Abstract:

The development of active and stable catalysts without noble metals for low temperature oxidation of exhaust gases remains a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of the preparation method on the catalytic activity of the supported copper-manganese mixed oxides in terms of VOCs oxidation. The catalysts were prepared by impregnation of γ-Al2O3 with copper and manganese nitrates and acetates and the possibilities for CO, CH3OH and dimethyl ether (DME) oxidation were evaluated using continuous flow equipment with a four-channel isothermal stainless steel reactor. Effect of the support, Cu/Mn mole ratio, heat treatment of the precursor and active component loading were investigated. Highly active alumina supported Cu-Mn catalysts for CO and VOCs oxidation were synthesized. The effect of preparation conditions on the activity behavior of the catalysts was discussed. The synergetic interaction between copper and manganese species increases the activity for complete oxidation over mixed catalysts. Type of support, calcination temperature and active component loading along with catalyst composition are important factors, determining catalytic activity. Cu/Mn molar ratio of 1:5, heat treatment at 450oC and 20 % active component loading are the best compromise for production of active catalyst for simultaneous combustion of CO, CH3OH and DME.

Keywords: copper-manganese catalysts, CO, VOCs oxidation, exhaust gases

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5322 Geo-Engineering Properties of Lime Stabilized Expansive Soil with Shredded Waste Tyre

Authors: Upasana Pattnaik, Akshaya Kumar Sabat

Abstract:

The compaction properties, unconfined compressive strength (UCS), soaked California bearing ratio (CBR), hydraulic conductivity, and swelling pressure of lime stabilized expansive soil-shredded waste tyre mixes have been discussed in this paper. Shredded waste tyres, passing 4.75 mm Indian Standard (IS) sieve and retained on 75µ IS sieve have been used in the experimental programme. First of all expansive soil-shredded waste tyre mixes were prepared by adding shredded waste tyre from 0 to 20% at an increment of 5%.Standard Proctor compaction, UCS and soaked CBR tests were conducted on these mixes. The optimum percentage of shredded waste tyre found out was 10%.In the second phase of the experiment, lime was added to sample having optimum percentage of expansive soil and shredded waste tyre from 2 to 6% at an increment of 1%.Compaction, UCS, soaked CBR, hydraulic conductivity, and swelling pressure tests were conducted on lime stabilized expansive soil-shredded waste tyre mixes. The optimum percentage of lime for stabilization was found out to be 5%.At the optimum percentage of lime the stabilized expansive soil-shredded waste tyre mix had increased strength, reduced hydraulic conductivity and swelling pressure.

Keywords: expansive soil, hydraulic conductivity, lime, shredded waste tyre, soaked california bearing ratio

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5321 Characterising the Performance Benefits of a 1/7-Scale Morphing Rotor Blade

Authors: Mars Burke, Alvin Gatto

Abstract:

Rotary-wing aircraft serve as indispensable components in the advancement of aviation, valued for their ability to operate in diverse and challenging environments without the need for conventional runways. This versatility makes them ideal for applications like environmental conservation, precision agriculture, emergency medical support, and rapid-response operations in rugged terrains. However, although highly maneuverable, rotary-wing platforms generally have lower aerodynamic efficiency than fixed-wing aircraft. This study takes the view of improving aerodynamic performance by examining a 1/7th scale rotor blade model with a NACA0012 airfoil using CROTOR software. The analysis focuses on optimal spanwise locations for separating morphing and fixed blade sections at 85%, 90%, and 95% of the blade radius (r/R) with up to +20 degrees of twist incorporated to the design.. Key performance metrics assessed include lift coefficient (CL), drag coefficient (CD), lift-to-drag ratio (CL / CD), Mach number, power, thrust coefficient, and Figure of Merit (FOM). Results indicate that the 0.90 r/R position is optimal for dividing the morphing and fixed sections, achieving a significant improvement of over 7% in both lift-to-drag ratio and FOM. These findings underscoring the substantial impact on overall performance of the rotor system and rotational aerodynamics that geometric modifications through the inclusion of a morphing capability can ultimately realise.

Keywords: rotary morphing, rotational aerodynamics, rotorcraft morphing, rotor blade, twist morphing

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5320 Preparation and Characterization of Titania-Coated Glass Fibrous Filters Using Aqueous Peroxotitanium Acid Solution

Authors: Ueda Honoka, Yasuo Hasegawa, Fumihiro Nishimura, Jae-Ho Kim, Susumu Yonezawa

Abstract:

Aqueous peroxotitanium acid solution prepared from the TiO₂ fluorinated by F₂ gas was used for the TiO₂ coating on glass fibrous filters in this study. The coating of TiO₂ on the surface of glass fibers was carried out at 120℃ and for 15 min ~ 24 h with aqueous peroxotitanium acid solution using a hydrothermal synthesis autoclave reactor. The morphology TiO₂ coating layer was largely dependent on the reaction time, as shown in the results of scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Increasing the reaction times, the TiO₂ layer on the glass expanded uniformly. Moreover, the surface fluorination of glass fibers can promote the formation of the TiO₂ layer on the surface. The photocatalytic activity of prepared titania-coated glass fibrous filters was investigated by both the degradation test of methylene blue (MB) and the decomposition test of gaseous acetaldehyde. The MB decomposition ratio with fluorinated samples was about 95% for 30 min of UV irradiation time, and it was much higher than that (70%) with the untreated thing. The decomposition ratio (50%) of gaseous acetaldehyde with fluorinated samples was also higher than that (30%) with the untreated thing. Consequently, photocatalytic activity is enhanced by surface fluorination.

