Search results for: environmental risk

Authors: Claire Norman-Maillet

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Insider fraud, otherwise known as occupational, employee, or internal fraud, is a financial crime threat. Perpetrated by defrauding (or attempting to defraud) one’s current, prospective, or past employer, an ‘employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including board members and contractors. The Coronavirus pandemic has forced insider fraud into the spotlight, and it isn’t dimming. As the focus of most academics and practitioners has historically been on that of ‘external fraud’, insider fraud is often overlooked or not considered to be a real threat. However, since COVID-19 changed the working world, pushing most of us into remote or hybrid working, employers cannot easily keep an eye on what their staff are doing, which has led to reliance on trust and transparency. This, therefore, brings about an increased risk of insider fraud perpetration. The objective of this paper is to explore why insider fraud is, therefore, now the biggest threat to a business. To achieve the research objective, participating individuals within the financial crime sector (either as a practitioner or consultants) attended semi-structured interviews with the researcher. The principal recruitment strategy for these individuals was via the researcher’s LinkedIn network. The main findings in the research suggest that insider fraud has been ignored and rejected as a threat to a business, owing to a reluctance to admit that a colleague may perpetrate. A positive of the Coronavirus pandemic is that it has forced insider fraud into a more prominent position and giving it more importance on a business’ agenda and risk register. Despite insider fraud always having been a possibility (and therefore a risk) within any business, it is very rare that a business has given it the attention it requires until now, if at all. The research concludes that insider fraud needs to prioritised by all businesses, and even ahead of external fraud. The research also provides advice on how a business can add new or enhance existing controls to mitigate the risk.

Keywords: insider fraud, occupational fraud, COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus, pandemic, internal fraud, financial crime, economic crime

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Authors: M. Eckert, D. Mendes, J P. Gonçalves, C. Moço, M. Oliveira

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The intensive extraction of natural aggregates leads to both depletion of natural resources and unwanted environmental impacts. On the other hand, uncontrolled disposal of Construction and Demolition Wastes (C&DW) causes the lifetime reduction of landfills. It is known that the European Union produces, each year, about 850 million tons of C&DW. For all the member States of the European Union, one of the milestones to be reached by 2020, according to the Resource Efficiency Roadmap (COM (2011) 571) of the European Commission, is to recycle 70% of the C&DW. In this work, properties of different types of recycled C&DW aggregates and natural aggregates were compared. Assays were performed according to European Standards (EN 13285; EN 13242+A1; EN 12457-4; EN 12620; EN 13139) for the characterization of there: physical, mechanical and chemical properties. Not standardized tests such as water absorption over time, mass stability and post compaction sieve analysis were also carried out. The tested recycled C&DW aggregates were classified according to the requirements of the European Standards regarding there potential use in concrete, mortar, unbound layers of road pavements and embankments. The results of the physical and mechanical properties of recycled C&DW aggregates indicated, in general, lower quality properties when compared to natural aggregates, particularly, for concrete preparation and unbound layers of road pavements. The results of the chemical properties attested that the C&DW aggregates constitute no environmental risk. It was concluded that recycled aggregates produced from C&DW have the potential to be used in many applications.

Keywords: recycled aggregate, sustainability, aggregate properties, European Standard Classification

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Authors: Dike Felix Okechukwu

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Studies and reports from authoritative sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have stated that to effectively solve environmental sustainability challenges such as pollution, inappropriate waste disposal, and unsustainable consumption, there is a need for more research to seek solutions towards environmentally sustainable behavior. However, literature thus far reports only sporadic developments of TL in Environmental Sustainability because there are scarce reports showing the reliable process(es) to produce TL - for sustainability projects or otherwise. Nonetheless, a recently published article demonstrates how TL can be used to help young adults gain transformed mindsets and habits toward environmental sustainability behaviors and practices. This study, however, does not demonstrate, on a repeated basis, the dependability of the method or reliability of the procedures in using its proposed methodology to help young adults achieve transformed habits towards environmental sustainability behaviors, especially in diverse contexts. In this study, it is demonstrated, through repeated measures, a reliable process that can be used to achieve transformations in habits and mindsets toward environmental sustainability behaviors. To achieve this, the design adopted is multiple case studies and a thematic analysis techniques. Five cases in diverse contexts were used to analyze pieces of evidence of Transformative Learning Outcomes toward environmentally sustainable behaviors. Results from the study offer fresh perspectives on a reliable methodology that can be adopted to achieve Transformations in Habits and mindsets toward environmental sustainability behaviors.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, transformative learning, behaviour, learning, education

