Search results for: future generation’s foredoom
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10105

Search results for: future generation’s foredoom

8395 Rethinking the Concept of Classroom Management during COVID-19 Times: An EFL Perspective

Authors: Hadjer Chellia

Abstract:

In the light of the recent global pandemic, different issues in educational research seem to invite careful considerations. Following this perspective, this study sets out to question the concept of classroom management in an EFL higher education context during Covid-19. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of their experiences, 6 EFL teachers from different Algerian universities took part in semi-structured interviews. The main emerging themes revealed that EFL teachers have different pedagogical practices in relation to classroom management during the global crisis than those of normal times. In relation to flexible education theory, the teachers’ experiences suggest flexible classroom management during Covid-19; flexibility in the teaching methods, approach and design, flexibility in time, flexibility in space and pace (speed), flexibility in assessment modes and flexibility in coping with students’ well-being. The flexibility awareness helps them to develop readiness towards the future, mainly in terms of maintaining an appropriate pedagogy to face the future crisis. In terms of theoretical concepts, working on classroom management under unusual circumstances in relation to flexible education helped come out with the concept of flexible classroom management (FCM) and virtual classroom management (VCM). It is then important for educators and researchers to rethink different pedagogical concepts and mind a careful application in the case of unusual times.

Keywords: Covid-19, EFL educators, flexible classroom management, flexible education, virtual classroom management

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
8394 The Role of Optimization and Machine Learning in e-Commerce Logistics in 2030

Authors: Vincenzo Capalbo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuele Manni

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Global e-commerce sales have reached unprecedented levels in the past few years. As this trend is only predicted to go up as we continue into the ’20s, new challenges will be faced by companies when planning and controlling e-commerce logistics. In this paper, we survey the related literature on Optimization and Machine Learning as well as on combined methodologies. We also identify the distinctive features of next-generation planning algorithms - namely scalability, model-and-run features and learning capabilities - that will be fundamental to cope with the scale and complexity of logistics in the next decade.

Keywords: e-commerce, hardware acceleration, logistics, machine learning, mixed integer programming, optimization

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8393 Direct Current Grids in Urban Planning for More Sustainable Urban Energy and Mobility

Authors: B. Casper

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The energy transition towards renewable energies and drastically reduced carbon dioxide emissions in Germany drives multiple sectors into a transformation process. Photovoltaic and on-shore wind power are predominantly feeding in the low and medium-voltage grids. The electricity grid is not laid out to allow an increasing feed-in of power in low and medium voltage grids. Electric mobility is currently in the run-up phase in Germany and still lacks a significant amount of charging stations. The additional power demand by e-mobility cannot be supplied by the existing electric grids in most cases. The future demands in heating and cooling of commercial and residential buildings are increasingly generated by heat-pumps. Yet the most important part in the energy transition is the storage of surplus energy generated by photovoltaic and wind power sources. Water electrolysis is one way to store surplus energy known as power-to-gas. With the vehicle-to-grid technology, the upcoming fleet of electric cars could be used as energy storage to stabilize the grid. All these processes use direct current (DC). The demand of bi-directional flow and higher efficiency in the future grids can be met by using DC. The Flexible Electrical Networks (FEN) research campus at RWTH Aachen investigates interdisciplinary about the advantages, opportunities, and limitations of DC grids. This paper investigates the impact of DC grids as a technological innovation on the urban form and urban life. Applying explorative scenario development, analyzation of mapped open data sources on grid networks and research-by-design as a conceptual design method, possible starting points for a transformation to DC medium voltage grids could be found. Several fields of action have emerged in which DC technology could become a catalyst for future urban development: energy transition in urban areas, e-mobility, and transformation of the network infrastructure. The investigation shows a significant potential to increase renewable energy production within cities with DC grids. The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles will predominantly be using DC in the future because fast and ultra fast charging can only be achieved with DC. Our research shows that e-mobility, combined with autonomous driving has the potential to change the urban space and urban logistics fundamentally. Furthermore, there are possible win-win-win solutions for the municipality, the grid operator and the inhabitants: replacing overhead transmission lines by underground DC cables to open up spaces in contested urban areas can lead to a positive example of how the energy transition can contribute to a more sustainable urban structure. The outlook makes clear that target grid planning and urban planning will increasingly need to be synchronized.

