Search results for: financial burden
1714 The Budget Profile of the Municipality of AtaleIa-MG in the Context of the Micro-Region of Teofilo Otoni in Brazil
Authors: Jeferson Gomes Dos Santos, Mirelle Cristina De Abreu Quintela
Abstract:
Considering that after the 1988 Constitution, in Brazil, municipalities have acquired new roles in the face of a financial reality that jeopardizes more substantial actions, the Public Budget is essential for the establishment of guidelines for action, within each budgetary reality. Within this, the present work sought to understand the budget profile of the mining municipality of Ataleia, with a view to identifying its budget composition, in relation to the main sources of revenue and expenditure. To achieve the purposes of the study, information was collected on the municipality's finances, from the years 2000 to 2016, visualizing the progress of its revenues in terms of funding and origin, and expenses in terms of nature and purpose. It was evidenced that the municipality, having its budget revenue in the period, still shows great dependence on intergovernmental transfers, as the own collection was relatively low. The budget expenditure of the period was mainly influenced by social expenditures, but it must be said that the municipality complied with the limits of spending, minimum and maximum, established by law.Keywords: expenses, municipal budget, planning, revenue
Procedia PDF Downloads 2241713 Association between Dental Caries and Asthma among 12-15 Years Old School Children Studying in Karachi, Pakistan: A Cross Sectional Study
Authors: Wajeeha Zahid, Shafquat Rozi, Farhan Raza, Masood Kadir
Abstract:
Background: Dental caries affects the overall health and well-being of children. Findings from various international studies regarding the association of dental caries with asthma are inconsistent. With the increasing burden of caries and childhood asthma, it becomes imperative for an underdeveloped country like Pakistan where resources are limited to identify whether there is a relationship between the two. This study aims to identify an association between dental caries and asthma. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 544 children aged 12-15 years recruited from five private schools in Karachi. Information on asthma was collected through the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire. The questionnaire addressed questions regarding child’s demographics, physician diagnoses of asthma, type of medication administered, family history of asthma and allergies, dietary habits and oral hygiene behavior. Dental caries was assessed using DMFT Index (Decayed, Missing, Filled teeth) index The data was analyzed using Cox proportional Hazard algorithm and crude and adjusted prevalence ratios with 95% CI were reported. Results: This study comprises of 306 (56.3%) boys and 238 (43.8%) girls. The mean age of children was 13.2 ± (0.05) years. The total number of children with carious teeth (DMFT > 0) were 166/544 (30.5%), and the decayed component contributed largely (22.8%) to the DMFT score. The prevalence of physician’s diagnosed asthma was 13%. This study identified almost 7% asthmatic children using the internationally validated International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) tool and 8 children with childhood asthma were identified by parent interviews. Overall prevalence of asthma was 109/544 (20%). The prevalence of caries in asthmatic children was 28.4% as compared to 31% among non-asthmatic children. The adjusted prevalence ratio of dental caries in asthmatic children was 0.8 (95% CI 0.59-1.29). After adjusting for carious food intake, age, oral hygiene index and dentist visit, the association between asthma and dental caries turned out to be non-significant. Conclusion: There was no association between asthma and dental caries among children who participated in this study.Keywords: asthma, caries, children, school-based
Procedia PDF Downloads 2461712 Socio-Demographic and Clinical Characteristics and Use of Herbal Medicine among Patients Seeking Consultation for Knee Osteoarthritis at Secondary Healthcare Facilities in Oman
Authors: Thuraya Ahmed Al Shidhani, Yahya Al Farsi, Alya Al Husni, Samir Al Adawi
Abstract:
Background: Knee osteoarthritis (knee OA) represents a major public health burden worldwide, particularly among older adults. However, little has been documented from Arabian Gulf countries, which have left an information gap. Objective: This study describes the socio-demographic, clinical risk factors, and use of herbal medicine among men and women seeking consultation for knee OA at two secondary healthcare facilities in Muscat, Oman. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 213 Omani adults with knee OA attending a referral polyclinic in Muscat, Oman, over 12 months from January to December. Socio-demographic data were collected from the participants who are seeking consultation for knee OA. Results: Among the 213 study participants, 171 were females and 42 males. The females were comparatively older than the males, had lower education and lower-income, and more overweight. The majority of the participants were normal weight or underweight. About one-third of participants reported OA in other joints as well. Most participants recalled that they had knee OA for less than a year. About 12% reported a history of trauma. The majority (63%) concurrently had other chronic illnesses, and 33% reported having at least one complication. About 22% were using herbal medicines. About 77% are using herbal local applications in form of powder and creams. Conclusion: This study, to our knowledge, is the first to explore socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors and use of herbal medicine among sufferers of knee OA in Oman. Knee OA tended to occur among our participants at younger ages than reported elsewhere, while obesity appeared orthogonal to the severity of knee OA. Women were more affected than men. About one quarter of Omani patients are using herbal medicine. More studies are needed to understand the causal factors and development of knee OA in Oman. Targeted health education and rehabilitation programs are needed, particularly among Omani women, to improve their physical quality of life.Keywords: knee joint, osteoarthritis, herbal medicine, Oman
