Search results for: availability modeling

Authors: Maxime Alex Junior Kuitche, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez, Jean-Chirstophe Maunand

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The evolution of aircraft is closely linked to the study and improvement of propulsion systems. Determining the propulsion performance is a real challenge in aircraft modeling and design. In addition to theoretical methodologies, experimental procedures are used to obtain a good estimation of the propulsion performances. For piston-propeller propulsion, the propeller needs several experimental tests which could be extremely demanding in terms of time and money. This paper presents a new procedure to estimate the performance of a propeller from a numerical approach using computational fluid dynamic analysis. The propeller was initially scanned, and then, its 3D model was represented using CATIA. A structured meshing and Shear Stress Transition k-ω turbulence model were applied to describe accurately the flow pattern around the propeller. Thus, the Partial Differential Equations were solved using ANSYS FLUENT software. The method was applied on the UAS-S45’s propeller designed and manufactured by Hydra Technologies in Mexico. An extensive investigation was performed for several flight conditions in terms of altitudes and airspeeds with the aim to determine thrust coefficients, power coefficients and efficiency of the propeller. The Computational Fluid Dynamics results were compared with experimental data acquired from wind tunnel tests performed at the LARCASE Price-Paidoussis wind tunnel. The results of this comparison have demonstrated that our approach was highly accurate.

Keywords: CFD analysis, propeller performance, unmanned aerial system propeller, UAS-S45

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Authors: Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu

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Developing complete mechanistic models for polymerization reactors is not easy, because complex reactions occur simultaneously; there is a large number of kinetic parameters involved and sometimes the chemical and physical phenomena for mixtures involving polymers are poorly understood. To overcome these difficulties, empirical models based on sampled data can be used instead, namely regression methods typical of machine learning field. They have the ability to learn the trends of a process without any knowledge about its particular physical and chemical laws. Therefore, they are useful for modeling complex processes, such as the free radical polymerization of methyl methacrylate achieved in a batch bulk process. The goal is to generate accurate predictions of monomer conversion, numerical average molecular weight and gravimetrical average molecular weight. This process is associated with non-linear gel and glass effects. For this purpose, an adaptive sampling technique is presented, which can select more samples around the regions where the values have a higher variation. Several machine learning methods are used for the modeling and their performance is compared: support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, k-nearest neighbor and random forest, as well as an original algorithm, large margin nearest neighbor regression. The suggested method provides very good results compared to the other well-known regression algorithms.

Keywords: batch bulk methyl methacrylate polymerization, adaptive sampling, machine learning, large margin nearest neighbor regression

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Authors: Natasha Gabriella, Josef-Peter Schöggl, Alfred Posch

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Being a mature industry, pulp and paper industry (PPI) possess strength points coming from its existing infrastructure, technology know-how, and abundant availability of biomass. However, the declining trend of the wood-based products sales sends a clear signal to the industry to transform its business model in order to increase its profitability. With the emerging global attention on bio-based economy and circular economy, coupled with the low price of fossil feedstock, the PPI starts to integrate biorefinery as a value-added business model to keep the industry’s competitiveness. Nonetheless, biorefinery as an innovation exposes the PPI with some barriers, of which the uncertainty of the promising product becomes one of the major hurdles. This study aims to assess factors that affect the diffusion and development of forest biorefinery in the PPI, including drivers, barriers, advantages, disadvantages, as well as the most promising bio-based products of forest biorefinery. The study examines the identified factors according to the layer of business environment, being the macro-environment, industry, and strategic group level. Besides, an overview of future state of the identified factors is elaborated as to map necessary improvements for implementing forest biorefinery. A two-phase Delphi method is used to collect the empirical data for the study, comprising of an online-based survey and interviews. Delphi method is an effective communication tools to elicit ideas from a group of experts to further reach a consensus of forecasting future trends. Collaborating a total of 50 experts in the panel, the study reveals that influential factors are found in every layers of business of the PPI. The politic dimension is apparent to have a significant influence for tackling the economy barrier while reinforcing the environmental and social benefits in the macro-environment. In the industry level, the biomass availability appears to be a strength point of the PPI while the knowledge gap on technology and market seem to be barriers. Consequently, cooperation with academia and the chemical industry has to be improved. Human resources issue is indicated as one important premise behind the preceding barrier, along with the indication of the PPI’s resistance towards biorefinery implementation as an innovation. Further, cellulose-based products are acknowledged for near-term product development whereas lignin-based products are emphasized to gain importance in the long-term future.

