Search results for: linear predictive coding

Authors: Claire Limoge Schraen, Philippe Gueguen, Cedric Giry, Cedric Desprez, Frédéric Ragueneau

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Mediterranean area is characterized by numerous monumental or vernacular masonry structures illustrating old ways of build and live. Those precious buildings are often poorly documented, present complex shapes and loadings, and are protected by the States, leading to legal constraints. This area also presents a moderate to high seismic activity. Even moderate earthquakes can be magnified by local site effects and cause collapse or significant damage. Moreover the structural resistance of masonry buildings, especially when less famous or located in rural zones has been generally lowered by many factors: poor maintenance, unsuitable restoration, ambient pollution, previous earthquakes. Recent earthquakes prove that any damage to these architectural witnesses to our past is irreversible, leading to the necessity of acting preventively. This means providing preventive assessments for hundreds of structures with no or few documents. In this context we want to propose a general method, based on hierarchized numerical models, to provide preliminary structural diagnoses at a regional scale, indicating whether more precise investigations and models are necessary for each building. To this aim, we adapt different tools, being developed such as photogrammetry or to be created such as a preprocessor starting from pictures to build meshes for a FEM software, in order to allow dynamic studies of the buildings of the panel. We made an inventory of 198 baroque chapels and churches situated in the French Alps. Then their structural characteristics have been determined thanks field surveys and the MicMac photogrammetric software. Using structural criteria, we determined eight types of churches and seven types for chapels. We studied their dynamical behavior thanks to CAST3M, using EC8 spectrum and accelerogramms of the studied zone. This allowed us quantifying the effect of the needed simplifications in the most sensitive zones and choosing the most effective ones. We also proposed threshold criteria based on the observed damages visible in the in situ surveys, old pictures and Italian code. They are relevant in linear models. To validate the structural types, we made a vibratory measures campaign using vibratory ambient noise and velocimeters. It also allowed us validating this method on old masonry and identifying the modal characteristics of 20 churches. Then we proceeded to a dynamic identification between numerical and experimental modes. So we updated the linear models thanks to material and geometrical parameters, often unknown because of the complexity of the structures and materials. The numerically optimized values have been verified thanks to the measures we made on the masonry components in situ and in laboratory. We are now working on non-linear models redistributing the strains. So we validate the damage threshold criteria which we use to compute the vulnerability curves of each defined structural type. Our actual results show a good correlation between experimental and numerical data, validating the final modeling simplifications and the global method. We now plan to use non-linear analysis in the critical zones in order to test reinforcement solutions.

Keywords: heritage structures, masonry numerical modeling, seismic vulnerability assessment, vibratory measure

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Authors: Keyvan Molanorouzi, Selina Khoo, Tony Morris

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In recent years, there has been a decline in physical activity among adults. Motivation has been shown to be a crucial factor in maintaining physical activity. The purpose of this study was to whether PA motives measured by the Physical Activity and Leisure Motivation Scale PALMS predicted actual amount of PA at a later time to provide evidence for the construct validity of the PALMS. A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.Methods: A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. Results: The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. Conclusion: This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.

Keywords: physical activity, motivation, level of physical activity, type of physical activity

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Authors: Nathalie Bolding, Marta Montero, Joaquim Cevallos, Juan F. Martin-Lazaro

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Background: Inhaled epoprostenol (iEPO) have been shown to improve PaO2:FiO2 (PF) in combination with bronchodilators (BD). However, there is not an available device to deliver these two therapies concomitantly. We describe a new method to provide this therapy successfully. Objective: To evaluate the response to continuous nebulization of iEPO and intermittent nebulization of Salbutamol/Ipratropium bromide in adults with severe respiratory failure through a double mesh nebulisation in tandem. Methods: This observational study included two mechanical ventilated adults under hourly ventilatory, gasometrical and clinical measurements during 48h. Both had severe respiratory failure treated with continuous iEPO (50 – 200 micrograms/h) and BD (Salbutamol 2.5 mg and Ipratropium bromide 500 mcg every 6 hours) through double mesh nebulisation (Aerogen solo®) placed in tandem in the dry side of the humidificator. The primary endpoints were the variables associated with a positive response to this tandem nebulised therapy (PaFiO2 index, ROX index). Secondary endpoints were laboratory (ABG) clinical and ventilatory variables. Statistical analysis (SPSS v29) included linear regression and ANOVA. Results: The patients included (n=2) survived, both extubated, one after ECMO therapy. Severe acute respiratory failure had a positive response rate to continuous iEPO and intermittent BD: PaFiO2 increased (7.40 to 30.91; P75: 27%) as well as ROX index (2.91 to 11.43; P75: 33%). There was a linear correlation of improvement between iEPO with PaFiO2 (ANOVA, r=0.393, p<0.002) and ROX (r=0.419, p<0.001). iEPO+BD therapy did not show any complications. Conclusion: Continuous and intermittent mesh tandem nebulisation can be effectively delivered with this method with a positive effect in ventilatory parameters without observed complications. Randomised studies will be able to provide reassurance in this new therapy.