Procedia PDF Downloads 1231711 Analysis of Economic Development Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in Nigeria: Way Forward
Authors: Sabiu Abdullahi Yau
Abstract:
Nigeria is a high fertility country that experiences eye-popping population growth, with no end in sight. However, there is evidence that its large population inhibits government’s efforts in meeting the basic needs of the people. Moreover, past and present governments of Nigeria have been committing huge amount of financial resources to meet the basic infrastructural requirements capable of propelling growth and development. Despite the country’s large population and abundant natural resources, poverty, unemployment, rural-urban migration, deforestation and inadequate infrastructural facilities have been persistently on the increase resulting in consistent failure of government policies to impact positively on the economy. This paper, however, identifies and critically analyses the major development challenges caused by population growth in Nigeria using secondary data. The paper concludes that for the Nigeria’s economy to develop, all the identified challenges posed by rapid population growth must be promptly and squarely addressed.Keywords: economic development, population, growth, Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 3311710 The Effect on Lead Times When Normalizing a Supply Chain Process
Authors: Bassam Istanbouli
Abstract:
Organizations are living in a very competitive and dynamic environment which is constantly changing. In order to achieve a high level of service, the products and processes of these organizations need to be flexible and evolvable. If the supply chains are not modular and well designed, changes can bring combinatorial effects to most areas of a company from its management, financial, documentation, logistics and its information structure. Applying the normalized system’s concept to segments of the supply chain may help in reducing those ripple effects, but it may also increase lead times. Lead times are important and can become a decisive element in gaining customers. Industries are always under the pressure in providing good quality products, at competitive prices, when and how the customer wants them. Most of the time, the customers want their orders now, if not yesterday. The above concept will be proven by examining lead times in a manufacturing example before and after applying normalized systems concept to that segment of the chain. We will then show that although we can minimize the combinatorial effects when changes occur, the lead times will be increased.Keywords: supply chain, lead time, normalization, modular
Procedia PDF Downloads 1251709 Islamophobia: A Study of Unfounded Fear of Islam in Nigeria
Authors: AbdulHameed Badmas Yusuf
Abstract:
Islamophobia is unfounded fear of Islam and, more accurately, of his adherents. This phenomenon has found a fertile terrain in Nigeria given her status as a multireligious society where Muslims and Christians co-exist. Over the years, Islamophobia has taken constitutional, diplomatic, educational, financial, and political dimensions in the country. Any move by Muslims to adhere to their religious dictates, within the constitutional framework, is misconstrued by Christians - their religious counterparts- as a systematic way of Islamizing the country. Against this backdrop, this paper casts a look at Islamophobia from the five dimensions mentioned above. It shall identify possible causes of Islamophobia and proffer solutions accordingly. Available resources as well as events in the recent past reveal that Islamophobia is not unconnected with orientalism and terrorism, which are informed by prejudice and ignorance respectively. As such, the paper suggests adequate knowledge and tolerance as inevitable tools to curtail the menace of Islamophobia. This will go a long way in enhancing mutual tolerance and peaceful co-existence among the adherents of Christianity, Islam, and other religions in Nigeria. Both historical and analytical methods are used in this paper.Keywords: islamophobia, islam, Nigeria, orientalism, terrorism
Procedia PDF Downloads 4281708 Addressing Factors Associated with Vertical HIV Transmission among Pregnant Women in Rwanda
Authors: Murorunkwere Marie Claire
Abstract:
Introduction: In Sub-Saharan Africa and specifically in Rwandan rural areas, mother-to-Child human immunodeficiency virus transmission remains a big challenge. This is mainly due to lack of awareness and ignorance among pregnant rural women, leading to neglect regular taking of prophylactic antiretroviral treatment and to persistently beliefs in traditional healers and home deliveries. This paper explores the factors associated with stagnant reduction in human immunodeficiency virus vertical transmission among pregnant rural women and provides solutions to tackle it. Methodology: The first phase of this research will be a qualitative survey was conducted to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices towards vertical human immunodeficiency virus transmission among pregnant women in one rural district in Rwanda. The data generated from phase one of this research will be used to address the main factors revealed through community mobilization and motivation on attending required antenatal consultations and hospital deliveries, proper and regular antiretroviral treatment taking, and discouraging beliefs in traditional healers and home deliveries. Refresher training seminars will also be organized for healthcare providers qualified on conducting deliveries about current measures to maximize the reduction of chances that can lead to mother -child contamination (to avoid early rupture of membranes and to prevent any source of contamination). Results: This paper is expected to contribute in a significant reduction of the vertical human immunodeficiency virus transmission burden among pregnant rural women. Conclusion: Strong campaigns on prevention of mother- to-child human immunodeficiency virus transmission and community mobilization of pregnant rural women, and house to house education and continuous reminders as well as training seminars to health care personnel on updated measures is, key in addressing vertical human immunodeficiency virus transmission.Keywords: attitudes transformation, community mobilisation, pregnant rural women, vertical HIV transmission