Keywords: direct current, e-mobility, energy transition, grid planning, renewable energy, urban planning

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8392 Metagenomics Analysis of Bacteria in Sorghum Using next Generation Sequencing

Authors: Kedibone Masenya, Memory Tekere, Jasper Rees

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Sorghum is an important cereal crop in the world. In particular, it has attracted breeders due to capacity to serve as food, feed, fiber and bioenergy crop. Like any other plant, sorghum hosts a variety of microbes, which can either, have a neutral, negative and positive influence on the plant. In the current study, regions (V3/V4) of 16 S rRNA were targeted to extensively assess bacterial multitrophic interactions in the phyllosphere of sorghum. The results demonstrated that the presence of a pathogen has a significant effect on the endophytic bacterial community. Understanding these interactions is key to develop new strategies for plant protection.

Keywords: bacteria, multitrophic, sorghum, target sequencing

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8391 Public Participation in Political Transformation: From the Coup D’etat in 2014 to the Events Leading up to the Proposed Election in 2018 in Thailand

Authors: Pataramon Satalak, Sakrit Isariyanon, Teerapong Puripanik

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This article uses the recent events in Thailand as a case study for examining why democratic transition is necessary during political upheaval to ensure that the people’s power remains unaffected. After seizing power in May 2014, the military, backed by anti-government protestors, selected and established their own system to govern the country. They set up the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) which established a People’s Assembly, aiming to reach a compromise between the conflicting opinions of former, pro-government and anti-government protesters. It plans to achieve this through political reform before returning sovereign power to the people via an election in 2018. If a governmental authority is not representative of the people (e.g. a military government) it does not count as a legitimate government. During the last four years of military government, from May 2014 to January 2018, their rule of Thailand has been widely controversial, specifically regarding their commitment to democracy, human rights violations and their manipulation of the rule of law. Democratic legitimacy relies not only on established mechanisms for public participation (like referendums or elections) but also public participation based on accessible and educational reform (often via NGOs) to ensure that the free and fair will of the people can be expressed. Through their actions over the last three years, the Thai military government has damaged both of these components, impacting future public participation in politics. The authors make some observations about the specific actions the military government has taken to erode the democratic legitimacy of future public participation: the increasing dominance of military courts over civil courts; civil society’s limited involvement in political activities; the drafting of a new constitution and their attempt to master support through referenda and its consequence for delaying organic law-making process; the structure of the legislative powers (Senate and the members of parliament); and the control of people’s basic freedoms of expression, movement and assembly in political activities. One clear consequence of the military government’s specific actions over the last three years is the increased uncertainty amongst Thai people that their fundamental freedoms and political rights will be respected in the future. This will directly affect their participation in future democratic processes. The military government’s actions (e.g. their response to the UN representatives) will also have influenced potential international engagement in Thai civil society to help educate disadvantaged people about their rights, and their participation in the political arena. These actions challenge the democratic idea that there should be a checking and balancing of power between people and government. These examples provide evidence that a democratic transition is crucial during any process of political transformation.

Keywords: political tranformation, public participation, Thailand coup d'etat 2014, election 2018

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8390 Isolation and Molecular Characterization of Lytic Bacteriophage against Carbapenem Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae

Authors: Guna Raj Dhungana, Roshan Nepal, Apshara Parajuli, , Archana Maharjan, Shyam K. Mishra, Pramod Aryal, Rajani Malla

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Introduction: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a well-known opportunistic human pathogen, primarily causing healthcare-associated infections. The global emergence of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaeis a major public health burden, which is often extensively multidrug resistant.Thus, because of the difficulty to treat these ‘superbug’ and menace and some term as ‘apocalypse’ of post antibiotics era, an alternative approach to controlling this pathogen is prudent and one of the approaches is phage mediated control and/or treatment. Objective: In this study, we aimed to isolate novel bacteriophage against carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaeand characterize for potential use inphage therapy. Material and Methods: Twenty lytic phages were isolated from river water using double layer agar assay and purified. Biological features, physiochemical characters, burst size, host specificity and activity spectrum of phages were determined. One most potent phage: Phage TU_Kle10O was selected and characterized by electron microscopy. Whole genome sequences of the phage were analyzed for presence/absence of virulent factors, and other lysin genes. Results: Novel phage TU_Kle10O showed multiple host range within own genus and did not induce any BIM up to 5th generation of host’s life cycle. Electron microscopy confirmed that the phage was tailed and belonged to Caudovirales family. Next generation sequencing revealed its genome to be 166.2 Kb. bioinformatical analysis further confirmed that the phage genome ‘did not’ contain any ‘bacterial genes’ within phage genome, which ruled out the concern for transfer of virulent genes. Specific 'lysin’ enzyme was identified phages which could be used as 'antibiotics'. Conclusion: Extensively multidrug resistant bacteria like carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniaecould be treated efficiently by phages.Absence of ‘virulent’ genes of bacterial origin and presence of lysin proteins within phage genome makes phages an excellent candidate for therapeutics.

