Search results for: risk factors

Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Mutshinye Manguvhewa, Maria Florence, Mansoo Yu, Elize Koch, Kamal Kamaloodien

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Substance use among pregnant women is a perennial problem in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. There are many influential factors are associated with substance use among women of childbearing age. The study explored factors associated with substance use among pregnant women using a qualitative research design and the bio-ecological theoretical framework to explore and guide the researcher throughout the study. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Only participants accessed from the Department of Social Development meeting the inclusion criteria of the study were interviewed using semi structured interviews. Immediate referral for psychological intervention during the interview was available for participants who needed it. Braun and Clarke's six phases of thematic analysis were utilised to analyse the data. The study adheres to ethical guidelines for the participants' protection. Participants were informed about the study before the initiation of the interviews and the details of their voluntary participation were explained. The key findings from this study illustrate that socio-cultural factors, personal factors, emotional response and intimate relationships are the major contributing factors to substance use among pregnant women in this sample. The results outline the preventative measures that pregnant women implement. Lastly, the study reveals the positive and negative perceptions of substance use programmes that participants share. Some of the study findings are similar to the existing literature and some of the findings differed. Recommendations emanating from the study include that the stakeholders, rehabilitation centres, Department of Health and future researchers should act proactively against substance use during pregnancy.

Keywords: substance addiction, antenatal care, pregnancy, substance use

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Authors: Xiao Yang, Ji Zhang, Yingli Song, Hui Huang, Jing Zhang, Yan Wang, Rongrong Han, Zhixuan Xiang, Lu Chen, Lingling Gao

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Aim and Objectives: To examine physical activity self-efficacy, identify its predictors, and further explore the mechanism of action among the predictors in mainland Chinese pregnant women with high risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Background: Physical activity could protect pregnant women from developing GDM. Physical activity self-efficacy was the key predictor of physical activity. Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 in Zhengzhou, China. Methods: 252 eligible pregnant women completed the Pregnancy Physical Activity Self-efficacy Scale, the Social Support for Physical Activity Scale, the Knowledge on Physical Activity Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and a socio-demographic data sheet. Multiple linear regression was applied to explore the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling was used to explore the mechanism of action among the predictors. Results: Chinese pregnant women with a high risk for GDM reported a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. The best-fit regression analysis revealed four variables explained 17.5% of the variance in physical activity self-efficacy. Social support for physical activity was the strongest predictor, followed by knowledge of the physical activity, intention to do physical activity, and anxiety symptoms. The model analysis indicated that knowledge of physical activity could release anxiety and depressive symptoms and then increase physical activity self-efficacy. Conclusion: The present study revealed a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. Interventions targeting pregnant women with high risk for GDM need to include the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Relevance to clinical practice: To facilitate pregnant women with high risk for GDM to engage in physical activity, healthcare professionals may find assess physical activity self-efficacy and intervene as soon as possible on their first antenatal visit. Physical activity intervention programs focused on self-efficacy may be conducted in further research.

Keywords: physical activity, gestational diabetes, self-efficacy, predictors

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Authors: Hossein Boromandfar, Ahmad Ghalavandi

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This paper examines the importance of human resources as a strategic resource and the factors that lead to increased Labor productivity in Applied Science Center Andimeshk pay. First, the concepts and definitions of productivity and factors affecting it, and then determine the center Recommendations for improving the productivity of the university at a high level its improvement. What leads to increased productivity of labor is worth. The most competent human resources infrastructure is set, because by moving towards the development and promotion. The use of qualified employees in the university with a focus on specific objectives can be effective on its promotion.

