Search results for: estimations of probability distributions

Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

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The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Nasim Hossein Hamzeh, Karim Shukurov, Abbas Ranjbar Saadat Abadi, Alaa Mhawish, Christian Opp

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Deserts are the main dust sources in the world. Also, recently driedLake beds have caused environmental problems inthe surrounding areas in the world. In this study, the Urmia Lake was the source of dustfromApril 24 to April 25, 2017.The local dust storm was combined with another large-scale dust storm that originated from Saudi Arabia and Iraq 1-2 days earlier. Synoptic investigation revealed that the severe dust storm was made by a strong Black Sea cyclone and a low-pressure system over the Middle East and Central Iraq in conjunction a high-pressure system and associated with a high gradient contour and a quasi-stationary long-wave trough over the east and south of the Mediterranean Sea. Based on HYSPLIT 72 hours backward and forward trajectories, the most probable dust transport routes to and from the Urmia Lake region are estimated. Using the concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) method based on 24 hours backward and 24 hours forward trajectories, the spatial distributions of potential sources of PM10 observed in the Urmia Lake region on April 23-26, 2017. Also, the vertical profile of dust particles using the WRF-Chem model with two dust schemes showed dust ascending up to 5 km from the lake. Also, the dust schemes outputs shows that the PM10 fluctuating changes are 12 hours earlier than the measured surface PM10 at five air pollution monitoring stations around the Urmia Lake in 23-26 April 2017.

Keywords: dust storm, synoptic investigation, WRF-chem model, urmia lake, lagrangian trajectory

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Authors: Oscar Maina Irungu

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Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mtwapa Town, Kilifi County are at high risk of HIV infection. Probability sample surveys to determine HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa are needed to inform prevention and care services. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among MSM aged 18-24 years old, using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in Mtwapa. Consenting MSM were tested for HIV (fingerstick rapid test). Population-based prevalence and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using RDS Analysis Tool (RDSAT). Results: Among 274 MSM, the median age was 20 years (IQR: 19-23 years). Fifty percent of MSM reported not selling sex, while 13.2 % reported sex work as their “main occupation”, and another 28.4 % reported selling sex in the past two months (but not as their main occupation).Overall HIV prevalence was 19.2 % (CI: 12.2-23.6%). HIV prevalence was higher among MSM who reported sex work as their main occupation (28.3%,CI: 12.1-42.3%) or selling sex in the past two months (26.6 %, CI: 17.2-35.7 %),than among MSM who did not sell sex (11.6%,CI: 7.0-18.1%). Conclusion: HIV prevalence among MSM were high than among Kilifi’s general population aged 15-64 years (8.8%; 2010 KAIS) and highest in male sex workers. Health programs need to address concerns and modify services to meet needs of diverse subgroups of MSM. We recommend continued, periodic surveillance to monitor HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa, and expansion to other areas in Kenya.

Keywords: power point, Kenya, homosexuality, sex

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Sheng-Bo Zhang, Huan-Hao Zhang, Zhi-Hua Chen, Chun Zheng

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In this paper, the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability has been studied numerically by using the high-resolution Roe scheme based on the two-dimensional unsteady Euler equation, which was caused by the interaction between shock wave and the helium circular light gas cylinder with different component distributions. The numerical results further discuss the deformation process of the gas cylinder, the wave structure of the flow field and quantitatively analyze the characteristic dimensions (length, height, and central axial width) of the gas cylinder, the volume compression ratio of the cylinder over time. In addition, the flow mechanism of shock-driven interface gas mixing is analyzed from multiple perspectives by combining it with the flow field pressure, velocity, circulation, and gas mixing rate. Then the effects of different initial component distribution conditions on interface instability are investigated. The results show when the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, the reflection coefficient gradually increases on both sides of the interface. When the incident shock wave interacts with the cylinder, the transmission of the shock wave will transit from conventional transmission to unconventional transmission. At the same time, the reflected shock wave is gradually strengthened, and the transmitted shock wave is gradually weakened, which leads to an increase in the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. Moreover, the Atwood number on both sides of the interface also increases as the diffusion interface transit to the sharp interface, which leads to an increase in the Rayleigh-Taylor instability and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. Therefore, the increase in instability will lead to an increase the circulation, resulting in an increase in the growth rate of gas mixing rate.