Keywords: aqueous peroxotitanium acid solution, titania-coated glass fibrous filters, photocatalytic activity, surface fluorination

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5319 Correlation between Overweightness and the Extent of Coronary Atherosclerosis among the South Caspian Population

Authors: Maryam Nabati, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ehsan Soroosh, Hanieh Shiraj, Mahnaneh Gholami, Ali Ghaemian

Abstract:

Background: Reported effects of obesity on the extent of angiographic coronary artery disease(CAD) have beeninconsistent. The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between the indices of obesity and otheranthropometric markers with the extent of CAD. Methods: This study was conducted on 1008 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography. Bodymass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) wereseparately calculated for each patient. Extent, severity, and complexity of CAD were determined by the Gensini andSYNTAX scores. Results: According to the results, there was a significant inverse correlation between the SYNTAX score with BMI(r = − 0.110; P < 0.001), WC (r = − 0.074; P = 0.018), and WHtR (r = − 0.089; P = 0.005). Furthermore, a significant inversecorrelation was observed between the Gensini score with BMI (r = − 0.090; P = 0.004) and WHtR (r = − 0.065; P =0.041). However, the results of multivariate linear regression analysis did not show any association between theSYNTAX and Gensini scores with the indices of obesity and overweight. On the other hand, the patients with anunhealthy WC had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) (P = 0.004) and hypertension (HTN) (P < 0.001) compared to the patients with healthy values. Coexistence of HTN and DM was more prevalent in subjects with anunhealthy WC and WHR compared to that in those with healthy values (P = 0.002 and P = 0.032, respectively). Conclusion: It seems that the anthropometric indices of obesity are not the predictors of the angiographic severityof CAD. However, they are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors and higher risk profile.

Keywords: body mass index, BMI, coronary artery disease, waist circumference

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5318 Experimental Investigation to Produce an Optimum Mix Ratio of Micro-Concrete

Authors: Shofiq Ahmed, Rakibul Hassan, Raquib Ahsan

Abstract:

Concrete is one of the basic elements of RCC structure and also the most crucial one. In recent years, a lot of researches have been conducted to develop special types of concrete for special purposes. Micro-concrete is one of them which has high compressive strength and is mainly used for retrofitting. Micro-concrete is a cementitious based composition formulated for use in repairs of areas where the concrete is damaged & the area is confined in movement making the placement of conventional concrete difficult. According to recent statistics, a large number of structures in the major cities of Bangladesh are vulnerable to collapse. Retrofitting may thus be required for a sustainable solution, and for this purpose, the utilization of micro-concrete can be considered as the most effective solution. For that reason, the aim of this study was to produce micro-concrete using indigenous materials in low cost. Following this aim, the experimental data were observed for five mix ratios with varied amount of cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate, water, and admixture. The investigation criteria were a compressive strength, tensile strength, slump and the cost of different mix ratios. Finally, for a mix ratio of 1:1:1.5, the compressive strength was achieved as 7820 psi indicating highest strength among all the samples with the reasonable tensile strength of 1215 psi. The slump of 6.9 inches was also found for this specimen indicating it’s high flowability and making it’s convenient to use as micro-concrete. Moreover, comparing with the cost of foreign products of micro-concrete, it was observed that foreign products were almost four to five times costlier than this local product.

Keywords: indigenous, micro-concrete, retrofitting, vulnerable

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5317 Denoising Transient Electromagnetic Data

Authors: Lingerew Nebere Kassie, Ping-Yu Chang, Hsin-Hua Huang, , Chaw-Son Chen

Abstract:

Transient electromagnetic (TEM) data plays a crucial role in hydrogeological and environmental applications, providing valuable insights into geological structures and resistivity variations. However, the presence of noise often hinders the interpretation and reliability of these data. Our study addresses this issue by utilizing a FASTSNAP system for the TEM survey, which operates at different modes (low, medium, and high) with continuous adjustments to discretization, gain, and current. We employ a denoising approach that processes the raw data obtained from each acquisition mode to improve signal quality and enhance data reliability. We use a signal-averaging technique for each mode, increasing the signal-to-noise ratio. Additionally, we utilize wavelet transform to suppress noise further while preserving the integrity of the underlying signals. This approach significantly improves the data quality, notably suppressing severe noise at late times. The resulting denoised data exhibits a substantially improved signal-to-noise ratio, leading to increased accuracy in parameter estimation. By effectively denoising TEM data, our study contributes to a more reliable interpretation and analysis of underground structures. Moreover, the proposed denoising approach can be seamlessly integrated into existing ground-based TEM data processing workflows, facilitating the extraction of meaningful information from noisy measurements and enhancing the overall quality and reliability of the acquired data.

