Search results for: SPI (Seoul Pavement Index)

Authors: Diana Reckien

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Vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to support policy-making in complex environments, like urban areas. Usually, vulnerability studies include the construction of aggregate (sub-) indices and the subsequent mapping of indices across an area of interest. Vulnerability studies show a couple of advantages: they are great communication tools, can inform a wider general debate about environmental issues, and can help allocating and efficiently targeting scarce resources for adaptation policy and planning. However, they also have a number of challenges: Vulnerability assessments are constructed on the basis of a wide range of methodologies and there is no single framework or methodology that has proven to serve best in certain environments, indicators vary highly according to the spatial scale used, different variables and metrics produce different results, and aggregate or composite vulnerability indicators that are mapped easily distort or bias the picture of vulnerability as they hide the underlying causes of vulnerability and level out conflicting reasons of vulnerability in space. So, there is urgent need to further develop the methodology of vulnerability studies towards a common framework, which is one reason of the paper. We introduce a social vulnerability approach, which is compared with other approaches of bio-physical or sectoral vulnerability studies relatively developed in terms of a common methodology for index construction, guidelines for mapping, assessment of sensitivity, and verification of variables. Two approaches are commonly pursued in the literature. The first one is an additive approach, in which all potentially influential variables are weighted according to their importance for the vulnerability aspect, and then added to form a composite vulnerability index per unit area. The second approach includes variable reduction, mostly Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that reduces the number of variables that are interrelated into a smaller number of less correlating components, which are also added to form a composite index. We test these two approaches of constructing indices on the area of New York City as well as two different metrics of variables used as input and compare the outcome for the 5 boroughs of NY. Our analysis yields that the mapping exercise yields particularly different results in the outer regions and parts of the boroughs, such as Outer Queens and Staten Island. However, some of these parts, particularly the coastal areas receive the highest attention in the current adaptation policy. We imply from this that the current adaptation policy and practice in NY might need to be discussed, as these outer urban areas show relatively low social vulnerability as compared with the more central parts, i.e. the high dense areas of Manhattan, Central Brooklyn, Central Queens and the Southern Bronx. The inner urban parts receive lesser adaptation attention, but bear a higher risk of damage in case of hazards in those areas. This is conceivable, e.g., during large heatwaves, which would more affect more the inner and poorer parts of the city as compared with the outer urban areas. In light of the recent planning practice of NY one needs to question and discuss who in NY makes adaptation policy for whom, but the presented analyses points towards an under representation of the needs of the socially vulnerable population, such as the poor, the elderly, and ethnic minorities, in the current adaptation practice in New York City.

Keywords: vulnerability mapping, social vulnerability, additive approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), New York City, United States, adaptation, social sensitivity

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Authors: Charles Kwasi Antwi, Mohammad Naushad Emmambux, Natalia Rosa-Sibakov

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The consumption of high-fibre snacks is beneficial in reducing the prevalence of most non-communicable diseases and improving human health. However, using high-fibre flour to produce snacks by extrusion cooking reduces the expansion ratio of snacks, thereby decreasing sensory properties and consumer acceptability of the snack. The study determines the effects of adding Viscozyme®-treated sorghum bran on the properties of extruded sorghum snacks with the aim of producing high-fibre expanded snacks with acceptable quality. With a twin-screw extruder, sorghum endosperm flour [by decortication] with and without sorghum bran and with enzyme-treated sorghum bran was extruded at high shear rates with feed moisture of 20%, feed rate of 10 kg/hr, screw speed of 500 rpm, and temperature zones of 60°C, 70°C, 80°C, 140°C, and 140°C toward the die. The expanded snacks that resulted from this process were analysed in terms of their physical (expansion ratio, bulk density, colour profile), chemical (soluble and insoluble dietary fibre), and functional (water solubility index (WSI) and water absorption index (WAI)) characteristics. The expanded snacks produced from refined sorghum flour enriched with Viscozyme-treated bran had similar expansion ratios to refined sorghum flour extrudates, which were higher than those for untreated bran-sorghum extrudate. Sorghum extrudates without bran showed higher values of expansion ratio and low values of bulk density compared to the untreated bran extrudates. The enzyme-treated fibre increased the expansion ratio significantly with low bulk density values compared to untreated bran. Compared to untreated bran extrudates, WSI values in enzyme-treated samples increased, while WAI values decreased. Enzyme treatment of bran reduced particle size and increased soluble dietary fibre to increase expansion. Lower particle size suggests less interference with bubble formation at the die. Viscozyme-treated bran-sorghum composite flour could be used as raw material to produce high-fibre expanded snacks with improved physicochemical and functional properties.