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Authors: Djeddi Khaled, Houssou Hind, Miloudi Abdelatif, Rabah Siham

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Camels play a vital role as multipurpose animals, providing milk meat and serving as a means of transportation. They serve as a financial reserve for pastoralists and hold significant cultural and social value. Camel milk, known for its exceptional nutritional properties, is considered a valuable substitute for human milk. However, udder infections, particularly mastitis, pose significant challenges to camel farming. Clinical and subclinical mastitis can lead to substantial economic losses. Mastitis, especially the subclinical form, is a persistent and prevalent condition affecting milk hygiene and quality in dairy camels. This review offers insights into the prevalence and risk factors associated with subclinical mastitis in camels. The prevalence of subclinical mastitis in dairy camels was found to range from 9.28% to 87.78%. Major pathogens responsible for camel mastitis include Staphylococcus aureus, Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus, Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, Micrococcus spp, Pasteurella haemolytica and Corynebacterium spp. The study outlines key risk factors contributing to camel mastitis, emphasizing factors such as severe tick infestation, age, stage of lactation, parity, body condition score, skin lesion on the teats or udders, anti-suckling devices, previous history of the udder, conformation of the udder, breed, unhygienic milking practices, production system, amongst others have been reported to be important in the prevalence of subclinical mastitis. This comprehensive overview provides valuable insights into the multifaceted aspects of camel mastitis, encompassing prevalent bacterial pathogens and diverse risk factors. The findings underscore the importance of holistic management practices, emphasizing hygiene, health monitoring, and targeted interventions to ensure the well-being and productivity of camels in various agro-pastoral contexts.

Keywords: bacterial pathogens, camel, mastitis, risk factors

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Marzieh Karimihaghighi, Carlos Castillo

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This work studies how Machine Learning (ML) may be used to increase the effectiveness of a criminal recidivism risk assessment tool, RisCanvi. The two key dimensions of this analysis are predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness. ML-based prediction models obtained in this study are more accurate at predicting criminal recidivism than the manually-created formula used in RisCanvi, achieving an AUC of 0.76 and 0.73 in predicting violent and general recidivism respectively. However, the improvements are small, and it is noticed that algorithmic discrimination can easily be introduced between groups such as national vs foreigner, or young vs old. It is described how effectiveness and algorithmic fairness objectives can be balanced, applying a method in which a single error disparity in terms of generalized false positive rate is minimized, while calibration is maintained across groups. Obtained results show that this bias mitigation procedure can substantially reduce generalized false positive rate disparities across multiple groups. Based on these results, it is proposed that ML-based criminal recidivism risk prediction should not be introduced without applying algorithmic bias mitigation procedures.

Keywords: algorithmic fairness, criminal risk assessment, equalized odds, recidivism

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Authors: Joulié Aurélien, Isabelle Desjardins, Elsa Jourdain, Sophie Pradier, Dufour Philippe, Elodie Rousset, Agnès Leblond

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Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. It may infect a broad range of host species, including horses. Although the role of horses in C. burnetii infections remains unknown, their use as sentinel species may be interesting to better assess the human risk exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess the C. burnetii horse exposition in a French endemic area by describing the antibody dynamics detected in serum; investigating the pathogen circulation in the horse environment, and exploring potential links with unexplained syndromes. Blood samples were collected in 2015 and 2016 on 338 and 294 horses, respectively and analyzed by ELISA. Ticks collected on horses were identified, and C. burnetii DNA detection was performed by qPCR targeting the IS1111 gene. Blood sample analyses revealed a significant increase of the seroprevalence in horses between both years, from 11% [7.67; 14.43] to 25% [20.06; 29.94]. On 36 seropositive horses in 2015 and 73 in 2016, 5 and four respectively showed clinical signs compatible with a C. burnetii infection (i.e., chronic fever or respiratory disorders, unfitness and unexplained weight loss). DNA was detected in almost 40% of ticks (n=59/148 in 2015 and n=103/305 in 2016) and exceptionally in dust samples (n=2/46 in 2015 and n=1/14 in 2016) every year. The C. burnetti detection in both the serum and the environment of horses confirm their exposure to the bacterium. Therefore, consideration should be given to target a relevant sentinel species to better assess the Q fever surveillance depending on the epidemiological context.

