Search results for: Random Field Ising Model

Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek Maraseni

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This study modelled the relationships between vegetation response and available water below the soil surface using the Terra’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) generated Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and soil water content (SWC) data. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interface known as ArcSWAT was used in ArcGIS for the groundwater analysis. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in SWAT-CUP software using 10 years (2001-2010) of monthly streamflow data. The average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency during the calibration and validation was 0.54 and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model performances were good. Twenty years (2001-2020) of monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) and soil water content for 43 sub-basins were analysed using the WEKA, machine learning tool with a selection of two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The modelling results show that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet season. For example, the model generated high positive relationships (r=0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between the measured and predicted NDVI values of all vegetation in the study area against the groundwater flow (GW), soil water content (SWC), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these relationships were reduced by 36.8% (r=0.48) and 13.6% (r=0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. On the other hand, the model predicted a moderate positive relationship (r=0.63) between shrub vegetation type and soil water content during the dry season, which was reduced by 31.7% (r=0.43) during the wet season. Our models also predicted that vegetation in the top location (upper part) of the sub-basin is highly responsive to GW and SWC (r=0.78, and 0.70) during the dry season. The results of this study indicate the study region is suitable for seasonal crop production in dry season. Moreover, the results predicted that the growth of vegetation in the top-point location is highly dependent on groundwater flow in both dry and wet seasons, and any instability or long-term drought can negatively affect these floodplain vegetation communities. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Ali Akbar, Seungho Shin, Sukkee Um

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The composition of catalyst layers (CLs) plays an important role in the overall performance and cost of the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). Low platinum loading, high utilization, and more durable catalyst still remain as critical challenges for PEMFCs. In this study, a three-dimensional material network model is developed to visualize the nanostructure of carbon supported platinum Pt/C and Pt/VACNT catalysts in pursuance of maximizing the catalyst utilization. The quadruple-phase randomly generated CLs domain is formulated using quasi-random stochastic Monte Carlo-based method. This unique statistical approach of four-phase (i.e., pore, ionomer, carbon, and platinum) model is closely mimic of manufacturing process of CLs. Various CLs compositions are simulated to elucidate the effect of electrons, ions, and mass transport paths on the catalyst utilization factor. Based on simulation results, the effect of key factors such as porosity, ionomer contents and Pt weight percentage in Pt/C catalyst have been investigated at the represented elementary volume (REV) scale. The results show that the relationship between ionomer content and Pt utilization is in good agreement with existing experimental calculations. Furthermore, this model is implemented on the state-of-the-art Pt/VACNT CLs. The simulation results on Pt/VACNT based CLs show exceptionally high catalyst utilization as compared to Pt/C with different composition ratios. More importantly, this study reveals that the maximum catalyst utilization depends on the distance spacing between the carbon nanotubes for Pt/VACNT. The current simulation results are expected to be utilized in the optimization of nano-structural construction and composition of Pt/C and Pt/VACNT CLs.

Keywords: catalyst layer, platinum utilization, proton exchange membrane fuel cell, stochastic modeling

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Authors: Ramon Santana

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The use of biometric identifiers in the field of information security, access control to resources, authentication in ATMs and banking among others, are of great concern because of the safety of biometric data. In the general architecture of a biometric system have been detected eight vulnerabilities, six of them allow obtaining minutiae template in plain text. The main consequence of obtaining minutia templates is the loss of biometric identifier for life. To mitigate these vulnerabilities several models to protect minutiae templates have been proposed. Several vulnerabilities in the cryptographic security of these models allow to obtain biometric data in plain text. In order to increase the cryptographic security and ease of reversibility, a minutiae templates protection model is proposed. The model aims to make the cryptographic protection and facilitate the reversibility of data using two levels of security. The first level of security is the data transformation level. In this level generates invariant data to rotation and translation, further transformation is irreversible. The second level of security is the evaluation level, where the encryption key is generated and data is evaluated using a defined evaluation function. The model is aimed at mitigating known vulnerabilities of the proposed models, basing its security on the impossibility of the polynomial reconstruction.