Procedia PDF Downloads 801707 Construction Quality Perception of Construction Professionals and Their Expectations from a Quality Improvement Technique in Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Yousaf Sadiq
Abstract:
The complexity arises in defining the construction quality due to its perception, based on inherent market conditions and their requirements, the diversified stakeholders itself and their desired output. An quantitative survey based approach was adopted in this constructive study. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted for the assessment of construction Quality perception and expectations in the context of quality improvement technique. The survey feedback of professionals of the leading construction organizations/companies of Pakistan construction industry were analyzed. The financial capacity, organizational structure, and construction experience of the construction firms formed basis for their selection. The quality perception was found to be project-scope-oriented and considered as an excess cost for a construction project. Any quality improvement technique was expected to maximize the profit for the employer, by improving the productivity in a construction project. The study is beneficial for the construction professionals to assess the prevailing construction quality perception and the expectations from implementation of any quality improvement technique in construction projects.Keywords: construction quality, expectation, improvement, perception
Procedia PDF Downloads 4761706 Methodology of Choosing Technology and Sizing of the Hybrid Energy Storage Based on Cost-benefit Analysis
Authors: Krzysztof Rafał, Weronika Radziszewska, Hubert Biedka, Oskar Grabowski, Krzysztof Mik
Abstract:
We present a method to choose energy storage technologies and their parameters for the economic operation of a microgrid. A grid-connected system with local loads and PV generation is assumed, where an energy storage system (ESS) is attached to minimize energy cost by providing energy balancing and arbitrage functionalities. The ESS operates in a hybrid configuration and consists of two unique technologies operated in a coordinated way. Based on given energy profiles and economical data a model calculates financial flow for ESS investment, including energy cost and ESS depreciation resulting from degradation. The optimization strategy proposes a hybrid set of two technologies with their respective power and energy ratings to minimize overall system cost in a given timeframe. Results are validated through microgrid simulations using real-life input profiles.Keywords: energy storage, hybrid energy storage, cost-benefit analysis, microgrid, battery sizing
Procedia PDF Downloads 2201705 Total Plaque Area in Chronic Renal Failure
Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García
Abstract:
Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol
Procedia PDF Downloads 2721704 Prevalence and Predictors of Metabolic Syndrome among Diabetic Clinic Attendees in Sokoto, Nigeria
Authors: Kehinde Joseph Awosan, Balarabe Adami Isah, Edzu Usman Yunusa, Sarafadeen Adeniyi Arisegi, Izuchukwu Obasi, Oluchi Solomon-Anucha
Abstract:
Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is prevalent in patients with diabetes mellitus and a significant risk for major cardiovascular events. Identifying its burden and peculiarities is crucial to preventing complications among those at risk. Aim: This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and predictors of metabolic syndrome among diabetes clinic attendees in Sokoto, Nigeria. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 365 patients with type 2 diabetes attending the diabetes clinic of Specialist Hospital, Sokoto, Nigeria. A structured questionnaire was used to obtain data on the respondents’ socio-demographic variables, treatment history, and lifestyle. Blood pressure and anthropometric measurements (including weight, height, and waist circumference) were done for the patients. Likewise, biochemical assessment (including fasting plasma glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and triglyceride (TG) was done. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III). Data were analyzed using the IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25. Results: The ages of the patients ranged from 30 to 78 (mean = 50.9 ±11.7) years. The overall prevalence of MetS was 57.3%, with a higher prevalence in females (68.1%) than males (43.0%). The most common components of MetS observed were hypertension (69.2%), and elevated fasting plasma glucose (65.7%); while the predictors of MetS were age > 50 years (OR 6.960, 95% CI: 3.836-12.628, p < 0.001), female sex (OR 2.300, 95% CI: 1.355-3.903, p = 0.002), physical activity (OR 0.214, 95% CI: 0.126-0.363, p < 0.001), and overweight/obesity (OR 3.356, 95% CI: 1.838-6.127, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is prevalent among patients with type 2 diabetes in Sokoto, Nigeria, and the predictors were age > 50 years, female sex, physical activity, and overweight/obesity. Diabetes care providers should screen their patients for MetS to prevent adverse cardiovascular events.Keywords: prevalence, predictors, metabolic syndrome, diabetes
Procedia PDF Downloads 1441703 Forecasting Stock Indexes Using Bayesian Additive Regression Tree
Authors: Darren Zou
Abstract:
Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock
Procedia PDF Downloads 1301702 Development, Evaluation and Scale-Up of a Mental Health Care Plan (MHCP) in Nepal
Authors: Nagendra P. Luitel, Mark J. D. Jordans
Abstract:
Globally, there is a significant gap between the number of individuals in need of mental health care and those who actually receive treatment. The evidence is accumulating that mental health services can be delivered effectively by primary health care workers through community-based programs and task-sharing approaches. Changing the role of specialist mental health workers from service delivery to building clinical capacity of the primary health care (PHC) workers could help in reducing treatment gap in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We developed a comprehensive mental health care plan in 2012 and evaluated its feasibility and effectiveness over the past three years. Initially, a mixed method formative study was conducted for the development of mental health care plan (MHCP). Routine monitoring and evaluation data, including client flow and reports of satisfaction, were obtained from beneficiaries (n=135) during the pilot-testing phase. Repeated community survey (N=2040); facility detection survey (N=4704) and the cohort study (N=576) were conducted for evaluation of the MHCP. The resulting MHCP consists of twelve packages divided over the community, health facility, and healthcare organization platforms. Detection of mental health problems increased significantly after introducing MHCP. Service implementation data support the real-life applicability of the MHCP, with reasonable treatment uptake. Currently, MHCP has been implemented in the entire Chitwan district where over 1400 people (438 people with depression, 406 people with psychosis, 181 people with epilepsy, 360 people with alcohol use disorder and 51 others) have received mental health services from trained health workers. Key barriers were identified and addressed, namely dissatisfaction with privacy, perceived burden among health workers, high drop-out rates and continue the supply of medicines. The results indicated that involvement of PHC workers in detection and management of mental health problems is an effective strategy to minimize treatment gap on mental health care in Nepal.Keywords: mental health, Nepal, primary care, treatment gap
Procedia PDF Downloads 2951701 Revolutionizing Product Packaging: The Impact of Transparent Graded Lanes on Ketchup and Edible Oils Containers on Consumer Behavior
Authors: Saeid Asghari
Abstract:
The growing interest in sustainability and healthy lifestyles has stimulated the development of solutions that promote mindful consumption and healthier choices. One such solution is the use of transparent graded lanes in product packaging, which enables consumers to visually track their product consumption and encourages portion control. However, the extent to which this packaging affects consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards a product or brand, as well as the effectiveness of messaging on the graded lanes, remains unclear. The research aims to examine the impact of transparent graded lanes on consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards products or brands in the context of the Janbo chain supermarket in Tehran, Iran, focusing on Ketchup and edible oils containers. A representative sample of 720 respondents is selected using quota sampling based on sex, age, and financial status. The study assesses the effect of messaging on the graded lanes in enhancing consumer recall and recognition of the product at the time of purchase, increasing repeat purchases, and fostering long-term relationships with customers. Furthermore, the potential outcomes of using transparent graded lanes, including the promotion of healthy consumption habits and the reduction of food waste, are also considered. The findings and results can inform the development of effective messaging strategies for graded lanes and suggest ways to enhance consumer engagement with product packaging. Moreover, the study's outcomes can contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable consumption and healthy lifestyles, highlighting the potential role of packaging innovations in promoting these values. We used four theories (social cognitive theory, self-perception theory, nudge theory, and marketing and consumer behavior) to examine the effect of these transparent graded lanes on consumer behavior. The conceptual model integrates the use of transparent graded lanes, consumer behavior, trust and loyalty, messaging, and promotion of healthy consumption habits. The study aims to provide insights into how transparent graded lanes can promote mindful consumption, increase consumer recognition and recall of the product, and foster long-term relationships with customers. Findings suggest that the use of transparent graded lanes on Ketchup and edible oils containers can have a positive impact on consumer behavior, trust, and loyalty towards a product or brand, as well as promote mindful consumption and healthier choices. The messaging on the graded lanes is also found to be effective in promoting recall and recognition of the product at the time of purchase and encouraging repeat purchases. However, the impact of transparent graded lanes may be limited by factors such as cultural norms, personal values, and financial status. Broadly speaking, the investigation provides valuable insights into the potential benefits and challenges of using transparent graded lanes in product packaging, as well as effective strategies for promoting healthy consumption habits and building long-term relationships with customers.Keywords: packaging customer behavior, purchase, brand loyalty, healthy consumption
Procedia PDF Downloads 2531700 Nontraditional Online Student Perceptions of Student Success Conditions
Authors: Carrie Prendergast, Lisa Bortman
Abstract:
The focus of this presentation will be on non-traditional (adult) students as they seek their Bachelors’ degrees online. This presentation will specifically examine nontraditional online student perceptions of Tinto’s success conditions: expectations, support, assessment, and engagement. Expectations include those of the student, the faculty and the institution. Support includes academic, social, and financial support. Feedback and assessment encompasses feedback in the classroom, upon entry, and on an institutional level. The fourth success condition is involvement or engagement of students with their peers and faculty in both academic and social contexts. This program will review and discuss a rich, detailed description of the lived experience of the nontraditional online student to add to the paucity of research on this understudied population and guide higher education professionals in supporting this growing population of students.Keywords: adult students, online education, student success, vincent tinto
Procedia PDF Downloads 3731699 Exposure to Ionizing Radiation Resulting from the Chernobyl Fallout and Childhood Cardiac Arrhythmia: A Population Based Study
Authors: Geraldine Landon, Enora Clero, Jean-Rene Jourdain
Abstract:
In 2005, the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN, France) launched a research program named EPICE (acronym for 'Evaluation of Pathologies potentially Induced by CaEsium') to collect scientific information on non-cancer effects possibly induced by chronic exposures to low doses of ionizing radiation with the view of addressing a question raised by several French NGOs related to health consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in children. The implementation of the program was preceded by a pilot phase to ensure that the project would be feasible and determine the conditions for implementing an epidemiological study on a population of several thousand children. The EPICE program focused on childhood cardiac arrhythmias started in May 2009 for 4 years, in partnership with the Russian Bryansk Diagnostic Center. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of cardiac arrhythmias in the Bryansk oblast (depending on the contamination of the territory and the caesium-137 whole-body burden) and to assess whether caesium-137 was or not a factor associated with the onset of cardiac arrhythmias. To address these questions, a study bringing together 18 152 children aged 2 to 18 years was initiated; each child received three medical examinations (ECG, echocardiography, and caesium-137 whole-body activity measurement) and some of them were given with a 24-hour Holter monitoring and blood tests. The findings of the study, currently submitted to an international journal justifying that no results can be given at this step, allow us to answer clearly to the issue of radiation-induced childhood arrhythmia, a subject that has been debated for many years. Our results will be certainly helpful for health professionals responsible for the monitoring of population exposed to the releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant and also useful for future comparative study in children exposed to ionizing radiation in other contexts, such as cancer radiation therapies.Keywords: Caesium-137, cardiac arrhythmia, Chernobyl, children
Procedia PDF Downloads 2451698 Copula Markov Switching Multifractal Models for Forecasting Value-at-Risk
Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya
Abstract:
In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 1651697 Derivation of Fractional Black-Scholes Equations Driven by Fractional G-Brownian Motion and Their Application in European Option Pricing
Authors: Changhong Guo, Shaomei Fang, Yong He
Abstract:
In this paper, fractional Black-Scholes models for the European option pricing were established based on the fractional G-Brownian motion (fGBm), which generalizes the concepts of the classical Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion and the G-Brownian motion, and that can be used to be a tool for considering the long range dependence and uncertain volatility for the financial markets simultaneously. A generalized fractional Black-Scholes equation (FBSE) was derived by using the Taylor’s series of fractional order and the theory of absence of arbitrage. Finally, some explicit option pricing formulas for the European call option and put option under the FBSE were also solved, which extended the classical option pricing formulas given by F. Black and M. Scholes.Keywords: European option pricing, fractional Black-Scholes equations, fractional g-Brownian motion, Taylor's series of fractional order, uncertain volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 1631696 Applying Napoleoni's 'Shell-State' Concept to Jihadist Organisations's Rise in Mali, Nigeria and Syria/Iraq, 2011-2015
Authors: Francesco Saverio Angiò
Abstract:
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant / Syria (ISIL/S), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, also known as ‘Boko Haram’ (BH), have fought successfully against Syria and Iraq, Mali, Nigeria’s government, respectively. According to Napoleoni, the ‘shell-state’ concept can explain the economic dimension and the financing model of the ISIL insurgency. However, she argues that AQIM and BH did not properly plan their financial model. Consequently, her idea would not be suitable to these groups. Nevertheless, AQIM and BH’s economic performances and their (short) territorialisation suggest that their financing models respond to a well-defined strategy, which they were able to adapt to new circumstances. Therefore, Napoleoni’s idea of ‘shell-state’ can be applied to the three jihadist armed groups. In the last five years, together with other similar entities, ISIL/S, AQIM and BH have been fighting against governments with insurgent tactics and terrorism acts, conquering and ruling a quasi-state; a physical space they presented as legitimate territorial entity, thanks to a puritan version of the Islamic law. In these territories, they have exploited the traditional local economic networks. In addition, they have contributed to the development of legal and illegal transnational business activities. They have also established a justice system and created an administrative structure to supply services. Napoleoni’s ‘shell-state’ can describe the evolution of ISIL/S, AQIM and BH, which has switched from an insurgency to a proto or a quasi-state entity, enjoying a significant