Search results for: safety risk assessment

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Aldona Kluczek

Abstract:

In recent years, manufacturing processes have interacted with sustainability issues realized in the cost-effective ways that minimalize energy, decrease negative impacts on the environment and are safe for society. However, the attention has been on separate sustainability assessment methods considering energy and material flow, energy consumption, and emission release or process control. In this paper, the energy-led sustainability assessment approach combining the methods: energy Life Cycle Assessment to assess environmental impact, Life Cycle Cost to analyze costs, and Social Life Cycle Assessment through ‘energy LCA-based value stream map’, is used to assess the energy sustainability of the hardwood lumber manufacturing process in terms of technologies. The approach integrating environmental, economic and social issues can be visualized in the considered energy-efficient technologies on the map of an energy LCA-related (input and output) inventory data. It will enable the identification of efficient technology of a given process to be reached, through the effective analysis of energy flow. It is also indicated that interventions in the considered technology should focus on environmental, economic improvements to achieve energy sustainability. The results have indicated that the most intense energy losses are caused by a cogeneration technology. The environmental impact analysis shows that a substantial reduction by 34% can be achieved with the improvement of it. From the LCC point of view, the result seems to be cost-effective, when done at that plant where the improvement is used. By demonstrating the social dimension, every component of the energy of plant labor use in the life-cycle process of the lumber production has positive energy benefits. The energy required to install the energy-efficient technology amounts to 30.32 kJ compared to others components of the energy of plant labor and it has the highest value in terms of energy-related social indicators. The paper depicts an example of hardwood lumber production in order to prove the applicability of a sustainability assessment method.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy life cycle assessment, life cycle cost, social life cycle analysis, manufacturing process, sustainability assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: S. Ivanova, K. Ivanov

Abstract:

Bemitil (2-ethylthiobenzimidazole hydrobromide) is a synthetic adaptogen and actoprotector, with wide-ranging pharmacological activities such as nootropic, antihypoxic, antioxidant, immunostimulant. The intake of Bemitil increases mental and physical performance and could be applied under either normal or extreme conditions. Until 2017 Bemitil was not considered as doping and was used by professional athletes more than 30 years because of its high efficiency and safety. The drug was included in WADA monitoring programme for 2018, and most likely it would be included in WADA Prohibited List for 2019. Usually, a substance/method is included in WADA Prohibited List if it meets any two of the following three criteria: the potential to enhance or enhances sports performance/ potential health risk to the athlete/ violates the spirit of sport. Bemitil has high performance-enhancing potential, but it is also safe- it is controversial whether it should be considered as doping.

Keywords: doping, bemitil, sport, actoprotector

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Osman Turkoglu, Alvin Estilo, Ritu Gupta, Liliam Pineda-Salgado, Rajesh Pandey

Abstract:

Background: Hepatotoxicity can be linked to a variety of clinical symptoms and histopathological signs, posing a great challenge in the surveillance of suspected drug-induced liver injury (DILI) cases in the safety database. Additionally, the majority of such cases are rare, idiosyncratic, highly unpredictable, and tend to demonstrate unique individual susceptibility; these qualities, in turn, lend to a pharmacovigilance monitoring process that is often tedious and time-consuming. Objective: Develop a multifactorial algorithm to assist pharmacovigilance physicians in identifying high-risk hepatotoxicity cases associated with DILI from the sponsor’s safety database (Argus). Methods: Multifactorial selection criteria were established using Structured Query Language (SQL) and the TIBCO Spotfire® visualization tool, via a combination of word fragments, wildcard strings, and mathematical constructs, based on Hy’s law criteria and pattern of injury (R-value). These criteria excluded non-eligible cases from monthly line listings mined from the Argus safety database. The capabilities and limitations of these criteria were verified by comparing a manual review of all monthly cases with system-generated monthly listings over six months. Results: On an average, over a period of six months, the algorithm accurately identified 92% of DILI cases meeting established criteria. The automated process easily compared liver enzyme elevations with baseline values, reducing the screening time to under 15 minutes as opposed to multiple hours exhausted using a cognitively laborious, manual process. Limitations of the algorithm include its inability to identify cases associated with non-standard laboratory tests, naming conventions, and/or incomplete/incorrectly entered laboratory values. Conclusions: The newly developed multifactorial algorithm proved to be extremely useful in detecting potential DILI cases, while heightening the vigilance of the drug safety department. Additionally, the application of this algorithm may be useful in identifying a potential signal for DILI in drugs not yet known to cause liver injury (e.g., drugs in the initial phases of development). This algorithm also carries the potential for universal application, due to its product-agnostic data and keyword mining features. Plans for the tool include improving it into a fully automated application, thereby completely eliminating a manual screening process.

