Search results for: decision model

Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Fatih Iscan, Ceren Yagci

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Rapid population growth, urbanization and industrialization are known as the most important factors of environment problems. Elimination and management of solid wastes are also within the most important environment problems. One of the main problems in solid waste management is the selection of the best site for elimination of solid wastes. Lately, Geographical Information System (GIS) has been used for easing selection of landfill area. GIS has the ability of imitating necessary economical, environmental and political limitations. They play an important role for the site selection of landfill area as a decision support tool. In this study; map layers will be studied for minimum effect of environmental, social and cultural factors and maximum effect for engineering/economical factors for site selection of landfill areas and using GIS for an decision support mechanism in solid waste landfill areas site selection will be presented in Aksaray/TURKEY city, Güzelyurt district practice.

Keywords: GIS, landfill, solid waste, spatial analysis

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship

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Authors: Amit Kumar Dwivedi, Priyanko Ghosh

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Data Envelopment analysis (DEA) has been used to calculate the technical and scale efficiency measures of the public and private sugar manufacturing firms of the Indian Sugar Industry (2006 to 2010). Within DEA framework, the input & Output oriented Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) & Constant Return to Scale (CRS) model is employed for the study of Decision making units (DMUs). A representative sample of 43 firms which account for major portion of the total market share is studied. The selection criterion for the inclusion of a firm in the analysis was the total sales of INR 5,000 million or more in the year 2010. After reviewing the literature it is found that no study has been conducted in the context of Indian sugar manufacturing firms in the Post-liberalization era which motivates us to initiate the study.

Keywords: technical efficiency, Indian sugar manufacturing units, DEA, input output oriented

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Authors: H. Jalahi, A. Yazdanpanah Nozari

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Background and Purpose: Assessment of learners’ performance is an important factors in teaching-learning process. When a factor is sensitive and has high influence on life, their assessment should be done precisely. Thinking dispositions are very important factors in medical education because of its specific condition. In this study a model is designed for fostering thinking dispositions of learners in which authentic assessment is an important element. Materials and Methods: Objective based research is developmental, and such a model was not designed for curricula. Data collection and comparing approaches about assessment and analyzing current assessments offered applied proposals. Results: Based on research findings, the current assessments are response-based, that is students instead of product of response, only offers the specific response which the teachers expects; but authentic assessment is a form of assessment in which students are asked to perform real-word tasks that demonstrate meaningful application of essential knowledge and skills. Conclusion: Because of the difficulties and unexpected problems in life and individuals needs to lifelong learning and conditions in medical course that require decision making in specific times, we must pay attention to reach thinking dispositions and it should be included in curriculum. Authentic assessment as an important aspect of curriculum can help fostering thinking dispositions of learners. Using this kind of assessments which focus on application of information and skills to solve real-word tasks have more important role in medical courses.

Keywords: assessment, authentic, medical courses, developmental

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Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Medani Prasad Rijal

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The study outlines the impacts of decentralized forest policy on natural Sal (shorea robusta) forests in the Terai region of Nepal. The government has implemented community forestry program to manage the forest resources and improve the livelihood of local people collectively. The forest management authorities such as conserve, manage, develop and use of forest resources were shifted to the local communities, however, the ownership right of the forestland retained by the government. Local communities took the decision on harvesting, distribution, and sell of forest products by fixing the prices independently. The local communities were putting the low value of forest products and distributed among the user households on the name of collective decision. The decision of low valuation is devaluating the worth of forest products. Therefore, the study hypothesized that decision-making capacities are equally prominent next to the decentralized policy and program formulation. To accomplish the study, individual to group level discussions and questionnaire survey methods were applied with executive committee members and user households. The study revealed that the local intuition called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) committee normally took the decisions on consensus basis. Considering to the access and affording capacity of user households having poor economic backgrounds, low pricing mechanism of forest products has been practiced, even though the Sal timber is far expensive in the local market. The local communities thought that low pricing mechanism is accessible to all user households from poor to better off households. However, the analysis of forest products distribution opposed the assumption as most of the Sal timber, which is the most valuable forest product of community forest only purchased by the limited households of better economic conditions. Since the Terai region is heterogeneous by socio-economic conditions, better off households always have higher affording capacity and possibility of taking higher timber benefits because of low price mechanism. On the other hand, the minimum price rate of forest products has poor contribution in community fund collection. Consequently, it has poor support to carry out poverty alleviation activities to poor people. The local communities have been fixed Sal timber price rate around three times cheaper than normal market price, which is a strong evidence of forest product devaluation itself. Finally, the study concluded that the capacity building of local executives as the decision-makers of natural Sal forests is equally indispensable next to the policy and program formulation for effective decentralized forest management. Unilateral decentralized forest policy may devaluate the forest products rather than devolve of power to the local communities and empower to them.