Keywords: forest biorefinery, pulp and paper, bio-based product, Delphi method

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Authors: Gareth Baxter

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We use a mathematical model of language change to examine two recently observed patterns of language change: one in which most speakers change gradually, following the mean of the community change, and one in which most individuals use predominantly one variant or another, and change rapidly if they change at all. The model is based on Croft’s Utterance Selection account of language change, which views language change as an evolutionary process, in which different variants (different ‘ways of saying the same thing’) compete for usage in a population of speakers. Language change occurs when a new variant replaces an older one as the convention within a given population. The present model extends a previous simpler model to include effects related to speaker aging and interspeaker variation in behaviour. The two patterns of individual change (one more centralized and the other more polarized) were recently observed in historical language changes, and it was further observed that slower changes were more associated with the centralized pattern, while quicker changes were more polarized. Our model suggests that the two patterns of change can be explained by different balances between the preference of speakers to use one variant over another and the degree of accommodation to (propensity to adapt towards) other speakers. The correlation with the rate of change appears naturally in our model, and results from the fact that both differential weighting of variants and the degree of accommodation affect the time for change to occur, while also determining the patterns of change. This work represents part of an ongoing effort to examine phenomena in language change through the use of mathematical models. This offers another way to evaluate qualitative explanations that cannot be practically tested (or cannot be tested at all) in a real-world, large-scale speech community.

Keywords: agent based modeling, cultural evolution, language change, social behavior modeling, social influence

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Authors: A. Elsariti, T. Evans

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The propagation mechanisms in the trabecular bone are poorly understood and have been the subject of extended debate; also, steel wool has been evaluated as a potential bone mimic, Its advantages are ready availability, low cost and a wide range of sizes. In this study, both distilled and tap water were used to estimate the ultrasonic attenuation in coarse steel wool. It is clear from the results that the attenuation of coarse steel wool increased as the distance between the transducers decreased, and it is higher in tap water than distilled water. At 9cm distance between the transducers the attenuation was approximately 0.97 and 4.7 dB in distilled and tap water respectively. While it is 6.97 and 12.2 dB in distilled and tap water respectively at distance 4cm. This change in the attenuation between both distilled and tap water is probably due to gas bubbles in the tap water.

Keywords: bone mimic, porosity, tap water, distilled water, ultrasonic attenuation

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Authors: Selamawit Dires, Solomon Tesfamariam, Thomas Tannert

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Modern earthquake engineering and design encompass performance-based design philosophy. The main objective in performance-based design is to achieve a system performing precisely to meet the design objectives so to reduce unintended seismic risks and associated losses. Energy-based earthquake-resistant design is one of the design methodologies that can be implemented in performance-based earthquake engineering. In energy-based design, the seismic demand is usually described as the ratio of the hysteretic to input energy. Once the hysteretic energy is known as a percentage of the input energy, it is distributed among energy-dissipating components of a structure. The hysteretic to input energy ratio is highly dependent on the inherent damping of a structural system. In numerical analysis, damping can be modeled as stiffness-proportional, mass-proportional, or a linear combination of stiffness and mass. In this study, the effect of mathematical modeling of damping on the estimation of seismic energy demands is investigated by considering elastic-perfectly-plastic single-degree-of-freedom systems representing short to long period structures. Furthermore, the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, is used in the nonlinear time history analysis. According to the preliminary results, the input energy demand is not sensitive to the type of damping models deployed. Hence, consistent results are achieved regardless of the damping models utilized in the numerical analyses. On the other hand, the hysteretic to input energy ratios vary significantly for the different damping models.