Keywords: shock wave, He light cylinder, Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, Gaussian distribution

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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Traffic calming measures are different design features or strategies used to reduce the speed of a traveling vehicle on a particular road. These calming measures are common on rural roads of Oman. Some of these measures are road speed limits, vertical deflections, horizontal deflections, and road signs. In general, vertical deflections such as rumble strips, road studs (cat’s eye), speed tables, and speed humps are widely used. In this paper, as vehicle speeding is a major cause of road traffic crashes and high fatalities in Oman, the effectiveness of existing traffic calming measures at current locations on rural roads is assessed. The study was conducted on the rural roads of Dhofar Governorate, which is located in the south of Oman. A special focus is given to the calming measures implemented on the mountain roads of Dhofar. It is shown that vertical deflection calming measures are effective in reducing vehicle speed to 20 to 40 kph, depending on the vertical deflection type and spacing. Calming measures are also proposed at locations with a high probability of traffic crashes based on the number of traffic crashes at these locations, road type, and road geometry.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, speed, traffic calming measures, traffic crash

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Authors: Md Tareq Ferdous Khan, Shrabanti Mazumder, MB Rao

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Background: Substance use during pregnancy is a longstanding public health problem that results in severe consequences for pregnant women and fetuses. Methods: Eight (2011-2018) datasets on pregnant women’s admissions are extracted from TEDS-A. Distributions of sociodemographic, substance abuse behaviors, and clinical characteristics are constructed and compared over the years for trends by the Cochran-Armitage test. Market basket analysis is used in mining the association among polysubstance abuse. Results: Over the years, pregnant woman admissions as the percentage of total and female admissions remain stable, where total annual admissions range from 1.54 to about 2 million with the female share of 33.30% to 35.61%. Pregnant women aged 21-29, 12 or more years of education, white race, unemployed, holding independent living status are among the most vulnerable. Concerns prevail on a significant number of polysubstance users, young age at first use, frequency of daily users, and records of prior admissions (60%). Trends of abused primary substances show a significant rise in heroin (66%) and methamphetamine (46%) over the years, although the latest year shows a considerable downturn. On the other hand, significant decreasing patterns are evident for alcohol (43%), marijuana or hashish (24%), cocaine or crack (23%), other opiates or synthetics (36%), and benzodiazepines (29%). Basket analysis reveals some patterns of co-occurrence of substances consistent over the years. Conclusions: This comprehensive study can work as a reference to identify the most vulnerable groups based on their characteristics and deal with the most hazardous substances from their evidence of co-occurrence.

Keywords: basket analysis, pregnant women, substance abuse, trend analysis

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Authors: Seini G. Kaufusi

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Background. Physician-assisted death (PAD) has and continues to be a controversial issue in the U.S. Dying with dignity statutes exists in 9 U.S. jurisdictions that permit competent adults diagnosed with a terminal illness and given a prognosis of 6 month or less to live to request medication to hasten death. Robust advocacy for and against PAD influences policy, and opinions vary. Aim. This study aims to explore the association between race and the attitudes toward physician-assisted death in the U.S. Methods. Data for this study derives from the General Social Survey (GSS) dataset, a national survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) that focuses on the opinions and values of American’s. A cross-sectional design and probability sample from the 2018 data set was used to randomly select respondents. Results. The results indicated that race is significantly associated with attitudes towards physician-assisted death. The level of significance suggests a strong positive association, and the direction indicated that Black and Other racial groups have higher rates of positive decision about PAD. Conclusion. Although attitudes towards PAD varied, Black and other racial groups had favorable decisions for PAD. Further research is crucial in the continuous debate on PAD and understanding the influences of predictors for or against PAD.