share of power over territories and populations. Napoleoni first developed and applied the ‘Shell-state’ concept to describe the nature of groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), before using it to explain the expansion of ISIL. However, her original conceptualisation emphasises on the economic dimension of the rise of the insurgency, focusing on the ‘business’ model and the insurgents’ financing management skills, which permits them to turn into an organisation. However, the idea of groups which use, coordinate and grab some territorial economic activities (at the same time, encouraging new criminal ones), can also be applied to administrative, social, infrastructural, legal and military levels of their insurgency, since they contribute to transform the insurgency to the same extent the economic dimension does. In addition, according to Napoleoni’s view, the ‘shell-state’ prism is valid to understand the ISIL/S phenomenon, because the group has carefully planned their financial steps. Napoleoni affirmed that ISIL/S carries out activities in order to promote their conversion from a group relying on external sponsors to an entity that can penetrate and condition local economies. On the contrary, ‘shell-state’ could not be applied to AQIM or BH, which are acting more like smugglers. Nevertheless, despite its failure to control territories, as ISIL has been able to do, AQIM and BH have responded strategically to their economic circumstances and have defined specific dynamics to ensure a flow of stable funds. Therefore, Napoleoni’s theory is applicable.Keywords: shell-state, jihadist insurgency, proto or quasi-state entity economic planning, strategic financing
Procedia PDF Downloads 3521695 Drivers of the Performance of Members of a Social Incubator Considering the Values of Work: A Qualitative Study with Social Entrepreneurs
Authors: Leticia Lengler, Vania Estivalete, Vivian Flores Costa, Tais De Andrade, Lisiane Fellini Faller
Abstract:
Social entrepreneurship has emerged and driven a new development perspective, and as the literature mentions, it is based on innovation, and mainly, on the creation of social value, rather than personal wealth and shareholders. In this field of study, one of the focuses of discussion refers to the distinct characteristics of the individuals responsible for socially directed initiatives, named as social entrepreneurs. To contribute to this perspective, the present study aims to identify the values related to work that guide the performance of social entrepreneurs, members of enterprises that have developed themselves within a social incubator at a federal institution of higher education in Brazil. Each person's value system is present in different facets of his life, manifesting himself in his choices and in the way he conducts the relationship with other people in society. Especially the values of work, the focus of this research, play a significant role in organizational studies, since they are considered one of the important guiding principles of the behavior of individuals in the work environment. Regarding the method of the study, a descriptive and qualitative research was carried out. In the data collection, 24 entrepreneurs, members of five different enterprises belonging to the social incubator, were interviewed. The research instrument consisted of three open questions, which could be answered with the support of a "disc of values", an artifact organized to clearly demonstrate the values of the work to the respondents. The analysis of the interviews took into account the categories defined a priori, based on the model proposed by previous authors who validated these constructs within their research contexts, contemplating the following dimensions: Self-determination and stimulation; Safety; Conformity; Universalism and benevolence; Achievement; and Power. It should be noted that, in order to provide a better understanding of the interviewees, in the "disc of values" used in the research, these dimensions were represented by the objectives that define them, being respectively: Challenge; Financial independence; Commitment; Welfare of others; Personal success; And Power. Some preliminary results show that, as guiding principles of the investigation, priority is given to work values related to Self-determination and stimulation, Conformity and Universalism and benevolence. Such findings point to the importance given by these individuals to independent thinking and acting, as well as to novelty and constant challenge. Still, they demonstrate the appreciation of commitment to their enterprise, the people who make it and the quality of their work. They also point to the relevance of the possibility of contributing to the greater social good, that is, of the search for the well-being of close people and of society, as it is implied in models of social entrepreneurship coming from literature. With a lower degree of priority, the values denominated Safety and Realization, as the financial question at work and the search for satisfaction and personal success, through the use of socially recognized skills were mentioned aspects with little emphasis by social entrepreneurs. The Power value was not considered as guiding principle of the work for the respondents.Keywords: qualitative study, social entrepreneur, social incubator, values of work
Procedia PDF Downloads 2601694 Long-term Care Facility for the Elderly and Its Relationship with Energy Efficiency
Authors: Gabriela Sardinha Pacheco
Abstract:
In a context of elderly population growth, the need to provide high quality infrastructure and services to these people becomes even more evident. The act of designing a space dedicated to elderly people goes beyond the concept of well-being and reaches to a point of evaluating and changing the way which society sees this part of the population as well as how it can build a relationship with energy efficiency. In this context, the care facilities for elderly have an extremely important role to provide this infrastructure to the population. A common issue is that, for many times, these facilities face financial issues, and the full operation of the establishment can be impacted. The intention of this work is to develop a project in which the energy efficiency measures can be lived daily and that the residents of the institution can participate actively, directly, or indirectly in the construction of this relationship. The use of energy efficiency strategies should become a natural process when thinking about buildings as it is an essential step to provide increased well-being, climate change mitigation, and cost reduction.Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental comfort, long-term care facility, well-being
Procedia PDF Downloads 571693 Spatially Random Sampling for Retail Food Risk Factors Study
Authors: Guilan Huang
Abstract:
In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.Keywords: geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factor study, spatially random sampling
Procedia PDF Downloads 3501692 Epidemiological Correlates of Adherence to Anti-Hypertensive Treatment in Primary Health Care Setting of Ludhiana, Punjab
Authors: Sangeeta Girdhar, Amanat Grewal, Nahush Bansal
Abstract:
Introduction: There is an increasing burden of hypertension in India. The morbidity and mortality arising from complications are mainly due to non-adherence to medication, unhealthy dietary habits, and lack of physical activity. Non-adherence is a well-recognised factor contributing to inadequate control of high blood pressure. Adherence to pharmacotherapy for hypertension varies from 43% to 88%. Non-adherence is influenced by various socio-demographic factors. Understanding these factors is useful in managing non-adherence. Therefore, the study was planned to determine adherence among hypertensives and factors associated with non-adherence to treatment. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted at Urban Health Training Centre of Dayanand Medical College and Hospital Ludhiana. Patients attending the OPD over a period of 3 months were included in the study. Prior ethical approval was obtained, and informed consent was taken from subjects. A predesigned semi-structured questionnaire was applied, which included socio-demographic profile, treatment-seeking behaviour, adherence to the antihypertensive medication, lifestyle factors (intake of alcohol, smoking, consumption of junk food, high salt intake) contributing to the development of the disease. Reasons for non-adherence to the therapy were also explored. Data was entered into excel, and SPSS 26 version was used for analysis. Results: A total of 186 individuals were interviewed. Out of these, 113 females (60.8%) and 73 males (39.2%) participated in the study. Mean age of participants was 60.9 ± 10.7 years. Adherence to anti-hypertensive treatment was found in 68.3% of the participants. It was observed that adherence was more in literate individuals as compared to illiterate (p value- 0.78). Adherence was lower among smokers (33.3%) and alcohol consumers (53.8%) as compared to non-users (69.4% and 70.6%, respectively). The predominant reasons for skipping medications were discontinuing medication when feeling well, forgetfulness and unawareness. Conclusion: There is a need to generate awareness regarding the importance of adherence to therapy among patients. Intensive health education and counselling of the patients is the need of the hour.Keywords: hypertension, anti-hypertensive, adherence, counselling
Procedia PDF Downloads 901691 Comparison of Risk and Return on Trading and Profit Sharing Based Financing Contract in Indonesian Islamic Bank
Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi
Abstract:
Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 3781690 Requirements for a Shared Management of State-Owned Building in the Archaeological Park of Pompeii
Authors: Maria Giovanna Pacifico
Abstract:
Maintenance, in Italy, is not yet a consolidated practice despite the benefits that could come from. Among the main reasons, there are the lack of financial resources and personnel in the public administration and a general lack of knowledge about how to activate and to manage a prevented and programmed maintenance. The experimentation suggests that users and tourists could be involved in the maintenance process from the knowledge phase to the monitoring ones by using mobile devices. The goal is to increase the quality of Facility Management for cultural heritage, prioritizing usage needs, and limiting interference between the key stakeholders. The method simplifies the consolidated procedures for the Information Systems, avoiding a loss in terms of quality and amount of information by focusing on the users' requirements: management economy, user safety, accessibility, and by receiving feedback information to define a framework that will lead to predictive maintenance. This proposal was designed to be tested in the Archaeological Park of Pompeii on the state property asset.Keywords: asset maintenance, key stakeholders, Pompeii, user requirement
Procedia PDF Downloads 1251689 Cost-Effective Hybrid Cloud Framework for Higher Educational Institutes
Authors: Shah Muhammad Butt, Ahmed Masaud Ansair
Abstract:
Present financial crisis in Higher Educational Institutes (HEIs) is causing lots of problems such as considerable budget cuts, which makes it difficult to meet the ever growing IT based research and learning needs. Institutions are rapidly planning and promoting cloud based approaches for their academic and research needs. A cost-effective hybrid cloud framework for HEIs will provide educational services for campus or intercampus communication. Hybrid cloud framework comprises private and public cloud approaches. This paper will propose the framework based on the Open Source Cloud (OpenNebula for Virtualization, Eucalyptus for Infrastructure and Aneka for programming development environment) combined with CSPs services which are delivered to the end-user via the internet from public clouds such as Google, Microsoft, Zoho, and Salesforce.Keywords: educational services, hybrid campus cloud, open source, higher educational institutes
