Search results for: population dynamics

Authors: M. W. Sun, Y. Zhang, L. M. Zhang, Z. H. Wang, Z. Q. Chen

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In the realm of flight control, the Proportional- Derivative (PD) control is still widely used for the attitude control in practice, particularly for the pitch control, and the attitude dynamics using PD controller should be investigated deeply. According to the empirical knowledge about the unstable flight dynamics, the control parameter combination conditions to generate sole or finite number of closed-loop oscillations, which is a quite smooth response and is more preferred by practitioners, are presented in analytical or numerical manners. To analyze the effects of the combination conditions of the control parameters, the roots of several polynomials are sought to obtain feasible solutions. These conditions can also be plotted in a 2-D plane which makes the conditions be more explicit by using multiple interval operations. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed methods and some comparisons are also performed.

Keywords: attitude control, dynamic performance, numerical solving method, interval, unstable flight dynamics

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Authors: Muneeba Butt

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One of the most important physical evidence which leaves suspects at the crime scene is footprints. Analysis of footprints, which can provide useful information for personal identification, is helpful in crime scene investigation. For the current study, 200 samples collected (144 male and 56 female) from Pakistani population with a consent form. The footprints were collected by using black ink with an ink pad. The entire samples were photographed, and then the magnifying glass was used for visualization of individual characteristics including detail of toes, humps, phalange mark, and flat foot cracks in footprint patterns. The descriptive results of individualizing characteristics features were presented in tabular form with respective frequency and percentage. In the result in the male population, the prevalence of tibialis type (T-type) is highest. In the female population, the prevalence of midularis type (M-type) is highest. Humps on the first toe are more found in the male population rather than other humps. In the female population, humps on the third toe are more found rather than other humps. In the male population, the prevalence of phalange mark by toe 1 is highest followed by toe 3, toe 5, toe 2, toe 4 and in female population the prevalence of phalange mark by toe 1 is highest followed by toe 5, 4, 3 and 2. Creases marks are found highest in male population as compared to the female population.

Keywords: foot prints, toes, humps, cracks

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Authors: Marinela Istrate, Ionel Muntele, Alexandru Bănică

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The authors propose the identification, analysis and prognosis of the quantitative and qualitative evolution of the elderly population in the functional urban areas. The present paper takes into account the analysis of some representative indicators (the weight of the elderly population, ageing index, dynamic index of economic ageing of productive population etc.) and the elaboration of an integrated indicator that would help differentiate the population ageing forms in the 48 functional urban areas that were defined based on demographic and social-economic criteria for all large and medium cities in Romania.

Keywords: ageing, demographic transition, functional urban areas, spatial resilience

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Authors: Sabiu Abdullahi Yau

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Nigeria is a high fertility country that experiences eye-popping population growth, with no end in sight. However, there is evidence that its large population inhibits government’s efforts in meeting the basic needs of the people. Moreover, past and present governments of Nigeria have been committing huge amount of financial resources to meet the basic infrastructural requirements capable of propelling growth and development. Despite the country’s large population and abundant natural resources, poverty, unemployment, rural-urban migration, deforestation and inadequate infrastructural facilities have been persistently on the increase resulting in consistent failure of government policies to impact positively on the economy. This paper, however, identifies and critically analyses the major development challenges caused by population growth in Nigeria using secondary data. The paper concludes that for the Nigeria’s economy to develop, all the identified challenges posed by rapid population growth must be promptly and squarely addressed.

Keywords: economic development, population, growth, Nigeria

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Authors: Fariba Sepahvand, Seyed Hassan Moosa-kazemi

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The objective was to determine the population dynamics of Anopheles maculipinnis s.l. in relation to probable malaria transmission. The study was carried out in three villages in Isfahan and charmahal bakhteari provinces of Iran, from April to March 2014. Mosquitoes were collected by Total catch, Human and Animal bait collection. An. maculipinnis play as a dominant vector with exophagic and endophilic behavior. Ovary dissection revealed four dilatations indicate at least 9% of the population can reach to the dangerous age to potentially malaria transmission. Two peaks of blood feeding were observed, 9.00-10.00 P.M, and the 12.00-00.01 A.M. The gonotrophic cycle, survival rate, life expectancy of the species was 4, 0.82 and five days, respectively. Vectorial capacity was measured as 0.028. In conclusion, moderate climatic conditions support the persistence, density and longevity of An maculipinnis s.l. could result in more significant malaria transmission.