Keywords: ELISA, Q fever, qPCR, syndromic surveillance

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Authors: Sara Sousa

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The environmental goods and services have often been neglected in crucial decisions affecting the environment mainly because the difficulty in estimating their economic value, since we are dealing with non-market goods and, thus, without a price associated. Nevertheless, the inexistence of prices does not necessarily mean these goods have no value. The environment is a key element in today's society that seeks to be as sustainable as possible, where the environmental assets have both use and non-use values. To estimate the use value, researchers may apply the revealed preference methods. This paper provides a theoretical review of the main concepts and methodologies on the economic valuation of the environment, with particular emphasis on the revealed preference techniques. Based on a detailed literature review, this study concludes that, despite some inherent limitations, the revealed preference methodologies – travel cost, hedonic price, and averting behaviour – represent essential tools for the researchers who accept the challenge to estimate the use value of environmental goods and services based on the actual individuals` behaviour. The main purpose of this study is to contribute to an increased theoretical information on the economic valuation of environmental assets, allowing researchers and policymakers to improve future decisions regarding the environment.

Keywords: economic valuation, environmental goods, revealed preference methods, total economic value

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Authors: Giovanni Gonzalez Araujo, Michael Kyrilov, Angelo Kyrilov

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STEAMplug is a web-based innovative educational platform which makes teaching easier and learning more effective. It requires no setup, eliminating the barriers to entry, allowing students to focus on their learning throughreal-world development environments. The student-centric tools enable easy collaboration between peers and teachers. Analyzing user interactions with the system enables us to predict student performance and identify at-risk students, allowing early instructor intervention.

Keywords: plagiarism detection, identifying at-Risk Students, education technology, e-learning system, collaborative development, learning and teaching with technology

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Authors: Lloyd A. Taylor

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An increase in the prevalence of Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) highlights the need to consider factors that may be exacerbating symptom presentation. Traditional diagnostic criteria provide a little framework for healthcare providers to consider as they attempt to diagnose and treat children with behavioral problems. In fact, aside from exclusion criteria, limited alternative considerations are available, and approaches fail to consider the impact of outside factors that could increase or decrease the likelihood of appropriate diagnosis and success of interventions. This paper will consider specific systems-based factors that influence behavior and intervention successes that, when not considered, could account for the upsurge of diagnoses. These include understanding (1) challenges in the healthcare system, (2) the influence and impact of educators and the educational system, (3) technology use, and (4) patient and parental attitudes about the diagnosis of ADHD. These factors must be considered both individually and as a whole when considering both the increase in diagnoses and the subsequent increases in prescriptions for psychostimulant medication. A theoretical model based on a risk management approach will be presented. Finally, data will be presented that demonstrates pediatric provider satisfaction with this approach to diagnoses and treatment of ADHD as it relates to practice trends.

Keywords: ADHD, diagnostic criteria, risk management model, pediatricians

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Authors: Kali Prasad Sarma

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Indiscriminate disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) in open dumping site is a common scenario in developing countries like India which poses a risk to the environment as well as human health. The objective of the present investigation was to find out the concentration of heavy metals (Pb, Cr, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Cd) and other physicochemical parameters of leachate and soil collected from an open dumping site of Tezpur town, Assam, India and its associated potential ecological risk. Tezpur is an urban agglomeration coming under the category of Class I UAs/Towns with a population of 105,377 as per data released by Government of India for Census 2011. Impact of the leachate on the groundwater was also addressed in our study. The concentrations of heavy metals were determined using ICP-OES. Energy dispersive X-Ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis was also conducted to see the presence of the studied metals in the soil. X-Ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy were also used to identify dominant minerals present in the soil samples. The trend of measured heavy metals in the soil samples was found in the following order: Mn > Pb > Cu > Zn > Cr > Ni > Cd. The assessment of heavy metal contamination in the soil was carried out by calculating enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), contamination factor (Cfi), degree of contamination (Cd), pollution load index (PLI) and ecological risk factor (Eri). The study showed that the concentrations of Pb, Cu, and Cd were much higher than their respective average shale value and the EF of the soil samples depicted very severe enrichment for Pb, Cu, and Cd; moderate enrichment for Cr and Zn. Calculated Igeo values indicated that the soil is moderate to strongly contaminated with Pb and uncontaminated to moderately contaminated with Cd and Cu. The Cfi value for Pb indicates a very strong contamination level of the metal in the soil. The Cfi values for Cu and Cd were 2.37 and 1.65 respectively indicating moderate contamination level. To apportion the possible sources of heavy metal contamination in soil, principal components analysis (PCA) has been adopted. From the leachate, heavy metals are accumulated at the dumping site soil which could easily percolate through the soil and reach the groundwater. The possible relation of groundwater contamination due to leachate percolation was examined by analyzing the heavy metal concentrations in groundwater with respect to distance from the dumping site. The concentrations of Cd and Pb in groundwater (at a distance of 20m from dumping site) exceeded the permissible limit for drinking water as set by WHO. Occurrence of elevated concentration of potentially toxic heavy metals such as Pb and Cd in groundwater and soil are much environmental concern as it is detrimental to human health and ecosystem.

