Search results for: operation estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4675

Search results for: operation estimation

3115 An Investigation of Machinability of Inconel 718 in EDM Using Different Cryogenic Treated Tools

Authors: Pradeep Joshi, Prashant Dhiman, Shiv Dayal Dhakad

Abstract:

Inconel 718 is a family if Nickel-Chromium based Superalloy; it has very high oxidation and corrosion resistance. Inconel 718 is widely being used in aerospace, engine, turbine etc. due to its high mechanical strength and creep resistance. Being widely used, its machining should be easy but in real its machining is very difficult, especially by using traditional machining methods. It becomes easy to machine only by using non Traditional machining such as EDM. During EDM machining there is wear of both tool and workpiece, the tool wear is undesired because it changes tool shape, geometry. To reduce the tool wear rate (TWR) cryogenic treatment is performed on tool before the machining operation. The machining performances of the process are to be evaluated in terms of MRR, TWR which are functions of Discharge current, Pulse on-time, Pulse Off-time.

Keywords: EDM, cyrogenic, TWR, MRR

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3114 Analysis of the Probable Maximum Flood in Hydrologic Design Using Different Functions of Rainfall-Runoff Transformation

Authors: Evangelos Baltas, Elissavet Feloni, Dimitrios Karpouzos

Abstract:

A crucial issue in hydrologic design is the sizing of structures and flood-control works in areas with limited data. This research work highlights the significant variation in probable maximum flood (PMF) for a design hyetograph, using different theoretical functions of rainfall-runoff transformation. The analysis focuses on seven subbasins with different characteristics in the municipality of Florina, northern Greece. This area is a semi-agricultural one which hosts important activities, such as the operation of one of the greatest fields of lignite for power generation in Greece. Results illustrate the notable variation in estimations among the methodologies used for the examined subbasins.

Keywords: rainfall, runoff, hydrologic design, PMF

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
3113 Poisoning Admission in Pediatrics Benghazi Hospital in Libya: Three Years Review of Medical Record

Authors: Mudafara Bengleil

Abstract:

Estimation of the magnitude and causes of poisoning was the objective of the current study. A retrospective study of medical records of all poisoning children admitted to Benghazi Children Hospital in Libya from January 2008 up to December 2010. Number of children admitted was 244; the age ranged from less than one to 13 years old. Most of cases were admitted with mild symptom and the majority of them were boys. Only few cases admitted to intensive care unit and there was no mortality recorded through the period of study. Age group 1 to 3 years (50.8%) had the highest frequency of admission and the peak of admission was during summer. The most common cause of admission was due to ingestion of medication (53.69%), House hold product exposure (26.64%) was the second causes of admission while, 19.67% of admissions were due to Food poisoning. Almost all admitted cases were accidental and medicines were the most consumed substances in addition, improper storage of toxic agents were the first risk factor of poisoning. Present results indicated that, children poisoning seems to be a common pediatric care problem which need to control and prevent.

Keywords: poisoning, children, hospital, medical

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
3112 Mixed Treatment (Physical-Chemical and Biological) of Ouled Fayet Landfill Leachates

Authors: O. Balamane-Zizi, L. M. Rouidi, A. Boukhrissa, N. Daas, H. Ait-amar

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to test the possibility of a mixed treatment (physical-chemical and biological) of Ouled Fayet leachates which date of 10 years and has a large fraction of hard COD that can be reduced by coagulation-flocculation. Previous batch tests showed the possibility of applying the physical-chemical and biological treatments separately; the removal efficiencies obtained in this case were not interesting. We propose, therefore, to test the possibility of a combined treatment, in order to improve the quality of the leachates. Estimation of the treatment’s effectiveness was done by analysis of some pollution parameters such as COD, suspended solids, and heavy metals (particularly iron and nickel). The main results obtained after the combination of treatments, show reduction rate of about 63% for COD, 73% for suspended solids and 80% for iron and nickel. We also noted an improvement in the turbidity of treated leachates.