Keywords: community forestry program, decentralized forest policy, Nepal, Sal forests, Terai

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Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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Authors: A. Abbou, V. Makis, N. Salari

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We study the condition-based maintenance (CBM) problem of a system subject to stochastic deterioration. The system is composed of three units (or modules): (i) Module 1 deterioration follows a Markov process with two operational states and one failure state. The operational states are partially observable through periodic condition monitoring. (ii) Module 2 deterioration follows a Gamma process with a known failure threshold. The deterioration level of this module is fully observable through periodic inspections. (iii) Only the operating age information is available of Module 3. The lifetime of this module has a general distribution. A CBM policy prescribes when to initiate a maintenance intervention and which modules to repair during intervention. Our objective is to determine the optimal CBM policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost of operating the system. This is achieved by formulating a Markov decision process (MDP) and developing the value iteration algorithm for solving the MDP. We provide numerical examples illustrating the cost-effectiveness of the optimal CBM policy through a comparison with heuristic policies commonly found in the literature.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, Markov decision process, heuristics

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Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

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In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.

Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model

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Authors: Mehmet Bulent Topkaya, Mustafa Yildirim

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Wastewater treatment systems are designed and used to minimize adverse impacts of the wastewater on the environment before discharging. Various treatment options for wastewater treatment have been developed, and each of them has different performance characteristics and environmental impacts (e.g. material and land usage, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission, water and soil emission) during construction, operation or maintenance phases. Assessing the environmental impacts during these phases are essential for the overall evaluation of the treatment systems. In this study, wastewater treatment options, such as vegetated land treatment, constructed wetland, rotating biological contactor, conventional activated sludge treatment, membrane bioreactor, extended aeration and stabilization pond are evaluated. The comparison of the environmental impacts is conducted under the assumption that the effluents will be discharged to sensitive and less sensitive areas respectively. The environmental impacts of each alternative are evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. For this purpose, data related to energy usage, land requirement, raw material consumption, and released emissions from the life phases were collected with inventory studies based on field studies and literature. The environmental impacts were assessed by using SimaPro 7.1 LCA software. As the scale of the LCA results is global, an MS-Excel based decision support tool that includes the LCA result is developed in order to meet also the local demands. Using this tool, it is possible to assign weight factors on the LCA results according to local conditions by using Analytical Hierarchy Process and finally the most environmentally appropriate treatment option can be selected.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, decision support system, life cycle assessment, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Oualid Walid Ben Ali

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Big Data has become one of the buzzwords today. The recent explosion of digital data has led the organization, either private or public, to a new era towards a more efficient decision making. At some point, business decided to use that concept in order to learn what make their clients tick with phrases like ‘sales funnel’ analysis, ‘actionable insights’, and ‘positive business impact’. So, it stands to reason that Big Data was viewed through green (read: money) colored lenses. Somewhere along the line, however someone realized that collecting and processing data doesn’t have to be for business purpose only, but also could be used for other purposes to assist law enforcement or to improve policing or in road safety. This paper presents briefly, how Big Data have been used in the fields of policing order to improve the decision making process in the daily operation of the police. As example, we present a big-data driven system which is sued to accurately dispatch the patrol cars in a geographic environment. The system is also used to allocate, in real-time, the nearest patrol car to the location of an incident. This system has been implemented and applied in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi in the UAE.

Keywords: big data, big data analytics, patrol car allocation, dispatching, GIS, intelligent, Abu Dhabi, police, UAE

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Authors: Brady Manescau, Ilyas Sellami, Khaled Chetehouna, Charles De Izarra, Rachid Nait-Said, Fati Zidani