Keywords: groundwater, heavy metal contamination, leachate, open dumping site

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Authors: Yu-Min Chang, Kuo-Sheng Tsai, Hung-Te Tsai, Chia-Hsin Li

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This paper presents the early-warning lights classification management system for industrial parks promoted by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) since 2011, including the definition of each early-warning light, objectives, action program and accomplishments. All of the 151 industrial parks in Taiwan were classified into four early-warning lights, including red, orange, yellow and green, for carrying out respective pollution management according to the monitoring data of soil and groundwater quality, regulatory compliance, and regulatory listing of control site or remediation site. The Taiwan EPA set up a priority list for high potential polluted industrial parks and investigated their soil and groundwater qualities based on the results of the light classification and pollution potential assessment. In 2011-2013, there were 44 industrial parks selected and carried out different investigation, such as the early warning groundwater well networks establishment and pollution investigation/verification for the red and orange-light industrial parks and the environmental background survey for the yellow-light industrial parks. Among them, 22 industrial parks were newly or continuously confirmed that the concentrations of pollutants exceeded those in soil or groundwater pollution control standards. Thus, the further investigation, groundwater use restriction, listing of pollution control site or remediation site, and pollutant isolation measures were implemented by the local environmental protection and industry competent authorities; the early warning lights of those industrial parks were proposed to adjust up to orange or red-light. Up to the present, the preliminary positive effect of the soil and groundwater quality management system for industrial parks has been noticed in several aspects, such as environmental background information collection, early warning of pollution risk, pollution investigation and control, information integration and application, and inter-agency collaboration. Finally, the work and goal of self-initiated quality management of industrial parks will be carried out on the basis of the inter-agency collaboration by the classified lights system of early warning and management as well as the regular announcement of the status of each industrial park.

Keywords: industrial park, soil and groundwater quality management, early-warning lights classification, SOP for reporting and treatment of monitored abnormal events

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Authors: Eiji Okano, Kazuyuki Inagaki

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We revisit Uribe's `Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk' advocating that there is a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default. We develop a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nominal rigidities and compare two de facto inflation stabilization policies, optimal monetary policy and optimal monetary and fiscal policy with the minimizing interest rate spread policy which completely suppress the default. Under the optimal monetary and fiscal policy, not only the nominal interest rate but also the tax rate work to minimize welfare costs through stabilizing inflation. Under the optimal monetary both inflation and output gap are completely stabilized although those are fluctuating under the optimal monetary policy. In addition, volatility in the default rate under the optimal monetary policy is considerably lower than one under the optimal monetary policy. Thus, there is not the SI-SD trade-off. In addition, while the minimizing interest rate spread policy makes inflation rate severely volatile, the optimal monetary and fiscal policy stabilize both the inflation and the default. A trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default is not so severe what pointed out by Uribe.

Keywords: sovereign risk, optimal monetary policy, fiscal theory of the price level, DSGE

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Hela Ghali, Oumayma Ben Amor, Salwa Khefacha, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Sirine Frigui, Meriam Tourki Dhidah, Lamine Dhidah, Houyem Said Laatiri