Keywords: landfill leachates, COD, physical-chemical treatment, biological treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
3111 Measuring Banking Risk

Authors: Mike Tsionas

Abstract:

The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
3110 Localization Mobile Beacon Using RSSI

Authors: Sallama Resen, Celal Öztürk

Abstract:

Distance estimation between tow nodes has wide scope of surveillance and tracking applications. This paper suggests a Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) technology as a media for transceiver and receiver signal in small indoor areas. As an example, BLE communication technologies used in child safety domains. Local network is designed to detect child position in indoor school area consisting Mobile Beacons (MB), Access Points (AP) and Smart Phones (SP) where MBs stuck in children’s shoes as wearable sensors. This paper presents a technique that can detect mobile beacons’ position and help finding children’s location within dynamic environment. By means of bluetooth beacons that are attached to child’s shoes, the distance between the MB and teachers SP is estimated with an accuracy of less than one meter. From the simulation results, it is shown that high accuracy of position coordinates are achieved for multi-mobile beacons in different environments.

Keywords: bluetooth low energy, child safety, mobile beacons, received signal strength

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3109 Robot Movement Using the Trust Region Policy Optimization

Authors: Romisaa Ali

Abstract:

The Policy Gradient approach is one of the deep reinforcement learning families that combines deep neural networks (DNN) with reinforcement learning RL to discover the optimum of the control problem through experience gained from the interaction between the robot and its surroundings. In contrast to earlier policy gradient algorithms, which were unable to handle these two types of error because of over-or under-estimation introduced by the deep neural network model, this article will discuss the state-of-the-art SOTA policy gradient technique, trust region policy optimization (TRPO), by applying this method in various environments compared to another policy gradient method, the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to explain their robust optimization, using this SOTA to gather experience data during various training phases after observing the impact of hyper-parameters on neural network performance.

Keywords: deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning, proximal policy optimization, state-of-the-art, trust region policy optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
3108 Simulink Library for Reference Current Generation in Active DC Traction Substations

Authors: Mihaela Popescu, Alexandru Bitoleanu

Abstract:

This paper is focused on the reference current calculation in the compensation mode of the active DC traction substations. The so-called p-q theory of the instantaneous reactive power is used as theoretical foundation. The compensation goal of total compensation is taken into consideration for the operation under both sinusoidal and nonsinusoidal voltage conditions, through the two objectives of unity power factor and perfect harmonic cancelation. Four blocks of reference current generation implement the conceived algorithms and they are included in a specific Simulink library, which is useful in a DSP dSPACE-based platform working under Matlab/Simulink. The simulation results validate the correctness of the implementation and fulfillment of the compensation tasks.

Keywords: active power filter, DC traction, p-q theory, Simulink library

Procedia PDF Downloads 674
3107 A Microwave and Millimeter-Wave Transmit/Receive Switch Subsystem for Communication Systems

Authors: Donghyun Lee, Cam Nguyen

Abstract:

Multi-band systems offer a great deal of benefit in modern communication and radar systems. In particular, multi-band antenna-array radar systems with their extended frequency diversity provide numerous advantages in detection, identification, locating and tracking a wide range of targets, including enhanced detection coverage, accurate target location, reduced survey time and cost, increased resolution, improved reliability and target information. An accurate calibration is a critical issue in antenna array systems. The amplitude and phase errors in multi-band and multi-polarization antenna array transceivers result in inaccurate target detection, deteriorated resolution and reduced reliability. Furthermore, the digital beam former without the RF domain phase-shifting is less immune to unfiltered interference signals, which can lead to receiver saturation in array systems. Therefore, implementing integrated front-end architecture, which can support calibration function with low insertion and filtering function from the farthest end of an array transceiver is of great interest. We report a dual K/Ka-band T/R/Calibration switch module with quasi-elliptic dual-bandpass filtering function implementing a Q-enhanced metamaterial transmission line. A unique dual-band frequency response is incorporated in the reception and calibration path of the proposed switch module utilizing the composite right/left-handed meta material transmission line coupled with a Colpitts-style negative generation circuit. The fabricated fully integrated T/R/Calibration switch module in 0.18-μm BiCMOS technology exhibits insertion loss of 4.9-12.3 dB and isolation of more than 45 dB in the reception, transmission and calibration mode of operation. In the reception and calibration mode, the dual-band frequency response centered at 24.5 and 35 GHz exhibits out-of-band rejection of more than 30 dB compared to the pass bands below 10.5 GHz and above 59.5 GHz. The rejection between the pass bands reaches more than 50 dB. In all modes of operation, the IP1-dB is between 4 and 11 dBm. Acknowledgement: This paper was made possible by NPRP grant # 6-241-2-102 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors.