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During a fire in an oil and gas refinery, several thermal accidents can occur and cause serious damage to people and environment. Among these accidents, the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) is most observed and remains a major concern for risk decision-makers. It corresponds to a violent vaporization of explosive nature following the rupture of a vessel containing a liquid at a temperature significantly higher than its normal boiling point at atmospheric pressure. Their effects on the environment generally appear in three ways: blast overpressure, radiation from the fireball if the liquid involved is flammable and fragment hazards. In order to estimate the potential damage that would be caused by such an explosion, risk decision-makers often use quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This analysis is a rigorous and advanced approach that requires a reliable data in order to obtain a good estimate and control of risks. However, in most cases, the data used in QRA are obtained from the empirical correlations. These empirical correlations generally overestimate BLEVE effects because they are based on simplifications and do not take into account real parameters like the geometry effect. Considering that these risk analyses are based on an assessment of BLEVE effects on human life and plant equipment, more precise and reliable data should be provided. From this point of view, the CFD modeling of BLEVE effects appears as a solution to the empirical law limitations. In this context, the main objective is to develop a numerical tool in order to predict BLEVE thermal effects using the CFD code FDS version 6. Simulations are carried out with a mesh size of 1 m. The fireball source is modeled as a vertical release of hot fuel in a short time. The modeling of fireball dynamics is based on a single step combustion using an EDC model coupled with the default LES turbulence model. Fireball characteristics (diameter, height, heat flux and lifetime) issued from the large scale BAM experiment are used to demonstrate the ability of FDS to simulate the various steps of the BLEVE phenomenon from ignition up to total burnout. The influence of release parameters such as the injection rate and the radiative fraction on the fireball heat flux is also presented. Predictions are very encouraging and show good agreement in comparison with BAM experiment data. In addition, a numerical study is carried out on an operational propane accumulator in an Algerian gas processing plant of SONATRACH company located in the Hassi R’Mel Gas Field (the largest gas field in Algeria).

Keywords: BLEVE effects, CFD, FDS, fireball, LES, QRA

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.

Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education

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Authors: Stefan Peters, Phillip Roetman

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The global loss of biodiversity is threatening the benefits nature provides to human populations and has become a more pressing issue than climate change and requires immediate attention. While there have been successful global agreements for environmental protection, such as the Montreal Protocol, these are rare, and we cannot rely on them solely. Thus, it is crucial to take national and local actions to support biodiversity. Australia is one of the 17 countries in the world with a high level of biodiversity, and its cities are vital habitats for endangered species, with more of them found in urban areas than in non-urban ones. However, the protection of biodiversity in metropolitan Adelaide has been inadequate, with over 130 species disappearing since European colonization in 1836. In this research project we conceptualized, developed and implemented a framework for wildlife Habitat Hotspots and Habitat Corridor modelling in an urban context using geographic data and GIS modelling and analysis. We used detailed topographic and other geographic data provided by a local council, including spatial and attributive properties of trees, parcels, water features, vegetated areas, roads, verges, traffic, and census data. Weighted factors considered in our raster-based Habitat Hotspot model include parcel size, parcel shape, population density, canopy cover, habitat quality and proximity to habitats and water features. Weighted factors considered in our raster-based Habitat Corridor model include habitat potential (resulting from the Habitat Hotspot model), verge size, road hierarchy, road widths, human density, and presence of remnant indigenous vegetation species. We developed a GIS model, using Python scripting and ArcGIS-Pro Model-Builder, to establish an automated reproducible and adjustable geoprocessing workflow, adaptable to any study area of interest. Our habitat hotspot and corridor modelling framework allow to determine and map existing habitat hotspots and wildlife habitat corridors. Our research had been applied to the study case of Burnside, a local council in Adelaide, Australia, which encompass an area of 30 km2. We applied end-user expertise-based category weightings to refine our models and optimize the use of our habitat map outputs towards informing local strategic decision-making.

Keywords: biodiversity, GIS modeling, habitat hotspot, wildlife corridor

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Authors: Suparman Suparman

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A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari

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In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.

Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality

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Authors: K. G. R. M. Jayathilake, S. Rudra

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Wood degradation in hot compressed water is modeled with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code using cellulose, xylan, and lignin as model compounds. Model compounds are reacted under catalyst-free conditions in a temperature range from 250 to 370 °C. Using a simplified reaction scheme where water soluble products, methanol soluble products, char like compounds and gas are generated through intermediates with each model compound. A modified multistage shrinking core model is developed to simulate particle degradation. In the modified shrinking core model, each model compound is hydrolyzed in separate stages. Cellulose is decomposed to glucose/oligomers before producing degradation products. Xylan is decomposed through xylose and then to degradation products where lignin is decomposed into soluble products before producing the total guaiacol, organic carbon (TOC) and then char and gas. Hydrolysis of each model compound is used as the main reaction of the process. Diffusion of water monomers to the particle surface to initiate hydrolysis and dissolution of the products in water is given importance during the modeling process. In the developed model the temperature variation depends on the Arrhenius relationship. Kinetic parameters from the literature are used for the mathematical model. Meanwhile, limited initial fast reaction kinetic data limit the development of more accurate CFD models. Liquefaction results of the CFD model are analyzed and validated using the experimental data available in the literature where it shows reasonable agreement.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, liquefaction, shrinking-core, wood

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Authors: A. Ascenso, C. Silveira, B. Augusto, S. Rafael, S. Coelho, J. Ferreira, A. Monteiro, P. Roebeling, A. I. Miranda