Keywords: bacteriophage, Klebsiella pneumoniae, MDR, phage therapy, carbapenemase,

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8389 Modelling Pest Immigration into Rape Seed Crops under Past and Future Climate Conditions

Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

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8388 Regional Competitiveness and Innovation in the Tourism Sector: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Analysis

Authors: Sérgio J. Teixeira, João J. Ferreira

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Tourism frequently gets identified as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for expansion on a global scale and hence conveying the importance of attempting to better understand the regional factors of competitiveness prevailing in this sector. This study’s objective essentially strives to provide a mapping of the scientific publications and the intellectual knowledge therein contained while conveying past research trends and identifying potential future lines of research in the fields of regional competitiveness and tourism innovation. This correspondingly deploys a systematic review of the literature in keeping with the bibliometric approach based upon VOSviewer software, with a particular focus on drafting maps for visualising the underlying intellectual structure. This type of analysis encapsulates the number of articles published and their annual number of citations for the period between 1900 and 2016 as registered by the Web of Science database. The results demonstrate how the intellectual structure on regional competitiveness divides essentially into three major categories: regional competitiveness, tourism innovation, and tourism clusters. Thus, the main contribution of this study arises out of identifying the main research trends in this field and the respective shortcomings and specific needs for future scientific research in the field of regional competitiveness and innovation in tourism.

Keywords: regional competitiveness, tourism cluster, bibliometric studies, tourism innovation, systematic review

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8387 Traffic Analysis and Prediction Using Closed-Circuit Television Systems

Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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8386 Identifying the Malaysian Perception on the Self-Build Home Concept: Provision of Affordable Housing for MIG

Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

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It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

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8385 Hot Carrier Photocurrent as a Candidate for an Intrinsic Loss in a Single Junction Solar Cell

Authors: Jonas Gradauskas, Oleksandr Masalskyi, Ihor Zharchenko

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The advancement in improving the efficiency of conventional solar cells toward the Shockley-Queisser limit seems to be slowing down or reaching a point of saturation. The challenges hindering the reduction of this efficiency gap can be categorized into extrinsic and intrinsic losses, with the former being theoretically avoidable. Among the five intrinsic losses, two — the below-Eg loss (resulting from non-absorption of photons with energy below the semiconductor bandgap) and thermalization loss —contribute to approximately 55% of the overall lost fraction of solar radiation at energy bandgap values corresponding to silicon and gallium arsenide. Efforts to minimize the disparity between theoretically predicted and experimentally achieved efficiencies in solar cells necessitate the integration of innovative physical concepts. Hot carriers (HC) present a contemporary approach to addressing this challenge. The significance of hot carriers in photovoltaics is not fully understood. Although their excessive energy is thought to indirectly impact a cell's performance through thermalization loss — where the excess energy heats the lattice, leading to efficiency loss — evidence suggests the presence of hot carriers in solar cells. Despite their exceptionally brief lifespan, tangible benefits arise from their existence. The study highlights direct experimental evidence of hot carrier effect induced by both below- and above-bandgap radiation in a singlejunction solar cell. Photocurrent flowing across silicon and GaAs p-n junctions is analyzed. The photoresponse consists, on the whole, of three components caused by electron-hole pair generation, hot carriers, and lattice heating. The last two components counteract the conventional electron-hole generation-caused current required for successful solar cell operation. Also, a model of the temperature coefficient of the voltage change of the current–voltage characteristic is used to obtain the hot carrier temperature. The distribution of cold and hot carriers is analyzed with regard to the potential barrier height of the p-n junction. These discoveries contribute to a better understanding of hot carrier phenomena in photovoltaic devices and are likely to prompt a reevaluation of intrinsic losses in solar cells.

Keywords: solar cell, hot carriers, intrinsic losses, efficiency, photocurrent

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8384 Sorghum Resilience and Sustainability under Limiting and Non-limiting Conditions of Water and Nitrogen

Authors: Muhammad Tanveer Altaf, Mehmet Bedir, Waqas Liaqat, Gönül Cömertpay, Volkan Çatalkaya, Celaluddin Barutçular, Nergiz Çoban, Ibrahim Cerit, Muhammad Azhar Nadeem, Tolga Karaköy, Faheem Shehzad Baloch

Abstract:

Food production needs to be almost double by 2050 in order to feed around 9 billion people around the Globe. Plant production mostly relies on fertilizers, which also have one of the main roles in environmental pollution. In addition to this, climatic conditions are unpredictable, and the earth is expected to face severe drought conditions in the future. Therefore, water and fertilizers, especially nitrogen are considered as main constraints for future food security. To face these challenges, developing integrative approaches for germplasm characterization and selecting the resilient genotypes performing under limiting conditions is very crucial for effective breeding to meet the food requirement under climatic change scenarios. This study is part of the European Research Area Network (ERANET) project for the characterization of the diversity panel of 172 sorghum accessions and six hybrids as control cultivars under limiting (+N/-H2O, -N/+H2O) and non-limiting conditions (+N+H2O). This study was planned to characterize the sorghum diversity in relation to resource Use Efficiency (RUE), with special attention on harnessing the interaction between genotype and environment (GxE) from a physiological and agronomic perspective. Experiments were conducted at Adana, a Mediterranean climate, with augmented design, and data on various agronomic and physiological parameters were recorded. Plentiful diversity was observed in the sorghum diversity panel and significant variations were seen among the limiting water and nitrogen conditions in comparison with the control experiment. Potential genotypes with the best performance are identified under limiting conditions. Whole genome resequencing was performed for whole germplasm under investigation for diversity analysis. GWAS analysis will be performed using genotypic and phenotypic data and linked markers will be identified. The results of this study will show the adaptation and improvement of sorghum under climate change conditions for future food security.

Keywords: germplasm, sorghum, drought, nitrogen, resources use efficiency, sequencing

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8383 Autonomic Sonar Sensor Fault Manager for Mobile Robots

Authors: Martin Doran, Roy Sterritt, George Wilkie

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NASA, ESA, and NSSC space agencies have plans to put planetary rovers on Mars in 2020. For these future planetary rovers to succeed, they will heavily depend on sensors to detect obstacles. This will also become of vital importance in the future, if rovers become less dependent on commands received from earth-based control and more dependent on self-configuration and self-decision making. These planetary rovers will face harsh environments and the possibility of hardware failure is high, as seen in missions from the past. In this paper, we focus on using Autonomic principles where self-healing, self-optimization, and self-adaption are explored using the MAPE-K model and expanding this model to encapsulate the attributes such as Awareness, Analysis, and Adjustment (AAA-3). In the experimentation, a Pioneer P3-DX research robot is used to simulate a planetary rover. The sonar sensors on the P3-DX robot are used to simulate the sensors on a planetary rover (even though in reality, sonar sensors cannot operate in a vacuum). Experiments using the P3-DX robot focus on how our software system can be adapted with the loss of sonar sensor functionality. The autonomic manager system is responsible for the decision making on how to make use of remaining ‘enabled’ sonars sensors to compensate for those sonar sensors that are ‘disabled’. The key to this research is that the robot can still detect objects even with reduced sonar sensor capability.

Keywords: autonomic, self-adaption, self-healing, self-optimization

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8382 Towards Developing Social Assessment Tool for Siwan Ecolodge Case Study: Babenshal Ecolodge

Authors: Amr Ali Bayoumi, Ola Ali Bayoumi

Abstract:

The aim of this research is enhancing one of the main aspects (Social Aspect) for developing an eco-lodge in Siwa oasis in Egyptian Western Desert. According to credible weightings built in this research through formal and informal questionnaires, the researcher detected one of the highest credible aspects, 'Social Aspect': through which it carries the maximum priorities among the total environmental and economic categories. From here, the researcher suggested the usage of ethnographic design approach and Space Syntax as observational and computational methods for developing future Eco-lodge in Siwa Oasis. These methods are used to study social spaces of Babenshal eco-lodge as a case study. This hybrid method is considered as a beginning of building Social Assessment Tool (SAT) for ecological tourism buildings located in Siwa as a case of Egyptian Western desert community. Towards livable social spaces, the proposed SAT was planned to be the optimum measurable weightings for social aspect's priorities of future Siwan eco-lodge(s). Finally, recommendations are proposed for enhancing SAT to be more correlated with sensitive desert biome (Siwa Oasis) to be adapted with the continuous social and environmental changes of the oasis.

Keywords: ecolodge, social aspect, space syntax, Siwa Oasis

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8381 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of Upper Guder Catchment, Upper Blue Nile

Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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8380 Survey Paper on Graph Coloring Problem and Its Application

Authors: Prateek Chharia, Biswa Bhusan Ghosh

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Graph coloring is one of the prominent concepts in graph coloring. It can be defined as a coloring of the various regions of the graph such that all the constraints are fulfilled. In this paper various graphs coloring approaches like greedy coloring, Heuristic search for maximum independent set and graph coloring using edge table is described. Graph coloring can be used in various real time applications like student time tabling generation, Sudoku as a graph coloring problem, GSM phone network.