Keywords: attitudes, euthanasia, physician-assisted death, race

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Authors: Miranda I. Dosunmu, Orok E. Oyo-Ita, Inyang O. Oyo-Ita

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a class of priority listed organic pollutants due to their carcinogenicity, mutagenity, acute toxicity and persistency in the environment. The distribution and historical changes of PAHs contamination in recent sediment cores from the Imo River were investigated using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometer. The concentrations of total PAHs (TPAHs) ranging from 402.37 ng/g dry weight (dw) at the surface layer of the Estuary zone (ESC6; 0-5 cm) to 92,388.59 ng/g dw at the near surface layer of the Afam zone (ASC5; 5-10 cm) indicate that PAHs contamination was localized not only between sample sites but also within the same cores. Sediment-depth profiles for the four (Afam, Mangrove, Estuary and illegal Petroleum refinery) cores revealed irregular distribution patterns in the TPAH concentrations except the fact that these levels became maximized at the near surface layers (5-10 cm) corresponding to a geological time-frame of about 1996-2004. This time scale coincided with the period of intensive bunkering and oil pipeline vandalization by the Niger Delta militant groups. Also a general slight decline was found in the TPAHs levels from near the surface layers (5-10 cm) to the most recent top layers (0-5 cm) of the cores, attributable to the recent effort by the Nigerian government in clamping down the illegal activity of the economic saboteurs. Therefore, the recent amnesty period granted to the militant groups should be extended. Although mechanism of perylene formation still remains enigmatic, examination of its distributions down cores indicates natural biogenic, pyrogenic and petrogenic origins for the compound at different zones. Thus, the characteristic features of the Imo River environment provide a means of tracing diverse origins for perylene.

Keywords: perylene, historical trend, distribution, origin, Imo River

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Authors: Kernou Nassim

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The current study presents a vulnerability and a reliability-mechanical approach that focuses on evaluating the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structures to determine the probability of failure. In this case, the performance function reflecting the non-linear behavior of the structure is modeled by a response surface to establish an analytical relationship between the random variables (strength of concrete and yield strength of steel) and mechanical responses of the structure (inter-floor displacement) obtained by the pushover results of finite element simulations. The push over-analysis is executed by software SAP2000. The results acquired prove that properly designed frames will perform well under seismic loads. It is a comparative study of the behavior of the existing structure before and after reinforcement using the pushover method. The coupling indirect mechanical reliability by response surface avoids prohibitive calculation times. Finally, the results of the proposed approach are compared with Monte Carlo Simulation. The comparative study shows that the structure is more reliable after the introduction of new shear walls.

Keywords: finite element method, surface response, reliability, reliability mechanical coupling, vulnerability

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

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Over the years, kernel density estimation has been extensively studied within the context of nonparametric density estimation. The fundamental components of kernel density estimation are the kernel function and the bandwidth. While the mathematical exploration of the kernel component has been relatively limited, its selection and development remain crucial. The Mean Integrated Squared Error (MISE), serving as a measure of discrepancy, provides a robust framework for assessing the effectiveness of any kernel function. A kernel function with a lower MISE is generally considered to perform better than one with a higher MISE. Hence, the primary aim of this article is to create kernels that exhibit significantly reduced MISE when compared to existing classical kernels. Consequently, this article introduces a cluster of hybrid polynomial kernel families. The construction of these proposed kernel functions is carried out heuristically by combining two kernels from the classical polynomial kernel family using probability axioms. We delve into the analysis of error propagation within these kernels. To assess their performance, simulation experiments, and real-life datasets are employed. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid kernels surpass their classical kernel counterparts in terms of performance.

Keywords: classical polynomial kernels, cluster of families, global error, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

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Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

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Authors: Odunayo Olawuyi Fadodun

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Dielectric elastomers (DEs) are a type of intelligent materials with salient features like electromechanical coupling, lightweight, fast actuation speed, low cost and high energy density that make them good candidates for numerous engineering applications. This paper adopts a new nonlinear electroelastic constitutive theory to examine radial deformation of a pressurized thick-walled spherical shell of soft dielectric material with compliant electrodes on its inner and outer surfaces. A general formular for the internal pressure, which depends on the deformation and a potential difference between boundary electrodes or uniform surface charge distributions, is obtained in terms of special function. To illustrate the effects of an applied electric field on the mechanical behaviour of the shell, three different energy functions with distinct mechanical properties are employed for numerical purposes. The observed behaviour of the shells is preserved in the presence of an applied electric field, and the influence of the field due to a potential difference declines more slowly with the increasing deformation to that produced by a surface charge. Counterpart results are then presented for the thin-walled shell approximation as a limiting case of a thick-walled shell without restriction on the energy density. In the absence of internal pressure, it is obtained that inflation is caused by the application of an electric field. The resulting numerical solutions of the theory presented in this work are in agreement with those predicted by the generally adopted Dorfmann and Ogden model.