Keywords: age determination, Anopheles maculipinnis, center of Iran, Malaria

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Authors: Rui Mao, Heming Ji, Xiaoyu Wang

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Keystroke dynamics are widely used in identity recognition. It has the advantage that the individual typing rhythm is difficult to imitate. It also supports continuous authentication through the keyboard without extra devices. The existing keystroke dynamics authentication methods based on machine learning have a drawback in supporting relatively complex scenarios with massive data. There are drawbacks to both feature extraction and model optimization in these methods. To overcome the above weakness, an authentication model of keystroke dynamics based on deep learning is proposed. The model uses feature vectors formed by keystroke content and keystroke time. It ensures efficient continuous authentication by cooperating attention mechanisms with the combination of CNN and Bi-LSTM. The model has been tested with Open Data Buffalo dataset, and the result shows that the FRR is 3.09%, FAR is 3.03%, and EER is 4.23%. This proves that the model is efficient and accurate on continuous authentication.

Keywords: keystroke dynamics, identity authentication, deep learning, CNN, LSTM

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Authors: Yuri V. Kim

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This article presents a new approach to the Functional Testing of Space Systems (SS). It can be considered as a generic test and used for a wide class of SS that from the point of view of System Dynamics and Control may be described by the ordinary differential equations. Suggested methodology is based on using semi-natural experiment- laboratory stand that doesn’t require complicated, precise and expensive technological control-verification equipment. However, it allows for testing system as a whole totally assembled unit during Assembling, Integration and Testing (AIT) activities, involving system hardware (HW) and software (SW). The test physically activates system input (sensors) and output (actuators) and requires recording their outputs in real time. The data is then inserted in laboratory PC where it is post-experiment processed by Matlab/Simulink Identification Toolbox. It allows for estimating system dynamics in form of estimation of system differential equations by the experimental way and comparing them with expected mathematical model prematurely verified by mathematical simulation during the design process.

Keywords: system dynamics, space system ground tests and space qualification, system dynamics identification, satellite attitude control, assembling, integration and testing

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Authors: Getachew Tilahun, Oluwole Makinde, David Malonza

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We propose and analyze a non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the local and global asymptotically stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The model exhibit a backward bifurcation and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies; namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.

Keywords: cost effectiveness analysis, optimal control, pneumonia dynamics, stability analysis, numerical simulation

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Authors: Irna Malganova

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The paper assessed the effectiveness of the use of urban functional zoning using the method of M.A. Kramer by the example of Kazan city (Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation) using geoinformation technologies. On the basis of the data obtained, the calculations were carried out to obtain data on population density, overcoming geographic determinism, as well as the effectiveness of the formation of urban frameworks. The authors proposed recommendations for the effectiveness of municipal frameworks in the period from 2018 to 2021: economic, social, environmental and social. The study of effective territorial planning in a given period allows to display of the dynamics of planning changes, as well as assessment of changes in the formation of urban frameworks. Based on the incoming data obtained from the master plan of the municipal formation of Kazan, in the period from 2018 to 2021, there was an increase in population by 13841 people or 1.1% of the values of 2018. In addition, the area of Kazan increased by 2419.6 hectares. In the structure of the distribution of areas of functional zones, there was an increase in such zones of the municipality as zones of residential and public purpose. Changes in functional zoning, as well as territories requiring reorganization, are presented using geoinformation technologies in open-source software Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS 3.32). According to the calculations based on the method of functional zoning efficiency by M.A. Kreimer, the territorial-planning structure of Kazan City is quite effective. However, in the development of spatial planning concepts, it is possible to emphasize the weakened interest of the population in the development of territorial planning documents. Thus, the approach to spatial planning of Kazan differs from foreign methods and approaches based on the joint development of planning directions and development of territories of municipalities between the developers of the planning structure, business representatives and the population. The population plays the role of the target audience on which territorial planning is oriented. It follows that there is a need to satisfy the opinions and demands of the population.