Keywords: microwaves, millimeter waves, T/R switch, wireless communications, wireless communications

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
3106 Nonparametric Specification Testing for the Drift of the Short Rate Diffusion Process Using a Panel of Yields

Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu

Abstract:

Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.

Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function

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3105 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic

Authors: Jiri Dufek

Abstract:

The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
3104 The Research of Reliability of MEMS Device under Thermal Shock Test in Space Mission

Authors: Liu Ziyu, Gao Yongfeng, Li Muhua, Zhao Jiahao, Meng Song

Abstract:

The effect of thermal shock on the operation of micro electromechanical systems (MEMS) were examined. All MEMS device were tested before and after three different conditions of thermal shock (from -55℃ to 85℃, from -65℃ to 125℃, from -65℃ to 200℃). The micro lens showed no changes after thermal shock, which shows that the design of the micro lens can be well adapted to the application environment in the space. The design of the micro mirror can be well adapted to the space application environment. The micro-magnetometer, RF MEMS switch and the micro accelerometer exhibited degradation and parameter drift after thermal shock, potential mechanical was proposed.

Keywords: MEMS, thermal shock test, reliability, space environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 590
3103 Estimation of PM2.5 Emissions and Source Apportionment Using Receptor and Dispersion Models

Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

Abstract:

Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM₂.₅, fugitive, emission inventory

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3102 Preoperative Smoking Cessation Audit: A Single Centre Experience from Metropolitan Melbourne

Authors: Ya-Chu May Tsai, Ibrahim Yacoub, Eoin Casey

Abstract:

The Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists (ANZCA) advises that smoking should not be permitted within 12 hours of surgery. There is little information in the medical literature regarding patients awareness of perioperative smoking cessation recommendations nor their appreciation of how smoking might negatively impact their perioperative course. The aim of the study is to assess the prevalence of current smokers presenting to Werribee Mercy Hospital (WMH) and to evaluate if pre-operative provision of both written and verbal pre-operative advice was, 1: Effective in improving patient awareness of the benefits of pre-operative smoking cessation, 2: Associated with an increase in the number of elective surgical patients who stop smoking at least 12 hours pre-operatively. Methods: The initial survey included all patients who presented to WMH for elective surgical procedures from 19 – 30 September 2016 using a standardized questionnaire focused on patients’ smoking history and their awareness of smoking cessation preoperatively. The intervention consisted of a standard pre-operative phone call to all patients advising them of the increased perioperative risks associated with smoking, and advised patients to cease 12 hours prior. In addition, written information on smoking cessation strategies were sent out in mail at least 1 week prior to planned procedure date to all patients. Questionnaire-based study after the intervention was conducted on day of elective procedure from 10 – 21 October 2016 inclusive. Primary outcomes measured were patient’s awareness of smoking cessation and proportion of smokers who quit >12 hours, considered a clinically meaning duration to reduce anaesthetics complications. Comparison of pre and post intervention results were made using SPSS 21.0. Results: In the pre-intervention group (n=156), 36 (22.4%) patients were current smokers, 46 were ex-smokers (29.5%) and 74 were non-smokers (48.1%). Of the smokers, 12 (33%) reported having been informed of smoking cessation prior to operation and 8 (22%) were aware of increased intra- and perioperative adverse events associated with smoking. In the post-intervention group n= 177, 38 (21.5%) patients were current smokers, 39 were ex-smokers (22.0%) and 100 were non-smokers (56.5%). Of the smokers, 32 (88.9%) reported having been informed of smoking cessation prior to operation and 35 (97.2%) reported being aware of increased intra- and perioperative adverse events associated with smoking. The median time since last smoke in the pre-intervention group was 5.5 hours (Q1-Q3 = 2-14) compared with 13 hours (Q1-Q3 = 5-24) in post intervention group. Amongst the smokers, smoking cessation at least 12 hours prior to surgery significantly increased from 27.8% pre-intervention to 52.6% post intervention (P=0.03). Conclusion: A standard preoperative phone call and written instruction on smoking cessation guidelines at time of waitlist placement increase preoperative smoking cessation rates by almost 2-fold.

