Search results for: estimation of electricity

Authors: Iyasu Eibedingil

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The construction industry is one of the major factors responsible for causing a negative impact on the environment. It has the largest share in the use of natural resources including land use, material extraction, and greenhouse gases emissions. For this reason, it is imperative to reduce its environmental impact through the construction of sustainable buildings with less impact. These days, it is possible to measure the environmental impact by using different tools such as the life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. Given this premise, this study explored the environmental impact of two types of roofing systems through comparative life cycle assessment approach. The tiles were analyzed to select the most environmentally friendly roofing system for the villa at Khalifa City A, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. These products are available in various forms; however, in this study concrete roof tiles and clay roof tiles were considered. The results showed that concrete roof tiles have lower environmental impact. In all scenarios considered, manufacturing the roof tiles locally, using recovered fuels for firing clay tiles, and using renewable energy (electricity from PV plant) showed that the concrete roof tiles were found to be excellent in terms of its embodied carbon, embodied the energy and various other environmental performance indicators.

Keywords: clay roof tile, concrete roof tile, life cycle assessment, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: R. Gupta, P. Jain, S. Das

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One way to approach construction scheduling optimization problem is to focus on the individual aspects of planning, which can be broadly classified as time scheduling, crew and resource management, and cost control. During the last four decades, construction planning has seen a lot of research, but to date, no paper had attempted to summarize the literature available under important heads. This paper addresses each of aspects separately, and presents the findings of an in-depth literature of the various planning techniques. For techniques dealing with time scheduling, the authors have adopted a rough chronological documentation. For crew and resource management, classification has been done on the basis of the different steps involved in the resource planning process. For cost control, techniques dealing with both estimation of costs and the subsequent optimization of costs have been dealt with separately.

Keywords: construction planning techniques, time scheduling, resource planning, cost control

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Authors: Rahma Fitriani, Zerlita Fahdha Pusdiktasari, Herman Cahyo Diartho

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Spatial panel model is commonly used to specify more complicated behavior of economic agent distributed in space at an individual-spatial unit level. There are several spatial panel models which can be adapted based on certain assumptions. A package called splm in R has several functions, ranging from the estimation procedure, specification tests, and model selection tests. In the absence of prior assumptions, a comprehensive procedure which utilizes the available functions in splm must be formed, which is the objective of this study. In this way, the best specification and model can be fitted based on data. The implementation of the procedure works well. It specifies SARAR-FE as the best model for agricultural productivity growth of the 38 East Java’s Regencies/Municipalities.

Keywords: spatial panel, specification, splm, agricultural productivity growth

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Authors: Musa Mayanja Lwanga, Annet Adong

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This study provides a micro perspective on the impact of mobile money services on individual’s saving behavior using the 2013 Uganda FinScope data. Results show that although saving through the mobile phone is not a common practice in Uganda, being a registered mobile money user increases the likelihood to save with mobile money. Saving using mobile is more prevalent in urban areas and in Kampala and Central region compared to other regions. This can be explained by: first, rural dwellers tend on average to have lower incomes and thus have lower to saving compared to the urban counterpart. Similarly, residents of Kampala tend to have higher incomes and thus high savings compared to residents of other regions. Secondly, poor infrastructure in rural areas in terms of lack of electricity and poor telecommunication network coverage may limit the use of mobile phones and consequently the use of mobile money as a saving mechanism. Overall, the use of mobile money as a saving mechanism is still very low and this could be partly explained by limitations in the legislation that does not incorporate mobile finance services into mobile money. The absence of interest payments on mobile money savings may act as a disincentive to save through this mechanism. Given the emerging mobile banking services, there is a need to create more awareness and the need for enhanced synergies between telecom companies and commercial banks.