Keywords: constitutive theory, elastic dielectric, electroelasticity, finite deformation, nonlinear response, spherical shell

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Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

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We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

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Authors: E. Akpinar, A. Erol, M.F. Cakir

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Precast reinforced concrete (RC) structures are excellent alternatives for construction world all over the globe, thanks to their rapid erection phase, ease mounting process, better quality and reasonable prices. Such structures are rather popular for industrial buildings. For the sake of economic importance of such industrial buildings as well as significance of safety, like every other type of structures, performance assessment and structural risk analysis are important. Fragility curves are powerful tools for damage projection and assessment for any sort of building as well as precast structures. In this study, a comparative review of current knowledge on fragility analysis of industrial precast RC structures were presented and findings in previous studies were compiled. Effects of different structural variables, parameters and building geometries as well as soil conditions on fragility analysis of precast structures are reviewed. It was aimed to briefly present the information in the literature about the procedure of damage probability prediction including fragility curves for such industrial facilities. It is found that determination of the aforementioned structural parameters as well as selecting analysis procedure are critically important for damage prediction of industrial precast RC structures using fragility curves.

Keywords: damage prediction, fragility curve, industrial buildings, precast reinforced concrete structures

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Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

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Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

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Authors: M. Mojaddam, M. Araei, T. Saki Nejad, M. Soltani Howyzeh

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In order to study the effect of different levels of triple super phosphate chemical fertilizer and biological phosphate fertilizer (fertile 2) on some morphological traits of corn this research was carried out in Ahvaz in 2002 as a factorial experiment in randomized complete block design with 4 replications.) The experiment included two factors: first, biological phosphate fertilizer (fertile 2) at three levels of 0, 100, 200 g/ha; second, triple super phosphate chemical fertilizer at three levels of 0, 60, 90 kg/ha of pure phosphorus (P2O5). The obtained results indicated that fertilizer treatments had a significant effect on some morphological traits at 1% probability level. In this regard, P2B2 treatment (100 g/ha biological phosphate fertilizer (fertile 2) and 60 kg/ha triple super phosphate fertilizer) had the greatest plan height, stem diameter, number of leaves and ear length. It seems that in Ahvaz weather conditions, decrease of consumption of triple superphosphate chemical fertilizer to less than a half along with the consumption of biological phosphate fertilizer (fertile 2) is highly important in order to achieve optimal results. Therefore, it can be concluded that biological fertilizers can be used as a suitable substitute for some of the chemical fertilizers in sustainable agricultural systems.

Keywords: biological phosphate fertilizer (fertile 2), triple super phosphate, corn, morphological traits

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Authors: Fatai O. Oladoyinbo, Felix O. Sanni, Akinwunmi Fatai, Kamoli A. Amusa, Saheed A. Ganiyu, Wasiu B. Ayinde, Tajudeen A. Afolabi, Enock O. Dare