Keywords: extrusion, sorghum bran, decortication, expanded snacks

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Authors: Majeda S. Hammoud

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Background and Aim: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication affecting around 14% of pregnancies globally that carries short and long-term consequences to the mother and her child. Pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity is the most consistently and strongly associated modifiable risk factor with GDM development. This analysis aimed to determine whether vitamin D status during pregnancy modulates the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity/overweight on GDM risk while stratifying by maternal age. Methods: Data from the Kuwait Birth Cohort (KBC) study were analyzed, which enrolled pregnant women in the second or third trimester of gestation. Pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) was categorized as under/normal weight (<25.0), overweight (25.0 to <30.0), and obesity (≥30.0). 25 hydroxyvitamin D levels were measured in blood samples that were collected at recruitment and categorized as deficiency (<50 nmol/L) and insufficiency/sufficiency (≥50 nmol/L). GDM status was ascertained according to international guidelines. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Results: The analyzed study sample included a total of 982 pregnant women, with a mean (SD) age of 31.4 (5.2) years. The prevalence of GDM was estimated to be 17.3% (95% CI: 14.9-19.7), and the prevalence of pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity was 37.8% (95% CI: 34.8-40.8) and 28.8% (95% CI: 26.0-31.7), respectively. The prevalence of gestational vitamin D deficiency was estimated to be 55.3% (95% CI: 52.2-58.4). The association between pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity with GDM risk differed according to maternal age and gestational vitamin D status (Pinteraction[BMI × age × vitamin D = 0.047). Among pregnant women aged <35 years, prepregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.50-8.86, p = 0.004) and vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 2.55, 95% CI: 1.16-5.61, p = 0.019). In contrast, among pregnant women aged ≥35 years, pre-pregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 9.70, 95% CI: 2.01-46.69, p = 0.005), but not among women with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 1.46, 95% CI: 0.42-5.16, p = 0.553). Conclusion: The effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk is modulated by maternal age and gestational vitamin D status, with the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity being more pronounced among older pregnant women (aged ≥35 years) with gestational vitamin D deficiency compared to those with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency. Whereas, among younger women (aged <35 years), the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk was not modulated by gestational vitamin D status. Therefore, vitamin D supplementation among pregnant women, specifically older women with pre-pregnancy obesity, may mitigate the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk.

Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus, vitamin D, obesity, body mass index

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Authors: Migena Mana, Ahmed Khalid Syed, Abdul Malik, Nikhil Cherian

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In recent years, advancements in deep learning enabled researchers to tackle the problem of self-driving cars. Car companies use huge datasets to train their deep learning models to make autonomous cars a reality. However, this approach has certain drawbacks in that the state space of possible actions for a car is so huge that there cannot be a dataset for every possible road scenario. To overcome this problem, the concept of reinforcement learning (RL) is being investigated in this research. Since the problem of autonomous driving can be modeled in a simulation, it lends itself naturally to the domain of reinforcement learning. The advantage of this approach is that we can model different and complex road scenarios in a simulation without having to deploy in the real world. The autonomous agent can learn to drive by finding the optimal policy. This learned model can then be easily deployed in a real-world setting. In this project, we focus on three RL algorithms: Q-learning, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). To model the environment, we have used TORCS (The Open Racing Car Simulator), which provides us with a strong foundation to test our model. The inputs to the algorithms are the sensor data provided by the simulator such as velocity, distance from side pavement, etc. The outcome of this research project is a comparative analysis of these algorithms. Based on the comparison, the PPO algorithm gives the best results. When using PPO algorithm, the reward is greater, and the acceleration, steering angle and braking are more stable compared to the other algorithms, which means that the agent learns to drive in a better and more efficient way in this case. Additionally, we have come up with a dataset taken from the training of the agent with DDPG and PPO algorithms. It contains all the steps of the agent during one full training in the form: (all input values, acceleration, steering angle, break, loss, reward). This study can serve as a base for further complex road scenarios. Furthermore, it can be enlarged in the field of computer vision, using the images to find the best policy.

Keywords: autonomous driving, DDPG (deep deterministic policy gradient), PPO (proximal policy optimization), reinforcement learning

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Authors: Qiankun Zhong

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In a global cultural context, film festival awards become authorities to define the aesthetic value of films. To study which genres and producing countries are valued by different film festivals and how those evaluations interact with each other, this research explored the interactions between the film festivals through their selection of movies and the factors that lead to the tendency of film festivals to nominate the same movies. To do this, the author employed a two-mode network on the movies that won the highest awards at five international film festivals with the highest attendance in the past ten years (the Venice Film Festival, the Cannes Film Festival, the Toronto International Film Festival, Sundance Film Festival, and the Berlin International Film Festival) and the film festivals that nominated those movies. The title, genre, producing country and language of 50 movies, and the range (regional, national or international) and organizing country or area of 129 film festivals were collected. These created networks connected by nominating the same films and awarding the same movies. The author then assessed the density and centrality of these networks to answer the question: What are the film festivals that tend to have more shared values with other festivals? Based on the Eigenvector centrality of the two-mode network, Palm Springs, Robert Festival, Toronto, Chicago, and San Sebastian are the festivals that tend to nominate commonly appreciated movies. In contrast, Black Movie Film Festival has the unique value of generally not sharing nominations with other film festivals. A homophily test was applied to access the clustering effects of film and film festivals. The result showed that movie genres (E-I index=0.55) and geographic location (E-I index=0.35) are possible indicators of film festival clustering. A blockmodel was also created to examine the structural roles of the film festivals and their meaning in real-world context. By analyzing the same blocks with film festival attributes, it was identified that film festivals either organized in the same area, with the same history, or with the same attitude on independent films would occupy the same structural roles in the network. Through the interpretation of the blocks, language was identified as an indicator that contributes to the role position of a film festival. Comparing the result of blockmodeling in the different periods, it is seen that international film festivals contrast with the Hollywood industry’s dominant value. The structural role dynamics provide evidence for a multi-value film festival network.

Keywords: film festivals, film studies, media industry studies, network analysis

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS) defined as the ratio of “Tmax - Tcrit_h” to “Tlimit_h - Tcrit_h” where Tmax, Tcrit_h and Tlimit_h represent the daily maximum temperature (°C), critical high temperature threshold (°C) and limiting high temperature threshold (°C) of rapeseed crop respectively; cold degree days (CDD) as the difference between daily Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tcrit_l (critical low temperature threshold); and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) as the product of fHS and attainable rapeseed yield in the same land pixel were established. The values of fHS and CDD, percentages of days experiencing each stress and fRPL were investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Yang Xinyu, Gong Cong, Hu Changjuan

