Search results for: non-linear regression

Authors: Yvette Reisinger

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Relatively little is known about the Arab travel market, especially the outbound travel market from Arab countries in the Middle East. The Kuwaiti travel market is the smallest yet fastest growing in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The Kuwaiti travel market represents a great potential for the international tourism industry. Kuwaiti nationals have a very high spending power due to the Kuwaiti dinar being the highest-valued currency unit in the world. Although Europe, North America, and Asia/Pacific try to attract the Arab tourist market the number of Kuwaiti travellers attracted to these destinations is very low. The success in attracting the Kuwaiti travel market to Western countries must be guided by an analysis of the factors that affect its travel decisions. The objective of the study is to identify major factors that influence Kuwaiti nationals’ intentions to travel to Western countries. A model is developed and empirically tested on a sample of 343 Kuwaiti nationals. A series of regression analyses are run to determine the effects of different factors on Kuwaiti’s travel decisions. A Herman’s single factor test and Durbin-Watson test are used to assess the validity of the regression model. Analysis is controlled for socio-demographics. The results show that the Muslim friendly amenities and destination cognitive image exert significant effects on Kuwaiti nationals’ intentions to travel to Western countries. The study provides a better understanding of the factors that attract Kuwaiti tourists to Western countries. By knowing what encourages Kuwaitis to travel to Western countries marketers can plan and promote these countries accordingly. The study provides a foundation of future empirical research into the Kuwaiti/Arab travel market.

Keywords: Kuwaiti travel market, travel decisions, Western countries

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Authors: A. Myrzabekova, D. Nurmukhamed, K. Nurumov, A. Zhulbarissova

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It is widely believed that stress can affect teachers’ intention to change the workplace. While existing research primarily focuses on the intrinsic sources of stress stemming from the school climate, the current attempt analyzes educational policies as one of the determinants of teacher’s intention to leave schools. In this respect, Kazakhstan presents a unique case since the country endorsed several educational policies which directly impacted teaching and administrative practices within schools. Using Teaching and Learning International Survey 2018 (TALIS) data with the country specific questionnaire, we construct a statistical measure of stress caused by the implementation of educational policies and test its impact on teacher’s intention to leave through the logistic regression. In addition, we control for sociodemographic, professional, and students related covariates while considering the intrinsic dimension of stress stemming from the school climate. Overall, our results suggest that stress caused by the educational policies has a statistically significant positive effect on teachers’ intentions to transfer between schools. Both policy makers and educational scholars could find these results beneficial. For the former careful planning and addressing the negative effects of the educational policies is critical for the sustainability of the educational process. For the latter, accounting for exogenous sources of stress can lead to a more complete understanding of why teachers decide to change their schools.

Keywords: educational policies, Kazakhstani teachers, logistic regression factor analysis, sustainability education TALIS, teacher turnover intention, work stress

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Authors: N. V. Kuznetsov, O. A. Kuznetsova, G. A. Leonov, M. V. Yuldashev, R. V. Yuldashev

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Nonlinear analysis of the phase locked loop (PLL)-based circuits is a challenging task. Thus, the simulation is widely used for their study. In this work, we consider a mathematical model of the optical Costas loop and demonstrate the limitations of simulation approach related to the existence of so-called hidden oscillations in the phase space of the model.

Keywords: optical Costas loop, mathematical model, simulation, hidden oscillation

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Authors: Bohsiu Wu

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Among serious crimes, child homicide is a rather rare event. However, the killing of children stirs up a special type of emotion in society that pales other criminal acts. This study examines the relevancy of three possible community-level explanations for child homicide: social deprivation, female empowerment, and social isolation. The social deprivation hypothesis posits that child homicide results from lack of resources in communities. The female empowerment hypothesis argues that a higher female status translates into a higher level of capability to prevent child homicide. Finally, the social isolation hypothesis regards child homicide as a result of lack of social connectivity. Child homicide data, aggregated by US postal ZIP codes in California from 1990 to 1999, were analyzed with a negative binomial regression. The results of the negative binomial analysis demonstrate that social deprivation is the most salient and consistent predictor among all other factors in explaining child homicide victimization at the ZIP-code level. Both social isolation and female labor force participation are weak predictors of child homicide victimization across communities. Further, results from the negative binomial regression show that it is the communities with a higher, not lower, degree of female labor force participation that are associated with a higher count of child homicide. It is possible that poor communities with a higher level of female employment have a lesser capacity to provide the necessary care and protection for the children. Policies aiming at reducing social deprivation and strengthening female empowerment possess the potential to reduce child homicide in the community.