Keywords: anaesthesia, audit, perioperative medicine, smoking cessation

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3101 Short and Long Crack Growth Behavior in Ferrite Bainite Dual Phase Steels

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Shiv Brat Singh, Kalyan Kumar Ray

Abstract:

There is growing awareness to design steels against fatigue damage Ferrite martensite dual-phase steels are known to exhibit favourable mechanical properties like good strength, ductility, toughness, continuous yielding, and high work hardening rate. However, dual-phase steels containing bainite as second phase are potential alternatives for ferrite martensite steels for certain applications where good fatigue property is required. Fatigue properties of dual phase steels are popularly assessed by the nature of variation of crack growth rate (da/dN) with stress intensity factor range (∆K), and the magnitude of fatigue threshold (∆Kth) for long cracks. There exists an increased emphasis to understand not only the long crack fatigue behavior but also short crack growth behavior of ferrite bainite dual phase steels. The major objective of this report is to examine the influence of microstructures on the short and long crack growth behavior of a series of developed dual-phase steels with varying amounts of bainite and. Three low carbon steels containing Nb, Cr and Mo as microalloying elements steels were selected for making ferrite-bainite dual-phase microstructures by suitable heat treatments. The heat treatment consisted of austenitizing the steel at 1100°C for 20 min, cooling at different rates in air prior to soaking these in a salt bath at 500°C for one hour, and finally quenching in water. Tensile tests were carried out on 25 mm gauge length specimens with 5 mm diameter using nominal strain rate 0.6x10⁻³ s⁻¹ at room temperature. Fatigue crack growth studies were made on a recently developed specimen configuration using a rotating bending machine. The crack growth was monitored by interrupting the test and observing the specimens under an optical microscope connected to an Image analyzer. The estimated crack lengths (a) at varying number of cycles (N) in different fatigue experiments were analyzed to obtain log da/dN vs. log °∆K curves for determining ∆Kthsc. The microstructural features of these steels have been characterized and their influence on the near threshold crack growth has been examined. This investigation, in brief, involves (i) the estimation of ∆Kthsc and (ii) the examination of the influence of microstructure on short and long crack fatigue threshold. The maximum fatigue threshold values obtained from short crack growth experiments on various specimens of dual-phase steels containing different amounts of bainite are found to increase with increasing bainite content in all the investigated steels. The variations of fatigue behavior of the selected steel samples have been explained with the consideration of varying amounts of the constituent phases and their interactions with the generated microstructures during cyclic loading. Quantitative estimation of the different types of fatigue crack paths indicates that the propensity of a crack to pass through the interfaces depends on the relative amount of the microstructural constituents. The fatigue crack path is found to be predominantly intra-granular except for the ones containing > 70% bainite in which it is predominantly inter-granular.

Keywords: bainite, dual phase steel, fatigue crack growth rate, long crack fatigue threshold, short crack fatigue threshold

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3100 Adoption of Lean Thinking and Service Improvement for Care Home Service

Authors: Chuang-Chun Chiou

Abstract:

Ageing population is a global trend; therefore the need of care service has been increasing dramatically. There are three basic forms of service delivered to the elderly: institution, community, and home. Particularly, the institutional service can be seen as an extension of medical service. The nursing home or so-called care home which is equipped with professional staff and facilities can provide a variety of service including rehabilitation service, short-term care, and long term care. Similar to hospital and other health care service, care home service do need to provide quality and cost-effective service to satisfy the dwellers. The main purpose of this paper is to show how lean thinking and service innovation can be applied to care home operation. The issues and key factors of implementing lean practice are discussed.