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Stairway spaces are a crucial component of the pathway systems and vertical transportation networks in mountain city parks. These spaces are closely integrated with the undulating terrain of mountain environments, resulting in continuously changing spatial conditions that can significantly influence participants' behavioral characteristics, thereby affecting their perception. EEG signals, which have been proven to reflect various non-attentive physiological activities in the brain, are widely used in studies related to stress recovery effects and emotional perception. Existing research predominantly examines the impact of spatial characteristics and landscape elements of trails and greenways in plain cities on participants' perception, utilizing EEG signals in laboratory-simulated environments. These studies have preliminarily revealed the relationship between spatial environments and perception preferences. However, on-site ergonomics research in mountain environments remains relatively underdeveloped. To address this gap, the Stairway spaces in Pipashan Park, Chongqing, were selected as the research object. Wearable hydrogel EEG devices were employed to monitor participants' EEG data in real environments, and a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) was constructed to explore differences in participants' perception under different paths and modes of movement, as well as the impact of visual and auditory environmental elements within each path on their perception. The model analysis results indicate significant differences in EEG data across different paths and movement modes. Additionally, typical mountainous spatial characteristics, such as openness, green view index, and elevation difference, are identified as key factors influencing participants' EEG data. Higher levels of natural sound and green view index were shown to effectively alleviate participants' stress perception in mountain stairway spaces. The findings reveal the intrinsic connections between environment, behavior, and perception in stairway spaces of mountain city parks, providing a theoretical basis for optimizing the design of stairway spaces in mountain cities.

Keywords: audio-visual perception, EEG monitoring, mountain city park, real environment, stairway space

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Authors: L. Korpinen, T. Kava, I. Salmi

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This study aimed to describe the operating model of obstructive sleep apnea. Due to the large number of patients, the role of nurses in the diagnosis and treatment of sleep apnea was important. Pulmonary physicians met only a minority of the patients. The sleep apnea study in 2018 included about 800 patients, of which about 28% were normal and 180 patients were classified as severe (apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] over 30). The operating model has proven to be workable and appropriate. The patients understand well that they may not be referred to a pulmonary doctor. However, specialized medical follow-up on professional drivers continues every year.

Keywords: sleep, apnea patient, operating model, hospital

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Authors: Kanokwan Tangchitnusorn, Patcharawalai Wongboonsin

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Following the ‘Golden Age of Welfare’ which enabled post-war prosperity to European citizens in 1950s, the world has witnessed the increasing mobility across borders of older citizens of First World countries. Then, in 1990s, the international retirement migration (IRM) of older persons has become a prominent trend, in which, it requires the integration of several fields of knowledge to explain, i.e. migration studies, tourism studies, as well as, social gerontology. However, while the studies of the IRM to developed destinations in Europe (e.g. Spain, Malta, Portugal, Italy), and the IRM to developing countries like Mexico, Panama, and Morocco have been largely studied in recent decades due to their massive migration volume, the study of the IRM to remoter destinations has been far more relatively sparse and incomplete. Developing countries in Southeast Asia have noticed the increasing number of retired expats, particularly to Thailand, where the number of foreigners applying for retirement visa increased from 10,709 in 2005 to 60,046 in 2014. Additionally, it was evident that the majority of Thailand’s retirement visa applicants were Westerners, i.e. citizens of the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, and the Nordic countries, respectively. As such trend just becoming popular in Thailand in recent decades, little is known about the IRM populations, their well-being, and their future migration plans. This study aimed to examine the subjective wellbeing or the self-evaluations of own well-being among Western retirees in Thailand, as well as, their future migration plans as whether they planned to stay here for life or otherwise. The author employed a mixed method to obtain both quantitative and qualitative data during October 2015 – May 2016, including 330 self-administered questionnaires (246 online and 84 hard-copied responses), and 21 in-depth interviews of the Western residents in Nan (2), Pattaya (4), and Chiang Mai (15). As derived from the integration of previous subjective well-being measurements (i.e. Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI), Global AgeWatch Index, and OECD guideline on measuring subjective wellbeing), this study would measure the subjective well-being of Western retirees in Thailand in 7 dimensions, including standard of living, health status, personal relationships, social connections, environmental quality, personal security and local infrastructure.

Keywords: international retirement migration, ageing, mobility, wellbeing, Western, Thailand

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Authors: Neda Orak, Mostafa Zarei

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Environmental assessment is an important session in environment management. Since various methods and techniques have been produces and implemented. Remote sensing (RS) is widely used in many scientific and research fields such as geology, cartography, geography, agriculture, forestry, land use planning, environment, etc. It can show earth surface objects cyclical changes. Also, it can show earth phenomena limits on basis of electromagnetic reflectance changes and deviations records. The research has been done on mangrove forests assessment by RS techniques. Mangrove forests quantitative analysis in Basatin and Bidkhoon estuaries was the aim of this research. It has been done by Landsat satellite images from 1975- 2013 and match to ground control points. This part of mangroves are the last distribution in northern hemisphere. It can provide a good background to improve better management on this important ecosystem. Landsat has provided valuable images to earth changes detection to researchers. This research has used MSS, TM, +ETM, OLI sensors from 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003-2013. Changes had been studied after essential corrections such as fix errors, bands combination, georeferencing on 2012 images as basic image, by maximum likelihood and IPVI Index. It was done by supervised classification. 2004 google earth image and ground points by GPS (2010-2012) was used to compare satellite images obtained changes. Results showed mangrove area in bidkhoon was 1119072 m2 by GPS and 1231200 m2 by maximum likelihood supervised classification and 1317600 m2 by IPVI in 2012. Basatin areas is respectively: 466644 m2, 88200 m2, 63000 m2. Final results show forests have been declined naturally. It is due to human activities in Basatin. The defect was offset by planting in many years. Although the trend has been declining in recent years again. So, it mentioned satellite images have high ability to estimation all environmental processes. This research showed high correlation between images and indexes such as IPVI and NDVI with ground control points.