Keywords: child homicide, deprivation, empowerment, isolation

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Etienne Provencal, David L. St-Pierre

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A facility exploiting only electronic gambling machines (EGMs) opened in 2007 in Quebec City, Canada under the name of Salons de Jeux du Québec (SdjQ). This facility is one of the first worldwide to rely on that business model. This paper models the performance of such EGMs. The interest from a managerial point of view is to identify the variables that can be controlled or influenced so that a comprehensive model can help improve the overall performance of the business. The EGM individual performance model contains eight different variables under study (Game Title, Progressive jackpot, Bonus Round, Minimum Coin-in, Maximum Coin-in, Denomination, Slant Top and Position). Using data from Quebec City’s SdjQ, a linear regression analysis explains 90.80% of the EGM performance. Moreover, results show a behavior slightly different than that of a casino. The addition of GameTitle as a factor to predict the EGM performance is one of the main contributions of this paper. The choice of the game (GameTitle) is very important. Games having better position do not have significantly better performance than games located elsewhere on the gaming floor. Progressive jackpots have a positive and significant effect on the individual performance of EGMs. The impact of BonusRound on the dependent variable is significant but negative. The effect of Denomination is significant but weakly negative. As expected, the Language of an EGMS does not impact its individual performance. This paper highlights some possible improvements by indicating which features are performing well. Recommendations are given to increase the performance of the EGMs performance.

Keywords: EGM, linear regression, model prediction, slot operations

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Authors: Alba Barbara-i-Molinero, Rosalia Cascon Pereira, Ana Beatriz Hernandez Lara

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Our general motivation in undertaking this study is to propose alternative measures to lighten students experienced tensions during the transitions from high school to higher education based on the concept of professional identity strength. In order to do so, we measured the influence that three different factors external motivational conditionals, educational experience conditionals and personal motivation conditionals exerted over students’ professional identity strength and proposed the measures considering the obtained results. By using hierarchical regression analysis we addressed this issue, across disciplines and bachelor degrees, allowing us to gain also deeper insight into first-year university students PID. Our findings suggest that students’ from the different disciplines are influenced by personal motivational conditionals; while students from sciences are also influenced by external motivational conditionals. Based on the obtained results we propose three different alternative educational and recruitment strategies which aim to increase students’ professional identity strength and reduce the tensions generated during high school-university transitions. From this study theoretical contributions regarding the differences in the influence of these factors on students from different bachelor degrees arise; and practical implications for universities, derived from the proposed strategies.

Keywords: professional identity, transitions, higher education, strategies

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Authors: Seyedtaghi Mirmohammadi, J. Yazdani, S. M. Asadi, M. Rokni, A. Toosi

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There are many indoor air quality studies with an emphasis on indoor particulate matters (PM2.5) monitoring. Whereas, there is a lake of data about indoor PM2.5 concentrations in rural area schools (especially in classrooms), since preliminary children are assumed to be more defenseless to health hazards and spend a large part of their time in classrooms. The objective of this study was indoor PM2.5 concentration quality assessment. Fifteen preliminary schools by time-series sampling were selected to evaluate the indoor air quality in the rural district of Sari city, Iran. Data on indoor air climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were measured by a hygrometer and thermometer. Particulate matters (PM2.5) were collected and assessed by Real Time Dust Monitor, (MicroDust Pro, Casella, UK). The mean indoor PM2.5 concentration in the studied classrooms was 135µg/m3 in average. The multiple linear regression revealed that a correlation between PM2.5 concentration and relative humidity, distance from city center and classroom size. Classroom size yields reasonable negative relationship, the PM2.5 concentration was ranged from 65 to 540μg/m3 and statistically significant at 0.05 level and the relative humidity was ranged from 70 to 85% and dry bulb temperature ranged from 28 to 29°C were statistically significant at 0.035 and 0.05 level, respectively. A statistical predictive model was obtained from multiple regressions modeling for PM2.5 and indoor psychrometric parameters.

Keywords: particulate matters, classrooms, regression, concentration, humidity

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Authors: Remzi Yildirim, Fatih. V. Çelebi, H. Haldun Göktaş, A. Behzat Şahin

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This study is about a single component cylindrical structured lens with gradient curve which we used for bending laser beams. It operates under atmospheric conditions and bends the laser beam independent of temperature, pressure, polarity, polarization, magnetic field, electric field, radioactivity, and gravity. A single piece cylindrical lens that can bend laser beams is invented. Lenses are made of transparent, tinted or colored glasses and used for undermining or absorbing the energy of the laser beams.