Keywords: fingerprint, template protection, bio-cryptography, minutiae protection

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Authors: Musa Auwal Mamman, S. G. Isa

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This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of GeoGebra software in teaching and learning of linear and quadratic equations amongst senior secondary school students in Fagge Local Government Area, Kano State–Nigeria. Five research items were raised in objectives, research questions and hypotheses respectively. A random sampling method was used in selecting 398 students from a population of 2098 of SS2 students. The experimental group was taught using the GeoGebra software while the control group was taught using the conventional teaching method. The instrument used for the study was the mathematics performance test (MPT) which was administered at the beginning and at the end of the study. The results of the study revealed that students taught with GeoGebra software (experimental group) performed better than students taught with traditional teaching method. The t- test was used to analyze the data obtained from the study.

Keywords: GeoGebra Software, mathematics performance, random sampling, mathematics teaching

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Stanley Ibuchukwu Onwukwe

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Most reservoir in mature oil fields are vulnerable to challenges of water and/or gas coning as the size of their oil column reduces due to long period of oil production. These often result to low oil production and excessive water and/or gas production. Since over 50 years of oil production in the Niger delta, it is apparent that most of the oil fields in the region have reached their mature stages, thereby susceptible to coning tendencies. As a result of these, a good number of wells have been shut-in and abandoned, with significant amount of oil left unproduced. Analysis of the movement of fluid contacts in the reservoir is a significant aspect of reservoir studies and can assist in the management of coning tendencies and production performance of reservoirs in a mature field. This study, therefore, seeks to evaluate the occurrence of coning through the movement of fluid contacts (GOC and OWC) and determine the critical rate for controlling coning tendencies in mature oil field. This study applies the principle of Nodal analysis to calibrate the thin oil column of a reservoir of a mature field, and was graphically evaluated using the Joshi’s equation of critical rate for gas-oil system and oil-water system respectively. A representative Proxy equation was developed and sensitivity analysis carried out to determine the trend of critical rate as the oil column is been depleted. The result shows the trend in the movement of the GOC and OWC, and the critical rate, beyond which will result in excessive water and gas production, resulting to decreasing oil production from the reservoir. This result of this study can be used as a first pass assessment in the development of mature oil field reservoirs anticipated to experience water and/or gas coning during production.

Keywords: coning, fluid contact movement, mature oil field, oil production

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Authors: Zhan Dong, Qiu Jianrong, Li Qinghui, Zhang Lei

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The quantity and quality of the papers published on sport science from 2001 to 2013 had been counted and analysed and compared with the papers published on the journal from 1990 to 2000. The result showed that: 1. In the sports medicine field, the proportion of basic/application was abnormal. Basic research was far more than the application research. The papers on researching of imitating altitude training was the main part. Gene research made great progress.The research on sport injury and medical supervision were lower and lower. Research on sports prescription had made much progress, especially in the patients of heart infarction. 2. In building up people’s health field, the research on the old people had been more and more compared with the 10 years before, but it was not enough. 3. In the field of sports psychology, the research on disable people had been more compared with the 10 years before. Solved the problem of the sportmen before the game. 4. In the field of sports biomechanics, it showed that methods had made great progress compared with the 10 years before. Sport biomechanics combined with sports medicine, helped the sportsmen in good condition in the game. 5. In the exercise training field, the experts pay more attention to the outstanding sportsmen, and the researches emphasized that biology knowledge is the main basic for them to the research.