Keywords: productivity, manage, human resources, center for applied science

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

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Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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Authors: Asieh Abbassi Daloii, Ahmad Abdi

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Introduction: Sports information suggests that physical inactivity increases the risk of many diseases, including atherosclerosis. Coronary heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, atherosclerosis and clinical protests. However, exercise can have beneficial effects on risk factors for atherosclerosis by reducing hyperlipidemia, hypertension, obesity, plaque density, increased insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance is improved. Despite these findings, there is little information about the molecular mechanisms of interaction between the body and its relation to sport and there arteriosclerosis. The present study aims to investigate the effect of six weeks of progressive aerobic training and aqueous extract of crataegus monogyna on vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) variations and angiopoetin-1/2 (ANG- 1/2) in plasma and heart tissue in male Wistar rats. Methods: 30 male Wistar rats, 4-6 months old, were randomly divided into four groups: control crataegus monogyna (N=8), training crataegus monogyna (N=8), control saline (N=6), and training saline (N=8). The aerobic training program included running on treadmill at the speed of 34 meters per minute for 60 minutes per day. The training was conducted for six weeks, five days a week. Following each training session, both experimental and control subjects of crataegus monogyna groups were orally fed with 0.5 mg crataegus monogyna extract per gram of the body weight. The normal saline group was given the same amount of the normal saline solution (NS). Eventually, 72 hours after the last training session, blood samples were taken from inferior Verna cava. Conclusion: It is likely that crataegus monogyna extract compared with aerobic training and even combination of both training and crataegus monogyna extract is more effective on angiogenesis.

Keywords: angiopoietin 1, 2, vascular endothelial growth factor, aerobic exercise

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The risk of natural disasters affects all the countries of the world, whether it refers to seismic events or tsunamis or hydrogeological disasters. In most cases, the risk can be considered in its three components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability (and urban vulnerability). The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the Italian scientific community has related the contribution of these three components, superimposing the three different maps that summarize the fundamental structure of the risk. Based on the three components considered, the study applies the Regional Planning methodology on the three phases of the risk protection and mitigation process: the prevention phase, the emergency intervention phase, the post-disaster phase. The paper illustrates the Italian experience of the pre-during-post-earthquake intervention. Main results: The study deepens these aspects in the belief that “a historical center” and an “island” can present similar problems at the international level, both in the phase of prevention (earthquake, tsunamis, hydrogeological disasters), in emergency phase (protocols and procedures of intervention) and in the post-disaster phase. The conclusions of the research identify the need to plan in advance how to deal with the post-disaster phase and consider it a priority with respect to the simple reconstruction of destroyed buildings. In fact the main result of the post-disaster intervention must be the return and the social and economic support of the indigenous population, and not only the construction of new housing and equipment. In this sense, the results of the research show that the elderly inhabitants of a historic center can be compared to the indigenous population of an atoll of fishermen, as both constitute the most important resource: the human resource. Their return in conditions of security testifies, with their presence, the culture, customs, and values rooted in the history of a people.

Keywords: post-disaster interventions, risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad, seismic events in Italy, social and economic protection and support for the native population of historical centers

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Authors: G. Meccariello, L. Della Ragione

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The exposure to outdoor air pollution causes lung cancer and increases the risk of bladder cancer. Because air pollution in urban areas is mainly caused by transportation, it is necessary to evaluate pollutant exhaust emissions from vehicles during their real-world use. Nevertheless their evaluation and reduction is a key problem, especially in the cities, that account for more than 50% of world population. A particular attention was given to the slope variability along the streets during each journey performed by the instrumented vehicle. In this paper we dealt with the problem of describing a quantitatively approach for the reconstruction of GPS coordinates and altitude, in the context of correlation study between driving cycles / emission / geographical location, during an experimental campaign realized with some instrumented cars. Finally the slope analysis can be correlated to the emission and consumption values in a specific road position, and it could be evaluated its influence on their behaviour.

Keywords: air pollution, driving cycles, GPS signal, slope, emission factor, fuel consumption

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kľoc, Z. Tomková, E. Petrejčíková, S. Mačeková, J. Poráčová, M. M. Blaščáková

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Osteoporosis is a common multifactorial disease with a strong genetic component characterized by reduced bone mass and increased risk of fractures. Genetic factors play an important role in the pathogenesis of osteoporosis. The aim of our study was to identify the genotype and allele distribution of T245G polymorphism in OPG gene in Slovak postmenopausal women. A total of 200 unrelated Slovak postmenopausal women with diagnosed osteoporosis and 200 normal controls were genotyped for T245G (rs3134069) polymorphism of OPG gene. Genotyping was performed using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Genotypes and alleles frequencies showed no significant differences (p=0.5551; p=0.6022). The results of the present study confirm the importance of T245G polymorphism in OPG gene in the pathogenesis of osteoporosis.

