Search results for: Policy
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3804

Search results for: Policy

2604 What Happens When We Try to Bridge the Science-Practice Gap? An Example from the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law

Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

Abstract:

The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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2603 Self-Disclosure and Privacy Management Behavior in Social Media: Privacy Calculus Perspective

Authors: Chien-Wen Chen, Nguyen Duong Thuy Trang, Yu-Hsuan Chang

Abstract:

With the development of information technology, social networking sites are inseparable from life and have become an important way for people to communicate. Nonetheless, privacy issues are raised by the presence of personal information on social networking sites. However, users can benefit from using the functions of social networking sites, which also leads to users worrying about the leakage of personal information without corresponding privacy protection behaviors, which is called the privacy paradox. However, previous studies have questioned the viewpoint of the privacy paradox, believing that users are not so naive and that people with privacy concerns will conduct privacy management. Consequently, this study is based on the view of privacy calculation perspective to investigate the privacy behavior of users on social networking sites. Among them, social benefits and privacy concerns are taken as the expected benefits and costs in the viewpoint of privacy calculation. At the same time, this study also explores the antecedents, including positive feedback, self-presentation, privacy policy, and information sensitivity, and the consequence of privacy behavior of weighing benefits and costs, including self-disclosure and three privacy management strategies by interpersonal boundaries (Preventive, Censorship, and Corrective). The survey respondents' characteristics and prior use experience of social networking sites were analyzed. As a consequence, a survey of 596 social network users was conducted online to validate the research framework. The results show that social benefit has the greatest influence on privacy behavior. The most important external factors affecting privacy behavior are positive feedback, followed by the privacy policy and information sensitivity. In addition, the important findings of this study are that social benefits will positively affect privacy management. It shows that users can get satisfaction from interacting with others through social networking sites. They will not only disclose themselves but also manage their privacy on social networking sites after considering social benefits and privacy management on social networking sites, and it expands the adoption of the Privacy Calculus Perspective framework from prior research. Therefore, it is suggested that as the functions of social networking sites increase and the development of social networking sites, users' needs should be understood and updated in order to ensure the sustainable operation of social networking.

Keywords: privacy calculus perspective, self-disclosure, privacy management, social benefit, privacy concern

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2602 A Gendered Perspective of the Influence of Public Transport Infrastructural Design on Accessibility

Authors: Ajeni Ari, Chiara Maria Leva, Lorraine D’Arcy, Mary Kinahan

Abstract:

In addressing gender and transport, considerations of mobility disparities amongst users are important. Public transport (PT) policy and design do not efficiently account for the varied mobility practices between men and women, with literature only recently showing a movement towards gender inclusion in transport. Arrantly, transport policy and designs remain gender-blind to the variation of mobility needs. The global movement towards sustainability highlights the need for expeditious strategies that could mitigate biases within the existing system. At the forefront of such a plan of action, in part, may be mandated inclusive infrastructural designs that stimulate user engagement with the transport system. Fundamentally access requires a means or an opportunity for the entity, which for PT is an establishment of its physical environment and/or infrastructural design. Its practicality may be utilised with knowledge of shortcomings in tangible or intangible aspects of the service offerings allowing access to opportunities. To inform on existing biases in PT planning and design, this study analyses qualitative data to examine the opinions and lived experiences among transport users in Ireland. Findings show that infrastructural design plays a significant role in users’ engagement with the service. Paramount to accessibility are service provisions that cater to both user interactions and those of their dependents. Apprehension to use the service is more so evident in women in comparison to men, particularly while carrying out household duties and caring responsibilities at peak times or dark hours. Furthermore, limitations are apparent with infrastructural service offerings that do not accommodate the physical (dis)ability of users, especially universal design. There are intersecting factors that impinge on accessibility, e.g., safety and security, yet essentially; the infrastructural design is an important influencing parameter to user perceptual conditioning. Additionally, data discloses the need for user intricacies to be factored in transport planning geared towards gender inclusivity, including mobility practices, travel purpose, transit time or location, and system integration.

Keywords: infrastructure design, public transport, accessibility, women, gender

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2601 Forest Products Pricing System in Community Forestry Program: An Analysis of Its Impacts on Forest Resources Management and Livelihood Improvement of Local People

Authors: Mohan Bikram Thapa

Abstract:

Despite the successful implementation of community forestry program, a number of pros and cons have been raised on Terai community forestry in the case of lowland locally called Terai region of Nepal, which climatically belongs to tropical humid and possessed high-quality forests in terms of ecology and economy. The study aims to investigate the local pricing strategy of forest products and its impacts on equitable forest benefits sharing, the collection of community fund and carrying out livelihood improvement activities. The study was carried out on six community forests revealed that local people have substantially benefited from the community forests. However, being the region is heterogeneous by socio-economic conditions and forest resources have higher economic potential, the decision of low pricing strategy made by the local people have created inequality problems while sharing the forest benefits, and poorly contributed to community fund collection and consequently carrying out limited activities of livelihood improvement. The paper argued that the decision of low pricing strategy of forest products is counterproductive to promote the equitable benefit-sharing in the areas of heterogeneous socio-economic conditions with high-value forests. The low pricing strategy has been increasing accessibility of better off households at a higher rate than poor, as such households always have the higher affording capacity. It is also defective to increase the community fund and carry out activities of livelihood improvement effectively. The study concluded that unilateral decentralized forest policy and decision-making autonomy to the local people seems questionable unless their decision-making capacities are enriched sufficiently. Therefore, it is recommended that empowerments of decision-making capacity of local people and their respective institutions together with policy and program formulation are prerequisite for efficient and equitable community forest management and its long-term sustainability.