Keywords: lean, service improvement, SERVQUAL, care home service

Procedia PDF Downloads 606
3099 Identification of the Relationship Between Signals in Continuous Monitoring of Production Systems

Authors: Maciej Zaręba, Sławomir Lasota

Abstract:

Understanding the dependencies between the input signal, that controls the production system and signals, that capture its output, is of a great importance in intelligent systems. The method for identification of the relationship between signals in continuous monitoring of production systems is described in the paper. The method discovers the correlation between changes in the states derived from input signals and resulting changes in the states of output signals of the production system. The method is able to handle system inertia, which determines the time shift of the relationship between the input and output.

Keywords: manufacturing operation management, signal relationship, continuous monitoring, production systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
3098 CFD Effect of the Tidal Grating in Opposite Directions

Authors: N. M. Thao, I. Dolguntseva, M. Leijon

Abstract:

Flow blockages referring to the increase in flow are considered as a vital equipment for marine current energy conversion. However, the shape of these devices will result in extracted energy under the operation. The present work investigates the effect of two configurations of a grating, convergent and divergent that located upstream, to the water flow velocity. Computational Fluid Dynamic simulation studies the flow characteristics by using the ANSYS Fluent solver for these specified arrangements of the grating. The results indicate that distinct features of flow velocity between “convergent” and “divergent” grating placements are up to in confined conditions. Furthermore, the velocity in case of granting is higher than that of the divergent grating.

Keywords: marine current energy, converter, turbine granting, RANS simulation, water flow velocity

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3097 Estimating Tree Height and Forest Classification from Multi Temporal Risat-1 HH and HV Polarized Satellite Aperture Radar Interferometric Phase Data

Authors: Saurav Kumar Suman, P. Karthigayani

Abstract:

In this paper the height of the tree is estimated and forest types is classified from the multi temporal RISAT-1 Horizontal-Horizontal (HH) and Horizontal-Vertical (HV) Polarised Satellite Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The novelty of the proposed project is combined use of the Back-scattering Coefficients (Sigma Naught) and the Coherence. It uses Water Cloud Model (WCM). The approaches use two main steps. (a) Extraction of the different forest parameter data from the Product.xml, BAND-META file and from Grid-xxx.txt file come with the HH & HV polarized data from the ISRO (Indian Space Research Centre). These file contains the required parameter during height estimation. (b) Calculation of the Vegetation and Ground Backscattering, Coherence and other Forest Parameters. (c) Classification of Forest Types using the ENVI 5.0 Tool and ROI (Region of Interest) calculation.

Keywords: RISAT-1, classification, forest, SAR data

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
3096 Axle Load Estimation of Moving Vehicles Using BWIM Technique

Authors: Changgil Lee, Seunghee Park

Abstract:

Although vehicle driving test for the development of BWIM system is necessary, but it needs much cost and time in addition application of various driving condition. Thus, we need the numerical-simulation method resolving the cost and time problems of vehicle driving test and the way of measuring response of bridge according to the various driving condition. Using the precision analysis model reflecting the dynamic characteristic is contributed to increase accuracy in numerical simulation. In this paper, we conduct a numerical simulation to apply precision analysis model, which reflects the dynamic characteristic of bridge using Bridge Weigh-in-Motion technique and suggest overload vehicle enforcement technology using precision analysis model.

Keywords: bridge weigh-in-motion(BWIM) system, precision analysis model, dynamic characteristic of bridge, numerical simulation

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3095 Optical Flow Localisation and Appearance Mapping (OFLAAM) for Long-Term Navigation

Authors: Daniel Pastor, Hyo-Sang Shin

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel method to use optical flow navigation for long-term navigation. Unlike standard SLAM approaches for augmented reality, OFLAAM is designed for Micro Air Vehicles (MAV). It uses an optical flow camera pointing downwards, an IMU and a monocular camera pointing frontwards. That configuration avoids the expensive mapping and tracking of the 3D features. It only maps these features in a vocabulary list by a localization module to tackle the loss of the navigation estimation. That module, based on the well-established algorithm DBoW2, will be also used to close the loop and allow long-term navigation in confined areas. That combination of high-speed optical flow navigation with a low rate localization algorithm allows fully autonomous navigation for MAV, at the same time it reduces the overall computational load. This framework is implemented in ROS (Robot Operating System) and tested attached to a laptop. A representative scenarios is used to analyse the performance of the system.