Keywords: sport medicine, sport injury, medical supervision

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Authors: Jackeline Kafie-Martinez, Peter B. Keating

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A three-dimensional finite element model is developed to capture the stress field generated in connected plates during the installation of hot-driven rivets. Clamping stress is generated when a steel rivet heated to approximately 1000 °C comes in contact with the material to be fastened at ambient temperature. As the rivet cools, thermal contraction subjects the rivet into tensile stress, while the material being fastened is subjected to compressive stress. Model characteristics and assumptions, as well as steel properties variation with respect to temperature are discussed. The thermal stresses developed around the rivet hole are assessed and reported. Results from the analysis are utilized to detect possible regions for fatigue crack propagation under cyclic loads.

Keywords: clamping stress, fatigue, finite elements, rivet, riveted railroad bridges

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Hanan Farag

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Cost minimization of Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem becomes a critical issue in the field of transportation because it is NP-hard optimization problem and the search space is complex. Many researches use the hybridization of artificial intelligence (AI) models to solve this problem; however, it can not guarantee to reach the best solution due to the difficulty of searching the whole search space. To overcome this problem, we introduce the hybrid model of Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) with a passive congregation which enable searching the whole search space to compromise between both local and global search. The practical experiment shows that our model obviously outperforms other hybrid models in cost minimization.

Keywords: cost minimization, multi-vehicle routing problem, passive congregation, discrete swarm, passive congregation

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Authors: Ahmad Taghinia, Negar Gholamishaker

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GaAs (gallium arsenide) solar cells have gained significant attention for their use in space applications. These solar cells have the potential for efficient energy conversion and are being explored as potential power sources for electronic devices, satellites, and telecommunication equipment. In this study, the aim is to investigate the effect of adding a window layer and a back surface field (BSF) layer made of InₓGa₍₁₋ₓ₎P material to a GaAs single junction solar cell. In this paper, we first obtain the important electrical parameters of a single-junction GaAs solar cell by utilizing a two-dimensional simulator software for virtual investigation of the solar cell; then, we analyze the impact of adding a window layer and a back surface field layer made of InₓGa₍₁₋ₓ₎P on the solar cell. The results show that the incorporation of these layers led to enhancements in Jsc, Voc, FF, and the overall efficiency of the solar cell.

Keywords: back surface field layer, solar cell, GaAs, InₓGa₍₁₋ₓ₎P, window layer

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Authors: R. Tudugala, B. M. A. I. Balasooriya, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, R. W. M. W. K. Rathnayake, T. D. Premaratna

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Brachytherapy involves placing a source of radiation near the cancer site which gives promising prognosis for cervical cancer treatments. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of random variation of treated volumes in between fractions in the 2D image based fractionated high dose rate brachytherapy for cervical cancer at National Cancer Institute Maharagama, Sri Lanka. Dose plans were analyzed for 150 cervical cancer patients with orthogonal radiographs (2D) based brachytherapy. ICRU treated volumes was modeled by translating the applicators with the help of “Multisource HDR plus software”. The difference of treated volumes with respect to the applicator geometry was analyzed by using SPSS 18 software; to derived patient population based estimates of delivered treated volumes relative to ideally treated volumes. Packing was evaluated according to bladder dose, rectum dose and geometry of the dose distribution by three consultant radiation oncologist. The difference of treated volumes depends on types of the applicators, which was used in fractionated brachytherapy. The means of the “Difference of Treated Volume” (DTV) for “Evenly activated tandem (ET)” length” group was ((X_1)) -0.48 cm3 and ((X_2)) 11.85 cm3 for “Unevenly activated tandem length (UET) group. The range of the DTV for ET group was 35.80 cm3 whereas UET group 104.80 cm3. One sample T test was performed to compare the DTV with “Ideal treatment volume difference (0.00cm3)”. It is evident that P value was 0.732 for ET group and for UET it was 0.00 moreover independent two sample T test was performed to compare ET and UET groups and calculated P value was 0.005. Packing was evaluated under three categories 59.38% used “Convenient Packing Technique”, 33.33% used “Fairly Packing Technique” and 7.29% used “Not Convenient Packing” in their fractionated brachytherapy treatments. Random variation of treated volume in ET group is much lower than UET group and there is a significant difference (p<0.05) in between ET and UET groups which affects the dose distribution of the treatment. Furthermore, it can be concluded nearly 92.71% patient’s packing were used acceptable packing technique at NCIM, Sri Lanka.