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Silver (Ag) and silica (SiO2) nanoparticles were synthesized using the chemical reduction method from silver nitrate and sodium silicate, respectively. X-ray Diffraction (XRD), High-Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Uv-Visible spectroscopy, Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy and N2 adsorption-desorption techniques were utilized to characterize the composition and structure of the samples. The crystallinity pattern of Ag nanoparticles was indexed as (111), (200), (220) and (311), which allowed reflections from face-centered cubic silver. XRD of SiO2 showed good porosity with a broad-spectrum band at Bragg’s angle 2θ of 22° while that of Ag-SiO2 showed distinct peaks at 2θ values of 39°, 43°, 66° and 79°. The XRD result agreed perfectly with the SEM and HRTEM images which showed Ag-SiO2 isotropic and anisotropic under the varying concentration of reactants. The elemental composition of Ag-SiO2, as displayed by EDX, confirmed Ag enrichment in the Ag-SiO2 heterostructure. The Uv-Visible peak at 421 nm confirmed the Surface Plasmon Resonance absorption peak of silver nanoparticles. N2 adsorption-desorption result showed a broad band of Ag-SiO2 from 3 to 8 nm, which indicated relatively narrow pore size distributions. Humidity sensing measurements performed in a controlled humidity chamber showed very high sensitivity with a sensitivity factor (SF) of 4.63 and high linearity with a steady decrease in resistance to humidity from 880 Ω at 10% RH to 190 Ω at 100% RH, indicating that Ag-SiO2 nanocomposite is a good sensing material with high sensitivity and linearity.

Keywords: silver, silica, nanocomposite, synthesis, heterostructure, core shell

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Authors: Sandhya Baskaran, Hari Kumar Nagabushanam

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Sarcasm sentiment recognition is an area of natural language processing that is being probed into in the recent times. Even with the advancements in NLP, typical translations of words, sentences in its context fail to provide the exact information on a sentiment or emotion of a user. For example, if something bad happens, the statement ‘That's just what I need, great! Terrific!’ is expressed in a sarcastic tone which could be misread as a positive sign by any text-based analyzer. In this paper, we are presenting a unique real time ‘word with its tone’ spotting technique which would provide the sentiment analysis for a tone or pitch of a voice in combination with the words being expressed. This hybrid approach increases the probability for identification of special sentiment like sarcasm much closer to the real world than by mining text or speech individually. The system uses a tone analyzer such as YIN-FFT which extracts pitch segment-wise that would be used in parallel with a speech recognition system. The clustered data is classified for sentiments and sarcasm score for each of it determined. Our Simulations demonstrates the improvement in f-measure of around 12% compared to existing detection techniques with increased precision and recall.

Keywords: sarcasm recognition, tone-word spotting, natural language processing, pitch analyzer

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Authors: Maria R. Mula-Molina, Juan A. Ferriz-Papi

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Environmental concerns are increasingly obtaining higher priority in sustainability agenda of educational establishments. This is important not only for its environmental performance in its own right as an organization, but also to present a model for its students. On the other hand, universities play an important role on research and innovative solutions for measuring, analyzing and reducing environmental impacts for different activities. The assessment and decision-making process during the activity of educational establishments is linked to the application of robust indicators. In this way, the carbon footprint is a developing indicator for sustainability that helps understand the direct impact on climate change. But it is not easy to implement. There is a large amount of considering factors involved that increases its complexity, such as different uses at the same time (research, lecturing, administration), different users (students, staff) or different levels of activity (lecturing, exam or holidays periods). The aim of this research is to develop a simplified methodology for calculating and comparing carbon emissions per user at university campus considering two main aspects for carbon accountings: Building operations and transport. Different methodologies applied in other Spanish university campuses are analyzed and compared to obtain a final proposal to be developed in this type of establishments. First, building operation calculation considers the different uses and energy sources consumed. Second, for transport calculation, the different users and working hours are calculated separately, as well as their origin and traveling preferences. For every transport, a different conversion factor is used depending on carbon emissions produced. The final result is obtained as an average of carbon emissions produced per user. A case study is applied to the University of Alicante campus in San Vicente del Raspeig (Spain), where the carbon footprint is calculated. While the building operation consumptions are known per building and month, it does not happen with transport. Only one survey about the habit of transport for users was developed in 2009/2010, so no evolution of results can be shown in this case. Besides, building operations are not split per use, as building services are not monitored separately. These results are analyzed in depth considering all factors and limitations. Besides, they are compared to other estimations in other campuses. Finally, the application of the presented methodology is also studied. The recommendations concluded in this study try to enhance carbon emission monitoring and control. A Carbon Action Plan is then a primary solution to be developed. On the other hand, the application developed in the University of Alicante campus cannot only further enhance the methodology itself, but also render the adoption by other educational establishments more readily possible and yet with a considerable degree of flexibility to cater for their specific requirements.