Keywords: automation, drug-induced liver injury, pharmacovigilance, post-marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

Abstract:

The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

Procedia PDF Downloads 542

Authors: Cristina Cirone, Katrina Cirone, Monali S. Malvankar-Mehta

Abstract:

Purpose: An increased risk of visual impairment has been observed in individuals lacking a balanced diet. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the relationship between plant-based diets and specific ocular outcomes among adults. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement guidelines. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, and PubMed, were systematically searched up until May 27, 2021. Of the 503 articles independently screened by two reviewers, 21 were included in this review. Quality assessment and data extraction were performed by both reviewers. Meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 15.0. Fixed-effect and random-effect models were computed based on heterogeneity. Results: A total of 503 studies were identified which then underwent duplicate removal and a title and abstract screen. The remaining 61 studies underwent a full-text screen, 21 progressed to data extraction and fifteen were included in the quantitative analysis. Meta-analysis indicated that regular consumption of fish (OR = 0.70; CI: [0.62-0.79]) and skim milk, poultry, and non-meat animal products (OR = 0.70; CI: [0.61-0.79]) is positively correlated with a reduced risk of visual impairment (age-related macular degeneration, age-related maculopathy, cataract development, and central geographic atrophy) among adults. Consumption of red meat [OR = 1.41; CI: [1.07-1.86]) is associated with an increased risk of visual impairment. Conclusion: Overall, a pescatarian diet is associated with the most favorable visual outcomes among adults, while the consumption of red meat appears to negatively impact vision. Results suggest a need for more local and government-led interventions promoting a healthy and balanced diet.

Keywords: plant-based diet, pescatarian diet, visual impairment, systematic review, meta-analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: G. Guramishvili, M. Moistsrapishvili, L. Andghuladze

Abstract:

In the article are considered the problems arising at increasing of transferring from rolling stock axles on rail loading from 210 KN up to 270 KN and is offered for rail strength analysis definition of rail force loading complex integral characteristic with taking into account all affecting force factors that is characterizing specific operation condition of rail structure and defines the working capability of structure. As result of analysis due mentioned method is obtained that in the conditions of 270 KN loading the rail meets the working assessment criteria of rail and rail structures: Strength, rail track stability, rail links stability and its transverse stability, traffic safety condition that is rather important for post-Soviet countries railways.

Keywords: axial loading, rail force loading, rail structure, rail strength analysis, rail track stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

Abstract:

Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Amin Padash, Gholam Reza Nabi Bid Hendi, Hassan Hoveidi

Abstract:

Purpose: The aim of this research is developing a model for green management based on Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. An HSE-MS can be a powerful tool for organizations to both improve their environmental, health and safety performance, and enhance their business efficiency to green management. Model: The model is developed in this study can be used for industries as guidelines for implementing green management issue by considering Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. Case Study: The Pars Special Economic / Energy Zone Organization on behalf of Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) manages and develops the South and North oil and gas fields in the region. Methodology: This research according to objective is applied and based on implementing is descriptive and also prescription. We used technique MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) for determining the priorities of the factors. Based on process approach the model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in green issues are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. Then with using MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) algorithms (TOPSIS) the priority of basic variables are determined. The authors believe that the proposed model and results of this research can aid industries managers to implement green subjects according to Health, Safety and Environmental Management System in a more efficient and effective manner. Finding and conclusion: Basic factors involved in green issues and their weights can be the main finding. Model and relation between factors are the other finding of this research. The case is considered Petrochemical Company for promoting the system of ecological industry thinking.