Procedia PDF Downloads 4821688 The Nature and Impact of Trojan Horses in Cybersecurity
Authors: Mehrab Faraghti
Abstract:
Trojan horses, a form of malware masquerading as legitimate software, pose significant cybersecurity threats. These malicious programs exploit user trust, infiltrate systems, and can lead to data breaches, financial loss, and compromised privacy. This paper explores the mechanisms through which Trojan horses operate, including delivery methods such as phishing and software vulnerabilities. It categorizes various types of Trojan horses and their specific impacts on individuals and organizations. Additionally, the research highlights the evolution of Trojan threats and the importance of user awareness and proactive security measures. By analyzing case studies of notable Trojan attacks, this study identifies common vulnerabilities that can be exploited and offers insights into effective countermeasures, including behavioral analysis, anomaly detection, and robust incident response strategies. The findings emphasize the need for comprehensive cybersecurity education and the implementation of advanced security protocols to mitigate the risks associated with Trojan horses.Keywords: Trojan horses, cybersecurity, malware, data breach
Procedia PDF Downloads 111687 Curative Role of Bromoenol Lactone, an Inhibitor of Phospholipase A2 Enzyme, during Cigarette Smoke Condensate Induced Anomalies in Lung Epithelium
Authors: Subodh Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma, Gaurav Kaushik, Pramod Avti, Phulen Sarma, Bikash Medhi, Krishan Lal Khanduja
Abstract:
Background: It is well known that cigarette smoke is one of the causative factors in various lung diseases especially cancer. Carcinogens and oxidant molecules present in cigarette smoke not only damage the cellular constituents (lipids, proteins, DNA) but may also regulate the molecular pathways involved in inflammation and cancer. Continuous oxidative stress caused by the constituents of cigarette smoke leads to higher PhospholipaseA₂ (PLA₂) activity, resulting in elevated levels of secondary metabolites whose role is well defined in cancer. To reduce the burden of chronic inflammation as well as oxidative stress, and higher levels of secondary metabolites, we checked the curative potential of PLA₂ inhibitor Bromoenol Lactone (BEL) during continuous exposure of cigarette smoke condensate (CSC). Aim: To check the therapeutic potential of Bromoenol Lactone (BEL), an inhibitor of PhospholipaseA₂s, in pathways of CSC-induced changes in type I and type II alveolar epithelial cells. Methods: Effect of BEL on CSC-induced PLA2 activity were checked using colorimetric assay, cellular toxicity using cell viability assay, membrane integrity using fluorescein di-acetate (FDA) uptake assay, reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and apoptosis markers through flow cytometry, and cellular regulation using MAPKinases levels, in lung epithelium. Results: BEL significantly mimicked CSC-induced PLA₂ activity, ROS levels, apoptosis, and kinases level whereas improved cellular viability and membrane integrity. Conclusions: Current observations revealed that BEL may be a potential therapeutic agent during Cigarette smoke-induced anomalies in lung epithelium.Keywords: cigarette smoke condensate, phospholipase A₂, oxidative stress, alveolar epithelium, bromoenol lactone
Procedia PDF Downloads 1891686 Identification of Factors Influencing Costs in Green Projects
Authors: Nazirah Zainul Abidin, Nurul Zahirah Mokhtar Azizi
Abstract:
Cost has always been the leading concern in green building development. The perception that construction cost for green building is higher than conventional buildings has only made the discussion of green building cost more difficult. Understanding the factors that will influence the cost of green construction is expected to shed light into what makes green construction more or at par with conventional projects, or perhaps, where cost can be optimised. This paper identifies the elements of cost before shifting the attention to the influencing factors. Findings from past studies uncovered various factors related to cost which are grouped into five focal themes i.e. awareness, knowledge, financial, technical, and government support. A conceptual framework is produced in a form of a flower diagram indicating the cost influencing factors of green building development. These factors were found to be both physical and non-physical aspects of a project. The framework provides ground for the next stage of research that is to further explore how these factors influence the project cost and decision making.Keywords: green project, factors influencing cost, hard cost, soft cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 3451685 Digital Individual Benefit Statement: The Use of a Triangulation Methodology to Design a Digital Platform for Switzerland
Authors: Catherine Equey Balzli
Abstract:
Old age retirement pensions are an important concern among the Swiss but estimating one’s income after retirement is difficult due to the Swiss insurance system’s complexity. This project’s aim is to prepare for developing a digital platform that will allow individuals to plan for retirement in a simplified manner. The main objective of the platform will be to give individuals the tools to check that their savings and retirement benefits will allow them to continue the lifestyle to which they are accustomed once they are retired. The research results from qualitative (focus group) and quantitative (survey) methodologies, recommend the scope and functionalities for a digital platform to be developed. A main outcome is the need to limit the platform’s scope to old-age pension only (excluding survivors’ or disability pensions, for instance). Furthermore, an outcome regarding the functionalities is the proposition of scenarios such as early retirement, changes to income, or modifications to personal status. The development of the digital platform will be a subsequent project.Keywords: benefit statement, digital platform, retirement financial planning, social insurance
Procedia PDF Downloads 112