Keywords: financial inclusion, mobile money, savings, Uganda

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Authors: Arifin Matoka, Nadjamuddin Harun, Salama Manjang, M. Arsyad Thaha

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Along irrigation canals in certain areas falling water level height is have potential for micro hydro power plant (MHP), which generally MHP potential valley away from society consumer of electricity and needed a long conductor cable, so that with the MHP Irrigation is ideal are typical with an Open Flume type turbines. This study is divided into two phases research phase of the potential power that exist in irrigation channels at the Gorontalo Province and stages solution sedimentation effects. The total power generated in the irrigation channel of the results of this study at 781.83 Kw, it is quite significant for the 1737 rural households on average consumes 450 watt per household. In the field of observation, sedimentation lifting effect on the quality of electric power, at which time the turbid sediment concentrations occur significant voltage fluctuations causing damage to some household electrical appliances such as electronic equipment and lighting. This problem is solution by modeling the sedimentation tub (setling basin) to reduce sedimentation thus olso can reduce the regulation load control equipment which can minimize the cost of investment and maintenance.

Keywords: irrigation canals, microhydro powerplant, sedimentation, Gorontalo Province

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Authors: Vera Jancurova

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People are, in general, exposed to behavioral biases, however, the degree and impact are affected by experience, knowledge, and other characteristics. The purpose of this article is to study two of defined behavioral biases, the overconfidence and self-attribution bias, and its impact on economic and non-economic students at different stage of the study. The research method used for the purpose of this study is a controlled field study that contains questions on perception of own confidence and self-attribution and estimation of limits to analyse actual abilities. The results of the research show that economic students seem to be more overconfident than their non–economic colleagues, which seems to be caused by the fact the questionnaire was asking for predicting economic indexes and own knowledge and abilities in financial environment. Surprisingly, the most overconfidence was detected by the students at the beginning of their study (1st-semester students). However, the estimations of real numbers do not point out, that economic students have better results by the prediction itself. The study confirmed the presence of self-attribution bias at all of the respondents.

Keywords: behavioral finance, overconfidence, self-attribution, heuristics and biases

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Authors: A. O. Idris, J. Virgone, A. I. Ibrahim, D. David, E. Vergnault

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In hot countries, the major challenge is the air conditioning. The increase in energy consumption by air conditioning stems from the need to live in more comfortable buildings, which is understandable. But in Djibouti, one of the countries with the most expensive electricity in the world, this need is exacerbated by an architecture that is inappropriate and unsuitable for climatic conditions. This paper discusses the design of the roof which is the surface receiving the most solar radiation. The roof determines the general behavior of the building. The study presents Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling and analysis of the energy performance of a double skin ventilated roof. The particularity of this study is that it considers the climate of Djibouti characterized by hot and humid conditions in winter and very hot and humid in summer. Roof simulations are carried out using the Ansys Fluent software to characterize the flow and the heat transfer induced in the ventilated roof in steady state. This modeling is carried out by comparing the influence of several parameters such as the internal emissivity of the upper surface, the thickness of the insulation of the roof and the thickness of the ventilated channel on heat gain through the roof. The energy saving potential compared to the current construction in Djibouti is also presented.

Keywords: building, double skin roof, CFD, thermo-fluid analysis, energy saving, forced convection, natural convection

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Authors: Marian Dragomir, Alin Dragomir

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In the paper, two fault location algorithms are presented for transmission lines which use the line parameters to estimate the distance to the fault. The first algorithm uses only the measurements from one end of the line and the positive and zero sequence parameters of the line, while the second one uses the measurements from both ends of the line and only the positive sequence parameters of the line. The algorithms were tested using a transmission grid transposed in MATLAB. In a first stage it was established a fault location base line, where the algorithms mentioned above estimate the fault locations using the exact line parameters. After that, the positive and zero sequence resistance and reactance of the line were calculated again for different ground resistivity values and then the fault locations were estimated again in order to compare the results with the base line results. The results show that the algorithm which uses the zero sequence impedance of the line is the most sensitive to the line parameters modifications. The other algorithm is less sensitive to the line parameters modification.