Keywords: OPG gene, T245G polymorphism, osteoporosis, T245G polymorphism, real-time PCR

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Authors: Eteri Kharaishvili

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Introduction. The paper analyzes the main indicators of export and import of Georgian agri-food products; identifies positive and negative trends under the pandemic; based on the revealed problemssubstantiates the need formodernization ofin agri-food sector. It is argued that low production and productivity rates of food products negatively impact achieving the optimal export-to-import ratio; therefore, it leads toincreaseddependence on other countries andreduces the level of food security. Research objectives. The objective of the research is to identify the key challenges based on the analysis of export-import indicators of Georgian food products during the pandemic period and develop recommendations on the possibilities of post-pandemic perspectives. Research methods. Various theoretical and methodological research tools are used in the paper; in particular, a desk research is carried out on the research topic; endogenous and exogenous variables affecting export and import are determined through factor analysis; SWOT and PESTEL analysis are used to identify development opportunities; selection and groupingof data, identification of similarities and differences is carried outby using analysis, synthesis, sampling, induction and other methods; a qualitative study is conducted based on a survey of agri-food experts and exporters for clarifying the factors that impede export-import flows. Contributions. The factors that impede the export of Georgian agri-food products in the short run under COVID-19 pandemic are identified. These are: reduced income of farmers, delays in the supply of raw materials and supplies to the agri-food sectorfrom the neighboring industries, as well as in harvesting, processing, marketing, transportation, and other sectors; increased indirect costs, etc. The factors that impede the export in the long run areas follows loss of public confidence in the industry, risk of losing positions in traditional markets, etc. Conclusions are made on the problems in the field of export and import of Georgian agri-food products in terms of the pandemic; development opportunities are evaluated based on the analysis of the agri-food sector potential. Recommendations on the development opportunities for export and import of Georgian agri-food products in the post-pandemic period are proposed.

Keywords: agri-food products, export, and import, pandemic period, hindering factor, development potential

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Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

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Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, quallitative analysis

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Authors: Norbert W. Paul

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In 1988, parts of the scientific community still heralded findings to support that AIDS was likely to remain largely a ‘gay disease’. The value-ladden terminology of some of the articles suggested that rectum and fragile urethra are not sufficiently robust to provide a barrier against infectious fluids, especially body fluids contaminated with HIV while the female vagina, would provide natural protection against injuries and trauma facilitating HIV-infection. Anal sexual intercourse was constituted not only as dangerous but also as unnatural practice, while penile-vaginal intercourse would follow natural design and thus be relatively safe practice minimizing the risk of HIV. Statements like the latter were not uncommon in the early times of HIV/AIDS and contributed to captious certainties and an underestimation of heterosexual risks. Pseudo-scientific discourses on the origin of HIV were linked to local and global health politics in the 1980ies. The pathways of infection were related to normative concepts like deviant, subcultural behavior, cultural otherness, and guilt used to target, tag and separate specific groups at risk from the ‘normal’ population. Controlling populations at risk became the top item on the agenda rather than controlling modes of transmission and the virus. Hence, the Thai strategy to cope with HIV/AIDS by acknowledging social and sexual practices as they were – not as they were imagined – has become a role model for successful prevention in the highly scandalized realm of sexually transmitted disease. By accepting the globalized character of local HIV-risk and projecting the risk onto populations which are neither particularly vocal groups nor vested with the means to strive for health and justice Thailand managed to culturally implement knowledge-based tools of prevention. This paper argues, that pertinent cultural collisions regarding our strategies to cope with HIV/AIDS are deeply rooted in misconceptions, misreadings and scandalizations brought about in the early history of HIV in the 1980ties. The Thai strategy is used to demonstrate how local values can be balanced against globalized health risk and used to effectuated prevention by which knowledge and norms are translated into local practices. Issues of global health and injustice will be addressed in the final part of the paper dealing with the achievability of health as a human right.