Keywords: vision, UAV, navigation, SLAM

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3094 Design to Cryogenic System for Dilution Refrigerator with Cavity and Superconducting Magnet

Authors: Ki Woong Lee

Abstract:

The Center for Axion and Precision Physics Research is studying the search for dark matter using 12 tesla superconducting magnets. A dilution refrigerator is being used for search experiments, and superconducting magnets, superconducting cavities. The dilution refrigerator requires a stable cryogenic environment using liquid helium. Accordingly, a cryogenic system for a stable supply of liquid helium is to be established. This cryogenic system includes the liquefying, supply, storage, and purification of liquid helium. This article presents the basic design, construction, and operation plans for building cryogenic systems.

Keywords: cryogenic system, dilution refrigerator, superconducting magnet, helium recovery system

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
3093 The Competitive Newsvendor Game with Overestimated Demand

Authors: Chengli Liu, C. K. M. Lee

Abstract:

The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.

Keywords: bias, competing newsvendor, Nash equilibrium, overestimation

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3092 A Research on Tourism Market Forecast and Its Evaluation

Authors: Min Wei

Abstract:

The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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3091 Diffusion Adaptation Strategies for Distributed Estimation Based on the Family of Affine Projection Algorithms

Authors: Mohammad Shams Esfand Abadi, Mohammad Ranjbar, Reza Ebrahimpour

Abstract:

This work presents the distributed processing solution problem in a diffusion network based on the adapt then combine (ATC) and combine then adapt (CTA)selective partial update normalized least mean squares (SPU-NLMS) algorithms. Also, we extend this approach to dynamic selection affine projection algorithm (DS-APA) and ATC-DS-APA and CTA-DS-APA are established. The purpose of ATC-SPU-NLMS and CTA-SPU-NLMS algorithm is to reduce the computational complexity by updating the selected blocks of weight coefficients at every iteration. In CTA-DS-APA and ATC-DS-APA, the number of the input vectors is selected dynamically. Diffusion cooperation strategies have been shown to provide good performance based on these algorithms. The good performance of introduced algorithm is illustrated with various experimental results.

Keywords: selective partial update, affine projection, dynamic selection, diffusion, adaptive distributed networks

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3090 Looking for a Connection between Oceanic Regions with Trends in Evaporation with Continental Ones with Trends in Precipitation through a Lagrangian Approach

Authors: Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, Anita Drumond, Luis Gimeno

Abstract:

One of the hot spots of climate change is the increment of ocean evaporation. The best estimation of evaporation, OAFlux data, shows strong increasing trends in evaporation from the oceans since 1978, with peaks during the hemispheric winter and strongest along the paths of the global western boundary currents and any inner Seas. The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents is the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. A key question is to try to relate evaporative source regions over the oceans where trends have occurred in the last decades with their sinks over the continents to check if there have been also any trends in the precipitation amount or its characteristics. A Lagrangian approach based on FLEXPART and ERA-interim data is used to establish this connection. The analyzed period was 1980 to 2012. Results show that there is not a general pattern, but a significant agreement was found in important areas of climate interest.

Keywords: ocean evaporation, Lagrangian approaches, contiental precipitation, Europe

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
3089 High Speed Image Rotation Algorithm

Authors: Hee-Choul Kwon, Hyungjin Cho, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Image rotation is one of main pre-processing step in image processing or image pattern recognition. It is implemented with rotation matrix multiplication. However it requires lots of floating point arithmetic operations and trigonometric function calculations, so it takes long execution time. We propose a new high speed image rotation algorithm without two major time-consuming operations. We compare the proposed algorithm with the conventional rotation one with various size images. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is superior to the conventional rotation ones.