Keywords: graph coloring, greedy coloring, heuristic search, edge table, sudoku as a graph coloring problem

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8379 Exploring the Relationship Between Past and Present Reviews: The Influence of User Generated Content on Future Hotel Guest Experience Perceptions

Authors: Sacha Joseph-Mathews, Leili Javadpour

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In the tourism industry, hoteliers spend millions annually on marketing and positioning efforts for their respective hotels, all in an effort to create a specific image in the minds of the consumer. Yet despite extensive efforts to seduce potential hotel guests with sophisticated advertising messages generated by hotel entities, consumers continue to mistrust corporate branding, preferring instead to place their trust in the reviews of their consumer peers. In today’s complex and cluttered marketplace, online reviews can serve as a mediator for consumers who do not have actual knowledge and experiences with the brand, but are in the process of deciding whether or not to engage in a consumption exercise. Traditionally, consumers have used online reviews as a source of comfort and confirmation of a product/service’s positioning. But today, very few customers make any purchase decisions without first researching existing user reviews, making reviews more of a necessity, rather than a luxury in the purchase decision process. The influence of user generated content (UGC) is amplified in the tourism industry; as more than a third of potential hotel guests will not book a room without first reading a review. As corporate branding becomes less relevant and online reviews become more important, how much of the consumer’s stay expectations are being dictated by existing UGC? Moreover, as hotel guest experience a hotel through the lens of an existing review, how much of their stay and in turn their review, would have been influenced by those reviews that they read? Ultimately, there is the potential for UGC to dictate what potential guests will be most critical about, and or most focused on during their stay. If UGC is a stronger influencer in the purchase decision process than corporate branding, doesn’t it have the potential to dictate, the entire stay experience by influencing the expectations of the guest prior to them arriving on the property? For example, if a hotel is an eco-destination and they focus their branding on their website around sustainability and the retreat nature of the hotel. Yet, guest reviews constantly discuss how dissatisfactory the service and food was with no mention of nature or sustainability, will future reviews then focus primarily on the food? Using text analysis software to examine over 25,000 online reviews, we explore the extent to which new reviews are influenced by wording used in previous reviews for a hotel property, versus content generated by corporate positioning. Additionally, we investigate how distinct hotel related UGC is across different types of tourism destinations. Our findings suggest that UGC can have a greater impact on future reviews, than corporate branding and there is more cohesiveness across UGC of different types of hotel properties than anticipated. A model of User Generated Content Influence is presented and the managerial impact of the power of online reviews to trump corporate branding and shape future user experiences is discussed.

Keywords: user generated content, UGC, corporate branding, online reviews, hotels and tourism

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8378 Regular or Irregular: An Investigation of Medicine Consumption Pattern with Poisson Mixture Model

Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

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Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

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8377 The Mediating Effect of Taxpayers’ Compliance on Internal Business Process-Tax Revenue Relationship: A Case Study at the Directorate General of Taxation in Indonesia

Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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8376 The Use of Eye Tracking in Evaluating the Success of Golfers in Putting

Authors: Klára Gajdošíková

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to examine the quiet eye method and its components using the mobile eye tracking device. Quiet eye training was proven to be beneficial for different sports, including golf. The main idea of this method is to prolong your fixations on a specific place in order to improve your performance. The shot examined in this study is called putt. Its importance is based on its role on a golf course because, many times, it is the last putt that decides whether you win or lose. Quiet eye training helps players be more focused under pressure, control their attention and overall improve their putting success. Six highly skilled golfers with a handicap ranging from - 4 to + 4, aged 23 to 26, participated in a pilot study with the usage of an eye-tracking device. The study took place in an indoor training area at the golf club Hostivař. Crosstabs showed significant differences between individuals' laterality and their gaze into AOI - areas of interest (middle part of the ball, top of the ball, bottom of the ball, back side of the ball). Statistically significant differences were also discovered between the mean fixation duration of participants with AOI on the middle part of the ball and all other AOIs. The results of this study helped us understand the examined phenomena and showed us the next aim in future quiet eye research. Future research should focus on examining a quiet eye on the golf course. Applying a quiet eye and therefore changing the way we concentrate might be beneficial for coaches and players themselves.