Keywords: benefit sharing, community forest, livelihood, pricing mechanism, Nepal

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2600 Evaluating Gender Sensitivity and Policy: Case Study of an EFL Textbook in Armenia

Authors: Ani Kojoyan

Abstract:

Linguistic studies have been investigating a connection between gender and linguistic development since 1970s. Scholars claim that gender differences in first and second language learning are socially constructed. Recent studies to language learning and gender reveal that second language acquisition is also a social phenomenon directly influencing one’s gender identity. Those responsible for designing language learning-teaching materials should be encouraged to understand the importance of and address the gender sensitivity accurately in textbooks. Writing or compiling a textbook is not an easy task; it requires strong academic abilities, patience, and experience. For a long period of time Armenia has been involved in the compilation process of a number of foreign language textbooks. However, there have been very few discussions or evaluations of those textbooks which will allow specialists to theorize that practice. The present paper focuses on the analysis of gender sensitivity issues and policy aspects involved in an EFL textbook. For the research the following material has been considered – “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology”, first printed in 2011. The selection of the material is not accidental. First, the mentioned textbook has been widely used in university teaching over years. Secondly, in Armenia “A Basic English Grammar: Morphology” has considered one of the most successful English grammar textbooks in a university teaching environment and served a source-book for other authors to compile and design their textbooks. The present paper aims to find out whether an EFL textbook is gendered in the Armenian teaching environment, and whether the textbook compilers are aware of gendered messages while compiling educational materials. It also aims at investigating students’ attitude toward the gendered messages in those materials. And finally, it also aims at increasing the gender sensitivity among book compilers and educators in various educational settings. For this study qualitative and quantitative research methods of analyses have been applied, the quantitative – in terms of carrying out surveys among students (45 university students, 18-25 age group), and the qualitative one – by discourse analysis of the material and conducting in-depth and semi-structured interviews with the Armenian compilers of the textbook (interviews with 3 authors). The study is based on passive and active observations and teaching experience done in a university classroom environment in 2014-2015, 2015-2016. The findings suggest that the discussed and analyzed teaching materials (145 extracts and examples) include traditional examples of intensive use of language and role-modelling, particularly, men are mostly portrayed as active, progressive, aggressive, whereas women are often depicted as passive and weak. These modeled often serve as a ‘reliable basis’ for reinforcing the traditional roles that have been projected on female and male students. The survey results also show that such materials contribute directly to shaping learners’ social attitudes and expectations around issues of gender. The applied techniques and discussed issues can be generalized and applied to other foreign language textbook compilation processes, since those principles, regardless of a language, are mostly the same.

Keywords: EFL textbooks, gender policy, gender sensitivity, qualitative and quantitative research methods

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2599 Inequalities in Gastrointestinal Infections between UK Ethnic Groups: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

Authors: Iram Zahair, Tanith Rose, Oyinlola Oyebode, Stephen Clayton, Iman Ghosh, Michelle Maden, Ben Barr

Abstract:

Background: Gastrointestinal infections exert a significant public health burden on UK healthcare services and the community. However, there are conflicting findings on where ethnic inequalities are likely to persist. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that ascertain differences in the incidence and prevalence of gastrointestinal infections within and between UK ethnic groups and explore possible explanations for heterogeneity observed within the literature. Methods: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidance, a systematic review methodology was used. Medline, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and grey literature were searched from 1980 to 2021 for studies reporting an association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections in UK population samples. Two reviewers independently screened the articles and conducted quality appraisals; data extraction was undertaken by one reviewer and verified by two reviewers (PROSPERO CRD 42021240714). A narrative synthesis was undertaken to synthesise the study findings. Results: The searches identified 8134 studies; 13 met the inclusion criteria. 12 out of 13 studies found a difference in the prevalence of gastrointestinal infections between different ethnic groups. UK ethnic minorities, predominantly men and children of Asian ethnicity, had an increased risk of infection than the white British majority in 12 studies; the Pakistani ethnic group had a higher risk of infection in three out of 13 studies. Studies reported that age and sex confounded the relationship between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. At the same time, the country of birth, socioeconomic status, and geographical location of ethnic groups mediated this association and significantly explained the heterogeneity observed across the studies. Harvest plots supported the textual synthesis. Conclusion: This systematic review elucidates the lack of extensive UK quantitative evidence examining the association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. Insights into gastrointestinal infections and ethnicity's association can help address policy actions to mitigate the inequalities identified within and between UK ethnic groups.

Keywords: ethnic and racial populations, public health, public health policy, systematic review

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2598 A Survey of Dynamic QoS Methods in Sofware Defined Networking

Authors: Vikram Kalekar

Abstract:

Modern Internet Protocol (IP) networks deploy traditional and modern Quality of Service (QoS) management methods to ensure the smooth flow of network packets during regular operations. SDN (Software-defined networking) networks have also made headway into better service delivery by means of novel QoS methodologies. While many of these techniques are experimental, some of them have been tested extensively in controlled environments, and few of them have the potential to be deployed widely in the industry. With this survey, we plan to analyze the approaches to QoS and resource allocation in SDN, and we will try to comment on the possible improvements to QoS management in the context of SDN.

Keywords: QoS, policy, congestion, flow management, latency, delay index terms-SDN, delay

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2597 Comparing Quality of Care in Family Planning Services in Primary Public and Private Health Care Facilities in Ethiopia

Authors: Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Mohammad Afzal Mahmood, Judith Streak Gomersall, Caroline O. Laurence

Abstract:

Introduction: Improving access to quality family planning services is the key to improving health of women and children. However, there is currently little evidence on the quality and scope of family planning services provided by private facilities, and this compares to the services provided in public facilities in Ethiopia. This is important, particularly in determining whether the government should further expand the roles of the private sector in the delivery of family planning facility. Methods: This study used the 2014 Ethiopian Services Provision Assessment Plus (ESPA+) survey dataset for comparing the structural aspects of quality of care in family planning services. The present analysis used a weighted sample of 1093 primary health care facilities (955 public and 138 private). This study employed logistic regression analysis to compare key structural variables between public and private facilities. While taking the structural variables as an outcome for comparison, the facility type (public vs private) were used as the key exposure of interest. Results: When comparing availability of basic amenities (infrastructure), public facilities were less likely to have functional cell phones (AOR=0.12; 95% CI: 0.07-0.21), and water supply (AOR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.15-0.58) than private facilities. However, public facilities were more likely to have staff available 24 hours in the facility (AOR=0.12; 95% CI: 0.07-0.21), providers having family planning related training in the past 24 months (AOR=4.4; 95% CI: 2.51, 7.64) and possessing guidelines/protocols (AOR= 3.1 95% CI: 1.87, 5.24) than private facilities. Moreover, comparing the availability of equipment, public facilities had higher odds of having pelvic model for IUD demonstration (AOR=2.60; 95% CI: 1.35, 5.01) and penile model for condom demonstration (AOR=2.51; 95% CI: 1.32, 4.78) than private facilities. Conclusion: The present study suggests that Ethiopian government needs to provide emphasis towards the private sector in terms of providing family planning guidelines and training on family planning services for their staff. It is also worthwhile for the public health facilities to allocate funding for improving the availability of basic amenities. Implications for policy and/ or practice: This study calls policy makers to design appropriate strategies in providing opportunities for training a health care providers working in private health facility.

Keywords: quality of care, family planning, public-private, Ethiopia

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2596 Anti-Corruption Strategies for Private Sector Development: Case Study for the Brazilian Automotive Industry

Authors: Rogerio Vieira Dos Reis

Abstract:

Countries like Brazil that despite fighting hard against corruption are not improving their corruption perception, especially due to systemic political corruption, should review their corruption prevention strategies. This thesis brings a case study based on an alternative way of preventing corruption: addressing the corruption drivers in public policies that lead to poor economic performance. After discussing the Brazilian industrial policies adopted recently, especially the measures towards the automotive sector, two corruption issues in this sector are analyzed: facilitating payment for fiscal benefits and buying the extension of fiscal benefits. In-depth interviews conducted with a policymaker and an executive of the automobile sector provide insights for identifying three main corruption drivers: excessive and unnecessary bureaucracy, a complex tax system and the existence of a closed market without setting performance requirements to be achieved by the benefited firms. Both the identification of the drivers of successful industrial policies and the proposal of anti-corruption strategies to ensure developmental outcomes are based on the economic perspective of industrial policy advocated by developmental authors and on the successful South Korean economic development experience. Structural anti-corruption measures include tax reform, the regulation of lobbying and legislation to allow corporate political contribution. Besides improving policymakers’ technical capabilities, measures at the ministry level include redesigning the automotive regimes as long-term policies focused on national investment with simple and clear rules and making fiscal benefits conditional upon performance targets focused on suppliers. This case study is of broader interest because it recommends the importance of adapting performance audits conducted by anti-corruption agencies, to focus not only on the delivery of public services, but also on the identification of potentially highly damaging corruption drivers in public policies that grant fiscal benefits to achieve developmental outcomes.

Keywords: Brazilian automotive sector, corruption, economic development, industrial policy, Inovar-Auto

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2595 The Judge Citizens Have in Mind, Comparative Lessons about the Rule of Law Matrix

Authors: Daniela Piana

Abstract:

This work casts light on what lies underneath the rule of law. In order to do so it unfolds the arguments in three main steps. The first one is a pars destruens: the mainstreaming scholarship on judicial independence and judicial accountability is questioned under the large amount of data we have at our disposal (this step is accomplished in the first two paragraphs). The second step is the reframe of the concept of the rule of law and the consequent rise of a hidden dimension, which has been so far largely underexplored: responsiveness. The third step consists into offering the readers empirical support and drawing thereby consequences in terms of policy design and citizens engagement into the rule of law implementation (these two steps are accomplished in the third paragraph).

Keywords: rule of law, accountability, trust, citizens

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2594 Recent Volatility in Islamic Banking Sector of Bangladesh: Nexus Between Economy, Religion and Politics

Authors: Abdul Kader

Abstract:

This paper attempts to investigate several contributory factors to recent volatility in the Islamic Banking sector of Bangladesh. In particular, the study explores corporate governance, credit management, credit regulations, inept board of directors, using religious sentiment as a means to deceive general people, and the degree of political interference as potential contributory factors. To find the correlation among different variables, semi-structured questionnaires were distributed among the clients, bank managers, some Banking scholars and ex-members of the board of directors of three Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Later, ten interviews were collected from key informants to gain in-depth information about the present mismanagement of Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. After then, data were analyzed using statistical software and substantiated by secondary sources like newspapers, reports and investigative reports aired in screen media. The paper found a correlation between almost all contributory factors and recent unstable conditions in the Islamic banking sector. After performing regression analysis, this paper found a more significant relationship between some of the contributory factors with Banking volatility than others. For instance, credit management, inept board of directors, depriving customers of proving no profit in the name of business—no interest-- and political interference have a strong significant positive correlation with the present poor condition of Islamic Banking. This paper concludes that while internal management is important in recovering the losses, the government needs to ensure framing better policy for the Islamic Banking system, Central Bank needs to supervise and monitor all Islamic banks meticulously and loan receivers must go through the impartial evaluation and approved by the representatives of the Central Shariah Board. This paper also recommends that there is a need to strengthen the auditing system and improve regulatory oversight of the Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Policy recommendations that this paper put forward could provide an outline for dealing with the existing challenging condition of Islamic Banks and these could be applied to similar problems in other countries where the Islamic Banking model exists.