Keywords: bioethics, HIV, global health, justice

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Authors: Xiaojing Wang, Ann-Marie Ward, Tony Wall

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The problem of over-indebtedness has increased since deregulation of the banking industry in the 1980s, and now it has become a major problem for most countries in Europe, including Germany. Consumer debt issues have attracted not only the attention of academics but also government and debt counselling institutions. Overall, this research aims to contribute to the knowledge gap regarding the causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany and to develop predictive models for assessing consumer over-indebtedness risk at consumer level. The situation of consumer over-indebtedness is serious in Germany. The relatively high level of social welfare support in Germany suggests that consumer debt problems are caused by other factors, other than just over-spending and income volatility. Prior literature suggests that the overall stability of the economy and level of welfare support for individuals from the structural environment contributes to consumers’ debt problems. In terms of cultural influence, the conspicuous consumption theory in consumer behaviour suggests that consumers would spend more than their means to be seen as similar profiles to consumers in a higher socio-economic class. This results in consumers taking on more debt than they can afford, and eventually becoming over-indebted. Studies have also shown that financial literacy is negatively related to consumer over-indebtedness risk. Whilst prior literature has examined structural and cultural influences respectively, no study has taken a collective approach. To address this gap, a model is developed to investigate the association between consumer over-indebtedness and proxies for influences from the structural and cultural environment based on the above theories. The model also controls for consumer demographic characteristics identified as being of influence in prior literature, such as gender and age, and adverse shocks, such as divorce or bereavement in the household. Benefiting from SOEP regional data, this study is able to conduct quantitative empirical analysis to test both structural and cultural influences at a localised level. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study data from 2006 to 2016, this study finds that social benefits, financial literacy and the existence of conspicuous consumption all contribute to being over-indebted. Generally speaking, the risk of becoming over-indebted is high when consumers are in a low-welfare community, have little awareness of their own financial situation and always over-spend. In order to tackle the problem of over-indebtedness, countermeasures can be taken, for example, increasing consumers’ financial awareness, and the level of welfare support. By analysing causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany, this study also provides new insights on the nature and underlying causes of consumer debt issues in Europe.

Keywords: consumer, debt, financial literacy, socio-economic

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Authors: Violetta Parutis

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This qualitative study aims to answer the following research questions: i) What are the factors that students perceive as relevant to a) promoting and b) preventing good grades? ii) How does socio-economic status (SES) feature in those beliefs? We conducted in-depth interviews with 19 first- and second-year undergraduates of varying SES at a research-intensive university in the UK. The interviews yielded eight factors that students perceived as promoting and six perceived as preventing good grades. The findings suggested one significant difference between the beliefs of low and high SES students in that low SES students perceive themselves to be at a greater disadvantage to their peers while high SES students do not have such beliefs. This could have knock-on effects on their performance.

Keywords: social class, education, academic performance, students’ beliefs

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Authors: Danish Farooq, Janos Juhasz

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Car-motorcycle accidents have been observed higher in recent years, which caused mainly riders’ fatalities and serious injuries. In-depth crash investigation methods aim to investigate the main factors which are likely involved in fatal road accidents and injury outcomes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the involved factors in car-motorcycle accidents in Budapest city. The procedure included statistical analysis and data sampling to identify car-motorcycle accidents by dominant accident types based on collision configurations. The police report was used as a data source for specified accidents, and simulation models were plotted according to scale (M 1:200). Car-motorcycle accidents were simulated in Virtual Crash software for 5 seconds before the collision. The simulation results showed that the main involved factors to car-motorcycle accidents were human behavior and view obstructions. The comprehensive, in-depth analysis also found that most of the car drivers and riders were unable to perform collision avoidance manoeuvres before the collision. This study can help the traffic safety authorities to focus on simulated involved factors to solve road safety issues in car-motorcycle accidents. The study also proposes safety measures to improve safe movements among road users.