Keywords: Fuzzy-AHP method , green management, health, safety and environmental management system, MCDM technique, TOPSIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: C. M. Williams, R. English, P. King, I. M. Brown

Abstract:

Introduction: Pseudoangiomatous Stromal Hyperplasia (PASH) is a benign fibrous proliferation of breast stroma affecting predominantly premenopausal women with no significant increased risk of breast cancer. Informal recommendations for management have continued to evolve over recent years from surgical excision to observation, although there are no specific national guidelines. This study assesses the safety of a non-surgical approach to PASH management by review of cases at a single centre. Methods: Retrospective case series review (January 2011 – August 2016) was conducted on consecutive PASH cases. Diagnostic classification (clinical, radiological and histological), management outcomes, and breast cancer incidence were recorded. Results: 43 patients were followed up for median of 25 months (3-64) with 75% symptomatic at presentation. 12% of cases (n=5) had a radiological score (BIRADS MMG or US) ≥ 4 of which 3 were confirmed malignant. One further malignancy was detected and proven radiologically occult and contralateral. No patients were diagnosed with a malignancy during follow-up. Treatment evolved from 67% surgical in 2011 to 33% in 2016. Conclusions: The management of PASH has transitioned in line with other published experience. The preliminary findings suggest this appears safe with no evidence of missed malignancies; however, longer follow up is required to confirm long-term safety. Recommendations: PASH with suspicious radiological findings ( ≥ U4/R4) warrants multidisciplinary discussion for excision. In the absence of histological or radiological suspicion of malignancy, PASH can be safely managed without surgery.

Keywords: benign breast disease, conservative management, malignancy, pseudoangiomatous stromal hyperplasia, surgical excision

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Umang H. Gajjar, K. M. Khambholja, R. K. Patel

Abstract:

Semecarpus anacardium shows the presence of bioflavonoids, phenolic compounds, bhilawanols, minerals, vitamins and amino acids. Detoxified S. anacardium and its oils are considered to have anti-inflammatory properties and used in nervous debility, neuritis, rheumatism and leprous modules. S. anacardium if used without purification causes toxic skin inflammation problem because it contains toxic phenolic oil. During this Shodhana Process - An ayurvedic purification method, toxic phenolic oil was removed, have marked effect on the concentration of the phytoconstituent & antioxidant activity of S. anacardium. Total phenolic content decreased up to 70 % (from 28.9 %w/w to 8.94 %w/w), while there is a negligible effect on the concentration of total flavonoid (7.51 %w/w to 7.43 %w/w) and total carbohydrate (0.907 %w/w to 0.853 % w/w) content. IC50& EC50 value of extract of S. anacardium before and after purification are 171.7 & 314.3 while EC50values are 280.μg/ml & 304. μg/ml, shows that antioxidant activity of S. anacardium is decreased but the safety profile of the drug is increased as the toxic phenolic oil was removed during Shodhana - An ayurvedic purification method.

Keywords: Semecarpus anacardium, Shodhana process, safety profile, improvement

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Biruk Wolde Eremacho

Abstract:

The Kombolcha to Desse road, linking Addis Ababa with Northern Ethiopia towns traverses through one of the most difficult mountainous ranges in Ethiopia. The presence of loose unconsolidated materials (colluvium materials), highly weathered and fractured basalt rocks high relief, steep natural slopes, nature of geologic formations exposed along the road section, poor drainage conditions, occurrence of high seasonal rains, and seismically active nature of the region created favorable condition for slope instability in the area. Thus, keeping in mind all above points the present study was conceived to study in detail the slope stability condition of the area. It was realized that detailed slope stability studies along this road section are very necessary to identify critical slopes and to provide the best remedial measures to minimize the slope instability problems which frequently disrupt and endanger the traffic movement on this important road. For the present study based on the field manifestation of instability two most critical slope sections were identified for detailed slope stability analysis. The deterministic slope stability analysis approach was followed to perform the detailed slope stability analysis of the selected slope sections. Factor of safety for the selected slope sections was determined for the different anticipated conditions (i.e., static and dynamic with varied water saturations) using Slope/W and Slide software. Both static and seismic slope stability analysis were carried out and factor of safety was deduced for each anticipated conditions. In general, detailed slope stability analysis of the two critical slope sections reveals that for only static dry condition both the slopes sections would be stable. However, for the rest anticipated conditions defined by static and dynamic situations with varied water saturations both critical slope sections would be unstable. Moreover, the causes of slope instability in the study area are governed by different factors; therefore integrated approaches of remedial measures are more appropriate to mitigate the possible slope instability in the study area. Depending on site condition and slope stability analysis result four types of suitable preventive and remedial measures are recommended namely; proper managements of drainages, retaining structures, gabions, and managing steeply cut slopes.