Keywords: IPVI index, Landsat sensor, maximum likelihood supervised classification, Nayband National Park

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Authors: Tabassum Riaz

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This study provides a complete examination of the stock prices behavior in the Karachi stock exchange. It examines that whether Karachi stock exchange can be described as mean reversion or not. For this purpose daily, weekly and monthly index data from Karachi stock exchange ranging from period July 1, 1997 to July 2, 2011 was taken. After employing the Multiple variance ratio and unit root tests it is concluded that stock market follow mean reversion behavior and hence have reverting trend which opens the door for the active invest management. Thus technical analysis may be help to identify the potential areas for value creation.

Keywords: mean reversion, random walk, technical analysis, Karachi stock exchange

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Authors: Suzan Sayegh, Izzeldin Ibrahim, Mercia Van Der Walt, Mohamed Al-Kuwari

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Background: Walking is the most common form of physical activity which can promote a healthy well-being among people of different age groups. In this regard, pedometers are becoming more popular within research and are considered useful tools in monitoring physical activity levels based on individuals’ daily steps. A value of ˂5,000 steps/day is identified as a sedentary lifestyle index where individuals are physically inactive. Those achieving 5,000-7,499 steps/day have a low active lifestyle as they do not meet the moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) recommendations. Moreover, individuals achieving ≥7,500 steps/day are classified as physically active. The objective of this study is to assess the physical activity levels of adult population in Qatar through a pedometer-based program over a one-year period. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis, as part of a longitudinal study, was carried out over one year to assess the daily step count. “Step into Health” is a community-based program launched by Aspire as an approach for the purpose of improving physical activity across the population of Qatar. The program involves distribution of pedometers to registered members which is supported by a self-monitoring online account and linked to a web database. Daily habitual physical activity (daily total step count) was assessed through Omron HJ-324U pedometer. Analyses were done on data extracted from the web database. Results: A total of 1,988 members were included in this study (males: n=1,143, 57%; females: n=845, 43%). Average age was 37.8±10.9 years distributed as 60% of age between age 25-54 (n=1,186), 27% of age 45-64 (n=546), and 13% of age 18-24 years (n=256). Majority were non-Qataris, 81% (n=1,609) compared with 19% of the Qatari nationality (n=379). Average body mass index (BMI) was 27.8±6.1 (kg/m2) where most of them (41%, n=809) were found to be overweight, between 25-30 kg/m2. Total average step count was 5,469±3,884. Majority were found to be sedentary (n=1110, 55.8%). Middle aged individuals were more active than the other two age groups. Males were seen as more active than females. Those who were less active had a higher BMI. Older individuals were more active. There was a variation in the physical activity level throughout the year period. Conclusion: It is essential to further develop the available intervention programs and increase their physical activity behavior. Planning such physical activity interventions for female population should involve aspects such as time, environmental variables and aerobic steps.

Keywords: adults, pedometer, physical activity, step-count

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Zuoji Huang, Jinyan Sun, Chunlin Wang, Haiming Qian, Nan Xu

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The spatial extent and area of central river bars can always vary due to the impact of water level, sediment supply and human activities. In 2016, a catastrophic flood disaster caused by sustained and heavy rainfall happened in the middle and lower Yangtze River. The flood led to the most serious economic and social loss since 1954, and strongly affected the central river bar. It is essential to continuously monitor the dynamics change of central bars because it can avoid frequent field measurements in central bars before and after the flood disaster and is helpful for flood warning. This paper focused on the dynamic change of central bars of Phoenix bar and Changsha bar in the Yangtze River in 2016. In this study, GF-1 (GaoFen-1) WFV(wide field view) data was employed owing to its high temporal frequency and high spatial resolution. A simple NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) method was utilized for river central bar mapping. Human-checking was then performed to ensure the mapping quality. The relationship between the area of central bars and the measured water level was estimated using four mathematical models. Furthermore, a risk assessment index was proposed to map the spatial pattern of inundation risk of central bars. The results indicate a good ability of the GF-1 WFV imagery with a 16-m spatial resolution to characterize the seasonal variation of central river bars and to capture the impact of a flood disaster on the area of central bars. This paper observed a significant negative but nonlinear relationship between the water level and the area of central bars, and found that the cubic function fits best among four models (R² = 0.9839, P < 0.000001, RMSE = 0.4395). The maximum of the inundated area of central bars appeared during the rainy season on July 8, 2016, and the minimum occurred during the dry season on December 28, 2016, which are consistent with the water level measured by the hydrological station. The results derived from GF-1 data could provide a useful reference for decision-making of real-time disaster early warning and post-disaster reconstruction.

Keywords: central bars, dynamic change, water level, the Yangtze river

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Authors: Giovana Longo-Silva, Risia Cristina Egito de Menezes, Renan Serenini, Márcia de Oliveira Lima, Júlia Souza de Melo, Larissa de Lima Soares

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Introduction: Sleep duration and quality have been increasingly recognized as important factors affecting overall health and well-being, including their potential impact on body weight and composition. Previous research has shown inconsistent results regarding the association between sleep patterns and body mass index (BMI), particularly among diverse populations such as Brazilian adults. Understanding these relationships is crucial for developing targeted interventions to address obesity and related health issues. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the association between sleep duration, insomnia, and BMI among Brazilian adults using data from a large national survey focused on chronic nutrition and sleep habits. Materials and Methods: The study included 2050 participants from a population-based virtual survey. BMI was calculated using self-reported weight and height measurements. Participants also reported usual bedtime and wake time on weekdays and weekends and whether they experienced symptoms of insomnia. The average sleep duration across the entire week was calculated as follows: [(5×sleep duration on weekdays) + (2×sleep duration on weekends)]/7. Linear regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between sleep duration, insomnia, and BMI, adjusting for potential confounding factors, including age, sex, marital status, physical exercise duration, and diet quality. Results: After adjusting for confounding variables, the study found that BMI decreased by 0.19 kg/m² for each additional hour of sleep duration (95% CI = -0.37, -0.02; P = 0.03). Conversely, individuals with insomnia had a higher BMI, with an increase of 0.75 kg/m² (95% CI = 0.28, 1.22; P = 0.002) compared to those without insomnia. Conclusions: The findings suggest a significant association between sleep duration, insomnia, and BMI among Brazilian adults. Longer sleep duration was associated with lower BMI, while insomnia was associated with higher BMI. These results underscore the importance of considering sleep patterns in strategies aimed at preventing and managing obesity in this population. Further research is needed to explore the underlying mechanisms and potential interventions targeting sleep-related factors to promote healthier body weight outcomes.