Keywords: laser, bending, lens, light, nonlinear optics

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Authors: Remzi Yildirim, Fatih V. Çelebi, H. Haldun Göktaş, A. Behzat Şahin

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This study is about a single component cylindrical structured lens with gradient curve which we used for bending laser beams. It operates under atmospheric conditions and bends the laser beam independent of temperature, pressure, polarity, polarization, magnetic field, electric field, radioactivity, and gravity. A single piece cylindrical lens that can bend laser beams is invented. Lenses are made of transparent, tinted or colored glasses and used for undermining or absorbing the energy of the laser beams.

Keywords: laser, bending, lens, light, nonlinear optics

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Mona Shawky, Khaled M. Elsheikh, Heba M. Darwish, Eman Abd El Elsamea

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Seams are the basic component in the structure of any apparel. The seam quality of the garment is a term that indicates both the aesthetic and functional performance of the garment. Seam slippage is one of the important properties that determine garment performance. Lightweight fabrics are preferred for their aesthetic properties. Since seam slippage is one of the most occurable faults for woven garments, in this study, a design of experiment of the following sewing parameters (three levels of needle size, three levels of stitch density, three levels of the seam allowance, two levels of sewing thread count, and two fabric types) was used to obtain the effect of the interaction between different sewing parameters on-seam slippage force. Two lightweight polyester woven fabrics with different constructions were used with lock stitch 301 to perform this study. Regression equations which can predict seam slippage force in both warp and weft directions were concluded. It was found that fabric type has a significant positive effect on seam slippage force in the warp direction, while it has a significant negative effect on seam slippage force on weft direction. Also, the interaction between needle size and stitch density has a significant positive effect on seam slippage force on warp direction, while the interaction between stitch density and seam allowance has a negative effect on seam slippage force in the weft direction.

Keywords: needle size, regression equation, seam allowance, seam slippage, stitch density

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Authors: Lovro Štefan

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The main purpose of the present study was to investigate the associations between the overweight/obesity status and lifestyle factors. In this cross-sectional study, participants were 1950 urban secondary-school students (54.7% of female students) aged 17-18 years old. Dependent variable was body-mass index status derived from self-reported height and weight. The outcome was binarised, where participants with value <25 kg/m2 were collapsed into „normal“, while those ≥25 kg/m2 into „overweight/obesity“ category. Independent variables were gender, type of school, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, self-rated health, self-perceived socioeconomic status and psychological distress. The associations between the dependent and independent variables were analyzed by using multiple logistic regression analysis. In the univariate model, being overweight/obese was significantly associated with being a male student (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.42), attending a vocational school (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.42 to 2.48), not meeting the recommendations for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (OR 0.44; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.88), more time spending in sedentary behaviour (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.19), poor self-rated health (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.56) and lower socioeconomic status (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.48 to 0.84). In the multivariate model, the same associations occured between the dependent and independent variable. In both models, psychological distress was not associated with being overweight/obese. In conclusion, our findings suggest, that lifestyle factors are independently associated with body-mass index

Keywords: body mass index, secondary-school students, Croatia, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, logistic regression

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Authors: Sandeep Thakur, Ismail Mondal, Phani Bhusan Ghosh, Papita Das, Tarun Kumar De

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Sundarbans Reserve forest of India has been undergoing major transformations in the recent past owing to population pressure and related changes. This has brought about major changes in the spatial landscape of the region especially in the western parts. This study attempts to assess the impacts of the Landcover changes on the mangrove habitats. Time series imageries of Landsat were used to analyze the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) patterns over the western parts of Indian Sundarbans forest in order to assess the heath of the mangroves in the region. The images were subjected to Land use Land cover (LULC) classification using sub-pixel classification techniques in ERDAS Imagine software and the changes were mapped. The spatial proliferation of aquaculture farms during the study period was also mapped. A multivariate regression analysis was carried out between the obtained NDVI values and the LULC classes. Similarly, the observed meteorological data sets (time series rainfall and minimum and maximum temperature) were also statistically correlated for regression. The study demonstrated the application of NDVI in assessing the environmental status of mangroves as the relationship between the changes in the environmental variables and the remote sensing based indices felicitate an efficient evaluation of environmental variables, which can be used in the coastal zone monitoring and development processes.