Keywords: data quality, signal averaging, transient electromagnetic, wavelet transform

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5316 Impact of Sovereign Debt Risk and Corrective Austerity Measures on Private Sector Borrowing Cost in Euro Zone

Authors: Syed Noaman Shah

Abstract:

The current paper evaluates the effect of external public debt risk on the borrowing cost of private non-financial firms in euro zone. Further, the study also treats the impact of austerity measures on syndicated-loan spreads of private firm followed by euro area member states to revive the economic growth in the region. To test these hypotheses, we follow multivariate ordinary least square estimation method to assess the effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firms. By using foreign syndicated-loan issuance data of non-financial private firms from 2005 to 2011, we attempt to gauge how the private financing cost varies with high levels of sovereign external debt prevalent in the euro zone. Our results suggest significant effect of external public debt on the borrowing cost of private firm. In particular, an increase in external public debt by one standard deviation from its sample mean raises syndicated-loan spread by 89 bps. Furthermore, weak creditor rights protection prevalent in member states deepens this effect. However, we do not find any significant effect of domestic public debt on the private sector borrowing cost. In addition, the results show significant effect of austerity measures on private financing cost, both in normal and in crisis period in the euro zone. In particular, one standard deviation change in fiscal consolidation conditional mean reduces the syndicated-loan spread by 22 bps. In turn, it indicates strong presence of credibility channel due to austerity measures in euro area region.

Keywords: corporate debt, fiscal consolidation, sovereign debt, syndicated-loan spread

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5315 Flow Characteristics around Rectangular Obstacles with the Varying Direction of Obstacles

Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40d×80w×80h, 80d×80w×80h, 160d×80w×80h, 80d×40w×80h and 80d×160w×80h in mm3) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80d×80w×80h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD

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5314 The Prognostic Value of Dynamic Changes of Hematological Indices in Oropharyngeal Cancer Patients Treated with Radiotherapy

Authors: Yao Song, Danni Cheng, Jianjun Ren

Abstract:

Objectives: We aimed to explore the prognostic effects of absolute values and dynamic changes of common hematological indices on oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients treated with radiation. Methods and materials: The absolute values of white blood cell (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet (Plt), albumin (Alb), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) at baseline (within 45 days before radiation), 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the start of radiotherapy were retrospectively collected. Locally-estimated smoothing scatterplots were used to describe the smooth trajectory of each index. A mixed-effect model with a random slope was fitted to describe the changing rate and trend of indices over time. Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between hematological indices and treatment outcomes. Results: Of the enrolled 85 OPSCC patients, inflammatory indices, such as WBC and ALC, dropped rapidly during acute treatment and gradually recovered, while NLR and PLR increased at first three months and subsequently declined within 3-12 months. Higher absolute value or increasing trend of nutritional indices (Alb and Hb) was associated with better prognosis (all p<0.05). In contrast, patients with higher absolute value or upward trend of inflammatory indices (WBC, ANC, Plt, PLR and NLR) had worse survival (all p<0.05). Conclusions: The absolute values and dynamic changes of hematological indices were valuable prognostic factors for OPSCC patients who underwent radiotherapy.

Keywords: hematological indices, oropharyngeal cancer, radiotherapy, NLR, PLR

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5313 Full Disclosure Policy: Transparency in Fiscal Administration

Authors: Joyly Jill Apud

Abstract:

Corruption is an all-encompassing issue worldwide. Many attempts have been done to address such cases especially by the government through increasing transparency. The Philippine government increased the mechanism of transparency by opening to public its financial transactions through Full Disclosure Policy – mandating all local governments to post in their websites all financial transactions (Philippine Public Transparency Reporting Project, 2011). For transparency to be fully realized, the challenge lies in creating a mechanism where the constituents are encouraged to engage as social auditors. In line of the said challenge, the study focused in Davao City, Philippines measuring the respondent’s awareness, access and utilization of Full Disclosure Policy (FDP). Particularly, this study determined the significant difference on the awareness, access and utilization of respondents when grouped according to sector and the significant relationship between respondents’ awareness and in the access and utilization of FDP reports. The study used descriptive-correlation, Mean, Anova and Pearson R as statistical treatment. The 120 respondents are from the different sectors of Davao City. These are the Academe, Youth, LGUs, NGOs, Business, and Church groups. The awareness of the respondents was measured in three main categories: Existence of the Policy, Content of the Policy and the Manner of Publication. Access and Utilization of the FDP reports is divided into three: Budget Reports, Procurement Reports and Special Purpose Fund Reports. Results showed that the respondents are moderately aware of the Policy. Though it manifested that the respondents are aware of the disclosure, they are unaware of the Full Disclosure Policy and Full Disclosure Policy Portal. Moreover, the respondents seldom access and utilize all the FDP reports. Further results revealed that there is a significant difference in the awareness and the access and utilization of FDP when grouped according to sector. Moreover, significant relationship in the awareness and the access and utilization of the FDP is evident. It showed that the higher the awareness on FDP, the higher the level of access and utilization on the FDP reports.

Keywords: corruption, e-governance, budget transparency, participation

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5312 Performance of Rapid Impact Compaction as a Middle-Deep Ground Improvement Technique

Authors: Bashar Tarawneh, Yasser Hakam

Abstract:

Rapid Impact Compaction (RIC) is a modern dynamic compaction device mainly used to compact sandy soils, where silt and clay contents are low. The device uses the piling hammer technology to increase the bearing capacity of soils through controlled impacts. The RIC device uses "controlled impact compaction" of the ground using a 9-ton hammer dropped from the height between 0.3 m to 1.2 m onto a 1.5 m diameter steel patent foot. The delivered energy is about 26,487 to 105,948 Joules per drop. To evaluate the performance of this technique, three project sites in the United Arab Emirates were improved using RIC. In those sites, a loose to very loose fine to medium sand was encountered at a depth ranging from 1.0m to 4.0m below the ground level. To evaluate the performance of the RIC, Cone Penetration Tests (CPT) were carried out before and after improvement. Also, load tests were carried out post-RIC work to assess the settlements and bearing capacity. The soil was improved to a depth of about 5.0m below the ground level depending on the CPT friction ratio (the ratio between sleeve friction and tip resistance). CPT tip resistance was significantly increased post ground improvement work. Load tests showed enhancement in the soil bearing capacity and reduction in the potential settlements. This study demonstrates the successful application of the RIC for middle-deep improvement and compaction of the ground. Foundation design criteria were achieved in all site post-RIC work.