Keywords: sleep, obesity, chronobiology, nutrition

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Souzan Al Sayegh, Izzeldin Ibrahim, Mercia Van Der Walt, Mohamed Al-Kuwari

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Background: Walking is the most common form of physical activity which can promote a healthy well-being among people of different age groups. In this regard, pedometers are becoming more popular within research and are considered useful tools in monitoring physical activity levels based on individuals’ daily steps. A value of ˂5,000 steps/day is identified as a sedentary lifestyle index where individuals are physically inactive. Those achieving 5,000-7,499 steps/day have a low active lifestyle as they do not meet the moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) recommendations. Moreover, individuals achieving ≥7,500 steps/day are classified as physically active. The objective of this study is to assess the physical activity levels of adult population in Qatar through a pedometer-based program over a one-year period. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis, as part of a longitudinal study, was carried out over one year to assess the daily step count. 'Step into Health' is a community-based program launched by Aspire as an approach for the purpose of improving physical activity across the population of Qatar. The program involves the distribution of pedometers to registered members which is supported by a self-monitoring online account and linked to a web database. Daily habitual physical activity (daily total step count) was assessed through Omron HJ-324U pedometer. Analyses were done on data extracted from the web database. Results: A total of 1,988 members were included in this study (males: n=1,143, 57%; females: n=845, 43%). Average age was 37.8±10.9 years distributed as 60% of age between age 25-54 (n=1,186), 27% of age 45-64 (n=546), and 13% of age 18-24 years (n=256). Majority were non-Qataris, 81% (n=1,609) compared with 19% of the Qatari nationality (n=379). Average body mass index (BMI) was 27.8±6.1 (kg/m2) where most of them (41%, n=809) were found to be overweight, between 25-30 kg/m2. Total average step count was 5,469±3,884. Majority were found to be sedentary (n=1110, 55.8%). Middle aged individuals were more active than the other two age groups. Males were seen as more active than females. Those who were less active had a higher BMI. Older individuals were more active. There was a variation in the physical activity level throughout the year period. Conclusion: It is essential to further develop the available intervention programs and increase their physical activity behavior. Planning such physical activity interventions for female population should involve aspects such as time, environmental variables and aerobic steps.

Keywords: adults, pedometer, physical activity, step-count

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Authors: Mohammad Abdul Momin, Sekender Ali, Mahbubul Alam, Rafiquel Islam, Mohammad Mizanul Haque Kazal

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Improved high-yielding modern rice varieties can reduce hunger and food insecurity in Bangladesh. However, lower adoption and higher adoption gap of modern rice varieties are the main concerns of rice researchers, extension specialists, and legislators. This study attempts to determine the adoption status and adoption gap of 10 selected BRRI-released Boro rice varieties to assess some selected socio-economic characteristics of the rice farmers and to explore the contribution of the selected socio-economic characteristics of farmers to their adoption gap of selected BRRI-released Boro varieties. Necessary data were collected from 03 September to 31 December 2021 using a well-structured pre-tested interview schedule from 371 randomly selected farmers covering 12 agricultural blocks of four Upazilas under Cumilla, Mymensingh, Tangail, and Bogura districts. The study revealed that most (73.05%) of the rice farmers had high adoption and low adoption gap; 23.72% had moderate adoption and adoption gap; and the rest 3.23% of respondents’ farmers had low adoption and high adoption gap of BRRI-released Boro rice varieties. Overall adoption and adoption gap of BRRI-released Bororice varieties were 77.02% and 22.98%, respectively. Based on the descending order of the Adoption Index, BRRI dhan29 ranked 1st, followed by BRRI dhan28. The adoption indices of these two top-ranked varieties were 38.84 and 30.43, respectively, which were much higher than others. Third to ninth ranked varieties were BRRI dhan58, BRRI dhan89, BRRI dhan88, BRRI dhan50, BRRI dhan74, BRRI dhan81, and BRRI dhan63. Reverse-ranked orders were observed based on the descending order of the Adoption Gap Index (AGI). Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that ‘knowledge on BRRI-released Boro rice varieties’, ‘extension contacts’, ‘rice farming profitability’, ‘rice farming experience’, and ‘satisfaction on BRRI-releasedBoro rice varieties’ of the farmers had a significant negative contribution to their adoption gap, i.e., positive contribution to their adoption of BRRI-released Boro rice varieties. The study concluded that policy interventions should be taken to improve farmers’ knowledge of BRRI-releasedBoro rice varieties by increasing extension contact to all the lower and higher experienced farmers to make them profitable and satisfied to increase adoption and decrease the adoption gap of BRRI-released Boro rice varieties. These issues also urge policy interventions for the rethinking of current dissemination tactics to ensure the widespread adoption of newly released modern Boro rice varieties at the farm level.