Keywords: spatial development, metamorphosis, Kazan city, spatial planning, efficiency, geographic determinism., GIS, QGIS

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Authors: Shachi Pathak

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We are living in knowledge based economy where firms can gain competitive advantage with the help of managing knowledge within the organization. The purpose the study is to develop a conceptual model to explain the relationship between factors affecting knowledge sharing, called as knowledge enablers, in an organization, knowledge sharing activities and organizational performance, using system dynamics approach. This research is important since it will provide better understandings on what are the key knowledge enablers to support knowledge sharing activities, and how knowledge sharing activities will affect the capability of an organization to enhance the performance of the organization.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge sharing, organizational performance, system dynamics

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Authors: Zhou Ziyi, Chen Qiuxiao, Wu Shuang

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Population diversification is very common in villages located in the developed coastal areas of China. Based on the analyses of the characteristics of the traditional rural society and its landscape, also in consideration of the diversified landscape demand due to the population diversification of the village, with the dual ideas of heritage and innovation, the ideas and methods of rural landscape design were explored by taking Duxuao Village in Zhejiang Province of China as an example.

Keywords: rural landscape, population diversification, landscape design, architecture

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Authors: Anwen Ren

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This study explores the commercialization of eSports and its impact on fan hierarchies, focusing on gender dynamics and emotional engagement. Through mixed-methods research, it examines the divide between "traditional fans" and "groupie fans," highlighting how gendered stereotypes marginalize female fans. Using the case of professional eSports player Scout, the paper analyzes parasocial relationships and their role in the fan economy. The findings reveal the need for inclusivity in fan culture to address gender bias and optimize eSports' commercial potential. This work contributes to understanding the intersection of gender, representation, and digital fandoms.

Keywords: eSports, fan culture, gender dynamics, commercialization

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Etsuo Morishita

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This paper presents the project and experiment-based fluid dynamics education in Meisei University, a private institution in Tokyo, Japan. We pay attention not only to the basic engineering courses but also to the practical aspect of engineering experience. So, we prepare courses called the Projects from I to VI. The Projects I and II are designed for the first year, III and IV are designated for the second year, V and VI are prepared for the third year, respectively. Each supervisor is responsible for two of these projects every year. When students take the Project V and VI at the third year, we automatically assume that these students will join the lab of the project for the graduation thesis. We would like to show our experience in the Project I in the summer term, 2016. In this project, we introduce a traction flight vehicle called Cat Flyer. This is a kind of a kite towed by a car for example. This is very similar to parasailing, but flight is possible even on the roads. Experiments in mechanical engineering education are also very important, and we would like to explain our course on centrifugal pump, venture, and orifice. Although these are described in detail in the text books of fluid dynamics, it is still crucial to have practical experiments as a student.

Keywords: aerodynamics, experiment, fluid dynamics, project

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Authors: E. O. Clarke, O. J. Aderinola, O. A. Adeboyejo, M. A. Anetekhai

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Aims: The study is aimed at establishing the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on the abundance, distribution pattern and seasonal variations of the planktonic crustacean populations. Place and Duration of Study: A premier investigation into the dynamics of planktonic crustacean populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out from January 2011 to December 2012. Study Design: The study covered identification, temporal abundance, spatial distribution and diversity of the planktonic crustacea. Methodology: Standard techniques were used to collect samples from eleven stations covering five proximal satellite towns (Idoluwo, Oto, Ibiye, Obele, and Gbanko) bordering the lagoon. Data obtained were statistically analyzed using linear regression and hierarchical clustering. Results:Thirteen (13) planktonic crustacean populations were identified. Total percentage abundance was highest for Bosmina species (20%) and lowest for Polyphemus species (0.8%). The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (“r” values) between total planktonic crustacean population and some physical and chemical parameters showed that positive correlations having low level of significance occurred with salinity (r = 0.042) (sig = 0.184) and with surface water dissolved oxygen (r = 0.299) (sig = 0.155). Linear regression plots indicated that, the total population of planktonic crustacea were mainly influenced and only increased with an increase in value of surface water temperature (Rsq = 0.791) and conductivity (Rsq = 0.589). The total population of planktonic crustacea had a near neutral (zero correlation) with the surface water dissolved oxygen and thus, does not significantly change with the level of the surface water dissolved oxygen. The correlations were positive with NO3-N (midstream) at Ibiye (Rsq =0.022) and (downstream) Gbanko (Rsq =0.013), PO4-P at Ibiye (Rsq =0.258), K at Idoluwo (Rsq =0.295) and SO4-S at Oto (Rsq = 0.094) and Gbanko (Rsq = 0.457). The Berger-Parker Dominance Index (BPDI) showed that the most dominant species was Bosmina species (BPDI = 1.000), followed by Calanus species (BPDI = 1.254). Clusters by squared Euclidan distances using average linkage between groups showed proximities, transcending the borders of genera. Conclusion: The results revealed that planktonic crustacean population in Ologe lagoon undergo seasonal perturbations, were highly influenced by nutrient, metal and organic matter inputs from river Owoh, Agbara industrial estate and surrounding farmlands and were patchy in spatial distribution.