Keywords: aquaculture farms, LULC, Mangrove, NDVI

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Authors: B. G. Abiona, A. A. Onaseso, T. D. Odetayo, J. Yila, O. E. Fapojuwo, K. G. Adeosun

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This study determines the perceived effects of work-family balance on employees’ job satisfaction among Extension Agents in the Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) in southwest Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 256 respondents for the study. Data on personal characteristics, work-family balance domain, and job satisfaction were collected. The collected data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square, Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC), multiple linear regression, and Student T-test. Results revealed that the mean age of the respondents was 40 years; the majority (59.3%) of the respondents were male, and slightly above half (51.6%) of the respondents had MSc as their highest academic qualification. Findings revealed that turnover intention (x ̅ = 3.20) and work-role conflict (x ̅ = 3.06) were the major perceived work-family balance domain in the studied areas. Further, the result showed that the respondents have a high (79%) level of job satisfaction. Multiple linear regression revealed that job involvement (ß=0.167, p<0.01) and work-role conflict (ß= -0.221, p<0.05) contributed significantly to employees’ level of job satisfaction. The results of the Student T-test revealed a significant difference in the perceived work-family balance domain (t = 0.43, p<0.05) between the two studied areas. The study concluded that work-role conflict among employees causes work-family imbalance and, therefore, negatively affects employees’ job satisfaction. The definition of job design among the respondents that will create a balance between work and family is highly recommended.

Keywords: work-life, conflict, job satisfaction, extension agent

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Awais

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Pakistan is a country which is gifted by naturally abundant resources these resources are a pioneer towards a prospect and developed country. Pakistan is the fourth largest exporter of the textile in the world and with the passage of time the competitiveness of these exports is subject to a decline. With a lot of International players in the textile world like China, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, Pakistan needs to put up a lot of effort to compete with these countries. This research paper would determine the impact of Foreign Direct Investment upon technological diffusion and that how significantly it may be affecting on export performance of the country. It would also demonstrate that with the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, technological diffusion, strong property rights, and using different policy tools, export competitiveness of the country could be improved. The research has been carried out using time series data from 1995 to 2013 and the results have been estimated by using competing Econometrics modes such as Robust regression and Generalized least squares so that to consolidate the impact of the Foreign Investments and Technological diffusion upon export competitiveness comprehensively. Distributed Lag model has also been used to encompass the lagged effect of policy tools variables used by the government. Model estimates entail that 'FDI' and 'Technological Diffusion' do have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the exports of Pakistan. It may also be inferred that competitiveness of Textile Sector requires integrated policy framework, primarily including the reduction in interest rates, providing subsides, and manufacturing of value added products.

Keywords: high technology export, robust regression, patents, technological diffusion, export competitiveness

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Authors: Mohd. A. M. Rahim, Yahaya Hassan, Mathumalar L. Fahrni

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Second line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen is used when patients fail their first line regimen. There are many factors such as non-adherence, drug resistance as well as virological and immunological failure that lead to second line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen treatment failure. This study was aimed at determining predictor factors to treatment failure with second line HAART and analyzing median survival time. An observational, retrospective study was conducted in Sungai Buloh Hospital (HSB) to assess current status of HIV patients treated with second line HAART regimen. Convenience sampling was used and 104 patients were included based on the study’s inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data was collected for six months i.e. from July until December 2013. Data was then analysed using SPSS version 18. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to measure median survival times and predictor factors for treatment failure. The study population consisted mainly of male subjects, aged 30-45 years, who were heterosexual, and had HIV infection for less than 6 years. The most common second line HAART regimen given was lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-based combination. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients on LPV/r demonstrated longer median survival times than patients on indinavir/ritonavir (IDV/r) based combination (p<0.001). The commonest reason for a treatment to fail with second line HAART was non-adherence. Based on Cox regression analysis, other predictor factors for treatment failure with second line HAART regimen were age and mode of HIV transmission.