Keywords: adoption, adoption gap, Boro, rice, BRRI, Bangladesh

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Authors: Jiyoung Kim, Chae Weon Chung

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Labor pain is one of the most common concerns of pregnant women, thus women are in need of possible options they could take to control the pain. So, this study aimed to explore maternal perception of epidural anesthesia and to compare the childbirth outcomes according to the use of epidural anesthesia. For this descriptive study, women who were over 36 weeks of pregnancy were recruited from an out-patient obstetric clinic in a public hospital in Seoul. Women were included in the study if agreed to participate, were pregnant singleton, without pregnancy complication, and expecting a natural birth. Data collection was done twice, the first one at the prenatal care visit and the second one at an in-patient ward on 2nd day postpartum. The instrument of the beliefs about epidural anesthesia, one item of asking intention to use epidural anesthesia, demographics, and obstetrical characteristics were incorporated into a questionnaire. One nurse researcher performed data collection with the structured questionnaire after the approval of the institutional review board. At the initial data collection 133 women were included, while 117 were retained at the second point after excluded 13 women due to the occurrence of complications. Analyses were done by chi-square, t-test, and ANOVA using the SPSS program. Women were aged 32.5 years old, 22.2% were over 35 years old. The average gestational age was 38.5 weeks, and 67.5% were nulliparous. Out of 38 multiparous women, 20 women (52.6%) had received epidural anesthesia in the previous delivery. At the initial interview, 62.6% (n=73) of women wanted to receive epidural anesthesia while 22.4% answered not decided and 15.4% did not want to take the procedure. However, there were changes in proportions between women’s intention to take it and actual procedures done, particularly, two-thirds of women (n=26) who had been undecided were found to receive epidural anesthesia during labor. There was a significant difference in the perception of epidural anesthesia measured before delivery between women who received and not received it (t=3.68, p < .001). Delivery outcomes were statistically different between the two groups in delivery mode (chi-square=8.64, p=.01), O₂ supply during labor (chi-square =5.01, p=.03), duration of 2nd stage of labor (t=3.70, p < .001), and arterial cord blood pH (t=2.64, p=.01). Interestingly, there was no difference in labor pain perceived between women with and without epidural anesthesia. Considering the preference and use of epidural anesthesia, health professionals need to assess coping ability of women undergoing delivery and to provide accurate information about pain control to support their decision making and eventually to enhance delivery outcomes for mothers and neonates.

Keywords: epidural anesthesia, delivery outcomes, labor pain, perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Ingrid Ruzbarska, Martin Zvonar, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Daniel Puciato

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Obese children will probably become obese adults, consequently exposed to an increased risk of comorbidity and premature mortality. Body weight may be indirectly determined by continuous development of coordination and motor skills. The level of motor skills and abilities is an important factor that promotes physical activity since early childhood. The aim of the study is to thoroughly understand the internal relations between motor coordination abilities and the somatic development of prepubertal children and to determine the effect of excess body weight on motor coordination by comparing the motor ability levels of children with different body mass index (BMI) values. The data were collected from 436 children aged 7–10 years, without health limitations, fully participating in school physical education classes. Body height was measured with portable stadiometers (Harpenden, Holtain Ltd.), and body mass—with a digital scale (HN-286, Omron). Motor coordination was evaluated with the Kiphard-Schilling body coordination test, Körperkoordinationstest für Kinder. The normality test by Shapiro-Wilk was used to verify the data distribution. The correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant negative association between the dynamic balance and BMI, as well as between the motor quotient and BMI (p<0.01) for both boys and girls. The results showed no effect of gender on the difference in the observed trends. The analysis of variance proved statistically significant differences between normal weight children and their overweight or obese counterparts. Coordination abilities probably play an important role in preventing or moderating the negative trajectory leading to childhood overweight and obesity. At this age, the development of coordination abilities should become a key strategy, targeted at long-term prevention of obesity and the promotion of an active lifestyle in adulthood. Motor performance is essential for implementing a healthy lifestyle in childhood already. Physical inactivity apparently results in motor deficits and a sedentary lifestyle in children, which may be accompanied by excess energy intake and overweight.

Keywords: childhood, KTK test, physical education, psychomotor competence

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Authors: Valdir Moura, Raniele dos Anjos de Souza, Fernando Gomes de Souza, Jose Vagner da Silva, Jerry Adriani Johann

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The estimate of the Area of Land to be planted with annual crops and its stratification by the municipality are important variables in crop forecast. Nowadays in Brazil, these information’s are obtained by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and published under the report Assessment of the Agricultural Production. Due to the high cloud cover in the main crop growing season (October to March) it is difficult to acquire good orbital images. Thus, one alternative is to work with remote sensing data from dates before the crop growing season. This work presents the use of multitemporal Landsat data gathered on July and September (before the summer growing season) in order to estimate the area of land to be planted with summer crops in an area of São Paulo State, Brazil. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital image processing techniques were applied for the treatment of the available data. Supervised and non-supervised classifications were used for data in digital number and reflectance formats and the multitemporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images. The objective was to discriminate the tracts with higher probability to become planted with summer crops. Classification accuracies were evaluated using a sampling system developed basically for this study region. The estimated areas were corrected using the error matrix derived from these evaluations. The classification techniques presented an excellent level according to the kappa index. The proportion of crops stratified by municipalities was derived by a field work during the crop growing season. These proportion coefficients were applied onto the area of land to be planted with summer crops (derived from Landsat data). Thus, it was possible to derive the area of each summer crop by the municipality. The discrepancies between official statistics and our results were attributed to the sampling and the stratification procedures. Nevertheless, this methodology can be improved in order to provide good crop area estimates using remote sensing data, despite the cloud cover during the growing season.