Keywords: estimation algorithms, fault location, line parameters, simulation tool

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Authors: Hichem Kmimech, Achref Jabeur Telmoudi, Lotfi Nabli

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The estimation of the initial marking minimum (MIM) is a crucial problem in labeled Petri nets. In the case of multiple choices, the search for the initial marking leads to a problem of optimization of the minimum allocation of resources with two constraints. The first concerns the firing sequence that could be legal on the initial marking with respect to the firing vector. The second deals with the total number of tokens that can be minimal. In this article, the MIM problem is solved by the meta-heuristic particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed approach presents the advantages of PSO to satisfy the two previous constraints and find all possible combinations of minimum initial marking with the best computing time. This method, more efficient than conventional ones, has an excellent impact on the resolution of the MIM problem. We prove through a set of definitions, lemmas, and examples, the effectiveness of our approach.

Keywords: marking, production system, labeled Petri nets, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: E. Krishna

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An Extended form of exponential distribution using Marshall and Olkin method is introduced.The location scale family of these distributions is considered. For location scale free family, exact expressions for single and product moments of upper record statistics are derived. The mean, variance and covariance of record values are computed for various values of the shape parameter. Using these the BLUE's of location and scale parameters are derived.The variances and covariance of estimates are obtained.Through Monte Carlo simulation the condence intervals for location and scale parameters are constructed.The Best liner unbiased Predictor (BLUP) of future records are also discussed.

Keywords: BLUE, BLUP, condence interval, Marshall-Olkin distribution, Monte Carlo simulation, prediction of future records, record statistics

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Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

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Authors: Saleh Alshehri

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Thermoelectric technology is currently being used in many industrial applications for cooling, heating and generating electricity. This research mainly focuses on using thermoelectric to cool down high-speed computer chips at different operating conditions. A previously developed and validated three-dimensional model for optimizing and assessing the performance of cascaded thermoelectric and non-cascaded thermoelectric is used in this study to investigate the possibility of decreasing the hotspot temperature of computer chip. Additionally, a test assembly is built and tested at steady-state and transient conditions. The obtained optimum thermoelectric current at steady-state condition is used to conduct a number of pulsed tests (i.e. transient tests) with different shapes to cool the computer chips hotspots. The results of the steady-state tests showed that at hotspot heat rate of 15.58 W (5.97 W/cm²), using thermoelectric current of 4.5 A has resulted in decreasing the hotspot temperature at open circuit condition (89.3 °C) by 50.1 °C. Maximum and minimum hotspot temperatures have been affected by ON and OFF duration of the electrical current pulse. Maximum hotspot temperature was resulted by longer OFF pulse period. In addition, longer ON pulse period has generated the minimum hotspot temperature.

Keywords: thermoelectric generator, TEG, thermoelectric cooler, TEC, chip hotspots, electronic cooling

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Authors: Touati Mawloud

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Between electronics and electrical systems has developed a new technology that is power electronics, also called electronic of strong currents, this application covers a very wide range of use particularly in the industrial sector, where direct current engines are frequently used, they control their speed by the use of the converters (DC-DC), which aims to deal with various mechanical disturbances (fillers) or electrical (power). In future, it will play a critical role in transforming the current electric grid into the next generation grid. Existing silicon-based PE devices enable electric grid functionalities such as fault-current limiting and converter devices. Systems of future are envisioned to be highly automated, interactive "smart" grid that can self-adjust to meet the demand for electricity reliability, securely, and economically. Transforming today’s electric grid to the grid of the future will require creating or advancing a number of technologies, tools, and techniques—specifically, the capabilities of power electronics (PE). PE devices provide an interface between electrical system, and electronics system by converting AC to direct current (DC) and vice versa. Solid-state wide Bandgap (WBG), semiconductor electronics (such as silicon carbide [SiC], gallium nitride [GaN], and diamond) are envisioned to improve the reliability and efficiency of the next-generation grid substantially.