Keywords: compaction, RIC, ground improvement, CPT

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5311 To Estimate the Association between Visual Stress and Visual Perceptual Skills

Authors: Vijay Reena Durai, Krithica Srinivasan

Abstract:

Introduction: The two fundamental skills involved in the growth and wellbeing of any child can be categorized into visual motor and perceptual skills. Visual stress is a disorder which is characterized by visual discomfort, blurred vision, misspelling words, skipping lines, letters bunching together. There is a need to understand the deficits in perceptual skills among children with visual stress. Aim: To estimate the association between visual stress and visual perceptual skills Objective: To compare visual perceptual skills of children with and without visual stress Methodology: Children between 8 to 15 years of age participated in this cross-sectional study. All children with monocular visual acuity better than or equal to 6/6 were included. Visual perceptual skills were measured using test for visual perceptual skills (TVPS) tool. Reading speed was measured with the chosen colored overlay using Wilkins reading chart and pattern glare score was estimated using a 3cpd gratings. Visual stress was defined as change in reading speed of greater than or equal to 10% and a pattern glare score of greater than or equal to 4. Results: 252 children participated in this study and the male: female ratio of 3:2. Majority of the children preferred Magenta (28%) and Yellow (25%) colored overlay for reading. There was a significant difference between the two groups (MD=1.24±0.6) (p<0.04, 95% CI 0.01-2.43) only in the sequential memory skills. The prevalence of visual stress in this group was found to be 31% (n=78). Binary logistic regression showed that odds ratio of having poor visual perceptual skills was OR: 2.85 (95% CI 1.08-7.49) among children with visual stress. Conclusion: Children with visual stress are found to have three times poorer visual perceptual skills than children without visual stress.

Keywords: visual stress, visual perceptual skills, colored overlay, pattern glare

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5310 Carbamazepine Co-crystal Screening with Dicarboxylic Acids Co-Crystal Formers

Authors: S. Abd Rahim, F. A. Rahman, E. M. Nasir, N. A. Ramle

Abstract:

Co-crystal is believed to improve the solubility and dissolution rates and thus, enhanced the bioavailability of poor water soluble drugs particularly during the oral route of administration. With the existing of poorly soluble drugs in pharmaceutical industry, the screening of co-crystal formation using carbamazepine (CBZ) as a model drug compound with dicarboxylic acids co-crystal formers (CCF) namely fumaric (FA) and succinic (SA) acids in ethanol has been studied. The co-crystal formations were studied by varying the mol ratio values of CCF to CBZ to access the effect of CCF concentration on the formation of the co-crystal. Solvent evaporation, slurry, and cooling crystallisations which representing the solution based method co-crystal screening were used. The product crystal from the screening was characterized using X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD). The XRPD pattern profile analysis has shown that the CBZ co-crystals with FA and SA were successfully formed for all ratios studied. The findings revealed that CBZ-FA co-crystal were formed in two different polymorphs. It was found that CBZ-FA form A and form B were formed from evaporation and slurry crystallisation methods respectively. On the other hand, in cooling crystallisation method, CBZ-FA form A was formed at lower mol ratio of CCF to CBZ and vice versa. This study disclosed that different methods and mol ratios during the co-crystal screening can affect the outcome of co-crystal produced such as polymorphic forms of co-crystal and thereof. Thus, it was suggested that careful attentions is needed during the screening since the co-crystal formation is currently one of the promising approach to be considered in research and development for pharmaceutical industry to improve the poorly soluble drugs.

Keywords: co-crystal, dicarboxylic acid, carbamazepine, industry

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5309 Effect of Haemophilus Influenzae Type B (HIB) Vaccination on Child Anthropometry in India: Evidence from Young Lives Study

Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

Abstract:

Haemophilus influenzae Type B (Hib) cause infections of pneumonia, meningitis, epiglottises and other invasive disease exclusively among children under age five. Occurrence of these infections may impair child growth by causing micronutrient deficiency. Using longitudinal data from first and second waves of Young Lives Study conducted in India during 2002 and 2006-07 respectively and multivariable logistic regression models (using generalised estimation equation to take into account the cluster nature of sample), this study aims to examine the impact of Hib vaccination on child anthropometric outcomes (stunting, underweight and wasting) in India. Bivariate result shows that, a higher percent of children were stunted and underweight among those who were not vaccinated against Hib (39% & 48% respectively) as compare to those who were vaccinated (31% and 39% respectively).The risk of childhood stunting and underweight was significantly lower among children who were vaccinated against Hib (odds ratio: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62-0.96 and odds ratio: 0.79, 95% C.I: 0.64-0.98 respectively) as compare to the unvaccinated children. No significant association was found between vaccination status against Hib and childhood wasting. Moreover, in the statistical models, about 13% of stunting and 12% of underweight could be attributable to lack of vaccination against Hib in India. Study concludes that vaccination against Hib- in addition to being a major intervention for reducing childhood infectious disease and mortality- can be consider as a potential tool for reducing the burden of undernutrition in India. Therefore, the Government of India must include the vaccine against Hib into the Universal Immunization Programme in India.