Keywords: car motorcycle accidents, in-depth analysis, microscopic simulation, safety measures

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Authors: Netta Horesh Reinman

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The inability to communicate feelings and thoughts to people close to oneself may be an important risk factor for suicidal behavior. This inability has been operationalized in the concept of “self-disclosure.” The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the correlation of self-disclosure with suicidal behavior in adolescents. Eighty consecutive admissions to an adolescent psychiatric inpatient unit were evaluated. Thirty-four were suicide attempters, 18 were suicidal ideators, and 18 were non-suicidal. Assessment measures included the Child Suicide Potential Scale, the Suicide Intent Scale, the Suicide Ideation Scale, and the Self-Disclosure Scale. The results show that low self-disclosure levels are associated with suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and suicidal attitudes. Thus, low self-disclosure may well be a risk factor worthy of further evaluation in the attempt to understand adolescent suicidal behavior.

Keywords: self disclosure, suicide, adolescents, treatment

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Authors: Brock Liden, Eric Janowitz

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Introduction: Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) affects 70% of individuals with diabetes1. DPN causes a loss of protective sensation, which can lead to tissue damage and diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) formation2. These ulcers can result in infections and lower-extremity amputations of toes, the entire foot, and the lower leg. Even after a DFU is healed, recurrence is common, with 49% of DFU patients developing another ulcer within a year and 68% within 5 years3. This case series examines the use of sensory insoles and newly available plantar data (pressure, temperature, step count, adherence) and remote patient monitoring in patients at risk of DFU. Methods: Participants were provided with custom-made sensory insoles to monitor plantar pressure, temperature, step count, and daily use and were provided with real-time cues for pressure offloading as they went about their daily activities. The sensory insoles were used to track subject compliance, ulceration, and response to feedback from real-time alerts. Patients were remotely monitored by a qualified healthcare professional and were contacted when areas of concern were seen and provided coaching on reducing risk factors and overall support to improve foot health. Results: Of the 40 participants provided with the sensory insole system, 4 presented with a DFU. Based on flags generated from the available plantar data, patients were contacted by the remote monitor to address potential concerns. A standard clinical escalation protocol detailed when and how concerns should be escalated to the provider by the remote monitor. Upon escalation to the provider, patients were brought into the clinic as needed, allowing for any issues to be addressed before more serious complications might arise. Conclusion: This case series explores the use of innovative sensory technology to collect plantar data (pressure, temperature, step count, and adherence) for DFU detection and early intervention. The results from this case series suggest the importance of sensory technology and remote patient monitoring in providing proactive, preventative care for patients at risk of DFU. This robust plantar data, with the addition of remote patient monitoring, allow for patients to be seen in the clinic when concerns arise, giving providers the opportunity to intervene early and prevent more serious complications, such as wounds, from occurring.

Keywords: diabetic foot ulcer, DFU prevention, digital therapeutics, remote patient monitoring

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Authors: W. C. Lucas, S. Titus, M. E. M. Young

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Gymnastics is the umbrella term that represents seven different and unique disciplines of gymnastics. Men and women of all ages and abilities practice this sport, and participation in gymnastics can develop both gross and fine motor skills, strength, flexibility, coordination and balance. There are various social factors, such as a family’s socioeconomic status or accessibility to sports facilities that may play a role in affecting levels of participation. The aim of this study is to investigate the social factors that have an influence on gymnastics participation in the Western Cape. To this end, a qualitative approach is adopted to collect data. This study also adopts the ecological systems theory as the theoretical framework, and is used to analyze and interpret current social factors that directly or indirectly influence participation in gymnastics. The study’s objectives were to ascertain which social factors hinder participation, and which social factors promote participation, thus, coaches, parents and gymnasts participated in focus group discussions. Key informant interviews took place with experts in the field of gymnastics in the Western Cape. A thematic analysis was conducted on transcriptions from the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Social factors investigated in this study occurred in the chronosystem, macrosystem, exosystem, mesosystem, and microsystem, and had both a direct and indirect influence on the gymnast’s continued participation. These systems are defined as the environment of the individual, in which they grow and develop. The research findings of this paper are used to draw conclusions and make specific recommendations for practice and further research. The information gathered in this study can assist all stakeholders within the field of gymnastics, such as parents, judges, coaches, gymnasts, and the supporting community which surround the participating gymnast.