Keywords: tandem, mesh, nebulisers, pulmonary, vasoldilators, bronchodilators, respiratory, failure

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Authors: Atefeh Salehipoor

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Textiles play a vital role in human life, particularly in the form of clothing. However, the alarming rate at which textiles end up in landfills presents a significant environmental risk. With approximately one garbage truck per second being filled with discarded textiles, urgent measures are required to mitigate this trend. Governments and responsible organizations are calling upon various stakeholders to shift from a linear economy to a circular economy model in the textile industry. This article highlights several key approaches that can be undertaken to address this pressing issue. These approaches include the creation of renewable raw material sources, rethinking production processes, maximizing the use and reuse of textile products, implementing reproduction and recycling strategies, exploring redistribution to new markets, and finding innovative means to extend the lifespan of textiles. However, the rapid accumulation of textiles in landfills poses a significant threat to the environment. This article explores the urgent need for the textile industry to transition from a linear economy model to a circular economy model. The linear model, characterized by the creation, use, and disposal of textiles, is unsustainable in the long term. By adopting a circular economy approach, the industry can minimize waste, reduce environmental impact, and promote sustainable practices. This article outlines key approaches that can be undertaken to drive this transition. Approaches to Address Environmental Challenges: 1. Creation of Renewable Raw Materials Sources: Exploring and promoting the use of renewable and sustainable raw materials, such as organic cotton, hemp, and recycled fibers, can significantly reduce the environmental footprint of textile production. 2. Rethinking Production Processes: Implementing cleaner production techniques, optimizing resource utilization, and minimizing waste generation are crucial steps in reducing the environmental impact of textile manufacturing. 3. Maximizing Use and Reuse of Textile Products: Encouraging consumers to prolong the lifespan of textile products through proper care, maintenance, and repair services can reduce the frequency of disposal and promote a culture of sustainability. 4. Reproduction and Recycling Strategies: Investing in innovative technologies and infrastructure to enable efficient reproduction and recycling of textiles can close the loop and minimize waste generation. 5. Redistribution of Textiles to New Markets: Exploring opportunities to redistribute textiles to new and parallel markets, such as resale platforms, can extend their lifecycle and prevent premature disposal. 6. Improvising Means to Extend Textile Lifespan: Encouraging design practices that prioritize durability, versatility, and timeless aesthetics can contribute to prolonging the lifespan of textiles. Conclusion The textile industry must urgently transition from a linear economy to a circular economy model to mitigate the adverse environmental impact caused by textile waste. By implementing the outlined approaches, such as sourcing renewable raw materials, rethinking production processes, promoting reuse and recycling, exploring new markets, and extending the lifespan of textiles, stakeholders can work together to create a more sustainable and environmentally friendly textile industry. These measures require collective action and collaboration between governments, organizations, manufacturers, and consumers to drive positive change and safeguard the planet for future generations.

Keywords: textiles, circular economy, environmental challenges, renewable raw materials, production processes, reuse, recycling, redistribution, textile lifespan extension

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Authors: Mounir Zili

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We will introduce a new extension of the Brownian motion, that could serve to get a good model of many natural phenomena. It is a linear combination of a finite number of sub-fractional Brownian motions; that is why we will call it the mixed sub-fractional Brownian motion. We will present some basic properties of this process. Among others, we will check that our process is non-Markovian and that it has non-stationary increments. We will also give the conditions under which it is a semimartingale. Finally, the main features of its sample paths will be specified.

Keywords: mixed Gaussian processes, Sub-fractional Brownian motion, sample paths

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Authors: Bouchou Aïssa, Mohamed Akbi

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Contact materials used for electrical breakers are often made with silver alloys. Mechanical and thermo dynamical properties as well as electron emission of such complicated alloys present a lack of reliable and accurate experimental data. This paper deals mainly with electron work function (EWF) measurements about silver-metal oxide (Ag-MeO) electrical contacts (Ag-ZnO (92/8), before and after surface heat treatments at 296 K  813 K, under UHV conditions (residual gas pressure of 1.4 x 10-7 mbar). The electron work function (EWF) of silver zinc oxide materials was measured photoelectrically, using both Fowler’s method of isothermal curves and linearized Fowler plots. In this paper, we present the development of a method for measuring photoelectric work function of contact materials. Also reported in this manuscript are the results of experimental work whose purpose has been the buildup of a reliable photoelectric system and associated monochromatic ultra-violet radiations source, and the photoelectric measurement of the electron work functions (EWF) of contact materials. In order to study the influence of annealing temperature on the EWF, a vacuum furnace was used for heating the metallic samples up to 800 K. The EWF of the silver – zinc oxide materials were investigated to study the influence of annealing temperature on the EWF. In the present study, the photoelectric measurements about Ag-ZnO(92/8) contacts have shown a linear decrease of the EWF with increasing temperature, i.e. the temperature coefficient is constant and negative: for the first annealing # 1, in the temperature range [299 K  823 K]. On the contrary, a linear increase was observed with increasing temperature (i.e. , being constant and positive), for the next annealing # 2, in the temperature range [296 K  813 K]. The EWFs obtained for silver-zinc oxide Ag-ZnO(92/8) show an obvious dependence on the annealing temperature which is strongly associated with the evolution of the arrangement on ZnO nano particles on the Ag-ZnO contact surface as well as surface charge distribution.

Keywords: Photoemission, Electron work function, Fowler methods, Ag-ZnO contact materials, Vacuum heat treatment

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Authors: Pradakshina Sharma, Jagriti Narang

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Due to the critical significance in the early identification of infectious diseases, electrochemical sensors have garnered considerable interest. Here, we develop a detection platform for the chikungunya virus by rationally implementing the extremely high charge-transfer efficiency of a ternary nanocomposite of graphene oxide, silver, and gold (G/Ag/Au) (CHIKV). Because paper is an inexpensive substrate and can be produced in large quantities, the use of electrochemical paper analytical device (EPAD) origami further enhances the sensor's appealing qualities. A cost-effective platform for point-of-care diagnostics is provided by paper-based testing. These types of sensors are referred to as eco-designed analytical tools due to their efficient production, usage of the eco-friendly substrate, and potential to reduce waste management after measuring by incinerating the sensor. In this research, the paper's foldability property has been used to develop and create 3D multifaceted biosensors that can specifically detect the CHIKVX-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, UV-vis spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to characterize the produced nanoparticles. In this work, aptamers are used since they are thought to be a unique and sensitive tool for use in rapid diagnostic methods. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) and linear sweep voltammetry (LSV), which were both validated with a potentiostat, were used to measure the analytical response of the biosensor. The target CHIKV antigen was hybridized with using the aptamer-modified electrode as a signal modulation platform, and its presence was determined by a decline in the current produced by its interaction with an anionic mediator, Methylene Blue (MB). Additionally, a detection limit of 1ng/ml and a broad linear range of 1ng/ml-10µg/ml for the CHIKV antigen were reported.