Keywords: factor of safety, remedial measures, slope stability analysis, static and dynamic condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Fahmida Khalique Nitu

Abstract:

Little is known on the biosafety level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in estuarine fish in Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in estuarine fishes using the Polymerase Chain Reaction( PCR) method . The study was conducted on 37 fishes of different species from different types of estuarine fish commonly sold at city markets. Sampling was done on the intestinal tract and gills of each fish. The prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus was found to be 29.72% with higher percentages detected in samples from the gills (89.28%) followed by the intestinal tract (10.71%). The density of Vibrio spp. in the gill of estuarine fishes with an average was 4.4 x103CFU/g and in the intestine samples was 1.5x103 CFU/g. The outcome of the biosafety assessment V. parahaemolyticus in estuarine fish indicates another potential source of food safety issues to consumers.

Keywords: biosafety, estuarine, prevalence, Vibrios

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

Abstract:

The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Hanan Algarni

Abstract:

Background: Impairment of walking and balance skills has negative impact on functional independence and community participation after stroke. Gait recovery is considered a primary goal in rehabilitation by both patients and physiotherapists. Treadmill training coupled with virtual reality technology is a new emerging approach that offers patients with feedback, open and random skills practice while walking and interacting with virtual environmental scenes. Objectives: To synthesize the evidence around the effects of the VR treadmill training on gait speed and balance primarily, functional independence and community participation secondarily in stroke patients. Methods: Systematic review was conducted; search strategy included electronic data bases: MEDLINE, AMED, Cochrane, CINAHL, EMBASE, PEDro, Web of Science, and unpublished literature. Inclusion criteria: Participant: adult >18 years, stroke, ambulatory, without severe visual or cognitive impartments. Intervention: VR treadmill training alone or with physiotherapy. Comparator: any other interventions. Outcomes: gait speed, balance, function, community participation. Characteristics of included studies were extracted for analysis. Risk of bias assessment was performed using Cochrane's ROB tool. Narrative synthesis of findings was undertaken and summary of findings in each outcome was reported using GRADEpro. Results: Four studies were included involving 84 stroke participants with chronic hemiparesis. Interventions intensity ranged (6-12 sessions, 20 minutes-1 hour/session). Three studies investigated the effects on gait speed and balance. 2 studies investigated functional outcomes and one study assessed community participation. ROB assessment showed 50% unclear risk of selection bias and 25% of unclear risk of detection bias across the studies. Heterogeneity was identified in the intervention effects at post training and follow up. Outcome measures, training intensity and durations also varied across the studies, grade of evidence was low for balance, moderate for speed and function outcomes, and high for community participation. However, it is important to note that grading was done on few numbers of studies in each outcome. Conclusions: The summary of findings suggests positive and statistically significant effects (p<0.05) of VR treadmill training compared to other interventions on gait speed, dynamic balance skills, function and participation directly after training. However, the effects were not sustained at follow up in two studies (2 weeks-1 month) and other studies did not perform follow up measurements. More RCTs with larger sample sizes and higher methodological quality are required to examine the long term effects of VR treadmill effects on function independence and community participation after stroke, in order to draw conclusions and produce stronger robust evidence.

Keywords: virtual reality, treadmill, stroke, gait rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Fatemeh Mohajeri

Abstract:

Road traffic accidents lead to a higher rate of death and injury, especially in vulnerable road users such as pedestrians. Improving the safety of facilities for pedestrians is a major concern for policymakers because of the high number of pedestrian fatalities and direct and indirect costs which are imposed to the society. This study focuses on the idea of determining the willingness to pay of pedestrians for increasing their safety while crossing the street. In this study, three different scenarios including crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities, crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a pedestrian traffic light and constructing a pedestrian bridge with escalator are presented. The research was conducted based on stated preferences method. The required data were collected from a questionnaire that consisted of three parts: pedestrian’s demographic characteristics, travel characteristics and scenarios. Four different payment amounts are presented for each scenario and a logit model has been built for each proposed payment. The results show that sex, age, education, average household income and individual salary have significant effect on choosing a scenario. Among the policies that have been mentioned through the questionnaire scenarios, the scenario of crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a traffic lights is the most frequent, with willingness to pay 10,000 Rials and the scenario of crossing the street with a zebra crossing with a willingness to pay 100,000 Rials having the least frequency. For all scenarios, as the payment is increasing, the willingness to pay decreases.