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Background: Blood exposure accidents are the most common problem in hospitals that threaten healthcare professionals with a high risk of infectious complications which weighs heavily on health systems worldwide. Paramedics are the highest risk group due to the nature of their daily activities. We aimed to determine knowledge and attitudes about the management of blood-exposure accidents among nurses and technicians in two pediatric departments. Materials/Methods: This is a cross-sectional descriptive study conducted on March 2017, carried out with the care staff of the pediatric ward of the Farhat Hached Teaching Hospital of Sousse and pediatric surgery of the Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital in Monastir, using a pre- tested and self-administered questionnaire. Data entry and analysis were performed using Excel software. Results: The response rate was 85.1%. A female predominance (82.5%) was reported among respondents with a sex ratio of 0.21. 80% of the participants were under 35 years old. Seniority of less than 10 years was found in 77.5% of respondents. Only 22.5% knew the definition of a blood- exposure accident. 100% and 95% of participants reported the relative risk, respectively, to hepatitis and AIDS viruses. However, only 15% recognized the severity factors of a blood-exposure accident. Hygiene compliance was the most important dimension for almost the entire population for the prevention. On the other hand, only 12.5% knew the meaning of 'standard precautions' and ¼ considered them necessary for at-risk patients only. 40% reported being exposed at least once, among them, 87.5% used betadine, and 77.5% said that anti-infectious chemoprophylaxis is necessary regardless of the patient's serological status. However, 52.5% did not know the official reporting circuit of management of blood-exposure accident in their institutions. Conclusion: For better management of risks in hospitals and an improvement of the safety of the care, a reinforcement of the sensibilization of the caregivers with regard to the risks of blood exposure accident is necessary, while developing their knowledge to act in security.

Keywords: attitudes, blood-exposure accident, knowledge, pediatric department

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Authors: Florian Gschösser, Walter Purrer

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The paper shows examples for the (environmental) optimization of production processes for asphalt mixtures applied for typical road pavements in Austria and Switzerland. The conducted “from-cradle-to-gate” LCA firstly analyzes the production one cubic meter of asphalt and secondly all material production processes for exemplary highway pavements applied in Austria and Switzerland. It is shown that environmental impacts can be reduced by the application of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and by the optimization of specific production characteristics, e.g. the reduction of the initial moisture of the mineral aggregate and the reduction of the mixing temperature by the application of low-viscosity and foam bitumen. The results of the LCA study demonstrate reduction potentials per cubic meter asphalt of up to 57 % (Global Warming Potential–GWP) and 77 % (Ozone depletion–ODP). The analysis per square meter of asphalt pavement determined environmental potentials of up to 40 % (GWP) and 56 % (ODP).

Keywords: asphalt mixtures, environmental potentials, life cycle assessment, material production

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Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (AST-to-PLT, APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. Recently, they have found clinical use as measures of liver fibrosis and cardiovascular risk. However, their status in children has not been evaluated in detail yet. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of sixty-eight children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, thirty-five children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised thirty-three OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p<0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r=0.336 and p=0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r=0.707 and p=0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p<0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. Triglycerides are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. Triglycerides are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation versus high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, children, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides

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Authors: Jo Angouri, Charlotte Kennedy, Shawnea Ting, David Rawlinson, Matthew Booker, Nigel Rees

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Ambulance services need to balance the large volume of emergency (999 in the UK) calls they receive (e.g., West Midlands Ambulance Service reports per day about 4,000 999 calls; about 679,000 calls per year are received in Wales), with dispatching limited resource for on-site intervention to the most critical cases. The process by which Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) decisions are made is related to risk assessment and involves the caller and call-taker as well as clinical teams negotiating risk levels on a case-by-case basis. Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS – also referred to as Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System AMPDS) are used in the UK by NHS Trusts (e.,g WAST) to process and prioritise 999 calls. MPDS / AMPDS provide structured protocols for call prioritisation and call management. Protocols/policy frameworks have not been examined before in the way we propose in our project. In more detail, the risk factors that play a role in the EMD negotiation between the caller and call-taker have been analysed in both medical and social science research. Research has focused on the structural, morphological and phonological aspects that could improve, and train, human-to-human interaction or automate risk detection, as well as the medical factors that need to be captured from the caller to inform the dispatch decision. There are two significant gaps in our knowledge that we address in our work: 1. the role of backstage clinical teams in translating the caller/call-taker interaction in their internal risk negotiation and, 2. the role of policy frameworks, protocols and regulations in the framing of institutional priorities and resource allocation. We take a multi method approach and combine the analysis of 999 calls with the analysis of policy documents. We draw on interaction analysis, corpus methodologies and thematic analysis. In this paper, we report on our preliminary findings and focus in particular on the risk factors we have identified and the relationship with the regulations that create the frame within which teams operate. We close the paper with implications of our study for providing evidence-based policy intervention and recommendations for further research.