Keywords: Haemophilus influenzae Type-B, Stunting, Underweight, Wasting, Young Lives Study (YLS), India

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5308 Numerical Analysis of Supersonic Impinging Jets onto Resonance Tube

Authors: Shinji Sato, M. M. A. Alam, Manabu Takao

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In recent, investigation of an unsteady flow inside the resonance tube have become a strongly motivated research field for their potential application as high-frequency actuators. By generating a shock wave inside the resonance tube, a high temperature and pressure can be achieved inside the tube, and this high temperature can also be used to ignite a jet engine. In the present research, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was carried out to investigate the flow inside the resonance tube. The density-based solver of rhoCentralFoam in OpenFOAM was used to numerically simulate the flow. The supersonic jet that was driven by a cylindrical nozzle with a nominal exit diameter of φd = 20.3 mm impinged onto the resonance tube. The jet pressure ratio was varied between 2.6 and 7.8. The gap s between the nozzle exit and tube entrance was changed between 1.5d and 3.0d. The diameter and length of the tube were taken as D = 1.25d and L=3.0D, respectively. As a result, when a supersonic jet has impinged onto the resonance tube, a compression wave was found generating inside the tube and propagating towards the tube end wall. This wave train resulted in a rise in the end wall gas temperature and pressure. While, in an outflow phase, the gas near tube enwall was found cooling back isentropically to its initial temperature. Thus, the compression waves repeated a reciprocating motion in the tube like a piston, and a fluctuation in the end wall pressures and temperatures were observed. A significant change was found in the end wall pressures and temperatures with a change of jet flow conditions. In this study, the highest temperature was confirmed at a jet pressure ratio of 4.2 and a gap of s=2.0d

Keywords: compressible flow, OpenFOAM, oscillations, a resonance tube, shockwave

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5307 Evolving Credit Scoring Models using Genetic Programming and Language Integrated Query Expression Trees

Authors: Alexandru-Ion Marinescu

Abstract:

There exist a plethora of methods in the scientific literature which tackle the well-established task of credit score evaluation. In its most abstract form, a credit scoring algorithm takes as input several credit applicant properties, such as age, marital status, employment status, loan duration, etc. and must output a binary response variable (i.e. “GOOD” or “BAD”) stating whether the client is susceptible to payment return delays. Data imbalance is a common occurrence among financial institution databases, with the majority being classified as “GOOD” clients (clients that respect the loan return calendar) alongside a small percentage of “BAD” clients. But it is the “BAD” clients we are interested in since accurately predicting their behavior is crucial in preventing unwanted loss for loan providers. We add to this whole context the constraint that the algorithm must yield an actual, tractable mathematical formula, which is friendlier towards financial analysts. To this end, we have turned to genetic algorithms and genetic programming, aiming to evolve actual mathematical expressions using specially tailored mutation and crossover operators. As far as data representation is concerned, we employ a very flexible mechanism – LINQ expression trees, readily available in the C# programming language, enabling us to construct executable pieces of code at runtime. As the title implies, they model trees, with intermediate nodes being operators (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division) or mathematical functions (sin, cos, abs, round, etc.) and leaf nodes storing either constants or variables. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the client properties and the formula variables. The mutation and crossover operators work on a flattened version of the tree, obtained via a pre-order traversal. A consequence of our chosen technique is that we can identify and discard client properties which do not take part in the final score evaluation, effectively acting as a dimensionality reduction scheme. We compare ourselves with state of the art approaches, such as support vector machines, Bayesian networks, and extreme learning machines, to name a few. The data sets we benchmark against amount to a total of 8, of which we mention the well-known Australian credit and German credit data sets, and the performance indicators are the following: percentage correctly classified, area under curve, partial Gini index, H-measure, Brier score and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, respectively. Finally, we obtain encouraging results, which, although placing us in the lower half of the hierarchy, drive us to further refine the algorithm.

Keywords: expression trees, financial credit scoring, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, symbolic evolution

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5306 Bringing the Confidence Intervals into Choropleth Mortality Map: An Example of Tainan, Taiwan

Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

Abstract:

Background: Choropleth mortality map is commonly used to identify areas with higher mortality risk. However, the use of choropleth map alone might result in the misinterpretation of differences in mortality rates between areas. Two areas with different color shades might not actually have a significant difference in mortality rates. The mortality rates estimated for an area with a small population would be less stable. We suggest of bringing the 95% confidence intervals (CI) into the choropleth mortality map to help users interpret the areal mortality rate difference more properly. Method: In the first choropleth mortality map, we used only three color to indicate standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for each district in Tainan, Taiwan. The red color denotes that the SMR of that district was significantly higher than the Tainan average; on the contrary, the green color suggests that the SMR of that district was significantly lower than the Tainan average. The yellow color indicates that the SMR of that district was not statistically significantly different from the Tainan average. In the second choropleth mortality map, we used traditional sequential color scheme (color ramp) for different SMR in 37 districts in Tainan City with bar chart of each SMR with 95% CI in which the users could examine if the line of 95% CI of SMR of two districts overlapped (nonsignificant difference). Results: The all-causes SMR of each district in Tainan for 2008 to 2013 ranged from 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80) in East District to 1.39 Beimen (95% CI 1.25 to 1.52). In the first choropleth mortality map, only 16 of 37 districts had red color and 8 districts had green color. For different causes of death, the number of districts with red color differed. In the first choropleth mortality map we added a bar chart with line of 95% CI of SMR in each district, in which the users could visualize the SMR differences between districts. Conclusion: Through the use of 95% CI the users could interpret the aral mortality differences more properly.