Keywords: biosensors, ePAD, arboviral infections, point of care

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Authors: Hien Thi Dieu Truong, Mahmoud Al-Sarayreh, Pullanagari Reddy, Marlon M. Reis, Richard Archer

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New Zealand mānuka honey is a honeybee product derived mainly from Leptospermum scoparium nectar. The potent antibacterial activity of mānuka honey derives principally from methylglyoxal (MGO), in addition to the hydrogen peroxide and other lesser activities present in all honey. MGO is formed from dihydroxyacetone (DHA) unique to L. scoparium nectar. Mānuka honey also has an idiosyncratic phenolic profile that is useful as a chemical maker. Authentic mānuka honey is highly valuable, but almost all honey is formed from natural mixtures of nectars harvested by a hive over a time period. Once diluted by other nectars, mānuka honey irrevocably loses value. We aimed to apply hyperspectral imaging to honey frames before bulk extraction to minimise the dilution of genuine mānuka by other honey and ensure authenticity at the source. This technology is non-destructive and suitable for an industrial setting. Chemometrics using linear Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed limited efficacy in interpreting chemical footprints due to large non-linear relationships between predictor and predictand in a large sample set, likely due to honey quality variability across geographic regions. Therefore, an advanced modelling approach, one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN), was investigated for analysing hyperspectral data for extraction of biochemical information from honey. The 1D-CNN model showed superior prediction of honey quality (R² = 0.73, RMSE = 2.346, RPD= 2.56) to PLS (R² = 0.66, RMSE = 2.607, RPD= 1.91) and SVM (R² = 0.67, RMSE = 2.559, RPD=1.98). Classification of mono-floral manuka honey from multi-floral and non-manuka honey exceeded 90% accuracy for all models tried. Overall, this study reveals the potential of HSI and deep learning modelling for automating the evaluation of honey quality in frames.

Keywords: mānuka honey, quality, purity, potency, deep learning, 1D-CNN, chemometrics

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Mengyu Lu

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This study investigates how Chinese SMEs manage financial risks in financing from customers from the perspectives of ethics and national culture. A grounded theory approach is adopted to identify the causal conditions, actions/interactions, and consequences. 32 interviews were conducted, and systematic coding methods were used to identify themes and categories. This study found that Chinese ethical principles, including integrity, friendship, and reciprocity, and cultural traits, including collectivism, acquaintance society, and long-term orientation, provide conditions for financing from customers. The SMEs establish trust-based relationships with customers through personal communications and social networks and reduce financial risk through diversification, frequent operations, and enterprise reputations. Both customers and SMEs can get benefits like financial resources and customer experiences. This study creates a theoretical framework that connects the causal conditions, processes, and outcomes, providing a deeper understanding of financing from customers. A resource and process capability theory of SMEs and a customer capital and customer value model are proposed to connect accounting and finance concepts. Suggestions are proposed for the authorities as more guidance and regulations are needed for this informal finance.

Keywords: CRM, culture, ethics, SME, risk management

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Authors: Nima Safaei, Arezoo Masoud, Babak Safaei

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In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on the role of urban planning in walking capability and the effects of individual and socioeconomic factors on the physical activity levels of city dwellers. Although considerable number of studies are conducted about walkability and for identifying the effective factors in walking mode choice in developed countries, to our best knowledge, literature lacks in the study of factors affecting choice of walking mode in developing countries. Due to the high importance of health aspects of human societies and in order to make insights and incentives for reducing traffic during rush hours, many researchers and policy makers in the field of transportation planning have devoted much attention to walkability studies; they have tried to improve the effective factors in the choice of walking mode in city neighborhoods. In this study, effective factors in walkability that have proven to have significant impact on the choice of walking mode, are studied at the same time in work trips. The data for the study is collected from the employees in their workplaces by well-instructed people using questionnaires; the statistical population of the study consists of 117 employed people who commute daily from work to home in Rasht city of Iran during the beginning of spring 2015. Results of the study which are found through the linear regression modeling, show that people who do not have freedom of choice for choosing their living locations and need to be present at their workplaces in certain hours have lower levels of walking. Additionally, unlike some of the previous studies which were conducted in developed countries, coincidental effects of Body Mass Index (BMI) and the income level of employees, do not have a significant effect on the walking level in work travels.

Keywords: BMI, linear regression, transportation, walking, work trips

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Authors: Ahmad Zulfahmi Mohd Kamaruzaman, Mohd Ismail Ibrahim, Ariffin Marzuki Mokhtar, Maizun Mohd Zain, Saiful Nazri Satiman, Mohd Najib Majdi Yaacob

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Background: Aftermath any patient safety incidents, the involved healthcare providers possibly sustained second victim-related distress (second victim distress and reduced their professional efficacy), with subsequent negative work-related outcomes or vice versa cultivating resilience. This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting negative work-related outcomes and resilience, with the triad of support; colleague, supervisor, and institutional support as the hypothetical mediators. Methods: This was a cross sectional study recruiting a total of 733 healthcare providers from three tertiary care in Kelantan, Malaysia. Three steps of hierarchical linear regression were developed for each outcome; negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Then, four multiple mediator models of support triad were analyzed. Results: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad contributed significantly for each regression model. In the pathway of professional efficacy on each negative work-related outcomes and resilience, colleague support partially mediated the relationship. As for second victim distress on negative work related outcomes, colleague and supervisor support were the partial mediator, and on resilience; all support triad also produced a similar effect. Conclusion: Second victim distress, professional efficacy, and the support triad influenced the relationship with the negative work-related outcomes and resilience. Support triad as the mediators ameliorated the effect in between and explained the urgency of having good support for recovery post encountering patient safety incidents.

