Search results for: nonlinear mathematical model

Authors: Nikhil Kumar, Asish Bandyopadhyay

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Laser welding process is a capable technology for forming the automobile, microelectronics, marine and aerospace parts etc. In the present work, a mathematical and statistical approach is adopted to study the laser welding of AISI 304 stainless steel. A robotic control 500 W pulsed Nd:YAG laser source with 1064 nm wavelength has been used for welding purpose. Butt joints are made. The effects of welding parameters, namely; laser power, scanning speed and pulse width on the seam width and depth of penetration has been investigated using the empirical models developed by response surface methodology (RSM). Weld quality is directly correlated with the weld geometry. Twenty sets of experiments have been conducted as per central composite design (CCD) design matrix. The second order mathematical model has been developed for predicting the desired responses. The results of ANOVA indicate that the laser power has the most significant effect on responses. Microstructural analysis as well as hardness of the selected weld specimens has been carried out to understand the metallurgical and mechanical behaviour of the weld. Average micro-hardness of the weld is observed to be higher than the base metal. Higher hardness of the weld is the resultant of grain refinement and δ-ferrite formation in the weld structure. The result suggests that the lower line energy generally produce fine grain structure and improved mechanical properties than the high line energy. The combined effects of input parameters on responses have been analyzed with the help of developed 3-D response surface and contour plots. Finally, multi-objective optimization has been conducted for producing weld joint with complete penetration, minimum seam width and acceptable welding profile. Confirmatory tests have been conducted at optimum parametric conditions to validate the applied optimization technique.

Keywords: ANOVA, laser welding, modeling and optimization, response surface methodology

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Authors: A. Ghenaim, A. Terfous

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In this work, degradation phenomena in fluvial beds having uniform sediments are explored experimentally under extreme flow conditions. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a rectangular cross-section channel for different flow conditions, channel characteristics, and sediment properties at the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Strasbourg, France). Tests were carried out in two conditions: (1) equilibrium condition, where, once the steady and uniform flow conditions were achieved for a given slope and discharge, the channel was fed with variable sediment discharges until the bed-load sediment transport achieved an equilibrium condition; and (2) nonequilibrium condition, where the sediment feeding was instantaneously stopped, and the bed levels were measured over time. Experimental results enabled assessing the erosion rates and determining the empirical mathematical model to predict the bed level changes.

Keywords: fluvial beds, sediment, uniform flow conditions, nonequilibrium condition, sediment disposition, erosion

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Authors: Emmanuel Omokhuale

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A mathematical model is presented to study free convective boundary layer flow in a semi-infinite vertical cylinder with heat sink effect in a porous medium. The governing dimensional governing partial differential equations (PDEs) with corresponding initial and boundary conditions are approximated and solved numerically employing finite difference method (FDM) the implicit type. Stability and convergence of the scheme are also established. Furthermore, the influence of significant physical parameters on the flow characteristics was analysed and shown graphically. The obtained results are benchmarked with previously published works in order to access the accuracy of the numerical method and found to be in good agreement.

Keywords: free convection flow, vertical cylinder, implicit finite difference method, heat sink and porous medium

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Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

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This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Mohammed A. Sakr, Tarek M. Khalifa, Walid N. Mansour

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External bonding of fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) plates to reinforced concrete (RC) beams is an effective technique for flexural strengthening. This paper presents an analytical parametric study on the behavior of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates on the upper and lower fibers, conducted using simple uniaxial nonlinear finite element model (UNFEM). UNFEM is able to estimate the load-carrying capacity, different failure modes and the interfacial stresses of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates on the upper and lower fibers. The study investigated the effect of five key parameters on the behavior and moment redistribution of FRP-reinforced continuous beams. The investigated parameters were the length of the FRP plate, the width and the thickness of the FRP plate, the ratio between the area of the FRP plate to the concrete area, the cohesive shear strength of the adhesive layer, and the concrete compressive strength. The investigation resulted in a number of important conclusions reflecting the effects of the studied parameters on the behavior of RC continuous beams flexurally strengthened with externally bonded FRP plates.