Keywords: eye tracking, golf, laterality, quiet eye

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8375 The Provision of a Safe Face-to-Face Teaching Program for Final Year Medical Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Rachel Byrne

Abstract:

Background: Due to patient and student safety concerns, combined with clinical teachers being redeployed to clinical practice, COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in face-to-face teaching sessions for medical students. Traditionally such sessions are particularly important for final year medical students, especially in preparing for their final practical exams. A reduced student presence on the wards has also resulted in fewer opportunities for junior doctors to provide teaching sessions. This has implications for junior doctors achieving their own curriculum outcomes for teaching, as well as potentially hindering the development of a future interest in medical education. Aims: The aims of the study are 1) To create a safe face-to-face teaching environment during COVID-19 which focussed on exam preparation for final year medical students, 2) To provide a platform for doctors to gain teaching experience, 3 ) to enable doctors to gain feedback or assessments on their teaching, 4) To create beginners guide to designing a new teaching program for future junior doctors. Methods: We created a program of timed clinical stations consisting of four sessions every five weeks during the student’s medicine attachment. Each session could be attended by 6 students and consisted of 6 stations ran by junior doctors, with each station following social distancing and personal protective equipment requirements. Junior doctors were asked to design their own stations. The sessions ran out-of-hours on weekday evenings and were optional for the students. Results: 95/95 students and 20/40 doctors involved in the programme completed feedback. 100% (n=95) of students strongly agreed/agreed that sessions were aimed at an appropriate level and provided constructive feedback. 100% (n=95) of students stated they felt more confident in their abilities and would recommend the session to peers. 90% (n=18) of the teachers strongly agreed/agreed that they felt more confident in their teaching abilities and that the sessions had improved their own medical knowledge. 85% (n=17) of doctors had a teaching assessment completed, and 83% (n=16) said the program had made them consider a career in medical education. The difficulties of creating such a program were highlighted throughout, and a beginner’s guide was created with the hopes of helping future doctors who are interested in teaching address the common obstacles.

Keywords: COVID-19, education, safety, medical

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8374 Training 'Green Ambassadors' in the Community-Action Learning Course

Authors: Friman Hen, Banner Ifaa, Shalom-Tuchin Bosmat, Einav Yulia

Abstract:

The action learning course is an academic course which involves academic learning and social activities. The courses deal with processes and social challenges, reveal different ideologies, and develop critical thinking and pragmatic ideas. Students receive course credits and a grade for being part of such courses. Participating students enroll in courses that involve action and activities to engage in the experiential learning process, thereby creating a dialogue and cross-fertilization between being taught in the classroom and experiencing the reality in the real world. A learning experience includes meeting with social organizations, institutions, and state authorities and carrying out practical work with diverse populations. Through experience, students strengthen their academic skills, formulate ethical attitudes toward reality, develop professional and civilian perspectives, and realize how they can influence their surrounding in the present and the hereafter. Under the guidance and supervision of Dr. Hen Friman, H.I.T. has built an innovative course that combines action and activities to increase the awareness and accessibility of the community in an experiential way. The end goal is to create Green Ambassadors—children with a high level of environmental awareness. This course is divided into two parts. The first part, focused on frontal teaching, delivers knowledge from extensive environmental fields to students. These areas include introduction to ecology, the process of electricity generation, air pollution, renewable energy, water economy, waste and recycling, and energy efficiency (first stage). In addition to the professional content in the environment field, students learn the method of effective and experiential teaching to younger learners (4 to 8 years old). With the attainment of knowledge, students are divided into operating groups. The second part of the course shows how the theory becomes practical and concrete. At this stage, students are asked to introduce to the first- and second-graders of ‘Revivim’ School in Holon a lesson of 90 minutes focused on presenting the issues and their importance during the course (second stage). This course is the beginning of a paradigm shift regarding energy usage in the modern society in Israel. The objective of the course is to expand worldwide and train the first and second-graders, and even pre-schoolers, in a wide scope to increase population awareness rate, both in Israel and all over the world, for a green future.

Keywords: air pollution, green ambassador, recycling, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
8373 A Quantitative Analysis of Rural to Urban Migration in Morocco

Authors: Donald Wright

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The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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8372 Realizing the National Disaster Management Policy of Sri Lanka through Public Private Partnerships

Authors: K. W. A. M. Kokila, Matsui Kenichi

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Sri Lanka’s disaster management policy aims to protect lives and developments in disaster affected areas by effectively using resources for disaster risk reduction, emergency management, and community awareness. However, funding for these action programs has posed a serious challenge to the country’s economy. This paper examines the extent to which private-public partnerships (PPPs) can facilitate and expedite disaster management works. In particular, it discusses the results of the questionnaire survey among policymakers, government administrators, NGOs, and private businesses. This questionnaire was conducted in 2017. All respondents were selected based on their experience in PPP projects in the past. The survey focused on clarifying the effectiveness of past PPP projects as well as their efficiency and transparency. The respondents also provided their own opinions and suggestions to improve the future PPP projects in Sri Lanka. The questionnaire was distributed to fifteen persons. The results show that almost all respondents think that PPP projects are beneficial and important for future disaster risk management in Sri Lanka. The respondents, however, showed some reservation about effectiveness and transparency of the PPP process. This paper also discusses the results on the respondents’ perceptions about their capacity regarding human resources and management. This paper, overall, sheds light on technological, financial and human resource management practices in developed countries as well as policy and legislation provisions regarding PPP projects.