Keywords: high speed rotation operation, image processing, image rotation, pattern recognition, transformation matrix

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3088 The Impact of a Leadership Change on Individuals' Behaviour and Incentives: Evidence from the Top Tier Italian Football League

Authors: Kaori Narita, Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo, Claudio Detotto

Abstract:

Decisions on replacement of leaders are of significance and high prevalence in any organization, and concerns many of its stakeholders, whether it is a leader in a political party or a CEO of a firm, as indicated by high media coverage of such events. This merits an investigation into the consequences and implications of a leadership change on the performances and behavior of organizations and their workers. Sport economics provides a fruitful field to explore these issues due to the high frequencies of managerial changes in professional sports clubs and the transparency and regularity of observations of team performance and players’ abilities. Much of the existing research on managerial change focuses on how this affects the performance of an organization. However, there is scarcely attention paid to the consequences of such events on the behavior of individuals within the organization. Changes in behavior and attitudes of a group of workers due to a managerial change could be of great interest in management science, psychology, and operational research. On the other hand, these changes cannot be observed in the final outcome of the organization, as this is affected by many other unobserved shocks, for example, the stress level of workers with the need to deal with a difficult situation. To fill this gap, this study shows the first attempt to evaluate the impact of managerial change on players’ behaviors such as attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts. The data used in this study is from the top tier Italian football league (“Serie A”), where an average of 13 within season replacements of head coaches were observed over the period of seasons from 2000/2001 to 2017/18. The preliminary estimation employs Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) and club-season Fixed Effect (FE) in order to assess the marginal effect of having a new manager on the number of shots, corners and red/yellow cards after controlling for a home-field advantage, ex ante abilities and current positions in the league of a team and their opponent. The results from this preliminary estimation suggest that the teams do not show a significant difference in their behaviors before and after the managerial change. To build on these preliminary results, other methods, including propensity score matching and non-linear model estimates, will be used. Moreover, the study will further investigate these issues by considering other measurements of attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts, such as possessions, a number of fouls and the athletic performance of players, respectively. Finally, the study is going to investigate whether these results vary over the characteristics of a new head coach, for example, their age and experience as a manager and a player. Thus far, this study suggests that certain behaviours of individuals in an organisation are not immediately affected by a change in leadership. To confirm this preliminary finding and lead to a more solid conclusion, further investigation will be conducted in the aforementioned manner, and the results will be elaborated in the conference.

Keywords: behaviour, effort, manager characteristics, managerial change, sport economics

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3087 Estimation of the Acute Toxicity of Halogenated Phenols Using Quantum Chemistry Descriptors

Authors: Khadidja Bellifa, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

Abstract:

Phenols and especially halogenated phenols represent a substantial part of the chemicals produced worldwide and are known as aquatic pollutants. Quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) models are useful for understanding how chemical structure relates to the toxicity of chemicals. In the present study, the acute toxicities of 45 halogenated phenols to Tetrahymena Pyriformis are estimated using no cost semi-empirical quantum chemistry methods. QSTR models were established using the multiple linear regression technique and the predictive ability of the models was evaluated by the internal cross-validation, the Y-randomization and the external validation. Their structural chemical domain has been defined by the leverage approach. The results show that the best model is obtained with the AM1 method (R²= 0.91, R²CV= 0.90, SD= 0.20 for the training set and R²= 0.96, SD= 0.11 for the test set). Moreover, all the Tropsha’ criteria for a predictive QSTR model are verified.

Keywords: halogenated phenols, toxicity mechanism, hydrophobicity, electrophilicity index, quantitative stucture-toxicity relationships

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3086 Effect of O2 Pressure of Fe-Doped TiO2 Nanostructure on Morphology Properties for Gas Sensing

Authors: Samar Y. Al-Dabagh, Adawiya J. Haider, Mirvat D. Majed

Abstract:

Pure nanostructure TiO2 and thin films doped with transition metal Fe were prepared by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) on Si (111) substrate. The thin films structures were determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD). The morphology properties were determined from atomic force microscopy (AFM), which shows that the roughness increases when TiO2 is doped with Fe. Results show TiO2 doped with Fe metal thin films deposited on Si (111) substrate has maximum sensitivity to ethanol vapor at 10 mbar oxygen pressure than at 0.01 and 0.1 mbar with optimum operation temperature of 250°C.

Keywords: pulsed laser deposition (PLD), TiO2 doped thin films, nanostructure, gas sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 382