Keywords: building operations, built environment, carbon footprint, climate change, transport

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Authors: M. V. Bartashevich

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The problem of heat transfer at thin laminar liquid film is solved numerically. A thin film of liquid flows down an inclined surface under conditions of variable heat flux on the wall. The use of thin films of liquid allows to create the effective technologies for cooling surfaces. However, it is important to investigate the most suitable cooling regimes from a safety point of view, in order, for example, to avoid overheating caused by the ruptures of the liquid film, and also to study the most effective cooling regimes depending on the character of the distribution of the heat flux on the wall, as well as the character of the blowing of the film surface, i.e., the external shear stress on its surface. In the statement of the problem on the film surface, the heat transfer coefficient between the liquid and gas is set, as well as a variable external shear stress - the intensity of blowing. It is shown that the combination of these factors - the degree of uniformity of the distribution of heat flux on the wall and the intensity of blowing, affects the efficiency of heat transfer. In this case, with an increase in the intensity of blowing, the cooling efficiency increases, reaching a maximum, and then decreases. It is also shown that the more uniform the heating of the wall, the more efficient the heat sink. A separate study was made for the flow regime along the horizontal surface when the liquid film moves solely due to external stress influence. For this mode, the analytical solution is used for the temperature at the entrance region for further numerical calculations downstream. Also the influence of the degree of uniformity of the heat flux distribution on the wall and the intensity of blowing of the film surface on the heat transfer efficiency was also studied. This work was carried out at the Kutateladze Institute of Thermophysics SB RAS (Russia) and supported by FASO Russia.

Keywords: Heat Flux, Heat Transfer Enhancement, External Blowing, Thin Liquid Film

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Authors: Festus M. Epetimehin

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This study was conducted to identify the effect of National Directorate of Employment (NDE) training on the profit of Agricultural-Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and to evaluate the factors that influenced farmers' participation in NDE training, as well as the type and frequency of training farmers and other agro-allied entrepreneurs in Nigeria. Using a multi-stage sampling procedure, a total of 384 respondents were sampled, including 192 beneficiaries and 192 non-beneficiaries in Oyo and Lagos States, respectively. Data were analysed using Binary Logit regression and Propensity Score Matching techniques. According to the binary logit analysis, respondents’ gender, availability to extension services, and the location of respondent’s operation were determinant factors influencing NDE training enrolment. All identified factors are related to the probability of respondents’ involvement in a positive way. Propensity score matching revealed that Agricultural-SMEs who participated in the NDE program boosted their profit by N341,072.18. The positive outcome of the effect implies that NDE training enhances Agri-SME performance in Nigeria. The study concluded that greater funding should be provided for the NDE for performance-enhancing training of the Agri-SMEs.

Keywords: PSM, binary logit model, Agri-SME

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Authors: Jinghua Zhang

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Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

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Authors: Mirna Guevara, Edgar Santoyo, Daniel Perez-Zarate, Erika Almirudis

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The Acoculco caldera located in Puebla (Mexico) has been preliminary identified as a blind hot-dry rock geothermal system. Two drilled wells suggest the existence of high temperatures >300°C and non-conventional tools are been applied to study this system. A comprehensive survey of soil-gas (CO₂) flux measurements (1,500 sites) was carried out during the dry seasons over almost two years (2015 and 2016). Isotopic analyses of δ¹³CCO₂ were performed to discriminate the origin source of the CO2 fluxes. The soil CO2 flux measurements were made in situ by the accumulation chamber method, whereas gas samples for δ13CCO2 were selectively collected from the accumulation chamber with evacuated gas vials via a septum. Two anomalous geothermal zones were identified as a result of these campaigns: Los Azufres (19°55'29.4'' N; 98°08'39.9'' W; 2,839 masl) and Alcaparrosa (19°55'20.6'' N; 98°08'38.3'' W; 2,845 masl). To elucidate the origin of the C in soil CO₂ fluxes, the isotopic signature of δ¹³C was used. Graphical Statistical Analysis (GSA) and a three end-member mixing diagram were used to corroborate the presence of distinctive statistical samples, and trends for the diffuse gas fluxes. Spatial and temporal distributions of the CO₂ fluxes were studied. High CO₂ emission rates up to 38,217 g/m2/d and 33,706 g/m2/d were measured for the Los Azufres and Alcaparrosa respectively; whereas the δ¹³C signatures showed values ranging from -3.4 to -5.5 o/oo for both zones, confirming their magmatic origin. This study has provided a valuable framework to set the direction of further exploration campaigns in the Acoculco caldera. Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the funding received from CeMIE-Geo P09 project (SENER-CONACyT).