Keywords: area intended for summer culture, estimated area planted, agriculture, Landsat, planting schedule

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Nataliia Dzerovych, Larysa Martynyuk, Tetiana Kovtun

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Obesity and osteoporosis are the two diseases whose increasing prevalence and high impact on the global morbidity and mortality, during the two recent decades, have gained a status of major health threats worldwide. Obesity purports to affect the bone metabolism through complex mechanisms. Debated data on the connection between the bone mineral density and fracture prevalence in the obese patients are widely presented in literature. There is evidence that the correlation of weight and fracture risk is site-specific. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Bone Mineral Density (BMD) and Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) in the obese Ukrainian women. We examined 1025 40-89-year-old women, divided them into the groups according to their body mass index: Group a included 360 women with obesity whose BMI was ≥30 kg/m2, and Group B – 665 women with no obesity and BMI of < 30 kg/m2. The BMD of total body, lumbar spine at the site L1-L4, femur and forearm were measured by DXA (Prodigy, GEHC Lunar, Madison, WI, USA). The TBS of L1-L4 was assessed by means of TBS iNsight® software installed on our DXA machine (product of Med-Imaps, Pessac, France). In general, obese women had a significantly higher BMD of lumbar spine, femoral neck, proximal femur, total body, and ultradistal forearm (p<0.001) in comparison with women without obesity. The TBS of L1-L4 was significantly lower in obese women compared to non-obese women (p<0.001). The BMD of lumbar spine, femoral neck and total body differed to a significant extent in women of 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79 years (p<0.05). At same time, in women aged 80-89 years the BMD of lumbar spine (p=0.09), femoral neck (p=0.22) and total body (p=0.06) barely differed. The BMD of ultradistal forearm was significantly higher in women of all age groups (p<0.05). The TBS of L1-L4 in all the age groups tended to reveal the lower parameters in obese women compared with the non-obese; however, those data were not statistically significant. By contrast, a significant positive correlation was observed between the fat mass and the BMD at different sites. The correlation between the fat mass and TBS of L1-L4 was also significant, although negative. Women with vertebral fractures had a significantly lower body weight, body mass index and total body fat mass in comparison with women without vertebral fractures in their anamnesis. In obese women the frequency of vertebral fractures was 27%, while in women without obesity – 57%.

Keywords: obesity, trabecular bone score, bone mineral density, women

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Authors: Wipakon Sonsnam, Kanya Napapongsa

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The quantitative aim of the study; 1) health conditions, to examine the state of health of the aging, 2) perceived of self-efficacy, self-care of aging ,3) perceived of social support of the aging, 4) to examine factors associated with self-efficacy in enhancing the health and self-care when illness. 100 samples selected from communities in Dusit, Bangkok, 2014 by random sampling. The questionnaires were used to collect data have 5-point rating scale, consisting of strongly agree, agree, undecided, disagree, and strongly disagree; approved content valid by 3 experts, reliability coefficients alpha was .784 for perceived of self-efficacy, self-care of aging and .827 for perceived of social support of the aging. ST-5, 2Q used for collect mental health. The ability to engage in a daily routine was collected by Barthel ADL index. Founding, the sample group were female (68%). (33%) of them were in the age of 60-65. Most of them were married and still live with their spouse (55%) and do not work (38%). The average annual income was less than 10,000 baht supported by child. Most people think that income was adequate (49.0%) and Satisfaction (61.0%). Most of aging caring them-self, followed by them spouse (26%). Welfare of the public had supported, living for the aging (100%), followed by Join and health volunteers in communities (23%). In terms of health, (53%) of the sample group feels health was fair, hypertension was the most common health condition among sample group (68%), following by diabetes (55%). About eyesight, (42%) have visual acuity. (59.0%) do not need hearing aids. 84% have more than 20 teeth remaining, and have no problem with chewing (61%). In terms of Ability to engage in a daily routine, most of people (84%) in sample group are in type 1. (91%) of the participants don’t have bladder incontinence. For mental condition, (82%) do not have insomnia. (87%) do not have anxiety. (96%) do not have depression. However, (77%) of the sample group is facing stress. In terms of environment in home, bathroom in the home (90.0%) and floor of bathroom was slippery (91.0%). (48%) of the sample group has the skills of how to look after themselves while being sick, and how to keep up healthy lifestyle. Besides, some other factors, such as gender, age and educational background are related to the health perception. The statistical significance was <0.05. Suggestion: The instruments available to national standards such as ST-5, 2Q and Barthel ADL index. Reliability coefficients alpha was .784 for perceived of self-efficacy, self-care of aging and .827 for perceived of social support of the aging. The instrument used to collect perceived of social support must be further developed to study level of influence of social support that affect the health of elderly.

Keywords: ้health status, perception of aging, self-efficacy, social support

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Authors: Min-Chih Yang, Shih-Jen Feng, Bo-Tsang Li

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The concept of “Brownfield” has been developed for nearly 35 years since it was put forward in 《Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, CERCLA》of USA in 1980 for solving the problem of soil contamination of those old industrial lands, and later, many countries have put forward relevant policies and researches continuously. But the related concept in Taiwan, a country has developed its industry for 60 years, is still in its infancy. This leads to the slow development of Brownfield related research and policy in Taiwan. When it comes to build the foundation of Brownfield development, we have to depend on the related experience and research of other countries. They are four aspects about Brownfield: 1. Contaminated Land; 2. Derelict Land; 3. Vacant Land; 4. Previously Development Land. This study will focus on and deeply investigate the Vacant land and contaminated land. The subject of this study is Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation, Changhua branch in Taiwan. It has been operating for nearly 50 years and contributing a lot to the local economy. But under the influence of the toxic waste and sewage which was drained regularly or occasionally out from the factory, the environment has been destroyed seriously. There are three factors of pollution: 1. environmental toxicants, carbon disulfide, released from producing processes and volatile gases which is hard to monitor; 2. Waste and exhaust gas leakage caused by outdated equipment; 3. the wastewater discharge has seriously damage the ecological environment of the Dadu river estuary. Because of all these bad influences, the factory has been closed nowadays and moved to other places to spare the opportunities for the contaminated lands to re-develop. So we collect information about related Brownfield management experience and policies in different countries as background information to investigate the current Taiwanese Brownfield redevelopment issues and built the environmental assessment framework for it. We hope that we can set the environmental assessment indexes for Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation, Changhua branch according to the framework. By investigating the theory and environmental pollution factors, we will carry out deep analysis and expert questionnaire to set those indexes and prove a sample in Taiwan for Brownfield redevelopment and remediation in the future.