Keywords: developing child, ecological systems theory, facilities, federation, gymnastics, influence, participation, social factors, socioeconomic status, sport

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

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Authors: Yixiao Tang

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The risks of adolescents being exposed to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and participating in unsafe sexual practices are increasing. There is the necessity and significance of providing adolescents with appropriate sex education, considering they are at the stage of life exploration and risk-taking. However, in delivering sex education, the contents and instruction methods are usually discussed with contextual differences. In the Chinese context, the socially prejudiced perceptions of homosexuality can be attributed to the traditional Chinese Confucian philosophy, which has been dominating Chinese education for thousands of years. In China, students rarely receive adequate information about HIV, STDs, the use of contraceptives, pregnancies, and other sexually related topics in their formal education. Underlying the Confucian cultural background, this essay will analyze the variables that determine the subject matter of sex education for adolescents and then discuss how this cultural form affects social views and policy on sex education.

Keywords: homosexuality education, adolescent, China, education policy

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Authors: Narash Narasimman, Calvin Leong Jia Jun, Raksha Karthik, Paul Englert

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Background: Project Grit, a 12-week youth resilience program implemented by Impart and Spartans Boxing Club, aimed to help at-risk adolescents develop resilience through psychoeducation and mental health techniques for dealing with everyday stressors and adversity. The programme consists of two parts-1.5 hours of group therapy followed by 1 hour of boxing. Due to the novelty of the study, 6 male participants, aged 13 to 18, were recruited to participate in the study. Aim: This case study aims to examine the effectiveness of Project Grit in building resilience among at-risk adolescents. Methods: A case study design was employed to capture the complexity and uniqueness of the intervention, without oversimplifying or generalizing it. A 15-year-old male participant with a history of behavioural challenges, delinquency and gang involvement was selected for the study. Teacher, parent and child versions of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) were administered to the facilitators, parents and participants respectively before and after the programme. Relevant themes from the qualitative interviews will be discussed. Results: Scores from all raters revealed improvements in most domains of the SDQ. Total difficulties scores across all raters improved from “very high” to “close to average”. High interrater reliability was observed (κ= .81). The participant reported learning methods to effectively deal with his everyday concerns using healthy coping strategies, developing a supportive social network, and building on his self efficacy. Themes from the subject’s report concurred with the improvement in SDQ scores. Conclusions: The findings suggest that Project Grit is a promising intervention for promoting resilience among at-risk adolescents. The teleological behaviourism framework and the combination of sports engagement and future orientation may be particularly effective in fostering resilience among this population. Further studies need to be conducted with a larger sample size to further validate the effectiveness of Project Grit.

Keywords: resilience, project grit, adolescents, at-risk, boxing, future orientation

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Authors: Obioma Uche

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Due to the recent volatility in oil & gas prices as well as increased development of non-conventional resources, it has become even more essential to critically evaluate the profitability of petroleum prospects prior to making any investment decisions. Traditionally, simple Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms have been used to randomly sample probability distributions of economic and geological factors (e.g. price, OPEX, CAPEX, reserves, productive life, etc.) in order to obtain probability distributions for profitability metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV). In recent years, second-order MC algorithms have been shown to offer an advantage over simple MC techniques due to the added consideration of uncertainties associated with the probability distributions of the relevant variables. Here, a strategy for the application of the second-order MC technique to a case study is demonstrated to analyze its effectiveness as a tool for portfolio management.