Keywords: Islamic bank, volatility in banking sector, shariah law, credit management, political interference

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2593 Association Between Renewable Energy and Community Forest User Group of Siranchowk Rural Municipality, Nepal

Authors: Prem Bahadur Giri, Mathinee Yucharoen

Abstract:

Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs) have been the core stone of forest management efforts in Nepal. Due to the lack of a smooth transition into the local governance structure in 2017, policy instruments have not been effectively cascaded to the local level, creating ambiguity and inconsistency in forest governance. Descriptive mixed-method research was performed with community users and stakeholders of Tarpakha community forest, Siranchowk Rural Municipality, to understand the role of the political economy in CFUG management. A household survey was conducted among 100 households (who also are existing members of the Tarpakha CFUG) to understand and document their energy consumption preferences and practices. Likewise, ten key informant interviews and five focus group discussions with the municipality and forest management officials were also conducted to have a wider overview of the factors and political, socio-economic, and religious contexts behind the utilization of renewable energy for sustainable development. Findings from our study suggest only 3% of households use biogas as the main source of energy. The rest of the households mention liquid petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and firewood as major sources of energy for domestic purposes. Community members highlighted the difficulty in accessing firewood due to strict regulations from the CFUG, lack of cattle and manpower to rear cattle to produce cow dung (for biogas), lack of technical expertise at the community level for the operation and maintenance of solar energy, among others as challenges of resource. Likewise, key informants have mentioned policy loopholes at both the federal and local levels, especially with regard to the promotion of alternative or renewable energy, as there are no clear mandates and provisions to regulate the renewable energy industry. The study recommends doing an in-depth study on the feasibility of renewable energy sources, especially in the context of CFUGs, where biodiversity conservation aspects need to be equally taken into consideration while thinking of the promotion and expansion of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: community forest, renewable energy, sustainable development, Nepal

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2592 Bank Liquidity Creation in a Dual Banking System: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: Lianne M. Q. Lee, Mohammed Sharaf Shaiban

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The importance of bank liquidity management took center stage as policy makers promoted a more resilient global banking system after the market turmoil of 2007. The growing recognition of Islamic banks’ function of intermediating funds in the economy warrants the need to investigate its balance sheet structure which is distinct from its conventional counterparts. Given that asymmetric risk, transformation is inevitable; Islamic banks need to identify the liquidity risk within their distinctive balance sheet structure. Thus, there is a strong need to quantify and assess the liquidity position to ensure proper functioning of a financial institution. It is vital to measure bank liquidity because liquid banks face less liquidity risk. We examine this issue by using two alternative quantitative measures of liquidity creation “cat fat” and “cat nonfat” constructed by Berger and Bouwman (2009). “Cat fat” measures all on balance sheet items including off balance sheet, whilst the latter measures only on balance sheet items. Liquidity creation is measured over the period 2007-2014 in 14 countries where Islamic and conventional commercial banks coexist. Also, separately by bank size class as empirical studies have shown that liquidity creation varies by bank size. An interesting and important finding shows that all size class of Islamic banks, on average have increased creation of aggregate liquidity in real dollar terms over the years for both liquidity creation measures especially for large banks indicating that Islamic banks actually generates more liquidity to the economy compared to its conventional counterparts, including from off-balance sheet items. The liquidity creation for off-balance sheets by conventional banks may have been affected by the global financial crisis when derivatives markets were severely hit. The results also suggest that Islamic banks have the higher volume of assets and deposits and that borrowing/issues of bonds are less in Islamic banks compared to conventional banks because most products are interest-based. As Islamic banks appear to create more liquidity than conventional banks under both measures, it translates that the development of Islamic banking is significant over the decades since its inception. This finding is encouraging as, despite Islamic banking’s overall size, it represents growth opportunities for these countries.

Keywords: financial institution, liquidity creation, liquidity risk, policy and regulation

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2591 Implementation Principles and Strategies of Bilingual Teaching in Taiwan

Authors: Chinfen Chen

Abstract:

This paper aims to focus on the challenges and doubts encountered in the implementation of ‘bilingual teaching in some fields of courses’, and propose implementation principles and strategies from the four areas of curriculum design, teaching strategies, teaching language application, and bilingual teaching implementation and operation, as a school The administrative team considers when planning bilingual teaching and also clarifies teachers' doubts about the implementation of bilingual teaching to enhance their willingness and confidence to participate in bilingual teaching.

Keywords: bilingual education policy, language immersion, partial bilingual education, content knowledge and target language acquisition, inquiry-based teaching.

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2590 Consideration for a Policy Change to the South African Collective Bargaining Process: A Reflection on National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa v Trenstar (Pty) (2023) 44 ILJ 1189 (CC)

Authors: Carlos Joel Tchawouo Mbiada

Abstract:

At the back of the apartheid era, South Africa embarked on a democratic drive of all its institution underpinned by a social justice perspective to eradicate past injustices. These democratic values based on fundamental human rights and equality informed all rights enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. This means that all rights are therefore infused by social justice perspective and labour rights are no exception. Labour law is therefore regulated to the extent that it is viewed as too rigid. Hence a call for more flexibility to enhance investment and boost job creation. This view articulated by the Free Market Foundation fell on deaf ears as the opponents believe in what is termed regulated flexibility which affords greater protection to vulnerable workers while promoting business opportunities and investment. The question that this paper seeks to examine is to what extent the regulation of labour law will go to protect employees. This question is prompted by the recent Constitutional Court’s judgment of National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa v Trenstar which barred the employer from employing labour replacement in response to the strike action by its employees. The question whether employers may use replacement labour and have recourse to lock-outs in response to strike action is considered in the context of the dichotomy between the Free market foundation and social justice perspectives which are at loggerheads in the South African collective bargaining process. With the current unemployment rate soaring constantly, the aftermath of the Covid 19 pandemic, the effects of the war in Ukraine and lately the financial burden of load shedding on companies to run their businesses, this paper argues for a policy shift toward deregulation or a lesser state and judiciary intervention. This initiative will relieve the burden on companies to run a viable business while at the same time protecting existing jobs.