Keywords: adherence, antiretroviral therapy, second line, treatment failure

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Authors: Muhammad Usman, Munir Ahmed

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The demand of high-rise buildings has grown fast during the past decades. The design of these buildings by using RC core wall have been widespread nowadays in many countries. The RC core wall (RCCW) buildings encompasses central core wall and boundary columns joined through post tension slab at different floor levels. The core wall often provides greater stiffness as compared to the collective stiffness of the boundary columns. Hence, the core wall dominantly resists lateral loading i.e. wind or earthquake load. Non-linear response history analysis (NLRHA) procedure is the finest seismic design procedure of the times for designing high-rise buildings. The modern design tools for nonlinear response history analysis and performance based design has provided more confidence to design these structures for high-rise buildings. NLRHA requires selection and scaling of ground motions to match design spectrum for site specific conditions. Designers use several techniques for scaling ground motion records (time series). Time domain and frequency domain scaling are most commonly used which comprises their own benefits and drawbacks. Due to lengthy process of NLRHA, application of only one technique is conceivable. To the best of author’s knowledge, no consensus on the best procedures for the selection and scaling of the ground motions is available in literature. This research aims to provide the finest ground motion scaling technique specifically for designing 40 story high-rise RCCW buildings. Seismic response of 40 story RCCW building is checked by applying both the frequency domain and time domain scaling. Variable sites are selected in three critical seismic zones of Pakistan. The results indicates that there is extensive variation in seismic response of building for these scaling. There is still a need to build a consensus on the subjected research by investigating variable sites and buildings heights.

Keywords: 40-storied RC core wall building, nonlinear response history analysis, ground motions, time domain scaling, frequency domain scaling

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Authors: Keisuke Takahata, Hiroshi Suetsugu

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Forest height is an important parameter for forest biomass estimation, and precise elevation data is essential for accurate forest height estimation. There are several globally or nationally available digital elevation models (DEMs) like SRTM and ASTER. However, its accuracy is reported to be low particularly in mountainous areas where there are closed canopy or steep slope. Recently, space-borne LiDAR, such as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), have started to provide sparse but accurate ground elevation and canopy height estimates. Several studies have reported the high degree of accuracy in their elevation products on their exact footprints, while it is not clear how this sparse information can be used for wider area. In this study, we developed a digital terrain model correction algorithm by spatially interpolating the difference between existing DEMs and GEDI elevation products by using Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. The result shows that our GP-based methodology can reduce the mean bias of the elevation data from 3.7m to 0.3m when we use airborne LiDAR-derived elevation information as ground truth. Our algorithm is also capable of quantifying the elevation data uncertainty, which is critical requirement for biomass inventory. Upcoming satellite-LiDAR missions, like MOLI (Multi-footprint Observation Lidar and Imager), are expected to contribute to the more accurate digital terrain model generation.

Keywords: digital terrain model, satellite LiDAR, gaussian processes, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: M. Derraz, M.Farhaoui

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In the water treatment processes, the determination of the optimal dose of the coagulant is an issue of particular concern. Coagulant dosing is correlated to raw water quality which depends on some parameters (turbidity, ph, temperature, conductivity…). The objective of this study is to provide water treatment operators with a tool that enables to predict and replace, sometimes, the manual method (jar testing) used in this plant to predict the optimum coagulant dose. The model is constructed using actual process data for a water treatment plant located in the middle of Morocco (Meknes).

Keywords: coagulation process, aluminum sulfate, model, coagulant dose

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Authors: Jyoti Srivastava, Sandhya S. Kaushik, Mallika Tewari, Hari S. Shukla

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Little information is available about the development of psychological well being over time among women who have been undergoing treatment for breast cancer. The aim of this study was to identify the trajectories of depression anxiety and stress among women with early-stage breast cancer. Of the 48 Indian women with newly diagnosed early-stage breast cancer recruited from surgical oncology unit, 39 completed an interview and were assessed for depression anxiety and stress (Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-DASS 21) before their first course of chemotherapy (baseline) and follow up interviews at 3, 6 and 9 months thereafter. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify distinct trajectories of Depression Anxiety and Stress symptoms. Logistic Regression analysis was used to evaluate the characteristics of women in distinct groups. Most women showed mild to moderate level of depression and anxiety (68%) while normal to mild level of stress (71%). But one in 11 women was chronically anxious (9%) and depressed (9%). Young age, having a partner, shorter education and receiving chemotherapy but not radiotherapy might characterize women whose psychological symptoms remain strong nine months after diagnosis. By looking beyond the mean, it was found that several socio-demographic and treatment factors characterized the women whose depression, anxiety and stress level remained severe even nine months after diagnosis. The results suggest that support provided to cancer patients should have a special focus on a relatively small group of patient most in need.