Keywords: diversity, dominance, perturbations, richness, crustacea, lagoon

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Authors: T. G. Kassem, A. K. Adunchezor, J. P. Chollom

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This paper describes a mathematical model developed to predict the dynamics of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and to evaluate the potential impact of vaccination and treatment on its dynamics. We used a compartmental model expressed by a set of differential equations based on the characteristic of HBV transmission. With these, we find the threshold quantity R0, then find the local asymptotic stability of disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we find the global stability of the disease free and endemic equilibrium.

Keywords: hepatitis B virus, epidemiology, vaccination, mathematical model

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Authors: Khaled Suleiman Mohammed Al-Mashrafi

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A compositional plume is a fluid flow in a directional channel of finite width in another fluid of different material composition. The study of the dynamics of compositional plumes plays an essential role in many real-life applications like industrial applications (e.g., iron casting), environmental applications (e.g., salt fingers and sea ice), and geophysical applications (e.g., solidification at the inner core boundary (ICB) of the Earth, and mantle plumes). The dynamics of compositional plumes have been investigated experimentally and theoretically. The experimental works observed that the plume flow seems to be stable, although some experiments showed that it can be unstable. At the same time, the theoretical investigations showed that the plume flow is unstable. This is found to be true even if the plume is subject to rotation or/and in the presence of a magnetic field and even if another plume of different composition is also present. It is noticeable that all the theoretical studies on the dynamics of compositional plumes are conducted in unbounded domains. The present work is to investigate theoretically the influence of vertical walls (boundaries) on the dynamics of compositional plumes in the absence/presence of a rotation field. The mathematical model of the dynamics of compositional plumes used the equations of continuity, motion, heat, concentration of light material, and state. It is found that the presence of boundaries has a strong influence on the basic state solution as well as the stability of the plume, particularly when the plume is close to the boundary, but the compositional plume remains unstable.

Keywords: compositional plumes, stability, bounded domain, vertical boundaries

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Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Kalu Ram Meena, Aditi Kar Gangopadhyay, Satrajit Mandal

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Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variances are known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the method of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

Keywords: estimation after selection, Brewster-Zidek technique, estimators, selected populations

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Authors: Misagh Faezipour

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System dynamics is a systems engineering approach that can help address the complex challenges in different systems. Little is known about how the brain represents people to predict behavior. This work is based on how the brain simulates different personal behavior and responds to them in the case of young children ages one to five. As we know, children’s minds/brains are just as clean as a crystal, and throughout time, in their surroundings, families, and education center, they grow to develop and have different kinds of behavior towards the world and the society they live in. Hence, this work aims to identify how young children respond to various personality behavior and observes their reactions towards them from a system dynamics perspective. We will be exploring the Big Five personality traits in young children. A causal model is developed in support of the system dynamics approach. These models graphically present the factors and factor relationships that contribute to the big five personality traits and provide a better understanding of the entire behavior model. A simulator will be developed that includes a set of causal model factors and factor relationships. The simulator models the behavior of different factors related to personality traits and their impacts and can help make more informed decisions in a risk-free environment.

Keywords: personality traits, systems engineering, system dynamics, causal model, behavior model

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Authors: Paul Bayron, Richard Kelso, Rey Chin

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Wind tunnel experiments were performed in the KC closed-circuit wind tunnel in the University of Adelaide to study the influence of tip-speed-ratio (

Keywords: hotwire anemometry, wake dynamics, wind tunnel, wind turbines

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Authors: A. K. Visnuprasad, P. J. Jojo, Reshma Bhaskaran

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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to simulate the distribution of indoor radon concentration in a living room with elevated levels of radon concentration which varies from 22 Bqm-3 to 1533 Bqm-3 in 24 hours. Finite volume method (FVM) was used for the simulation. The simulation results were experimentally validated at 16 points in two horizontal planes (y=1.4m & y=2.0m) using pin-hole dosimeters and at 3 points using scintillation radon monitor (SRM). Passive measurement using pin-hole dosimeters were performed in all seasons. Another simulation was done to find a suitable position for a passive ventilation system for the effective mitigation of radon.