Keywords: emergency (999) call, interaction analysis, discourse analysis, ambulance dispatch, medical discourse

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Authors: Dina Farran, Mark Ashworth, Fiona Gaughran

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Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with an increased risk of stroke, contributing to heart failure and death. In this project, we aim to improve patient safety by screening for stroke risk among people with AF and co-morbid mental illness. To do so, we started by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis on prevalence, management, and outcomes of AF in people with Serious Mental Illness (SMI) versus the general population. We then evaluated oral anticoagulation (OAC) prescription trends in people with AF and co-morbid SMI in King’s College Hospital. We also evaluated the association between mental illness severity and OAC prescription in eligible patients in South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust. Next, we implemented an electronic clinical decision support system (eCDSS) consisting of a visual prompt on patient electronic Personal Health Records to screen for AF-related stroke risk in three Mental Health of Older Adults wards at SLaM. Finally, we assessed the feasibility and acceptability of the eCDSS by qualitatively investigating clinicians’ perspectives of the potential usefulness of the eCDSS (pre-intervention) and their experiences and their views regarding its impact on clinicians and patients (post-intervention). The systematic review showed that people with SMI had low reported rates of AF. AF patients with SMI were less likely to receive OAC than the general population. When receiving warfarin, people with SMI, particularly bipolar disorder, experienced poor anticoagulation control compared to the general population. Meta-analysis showed that SMI was not significantly associated with an increased risk of stroke or major bleeding when adjusting for underlying risk factors. The main findings of the first observational study were that among AF patients having a high stroke risk, those with co-morbid SMI were less likely than non-SMI to be prescribed any OAC, particularly warfarin. After 2019, there was no significant difference between the two groups. In the second observational study, patients with AF and co-morbid SMI were less likely to be prescribed any OAC compared to those with dementia, substance use disorders, or common mental disorders, adjusting for age, sex, stroke, and bleeding risk scores. Among AF patients with co-morbid SMI, warfarin was less likely to be prescribed to those having alcohol or substance dependency, serious self-injury, hallucinations or delusions, and activities of daily living impairment. In the intervention, clinicians were asked to confirm the presence of AF, clinically assess stroke and bleeding risks, record risk scores in clinical notes, and refer patients at high risk of stroke to OAC clinics. Clinicians reported many potential benefits for the eCDSS, including improving clinical effectiveness, better identification of patients at risk, safer and more comprehensive care, consistency in decision making and saving time. Identified potential risks included rigidity in decision-making, overreliance, reduced critical thinking, false positive recommendations, annoyance, and increased workload. This study presents a unique opportunity to quantify AF patients with mental illness who are at high risk of severe outcomes using electronic health records. This has the potential to improve health outcomes and, therefore patients' quality of life.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, stroke, mental health conditions, electronic clinical decision support systems

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Authors: Grâce Chidikofan, François Pinta, A. Benoist, G. Volle, J. Valette

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Statement of the Problem: biomass gasification systems may be relevant for decentralized power generation from recoverable agricultural and wood residues available in rural areas. In recent years, many systems have been implemented in all over the world as especially in Cambodgia, India. Although they have many positive effects, these systems can also affect the environment and human health. Indeed, during the process of biomass gasification, black wastewater containing tars are produced and generally discharged in the local environment either into the rivers or on soil. However, in most environmental assessment studies of biomass gasification systems, the impact of these releases are underestimated, due to the difficulty of identification of their chemical substances. This work deal with the analysis of the environmental impacts of tars from wood gasification in terms of human toxicity cancer effect, human toxicity non-cancer effect, and freshwater ecotoxicity. Methodology: A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach was adopted. The inventory of tars chemicals substances was based on experimental data from a downdraft gasification system. The composition of six samples from two batches of raw materials: one batch made of tree wood species (oak+ plane tree +pine) at 25 % moisture content and the second batch made of oak at 11% moisture content. The tests were carried out for different gasifier load rates, respectively in the range 50-75% and 50-100%. To choose the environmental impacts assessment method, we compared the methods available in SIMAPRO tool (8.2.0) which are taking into account most of the chemical substances. The environmental impacts for 1kg of tars discharged were characterized by ILCD 2011+ method (V.1.08). Findings Experimental results revealed 38 important chemical substances in varying proportion from one test to another. Only 30 are characterized by ILCD 2011+ method, which is one of the best performing methods. The results show that wood species or moisture content have no significant impact on human toxicity noncancer effect (HTNCE) and freshwater ecotoxicity (FWE) for water release. For human toxicity cancer effect (HTCE), a small gap is observed between impact factors of the two batches, either 3.08E-7 CTUh/kg against 6.58E-7 CTUh/kg. On the other hand, it was found that the risk of negative effects is higher in case of tar release into water than on soil for all impact categories. Indeed, considering the set of samples, the average impact factor obtained for HTNCE varies respectively from 1.64 E-7 to 1.60E-8 CTUh/kg. For HTCE, the impact factor varies between 4.83E-07 CTUh/kg and 2.43E-08 CTUh/kg. The variability of those impact factors is relatively low for these two impact categories. Concerning FWE, the variability of impact factor is very high. It is 1.3E+03 CTUe/kg for tars release into water against 2.01E+01 CTUe/kg for tars release on soil. Statement concluding: The results of this study show that the environmental impacts of tars emission of biomass gasification systems can be consequent and it is important to investigate the ways to reduce them. For environmental research, these results represent an important step of a global environmental assessment of the studied systems. It could be used to better manage the wastewater containing tars to reduce as possible the impacts of numerous still running systems all over the world.