Keywords: disaster management, policy, private public partnership, projects

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8371 A Qualitative Analysis of Factors Influencing the Intention of Selecting the Charged Nursing Care

Authors: Hyunsik Park

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Objective: To provide information of charged nursing care facility for helping to establish geriatric health care policy, and to figure out which factors would be the main determinants for the choice of it. Method: 46 males and 53 females, and the same number of their caregivers admitted into the charged nursing care facility were recruited for intensive interview including personal information, disease information, and economic, familial, marital and emotional statuses. This is a cross-sectional study and we analyzed the data qualitatively. Results: Patients had 3.2 diseases and a hospitalization for 2.3 years on average. They were consists of 46 singles (46.9%), 8 unmarried (8.2%), 5 divorced (5.1%) and 32 married (32.7%). More than two third (70.1%) were supported by their eldest son or daughter. Mostly, the family caregivers decided to admit into the facilities by the doctor’s recommendation (68.4%). When they made a choice for a facility, most of them (42.9%) considered environmental and sanitary conditions. According to their expectation for management in nursing care facility, most caregivers (59.2%) wanted simple-staying for the duration, but most patients (61.3%) expected to be home after taking comprehensive rehabilitation. Three-quarter of the caregivers would agree to use nursing care facilities in the future, if they would be the same situation. Conclusion: Life style and environment are rapidly changing. In the near future, we need lots of the charged nursing care facilities for the old, thus this study can be the good reference for the preparing upcoming aged and super-aged society.

Keywords: nursing care facility, aged society, qualitative analysis, health

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8370 Utilization of Developed Single Sequence Repeats Markers for Dalmatian Pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium) in Preliminary Genetic Diversity Study on Natural Populations

Authors: F. Varga, Z. Liber, J. Jakše, A. Turudić, Z. Šatović, I. Radosavljević, N. Jeran, M. Grdiša

Abstract:

Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium (Trevir.) Sch. Bip.; Asteraceae), a source of the commercially dominant plant insecticide pyrethrin, is a species endemic to the eastern Adriatic. Genetic diversity of T. cinerariifolium was previously studied using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. However, microsatellite markers (single sequence repeats - SSRs) are more informative because they are codominant, highly polymorphic, locus-specific, and more reproducible, and thus are most often used to assess the genetic diversity of plant species. Dalmatian pyrethrum is an outcrossing diploid (2n = 18) whose large genome size and high repeatability have prevented the success of the traditional approach to SSR markers development. The advent of next-generation sequencing combined with the specifically developed method recently enabled the development of, to the author's best knowledge, the first set of SSRs for genomic characterization of Dalmatian pyrethrum, which is essential from the perspective of plant genetic resources conservation. To evaluate the effectiveness of the developed SSR markers in genetic differentiation of Dalmatian pyrethrum populations, a preliminary genetic diversity study was conducted on 30 individuals from three geographically distinct natural populations in Croatia (northern Adriatic island of Mali Lošinj, southern Adriatic island of Čiovo, and Mount Biokovo) based on 12 SSR loci. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) by randomization test with 10,000 permutations was performed in Arlequin 3.5. The average number of alleles per locus, observed and expected heterozygosity, probability of deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and inbreeding coefficient was calculated using GENEPOP 4.4. Genetic distance based on the proportion of common alleles (DPSA) was calculated using MICROSAT. Cluster analysis using the neighbor-joining method with 1,000 bootstraps was performed with PHYLIP to generate a dendrogram. The results of the AMOVA analysis showed that the total SSR diversity was 23% within and 77% between the three populations. A slight deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was observed in the Mali Lošinj population. Allele richness ranged from 2.92 to 3.92, with the highest number of private alleles observed in the Mali Lošinj population (17). The average observed DPSA between 30 individuals was 0.557. The highest DPSA (0.875) was observed between several pairs of Dalmatian pyrethrum individuals from the Mali Lošinj and Mt. Biokovo populations, and the lowest between two individuals from the Čiovo population. Neighbor-joining trees, based on DPSA, grouped individuals into clusters according to their population affiliation. The separation of Mt. Biokovo clade was supported (bootstrap value 58%), which is consistent with the previous study on AFLP markers, where isolated populations from Mt. Biokovo differed from the rest of the populations. The developed SSR markers are an effective tool for assessing the genetic diversity and structure of natural Dalmatian pyrethrum populations. These preliminary results are encouraging for a future comprehensive study with a larger sample size across the species' range. Combined with the biochemical data, these highly informative markers could help identify potential genotypes of interest for future development of breeding lines and cultivars that are both resistant to environmental stress and high in pyrethrins. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project ‘Genetic background of Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir./ Sch. Bip.) insecticidal potential’- (PyrDiv) (IP-06-2016-9034) and by project KK.01.1.1.01.0005, Biodiversity and Molecular Plant Breeding, at the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity and Molecular Plant Breeding (CoE CroP-BioDiv), Zagreb, Croatia.