Keywords: second victims, patient safety incidents, hierarchical linear regression, mediation, support

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Authors: Hee Sun (Sunny) Choi, Gerhard Bruyns, Wang Zhang, Sky Cheng, Saijal Sharma

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This research addresses the need for a comprehensive framework that can guide the design and assessment of multi-level public spaces and public realms and their impact on the built environment. The study aims to understand and measure the neural mechanisms involved in this process. By doing so, it can lay the foundation for vertical and volumetric urbanism and ensure consistency and excellence in the field while also supporting scientific research methods for urban design with cognitive neuroscientists. To investigate these aspects, the paper focuses on the neighborhood scale in Hong Kong, specifically examining multi-level public spaces and quasi-public spaces within both commercial and residential complexes. The researchers use predictive Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a methodology to assess and comprehend the applicability of the urban design framework for vertical and volumetric urbanism. The findings aim to identify the factors that contribute to successful public spaces within a vertical living environment, thus introducing a new typology of public spaces.

Keywords: vertical urbanism, scientific research methods, spatial cognition, urban design guideline

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Authors: F. Uriel, M. M. Fernandez Liporace

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In the last decade, academic achievement in higher education has become a topic of agenda in Argentina, regarding the high figures of adjustment problems, academic failure and dropout, and the low graduation rates in the context of massive classes and traditional teaching methods. Psychological variables, such as perceived social support, academic motivation and learning styles and strategies have much to offer since their measurement by tests allows a proper diagnose of their influence on academic achievement. Framed in a major research, several studies analysed multiple samples, totalizing 5135 students attending Argentinean public universities. The first goal was aimed at the identification of statistically significant differences in psychological variables -perceived social support, learning styles, learning strategies, and academic motivation- by age, gender, and degree of academic advance (freshmen versus sophomores). Thus, an inferential group differences study for each psychological dependent variable was developed by means of student’s T tests, given the features of data distribution. The second goal, aimed at examining associations between the four psychological variables on the one hand, and academic achievement on the other, was responded by correlational studies, calculating Pearson’s coefficients, employing grades as the quantitative indicator of academic achievement. The positive and significant results that were obtained led to the formulation of different predictive models of academic achievement which had to be tested in terms of adjustment and predictive power. These models took the four psychological variables above mentioned as predictors, using regression equations, examining predictors individually, in groups of two, and together, analysing indirect effects as well, and adding the degree of academic advance and gender, which had shown their importance within the first goal’s findings. The most relevant results were: first, gender showed no influence on any dependent variable. Second, only good achievers perceived high social support from teachers, and male students were prone to perceive less social support. Third, freshmen exhibited a pragmatic learning style, preferring unstructured environments, the use of examples and simultaneous-visual processing in learning, whereas sophomores manifest an assimilative learning style, choosing sequential and analytic processing modes. Despite these features, freshmen have to deal with abstract contents and sophomores, with practical learning situations due to study programs in force. Fifth, no differences in academic motivation were found between freshmen and sophomores. However, the latter employ a higher number of more efficient learning strategies. Sixth, freshmen low achievers lack intrinsic motivation. Seventh, models testing showed that social support, learning styles and academic motivation influence learning strategies, which affect academic achievement in freshmen, particularly males; only learning styles influence achievement in sophomores of both genders with direct effects. These findings led to conclude that educational psychologists, education specialists, teachers, and universities must plan urgent and major changes. These must be applied in renewed and better study programs, syllabi and classes, as well as tutoring and training systems. Such developments should be targeted to the support and empowerment of students in their academic pathways, and therefore to the upgrade of learning quality, especially in the case of freshmen, male freshmen, and low achievers.

Keywords: academic achievement, academic motivation, coping, learning strategies, learning styles, perceived social support

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Authors: Xiao-lei Wang

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The Novel Concept Combination (NCC) refers to the unique ability of multilingual children to creatively merge and integrate different linguistic and cultural elements to form innovative and original concepts. Children raised with more than one language often exhibit this skill in their daily communication, such as creating innovative metaphors that enrich their communication, showcasing their creativity in conveying the essence of their messages. This paper explores NCC abilities in multilingual children by focusing on two male trilingual siblings exposed to Chinese, French, and English from birth. The siblings were observed for 19 years in their daily context. Seventy-six hours of video-recorded data were used for this study (38 hours for each participant). A coding scheme developed by Wang et al. was employed to code the recorded data. The results suggest that these multilingual siblings proportionally increased their NCC skills over the years, emerging at age 3 and peaking at age 15. The characteristic of their NCC lies in their capacity to not merely replicate linguistic elements of different languages but to recreate, reshape, and reconstruct novel ideas in communication, enriching their interactions. The paper also addresses the educational implications for educators and parents, emphasizing the importance of valuing these novel ideas in everyday environments to encourage NCC development. This, in turn, contributes to cognitive and social development.

Keywords: multilingual children, novel concept combination, multilingual creativity, linguistic richness

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Authors: Thota Sai Prakash, B. Yaswanth, Jhade Bhuvaneswar, Marreddy Divakar Reddy, Shyam Ji Gupta

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Across the globe, there are a lot of chronic diseases, and heart disease stands out as one of the most perilous. Sadly, many lives are lost to this condition, even though early intervention could prevent such tragedies. However, identifying heart disease in its initial stages is not easy. To address this challenge, we propose an automated system aimed at predicting the presence of heart disease using advanced techniques. By doing so, we hope to empower individuals with the knowledge needed to take proactive measures against this potentially fatal illness. Our approach towards this problem involves meticulous data preprocessing and the development of predictive models utilizing classification algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree, and Random Forest. We assess the efficiency of every model based on metrics like accuracy, ensuring that we select the most reliable option. Additionally, we conduct thorough data analysis to reveal the importance of different attributes. Among the models considered, Random Forest emerges as the standout performer with an accuracy rate of 96.04% in our study.