Keywords: indoor radon, computational fluid dynamics, radon flux, ventilation rate, pin-hole dosimeter

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Authors: David Nagy

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This paper exemplifies the influence of the purpose of an aircraft on the aerodynamic properties of its airfoil. In particular, the research takes into consideration two types of aircraft, namely cargo aircraft and military high-speed aircraft and compares their airfoil characteristics using their NACA airfoils as well as computational fluid dynamics. The results show that airfoils of aircraft designed for cargo have a heavier focus on maintaining a large lift force whereas speed-oriented airplanes focus on minimizing the drag force.

Keywords: aerodynamic simulation, aircraft, airfoil, computational fluid dynamics, lift to drag ratio, NACA 64-206, NACA 65-415

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Authors: Paul C. Njoku, Archana Swati Njoku

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The study deals with the development of a mathematical model to characterize the oil production in Nigeria. This is calculated by initiating the dynamics of oil production in million barrels revenue plan cost of oil production in million nairas and unit cost of production from 1974-1982 in the contest of the federal Republic of Nigeria. This country export oil to other countries as well as importing specialized crude. The transport network from origin/destination tij to pairs is taking into account simulation runs, optimization have been considered in this study.

Keywords: mathematical oil model development dynamics, Nigeria, characterization barrels, dynamics of oil production

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Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

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We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: attractor , cardiac, entropy, holter, mathematical , prediction

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Authors: Wassie Molla, Klaas Frankena, Mart De Jong

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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle, which often occurs in epidemic form. It is caused by lumpy skin disease virus of the genus capripoxvirus of family poxviridae. Mathematical models play important role in the study of infectious diseases epidemiology. They help to explain the dynamics and understand the transmission of an infectious disease within a population. Understanding the transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease between animals is important for the implementation of effective prevention and control measures against the disease. This study was carried out in central and north-western part of Ethiopia with the objectives to understand LSD outbreak dynamics, quantify the transmission between animals and herds, and estimate the disease reproduction ratio in dominantly crop-livestock mixed and commercial herd types. Field observation and follow-up study were undertaken, and the transmission parameters were estimated based on a SIR epidemic model in which individuals are susceptible (S), infected and infectious (I), and recovered and immune or dead (R) using the final size and generalized linear model methods. The result showed that a higher morbidity was recorded in infected crop-livestock (24.1%) mixed production system herds than infected commercial production (17.5%) system herds whereas mortality was higher in intensive (4.0%) than crop-livestock (1.5%) system and the differences were statistically significant. The transmission rate among animals and between herds were 0.75 and 0.68 per week, respectively in dominantly crop-livestock production system. The transmission study undertaken in dominantly crop-livestock production system highlighted the presence of statistically significant seasonal difference in LSD transmission among animals. The reproduction numbers of LSD in dominantly crop-livestock production system were 1.06 among animals and 1.28 between herds whereas it varies from 1.03 to 1.31 among animals in commercial production system. Though the R estimated for LSD in different production systems at different localities is greater than 1, its magnitude is low implying that the disease can be easily controlled by implementing the appropriate control measures.

Keywords: commercial, crop-livestock, Ethiopia, LSD, reproduction number, transmission

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Authors: Hamid Mustafa, Huson J. Heather, Kim Eiusoo, Adeela Ajmal, Tad S. Sonstegard

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the informativeness of Bovine high density SNPs genotyping in Sahiwal cattle population. This is a first attempt to assess the Bovine HD SNP genotyping array in any Pakistani indigenous cattle population. To evaluate these SNPs on genome wide scale, we considered 777,962 SNPs spanning the whole autosomal and X chromosomes in Sahiwal cattle population. Fifteen (15) non related gDNA samples were genotyped with the bovine HD infinium. Approximately 500,939 SNPs were found polymorphic (MAF > 0.05) in Sahiwal cattle population. The results of this study indicate potential application of Bovine High Density SNP genotyping in Pakistani indigenous cattle population. The information generated from this array can be applied in genetic prediction, characterization and genome wide association studies of Pakistani Sahiwal cattle population.