Keywords: pedestrians, willingness to pay, safety, immunization

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Katerine Moraes dos Satons, Gisele Massante Peixoto Tracera, Regina Célia Gollner Zeitoune

Abstract:

To analyze the psychosocial risks related to the organization of nursing work in outpatient clinics of university hospitals. Cross-sectional epidemiological study developed in 11 outpatient units linked to the three public universities of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Participants were 388 nursing professionals who worked in patient care at the time of the research. Data were collected from July to December 2018, using a self-applicable instrument. A questionnaire was used for sociodemographic, occupational and health characterization, and the Work Organization Scale. The bivariate analyses were performed using the odds ratio (OR), with a confidence interval of 95%, significance level of 5%. The organization of nursing work received an assessment of medium psychosocial risk by the professionals participating in the research, demanding interventions in the short and medium term. There was no association between sociodemographic, occupational and health characteristics and the organization of outpatient work. Interventional measures should be performed in the psychosocial risk factors presented in this research, with a view to improving the work environment, so that the importance of maintaining satisfactory material conditions is considered, as well as the adequate quantity of human resources. In addition, it aims to expand the spaces of nursing participation in decision- making, strengthening its autonomy as a profession.

Keywords: occupational risks, nursing, nursing team, worker’s health, psychosocial risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Jen Wang, Wei-Chia Hsu, Zih-Sin Wang, Ching-Ping Chu, Bo-Shiou Guo

Abstract:

In the late 19th century, the Jinguashi ore deposit in northern Taiwan was discovered, and accompanied with flourishing mining activities. However, tons of contaminants including heavy metals, sulfur dioxide, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were released to surroundings and caused environmental problems. Site T was one of copper smelter located on the coastal hill near Jinguashi ore deposit. In over ten years of operation, variety contaminants were emitted that it polluted the surrounding soil and groundwater quality. In order to exhaust fumes produced from smelting process, three stacks were built along the hill behind the factory. The sediment inside the stacks contains high concentration of heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, copper, etc. Moreover, soil around the discarded stacks suffered a serious contamination when deposition leached from the ruptures of stacks. Consequently, Site T (including the factory and its surroundings) was declared as a pollution remediation site that visiting the site and land-use activities on it are forbidden. However, the natural landscape and cultural attractions of Site T are spectacular that it attracts a lot of visitors annually. Moreover, land resources are extremely precious in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) is actively promoting the contaminated land revitalization policy. Therefore, this study took Site T as case study for brownfield revitalization planning to the limits of activate and remediate the natural resources. Land-use suitability analysis and risk mapping were applied in this study to make appropriate risk management measures and redevelopment plan for the site. In land-use suitability analysis, surrounding factors into consideration such as environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land use, contamination, culture, and landscapes were collected to assess the development of each area; health risk mapping was introduced to show the image of risk assessments results based on the site contamination investigation. According to land-use suitability analysis, the site was divided into four zones: priority area (for high-efficiency development), secondary area (for co-development with priority area), conditional area (for reusing existing building) and limited area (for Eco-tourism and education). According to the investigation, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), heavy metals and TPH were considered as target contaminants while oral, inhalation and dermal would be the major exposure pathways in health risk assessment. In accordance with health risk map, the highest risk was found in the southwest and eastern side. Based on the results, the development plan focused on zoning and land use. Site T was recommended be divides to public facility zone, public architectonic art zone, viewing zone, existing building preservation zone, historic building zone, and cultural landscape zone for various purpose. In addition, risk management measures including sustained remediation, extinguish exposure and administration management are applied to ensure particular places are suitable for visiting and protect the visitors’ health. The consolidated results are corroborated available by analyzing aspects of law, land acquired method, maintenance and management and public participation. Therefore, this study has a certain reference value to promote the contaminated land revitalization policy in Taiwan.