Keywords: brachytherapy, cervical cancer, high dose rate, tandem, treated volumes

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Authors: Vidishaa Jali, Amit Sinha, Kameshwar Prasad

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Background and Objective: Cerebral microbleeds are frequently found in healthy elderly individuals. We performed a meta- analysis to determine the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in apparently healthy, elderly population and to determine the effect of age, smoking and hypertension on the occurrence of cerebral microbleeds. Methods: Relevant literature was searched using electronic databases such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Cochrane database, Google scholar to identify studies on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds in general elderly population till March 2016. STATA version 13 software was used for analysis. Fixed effect model was used if heterogeneity was less than 50%. Otherwise, random effect model was used. Meta- regression analysis was performed to check any effect of important variables such as age, smoking, hypertension. Selection Criteria: We included cross-sectional studies performed in apparently healthy elderly population, who had age more than 50 years. Results: The pooled proportion of cerebral microbleeds in healthy population is 12% (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.13). No significant effect of age was found on the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds (p= 0.99). A linear relationship between increase in hypertension and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was not statistically significant (p=0.16). Similarly, A linear relationship between increase in smoking and the prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was found, however, this linear relationship was also not statistically significant (p=0.21). Conclusion: Presence of cerebral microbleeds is evident in apparently healthy, elderly population, in more than 10% of individuals.

Keywords: apparently healthy, elderly, prevalence, cerebral microbleeds

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Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

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This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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Authors: Yohei Saika

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On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, multiple interferograms, statistical mechanics

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Authors: Parinyaporn Thanaboonpuang, Siridej Sujiva, Shotiga Pasiphul

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The higher education reform that integration of nursing programmes into the higher education system. Learning outcomes represent one of the essential building blocks for transparency within higher education systems and qualifications. The purpose of this study is to develop a toolkit of undergraduate nursing student’desirable characteristics assessment on Thai Qualifications Framework for Higher education and to test psychometric property for this instrument. This toolkit seeks to improve on the Computer Multimedia test. There are three skills to be examined: Cognitive skill, Responsibility and Interpersonal Skill, and Information Technology Skill. The study was conduct in 4 phases. In Phase 1. Based on developed a measurement model and Computer Multimedia test. Phase 2 two round focus group were conducted, to determine the content validity of measurement model and the toolkit. In Phase 3, data were collected using a multistage random sampling of 1,156 senior undergraduate nursing student were recruited to test psychometric property. In Phase 4 data analysis was conducted by descriptive statistics, item analysis, inter-rater reliability, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. The resulting TNDC consists of 74 items across the following four domains: Cognitive skill, Interpersonal Skill, Responsibility and Information Technology Skill. The value of Cronbach’ s alpha for the four domains were .781, 807, .831, and .865, respectively. The final model in confirmatory factor analysis fit quite well with empirical data. The TNDC was found to be appropriate, both theoretically and statistically. Due to these results, it is recommended that the toolkit could be used in future studies for Nursing Program in Thailand.

Keywords: toolkit, nursing student’ desirable characteristics, Thai qualifications framework

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Authors: Qin Long, Li Xiaoge

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The Knowledge Graphs have now become a new form of knowledge representation. However, there is no consensus in regard to a plausible and definition of entities and relationships in the domain-specific knowledge graph. Further, in conjunction with several limitations and deficiencies, various domain-specific entities and relationships recognition approaches are far from perfect. Specifically, named entity recognition in Chinese domain is a critical task for the natural language process applications. However, a bottleneck problem with Chinese named entity recognition in new domains is the lack of annotated data. To address this challenge, a domain distant supervised named entity recognition framework is proposed. The framework is divided into two stages: first, the distant supervised corpus is generated based on the entity linking model of graph attention neural network; secondly, the generated corpus is trained as the input of the distant supervised named entity recognition model to train to obtain named entities. The link model is verified in the ccks2019 entity link corpus, and the F1 value is 2% higher than that of the benchmark method. The re-pre-trained BERT language model is added to the benchmark method, and the results show that it is more suitable for distant supervised named entity recognition tasks. Finally, it is applied in the computer field, and the results show that this framework can obtain domain named entities.