Keywords: Asteraceae, genetic diversity, genomic SSRs, NGS, pyrethrum, Tanacetum cinerariifolium

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8369 Negotiating Story Telling: Rhetoric and Reality of Rural Marginalization in the Era of Visual Culture

Authors: Vishnu Satya

Abstract:

Rural communities form the backbone of our society. These communities are self-contained, for the most part, in how they can sustain themselves. Except for the essentials, they are primarily dependent on the state for their development and prosperity. The state claims to provide these through policies and agencies which are designed to guide their livelihood and future. It is assumed that the state-run policies are effective and are reaching the intended audience. Though in reality, there is an ever-widening gap between the two. The interviews conducted with farmers suggests that the support provided by the state to this marginalized community falls far short of their expectations, leaving them helpless. This paper discusses the methods used in bringing the status quo of the marginalized farmers to the forefront by comparing-and-contrasting the existing rhetoric and reality of the rural diaspora. It is seen from the hands-on oral accounts of farmers that they are left hanging between the state and their farms. Unrepresented, this community's progress and future stand severely affected. The paper presents how the visual medium acts as a catalyst for social advocacy by bridging the gap between administrative services and the marginalized rural communities. The finding was that there exists a disconnect between policymakers and the farming community, which has hindered the progress of the farmers. These two communities live exclusively from each other. In conclusion, it is seen that when the gaps between administrators and farmers are plugged through grass-root efforts utilizing visual medium, the farmer's economic situation got better, and the community prospered.

Keywords: farmers, social advocacy, marginalized, story telling

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8368 Loan Supply and Asset Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

Abstract:

This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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8367 The Role of the Indigenous Radio Today and Its Impact on the Audience: The Case of Dambana FM in Sri Lanka

Authors: Dammika Bandara Herath

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A group of people who inherits a long history of existence within a particular country may be known as early inhabitants or indigenous peoples. In other words, they have not migrated to the particular territory from another part of the world and at the same time, they have inhabited the territory in issue prior to the time of a major invasion/migration. According to the UN, there are a number of unique attributes of the indigenous peoples: Self-identification as indigenous people,Historical continuity with pre-colonial and/or pre-settler societies, Distinct social, economic or political systems, Distinct language, culture and beliefs, Form non-dominant groups of society, Resolve to maintain and reproduce their ancestral environments and systems as distinctive peoples and communities. Indigenous peoples constitute 5% of the world’s population. They are also known as tribal people, first people, native people, and indigenous people. Various indigenous communities can be found in about 90 countries in the world. Asia is home to approximately 70 % of these indigenous communities who have their own unique socio-cultural identities. Most indigenous communities remain isolated from the mainstream social, cultural, and economic institutions of their homeland. Yet, they inherited their own unique rights and responsible peculiar to their own group. These include: Protecting the socio-cultural heritage of the group, Protecting the unique identity of their community from socio-cultural changes in the mainstream communities,Protecting their land, Diffusing their cultural heritage to the future generation, Co-existing peacefully with other community .However, indigenous peoples encounter a lot of challenges as a result of socio-cultural change and legal restrictions in the world today. To assist the communities to face these challenges, the mass –media can play a significant role and the radio media has a purpose-built mechanism for this mission, known as the indigenous radio. In Sri Lanka, Dambana FM is such a radio channel based on the indigenous radio model. The target audience of this channel is the vedda / indigenous community of Sri Lanka. This study intends to the current role of the indigenous radio based on Dambana FM, of which the target audience is the indigenous community of Dambana. For the purpose of this study, interviews were conducted among fifty randomly selected respondents from the indigenous community of Dambana. As far as the findings of this study are concerned, problems in the quality of the programmed broadcasted and problems of transmission are the key issues faced by the indigenous radio in Sri Lanka. Based on the findings, the researcher seeks to develop a model to enhance the impact of the indigenous radio on its listeners in Sri Lanka.

Keywords: indigenous, communities, radio, vedda, culture

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8366 Establishing Econometric Modeling Equations for Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in the Nile Delta of Egypt under Current Climate Conditions

Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 282