Keywords: labour law, replacement labour, right to strike, free market foundation perspective, social justice perspective

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2589 Assessment of Ecosystem Readiness for Adoption of Circularity: A Multi-Case Study Analysis of Textile Supply Chain in Pakistan

Authors: Azhar Naila, Steuer Benjamin

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Over-exploitation of resources and the burden on natural systems have provoked worldwide concerns about the potential resource as well as supply risks in the future. It has been estimated that the consumption of materials and resources will double by 2060, substantially mounting the amount of waste and emissions produced by individuals, organizations, and businesses, which necessitates sustainable technological innovations to address the problem. Therefore, there is a need to design products and services purposefully for material resource efficiency. This directs us toward the conceptualization and implementation of the ‘Circular Economy (CE),’ which has gained considerable attention among policymakers, researchers, and businesses in the past decade. A large amount of literature focuses on the concept of CE. However, contextual empirical research on the need to embrace CE in an emerging economy like Pakistan is still scarce, where the traditional economic model of take-make-dispose is quite common. Textile exports account for approximately 61% of Pakistan's total exports, and the industry provides employment for about 40% of the country's total industrial workforce. The industry provides job opportunities to above 10 million farmers, with cotton as the main crop of Pakistan. Consumers, companies, as well as the government have explored very limited CE potential in the country. This gap has motivated us to carry out the present study. The study is based on a mixed method approach, for which key informant interviews have been conducted to get insight into the present situation of the ecosystem readiness for the adoption of CE in 20 textile manufacturing industries. The subject study has been conducted on the following areas i) the level of understanding of the CE concept among key stakeholders in the textile manufacturing industry ii) Companies are pushing boundaries to invest in circularity-based initiatives, exploring the depths of risk-taking iii) the current national policy framework support the adoption of CE. Qualitative assessment has been undertaken using MAXQDA to analyze the data received after the key informant interviews. The data has been transcribed and coded for further analysis. The results show that most of the key stakeholders have a clear understanding of the concept, whereas few consider it to be only relevant to the end-of-life treatment of waste generated from the industry. Non-governmental organizations have been observed to be key players in creating awareness among the manufacturing industries. Maximum companies have shown their consent to invest in initiatives related to the adoption of CE. Whereas a few consider themselves far behind the race due to a lack of financial resources and support from responsible institutions. Mostly, the industries have an ambitious vision for integrating CE into the company’s policy but seem not to be ready to take any significant steps to nurture a culture for experimentation. However, the government is not playing any vital role in the transition towards CE; rather, they have been busy with the state’s uncertain political situation. Presently, Pakistan does not have any policy framework that supports the transition towards CE. Acknowledging the present landscape a well-informed CE transition is immediately required.

Keywords: circular economy, textile supply chain, textile manufacturing industries, resource efficiency, ecosystem readiness, multi-case study analysis

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2588 Girls, Justice, and Advocacy: Using Arts-Based Public Health Strategies to Challenge Gender Inequities in Juvenile Justice

Authors: Tasha L. Golden

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Girls in the U.S. juvenile justice system are most often arrested for truancy, drug use, or running from home, all of which are symptoms of abuse. In fact, some have called this 'The Sexual Abuse to Prison Pipeline.' Such abuse has consequences for girls' health, education, employment, and parenting, often resulting in significant health disparities. Yet when arrested, girls rarely encounter services designed to meet their unique needs. Instead, they are expected to cope with a system that was historically designed for males. In fact, even literature advocating for increased gender equity frequently fails to include girls’ voices and firsthand accounts. In response to these combined injustices, public health researchers launched a trauma-informed creative writing intervention in a southern juvenile detention facility. The program was designed to improve the health of detained girls, while also establishing innovative methods of both data collection and social justice advocacy. Girls’ poems and letters were collected and coded, adding rich qualitative data to traditional survey responses. In addition, as part of the intervention, these poems are regularly published by international literary publisher Sarabande Books—and distributed to judges, city leaders, attorneys, state representatives, and more. By utilizing a creative medium, girls generated substantial civic engagement with their concerns—thus expanding their influence and improving policy advocacy efforts. Researchers hypothesized that having access to their communities and policy makers would provide its own health benefits for incarcerated girls: cultivating self-esteem, locus of control, and a sense of leadership. This paper discusses the establishment of this intervention, examines findings from its evaluation, and includes several girls’ poems as exemplars. Grounded in social science regarding expressive writing, stigma, muted group theory, and health promotion, the paper theorizes about the application of arts-based advocacy efforts to other social justice endeavors.

Keywords: advocacy, public health, social justice, women’s health

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2587 Addressing Food Grain Losses in India: Energy Trade-Offs and Nutrition Synergies

Authors: Matthew F. Gibson, Narasimha D. Rao, Raphael B. Slade, Joana Portugal Pereira, Joeri Rogelj

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Globally, India’s population is among the most severely impacted by nutrient deficiency, yet millions of tonnes of food are lost before reaching consumers. Across food groups, grains represent the largest share of daily calories and overall losses by mass in India. If current losses remain unresolved and follow projected population rates, we estimate, by 2030, losses from grains for human consumption could increase by 1.3-1.8 million tonnes (Mt) per year against current levels of ~10 Mt per year. This study quantifies energy input to minimise storage losses across India, responsible for a quarter of grain supply chain losses. In doing so, we identify and explore a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) triplet between SDG₂, SDG₇, and SDG₁₂ and provide insight for development of joined up agriculture and health policy in the country. Analyzing rice, wheat, maize, bajra, and sorghum, we quantify one route to reduce losses in supply chains, by modelling the energy input to maintain favorable climatic conditions in modern silo storage. We quantify key nutrients (calories, protein, zinc, iron, vitamin A) contained within these losses and calculate roughly how much deficiency in these dietary components could be reduced if grain losses were eliminated. Our modelling indicates, with appropriate uncertainty, maize has the highest energy input intensity for storage, at 110 kWh per tonne of grain (kWh/t), and wheat the lowest (72 kWh/t). This energy trade-off represents 8%-16% of the energy input required in grain production. We estimate if grain losses across the supply chain were saved and targeted to India’s nutritionally deficient population, average protein deficiency could reduce by 46%, calorie by 27%, zinc by 26%, and iron by 11%. This study offers insight for development of Indian agriculture, food, and health policy by first quantifying and then presenting benefits and trade-offs of tackling food grain losses.