Keywords: biomass gasification, life cycle analysis, LCA, environmental impact, tars

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Authors: Selim M. Khan, Dustin D. Pearson, Tryggve Rönnqvist, Markus E. Nielsen, Joshua M. Taron, Aaron A. Goodarzi

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Accumulation of radioactive radon gas in indoor air poses a serious risk to human health by increasing the lifetime risk of lung cancer and is classified by IARC as a category one carcinogen. Radon exposure risks are a function of geologic, geographic, design, and human behavioural variables and can change over time. Using time series and deep machine learning modelling, we analyzed long-term radon test outcomes as a function of building metrics from 25,489 Canadian and 38,596 Swedish residential properties constructed between 1945 to 2020. While Canadian and Swedish properties built between 1970 and 1980 are comparable (96–103 Bq/m³), innate radon risks subsequently diverge, rising in Canada and falling in Sweden such that 21st Century Canadian houses show 467% greater average radon (131 Bq/m³) relative to Swedish equivalents (28 Bq/m³). These trends are consistent across housing types and regions within each country. The introduction of energy efficiency measures within Canadian and Swedish building codes coincided with opposing radon level trajectories in each nation. Deep machine learning modelling predicts that, without intervention, average Canadian residential radon levels will increase to 176 Bq/m³ by 2050, emphasizing the importance and urgency of future building code intervention to achieve systemic radon reduction in Canada.

Keywords: radon health risk, time-series, deep machine learning, lung cancer, Canada, Sweden

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: George Clifford Yamson

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As institutions across the world become more focused on sustainability, academic libraries are considering ways to reduce their environmental impact. One strategy is the use of sustainable online services, which can reduce the need for physical materials and transportation. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of sustainable online services in reducing the environmental impact of academic libraries. Using a mixed-methods approach, the survey will be used to solicit information from library staff and users to gather data on their attitudes towards sustainable online services and their usage patterns. A comparative analysis will be conducted on the costs of traditional library services versus sustainable online services. The findings of this study will contribute to the growing body of literature on green academic libraries and provide insights into the potential of sustainable online services to reduce the environmental impact of academic libraries.

Keywords: sustainability, environmental sustainability, academic libraries, green printing, green copying, online services

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Jinesh Kumar Jain, Faishal Pathan

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The concept of sustainable development and effective environmental regulation has led to the emergence of a new field of study and practise that is the Green Supply Chain Management. GSCM has become a subject of great importance for both the developed and developing countries to achieve the desired and much-awaited goals of the firm within the environmental and sustainable framework. Its merits are comprised of good financial pay off and competitiveness to the firms in a long lasting and sustainable manner. The purpose of the paper is to briefly review the recent literature of the GSCM and also determines the new direction area of this emerging field. A detailed study has helped to enlighten the minute details and develop the research direction of the study. The GSCM has gained popularity with both academic and practitioners. The items for the study were developed based on the extent literature. Here we found that the state of adoption of GSCM practices by Indian Firms was still in its infancy, the awareness of environmental sustainability was quite low among consumers and the regulatory frameworks were also lacking in terms promoting environmental sustainability. The present paper is an attempt to emphasize much attention on the above-mentioned issues and present a conclusive summary to make its use widespread and for reaching.