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Innovative nature-based solutions (NBSs) can provide answers to the challenges that urban areas are currently facing due to urban densification and extreme weather conditions. The effects of NBSs are recognized and include improved quality of life, mental and physical health and improvement of air quality, among others. Part of the work developed in the scope of the UNaLab project, which aims to guide cities in developing and implementing their own co-creative NBSs, intends to assess the impacts of NBSs on air quality, using Eindhoven city as a case study. The state-of-the-art online air quality modelling system WRF-CHEM was applied to simulate meteorological and concentration fields over the study area with a spatial resolution of 1 km2 for the year 2015. The baseline simulation (without NBSs) was validated by comparing the model results with monitored data retrieved from the Eindhoven air quality database, showing an adequate model performance. In addition, land use changes were applied in a set of simulations to assess the effects of different types of NBSs. Finally, these simulations were compared with the baseline scenario and the impacts of the NBSs were assessed. Reductions on pollutant concentrations, namely for NOx and PM, were found after the application of the NBSs in the Eindhoven study area. The present work is particularly important to support public planners and decision makers in understanding the effects of their actions and planning more sustainable cities for the future.

Keywords: air quality, modelling approach, nature based solutions, urban area

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Authors: Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Andrew Palangio, Chirag Savaliya, Jenil Patel

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Oversized material resulting from blasting presents a notable drawback in the transportation of run-off-mine material due to increased expenses associated with handling, decreased efficiency in loading, and greater wear on digging equipment. Its irregular size and weight demand additional resources and time for secondary breakage, impacting overall productivity and profitability. This paper addresses the limitations of interpreting image analysis software results and applying them to the assessment of blast-generated oversized materials. This comprehensive guide utilizes both ortho mosaic and digital photos to provide critical approaches for optimizing fragmentation analysis and improving decision-making in mining operations. It briefly covers post-blast assessment, blast block heat map interpretation, and material loading decision-making recommendations.

Keywords: blast result assessment, WipFrag, oversize identification, orthomosaic images, production optimization

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Authors: Emad Mohammed Sani

Abstract:

Women encounter exclusion and discrimination in varying degrees, particularly those who marry as minors. The detrimental custom of getting married young is still prevalent worldwide and affects millions of people. It has been less common over time, although it is still widespread in underdeveloped nations. Oromia Regional State is the region in Ethiopia with the highest proportion of child brides. This study aimed at evaluating the effects of early marriage on its survivors’ life conditions – specifically, empowerment and household decision-making – in Eastern Hararghe Zone of Oromia Region. This study employed community-based cross-sectional study design. It adopted mixed method approach – survey, in-depth interview and focus group discussion (FGD) – to collect, analyses and interpret data on early marriage and its effects on household decision-making processes. Narratives and analytical descriptions were integrated to substantiate and/or explain observed quantitative results, or generate contextual themes. According to this study, married women who were married at or after the age of eighteen participated more in household decision-making than child brides. Child brides were more likely to be victims of violence and other types of spousal abuse in their marriages. These changes are mostly caused by an individual's age at first marriage. Delaying marriage had a large positive impact on women's empowerment at the household level, and age at first marriage had a considerable negative impact. In order to advance women's welfare and emancipation, we advise more research to concentrate on the relationship between the home and the social-structural forms that appear at the individual and communal levels.

Keywords: child-bride, early marriage, women, ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model, namely the crystal model, has been modified to calculate the radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to ⁸Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid-state physics, which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has obtained from analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in a general form. The equation that has been used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force, where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in ⁶Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+⁶,⁷Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both the radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of ⁹Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear physics, nuclear lattice, study nucleus as crystal, light nuclei till to ⁸Be

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Narong Anurak

Abstract:

The objectives of the study were to determine the factors influencing tourists’ destination decision making for cultural tourism in the southern provinces, to examine the potential for developing cultural tourism and to guideline for marketing strategy for cultural tourism in Nakhon Si Thammarat. Both quantitative and qualitative data were applied in this study. The samples of 400 cases for quantitative analysis were tourists who were interested in cultural tourism in the southern provinces, and traveled to cultural sites in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Surat Thani, and Phuket, and 14 representatives from provincial tourism committee of Nakhon Si Thammarat. The study found that Thai and foreign tourists are influenced by different important marketing mix factors (7Ps) when making decisions for cultural tourism in southern provinces. The important factors for Thai respondents were physical evidence, price, people, and place at high importance level, whereas, product, process, and promotion were moderate importance level as well.

Keywords: marketing mix factors, Nakhon Si Thammarat province, sustainable cultural tourism, tourists decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

Abstract:

We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 196