Keywords: psychological well being, growth mixture modeling, logistic regression analysis, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Luis F. Caballero-castro, Dirsa Feliciano, Daniela Novoa, Orlando Arroyo, Jesús D. Villalba-morales

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Colombia faces a critical challenge in seismic resilience due to the prevalence of informal housing, which constitutes approximately 70% of residential structures. More than 10 million Colombians (20% of the population), live in homes susceptible to collapse in the event of an earthquake. This, combined with the fact that 83% of the population is in intermediate and high seismic hazard areas, has brought serious consequences to the country. These consequences became evident during the 1999 Armenia earthquake, which affected nearly 100,000 properties and represented economic losses equivalent to 1.88% of that year's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite previous efforts to reinforce informal housing through methods like externally reinforced masonry walls, alternatives related to seismic protection systems (SPDs), such as Buckling-Restrained Braces (BRB), have not yet been explored in the country. BRBs are reinforcement elements capable of withstanding both compression and tension, making them effective in enhancing the lateral stiffness of structures. In this study, the use of low-cost and easily installable BRBs for the retrofit of informal housing in Colombia was evaluated, considering the economic limitations of the communities. For this purpose, a case study was selected involving an informally constructed dwelling in the country, from which field information on its structural characteristics and construction materials was collected. Based on the gathered information, nonlinear models with and without BRBs were created, and their seismic performance was analyzed and compared through incremental static (pushover) and nonlinear dynamic analyses. In the first analysis, the capacity curve was identified, showcasing the sequence of failure events occurring from initial yielding to structural collapse. In the second case, the model underwent nonlinear dynamic analyses using a set of seismic records consistent with the country's seismic hazard. Based on the results, fragility curves were calculated to evaluate the probability of failure of the informal housings before and after the intervention with BRBs, providing essential information about their effectiveness in reducing seismic vulnerability. The results indicate that low-cost BRBs can significantly increase the capacity of informal housing to withstand earthquakes. The dynamic analysis revealed that retrofit structures experienced lower displacements and deformations, enhancing the safety of residents and the seismic performance of informally constructed houses. In other words, the use of low-cost BRBs in the retrofit of informal housing in Colombia is a promising strategy for improving structural safety in seismic-prone areas. This study emphasizes the importance of seeking affordable and practical solutions to address seismic risk in vulnerable communities in earthquake-prone regions in Colombia and serves as a model for addressing similar challenges of informal housing worldwide.

Keywords: buckling-restrained braces, fragility curves, informal housing, incremental dynamic analysis, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study examines whether the Taiwan’s public debt is sustainable utilizing an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s public debt appears as a nonlinear series and is stationary in regime 1 but not in regime 2. This result implies that while Taiwan’s public debt was mostly sustainable over the 1996 to 2013 period examined in the study, it may no longer be sustainable in the most recent two years as the public debt ratio has increased cumulatively to 3.618%.

Keywords: nonlinearity, public debt, sustainability, threshold autoregressive model

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Authors: Fangzheng Li, Xiong Li

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Significant differences in urban greening have occurred in Chinese cities, which accompanied with China's rapid urbanization. However, few studies focused on the spatial differentiation of urban greening in China with large amounts of data. The spatial differentiation pattern, spatial correlation characteristics and the distribution shape of urban green space ratio, urban green coverage rate and public green area per capita were calculated and analyzed, using Global and Local Moran's I using data from 289 cities in 2014. We employed Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model to assess the impacts of urbanization process on urban greening of China. Then we used Geographically Weighted Regression to estimate the spatial variations of the impacts. The results showed: 1. a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in urban greening values, and the differentiation patterns were featured by the administrative grade and the spatial agglomeration simultaneously; 2. it revealed that urbanization has a negative correlation with urban greening in Chinese cities. Among the indices, the the proportion of secondary industry, urbanization rate, population and the scale of urban land use has significant negative correlation with the urban greening of China. Automobile density and per capita Gross Domestic Product has no significant impact. The results of GWR modeling showed that the relationship between urbanization and urban greening was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggested significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on urban greening.