Keywords: brownfield revitalization, land-use suitability analysis, health risk map, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Cristiana Ortigão, Antonio Couto, Thiago Gabriel

Abstract:

In the wake of Samarco Fundão’s failure in 2015 followed by Vale’s Brumadinho disaster in 2019, the Brazilian National Mining Agency started a comprehensive dam safety programmed to rank dam safety risks and establish monitoring and analysis procedures. This paper focuses on the use of accelerometers for static and dynamic applications. Static applications may employ tiltmeters, as an example shown later in this paper. Dynamic monitoring of a structure with accelerometers yields its dynamic signature and this technique has also been successfully used in Brazil and this paper gives an example of tailings dam.

Keywords: instrumentation, dynamic, monitoring, tailings, dams, tiltmeters, automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Mamta Rana, K. K. Singh, Nisha Kumari

Abstract:

The simulation models with its soil-weather-plant atmosphere interacting system are important tools for assessing the crops in changing climate conditions. The CERES-Wheat & Rice vs. 4.6 DSSAT was calibrated and evaluated for one of the major producers of wheat and rice state- Haryana, India. The simulation runs were made under irrigated conditions and three fertilizer applications dose of N-P-K to estimate crop yield and other growth parameters along with the phenological development of the crop. The genetic coefficients derived by iteratively manipulating the relevant coefficients that characterize the phenological process of wheat and rice crop to the best fit match between the simulated and observed anthesis, physological maturity and final grain yield. The model validated by plotting the simulated and remote sensing derived LAI. LAI product from remote sensing provides the edge of spatial, timely and accurate assessment of crop. For validating the yield and yield components, the error percentage between the observed and simulated data was calculated. The analysis shows that the model can be used to simulate crop yield and yield components for wheat and rice cultivar under different management practices. During the validation, the error percentage was less than 10%, indicating the utility of the calibrated model for climate risk assessment in the selected region.

Keywords: simulation model, CERES-wheat and rice model, crop yield, genetic coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: S. Kaira, S. Mohamed, A. Rahman

Abstract:

Traditionally, highway infrastructure projects are initiated based on their economic benefits, thereafter environmental, social and governance impacts are addressed discretely for the selected project from a set of pre-determined alternatives. When opting for cost-benefit analysis (CBA), multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) has been used as the default assessment tool. But this tool has been critiqued as it does not mimic the real-world dynamic environment. Indeed, it is because of the fact that public sector projects like highways have to experience intense exposure to dynamic environments. Therefore, it is essential to appreciate the impacts of various dynamic factors (factors that change or progress with the system) on project performance. Thus, this paper presents various sustainability assessment tools that have been globally developed to determine sustainability performance of infrastructure projects during the design, procurement and commissioning phase. Indeed, identification of the current gaps in the available assessment methods provides a potential to add prominent part of knowledge in the field of ‘road project development systems and procedures’ that are generally used by road agencies.

Keywords: dynamic impact factors, micro and macro factors, sustainability assessment framework, sustainability performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

Abstract:

There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: M. de Miguel Molina, V. Santamarina Campos, M. V. Segarra Oña, B. de Miguel Molina

Abstract:

Safety and security concerns play a key role during the design of civil UAs (aircraft controlled by a pilot who is not onboard it) by the producers and the offer of different services by the operators. At present, European countries have fragmented regulations about the manufacture and use of civil drones, therefore the European institutions are trying to approach all these regulations into a common one. In this sense, not only law but also ethics can give guidelines to the industry in order to obtain better reports from their clients. With our results, we would like to give advice to the European industry, as well as give new insights to the academia and policymakers.