Keywords: brownfield, industrial land, redevelopment, assessment index

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Meetty Tomy, Arxhana G Thosar

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This paper provides the implementation of optimal control for an armature-controlled DC motor. The selection of error weighted Matrix and control weighted matrix in order to implement optimal control theory for improving the dynamic behavior of DC motor is presented. The closed loop performance of Armature controlled DC motor with derived linear optimal controller is then evaluated for the transient operating condition (starting). The result obtained from MATLAB is compared with that of PID controller and simple closed loop response of the motor.

Keywords: optimal control, DC motor, performance index, MATLAB

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Authors: Om Kalthoum Sallem, Saidakilani, Kamiliya Ounaissa, Abdelmajid Abid

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Introduction and purposes: Olive oil is the main oil used in the Mediterranean diet. Virgin olive oil is valued for its organoleptic and nutritional characteristics and is resistant to oxidation due to its high monounsaturated fatty acid content (MUFAs), and low polyunsaturates (PUFAs) and the presence of natural antioxidants such as phenols, tocopherols and carotenoids. The fatty acid composition, especially the MUFA content, and the natural antioxidants provide advantages for health. The aim of the present study was to examine the impact of method of extraction on the chemical profiles of ‘Chemchali’ olive oil variety, which is cultivated in the city of Gafsa, and to compare it with chetoui and chemchali varieties. Methods: Our study is a qualitative prospective study that deals with ‘Chemchali’ olive oil variety. Analyses were conducted during three months (from December to February) in different oil mills in the city of Gafsa. We have compared ‘Chemchali’ olive oil obtained by continuous method to this obtained by superpress method. Then we have analyzed quality index parameters, including free fatty acid content (FFA), acidity, and UV spectrophotometric characteristics and other physico-chemical data [oxidative stability, ß-carotene, and chlorophyll pigment composition]. Results: Olive oil resulting from super press method compared with continuous method is less acid(0,6120 vs. 0,9760), less oxydazible(K232:2,478 vs. 2,592)(k270:0,216 vs. 0,228), more rich in oleic acid(61,61% vs. 66.99%), less rich in linoleic acid(13,38% vs. 13,98 %), more rich in total chlorophylls pigments (6,22 ppm vs. 3,18 ppm ) and ß-carotene (3,128 mg/kg vs. 1,73 mg/kg). ‘Chemchali’ olive oil showed more equilibrated total content in fatty acids compared with the varieties ’Chemleli’ and ‘Chetoui’. Gafsa’s variety ’Chemlali’ have significantly less saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Whereas it has a higher content in monounsaturated fatty acid C18:2, compared with the two other varieties. Conclusion: The use of super press method had benefic effects on general chemical characteristics of ‘Chemchali’ olive oil, maintaining the highest quality according to the ecocert legal standards. In light of the results obtained in this study, a more detailed study is required to establish whether the differences in the chemical properties of oils are mainly due to agronomic and climate variables or, to the processing employed in oil mills.

Keywords: olive oil, extraction method, fatty acids, chemchali olive oil

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Authors: Christian Ogubuchi Ede, Moses Oghenenyoreme Eyankware

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This study assessed the concentration of heavy metals (HMs) in soil, rock, mine dump pile, and water from Oshiri and Ishiagu areas of Ebonyi State. Investigations on mobile fraction equally evaluated the geochemical condition of different HM using UV spectrophotometer for Mineralized and unmineralized rocks, dumps, and soil, while AAS was used in determining the geochemical nature of the water system. Analysis revealed very high pollution of Cd mostly in Ishiagu (Ihetutu and Amaonye) active mine zones and with subordinates enrichments of Pb, Cu, As, and Zn in Amagu and Umungbala. Oshiri recorded sparingly moderate to high contamination of Cd and Mn but out rightly high anthropogenic input. Observation showed that most of the contamination conditions were unbearable while at the control but decrease with increasing distance from the mine vicinity. The potential heavy metal risk of the environments was evaluated using the risk factors such as enrichment factor, index of Geoacumulation, Contamination Factor, and Effect Range Median. Cadmium and Zn showed moderate to extreme contamination using Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo) while Pb, Cd, and As indicated moderate to strong pollution using the Effect Range Median. Results, when compared with the allowable limits and standards, showed the concentration of the metals in the following order Cd>Zn>Pb>As>Cu>Ni (rocks), Cd>As>Pb>Zn>Cu>Ni (soil) while Cd>Zn>As>Pb> Cu (for mine dump pile. High concentrations of Zn and As were recorded more in mine pond and salt line/drain channels along active mine zones, it heightened its threat during the rainy period as it settles into river course, living behind full-scale contaminations to inhabitants depending on it for domestic uses. Pb and Cu with moderate pollution were recorded in surface/stream water source as its mobility were relatively low. Results from Ishiagu Crush rock sites and Fedeco metallurgical and auto workshop where groundwater contamination was seen infiltrating some of the wells points gave rise to values that were 4 times high than the allowable limits. Some of these metal concentrations according to WHO (2015) if left unmitigated pose adverse effects to the soil and human community.

Keywords: water, geo-accumulation, heavy metals, mine and Nigeria.

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