Keywords: damping, energy-based seismic design, hysteretic energy, input energy

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Authors: Kieren Wilson, Gulnaz Majeed

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NHS constitution gives rights to the patient with suspected cancer to be seen by a cancer specialist within 2 weeks of referral. Guys and St Thomas Hospital (GSTT) is one of the largest cancer centres in London. NICE guidelines have provided guidance for health professionals to refer patients appropriately to RAC. In GSTT suspected gynae cancer referrals are mostly by NHS e-Referral Service with some fax, emails as well as paper referrals. The objective of this study was to evaluate compliance with 2-week referral pathway with emphasis on one stop diagnostic service with supporting efficient pathways. A prospective evaluation over 3 months (1 Jan 2017 to 31 Mar 2017) was undertaken. There were 26 clinics, 761 patients were booked in the clinics with a DNA rate of 13% (n=101) hence 606 patients were seen. Majority of referrals were for post menopausal bleeding (PMB) 25% (n=194) followed by cervical, vaginal, vulval reasons 23% (n=179) (abnormal cytology excluded as patients directly referred to colposcopy unit in GSTT), ovarian 7% (n=54) and endometrial 5% (n=41). Women with new or previous established diagnosis of cancer were 24, cervical (n=17), vulva (n=6) and vagina (n=1). Multifocal preinvasive disease vulva (VIN), vagina (VAIN) and cervix (CIN) was confirmed in twenty-six patients 4% (high prevalence in HIV patients). Majority of cervical referrals: PCB (n=14), cervical erosion (n=7), polyps (n=9) and cervical cyst were benign. However, two women with PMB had cervical cancer. Only 2 out of 13 referrals with vaginal concerns had VAIN. One case with non-cervical glandular cytology was confirmed to have endometrial cancer. One stop service based on the diagnostic support of ultrasound, colposcopy and hysteroscopy was achieved in 54% (n=359). Patients were discharged to GP, benign gynaecology, endometriosis, combined vulval/dermatology clinic or gynae oncology. 33% (n=202) required a second visit, 12% (n=70) third visit, 3% (n=19) fourth visit, 1% (n=4) fifth visit and 1% (n=6) sixth visit. Main reasons for follow ups were the unavailability of diagnostic slots, patient choice, need for interpreters, the discussion following gynae MDM review for triage to benign gynae, delay in availability of diagnostic results like histology/MRI/CT. Recommendations following this study are multi disciplinary review of pathways with the availability of additional diagnostic procedure slots to aim for one stop service. Furthermore, establishment of virtual and telephone consultations to reduce follow ups.

Keywords: multifocal disease, post menopausal bleeding, preinvasive disease, rapid access clinic

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Authors: Zeinab Yazdanfar, Dilan Robert, Daniel Lester, S. Setunge

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Scour has been identified as the most common threat to bridge stability worldwide. Traditionally, scour around bridge piers is calculated using the empirical approaches that have considerable limitations and are difficult to generalize. The multi-physic nature of scouring which involves turbulent flow, soil mechanics and solid-fluid interactions cannot be captured by simple empirical equations developed based on limited laboratory data. These limitations can be overcome by direct numerical modeling of coupled hydro-mechanical scour process that provides a robust prediction of bridge scour and valuable insights into the scour process. Several numerical models have been proposed in the literature for bridge scour estimation including Eulerian flow models and coupled Euler-Lagrange models incorporating an empirical sediment transport description. However, the contact forces between particles and the flow-particle interaction haven’t been taken into consideration. Incorporating collisional and frictional forces between soil particles as well as the effect of flow-driven forces on particles will facilitate accurate modeling of the complex nature of scour. In this study, a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Discrete Element Model (CFD-DEM) has been developed to simulate the scour process that directly models the hydro-mechanical interactions between the sediment particles and the flowing water. This approach obviates the need for an empirical description as the fundamental fluid-particle, and particle-particle interactions are fully resolved. The sediment bed is simulated as a dense pack of particles and the frictional and collisional forces between particles are calculated, whilst the turbulent fluid flow is modeled using a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stocks (RANS) approach. The CFD-DEM model is validated against experimental data in order to assess the reliability of the CFD-DEM model. The modeling results reveal the criticality of particle impact on the assessment of scour depth which, to the authors’ best knowledge, hasn’t been considered in previous studies. The results of this study open new perspectives to the scour depth and time assessment which is the key to manage the failure risk of bridge infrastructures.