Keywords: Monte Carlo algorithms, portfolio management, profitability, risk analysis

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Authors: Mushtaq Ahmad, Bashir Rahman, Taqweem-ul-Haq, Fazal Jalil, Aftab Ali Shah

Abstract:

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes coding for microRNAs (miRNAs) play a pivotal role in the progression of breast cancer (BC). We investigated the association of miR-146a rs2910164 G/C polymorphism with the risk of BC in the Pakistani population. The miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism was genotyped in 300 BC-cases and 300 age- and gender-matched healthy controls using T-ARMS-PCR. Genotype and allele frequencies were calculated, and the association between genotypes and the risk of BC was calculated by odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (95%). A significant difference in genotypic frequencies (χ2=63.10; p ≤ 0.0001) and allelic frequencies (OR=0.3955 (0.3132-0.4993); p ≤ 0.0001) was observed between cases and controls. Furthermore, we also found that miR-146 rs2910164 CC homozygote increased the risk of breast cancer in the dominant (OR=0.2397 (0.1629-0.3526); p=0.0001; GG vs GC+CC) and recessive (OR=2.803 (1.865- 4.213); P ≤ 0.0001; CC vs GC+GG) inheritance models. In summary, miR-146a rs2910164 G/C is significantly associated with BC in the Pakistani population. To our knowledge, this is the first study that assessed MIR146a rs2910164 G > C SNP in Pakistani population. By analyzing the secondary structure of MIR146A variant, a significant structural modification was noted. Study with a larger sample size is needed to further confirm these findings.

Keywords: breast cancer, MIR146A, microRNA, SNP

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Authors: Haider Karar, Saghir Ahmad, Amjad Ali, Ibrar Ul Haq

Abstract:

The experiment was conducted at Cotton Research Station, Multan to study the impact of weather factors and red cotton bug (RCB) on cotton boll disease yielded yellowish lint during 2012. The population on RCB along with abiotic factors was recorded during three consecutive years i.e. 2012, 2013, and 2014. Along with population of RCB and abiotic factors, the number of unopened/opened cotton bolls (UOB), percent yellowish lint (YL) and whitish lint (WL) were also recorded. The data revealed that the population per plant of RCB remain 0.50 and 0.34 during years 2012, 2013 but increased during 2014 i.e. 3.21 per plant. The number of UOB were more i.e. 13.43% in 2012 with YL 76.30 and WL 23.70% when average maximum temperature 34.73◦C, minimum temperature 22.83◦C, RH 77.43% and 11.08 mm rainfall. Similarly in 2013 the number of UOB were less i.e. 0.34 per plant with YL 1.48 and WL 99.53 per plant when average maximum temperature 34.60◦C, minimum temperature 23.37◦C, RH 73.01% and 9.95 mm rainfall. During 2014 RCB population per plant was 3.22 with no UOB and YL was 0.00% and WL was 100% when average maximum temperature 23.70◦C, minimum temperature 23.18◦C, RH 71.67% and 4.55 mm rainfall. So it is concluded that the cotton bolls disease was more during 2012 due to more rainfall and more percent RH. The RCB may be the carrier of boll rot disease pathogen during more rainfall.

Keywords: red cotton bug, cotton, weather factors, years

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Authors: A. Banovcinova, M. Zakova

Abstract:

Labor market activity and paid employment should be a key factor in protecting individuals and families from falling into poverty and providing them with sufficient resources to meet the needs of their members. However, due to various processes in the labor market as well as the influence of individual factors and often insufficient social capital, there is a relatively large group of households that cannot eliminate paid employment and find themselves in a state of so-called working poverty. The aim of the research was to find out what strategies families use in managing poverty and meeting their needs and which of these strategies prevail in the Slovak population. A quantitative research strategy was chosen. The method of data collection was a structured interview focused on finding out the use of individual management strategies and also selected demographic indicators. The research sample consisted of members of families in which at least one member has a paid job. The condition for inclusion in the research was that the family's income did not exceed 60% of the national median equalized disposable income. The analysis of the results showed 5 basic areas to which management strategies are related - work, financial security, needs, social contacts and perception of the current situation. The prevailing strategies were strategies aimed at increasing and streamlining labor market activity and the planned and effective management of the family budget. Strategies that were rejected were mainly related to debt creation. The results make it possible to identify the preferred ways of managing poverty in individual areas of life, as well as the factors that influence this behavior. This information is important for working with families living in a state of working poverty and can help professionals develop positive ways of coping for families.