Keywords: support vector machines, decision tree, random forest

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Idrees

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The present study has been designed to explore the causes and effects of Youth Bulge in Pakistan. However, youth bulge is a part of population segment which create problem for the whole society. The youth bulge is a common phenomenon in many developing countries, and in particular, in the least developed countries. It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate. The result is that a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, and today’s children are tomorrow’s young adults. Youth often play a prominent role in political violence and the existence of a “youth bulge” has been associated with times of political crisis. The population pyramid of Pakistan represents a large youth proportion and our government did not use that youth in positive way and did not provide them opportunity for development, this situation creates frustration in youth that leads them towards conflict, unrest and violence. This study will be focus on the opportunity and motives of the youth bulge situation in Pakistan in the lens of youth bulge theory. Moreover, it will give some suggestions to utilize youth in the development activities and avoid youth bulge situation in Pakistan. The present research was conducted in the metropolitan entities of Punjab, Pakistan. A sample of 300 respondents was taken from three randomly selected metropolitan entities (Faisalabad, Lahore and Rawalpindi) of Punjab Province of Pakistan. Information regarding demography, household, locality and other socio-cultural variables related to causes and effects of youth bulge in the state was collected through a well structured interview schedule. Mean, Standard Deviation and frequency distribution were used to check the measure of central tendency. Multiple linear regression was also applied to measure the influence of various independent variables on the response variable.

Keywords: youth bulge, violence, conflict, social unrest, crime, metropolitan entities, mean, standard deviation, multiple linear regression

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Authors: Jean Marie Tshimula, Atsushi Togashi

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We develop a data-science approach for providing an interactive visualization and predictive models to find insights into the projects' historical data in order for stakeholders understand some unseen opportunities in the African market that might escape them behind the online project portfolio of the African Development Bank. This machine learning-based web application identifies the market trend of the fastest growing economies across the continent as well skyrocketing sectors which have a significant impact on the future of business in Africa. Owing to this, the approach is tailored to predict where the investment needs are the most required. Moreover, we create a corpus that includes the descriptions of over more than 1,200 projects that approximately cover 14 sectors designed for some of 53 African countries. Then, we sift out this large amount of semi-structured data for extracting tiny details susceptible to contain some directions to follow. In the light of the foregoing, we have applied the combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Random Forests at the level of the analysis module of our methodology to highlight the most relevant topics that investors may focus on for investing in Africa.

Keywords: machine learning, topic modeling, natural language processing, big data

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Authors: Alok Madan, Arshad K. Hashmi

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The paper presents a plastic analysis procedure based on the energy balance concept for performance based seismic retrofit of multi-story multi-bay masonry infilled reinforced concrete (R/C) frames with a ‘soft’ ground story using passive energy dissipation (PED) devices with the objective of achieving a target performance level of the retrofitted R/C frame for a given seismic hazard level at the building site. The proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure was employed for developing performance based design (PBD) formulations for PED devices for a simulated application in seismic retrofit of existing frame structures designed in compliance with the prevalent standard codes of practice. The PBD formulations developed for PED devices were implemented for simulated seismic retrofit of a representative code-compliant masonry infilled R/C frame with a ‘soft’ ground story using friction dampers as the PED device. Non-linear dynamic analyses of the retrofitted masonry infilled R/C frames is performed to investigate the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed energy based plastic analysis procedure in achieving the target performance level under design level earthquakes. Results of non-linear dynamic analyses demonstrate that the maximum inter-story drifts in the masonry infilled R/C frames with a ‘soft’ ground story that is retrofitted with the friction dampers designed using the proposed PBD formulations are controlled within the target drifts under near-field as well far-field earthquakes.

Keywords: energy methods, masonry infilled frame, near-field earthquakes, seismic protection, supplemental damping devices

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Authors: Karim Kootahi, Seyed Abolhasan Naeini

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The soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), which represents the relationship between suction and water content (or degree of saturation), is an important property of unsaturated soils. The conventional method for determining SWCC is through specialized testing procedures. Since these procedures require specialized unsaturated soil testing apparatus and lengthy testing programs, several index properties-based correlations have been developed for estimating the SWCC of fine-grained soils. There are, however, considerable inconsistencies among the published correlations and there is no validation study on the predictive ability of existing correlations. In the present study, all existing index properties-based correlations are evaluated using a high quality worldwide database. The performances of existing correlations are assessed both graphically and quantitatively using statistical measures. The results of the validation indicate that most of the existing correlations provide unacceptable estimates of degree of saturation but the most recent model appears to be promising.

Keywords: SWCC, correlations, index properties, validation

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Authors: Kareem Abdelwahed, Ahmed Salama, Ahmed Rabie, Ahmed Hamdy, Waleed Abdelfattah, Ahmed Abd El-Rahman