Keywords: bridge scour, discrete element method, CFD-DEM model, multi-phase model

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Authors: Yanuar Tri Wahyu Saputra, Ramadhani Pamapta Putra

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Karimunjawa is one among Indonesian islands which is lacking of electricity supply. Despite condition above, Karimunjawa is an important tourism object in Indonesia's Central Java Province. Solar Power Plant is a potential technology to be applied in Karimunjawa, in order to fulfill the island's electrical supply need and to increase daily life and tourism quality among tourists and local population. This optimation modeling of Karimunjawa uses HOMER software program. The data we uses include wind speed data in Karimunjawa from BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics), annual weather data in Karimunjawa from NASA, electricity requirements assumption data based on number of houses and business infrastructures in Karimunjawa. This modeling aims to choose which three system categories offer the highest financial profit with the lowest total Net Present Cost (NPC). The first category uses only PV with 8000 kW of electrical power and NPC value of $6.830.701. The second category uses hybrid system which involves both 1000 kW PV and 100 kW generator which results in total NPC of $6.865.590. The last category uses only generator with 750 kW of electrical power that results in total NPC of $ 16.368.197, the highest total NPC among the three categories. Based on the analysis above, we can conclude that the most optimal way to fulfill the electricity needs in Karimunjawa is to use 8000 kW PV with lower maintenance cost.

Keywords: Karimunjawa, renewable energy, solar power plant, HOMER

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Authors: Thamer Kubat, Riadh Al-Mahaidi, Ahmad Shayan

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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) in concrete has a negative influence on the mechanical properties and durability of concrete. Confinement by carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is an effective method of treatment for some AAR-affected elements. Eighteen reinforced columns affected by different levels of expansion due to AAR were confined using CFRP to evaluate the effect of expansion level on confinement efficiency. Strength and strain capacities (axial and circumferential) were measured using photogrammetry under uniaxial compressive loading to evaluate the efficiency of CFRP wrapping for the rehabilitation of affected columns. In relation to uniaxial compression capacity, the results indicated that the confinement of AAR-affected columns by one layer of CFRP is sufficient to reach and exceed the load capacity of unaffected sound columns. Parallel to the experimental study, finite element (FE) modeling using ATENA software was employed to predict the behavior of CFRP-confined damaged concrete and determine the possibility of using the model in a parametric study by simulating the number of CFRP layers. A comparison of the experimental results with the results of the theoretical models showed that FE modeling could be used for the prediction of the behavior of confined AAR-damaged concrete.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), finite element (FE), ATENA, confinement efficiency

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Authors: Hassan M. H. Mustafa

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This piece of research addresses an interesting comparative analytical study. Which considers two concepts of diverse algorithmic computational intelligence approaches related tightly with Neural and Non-Neural Systems. The first algorithmic intelligent approach concerned with observed obtained practical results after three neural animal systems’ activities. Namely, they are Pavlov’s, and Thorndike’s experimental work. Besides a mouse’s trial during its movement inside figure of eight (8) maze, to reach an optimal solution for reconstruction problem. Conversely, second algorithmic intelligent approach originated from observed activities’ results for Non-Neural Ant Colony System (ACS). These results obtained after reaching an optimal solution while solving Traveling Sales-man Problem (TSP). Interestingly, the effect of increasing number of agents (either neurons or ants) on learning performance shown to be similar for both introduced systems. Finally, performance of both intelligent learning paradigms shown to be in agreement with learning convergence process searching for least mean square error LMS algorithm. While its application for training some Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Accordingly, adopted ANN modeling is a relevant and realistic tool to investigate observations and analyze performance for both selected computational intelligence (biological behavioral learning) systems.

Keywords: artificial neural network modeling, animal learning, ant colony system, traveling salesman problem, computational biology

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Authors: Belal Mohamadi Kalesar, Raouf Hasanpour

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Proper placement of Distributed Generation (DG) units such as wind turbine generators in distribution system are still very challenging issue for obtaining their maximum potential benefits because inappropriate placement may increase the system losses. This paper proposes Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for optimal placement of wind based DG (WDG) in the primary distribution system to reduce energy losses and voltage profile improvement with four different wind levels modeling in year duration. Also, wind turbine is modeled as a DFIG that will be operated at unity power factor and only one wind turbine tower will be considered to install at each bus of network. Finally, proposed method will be implemented on widely used 69 bus power distribution system in MATLAB software environment under four scenario (without, one, two and three WDG units) and for capability test of implemented program it is supposed that all buses of standard system can be candidate for WDG installing (large search space), though this program can consider predetermined number of candidate location in WDG placement to model financial limitation of project. Obtained results illustrate that wind speed increasing in some months will increase output power generated but this can increase / decrease power loss in some wind level, also results show that it is required about 3MW WDG capacity to install in different buses but when this is distributed in overall network (more number of WDG) it can cause better solution from point of view of power loss and voltage profile.