Keywords: energy, food loss, grain storage, hunger, India, sustainable development goal, SDG

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2586 Evaluation of Different Waste Management Planning Strategies in an Industrial City

Authors: Leila H. Khiabani, Mohammadreza Vafaee, Farshad Hashemzadeh

Abstract:

Industrial waste management regulates different stages of production, storage, transfer, recycling and waste disposal. There are several common practices for industrial waste management. However, due to various local health, economic, social, environmental and aesthetic considerations, the most optimal principles and measures often vary at each specific industrial zone. In addition, waste management strategies are heavily impacted by local administrative, legal, and financial regulations. In this study, a hybrid qualitative and quantitative research methodology has been designed for waste management planning in an industrial city. Firstly, following a qualitative research methodology, the most relevant waste management strategies for the specific industrial city were identified through interviews with environmental planning and waste management experts. Forty experts participated in this study. Alborz industrial city in Iran, which hosts more than one thousand industrial units in nine hundred acres, was chosen as the sample industrial city in this study. The findings from the expert interviews at the first phase were then used to design a quantitative questionnaire for the second phase of the study. The aim of the questionnaire was to quantify the relative impact of different waste management strategies in the sample industrial city. Eight waste management strategies and three implementation policies were included in the questionnaire. The experts were asked to rank the relative effectiveness of each strategy for environmental planning of the sample industrial city. They were also asked to rank the relative effectiveness of each planning policy on each of the waste management strategies. In the end, the weighted average of all the responses was calculated to identify the most effective waste management strategy and planning policies for the sample industrial city. The results suggested that among the eight suggested waste management strategies, industrial composting is the most effective (31%) strategy based on the collective evaluation of the local expert. Additionally, the results suggested that the most effective policy (58%) in the city’s environmental planning is to reduce waste generation by prolonging the effective life of industrial products using higher quality and recyclable materials. These findings can provide useful expert guidelines for prioritization between different waste management strategies in the city’s overall environmental planning roadmap. The findings may also be applicable to similar industrial cities. In addition, a similar methodology can be utilized in the environmental planning of other industrial cities.

Keywords: environmental planning, industrial city, quantitative research, waste management

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2585 Probing Environmental Sustainability via Brownfield Remediation: A Framework to Manage Brownfields in Ethiopia Lesson to Africa

Authors: Mikiale Gebreslase Gebremariam, Chai Huaqi, Tesfay Gebretsdkan Gebremichael, Dawit Nega Bekele

Abstract:

In recent years, brownfield redevelopment projects (BRPs) have contributed to the overarching paradigm of the United Nations 2030 agendas. In the present circumstance, most developed nations adopted BRPs, an efficacious urban policy tool. However, in developing and some advanced countries, BRPs are lacking due to limitations of awareness, policy tools, and financial capability for cleaning up brownfield sites. For example, the growth and development of Ethiopian cities were achieved at the cost of poor urban planning, including no community consultations and excessive urbanization for future growth. The demand for land resources is more and more urgent as the result of an intermigration to major cities and towns for socio-economic reasons and population growth. In the past, the development mode of spreading major cities has made horizontal urbanizations stretching outwards. Expansion in search of more land resources, while the outer cities are growing, the inner cities are polluted by environmental pollution. It is noteworthy that the rapid development of cities has not brought about an increase in people's happiness index. Thus, the proposed management framework for managing brownfields in Ethiopia as a lesson to the developing nation facing similar challenges and growth will add immense value in solving the problems and give insights into brownfield land utilization. Under the umbrella of the grey incidence decision-making model and with the consideration of multiple stakeholders and tight environmental and economic constraints, the proposed management framework integrates different criteria from economic, social, environmental, technical, and risk aspects into the grey incidence decision-making model and gives useful guidance to manage brownfields in Ethiopia. Furthermore, it will contribute to the future development of the social economy and the missions of the 2030 UN sustainable development goals.

Keywords: Brownfields, environmental sustainability, Ethiopia, grey-incidence decision-making, sustainable urban development

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2584 The Ambivalent Dealing with Diversity: An Ethnographic Study of Diversity and Its Different Faces of Managing in a Mixed Neighborhood in Germany

Authors: Nina Berding

Abstract:

Migration and the ensuing diversity are integral parts of urban societies. However, engaging with the urban society and its diversification is rarely perceived as something trivial but rather as a difficult task and a major challenge. A central aspect of the discourse is the current migration of refugees from countries of the southern hemisphere to Europe and the resulting challenges for cities, their municipalities and the civil society as a whole. Based on exploratory field research in a German inner-city neighborhood, it is aimed to show that the discourses about migration and diversity are completely contrary to the everyday life actions of the urban society. Processes of migration that include leaving one’s hometown and moving to other places, searching for ‘safe’ environments or better opportunities are, historically speaking, not a new phenomenon. The urban dwellers have a large repertoire of strategies in managing processes of difference in everyday life situations, guided them well for centuries and also in these contemporary processes with an increased mobility and diversity. So there is obviously a considerable discrepancy between what is practically lived in everyday life, and how it is talked about. The results of the study demonstrate that the current discourse about the challenges of migration seems to legitimize interventions beyond humanist approaches where migrants serve as collective scapegoats for social problems and affected by different discrimination and criminalization processes. On the one hand, everyone takes advantage of the super-mobility and super-diversity in their daily lives and on the other hand, powerful stakeholders and designated authorities operate a sort of retro- nationalism and identity collectivism. Political players, the municipalities and other stakeholders then follow an urban public policy that takes actions (increasing police presence, concepts and activities for special groups, exclusion from active social life, preventing participation etc.) towards different ‘groups’ of residents, produced along ‘ethnic’ lines. The results also show that, despite the obstacles and adversities placed in their way, the excluded residents perpetually relocate and re-position themselves and attempt to empower themselves by redefining their identities in their neighborhood.