Keywords: choropleth map, small area variation, standardized mortality ratio (SMR), Taiwan

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5305 The Investigation of Niobium Addition on Mechanical Properties of Al11Si alloy

Authors: Kerem Can Dizdar, Semih Ateş, Ozan Güler, Gökhan Basman, Derya Dışpınar, Cevat Fahir Arısoy

Abstract:

Grain refinement and obtaining homogeneous microstructure is the key parameter in casting of aluminum alloys. Ti has been traditionally used as grain refiner, however, inconsistency and heterogeneous dendrite arms, as well as fading efficiency, have been the drawbacks of Ti. Alternatively, Nb (Niobium) has gained attention. In this work, the effect of Nb was investigated in case of both as cast and T6 heat treated conditions. Different ratios of Nb (0.0, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.1 weight%) were added to AlSi11 alloy, mechanical properties were examined statistically, and relationship was established between microstructure and mechanical properties by examining the grain size and dendrite characteristics before and after heat treatment. Results indicate that in the case of as cast state; with the increasing addition of Nb has no significant effect on yield strength, however, it increases the tensile strength and elongation starting with 0.05wt% ratio, and it remains constant up to 0.1wt%. For the heat-treated condition; Nb addition provides increment at yield strength and tensile strength up to 0.05wt%, but it leads to decrementfrom 0.05 to 0.1wt%. The opposite is valid for the elongation; It decreases in between 0-0.05wt% then rises in range of 0.05-0.1wt%. Highest yield strength and ultimate tensile strength were found T6 heat treated 0.05wt% Nb addition. 0.05wt% was found as critical Nbaddition ratio for mechanical properties of Al-11Si alloys. Grain refinement and obtaining homogeneous microstructure is the key parameter in casting of aluminum alloys. Ti has been traditionally used as grain refiner, however, inconsistency and heterogeneous dendrite arms, as well as fading efficiency, have been the drawbacks of Ti. Alternatively, Nb (Niobium) has gained attention. In this work, the effect of Nb was investigated in case of both as cast and T6 heat treated conditions. Different ratios of Nb (0.0, 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.1 weight%) were added to AlSi11 alloy, mechanical properties were examined statistically, and relationship was established between microstructure and mechanical properties by examining the grain size and dendrite characteristics before and after heat treatment. Results indicate that in the case of as cast state; with the increasing addition of Nb has no significant effect on yield strength, however, it increases the tensile strength and elongation starting with 0.05wt% ratio, and it remains constant up to 0.1wt%. For the heat-treated condition; Nb addition provides increment at yield strength and tensile strength up to 0.05wt%, but it leads to decrement from 0.05 to 0.1wt%. The opposite is valid for the elongation; It decreases in between 0-0.05wt% then rises in range of 0.05-0.1wt%. Highest yield strength and ultimate tensile strength were found T6 heat treated 0.05wt% Nb addition. 0.05wt% was found as critical Nbaddition ratio for mechanical properties of Al-11Si alloys.

Keywords: al-si alloy, grain refinement, heat treatment, mechanical properties, microstructure, niobium, sand casting

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5304 The Real Business Power of Virtual Reality: From Concept to Application

Authors: Svetlana Bialkova, Marnix van Gisbergen

Abstract:

Advanced Virtual Reality (VR) technologies offer compelling multisensory and interactive experiences applicable in various fields from education to entertainment. However, serious VR applications within the financial sector are scarce, and managing ‘real’ business services with(in) VR is a challenge inviting further investigation. The current research addresses this challenge, by exploring the key parameters influencing the VR business power and the development of appropriate VR applications in real financial business. We conducted profound investigation of both B2B and B2C needs, and how these could be met. In three studies, we have approached experts from leading international banks (finance to computer specialists), and their (potential) customers. Study 1 included focus group discussions with experts. First, participants could experience different VR devices such as Samsung Gear VR, then a structured discussion was held. The outcomes are analyzed and summarized in a portfolio. Study 2 further used the portfolio analyzer to profile the management of real business services with(in) VR. Again experts participated, where first being introduced with Samsung Gear, then experiencing it and being interviewed. Based on the outcomes, a survey was developed to interview (potential) customers and test ideas created (Study 3). The results suggest that developing proper system architectures to connect people and to connect devices is crucial for building up powerful business with(in) VR. From one side, connecting devices, e.g., pairing mobile Head Mounted Displays for VR with smart-phones and/or wearable technologies would be appropriate way “to have” customers anywhere, anytime with a brand and/or business. Developing VR Apps, providing detailed real time visualization of performance and infrastructure types could enable 3D VR navigation, 3D contents viewing, but also being opportunity for connecting people in collaborative platforms. The outcomes of the current research are summarized in a model which could be applied to unlock the real business power of VR.