Keywords: Power Electronics (PE), electrical system generation electric grid, switching frequencies, converter devices

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Authors: Mohamed I. Mahrous, Mohamed G. Ashmawy

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Hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) is proposed in this paper to determine the economic scheduling of electric power generation over a fixed time period under various system and operational constraints. The proposed technique can outperform conventional genetic algorithms (CGAs) in the sense that HGA make it possible to improve both the quality of the solution and reduce the computing expenses. In contrast, any carefully designed GA is only able to balance the exploration and the exploitation of the search effort, which means that an increase in the accuracy of a solution can only occure at the sacrifice of convergent speed, and vice visa. It is unlikely that both of them can be improved simultaneously. The proposed hybrid scheme is developed in such a way that a simple GA is acting as a base level search, which makes a quick decision to direct the search towards the optimal region, and a local search method (pattern search technique) is next employed to do the fine tuning. The aim of the strategy is to achieve the cost reduction within a reasonable computing time. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid technique is verified on two real public electricity supply systems with 13 and 40 generator units respectively. The simulation results obtained with the HGA for the two real systems are very encouraging with regard to the computational expenses and the cost reduction of power generation.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, economic dispatch, pattern search

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Authors: Mudafara Bengleil

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Estimation of the magnitude and causes of poisoning was the objective of the current study. A retrospective study of medical records of all poisoning children admitted to Benghazi Children Hospital in Libya from January 2008 up to December 2010. Number of children admitted was 244; the age ranged from less than one to 13 years old. Most of cases were admitted with mild symptom and the majority of them were boys. Only few cases admitted to intensive care unit and there was no mortality recorded through the period of study. Age group 1 to 3 years (50.8%) had the highest frequency of admission and the peak of admission was during summer. The most common cause of admission was due to ingestion of medication (53.69%), House hold product exposure (26.64%) was the second causes of admission while, 19.67% of admissions were due to Food poisoning. Almost all admitted cases were accidental and medicines were the most consumed substances in addition, improper storage of toxic agents were the first risk factor of poisoning. Present results indicated that, children poisoning seems to be a common pediatric care problem which need to control and prevent.

Keywords: poisoning, children, hospital, medical

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Authors: O. Balamane-Zizi, L. M. Rouidi, A. Boukhrissa, N. Daas, H. Ait-amar

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The objective of this study was to test the possibility of a mixed treatment (physical-chemical and biological) of Ouled Fayet leachates which date of 10 years and has a large fraction of hard COD that can be reduced by coagulation-flocculation. Previous batch tests showed the possibility of applying the physical-chemical and biological treatments separately; the removal efficiencies obtained in this case were not interesting. We propose, therefore, to test the possibility of a combined treatment, in order to improve the quality of the leachates. Estimation of the treatment’s effectiveness was done by analysis of some pollution parameters such as COD, suspended solids, and heavy metals (particularly iron and nickel). The main results obtained after the combination of treatments, show reduction rate of about 63% for COD, 73% for suspended solids and 80% for iron and nickel. We also noted an improvement in the turbidity of treated leachates.

Keywords: landfill leachates, COD, physical-chemical treatment, biological treatment

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

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The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Sallama Resen, Celal Öztürk

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Distance estimation between tow nodes has wide scope of surveillance and tracking applications. This paper suggests a Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) technology as a media for transceiver and receiver signal in small indoor areas. As an example, BLE communication technologies used in child safety domains. Local network is designed to detect child position in indoor school area consisting Mobile Beacons (MB), Access Points (AP) and Smart Phones (SP) where MBs stuck in children’s shoes as wearable sensors. This paper presents a technique that can detect mobile beacons’ position and help finding children’s location within dynamic environment. By means of bluetooth beacons that are attached to child’s shoes, the distance between the MB and teachers SP is estimated with an accuracy of less than one meter. From the simulation results, it is shown that high accuracy of position coordinates are achieved for multi-mobile beacons in different environments.