Keywords: accumulation chamber method, carbon dioxide, diffusive degassing, geothermal exploration

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Authors: Jungkyun Im

Abstract:

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are effective for relieving pain and reducing inflammation. They are nonselective inhibitors of two isoforms of COX, cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), and thereby inhibiting the production of hormone-like lipid compounds such as, prostaglandins and thromboxanes which cause inflammation, pain, fever, platelet aggregation, etc. In addition, recently there are many research articles reporting the neuroprotective effect of NSAIDs in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD). However, the clinical use of NSAIDs in these diseases is limited by low brain distribution. Therefore, in order to assist the in-depth investigation on the pharmaceutical mechanism of flurbiprofen in neuroprotection and to make flurbiprofen a more potent drug to prevent or alleviate neurodegenerative diseases, delivery of flurbiprofen to brain should be effective and sufficient amount of flurbiprofen must penetrate the BBB thus gaining access into the patient’s brain. We have recently developed several types of guanidine-rich molecular carriers with high molecular weights and good water solubility that readily cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and display efficient distributions in the mouse brain. The G8 (having eight guanidine groups) molecular carrier based on D-sorbitol was found to be very effective in delivering anticancer drugs to a mouse brain. In the present study, employing the same molecular carrier, we prepared the flurbiprofen conjugate and studied its BBB permeation by mouse tissue distribution study. Flurbiprofen was attached to a molecular carrier with a fluorescein probe and multiple terminal guanidiniums. The conjugate was found to internalize into live cells and readily cross the BBB to enter the mouse brain. Our novel synthetic flurbiprofen conjugate will hopefully delivery NSAIDs into brain, and is therefore applicable to the neurodegenerative diseases treatment or prevention.

Keywords: flurbiprofen, drug delivery, molecular carrier, organic synthesis

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Authors: Guangyuan Zhao, Nan Huang, Xuesong Han, Xu Huang

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of sample dilution in the traditional particle filter algorithm and achieve accurate state estimation in a nonlinear system, a particle filter method based on an improved artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm was proposed. The algorithm simulated the process of bee foraging and optimization and made the high likelihood region of the backward probability of particles moving to improve the rationality of particle distribution. The opposition-based learning (OBL) strategy is introduced to optimize the initial population of the artificial bee colony algorithm. The convergence factor is introduced into the neighborhood search strategy to limit the search range and improve the convergence speed. Finally, the crossover and mutation operations of the genetic algorithm are introduced into the search mechanism of the following bee, which makes the algorithm jump out of the local extreme value quickly and continue to search the global extreme value to improve its optimization ability. The simulation results show that the improved method can improve the estimation accuracy of particle filters, ensure the diversity of particles, and improve the rationality of particle distribution.

Keywords: particle filter, impoverishment, state estimation, artificial bee colony algorithm

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Authors: Prakash Thapa, Gye Choon Park, Sung Gi Kwon, Jin Lee

Abstract:

The generation of electric power from a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell is influenced by temperature, pressure, humidity, flow rate of reactant gaseous and partial flooding of membrane electrode assembly (MEA). Among these factors, temperature and cathode flooding are the most affecting parameters on the performance of fuel cell. This paper describes the detail design and effect of these parameters on PEM fuel cell. Performance of all parameters was monitored, analyzed and controlled by using 5KWatt PEM fuel cell. In the real-time data communication for remote monitoring and control of PEM fuel cell, a normalized least mean square algorithm in cognitive radio environment is used. By the use of this method, probability of energy signal detection will be maximum which solved the frequency shortage problem. So the monitoring system hanging out and slow speed problem will be solved. Also from the control unit, all parameters are controlled as per the system requirement. As a result, PEM fuel cell generates maximum electricity with better performance.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, pressure, temperature and humidity sensor (PTH), efficiency curve, cognitive radio network (CRN)