Keywords: continuous beams, parametric study, finite element, fiber reinforced polymer

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Authors: Siming Xie

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In social networks, the term homophily refers to the tendency of agents with similar characteristics to link with one another and is so robustly observed across many contexts and dimensions. The starting point of my research is the observation that the “type” of agents is not a single exogenous variable. Agents, despite their differences in race, religion, and other hard to alter characteristics, may share interests and engage in activities that cut across those predetermined lines. This research aims to capture the interactions of homophily effects in a model where agents have two-dimension characteristics (i.e., race and personal hobbies such as basketball, which one either likes or dislikes) and with biases in meeting opportunities and in favor of same-type friendships. A novel feature of my model is providing a matching process with biased meeting probability on different dimensions, which could help to understand the structuring process in multidimensional networks without missing layer interdependencies. The main contribution of this study is providing a welfare based matching process for agents with multi-dimensional characteristics. In particular, this research shows that the biases in meeting opportunities on one dimension would lead to the emergence of homophily on the other dimension. The objective of this research is to determine the pattern of homophily in network formations, which will shed light on our understanding of segregation and its remedies. By constructing a two-dimension matching process, this study explores a method to describe agents’ homophilous behavior in a social network with multidimension and construct a game in which the minorities and majorities play different strategies in a society. It also shows that the optimal strategy is determined by the relative group size, where society would suffer more from social segregation if the two racial groups have a similar size. The research also has political implications—cultivating the same characteristics among agents helps diminishing social segregation, but only if the minority group is small enough. This research includes both theoretical models and empirical analysis. Providing the friendship formation model, the author first uses MATLAB to perform iteration calculations, then derives corresponding mathematical proof on previous results, and last shows that the model is consistent with empirical evidence from high school friendships. The anonymous data comes from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).

Keywords: homophily, multidimension, social networks, friendships

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Authors: Siamak Dawazdah Emami, Amin Khodaei, Harith Bin Ahmad, Hairul A. Adbul-Rashid

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The Fano resonance effect on plasmonic nanoparticle materials results in such materials possessing a number of unique optical properties, and the potential applicability for sensing, nonlinear devices and slow-light devices. A Fano resonance is a consequence of coherent interference between superradiant and subradiant hybridized plasmon modes. Incident light on subradiant modes will initiate excitation that results in superradiant modes, and these superradient modes possess zero or finite dipole moments alongside a comparable negligible coupling with light. This research work details the derivation of an electrodynamics coupling model for the interaction of dipolar transitions and radiation via plasmonic nanoclusters such as quadrimers, pentamers and heptamers. The directivity calculation is analyzed in order to qualify the redirection of emission. The geometry of a configured array of nanostructures strongly influenced the transmission and reflection properties, which subsequently resulted in the directivity of each antenna being related to the nanosphere size and gap distances between the nanospheres in each model’s structure. A well-separated configuration of nanospheres resulted in the structure behaving similarly to monomers, with spectra peaks of a broad superradiant mode being centered within the vicinity of 560 nm wavelength. Reducing the distance between ring nanospheres in pentamers and heptamers to 20~60 nm caused the coupling factor and charge distributions to increase and invoke a subradiant mode centered within the vicinity of 690 nm. Increasing the outside ring’s nanosphere distance from the centered nanospheres caused the coupling factor to decrease, with the coupling factor being inversely proportional to cubic of the distance between nanospheres. This phenomenon led to a dramatic decrease of the superradiant mode at a 200 nm distance between the central nanosphere and outer rings. Effects from a superradiant mode vanished beyond a 240 nm distance between central and outer ring nanospheres.

Keywords: fano resonance, optical antenna, plasmonic, nano-clusters

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Due to its porous nature, karst terrains – geomorphologically developed from dissolved formations, is vulnerable to water shortage and deteriorated water quality. Therefore, a solid comprehension on sub-surface flow of karst landscape is essential to assess the long-term availability of groundwater resources. In this paper, a single-continuum model using a finite difference model, MODLFOW, was constructed to represent an unconfined carbonate aquifer in a tropical karst island of Rote in Indonesia. The model, spatially discretized in 20 x 20 m grid cells, was calibrated and validated using available groundwater level and atmospheric variables. In the calibration and validation steps, Parameter Estimation (PEST) and geostatistical pilot point methods were employed to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values. The results show that the model is able to represent the sub-surface flow indicated by good model performances both in calibration and validation steps. The final model can be used as a robust representation of the system for future study on climate and land use scenarios.