Keywords: wind turbine, DG placement, wind levels effect, PSO algorithm

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Authors: Ahmed Slami, Med El Amine Brixi Nigassa, Nassima Labdelli, Sofiane Soulimane, Arnaud Pothier

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Many people suffer from diabetes, a disease marked by abnormal levels of sugar in the blood; 285 million people have diabetes, 6.6% of the world adult population (in 2010), according to the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin medicament is invented to be injected into the body. Generally, the injection requires the patient to do it manually. However, in many cases he will be unable to inject the drug, saw that among the side effects of hyperglycemia is the weakness of the whole body. The researchers designed a medical device that injects insulin too autonomously by using micro-pumps. Many micro-pumps of concepts have been investigated during the last two decades for injecting molecules in blood or in the body. However, all these micro-pumps are intended for slow infusion of drug (injection of few microliters by minute). Now, the challenge is to develop micro-pumps for fast injections (1 microliter in 10 seconds) with accuracy of the order of microliter. Recently, studies have shown that only piezoelectric actuators can achieve this performance, knowing that few systems at the microscopic level were presented. These reasons lead us to design new smart microsystems injection drugs. Therefore, many technological advances are still to achieve the improvement of materials to their uses, while going through their characterization and modeling action mechanisms themselves. Moreover, it remains to study the integration of the piezoelectric micro-pump in the microfluidic platform features to explore and evaluate the performance of these new micro devices. In this work, we propose a new micro-pump model based on piezoelectric actuation with a new design. Here, we use a finite element model with Comsol software. Our device is composed of two pumping chambers, two diaphragms and two actuators (piezoelectric disks). The latter parts will apply a mechanical force on the membrane in a periodic manner. The membrane deformation allows the fluid pumping, the suction and discharge of the liquid. In this study, we present the modeling results as function as device geometry properties, films thickness, and materials properties. Here, we demonstrate that we can achieve fast injection. The results of these simulations will provide quantitative performance of our micro-pumps. Concern the spatial actuation, fluid rate and allows optimization of the fabrication process in terms of materials and integration steps.

Keywords: COMSOL software, piezoelectric, micro-pump, microfluidic

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Authors: Hitham Yami

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This study will focus primarily on assessing the availability requirements of the electronic management of oil companies in Libya, and the mean objectives of the research applying electronic management and make recommendations and steps to approach electronic management. There are limited research and statistical analysis to support electronic management in Libyan companies. The groundwork for the proposed approach is to develop independent variables and the dependent variables to be restructured after it Alntra side of the field and the side to get the data to achieve the desired results and solving the problem faced by the Libyan Oil Corporation. All these strategies are proposed to achieve the goal, and solving Libyan oil installations.

Keywords: oil company’s revenue, independent variables, electronic management, Libyan oil corporation

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Authors: Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Nafisa Lira Huq, Afroza Khanom, Rafiqul Islam, Abdullah Nurus Salam Khan, Farhana Karim, Nabila Zaka, Shams El Arifeen, Sk. Masum Billah

