Search results for: Ahmet Faruk Akyuz

Authors: Faruk Ozdemir, Roy Kalawsky, Peter Hubbard

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of RUL provides a basis for effective predictive maintenance, reducing unexpected downtime for industrial equipment. However, while models such as the Random Forest have effective predictive capabilities, they are the so-called ‘black box’ models, where interpretability is at a threshold to make critical diagnostic decisions involved in industries related to aviation. The purpose of this work is to present a prognostic framework that embeds Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques in order to provide essential transparency in Machine Learning methods' decision-making mechanisms based on sensor data, with the objective of procuring actionable insights for the aviation industry. Sensor readings have been gathered from critical equipment such as turbofan jet engine and landing gear, and the prediction of the RUL is done by a Random Forest model. It involves steps such as data gathering, feature engineering, model training, and evaluation. These critical components’ datasets are independently trained and evaluated by the models. While suitable predictions are served, their performance metrics are reasonably good; such complex models, however obscure reasoning for the predictions made by them and may even undermine the confidence of the decision-maker or the maintenance teams. This is followed by global explanations using SHAP and local explanations using LIME in the second phase to bridge the gap in reliability within industrial contexts. These tools analyze model decisions, highlighting feature importance and explaining how each input variable affects the output. This dual approach offers a general comprehension of the overall model behavior and detailed insight into specific predictions. The proposed framework, in its third component, incorporates the techniques of causal analysis in the form of Granger causality tests in order to move beyond correlation toward causation. This will not only allow the model to predict failures but also present reasons, from the key sensor features linked to possible failure mechanisms to relevant personnel. The causality between sensor behaviors and equipment failures creates much value for maintenance teams due to better root cause identification and effective preventive measures. This step contributes to the system being more explainable. Surrogate Several simple models, including Decision Trees and Linear Models, can be used in yet another stage to approximately represent the complex Random Forest model. These simpler models act as backups, replicating important jobs of the original model's behavior. If the feature explanations obtained from the surrogate model are cross-validated with the primary model, the insights derived would be more reliable and provide an intuitive sense of how the input variables affect the predictions. We then create an iterative explainable feedback loop, where the knowledge learned from the explainability methods feeds back into the training of the models. This feeds into a cycle of continuous improvement both in model accuracy and interpretability over time. By systematically integrating new findings, the model is expected to adapt to changed conditions and further develop its prognosis capability. These components are then presented to the decision-makers through the development of a fully transparent condition monitoring and alert system. The system provides a holistic tool for maintenance operations by leveraging RUL predictions, feature importance scores, persistent sensor threshold values, and autonomous alert mechanisms. Since the system will provide explanations for the predictions given, along with active alerts, the maintenance personnel can make informed decisions on their end regarding correct interventions to extend the life of the critical machinery.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, explainable artificial intelligence, prognostic, RUL, machine learning, turbofan engines, C-MAPSS dataset

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Authors: Demet Devrimsel Dogan, Ecem Deniz Kirkpantur, Muharrem Dogan, Ahmet Aykut, Ebru Unal Akoglu, Ozge Ecmel Onur

Abstract:

Introduction: Median Arcuate Ligament Syndrome (MALS) is a rare cause of chronic abdominal pain due to external compression of the celiac trunk by a fibrous arch that unites diaphragmatic crura on each side of the aortic hiatus. While 10-24% of the population may suffer from compression of celiac trunk, it rarely causes patients to develop symptoms. The typical clinical triad of symptoms includes postprandial epigastric pain, weight loss and vomiting. The diagnosis can be made using thin section multi-detector computed tomography (CT) scans which delineate the ligament and the compressed vessel. The treatment of MALS is aimed at relieving the compression of the celiac artery to restore adequate blood flow through the vessel and neurolysis to address chronic pain. Case: A 68-year-old male presented to our clinic with acute postprandial epigastric pain. This was patients’ first attack, and the pain was the worst pain of his life. The patient did not have any other symptoms like nausea, vomiting, chest pain or dyspnea. In his medical history, the patient has had an ischemic cerebrovascular stroke 5 years ago which he recovered with no sequel, and he was using 75 mg clopidogrel and 100 mg acetylsalicylic acid. He was not using any other medication and did not have a story of cardiovascular disease. His vital signs were stable (BP:113/72 mmHg, Spo2:97, temperature:36.3°C, HR:90/bpm). In his electrocardiogram, there was ST depression in leads II, III and AVF. In his physical examination, there was only epigastric tenderness, other system examinations were normal. Physical examination through his upper gastrointestinal system showed no bleeding. His laboratory results were as follows: creatinine:1.26 mg/dL, AST:42 U/L, ALT:17 U/L, amylase:78 U/L, lipase:26 U/L, troponin:10.3 pg/ml, WBC:28.9 K/uL, Hgb:12.7 gr/dL, Plt:335 K/uL. His serial high-sensitive troponin levels were also within normal limits, his echocardiography showed no segmental wall motion abnormalities, an acute myocardial infarction was excluded. In his abdominal ultrasound, no pathology was founded. Contrast-enhanced abdominal CT and CT angiography reported ‘thickened diaphragmatic cruras are compressing and stenosing truncus celiacus superior, this is likely compatible with MALS’. The patient was consulted to general surgery, and they admitted the patient for laparoscopic ligament release. Results: MALS is a syndrome that causes postprandial pain, nausea and vomiting as its most common symptoms. Affected patients are normally young, slim women between the ages of 30 and 50 who have undergone extensive examinations to find the source of their symptoms. To diagnose MALS, other underlying pathologies should initially be excluded. The gold standard is aortic angiography. Although diagnosis and treatment of MALS are unclear, symptom resolution has been achieved with multiple surgical modalities, including open, laparoscopic or robotic ligament release as well as celiac ganglionectomy, which often requires celiac artery revascularisation.

Keywords: differential diagnosis, epigastric pain, median arcuate ligament syndrome, celiac trunk

Procedia PDF Downloads 261