Keywords: bluetooth low energy, child safety, mobile beacons, received signal strength

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Authors: Romisaa Ali

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The Policy Gradient approach is one of the deep reinforcement learning families that combines deep neural networks (DNN) with reinforcement learning RL to discover the optimum of the control problem through experience gained from the interaction between the robot and its surroundings. In contrast to earlier policy gradient algorithms, which were unable to handle these two types of error because of over-or under-estimation introduced by the deep neural network model, this article will discuss the state-of-the-art SOTA policy gradient technique, trust region policy optimization (TRPO), by applying this method in various environments compared to another policy gradient method, the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to explain their robust optimization, using this SOTA to gather experience data during various training phases after observing the impact of hyper-parameters on neural network performance.

Keywords: deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning, proximal policy optimization, state-of-the-art, trust region policy optimization

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Authors: John Knight, Fuchun Li, Yan Xu

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Based on a new method of the nonparametric estimator of the drift function, we propose a consistent test for the parametric specification of the drift function in the short rate diffusion process using observations from a panel of yields. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric drift function is correctly specified, and converges to infinity under the alternative. Taking the daily 7-day European rates as a proxy of the short rate, we use our test to examine whether the drift of the short rate diffusion process is linear or nonlinear, which is an unresolved important issue in the short rate modeling literature. The testing results indicate that none of the drift functions in this literature adequately captures the dynamics of the drift, but nonlinear specification performs better than the linear specification.

Keywords: diffusion process, nonparametric estimation, derivative security price, drift function and volatility function

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

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Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM_2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM_2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM_2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM₂.₅, fugitive, emission inventory

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Authors: Ashok Kumar, Shiv Brat Singh, Kalyan Kumar Ray

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There is growing awareness to design steels against fatigue damage Ferrite martensite dual-phase steels are known to exhibit favourable mechanical properties like good strength, ductility, toughness, continuous yielding, and high work hardening rate. However, dual-phase steels containing bainite as second phase are potential alternatives for ferrite martensite steels for certain applications where good fatigue property is required. Fatigue properties of dual phase steels are popularly assessed by the nature of variation of crack growth rate (da/dN) with stress intensity factor range (∆K), and the magnitude of fatigue threshold (∆Kth) for long cracks. There exists an increased emphasis to understand not only the long crack fatigue behavior but also short crack growth behavior of ferrite bainite dual phase steels. The major objective of this report is to examine the influence of microstructures on the short and long crack growth behavior of a series of developed dual-phase steels with varying amounts of bainite and. Three low carbon steels containing Nb, Cr and Mo as microalloying elements steels were selected for making ferrite-bainite dual-phase microstructures by suitable heat treatments. The heat treatment consisted of austenitizing the steel at 1100°C for 20 min, cooling at different rates in air prior to soaking these in a salt bath at 500°C for one hour, and finally quenching in water. Tensile tests were carried out on 25 mm gauge length specimens with 5 mm diameter using nominal strain rate 0.6x10⁻³ s⁻¹ at room temperature. Fatigue crack growth studies were made on a recently developed specimen configuration using a rotating bending machine. The crack growth was monitored by interrupting the test and observing the specimens under an optical microscope connected to an Image analyzer. The estimated crack lengths (a) at varying number of cycles (N) in different fatigue experiments were analyzed to obtain log da/dN vs. log °∆K curves for determining ∆Kthsc. The microstructural features of these steels have been characterized and their influence on the near threshold crack growth has been examined. This investigation, in brief, involves (i) the estimation of ∆Kthsc and (ii) the examination of the influence of microstructure on short and long crack fatigue threshold. The maximum fatigue threshold values obtained from short crack growth experiments on various specimens of dual-phase steels containing different amounts of bainite are found to increase with increasing bainite content in all the investigated steels. The variations of fatigue behavior of the selected steel samples have been explained with the consideration of varying amounts of the constituent phases and their interactions with the generated microstructures during cyclic loading. Quantitative estimation of the different types of fatigue crack paths indicates that the propensity of a crack to pass through the interfaces depends on the relative amount of the microstructural constituents. The fatigue crack path is found to be predominantly intra-granular except for the ones containing > 70% bainite in which it is predominantly inter-granular.