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After having astounding achievements in reducing maternal mortality and achieving the target for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, the Government of Bangladesh has set new target to reduce Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 70 per 100,000 live births aligning with targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Aversion of deaths from maternal complication by ensuring quality health care could be an important path to accelerate the rate of reduction of MMR. This formative research was aimed at exploring the provision of quality maternal health services at different level of health facilities. The study was conducted in 1 district hospital (DH) and 4 Upazila health complexes (UHC) of Kurigram district of Bangladesh, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative research methods. We conducted 14 key informant interviews with facility managers and 20 in-depth interviews with health care providers and support staff. Besides, we observed 387 normal deliveries from which we found 17 cases of post partum haemorrhage (PPH) and 2 cases of eclampsia during the data collection period extended from July-September 2016. The quantitative data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and the qualitative component underwent thematic analysis with the broad themes of facility readiness for maternal complication management, and management of complications. Inadequacy in human resources has been identified as the most important bottleneck to provide quality care to manage maternal complications. The DH had a particular paucity of human resources in medical officer cadre where about 61% posts were unfilled. On the other hand, in the UHCs the positions mostly empty were obstetricians (75%, paediatricians (75%), staff nurses (65%), and anaesthetists (100%). The workload on the existing staff is increased because of the persistence of vacant posts. Unavailability of anesthetists and consultants does not permit the health care providers (HCP) of lower cadres to perform emergency operative procedures and forces them to refer the patients although referral system is not well organized in rural Bangladesh. Insufficient bed capacity, inadequate training, shortage of emergency medicines etc. are other hindrance factors for facility readiness. Among the 387 observed delivery case, 17 (4.4%) were identified as PPH cases, and only 2 cases were found as eclampsia/pre-eclampsia. The majority of the patients were treated with uterine message (16 out of 17, 94.1%) and injectable Oxytocin (14 out of 17, 82.4%). The providers of DH mentioned that they can manage the PPH because of having provision for diagnostic and blood transfusion services, although not as 24/7 services. Regarding management of eclampsia/pre-eclampsia, HCPs provided Diazepam, MgSO4, and other anti-hypertensives. The UHCs did not have MgSO4 at stock even, and one facility manager admitted that they treat eclampsia with Diazepam only. The nurses of the UHCs were found to be afraid to handle eclampsia cases. The upcoming interventions must ensure refresher training of service providers, continuous availability of essential medicine and equipment needed for complication management, availability of skilled health workforce, availability of functioning blood transfusion unit and pairing of consultants and anaesthetists to reach the newly set targets altogether.

Keywords: Bangladesh, health facilities, maternal complications, quality of care

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Authors: R. Ananthanarayanan, S. B. Nakula, D. R. Seenivasagam, J. Naua, B. Sharma

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Product packaging is a critical component of production, trade, and marketing, playing numerous vital roles that often go unnoticed by consumers. Packaging is essential for maintaining the shelf life, quality assurance, and safety of both manufactured and agricultural products. For example, harvested produce or processed foods can quickly lose quality and freshness, making secure packaging crucial for preservation and safety throughout the food supply chain. In Fiji, agricultural packaging has primarily been managed by local companies for international trade, with gradual advancements in these practices. To further enhance the industry’s performance, this study examines the challenges and constraints hindering the optimization of agricultural packaging practices in Fiji. The study utilizes Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tools, specifically Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC). ISM analyzes the hierarchical structure of barriers, categorizing them from the least to the most influential, while MICMAC classifies barriers based on their driving and dependence power. This approach helps identify the interrelationships between barriers, providing valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers to propose innovative solutions for sustainable development in the agricultural packaging sector, ultimately shaping the future of packaging practices in Fiji.

Keywords: agricultural packaging, barriers, ISM, MICMAC

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Authors: Shu Tao

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Based on a global fuel consumption data product (PKU-FUEL-2007) compiled recently and a series of databases for emission factors of various sources, global emission inventories of a number of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, including CO2, CO, SO2, NOx, primary particulate matter (total, PM 10, and PM 2.5), black carbon, organic carbon, mercury, volatile organic carbons, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from combustion sources have been developed. The inventories feather high spatial and sectorial resolutions. The spatial resolution of the inventories are 0.1 by 0.1 degree, based on a sub-national disaggregation approach to reduce spatial bias due to uneven distribution of per person fuel consumption within countries. The finely resolved inventories provide critical information for chemical transport modeling and exposure modeling. Emissions from more than 60 sources in energy, industry, agriculture, residential, transportation, and wildfire sectors were quantified in this study. With the detailed sectorial information, the inventories become an important tool for policy makers. For residential sector, a set of models were developed to simulate temporal variation of fuel consumption, consequently pollutant emissions. The models can be used to characterize seasonal as well as inter-annual variations in the emissions in history and to predict future changes. The models can even be used to quantify net change of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions due to climate change. The inventories has been used for model ambient air quality, population exposure, and even health effects. A few examples of the applications are discussed.