Keywords: carbonate aquifer, karst, sub-surface flow, groundwater model

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Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions sometimes necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases, finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of the lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear walls, in addition to the location, the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear wall and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multi-story buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-story buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement, and particularly the formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, l-, t-, u- and z-shaped plan walls

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Sinha, Monika

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The author has tried to increase the efficiency of the storage zone of a salt gradient solar pond, storing heat and delivering it to different uses by extracting heat from the storage zone of an SGSP. A mathematical analysis has demonstrated that the heat extraction from the storage zone might potentially produce heat at a reasonably high temperature of up to 115 degrees centigrade, which increases the efficiency of the salt gradient solar pond when compared to a corrugated bottom solar pond to a conventional salt gradient solar pond. The C++ program was implemented to get the simulation results. The system and operating characteristics of the salt gradient solar pond, such as the depth of the pond, heat extraction rate, heat capacity rate, and area enhancement factor (β), have been found to have a variety of effects on efficiency and temperature distribution. It has been reported that system and operating factors affect the temperature distribution in the solar pond.

Keywords: solar pond, heat extraction rate, simulation results using C++, area enhancement factor (β), surface convective zone, gradient zone, storage zone

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Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

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Authors: Murray L. Ireland, Kevin J. Worrall, Rebecca Mackenzie, Thaleia Flessa, Euan McGookin, Douglas Thomson

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Robotic rovers which are designed to work in extra-terrestrial environments present a unique challenge in terms of the reliability and availability of systems throughout the mission. Should some fault occur, with the nearest human potentially millions of kilometres away, detection and identification of the fault must be performed solely by the robot and its subsystems. Faults in the system sensors are relatively straightforward to detect, through the residuals produced by comparison of the system output with that of a simple model. However, faults in the input, that is, the actuators of the system, are harder to detect. A step change in the input signal, caused potentially by the loss of an actuator, can propagate through the system, resulting in complex residuals in multiple outputs. These residuals can be difficult to isolate or distinguish from residuals caused by environmental disturbances. While a more complex fault detection method or additional sensors could be used to solve these issues, an alternative is presented here. Using inverse simulation (InvSim), the inputs and outputs of the mathematical model of the rover system are reversed. Thus, for a desired trajectory, the corresponding actuator inputs are obtained. A step fault near the input then manifests itself as a step change in the residual between the system inputs and the input trajectory obtained through inverse simulation. This approach avoids the need for additional hardware on a mass- and power-critical system such as the rover. The InvSim fault detection method is applied to a simple four-wheeled rover in simulation. Additive system faults and an external disturbance force and are applied to the vehicle in turn, such that the dynamic response and sensor output of the rover are impacted. Basic model-based fault detection is then employed to provide output residuals which may be analysed to provide information on the fault/disturbance. InvSim-based fault detection is then employed, similarly providing input residuals which provide further information on the fault/disturbance. The input residuals are shown to provide clearer information on the location and magnitude of an input fault than the output residuals. Additionally, they can allow faults to be more clearly discriminated from environmental disturbances.

Keywords: fault detection, ground robot, inverse simulation, rover

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Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald

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Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.

Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish

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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong

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Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.

Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition

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Authors: Desmond Agbolade Ademola

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This work aimed to introduce a theory, called Guided Energy Theory of a particle that answered questions that arise from quantum foundation, quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation such as: what is nature of wavefunction? Is mathematical formalism of wavefunction correct? Does wavefunction collapse during measurement? Do quantum physical entanglement and many world interpretations really exist? In addition, is there uncertainty in the physical reality of our nature as being concluded in the Quantum theory? We have been able to show by the fundamental analysis presented in this work that the way quantum mechanics theory, and interpretation describes nature is not correlated with physical reality. Because, we discovered amongst others that, (1) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally provides complete physical observable series of quantized measurement of a particle momentum, force, energy e.t.c. in a given distance and time.In contrast, quantum mechanics wavefunction describes that nature has inherited probabilistic and indeterministic physical quantities, resulting in unobservable physical quantities that lead to many worldinterpretation.(2) Guided energy theory of a particle fundamentally predicts that it is mathematically possible to determine precise quantized measurementof position and momentum of a particle simultaneously. Because, there is no uncertainty in nature; nature however naturally guides itself against uncertainty. Contrary to the conclusion in quantum mechanics theory that, it is mathematically impossible to determine the position and the momentum of a particle simultaneously. Furthermore, we have been able to show by this theory that, it is mathematically possible to determine quantized measurement of force acting on a particle simultaneously, which is not possible on the premise of quantum mechanics theory. (3) It is evidently shown by our theory that, guided energy does not collapse, only describes the lopsided nature of a particle behavior in motion. This pretty offers us insight on gradual process of engagement - convergence and disengagement – divergence of guided energy holders which further highlight the picture how wave – like behavior return to particle-like behavior and how particle – like behavior return to wave – like behavior respectively. This further proves that the particles’ behavior in motion is oscillatory in nature. The mathematical formalism of Guided energy theory shows that nature is certainty whereas the mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory shows that nature is absolutely probabilistics. In addition, the nature of wavefunction is the guided energy of the wave. In conclusion, the fundamental mathematical formalism of Quantum mechanics theory is wrong.