Keywords: distant named entity recognition, entity linking, knowledge graph, graph attention neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Ouabel Habib, Taleb Mohamed Lamine, Ben Zohra Mohamed Nadjib

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The Tissemsilt Province occupies a natural transitional zone and is dedicated to cereal production, dry forage, and livestock farming. It encompasses an agricultural domain covering an area of 181,097 hectares, of which 143,451 hectares are considered arable land. A field study was conducted along a west-to-east transect, covering six zones within the province, including Maacem, Ammari, Tissemsilt, Khemisti, Laayoune, Theniet el Had, and Taza. Random soil samples were collected from each region for laboratory analyses to assess soil types and quality, ultimately aiming to identify soil diversity within the Tissemsilt Province. Within the agricultural zones, approximately 40 soil samples were collected, revealing that the province contains moderately high-quality clayey soils, semi-rich in organic matter. However, as one moves southward, this richness diminishes. This leads us to predict that the agricultural zone is an ideal region for cereal cultivation. Nonetheless, this situation is challenged by the decreasing precipitation, which affects overall yields.

Keywords: soil, biodiversity, semi-arid, agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Xuguang Leng

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The crater pattern on the Moon indicates the Moon was captured by Earth in the more recent years, disproves the theory that the Moon was born as a satellite to the Earth. The Moon was tidal locked since it became the satellite of the Earth. Moon’s near side is shielded by Earth from asteroid/comet collisions, with the center of the near side most protected. Yet the crater pattern on the Moon is fairly random, with no distinguishable empty spot/strip, no distinguishable difference near side vs. far side. Were the Moon born as Earth’s satellite, there would be a clear crater free spot, or strip should the tial lock shifts over time, on the near side; and far more craters on the far side. The nonexistence of even a vague crater free spot on the near side of the Moon indicates the capture was a more recent event. Given Earth’s much larger mass and sphere size over the Moon, Earth should have collided with asteroids and comets in much higher frequency, resulting in significant mass gain over the lifespan. Earth’s larger mass and magnetic field are better at retaining water and gas from solar wind’s stripping effect, thus accelerating the mass gain. A dwarf planet Moon can be pulled closer and closer to the Earth over time as Earth’s gravity grows stronger, eventually being captured as a satellite. Given enough time, it is possible Earth’s mass would be large enough to cause the Moon to collide with Earth.

Keywords: moon, origin, crater, pattern

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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Authors: Kechnit Djamel, Ammarri Abdelhadi, Raphael Tshimang, Mark Trrig

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One of the most important aspects of monitoring rivers is navigation. The variation of discharge in the river generally produces a change in available draft for a vessel, particularly in the low flow season, which can impact the navigable water path, especially when the water depth is less than the normal one, which allows safe navigation for boats. The water depth is related to the bathymetry of the channel as well as the discharge. For a seasonal update of the navigation maps, a daily discharge value is required. Many novel approaches based on earth observation and remote sensing have been investigated for large rivers. However, it should be noted that most of these approaches are not currently able to directly estimate river discharge. This paper discusses the application of remote sensing tools using the analysis of the reflectance value of MODIS imagery and is combined with field measurements for the estimation of discharge. This approach is applied in the lower reach of the Congo River (Pool Malebo) for the period between 2019 and 2021. The correlation obtained between the observed discharge observed in the gauging station and the reflectance ratio time series is 0.81. In this context, a Discharge Reflectance Model (DRM) was developed to express discharge as a function of reflectance. This model introduces a non-contact method that allows discharge monitoring using earth observation. DRM was validated by field measurements using ADCP, in different sections on the Pool Malebo, over two different periods (dry and wet seasons), as well as by the observed discharge in the gauging station. The observed error between the estimated and measured discharge values ranges from 1 to 8% for the ADCP and from (1% to 11%) for the gauging station. The study of the uncertainties will give us the possibility to judge the robustness of the DRM.