Keywords: copying strategies, family, in-work poverty, quantitative research

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Authors: Didier Birimwiragi Namogo

Abstract:

The Kivu Lake Basin is located in the Western Branch of the East African Rift. In this basin is located a multitude of active faults, on which earthquakes occur regularly. The most recent earthquakes date from 2008, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The cities of Bukabu and Goma in DR Congo and Giseyi in Rwanda are the most impacted by this intense seismic activity in the region. The magnitude of the strongest earthquakes in the region is 6.1. The 2008 earthquake was particularly destructive, killing several people in DR Congo and Rwanda. This work aims to complete the distribution of seismicity in the region, deduce areas of weakness and establish a hazard map that can assist in seismic risk management. Using the local seismic network of the Goma Volcano Observatory, the earthquakes were relocated, and their focus mechanism was studied. The results show that most of these earthquakes occur on active faults described by Villeneuve in 1938. The alignment of the earthquakes shows a pace that follows directly the directions of the faults described by this author. The study of the focus mechanism of these earthquakes, also shows that these are in particular normal faults whose stresses show an extensive activity. Such study can be used for the establishment of seismic risk management tools.

Keywords: earthquakes, hazard map, faults, focus mechanism

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

Abstract:

The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Arpan Paul, Joy Sen

Abstract:

Livability is a holistic concept whose factors include many complex characteristics and levels of interrelationships among them. It has been considered as people’s need for public amenities and is recognized as a major element to create social welfare. The concept and principles of livability are essential for recognizing the significance of community well-being. The attributes and dimensions of livability are also important aspects to measure the overall quality of environment. Livability potential is mainly considered as the capacity to develop into the overall well-being of an urban area in future. The intent of the present study is to identify the prime factors to evaluate livability potential within a metropolis. For ground level case study, the paper has selected Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) as it has wide physical, social, and economic variations within it. The initial part of the study deals with detailed literature review on livability and its significance of evaluating its potential within a metropolis. The next segment is dedicated for identifying the primary factors which would evaluate livability potential within a metropolis. In pursuit of identifying primary factors, which have a direct impact on urban livability, this study delineates the metropolitan area into various clusters, having their distinct livability potential. As a final outcome of the study, variations of livability potential of those selected clusters are highlighted to explain the complexity of the metropolitan development.

Keywords: Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA), livability potential, metropolis, wellbeing

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Authors: Chukwumeka Daniel Ezeliora

Abstract:

The Nigerian manufacturing sector plays a pivotal role in the country's economic growth and development. However, it faces numerous challenges, including operational inefficiencies and inherent risks that hinder its sustainable growth. This research aims to address these challenges by exploring the integration of Lean and Six Sigma methodologies into the manufacturing processes, ultimately enhancing operational effectiveness and risk mitigation. The core of this research involves the development of a sustainable Lean Six Sigma framework tailored to the specific needs and challenges of Nigeria's manufacturing environment. This framework aims to streamline processes, reduce waste, improve product quality, and enhance overall operational efficiency. It incorporates principles of sustainability to ensure that the proposed methodologies align with environmental and social responsibility goals. To validate the effectiveness of the integrated Lean Six Sigma approach, case studies and real-world applications within select manufacturing companies in Nigeria will be conducted. Data were collected to measure the impact of the integration on key performance indicators, such as production efficiency, defect reduction, and risk mitigation. The findings from this research provide valuable insights and practical recommendations for selected manufacturing companies in South East Nigeria. By adopting sustainable Lean Six Sigma methodologies, these organizations can optimize their operations, reduce operational risks, improve product quality, and enhance their competitiveness in the global market. In conclusion, this research aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice by developing a comprehensive framework for the integration of Lean and Six Sigma methodologies in Nigeria's manufacturing sector. This integration is envisioned to contribute significantly to the sector's sustainable growth, improved operational efficiency, and effective risk mitigation strategies, ultimately benefiting the Nigerian economy as a whole.

Keywords: lean six sigma, manufacturing, risk mitigation, sustainability, operational efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 209