Keywords: China’s urbanization, geographically weighted regression, spatial differentiation pattern, urban greening

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Authors: Joseph Sello Kau, Elias Mashayamombe, Brian Washington Madinkana, Cynthia Ngwane

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This paper presents the results for the statistical (stepwise linear regression and multiple regression) analyses, carried out on a number of crops in order to evaluate how the decision for crop choice affect the level of farm income generated by the farmers participating in the High Value Crop production (referred to as the HVC). The goal of the HVC is to encourage farmers cultivate fruit crops. The farmers received planting material from different extension agencies, together with other complementary packages such as fertilizer, garden tools, water tanks etc. During the surveys, it was discovered that a significant number of farmers were cultivating traditional crops even when their plot sizes were small. Traditional crops are competing for resources with high value crops. The results of the analyses show that farmers cultivating fruit crops, maize and potatoes were generating high income than those cultivating spinach and cabbage. High farm income is associated with plot size, access to social grants and gender. Choice for a crop is influenced by the availability of planting material and the market potential for the crop. Extension agencies providing the planting materials stand a good chance of having farmers follow their directives. As a recommendation, for the farmers to cultivate more of the HVCs, the ARC must intensify provision of fruit trees.

Keywords: farm income, nature of extension services, type of crops cultivated, fruit crops, cabbage, maize, potato and spinach

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Authors: Chitresh Prasad, Arvind Ramesh, Aditya Virkar, Karan Dholkaria, Vinayak Malhotra

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Solid Propellant Rocket is a rocket that utilises a combination of a solid Oxidizer and a solid Fuel. Success in Solid Rocket Motor design and development depends significantly on knowledge of burning rate behaviour of the selected solid propellant under all motor operating conditions and design limit conditions. Most Solid Motor Rockets consist of the Main Engine, along with multiple Boosters that provide an additional thrust to the space-bound vehicle. Though widely used, they have been eclipsed by Liquid Propellant Rockets, because of their better performance characteristics. The addition of a catalyst such as Iron Oxide, on the other hand, can drastically enhance the performance of a Solid Rocket. This scientific investigation tries to emulate the working of a Solid Rocket using Sparklers and Energized Candles, with a central Energized Candle acting as the Main Engine and surrounding Sparklers acting as the Booster. The Energized Candle is made of Paraffin Wax, with Magnesium filings embedded in it’s wick. The Sparkler is made up of 45% Barium Nitrate, 35% Iron, 9% Aluminium, 10% Dextrin and the remaining composition consists of Boric Acid. The Magnesium in the Energized Candle, and the combination of Iron and Aluminium in the Sparkler, act as catalysts and enhance the burn rates of both materials. This combustion of Metallized Propellants has an influence over the regression rate of the subject candle. The experimental parameters explored here are Separation Distance, Systematically varying Configuration and Layout Symmetry. The major performance parameter under observation is the Regression Rate of the Energized Candle. The rate of regression is significantly affected by the orientation and configuration of the sparklers, which usually act as heat sources for the energized candle. The Overall Efficiency of any engine is factorised by the thermal and propulsive efficiencies. Numerous efforts have been made to improve one or the other. This investigation focuses on the Orientation of Rocket Motor Design to maximize their Overall Efficiency. The primary objective is to analyse the Flame Spread Rate variations of the energized candle, which resembles the solid rocket propellant used in the first stage of rocket operation thereby affecting the Specific Impulse values in a Rocket, which in turn have a deciding impact on their Time of Flight. Another objective of this research venture is to determine the effectiveness of the key controlling parameters explored. This investigation also emulates the exhaust gas interactions of the Solid Rocket through concurrent ignition of the Energized Candle and Sparklers, and their behaviour is analysed. Modern space programmes intend to explore the universe outside our solar system. To accomplish these goals, it is necessary to design a launch vehicle which is capable of providing incessant propulsion along with better efficiency for vast durations. The main motivation of this study is to enhance Rocket performance and their Overall Efficiency through better designing and optimization techniques, which will play a crucial role in this human conquest for knowledge.

Keywords: design modifications, improving overall efficiency, metallized combustion, regression rate variations

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Authors: B. Padmaja, V. V. Rama Prasad, K. V. N. Sunitha, E. Krishna Rao Patro

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Stress is a psychological condition that reduces the quality of sleep and affects every facet of life. Constant exposure to stress is detrimental not only for mind but also body. Nevertheless, to cope with stress, one should first identify it. This paper provides an effective method for the cognitive stress level detection by using data provided from a physical activity tracker device Fitbit. This device gathers people’s daily activities of food, weight, sleep, heart rate, and physical activities. In this paper, four major stressors like physical activities, sleep patterns, working hours and change in heart rate are used to assess the stress levels of individuals. The main motive of this system is to use machine learning approach in stress detection with the help of Smartphone sensor technology. Individually, the effect of each stressor is evaluated using logistic regression and then combined model is built and assessed using variants of ordinal logistic regression models like logit, probit and complementary log-log. Then the quality of each model is evaluated using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and probit is assessed as the more suitable model for our dataset. This system is experimented and evaluated in a real time environment by taking data from adults working in IT and other sectors in India. The novelty of this work lies in the fact that stress detection system should be less invasive as possible for the users.