Keywords: environmental management, environmental performance, financial performance, green supply chain management

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad

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The aim of this study is to analyze the risks factors and issues with waste management in developing nations as barriers. Depending on their content and categorization, wastes are managed differently. Waste management strategies differ for liquid, solid, and organic wastes. The final stage of trash disposal entails procedures like burning, interment, recycling, and treatment. Due to the rising creation of solid waste, the growing urban population has a magnified impact on the environment and public health. All regions, but especially informal urban neighborhoods, tribal villages, and official rural settlements have a protracted backlog in waste services. Another significant impediment seen in the developing world is a lack of education and awareness of effective waste-management practices. Unauthorized dumpsites pose a serious risk to the environment since they could contain dangerous elements like radioactive, infectious, and toxic waste. Wealthier individuals are more inclined to think that their actions will have an impact on environmental problems and to act to address them. Waste managers need to take action to make sure the public is given information that is consistent with what they currently know. The results of the data analysis conducted with the aid of the various methodologies discussed in the preceding chapter are presented in this chapter by the researcher. Descriptive analysis has been used in research to determine whether or not there are relationships between variables and to determine the importance of the variables. According to a survey, there are no efforts being made to lessen the odor that garbage dump sites emit (in terms of treating or recycling the material placed at dumpsite) This might be the case since respondents only commented on the waste management conditions in their immediate surroundings and may not have fully understood the steps taken to resolve this issue.

Keywords: risk factor of waste material, lack of awareness, developing countries struggles, waste management

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Authors: Xiao Yang, Ji Zhang, Yingli Song, Hui Huang, Jing Zhang, Yan Wang, Rongrong Han, Zhixuan Xiang, Lu Chen, Lingling Gao

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Aim and Objectives: To examine physical activity self-efficacy, identify its predictors, and further explore the mechanism of action among the predictors in mainland Chinese pregnant women with high risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Background: Physical activity could protect pregnant women from developing GDM. Physical activity self-efficacy was the key predictor of physical activity. Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2021 to May 2022 in Zhengzhou, China. Methods: 252 eligible pregnant women completed the Pregnancy Physical Activity Self-efficacy Scale, the Social Support for Physical Activity Scale, the Knowledge on Physical Activity Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, and a socio-demographic data sheet. Multiple linear regression was applied to explore the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling was used to explore the mechanism of action among the predictors. Results: Chinese pregnant women with a high risk for GDM reported a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. The best-fit regression analysis revealed four variables explained 17.5% of the variance in physical activity self-efficacy. Social support for physical activity was the strongest predictor, followed by knowledge of the physical activity, intention to do physical activity, and anxiety symptoms. The model analysis indicated that knowledge of physical activity could release anxiety and depressive symptoms and then increase physical activity self-efficacy. Conclusion: The present study revealed a moderate level of physical activity self-efficacy. Interventions targeting pregnant women with high risk for GDM need to include the predictors of physical activity self-efficacy. Relevance to clinical practice: To facilitate pregnant women with high risk for GDM to engage in physical activity, healthcare professionals may find assess physical activity self-efficacy and intervene as soon as possible on their first antenatal visit. Physical activity intervention programs focused on self-efficacy may be conducted in further research.

Keywords: physical activity, gestational diabetes, self-efficacy, predictors

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Authors: Sheila Shamuganathan, Mageswary Karpudewan

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This study investigated the effectiveness of green chemistry integrated with Science Writing Heuristic (SWH) in enhancing matriculation students’ responsible environmental behaviour. For this purpose 207 matriculation students were randomly assigned into experimental (N=118) and control (N=89) group. For the experimental group the chemistry concepts were taught using the instructional approach of green chemistry integrated with Science Writing Heuristic (SWH) while for the control group the same content was taught using green chemistry. The data was analysed using ANCOVA and findings obtained from the quantitative analysis reveals that there is significant changes in responsible environmental behaviour (F 1,204) = 32.13 (ηp² = 0.14) which favours the experimental group. The responses of the qualitative data obtained from an interview with the experimental group also further strengthen and indicated a significant improvement in responsible environmental behaviour. The outcome of the study suggests that using green chemistry integrated with Science Writing Heuristic (SWH) could be an alternative approach to improve students’ responsible environmental behaviour towards the environment.

Keywords: science writing heuristic, green chemistry, pro environmental behaviour, laboratory

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: safety climate, occupational health, civil engineering, productivity

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 168