Keywords: Sahiwal cattle, polymorphic SNPs, genotyping, Pakistan

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Authors: R. Mohan, V. Jadhav, A. Ahmed, J. Rivas, A. Kelkar

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Cementitious materials are an excellent example of a composite material with complex hierarchical features and random features that range from nanometer (nm) to millimeter (mm) scale. Multi-scale modeling of complex material systems requires starting from fundamental building blocks to capture the scale relevant features through associated computational models. In this paper, molecular dynamics (MD) modeling is employed to predict the effect of plasticizer additive on the mechanical properties of key hydrated cement constituent calcium-silicate-hydrate (CSH) at the molecular, nanometer scale level. Due to complexity, still unknown molecular configuration of CSH, a representative configuration widely accepted in the field of mineral Jennite is employed. The effectiveness of the Molecular Dynamics modeling to understand the predictive influence of material chemistry changes based on molecular/nanoscale models is demonstrated.

Keywords: cement composite, mechanical properties, molecular dynamics, plasticizer additives

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Authors: G. V. Novikov, V. S. Sivozhelezov, S. S. Kolesnikov, K. V. Shaitan

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The study reports about the influence of binding of orthosteric ligands as well as point mutations on the conformational dynamics of β-2-adrenoreceptor. Using molecular dynamics simulation we found that there was a little fraction of active states of the receptor in its apo (ligand free) ensemble corresponded to its constitutive activity. Analysis of MD trajectories indicated that such spontaneous activation of the receptor is accompanied by the motion in intracellular part of its alpha-helices. Thus receptor’s constitutive activity directly results from its conformational dynamics. On the other hand the binding of a full agonist resulted in a significant shift of the initial equilibrium towards its active state. Finally, the binding of the inverse agonist stabilized the receptor in its inactive state. It is likely that the binding of inverse agonists might be a universal way of constitutive activity inhibition in vivo. Our results indicate that ligand binding redistribute pre-existing conformational degrees of freedom (in accordance to the Monod-Wyman-Changeux-Model) of the receptor rather than cause induced fit in it. Therefore, the ensemble of biologically relevant receptor conformations is encoded in its spatial structure, and individual conformations from that ensemble might be used by the cell in conformity with the physiological behaviour.

Keywords: seven-transmembrane receptors, constitutive activity, activation, x-ray crystallography, principal component analysis, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Sang Ho Lee, Tae Heon Moon, Youn Taik Leem, Kwang Woo Nam

Abstract:

Knowledge and IT inputs to other industrial production have become more important as a key factor for the competitiveness of national and regional economies, such as knowledge economies in smart cities. Knowledge and IT industries lead the industrial innovation and technical (r)evolution through low cost, high efficiency in production, and by creating a new value chain and new production path chains, which is referred as knowledge and IT dynamics. This study aims to investigate the knowledge and IT dynamics in Korea, which are analyzed through the input-output model and structural path analysis. Twenty-eight industries were reclassified into seven categories; Agriculture and Mining, IT manufacture, Non-IT manufacture, Construction, IT-service, Knowledge service, Non-knowledge service to take close look at the knowledge and IT dynamics. Knowledge and IT dynamics were analyzed through the change of input output coefficient and multiplier indices in terms of technical innovation, as well as the changes of the structural paths of the knowledge and IT to other industries in terms of new production value creation from 1985 and 2010. The structural paths of knowledge and IT explain not only that IT foster the generation, circulation and use of knowledge through IT industries and IT-based service, but also that knowledge encourages IT use through creating, sharing and managing knowledge. As a result, this paper found the empirical investigation on the knowledge and IT dynamics of the Korean economy. Knowledge and IT has played an important role regarding the inter-industrial transactional input for production, as well as new industrial creation. The birth of the input-output production path has mostly originated from the knowledge and IT industries, while the death of the input-output production path took place in the traditional industries from 1985 and 2010. The Korean economy has been in transition to a knowledge economy in the Smart City.

Keywords: knowledge and IT industries, input-output model, structural path analysis, dynamics of knowledge and it, knowledge economy, knowledge city and smart city

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