Keywords: bainite, dual phase steel, fatigue crack growth rate, long crack fatigue threshold, short crack fatigue threshold

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Authors: Eyad Almaita

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In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

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Authors: Michał Witas

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This paper presents a technical approach to analysis of security of SCADA systems. Main goal of the paper is to make SCADA administrators aware of risks resulting from SCADA systems usage and to familiarize with methods that can be adopt to existing or planned system, to increase overall system security level. Because SCADA based systems become a industrial standard, more attention should be paid to the security of that systems. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) like SCADA are responsible for controlling crucial aspects of wide range of industrial processes. In pair with that responsibility, goes a lot of money that can be earned or lost – this fact is main reason of increased interest of attackers. Additionally ICS are often responsible for maintaining resources strategic from the point of view of national economy, like electricity (including nuclear power plants), heating, water resources or military facilities, so they can be targets of terrorist cybernetic attacks. Without proper risk analysis and management, vulnerabilities resulting from the usage of SCADA can be easily exploited by potential attacker. Paper is based mostly on own experience in systems security, gathered during academic studies and professional work in international company. As title suggests, it will cover only basics of topic, because every of points mentioned in the document can be base for additional research and papers.

Keywords: denial of service, SCADA, security policy, distributed network

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Authors: Saurav Kumar Suman, P. Karthigayani

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In this paper the height of the tree is estimated and forest types is classified from the multi temporal RISAT-1 Horizontal-Horizontal (HH) and Horizontal-Vertical (HV) Polarised Satellite Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The novelty of the proposed project is combined use of the Back-scattering Coefficients (Sigma Naught) and the Coherence. It uses Water Cloud Model (WCM). The approaches use two main steps. (a) Extraction of the different forest parameter data from the Product.xml, BAND-META file and from Grid-xxx.txt file come with the HH & HV polarized data from the ISRO (Indian Space Research Centre). These file contains the required parameter during height estimation. (b) Calculation of the Vegetation and Ground Backscattering, Coherence and other Forest Parameters. (c) Classification of Forest Types using the ENVI 5.0 Tool and ROI (Region of Interest) calculation.

Keywords: RISAT-1, classification, forest, SAR data

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Authors: Changgil Lee, Seunghee Park

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Although vehicle driving test for the development of BWIM system is necessary, but it needs much cost and time in addition application of various driving condition. Thus, we need the numerical-simulation method resolving the cost and time problems of vehicle driving test and the way of measuring response of bridge according to the various driving condition. Using the precision analysis model reflecting the dynamic characteristic is contributed to increase accuracy in numerical simulation. In this paper, we conduct a numerical simulation to apply precision analysis model, which reflects the dynamic characteristic of bridge using Bridge Weigh-in-Motion technique and suggest overload vehicle enforcement technology using precision analysis model.

Keywords: bridge weigh-in-motion(BWIM) system, precision analysis model, dynamic characteristic of bridge, numerical simulation

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Authors: Daniel Pastor, Hyo-Sang Shin

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This paper presents a novel method to use optical flow navigation for long-term navigation. Unlike standard SLAM approaches for augmented reality, OFLAAM is designed for Micro Air Vehicles (MAV). It uses an optical flow camera pointing downwards, an IMU and a monocular camera pointing frontwards. That configuration avoids the expensive mapping and tracking of the 3D features. It only maps these features in a vocabulary list by a localization module to tackle the loss of the navigation estimation. That module, based on the well-established algorithm DBoW2, will be also used to close the loop and allow long-term navigation in confined areas. That combination of high-speed optical flow navigation with a low rate localization algorithm allows fully autonomous navigation for MAV, at the same time it reduces the overall computational load. This framework is implemented in ROS (Robot Operating System) and tested attached to a laptop. A representative scenarios is used to analyse the performance of the system.

Keywords: vision, UAV, navigation, SLAM

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Authors: Chengli Liu, C. K. M. Lee

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The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.

Keywords: bias, competing newsvendor, Nash equilibrium, overestimation

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