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment

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Authors: Meron Zenaselase Rata, Euridice Leyequien Abarca

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The production of major crops in Northern Ethiopia, especially the Tigray Region, is at subsistence level due to drought, erratic rainfall, and poor soil fertility. Since cactus pear is a drought-resistant plant, it is considered as a lifesaver fruit and a strategy for poverty reduction in a drought-affected area of the region. Despite its contribution to household income and food security in the area, the cactus pear sub-sector is experiencing many constraints with limited attention given to its post-harvest loss management. Therefore, this research was carried out to identify opportunities for reducing post-harvest losses and recommend possible strategies to reduce post-harvest losses, thereby improving production and smallholder’s income. Both probability and non-probability sampling techniques were employed to collect the data. Ganta Afeshum district was selected from Eastern Tigray, and two peasant associations (Buket and Golea) were also selected from the district purposively for being potential in cactus pear production. Simple random sampling techniques were employed to survey 30 households from each of the two peasant associations, and a semi-structured questionnaire was used as a tool for data collection. Moreover, in this research 2 collectors, 2 wholesalers, 1 processor, 3 retailers, 2 consumers were interviewed; and two focus group discussion was also done with 14 key farmers using semi-structured checklist; and key informant interview with governmental and non-governmental organizations were interviewed to gather more information about the cactus pear production, post-harvest losses, the strategies used to reduce the post-harvest losses and suggestions to improve the post-harvest management. To enter and analyze the quantitative data, SPSS version 20 was used, whereas MS-word were used to transcribe the qualitative data. The data were presented using frequency and descriptive tables and graphs. The data analysis was also done using a chain map, correlations, stakeholder matrix, and gross margin. Mean comparisons like ANOVA and t-test between variables were used. The analysis result shows that the present cactus pear value chain involves main actors and supporters. However, there is inadequate information flow and informal market linkages among actors in the cactus pear value chain. The farmer's gross margin is higher when they sell to the processor than sell to collectors. The significant postharvest loss in the cactus pear value chain is at the producer level, followed by wholesalers and retailers. The maximum and minimum volume of post-harvest losses at the producer level is 4212 and 240 kgs per season. The post-harvest loss was caused by limited farmers skill on-farm management and harvesting, low market price, limited market information, absence of producer organization, poor post-harvest handling, absence of cold storage, absence of collection centers, poor infrastructure, inadequate credit access, using traditional transportation system, absence of quality control, illegal traders, inadequate research and extension services and using inappropriate packaging material. Therefore, some of the recommendations were providing adequate practical training, forming producer organizations, and constructing collection centers.

Keywords: cactus pear, post-harvest losses, profit margin, value-chain

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

Abstract:

Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Melese Tadesse Morebo

Abstract:

Pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in East Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, are vulnerable to climate-related risks. The aim of this study is to characterize the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall and temperature of the middle and lower awash areas of Ethiopia. Start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), length of growing season (LGS), number of rainy days, and probability of dry spell occurrences were analyzed using INSTAT Plus (v3.7) software. Daily rainfall and temperature data for 33 years (1990–2022) from six stations were analyzed. The result of the study revealed that the annual rainfall in the study area as a whole showed an increasing trend, but its trend was statistically non-significant. During the study period, the Kiremt rainfall at Amibara station showed statistically significant increasing trends. The trend analysis of SOS, EOS, and LGS shows up and down trends at all stations. The mean lengths of growing seasons in the study area ranged from 20 to 61 days during the study period. In the study area, the annual mean maximum temperature ranged between 34.1°C and 38.3°C over the last three decades. All stations within the research area during the study period, the annual minimum temperature exhibited a substantial impact.

Keywords: annual rainfall, LGS, minimum temperature, Mann-Kendall test

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