Keywords: momentum, physical entanglement, wavefunction, uncertainty

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Mohamed Houas, Maamar Benbachir

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In this paper, under weak assumptions, we study the existence and uniqueness of solutions for a nonlinear fractional boundary value problem. New existence and uniqueness results are established using Banach contraction principle. Other existence results are obtained using scheafer and krasnoselskii's fixed point theorem. At the end, some illustrative examples are presented.

Keywords: caputo derivative, boundary value problem, fixed point theorem, local conditions

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Qudama Albu-Jasim, Majdi Kanaan

Abstract:

A case study about the load rating and strengthening evaluation of the six-span of steel girders bridge in Colton city of State of California is investigated. To simulate the load rating strengthening assessment for the Colton Overhead bridge, a three-dimensional finite element model built in the CSiBridge program is simulated. Three-dimensional finite-element models of the bridge are established considering the nonlinear behavior of critical bridge components to determine the feasibility and strengthening capacity under load rating analysis. The bridge was evaluated according to Caltrans Bridge Load Rating Manual 1st edition for rating the superstructure using the Load and Resistance Factor Rating (LRFR) method. The analysis for the bridge was based on load rating to determine the largest loads that can be safely placed on existing I-girder steel members and permitted to pass over the bridge. Through extensive numerical simulations, the bridge is identified to be deficient in flexural and shear capacities, and therefore strengthening for reducing the risk is needed. An in-depth parametric study is considered to evaluate the sensitivity of the bridge’s load rating response to variations in its structural parameters. The parametric analysis has exhibited that uncertainties associated with the steel’s yield strength, the superstructure’s weight, and the diaphragm configurations should be considered during the fragility analysis of the bridge system.

Keywords: load rating, CSIBridge, strengthening, uncertainties, case study

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: M. S. Nikitenko, S. A. Kizilov, D. Y. Khudonogov

Abstract:

The paper considers an approach to a machine vision operating system combined with using a grid of light markers. This approach is used to solve several scientific and technical problems, such as measuring the capability of an apron feeder delivering coal from a lining return port to a conveyor in the technology of mining high coal releasing to a conveyor and prototyping an autonomous vehicle obstacle detection system. Primary verification of a method of calculating bulk material volume using three-dimensional modeling and validation in laboratory conditions with relative errors calculation were carried out. A method of calculating the capability of an apron feeder based on a machine vision system and a simplifying technology of a three-dimensional modelled examined measuring area with machine vision was offered. The proposed method allows measuring the volume of rock mass moved by an apron feeder using machine vision. This approach solves the volume control issue of coal produced by a feeder while working off high coal by lava complexes with release to a conveyor with accuracy applied for practical application. The developed mathematical apparatus for measuring feeder productivity in kg/s uses only basic mathematical functions such as addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. Thus, this fact simplifies software development, and this fact expands the variety of microcontrollers and microcomputers suitable for performing tasks of calculating feeder capability. A feature of an obstacle detection issue is to correct distortions of the laser grid, which simplifies their detection. The paper presents algorithms for video camera image processing and autonomous vehicle model control based on obstacle detection machine vision systems. A sample fragment of obstacle detection at the moment of distortion with the laser grid is demonstrated.

Keywords: machine vision, machine vision operating system, light markers, measuring capability, obstacle detection system, autonomous transport

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Nattamon Srithammee, Ratchanikorn Chonchaiya

Abstract:

This study explores the impact of Augmented Reality (AR) technology on mathematics education, focusing on Area and Volume concepts at Phra Dabos School in Thailand. We developed a mobile augmented reality application to present these mathematical concepts innovatively. Using a mixed-methods approach, we assessed the knowledge of 79 students before and after using the application. The results showed a significant improvement in students' understanding of Area and Volume, with average test scores increasing from 3.70 to 9.04 (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 2.05). Students also reported increased engagement and satisfaction. Our findings suggest that augmented reality technology can be a valuable tool in mathematics education, particularly for enhancing the understanding of abstract concepts like Area and Volume. This study contributes to research on educational technology in STEM education and provides insights for educators and educational technology developers.

Keywords: augmented reality, mathematics education, area and volume, educational technology, STEM education

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Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy

Abstract:

Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.

Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

Abstract:

In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

Procedia PDF Downloads 220