Keywords: air pollutants, combustion, emission inventory, sectorial information

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Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

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We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

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Authors: Sergio Zabala-Vargas, Miguel Jiménez-Barrera, Luz VArgas-Sánchez

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In recent years, information related to project management in organizations has been increasing exponentially. Performance data, management statistics, indicator results have forced the collection, analysis, traceability, and dissemination of project managers to be essential. In this sense, there are current trends to facilitate efficient decision-making in emerging technology projects, such as: Machine Learning, Data Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data. The latter is the most interesting in this project. This research is part of the thematic line Construction methods and project management. Many authors present the relevance that the use of emerging technologies, such as Big Data, has taken in recent years in project management in the construction sector. The main focus is the optimization of time, scope, budget, and in general mitigating risks. This research was developed in the northeastern region of Colombia-South America. The first phase was aimed at diagnosing the use of emerging technologies (Big-Data) in the construction sector. In Colombia, the construction sector represents more than 50% of the productive system, and more than 2 million people participate in this economic segment. The quantitative approach was used. A survey was applied to a sample of 91 companies in the construction sector. Preliminary results indicate that the use of Big Data and other emerging technologies is very low and also that there is interest in modernizing project management. There is evidence of a correlation between the interest in using new data management technologies and the incorporation of Building Information Modeling BIM. The next phase of the research will allow the generation of guidelines and strategies for the incorporation of technological tools in the construction sector in Colombia.

Keywords: big data, building information modeling, tecnology, project manamegent

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Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

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The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications

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Authors: Violina Angelova, Krasimir Ivanov, Stefan Krustev, Dimitar Dimitrov

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Availability of a metal is characterised by its quantity transgressing from soil into different extractants or by its content in plants. In literature, the terms 'available forms of compounds' and 'mobile' are often considered as equivalents of the term 'accessible' to plants. Rapid and a sufficiently reliable method for defining the accessible for plants forms turns out to be their extraction through different extractants, imitating the functioning of the root system. As a criterion for the pertinence of the extractant to this purpose usually serves the significant statistic correlation between the extracted quantities of the element from soil and its content in plants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effectiveness of various extractions (DTPA-TEA, AB-DTPA, Mehlich 3, 0.01 M CaCl₂, 1M NH₄NO₃) for the determination of bioavailability of heavy metals in industrially polluted soils from the metallurgical activity near Plovdiv and Kardjali, Bulgaria. Quantity measurements for contents of heavy metals were performed with ICP-OES. The results showed that extraction capacity was as follows: Mehlich 3>ABDTPA>DTPA-TEA>CaCl₂>NaNO₃. The content of the mobile form of heavy metals depends on the nature of metal ion, the nature of extractant and pH. The obtained results show that CaCl₂ extracts a greater quantity of mobile forms of heavy metals than NH₄NO₃. DTPA-TEA and AB-DTPA are capable of extracting from the soil not only the heavy metals participating in the exchange processes but also the heavy metals bound in carbonates and organic complexes, as well as bound and occluded in oxide and secondary clay minerals. AB-DTPA extracts a bit more heavy metals than DTPA-TEA. The darker color of the solutions obtained with AB-DTPA indicates that considerable quantities organic matter are being destructed. A comparison of the mobile forms of heavy metals extracted from clean and highly polluted soils has revealed that in the polluted soils the greater portion of heavy metals exists in a mobile form. High correlation coefficients are obtained between the metals extracted with different extractants and their total content in soil (r=0.9). A positive correlation between the pH, soil organic matter and the extracted quantities of heavy metals has been found. The results of correlation analysis revealed that the heavy metals extracted by DTPA-TEA, AB-DTPA, Mehlich 3, CaCl₂ and NaNO₃ correlated significantly with plant uptake. Significant correlation was found between DTPA-TEA, AB-DTPA, and CaCl₂ with heavy metals concentration in plants. Application of extracting methods contains chelating agents would be recommended in the future research onthe availabilityof heavy metals in polluted soils.

Keywords: availability, chemical extractants, heavy metals, mobile forms

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Authors: Pyi Phyo Maung

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In the study, the calculations of the permeability coefficient, values of the volume and porosity of a unit cell of a woven fabric before and after deformation based on the geometrical parameters are presented. Two types of carbon woven fabric structures were investigated: standard type, which integrated the filament, has a cross sectional shape of a cylinder and spread tow type, which has a rectangular cross sectional shape. The space antennas reflector, which distinctive feature is the presence of the surface of double curvature, is considered as the object of the research. Modeling of the kinetics of the process of impregnation of the reflector for the two types of carbon fabric’s unit cell structures was performed using software RAM-RTM. This work also investigated the influence of the grid angle between warp and welt of the unit cell on the duration of impregnation process. The results showed that decreasing the angle between warp and welt of the unit cell, the decreasing of the permeability values were occurred. Based on the results of calculation samples of the reflectors, their quality was determined. The comparisons of the theoretical and experimental results have been carried out. Comparison of the two textile structures (standard and spread tow) showed that the standard textiles with circular cross section were impregnated faster than spread tows, which have a rectangular cross section.