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Conventional vapor-compression refrigeration systems rely on typical refrigerants, such as CFC, HCFC and ammonia. Despite of their suitable thermodynamic properties and their stability in the atmosphere, their corresponding global warming potential and ozone depletion potential raise concerns about their usage. Thus, the need for new refrigeration systems, which are environment-friendly, inexpensive and simple in construction, has strongly motivated the development of thermoacoustic energy conversion systems. A thermoacoustic refrigerator (TAR) is a device that is mainly consisting of a resonator, a stack and two heat exchangers. Typically, the resonator is a long circular tube, made of copper or steel and filled with Helium as a the working gas, while the stack has short and relatively low thermal conductivity ceramic parallel plates aligned with the direction of the prevailing resonant wave. Typically, the resonator of a standing-wave refrigerator has one end closed and is bounded by the acoustic driver at the other end enabling the propagation of half-wavelength acoustic excitation. The hot and cold heat exchangers are made of copper to allow for efficient heat transfer between the working gas and the external heat source and sink respectively. TARs are interesting because they have no moving parts, unlike conventional refrigerators, and almost no environmental impact exists as they rely on the conversion of acoustic and heat energies. Their fabrication process is rather simpler and sizes span wide variety of length scales. The viscous and thermal interactions between the stack plates, heat exchangers' plates and the working gas significantly affect the flow field within the plates' channels, and the energy flux density at the plates' surfaces, respectively. Here, the design, the manufacture and the testing of a compact refrigeration system that is based on the thermoacoustic energy-conversion technology is reported. A 1-D linear acoustic model is carefully and specifically developed, which is followed by building the hardware and testing procedures. The system consists of two harmonically-oscillating pistons driven by a simple 1-HP rotary drive mechanism operating at a frequency of 42Hz -hereby, replacing typical expensive linear motors and loudspeakers-, and a thermoacoustic stack within which the energy conversion of sound into heat is taken place. Air at ambient conditions is used as the working gas while the amplitude of the driver's displacement reaches 19 mm. The 30-cm-long stack is a simple porous ceramic material having 100 square channels per square inch. During operation, both oscillating-gas pressure and solid-stack temperature are recorded for further analysis. Measurements show a maximum temperature difference of about 27 degrees between the stack hot and cold ends with a Carnot coefficient of performance of 11 and estimated cooling capacity of five Watts, when operating at ambient conditions. A dynamic pressure of 7-kPa-amplitude is recorded, yielding a drive ratio of 7% approximately, and found in a good agreement with theoretical prediction. The system behavior is clearly non-linear and significant non-linear loss mechanisms are evident. This work helps understanding the operation principles of thermoacoustic refrigerators and presents a keystone towards developing commercial thermoacoustic refrigerator units.

Keywords: refrigeration system, rotary drive mechanism, standing-wave, thermoacoustic refrigerator

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Dalia. G. Aseel, E. E. Hafez, S. M. Hammad

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Viral RNAs of both potato leaf roll virus (PLRV) and potato virus Y (PVY) were extracted from infected potato leaves collected from different Egyptian regions. Differential Display Polymerase Chain Reaction (DD-PCR) using (Endogluconase, β-1,3-glucanases, Chitinase, Peroxidase and Polyphenol oxidase) primers (forward strand) for was performed. The obtained data revealed different banding patterns depending on the viral type and the region of infection. Regarding PLRV, a 58 up regulated and 19 down regulated genes were detected, while, 31 up regulated and 14 down regulated genes were observed in case of PVY. Based on the nucleotide sequencing, variable phylogenetic relationships were reported for the three sequenced genes coding for: Induced stolen tip protein, Disease resistance RPP-like protein and non-specific lipid-transfer protein. In a complementary approach, using the quantitative Real-time PCR, the expressions of PRs genes understudy were estimated in the infected leaves by PLRV and PVY of three potato cultivars (Spunta, Diamont and Cara). The infection with both viruses inhibited the expressions of the five PRs genes. On the contrary, infected leaves by PLRV or PVY elevated the expression of some defense genes. This interaction also may be enhanced and/or inhibited the expression of some genes responsible for the plant defense mechanisms.

Keywords: PLRV, PVY, PR genes, DD-PCR, qRT-PCR, sequencing

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Authors: K.Narasimhulu, Y. Pydi Setty

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The objective of this present study is the optimization of process parameters in biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions by Pseudomonas putida using Response Surface Methodology in a Packed bed bioreactor. The experimental data were also tested with theoretical models to find the best fit model. The present paper elucidates RSM as an efficient approach for predictive model building and optimization of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions using Pseudomonas putida. In packed bed biosorption studies, comparison of the breakthrough curves of Ni(II) and Cd(II) for Agar immobilized and PAA immobilized Pseudomonas putida at optimum conditions of flow rate of 300 mL/h, initial metal ion concentration of 100 mg/L and bed height of 20 cm with weight of biosorbent of 12 g, it was found that the Agar immobilized Pseudomonas putida showed maximum percent biosorption and bed saturation occurred at 20 minutes. Optimization results of Ni(II) and Cd(II) by Pseudomonas putida from the Design Expert software were obtained as bed height of 19.93 cm, initial metal ion concentration of 103.85 mg/L, and flow rate of 310.57 mL/h. The percent biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) is 87.2% and 88.2% respectively. The predicted optimized parameters are in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: packed bed bioreactor, response surface mthodology, pseudomonas putida, biosorption, waste water

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Authors: Barbara Janari

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This paper focuses on temporality in J.M. Coetzee’s first novel, Dusklands, to argue that the novel’s fractured, disjointed temporality is intricately linked to the representations of the war in Vietnam and the colonial project in South Africa. The disrupted temporalities in the novel eschew chronological plots and linear time in favour of narratives that subvert the notion of historical progress to suggest instead the coextensive, multivalent ways in which the past and present interpenetrate one another. The disruption of temporal flow in the novel is evident in its form – the novel comprises two novellas that are juxtaposed, with the first part (‘The Vietnam War’) set centuries before the second part (‘The Narrative of Jacobus Coetzee’). The juxtaposition of the two novellas suggests history’s sometimes overlapping and lateral, rather than linear, movement. The novel’s form is extended in its montage narrative structure, which works to extend its temporal range. The temporal disjunction is reinforced, firstly, by Coetzee’s textual strategies, which include the subversion and critique of realism, parody, repetition, and the narrative technique of montage, and secondly, by the novel’s thematic concerns, which focus on the ways in which American domination can be linked to the colonial quest from earlier times. The complex structure of various strands and levels of authorship slows down the narrative’s temporal flow, requiring the reader to spend a fair amount of time unraveling the various parts of the narrative and relating them to each other. The structure epitomizes reflexive referencing, in which the reader can only make sense of the narrative by going back and forth and connecting various parts of it. The narrative structure also emphasizes the underlying similarities in the brutality that marked these two distinct historical events, epitomized by the drive towards subjection and domination by the novel’s two protagonists, Eugene Dawn and Jacobus Coetzee. The links and overlapping strands between the two novellas emphasize the ways in which the historical truth of colonial discourse becomes as much a myth as the propaganda program in Vietnam.