Keywords: coexistence, everyday life, migration and diversity regimes, urban policy

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2583 Development of Knowledge Discovery Based Interactive Decision Support System on Web Platform for Maternal and Child Health System Strengthening

Authors: Partha Saha, Uttam Kumar Banerjee

Abstract:

Maternal and Child Healthcare (MCH) has always been regarded as one of the important issues globally. Reduction of maternal and child mortality rates and increase of healthcare service coverage were declared as one of the targets in Millennium Development Goals till 2015 and thereafter as an important component of the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the last decade, worldwide MCH indicators have improved but could not match the expected levels. Progress of both maternal and child mortality rates have been monitored by several researchers. Each of the studies has stated that only less than 26% of low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) were on track to achieve targets as prescribed by MDG4. Average worldwide annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality rate and maternal mortality rate were 2.2% and 1.9% as on 2011 respectively whereas rates should be minimum 4.4% and 5.5% annually to achieve targets. In spite of having proven healthcare interventions for both mothers and children, those could not be scaled up to the required volume due to fragmented health systems, especially in the developing and under-developed countries. In this research, a knowledge discovery based interactive Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed on web platform which would assist healthcare policy makers to develop evidence-based policies. To achieve desirable results in MCH, efficient resource planning is very much required. In maximum LMICs, resources are big constraint. Knowledge, generated through this system, would help healthcare managers to develop strategic resource planning for combatting with issues like huge inequity and less coverage in MCH. This system would help healthcare managers to accomplish following four tasks. Those are a) comprehending region wise conditions of variables related with MCH, b) identifying relationships within variables, c) segmenting regions based on variables status, and d) finding out segment wise key influential variables which have major impact on healthcare indicators. Whole system development process has been divided into three phases. Those were i) identifying contemporary issues related with MCH services and policy making; ii) development of the system; and iii) verification and validation of the system. More than 90 variables under three categories, such as a) educational, social, and economic parameters; b) MCH interventions; and c) health system building blocks have been included into this web-based DSS and five separate modules have been developed under the system. First module has been designed for analysing current healthcare scenario. Second module would help healthcare managers to understand correlations among variables. Third module would reveal frequently-occurring incidents along with different MCH interventions. Fourth module would segment regions based on previously mentioned three categories and in fifth module, segment-wise key influential interventions will be identified. India has been considered as case study area in this research. Data of 601 districts of India has been used for inspecting effectiveness of those developed modules. This system has been developed by importing different statistical and data mining techniques on Web platform. Policy makers would be able to generate different scenarios from the system before drawing any inference, aided by its interactive capability.

Keywords: maternal and child heathcare, decision support systems, data mining techniques, low and middle income countries

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2582 The Origins of Inflation in Tunisia

Authors: Narimen Rdhaounia Mohamed Kouni

Abstract:

Our aim in this paper is to identify the origins of inflation in Tunisia on the period from 1988 to 2018. In order to estimate the model, an ARDL methodology is used. We studied also the effect of informal economy on inflation. Indeed, we estimated the size of the informal economy in Tunisia based on Gutmann method. The results showed that there are three main origins of inflation. In fact, the first origin is the fiscal policy adopted by Tunisia, particularly after revolution. The second origin is the increase of monetary variables. Finally, informal economy played an important role in inflation.

Keywords: inflation, consumer price index, informal, gutmann method, ARDL model

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2581 Dividend Payout and Capital Structure: A Family Firm Perspective

Authors: Abhinav Kumar Rajverma, Arun Kumar Misra, Abhijeet Chandra

Abstract:

Family involvement in business is universal across countries, with varying characteristics. Firms of developed economies have diffused ownership structure; however, that of emerging markets have concentrated ownership structure, having resemblance with that of family firms. Optimization of dividend payout and leverage are very crucial for firm’s valuation. This paper studies dividend paying behavior of National Stock Exchange listed Indian firms from financial year 2007 to 2016. The final sample consists of 422 firms and of these more than 49% (207) are family firms. Results reveal that family firms pay lower dividend and are more leveraged compared to non-family firms. This unique data set helps to understand dividend behavior and capital structure of sample firms over a long-time period and across varying family ownership concentration. Using panel regression models, this paper examines factors affecting dividend payout and capital structure and establishes a link between the two using Two-stage Least Squares regression model. Profitability shows a positive impact on dividend and negative impact on leverage, confirming signaling and pecking order theory. Further, findings support bankruptcy theory as firm size has a positive relation with dividend and leverage and volatility shows a negative relation with both dividend and leverage. Findings are also consistent with agency theory, family ownership concentration has negative relation with both dividend payments and leverage. Further, the impact of family ownership control confirms the similar finding. The study further reveals that firms with high family ownership concentration (family control) do have an impact on determining the level of private benefits. Institutional ownership is not significant for dividend payments. However, it shows significant negative relation with leverage for both family and non-family firms. Dividend payout and leverage show mixed association with each other. This paper provides evidence of how varying level of family ownership concentration and ownership control influences the dividend policy and capital structure of firms in an emerging market like India and it can have significant contribution towards understanding and formulating corporate dividend policy decisions and capital structure for emerging economies, where majority of firms exhibit behavior of family firm.

Keywords: dividend, family firms, leverage, ownership structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
2580 Empirical Investigation of Barriers to Industrial Energy Conservation Measures in the Manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises (SME's) of Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Tahir Hassan, Stas Burek, Muhammad Asif, Mohamed Emad

Abstract:

Industrial sector in Pakistan accounts for 25% of total energy consumption in the country. The performance of this sector has been severely affected due to the adverse effect of current energy crises in the country. Energy conservation potentials of Pakistan’s industrial sectors through energy management can save wasted energy which would ultimately leads to economic and environmental benefits. However due to lack of financial incentives of energy efficiency and absence of energy benchmarking within same industrial sectors are some of the main challenges in the implementation of energy management. In Pakistan, this area has not been adequately explored, and there is a lack of focus on the need for industrial energy efficiency and proper management. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the current energy management performance of Pakistani industrial sector and empirical investigation of the existence of various barriers to industrial energy efficiency. Data was collected from the respondents of 192 small and medium-sized enterprises (SME’s) of Pakistan i.e. foundries, textile, plastic industries, light engineering, auto and spare parts and ceramic manufacturers and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Current energy management performance of manufacturing SME’s in Pakistan has been evaluated by employing two significant indicators, ‘Energy Management Matrix’ and ‘pay-off criteria’, with modified approach. Using the energy management matrix, energy management profiles of overall industry and the individual sectors have been drawn to assess the energy management performance and identify the weak and strong areas as well. Results reveal that, energy management practices in overall surveyed industries are at very low level. Energy management profiles drawn against each sector suggest that performance of textile sector is better among all the surveyed manufacturing SME’s. The empirical barriers to industrial energy efficiency have also been ranked according to the overall responses. The results further reveal that there is a significant relationship exists among the industrial size, sector type and nature of barriers to industrial energy efficiency for the manufacturing SME’s in Pakistan. The findings of this study may help the industries and policy makers in Pakistan to formulate a sustainable energy policy to support industrial energy efficiency keeping in view the actual existing energy efficiency scenario in the industrial sector.

Keywords: barriers, energy conservation, energy management profile, environment, manufacturing SME's of Pakistan

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2579 Macroeconomic Implications of Artificial Intelligence on Unemployment in Europe

Authors: Ahmad Haidar

Abstract:

Modern economic systems are characterized by growing complexity, and addressing their challenges requires innovative approaches. This study examines the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment in Europe from a macroeconomic perspective, employing data modeling techniques to understand the relationship between AI integration and labor market dynamics. To understand the AI-unemployment nexus comprehensively, this research considers factors such as sector-specific AI adoption, skill requirements, workforce demographics, and geographical disparities. The study utilizes a panel data model, incorporating data from European countries over the last two decades, to explore the potential short-term and long-term effects of AI implementation on unemployment rates. In addition to investigating the direct impact of AI on unemployment, the study also delves into the potential indirect effects and spillover consequences. It considers how AI-driven productivity improvements and cost reductions might influence economic growth and, in turn, labor market outcomes. Furthermore, it assesses the potential for AI-induced changes in industrial structures to affect job displacement and creation. The research also highlights the importance of policy responses in mitigating potential negative consequences of AI adoption on unemployment. It emphasizes the need for targeted interventions such as skill development programs, labor market regulations, and social safety nets to enable a smooth transition for workers affected by AI-related job displacement. Additionally, the study explores the potential role of AI in informing and transforming policy-making to ensure more effective and agile responses to labor market challenges. In conclusion, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic implications of AI on unemployment in Europe, highlighting the importance of understanding the nuanced relationships between AI adoption, economic growth, and labor market outcomes. By shedding light on these relationships, the study contributes valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and researchers, enabling them to make informed decisions in navigating the complex landscape of AI-driven economic transformation.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, unemployment, macroeconomic analysis, european labor market

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2578 Importance of Human Resources Training in an Information Age

Authors: A. Serap Fırat

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to display conceptually the relationship and interaction between matter of human resources training and the information age. Fast development from industrial community to an information community has occurred and organizations have been seeking ways to overcome this change. Human resources policy and human capital with enhanced competence will have direct impact on work performance; therefore, this paper deals with the increased importance of human resource management due to the fact that it nurtures human capital. Researching and scanning are used as a method in this study. Both local and foreign literature and expert views are employed -as much as one could be- in the making of the theoretical framework of this study.

Keywords: human resources, information age, education, organization, occupation

Procedia PDF Downloads 365
2577 Issues and Challenges of Information and Communication Technology Adoption and Application for Business-Related Performance among Agro-Based Small and Medium Entrepreneurs in the State of Selangor, Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Nizam Osman

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This study explores issues and challenges of information and communication technology (ICT) adoption and application for business-related performance of Agro-based small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Globally, SMEs have championed the socio-economic development of nations across the globe, including Malaysia. Thus, the objectives of this study explore issues and challenges of agro-based SMEs' adoption and usage of ICT, the business-related performance of SMEs via the adoption of ICT, and the impact of incentives on SMEs' adoption and use of ICT. The study was conducted in Selangor, Malaysia. A qualitative research approach was deployed for the study. Data for the study emanated from semi-structured interviews and field note observation of 14 informants who are registered as small-scale business owners and operators. Based on thematic analysis, data were triangulated to ensure consistency and validation of findings for the study. Findings revealed that SMEs are faced with a lack of funding, low expertise, and lack of storage, leading to an unsustainable supply of goods and services. Although effective communication, ease of business activities/transactions, and information search by way of research were among the business performance experienced by SMEs' adoption of ICT. Further findings showed that loan conditions and personal and business interests hindered SMEs' reception and access to programs, schemes, and incentives geared at aiding the continuous growth and development of agro-based SMEs. The study suggests the need for policy change in terms of diversification of channels of funding and access to funds to enable credit guarantee schemes and peer or community-based financing. Consequently, the study recommends the engagement of SMEs in policy decision-making to ascertain the type of incentives relevant to their business operations. Likewise, from a technological standpoint, the study suggests the expansion of the framework of technology acceptance with focuses on affordability, type of users, and level of usage.

Keywords: ICT adoption, business related performance, agro-based SMEs, ICT application for SMEs

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2576 On the Efficiency of the Algerian FRR Sovereign Fund

Authors: Abdelkader Guendouz, Fatima Zohra Adel

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Since about two decades, the Algerian government created a new instrument in the field of its fiscal policy, which is the FRR (Fonds de Régulation des Recettes). The FRR is a sovereign fund, which the initial role was saving the surplus generated by the fixation of a referential oil price to establish the state budget in the aim equilibrium between budgetary incomes and public expenditures. After a while, the government turns to use this instrument in boosting the public investment more than keeping for funding a deficit budget in periods of crisis. This lead to ask some justified questions about the efficiency of this sovereign fund and its real role.

Keywords: FRR sovereign fund, public expenditures, public investment, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
2575 Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to International Recycling Trade Flow

Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

Abstract:

Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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