Keywords: business power, B2B, B2C, VR applications

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5303 A Multigranular Linguistic ARAS Model in Group Decision Making

Authors: Wiem Daoud Ben Amor, Luis Martínez López, Hela Moalla Frikha

Abstract:

Most of the multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems dealing with qualitative criteria require consideration of the large background of expert information. It is common that experts have different degrees of knowledge for giving their alternative assessments according to criteria. So, it seems logical that they use different evaluation scales to express their judgment, i.e., multi granular linguistic scales. In this context, we propose the extension of the classical additive ratio assessment (ARAS) method to the case of a hierarchical linguistics term for managing multi granular linguistic scales in uncertain contexts where uncertainty is modeled by means in linguistic information. The proposed approach is called the extended hierarchical linguistics-ARAS method (ARAS-ELH). Within the ARAS-ELH approach, the DM can diagnose the results (the ranking of the alternatives) in a decomposed style, i.e., not only at one level of the hierarchy but also at the intermediate ones. Also, the developed approach allows a feedback transformation i.e the collective final results of all experts able to be transformed at any level of the extended linguistic hierarchy that each expert has previously used. Therefore, the ARAS-ELH technique makes it easier for decision-makers to understand the results. Finally, An MCGDM case study is given to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: additive ratio assessment, extended hierarchical linguistic, multi-criteria group decision making problems, multi granular linguistic contexts

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5302 Tandem Concentrated Photovoltaic-Thermoelectric Hybrid System: Feasibility Analysis and Performance Enhancement Through Material Assessment Methodology

Authors: Shuwen Hu, Yuancheng Lou, Dongxu Ji

Abstract:

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation, as one of the most commercialized methods to utilize solar power, can only convert a limited range of solar spectrum into electricity, whereas the majority of the solar energy is dissipated as heat. To address this problem, thermoelectric (TE) module is often integrated with the concentrated PV module for waste heat recovery and regeneration. In this research, a feasibility analysis is conducted for the tandem concentrated photovoltaic-thermoelectric (CPV-TE) hybrid system considering various operational parameters as well as TE material properties. Furthermore, the power output density of the CPV-TE hybrid system is maximized by selecting the optimal TE material with application of a systematic assessment methodology. In the feasibility analysis, CPV-TE is found to be more advantageous than sole CPV system except under high optical concentration ratio with low cold side convective coefficient. It is also shown that the effects of the TE material properties, including Seebeck coefficient, thermal conductivity, and electrical resistivity, on the feasibility of CPV-TE are interacted with each other and might have opposite effect on the system performance under different operational conditions. In addition, the optimal TE material selected by the proposed assessment methodology can improve the system power output density by 227 W/m2 under highly concentrated solar irradiance hence broaden the feasible range of CPV-TE considering optical concentration ratio.

Keywords: feasibility analysis, material assessment methodology, photovoltaic waste heat recovery, tandem photovoltaic-thermoelectric

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5301 Effect of Size, Geometry and Tensile Strength of Fibers on the Flexure of Hooked Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Chuchai Sujivorakul

Abstract:

This research focused on the study of various parameters of fiber itself affecting on the flexure of hooked steel fiber reinforced concrete (HSFRC). The size of HSFRC beams was 150x150 mm in cross section and 550 mm in length, and the flexural test was carried out in accordance with EN-14651 standard. The test result was the relationship between centre-point load and crack-mount opening displacement (CMOD) at the centre notch. Controlled concrete had a compressive strength of 42 MPa. The investigated variables related to the hooked fiber itself were: (a) 3 levels of aspect ratio of fibers (65, 80 and 100); (b) 2 different fiber lengths (35 mm and 60 mm); (c) 2 different tensile strength of fibers (1100 MPa and 1500 MPa); and (d) 3 different fiber-end geometries (3D 4D and 5D fibers). The 3D hooked fibers have two plastic hinges at both ends, while the 4D and 5D hooked fibers are the newly developed steel fibers by Bekaert, and they have three and four plastic hinges at both ends, respectively. The hooked steel fibers were used in concrete with three different fiber contents, i.e., 20 30 and 40 kg/m³. From the study, it was found that all variables did not seem to affect the flexural strength at limit of proportionality (LOP) of HSFRC. However, they affected the residual flexural tensile strength (fR,j). It was observed that an increase in fiber lengths and the tensile strength the fibers would significantly increase in the fR,j of HSFRC, while the aspect ratio of the fiber would slightly effect the fR,j of HSFRC. Moreover, it was found that using 5D fibers would better enhance the fR,j and flexural behavior of HSFRC than 3D and 4D fibers, because they gave highest mechanical anchorage effect created by their hooked-end geometry.