Keywords: ethics, regulation, safety, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 670

Authors: Sebastian Hiergeist

Abstract:

It is a common view that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) tend to migrate into the civil airspace. This trend is challenging UAV manufacturer in plenty ways, as there come up a lot of new requirements and functional aspects. On the higher application levels, this might be collision detection and avoidance and similar features, whereas all these functions only act as input for the flight control components of the aircraft. The flight control computer (FCC) is the central component when it comes up to ensure a continuous safe flight and landing. As these systems are flight critical, they have to be built up redundantly to be able to provide a Fail-Operational behavior. Recent architectural approaches of FCCs used in UAV systems are often based on very simple microprocessors in combination with proprietary Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) or Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) extensions implementing the whole redundancy functionality. In the future, such simple microprocessors may not be available anymore as they are more and more replaced by higher sophisticated System on Chip (SoC). As the avionic industry cannot provide enough market power to significantly influence the development of new semiconductor products, the use of solutions from foreign markets is almost inevitable. Products stemming from the industrial market developed according to IEC 61508, or automotive SoCs, according to ISO 26262, can be seen as candidates as they have been developed for similar environments. Current available SoC from the industrial or automotive sector provides quite a broad selection of interfaces like, i.e., Ethernet, SPI or FlexRay, that might come into account for the implementation of a redundancy network. In this context, possible network architectures shall be investigated which could be established by using the interfaces stated above. Of importance here is the avoidance of any single point of failures, as well as a proper segregation in distinct fault containment regions. The performed analysis is supported by the use of guidelines, published by the aviation authorities (FAA and EASA), on the reliability of data networks. The main focus clearly lies on the reachable level of safety, but also other aspects like performance and determinism play an important role and are considered in the research. Due to the further increase in design complexity of recent and future SoCs, also the risk of design errors, which might lead to common mode faults, increases. Thus in the context of this work also the aspect of dissimilarity will be considered to limit the effect of design errors. To achieve this, the work is limited to broadly available interfaces available in products from the most common silicon manufacturer. The resulting work shall support the design of future UAV FCCs by giving a guideline on building up a redundancy network between SoCs, solely using on board interfaces. Therefore the author will provide a detailed usability analysis on available interfaces provided by recent SoC solutions, suggestions on possible redundancy architectures based on these interfaces and an assessment of the most relevant characteristics of the suggested network architectures, like e.g. safety or performance.

Keywords: redundancy, System-on-Chip, UAV, flight control computer (FCC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Anass Rahouti, Guillaume Salze, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Sélim Datoussaïd

Abstract:

In healthcare facilities, training the staff for firefighting and evacuation in real buildings is very challenging due to the presence of a vulnerable population in such an environment. In a standard environment, traditional approaches, such as fire drills, are often used to train the occupants and provide them with information about fire safety procedures. However, those traditional approaches may be inappropriate for a vulnerable population and can be inefficient from an educational viewpoint as it is impossible to expose the occupants to scenarios similar to a real emergency. Immersive serious games could be used as an alternative to traditional approaches to overcome their limitations. Serious games are already being used in different safety domains such as fires, earthquakes and terror attacks for several building types (e.g., office buildings, train stations, tunnels, etc.). In this study, we developed an immersive serious game to improve the fire safety skills of staff in healthcare facilities. An accurate representation of the healthcare environment was built in Unity3D by including visual and audio stimuli inspired from those employed in commercial action games. The serious game is organised in three levels. In each of them, the trainee is presented with a specific fire emergency and s/he can perform protective actions (e.g., firefighting, helping non-ambulant occupants, etc.) or s/he can ignore the opportunity for action and continue the evacuation. In this paper, we describe all the steps required to develop such a prototype, as well as the key questions that need to be answered, to develop a serious game for firefighting and evacuation in healthcare facilities.

Keywords: fire safety, healthcare, serious game, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

Abstract:

The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar

Abstract:

As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.

Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 25

Authors: Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

Abstract:

In this study, a comprehensive computer simulated person (CSP) that integrates computational human model (virtual manikin) and respiratory tract model (virtual airway), was applied for estimation of indoor environmental quality. Moreover, an inclusive prediction method was established by integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with advanced CSP which is combined with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, unsteady thermoregulation model for analysis targeting micro-climate around human body and respiratory area with high accuracy. This comprehensive method can estimate not only the contaminant inhalation but also constant interaction in the contaminant transfer between indoor spaces, i.e., a target area for indoor air quality (IAQ) assessment, and respiratory zone for health risk assessment. This study focused on the usage of the CSP as an air/thermal quality sensor in indoors, which means the application of comprehensive model for assessment of IAQ and thermal environmental quality. Demonstrative analysis was performed in order to examine the applicability of the comprehensive model to the heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) control scheme. CSP was located at the center of the simple model room which has dimension of 3m×3m×3m. Formaldehyde which is generated from floor material was assumed as a target contaminant, and flow field, sensible/latent heat and contaminant transfer analysis in indoor space were conducted by using CFD simulation coupled with CSP. In this analysis, thermal comfort was evaluated by thermoregulatory analysis, and respiratory exposure risks represented by adsorption flux/concentration at airway wall surface were estimated by PBPK-CFD hybrid analysis. These Analysis results concerning IAQ and thermal comfort will be fed back to the HVAC control and could be used to find a suitable ventilation rate and energy requirement for air conditioning system.