Keywords: disjunction, juxtaposition, montage, temporality

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Authors: Mehmet Akköse

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Concern about seismic safety of concrete dams have been growing around the world, partly because the population at risk in locations downstream of major dams continues to expand and also because it is increasingly evident that the seismic design concepts in use at the time most existing dams were built were inadequate. Most of the investigations in the past have been conducted on large dams, typically above 100m high. A large number of concrete dams in our country and in other parts of the world are less than 50m high. Most of these dams were usually designed using pseudo-static methods, ignoring the dynamic characteristics of the structure as well as the characteristics of the ground motion. Therefore, it is important to carry out investigations on seismic behavior this category of dam in order to assess and evaluate the safety of existing dams and improve the knowledge for different high dams to be constructed in the future. In this study, size effects on structural performance of concrete gravity dams subjected to near and far-fault ground motions are investigated including dam-water-foundation interaction. For this purpose, a benchmark problem proposed by ICOLD (International Committee on Large Dams) is chosen as a numerical application. Structural performance of the dam having five different heights is evaluated according to damage criterions in USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). It is decided according to their structural performance if non-linear analysis of the dams requires or not. The linear elastic dynamic analyses of the dams to near and far-fault ground motions are performed using the step-by-step integration technique. The integration time step is 0.0025 sec. The Rayleigh damping constants are calculated assuming 5% damping ratio. The program NONSAP modified for fluid-structure systems with the Lagrangian fluid finite element is employed in the response calculations.

Keywords: concrete gravity dams, Lagrangian approach, near and far-fault ground motion, USACE damage criterions

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Hasan Atakan Sengul, Nergis Canturk, Bahar Erbas

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Drinking water is indispensable for life. With increasing awareness of communities, the content of drinking water and tap water has been a matter of curiosity. The presence of Bisphenol-A is the top one when content curiosity is concerned. The most used chemical worldwide for production of polycarbonate plastics and epoxy resins is Bisphenol-A. People are exposed to Bisphenol-A chemical, which disrupts the endocrine system, almost every day. Each year it is manufactured an average of 5.4 billion kilograms of Bisphenol-A. Linear formula of Bisphenol-A is (CH₃)₂C(C₆H₄OH)₂, its molecular weight is 228.29 and CAS number is 80-05-7. Bisphenol-A is known to be used in the manufacturing of plastics, along with various chemicals. Bisphenol-A, an industrial chemical, is used in the raw materials of packaging mate-rials in the monomers of polycarbonate and epoxy resins. The pass through the nutrients of Bisphenol-A substance happens by packaging. This substance contaminates with nutrition and penetrates into body by consuming. International researches show that BPA is transported through body fluids, leading to hormonal disorders in animals. Experimental studies on animals report that BPA exposure also affects the gender of the newborn and its time to reach adolescence. The extent to what similar endocrine disrupting effects are on humans is a debate topic in many researches. In our country, detailed studies on BPA have not been done. However, it is observed that 'BPA-free' phrases are beginning to appear on plastic packaging such as baby products and water carboys. Accordingly, this situation increases the interest of the society about the subject; yet it causes information pollution. In our country, all national and international studies on exposure to BPA have been examined and Ankara province has been designated as testing region. To assess the effects of plastic use in daily habits of people and the plastic amounts removed out of the body, the results of the survey conducted with volunteers who live in Ankara has been analyzed with Sciex appliance by means of LC-MS/MS in the laboratory and the amount of exposure and BPA removal have been detected by comparing the results elicited before. The results have been compared with similar studies done in international arena and the relation between them has been exhibited. Consequently, there has been found no linear correlation between the amount of BPA in drinking water and the amount of BPA in urine. This has also revealed that environmental exposure and the habits of daily plastic use have also direct effects a human body. When the amount of BPA in drinking water is considered; minimum 0.028 µg/L, maximum 1.136 µg/L, mean 0.29194 µg/L and SD(standard deviation)= 0.199 have been detected. When the amount of BPA in urine is considered; minimum 0.028 µg/L, maximum 0.48 µg/L, mean 0.19181 µg/L and SD= 0.099 have been detected. In conclusion, there has been found no linear correlation between the amount of BPA in drinking water and the amount of BPA in urine (r= -0.151). The p value of the comparison between drinking water’s and urine’s BPA amounts is 0.004 which shows that there is a significant change and the amounts of BPA in urine is dependent on the amounts in drinking waters (p < 0.05). This has revealed that environmental exposure and daily plastic habits have also direct effects on the human body.

Keywords: analyze of bisphenol-A, BPA, BPA in drinking water, BPA in urine

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Authors: kaveh Jalilzadeh, Maryam Rastgari

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Motivation for learning a foreign language is needed for learners of any foreign language to effectively learn language skills. However, there are some factors that lead to the learners’ demotivation. Therefore, teachers of foreign languages, most notably English language which turned out to be an international language for academic and business purposes, need to be well aware of the demotivation sources and know how to reduce learners’ demotivation. This study is an attempt to explore demotivation-reducing strategies employed by Turkish EFL learners in L2 writing. The researchers used a qualitative case study and employed semi-structured interviews to collect data. The informants recruited in this study were 20 English writing lecturers who were selected through purposive sampling among university lecturers/instructors at the state and non-state universities in Istanbul and Ankara. Interviews were transcribed verbatim, and MAXQDA software (version 2022) was used for performing coding and thematic analysis of the data. Findings revealed that Turkish EFL teachers use 18 strategies to reduce language learners’ demotivation. The most frequently reported strategies were: writing in a group, writing about interesting topics, writing about new topics, writing about familiar topics, writing about simple topics, and writing about relevant topics. The findings have practical implications for writing teachers and learners of the English language.