Keywords: hooked steel fibers, fiber reinforced concrete, EN-14651, flexural test

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5300 Recycled Aggregates from Construction and Demolition Waste in the Production of Concrete Blocks

Authors: Juan A. Ferriz-Papi, Simon Thomas

Abstract:

The construction industry generates large amounts of waste, usually mixed, which can be composed of different origin materials, most of them catalogued as non-hazardous. The European Union targets for this waste for 2020 have been already achieved by the UK, but it is mainly developed in downcycling processes (backfilling) whereas upcycling (such as recycle in new concrete batches) still keeps at a low percentage. The aim of this paper is to explore further in the use of recycled aggregates from construction and demolition waste (CDW) in concrete mixes so as to improve upcycling. A review of most recent research and legislation applied in the UK is developed regarding the production of concrete blocks. As a case study, initial tests were developed with a CDW recycled aggregate sample from a CDW plant in Swansea. Composition by visual inspection and sieving tests of two samples were developed and compared to original aggregates. More than 70% was formed by soil waste from excavation, and the rest was a mix of waste from mortar, concrete, and ceramics with small traces of plaster, glass and organic matter. Two concrete mixes were made with 80% replacement of recycled aggregates and different water/cement ratio. Tests were carried out for slump, absorption, density and compression strength. The results were compared to a reference sample and showed a substantial reduction of quality in both mixes. Despite that, the discussion brings to identify different aspects to solve, such as heterogeneity or composition, and analyze them for the successful use of these recycled aggregates in the production of concrete blocks. The conclusions obtained can help increase upcycling processes ratio with mixed CDW as recycled aggregates in concrete mixes.

Keywords: aggregates, concrete, concrete block, construction and demolition waste, recycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
5299 Tracking of Linarin from the Ethyl Acetate Fraction of Melinjo (Gnetum gnemon L.) Seeds Using Preparative High Performance Liquid Chromatography

Authors: Asep Sukohar, Ramadhan Triyandi, Muhammad Iqbal, Sahidin, Suharyani

Abstract:

Introduction: Resveratrol is a class of bioactive chemicals found in melinjo, which has a wide range of biological actions. The purpose of this study is to determine the linarin content of the melinjo fraksi by using preparative-high-performance liquid chromatography (prep-HPLC). Method: Extraction used the soxhletation method with 96% ethanol solvent. Fractionation used ethyl acetate and ethanol in a ratio of 1:1. Tracing of linarin compound used prep-HPLC with a mobile phase ratio of distilled water: methanol (55: 45, v/v). The presence of linarin was detected using a wavelength of 215 nm. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) was used to identify the functional groups of compound. Result: The retention time required to elute the ethyl acetate fraction was 2.601 minutes. Compound separation identification using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy - Quest Attenuated Total Reflectance (FTIR - QATR) has a similarity value range with standards from 0 to 1000. The elution results of the ethyl acetate fraction have similar values with the standard compounds linarin (668), resveratrol (578), and catechin (455). Conclusion: Tracing for active compound in the ethyl acetate fraction of Gnetum Gnemon L. using prep-HPLC showed a strong suspicion of the presence of linarin compound.

Keywords: Gnetum gnemon L., linarin, prep-HPLC, fraction ethyl acetate

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5298 Release Response of Black Spruce and White Spruce Following Overstory Lodgepole Pine Mortality Due to Mountain Pine Beetle Attack

Authors: F. O. Oboite, P. G. Comeau

Abstract:

Advance regeneration is present in many lodgepole pine stands in Alberta. When the overstory pine canopy is killed by Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) the growth of this advance is likely to increase. Understanding the growth response of these understory tree species is needed to improve mid-term timber supply projections and management decisions. To quantify the growth (diameter, height, height/diameter ratio) responses of black spruce and white spruce to lodgepole pine mortality, sample trees of black and white spruce advance regeneration were selected from 7 lodgepole pine dominated stands (5 attacked; 2 control) in the Foothills Region of western Alberta. Measurements were collected 7-8 years after MPB attack across a wide range of spruce height and stand densities. Analysis was done using mixed model linear regression. Result indicates that there was an increase in both diameter and height growth after MPB attack; however, this increase in growth was delayed for about four years. Both spruce species had similar height response and their height/diameter ratio decreased after release, partly as a result of increased understory light associated with loss of needles in the pine canopy. In addition, the diameter and height growth responses of both spruce species were strongly related to density, prerelease growth and initial size.

Keywords: mountain pine beetle, forest regeneration, lodgepole pine, growth response

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5297 Chemometric Determination of the Geographical Origin of Milk Samples in Malaysia

Authors: Shima Behkami, Nor Shahirul Umirah Idris, Sharifuddin Md. Zain, Kah Hin Low, Mehrdad Gholami, Nima A. Behkami, Ahmad Firdaus Kamaruddin

Abstract:

In this work, Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Isotopic Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) and Ultrasound Milko Tester were used to study milk samples obtained from various geographical locations in Malaysia. ICP-MS was used to determine the concentration of trace elements in milk, water and soil samples obtained from seven dairy farms at different geographical locations in peninsular Malaysia. IRMS was used to analyze the milk samples for isotopic ratios of δ13C, 15N and 18O. Nutritional parameters in the milk samples were determined using an ultrasound milko tester. Data obtained from these measurements were evaluated by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Analysis (HA) as a preliminary step in determining geographical origin of these milk samples. It is observed that the isotopic ratios and a number of the nutritional parameters are responsible for the discrimination of the samples. It was also observed that it is possible to determine the geographical origin of these milk samples solely by the isotopic ratios of δ13C, 15N and 18O. The accuracy of the geographical discrimination is demonstrated when several milk samples from a milk factory taken from one of the regions under study were appropriately assigned to the correct PCA cluster.

Keywords: inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy ICP-MS, isotope ratio mass spectroscopy IRMS, ultrasound, principal component analysis, hierarchical analysis, geographical origin, milk

Procedia PDF Downloads 370
5296 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228