Keywords: discharge monitoring, navigation, MODIS, empiric, ADCP, Congo River

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Authors: Xulu Yao, Moi Hoon Yap, Yanlong Zhang

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As a branch of artificial neural network, deep learning is widely used in the field of image recognition, but the lack of its dataset leads to imperfect model learning. By analysing the data scale requirements of deep learning and aiming at the application in GUI generation, it is found that the collection of GUI dataset is a time-consuming and labor-consuming project, which is difficult to meet the needs of current deep learning network. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a semi-supervised deep learning model that relies on the original small-scale datasets to produce a large number of reliable data sets. By combining the cyclic neural network with the generated countermeasure network, the cyclic neural network can learn the sequence relationship and characteristics of data, make the generated countermeasure network generate reasonable data, and then expand the Rico dataset. Relying on the network structure, the characteristics of collected data can be well analysed, and a large number of reasonable data can be generated according to these characteristics. After data processing, a reliable dataset for model training can be formed, which alleviates the problem of dataset shortage in deep learning.

Keywords: GUI, deep learning, GAN, data augmentation

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Authors: Harpreet Kaur, Er. Arjun, Kirandeep Kaur, P. K. Mittal

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Simulation of a human body from a 20% gelatin & 80% water mixture is examined from a wound ballistics point of view. Parameters such as incapacitation energy & temporary to permanent cavity size & tools of hydrodynamics have been employed to arrive at a model of the human body similar to the one adopted by NATO. Calculations using equations of motion yield a value of 339 µs in which a temporary cavity with maximum size settles down to a permanent cavity. This occurs for 10mm size bullets & settles down to a permanent cavity in the case of 4 different bullets, i.e., 5.45, 5.56, 7.62,10 mm sizes. The obtained results are in excellent agreement with the body as a right circular cylinder of 15 cm height & 10 cm diameter. An effort is made here in this work to present a sound theoretical base to parameters commonly used in wound ballistics from field experience discussed by Col Coats & Major Beyer.

Keywords: gelatine, gunshot, hydrodynamic model, oscillation time, temporary and permanent cavity, wound ballistics

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Authors: Babagana Abubakar, Alhaji Kuya

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Although the field of Space weather science is a young field among the space sciences, but yet history has it that activities related to this science began since the year 1859 when the great solar storm happened which resulted in the disruptions of telegraphs operations around the World at that particular time subsequently making it possible for the scientist Richard Carrington to be able to connect the Solar flare observed a day earlier before the great storm and the great deflection of the Earth’s Magnetic field (geometric storm) simultaneous with the telegraph disruption. However years later as at today with the advent of and the coming into existence of the Explorer 1, the Luna 1 and the establishments of the United States International Space Weather Program, International Geophysical Year (IGY) as well as the International Center for Space Weather Sciences and Education (ICSWSE) have made us understand the Space weather better and enable us well define the field of Space weather science. Despite the successes recorded in the development of Space sciences as a whole over the last century and the coming onboard of specialized bodies/programs on space weather like the International Space Weather Program and the ICSWSE, the majority of Africans including institutions, research organizations and even some governments are still ignorant about the existence of theSpace weather science,because apart from some very few countries like South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt among some few others the majority of the African nations and their academic institutions have no knowledge or idea about the existence of this field of Space science (Space weather).