Keywords: vacuum assistant resin infusion, impregnation time, shear angle, reflector and modeling

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Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

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Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Hyang Lim, Sungwon Choi

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Many previous studies in area of adolescents' depression have used a longitudinal design. The previous studies have found that the developmental trajectory of them is only one. But it needs to be examined whether the trajectory is applied to all adolescents. Some factors in their home and/or school have an effect on adolescents' depression and more likely to be specific groups. The present study was a longitudinal study aimed to identify the trajectories and to explore the predictors of adolescents' depression. The study used Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) data. In this study, 2,351 second and third-year of middle school and first of high school students' data was analyzed by using semi-parametric group modeling (SGM). There were 5 trajectory groups for adolescents; low depressed stables, low depressed risers, moderately depressed decreases, moderately depressed stables, severe depressed decreases. The predictors of adolescents' depression were parental abuse, parental neglect, annual family income, parental academic background, friendship at school, and teacher-student relationship at school. All predictors had the significant difference across trajectory group profile for adolescents. The findings of the present study recommend to promote the socioeconomic status and to train social skill for the interpersonal relationship at the home and school. And the results suggest that the proper prevention programs for each group in the middle adolescents that target selected factors may be helpful in reducing the level of depression.

Keywords: adolescent, depression, KCYPS, school life, semi-parametric group-based modeling

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Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: Yadavalli Venkata Sridhar

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Finalization of Substation sizing and location is an important task to be carried out by electrical designers in an oil field. Practical issues influence the selection of size and location of the source substations that feed multiple production facilities are listed. Importance of selection of appropriately rated short circuit level for 11KV switchboards and constraints pertaining to availability of manufacturers are highlighted. Without being lost in the research of absolute optimum solution, under time constraints, the importance of practical approach is brought out. Focus on identifying near optimum solutions by process of elimination of unfeasible substation locations with the support of cost figures, is emphasized through a case study.

Keywords: substation, size, location, oil field

Procedia PDF Downloads 664

Authors: B. Vadiraj, S. N. Omkar, B. Kapil Bharadwaj, Yash Vardhan Gupta

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During manned exploration of space, missions will require astronaut crewmembers to perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) for a variety of tasks. These EVAs take place after long periods of operations in space, and in and around unique vehicles, space structures and systems. Considering the remoteness and time spans in which these vehicles will operate, EVA system operations should utilize common worksites, tools and procedures as much as possible to increase the efficiency of training and proficiency in operations. All of the preparations need to be carried out based on studies of astronaut motions. Until now, development and training activities associated with the planned EVAs in Russian and U.S. space programs have relied almost exclusively on physical simulators. These experimental tests are expensive and time consuming. During the past few years a strong increase has been observed in the use of computer simulations due to the fast developments in computer hardware and simulation software. Based on this idea, an effort to develop a computational simulation system to model human dynamic motion for EVA is initiated. This study focuses on the simulation of an astronaut moving the orbital replaceable units into the worksites or removing them from the worksites. Our physics-based methodology helps fill the gap in quantitative analysis of astronaut EVA by providing a multisegment human arm model. Simulation work described in the study improves on the realism of previous efforts, incorporating joint stops to account for the physiological limits of range of motion. To demonstrate the utility of this approach human arm model is simulated virtually using ADAMS/LifeMOD® software. Kinematic mechanism for the astronaut’s task is studied from joint angles and torques. Simulation results obtained is validated with numerical simulation based on the principles of Newton-Euler method. Torques determined using mathematical model are compared among the subjects to know the grace and consistency of the task performed. We conclude that due to uncertain nature of exploration-class EVA, a virtual model developed using multibody dynamics approach offers significant advantages over traditional human modeling approaches.

Keywords: extra vehicular activity, biomechanics, inverse kinematics, human body modeling

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

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Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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