Keywords: phenomenological study, emotional vulnerability, motivation, digital Settings

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Authors: Katharigatta N. Venugopala, Fernando Albericio, Bander E. Al-Dhubiab, T. Govender

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Recent years have witnessed a renaissance in the field of peptides that are obtained from various natural sources such as many bacteria, fungi, plants, seaweeds, vertebrates, invertebrates and have been reported for various pharmacological properties such as anti-TB, anticancer, antimalarial, anti-inflammatory, anti-HIV, antibacterial, antifungal, and antidiabetic, activities. In view of the pharmacological significance of natural peptides, serious research efforts of many scientific groups and pharmaceutical companies have consequently focused on them to explore the possibility of developing their potential analogues as therapeutic agents. Solid phase and solution phase peptide synthesis are the two methodologies currently available for the synthesis of natural or synthetic linear or cyclic depsi-peptides. From a synthetic point of view, there is no doubt that the solid-phase methodology gained added advantages over solution phase methodology in terms of simplicity, purity of the compound and the speed with which peptides can be synthesised. In the present study total synthesis, purification and structural elucidation of analogues of natural anti-TB cyclic depsi-peptides such as depsidomycin, massetolides and viscosin has been attempted by solid phase method using standard Fmoc protocols and finally off resin cyclization in solution phase method. In case of depsidomycin, synthesis of linear peptide on solid phase could not be achieved because of two turn inducing amino acids in the peptide sequence, but total synthesis was achieved by convergent solid phase peptide synthesis followed by cyclization in solution phase method. The title compounds obtained were in good yields and characterized by NMR and HRMS. Anti-TB results revealed that the potential title compound exhibited promising activity at 4 µg/mL against H37Rv and 16 µg/mL against MDR strains of tuberculosis.

Keywords: total synthesis, cyclic depsi-peptides, anti-TB activity, tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 623

Authors: Nouini Adrâa

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Background: The management of dizziness and vertigo can be challenging in the emergency department (ED). It is important to rapidly diagnose vertebrobasilar stroke (VBS), as therapeutic options such as thrombolysis and anticoagulation require prompt decisions. Objective: This study aims to assess the rate of misdiagnosis in patients with dizziness caused by VBS in the ED. Methods and Results: The cohort was comprised of 82 patients with a mean age of 55 years; 51% were women and 49% were men. Among dizzy patients, 15% had VBS. We used Cohen’s kappa test to quantify the agreement between two raters – namely, emergency physicians and neurologists – regarding the causes of dizziness in the ED. The agreement between emergency physicians and neurologists is low for the final diagnosis of central vertigo disorders and moderate for the final diagnosis of VBS. The sensitivity of ED clinal examination for benign conditions such as BPPV was low at 56%. The positive predictive value of the ED clinical examination for VBS was also low at 50%. Conclusion: There is a substantial rate of misdiagnosis in patients with dizziness caused by VBS in the ED. To reduce the number of missing diagnoses of VBS in the future, there is a need to train emergency physicians in neuro vestibular examinations, including the HINTS examination for acute vestibular syndrome (AVS) and the Dix-Hallpike (DH) maneuver for episodic vestibular syndrome. Using video head impulse tests could help reduce the rate of misdiagnosis of VBS in the ED.

Keywords: dizziness, vertigo, vestibular disease, emergency

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Saif Al Ghafri, Thomas Hughes, Armand Karimi, Kumarini Seneviratne, Jordan Oakley, Michael Johns, Eric F. May

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Knowledge of the thermophysical properties of complex mixtures at extreme conditions of pressure and temperature have always been essential to the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry’s evolution because of the tremendous technical challenges present at all stages in the supply chain from production to liquefaction to transport. Each stage is designed using predictions of the mixture’s properties, such as density, viscosity, surface tension, heat capacity and phase behaviour as a function of temperature, pressure, and composition. Unfortunately, currently available models lead to equipment over-designs of 15% or more. To achieve better designs that work more effectively and/or over a wider range of conditions, new fundamental property data are essential, both to resolve discrepancies in our current predictive capabilities and to extend them to the higher-pressure conditions characteristic of many new gas fields. Furthermore, innovative experimental techniques are required to measure different thermophysical properties at high pressures and over a wide range of temperatures, including near the mixture’s critical points where gas and liquid become indistinguishable and most existing predictive fluid property models used breakdown. In this work, we present a wide range of experimental measurements made for different binary and ternary mixtures relevant to LNG processing, with a particular focus on viscosity, surface tension, heat capacity, bubble-points and density. For this purpose, customized and specialized apparatus were designed and validated over the temperature range (200 to 423) K at pressures to 35 MPa. The mixtures studied were (CH4 + C3H8), (CH4 + C3H8 + CO2) and (CH4 + C3H8 + C7H16); in the last of these the heptane contents was up to 10 mol %. Viscosity was measured using a vibrating wire apparatus, while mixture densities were obtained by means of a high-pressure magnetic-suspension densimeter and an isochoric cell apparatus; the latter was also used to determine bubble-points. Surface tensions were measured using the capillary rise method in a visual cell, which also enabled the location of the mixture critical point to be determined from observations of critical opalescence. Mixture heat capacities were measured using a customised high-pressure differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). The combined standard relative uncertainties were less than 0.3% for density, 2% for viscosity, 3% for heat capacity and 3 % for surface tension. The extensive experimental data gathered in this work were compared with a variety of different advanced engineering models frequently used for predicting thermophysical properties of mixtures relevant to LNG processing. In many cases the discrepancies between the predictions of different engineering models for these mixtures was large, and the high quality data allowed erroneous but often widely-used models to be identified. The data enable the development of new or improved models, to be implemented in process simulation software, so that the fluid properties needed for equipment and process design can be predicted reliably. This in turn will enable reduced capital and operational expenditure by the LNG industry. The current work also aided the community of scientists working to advance theoretical descriptions of fluid properties by allowing to identify deficiencies in theoretical descriptions and calculations.

Keywords: LNG, thermophysical, viscosity, density, surface tension, heat capacity, bubble points, models

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 292