Keywords: CFD simulation, computer simulated person, HVAC control, indoor environmental quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Oluwabukola Oluwaseyi Oduntan

Abstract:

The English Language plays a central and strategic role in the school system because almost all the school subjects are taught using the English language. However, students’ achievement in this subject at senior secondary school is not encouraging. Therefore, this study examined the effects of oral-written mode of assessment on senior secondary school students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It also examined the moderating effects of students’ gender and class on students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. The study adopted a pretest-posttest, control group, quasi-experimental design with a 2x2x3 factorial matrix. The participant consisted of 140 Senior Secondary II students drawn from four intact classes from four schools randomly selected from four Local Government Areas randomly selected from Oyo town in Oyo State. Two schools were assigned each to the treatment group and the control group. The following instruments were used for the study: Descriptive Essay Achievement Test (r = 0.78); Descriptive Achievement Test Marking Scheme; Check List of Oral-Written Assessment and Teachers’ Instructional Guide on Descriptive Essay (r = 0.81). Seven null hypotheses guided the study and tested at 0.05 level of significance. Data were analyzed using Analysis of Covariance, Estimated Marginal Means and Scheffe post-hoc test. The result revealed that treatment had a significant main effect on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F(1,127) = 25.407, P < .05, η2 = .167). Students exposed to oral-written assessment had a higher achievement scores ((x ) ̅= 36.15) than those exposed to written assessment ((x ) ̅= 28.55). There was no significant main effect of gender on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .349, P > .05, η2 = .003). The result also revealed that the effects of class was not significant on students’ students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .679, P > .05, η2 = .006). Oral-written mode of assessment enhanced students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It is, therefore, recommended that teachers and curriculum developers should adopt the use of oral-written assessment for better improvement of students’ achievement in a descriptive essay.

Keywords: class, gender, oral-written assessment, written assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Mahmud Abdulkader, Tobias Rinke De Wit, Britta C. Urban, Feyissa Chala, Yazezew Kebede, Dawit Welday

Abstract:

Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are a reliable surrogate for interleukin-6 bioactivity that plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of cytokine storm associated with severe COVID-19. There is a lack of data on the role of CRP as a determinant of COVID-19 severity status in the African context. Methods: We determined the longitudinal kinetics of CRP levels on 78 RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients (49 non-severe and 29 severe cases) and 50 PCR-negative controls. Results: COVID-19 patients had overall significantly elevated CRP at baseline when compared to PCR-negative controls [median 11.1 (IQR: 2.0-127.8) mg/L vs. 0.9 (IQR: 0.5-1.9) mg/L; p=0.0004)]. Moreover, severe COVID-19 patients had significantly higher median CRP levels than non-severe cases [166.1 (IQR: 48.6-332.5) mg/L vs. 2.4 (IQR: 1.2-7.6) mg/L; p<0.00001)]. In addition, persistently elevated levels of CRP were exhibited among those with comorbidities and higher age groups. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis of CRP levels distinguished PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients from the ones with PCR-negative non-COVID-19 individuals, with an AUC value of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68-0.84; p=0.001). Moreover, it clearly distinguished severe from non-severe COVID-19 patients, with an AUC value of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.91). After adjusting for age and the presence of comorbidities, CRP levels above 30 mg/L were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 (adjusted relative risk 3.99 (95%CI: 1.35-11.82; p=0.013). Conclusions: Determining CRP levels in COVID-19 patients in African settings may provide a simple, prompt, and inexpensive assessment of the severity status at baseline and monitoring of treatment outcomes.

Keywords: CRP, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, biomarker

Procedia PDF Downloads 82