Keywords: physical activity tracker, sleep pattern, working hours, heart rate, smartphone sensor

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Authors: Saem Lee, Thanh Nguyen, Hio-Jung Shin, Thomas Koellner

Abstract:

Land-use management has an influence on the provision of ecosystem service in dynamic, agricultural landscapes. Agricultural land use is important for maintaining the productivity and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. However, in Korea, intensive farming activities in this highland agricultural zone, the upper stream of Soyang has led to contaminated soil caused by over-use pesticides and fertilizers. This has led to decrease in water and soil quality, which has consequences for ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Conventional farming has still high percentage in this area and there is no special measure to prevent low water quality caused by farming activities. Therefore, the adoption of environmentally friendly farming has been considered one of the alternatives that lead to improved water quality and increase in biomass production. Concurrently, farm households with environmentally friendly farming have occupied still low rates. Therefore, our research involved a farm household survey spanning conventional farming, the farm in transition and organic farming in Soyang watershed. Another purpose of our research was to compare economic advantage of the farmers adopting environmentally friendly farming and non-adaptors and to investigate the different factors by logistic regression analysis with socio-economic and benefit-cost ratio variables. The results found that farmers with environmentally friendly farming tended to be younger than conventional farming and farmer in transition. They are similar in terms of gender which was predominately male. Farmers with environmentally friendly farming were more educated and had less farming experience than conventional farming and farmer in transition. Based on the benefit-cost analysis, total costs that farm in transition farmers spent for one year are about two times as much as the sum of costs in environmentally friendly farming. The benefit of organic farmers was assessed with 2,800 KRW per household per year. In logistic regression, the factors having statistical significance are subsidy and district, residence period and benefit-cost ratio. And district and residence period have the negative impact on the practice of environmentally friendly farming techniques. The results of our research make a valuable contribution to provide important information to describe Korean policy-making for agricultural and water management and to consider potential approaches to policy that would substantiate ways beneficial for sustainable resource management.

Keywords: organic farming, logistic regression, profitability, agricultural land-use

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Authors: B. B. Siswanto, A. Halimi, K. M. H. J. Tandayu, C. Abdillah, F. Nanda , E. Chandra

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Nowadays, modern cardiac biomarkers, such as ST2 and NT-proBNP, have important roles in predicting morbidity and mortality in heart failure patients. Abnormalities of serum electrolytes, sepsis or infection, and deteriorating renal function will worsen the conditions of patients with heart failure. It is intriguing to know whether cardiac biomarkers elevations are affected by laboratory findings in heart failure patients. We recruited 65 patients from the heart failure clinic in NCVC Harapan Kita in 2014-2015. All of them have consented for laboratory examination, including cardiac biomarkers. The findings were recorded in our Research and Development Centre and analyzed using linear regression to find whether there is a relationship between laboratory findings (sodium, potassium, creatinine, and leukocytes) and ST2 or NT-proBNP. From 65 patients, 26.9% of them are female, and 73.1% are male, 69.4% patients classified as NYHA I-II and 31.6% as NYHA III-IV. The mean age is 55.7+11.4 years old; mean sodium level is 136.1+6.5 mmol/l; mean potassium level is 4.7+1.9 mmol/l; mean leukocyte count is 9184.7+3622.4 /ul; mean creatinine level is 1.2+0.5 mg/dl. From linear regression logistics, the relationship between NT-proBNP and sodium level (p<0.001), as well as leukocyte count (p=0.002) are significant, while NT-proBNP and potassium level (p=0.05), as well as creatinine level (p=0.534) are not significant. The relationship between ST2 and sodium level (p=0.501), potassium level (p=0.76), leukocyte level (p=0.897), and creatinine level (p=0.817) are not significant. To conclude, laboratory findings are more sensitive in predicting NT-proBNP elevation than ST2 elevation. Larger studies are needed to prove that NT-proBNP correlation with laboratory findings is more superior than ST2.

Keywords: heart failure, laboratory, NT-proBNP, ST2

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