Keywords: Africa, space, weather, education, science

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Anh T. P. Tran, Harald Von Korflesch

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Entrepreneurial intention play a major role in entrepreneurship academia and practice. The spectrum ranges from the first model of the so-called Entrepreneurial Event, then the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Theory of Planned Behavior Entrepreneurial Model, and the Social Cognitive Career Theory to some typical empirical studies with more or less diverse results. However, little is known so far about the intentions of entrepreneurs in the social areas of venture creation. It is surprising that, since social entrepreneurship is an emerging field with growing importance. Currently, all around the world, there is a big challenge with a lot of urgent soaring social and environmental problems such as poor households, people with disabilities, HIV/AIDS infected people, the lonely elderly, or neglected children, some of them even actual in the Western countries. In addition, the already existing literature on entrepreneurial intentions demonstrates a high level of theoretical diversity in general, especially the missing link to the social dimension of entrepreneurship. Seeking to fill the mentioned gaps in the social entrepreneurial intentions literature, this paper proposes a conceptual model of social entrepreneurial intentions based on the Social Cognitive Career Theory with two main factors influencing entrepreneurial intentions namely self-efficacy and outcome expectation. Moreover, motives, goals and plans do not arise from empty nothingness, but are shaped by interacting with the environment. Hence, personalities (i.e., agreeableness, conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, openness) as well as contextual factors (e.g., role models, education, and perceived support) are also considered as the antecedents of social entrepreneurship intentions.

Keywords: entrepreneurial intention, social cognitive career theory, social entrepreneurial intention, social entrepreneurship

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Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

Abstract:

Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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Authors: Castells Pau, Poetsch Christophe

Abstract:

The effect of gust and turbulence encounters on aircraft is a wide field of study which allows different approaches, from high-fidelity multidisciplinary simulations to more simplified models adapted to industrial applications. The typical main goal is to predict the gust loads on the aircraft in order to ensure a safe design and achieve certification. Another topic widely studied is the gust loads reduction through an active control law. The impact of gusts on aircraft handling qualities is of interest as well in the analysis of in-service events so as to evaluate the aircraft response and the performance of the flight control laws. Traditionally, gust loads and handling qualities are addressed separately with different models adapted to the specific needs of each discipline. In this paper, an assessment of the differences between both models is presented and a strategy to better account for the physics of gust encounters in a typical flight dynamics model is proposed based on the model used for gust loads analysis. The applied corrections aim to capture the gust unsteady aerodynamics and propagation as well as the effect of dynamic flexibility at low frequencies. Results from the gust loads model at different flight conditions and measures from real events are used for validation. An assessment of a possible extension of steady aerodynamic nonlinearities to low frequency range is also addressed. The proposed corrections provide meaningful means to evaluate the performance and possible adjustments of the flight control laws.

Keywords: flight dynamics, gust loads, handling qualities, unsteady aerodynamics

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Authors: Khushalini N. Ulman, Samane Maroufi, Veena H. Sahajwalla

Abstract:

Globally, electronic waste (e-waste) continues to grow at an alarming rate. Several technologies have been developed to recover valuable materials from e-waste, however, their efficiency can be increased with a better knowledge of the e-waste components. Random access memory cards (RAMs) are considered as high value scrap for the e-waste recyclers. Despite their high precious metal content, RAMs are still recycled in a conventional manner resulting in huge loss of resources. Our research work highlights the precious metal rich components of a RAM. Inductively coupled plasma (ICP) analysis of RAMs of six different generations have been carried out and the trends in their metal content have been investigated. Over the past decade, the copper content of RAMs has halved and their tin content has increased by 70 %. The stricter environmental laws have facilitated ~96 % drop in the lead content of RAMs. To comprehend the fundamentals of thermal transformation of RAMs, our research provides their detailed kinetic study. This can assist the e-waste recyclers in optimising their metal recovery processes. Thus, understanding the chemical and thermal behaviour of RAMs can open new avenues for efficient e-waste recycling.

Keywords: electronic waste, kinetic study, recycling, thermal transformation

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Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

Abstract:

Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

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