Search results for: the risk index

Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake

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Authors: Birendra Kumar Jha, Mingma L. Sherpa, Binod Kumar Dahal

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Background: The metabolic syndrome is emerging as a major public health concern in the world. Urbanization, surplus energy uptake, compounded by decreased physical activities, and increasing obesity are the major factors contributing to the epidemic of metabolic syndrome worldwide. However, prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its risk factors are little studied in Terai region of Nepal. The objectives of this research were to estimate the prevalence and to identify the risk factors of metabolic syndrome among adults in Terai region of Nepal. Method: We used a community based cross sectional study design. A total of 225 adults (age: 18 to 80 years) were selected from three district of Terai region of Nepal using cluster sampling by camp approach. IDF criteria (central obesity with any two of following four factors: triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl or specific treatment for lipid abnormality, reduced HDL, raised blood pressure and raised fasting plasma glucose or previously diagnosed type 2 diabetes) were used to assess metabolic syndrome. Interview, physical and clinical examination, measurement of fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were conducted for all participants. Chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression were employed to explore the risk factors of metabolic syndrome. Result: The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 70.7%. Hypertension, increased fasting blood sugar, increased triglycerides and decreased HDL were observed in 50.7%, 32.4%, 41.8% and 79.1% of the subjects respectively. Socio-economic and behavioral risk factors significantly associated with metabolic syndrome were gender male (OR=2.56, 955 CI: 1.42-4.63; p=0.002), in service or retired from service (OR=3.72, 95% CI: 1.72-8.03; p=0.001) and smoking (OR= 4.10, 95% CI: 1.19-14.07; p=0.016). Conclusion: Higher prevalence of Metabolic syndrome along with presence of behavioral risk factors in Terai region of Nepal likely suggest lack of awareness and health promotion activities for metabolic syndrome and indicate the need to promote public health programs in this region to maintain quality of life.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, Nepal, prevalence, risk factors, Terai

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Authors: Jenq-Shyong Chen, Ben-Fong Yu

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CNC(computer numerical control) machining centers have been widely used for machining different metal components for various industries. For a specific CNC machine, its everyday job is assigned to cut different products with quite different attributes such as material type, workpiece weight, geometry, tooling, and cutting conditions. Theoretically, the dynamic characteristics of the CNC machine should be properly tuned match each machining job in order to get the optimal machining performance. However, most of the CNC machines are set with only a standard set of CNC parameters. In this study, we have developed an auto-tuning system which can automatically change the CNC parameters and in hence change the machine dynamic characteristics according to the selection of machining modes which are set by the mixed combination of three machine performance indexes: the HO (high surface quality) index, HP (high precision) index and HS (high speed) index. The acceleration, jerk, corner error tolerance, oscillation and dynamic bandwidth of machine’s feed axes have been changed according to the selection of the machine performance indexes. The proposed auto-tuning system of the CNC parameters has been implemented on a PC-based CNC controller and a three-axis machining center. The measured experimental result have shown the promising of our proposed auto-tuning system.

Keywords: auto-tuning, CNC parameters, machining mode, high speed, high accuracy, high surface quality

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Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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Authors: Laras Tursilowati, Bambang Siswanto

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Urban climate change has short- and long-term implications for decision-makers in urban development. The problem for this important metropolitan regional of population and economic value is that there is very little usable information on climate change. Research about urban climate change has been carried out in Bali Indonesia by using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) that runs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5. The history data means average data from 1975 to 2005, climate projections with RCP4.5 scenario means average data from 2006 to 2099, and anomaly (urban climate change) is RCP4.5 minus history. The results are the history of temperature between 22.5-27.5 OC, and RCP4.5 between 25.5-29.5 OC. The temperature anomalies can be seen in most of northern Bali that increased by about 1.6 to 2.9 OC. There is a reduced humidity tendency (drier) in most parts of Bali, especially the northern part of Bali, while a small portion in the south increase moisture (wetter). The comfort index of Bali region in history is still relatively comfortable (20-26 OC), but on the condition RCP4.5 there is no comfortable area with index more than 26 OC (hot and dry). This research is expected to be useful to help the government make good urban planning.

Keywords: CCAM, comfort index, IPCC AR5, temperature, urban climate change

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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The growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012, almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price, and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package

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Authors: Saud Al Mahdi

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Traditionally,portfolio managers have been discouraged from timing the market. This means, for example, that equity managers have been forced to adhere strictly to a benchmark with static or relatively stable components, such as the SP 500 or the Russell 3000. This means that the portfolio’s exposures to all risk factors should mimic as closely as possible the corresponding exposures of the benchmark. The main risk factor, of course, is the market itself. Effectively, a long-only portfolio would be constrained to have a beta 1. More recently, however, managers have been given greater discretion to adjust their portfolio’s risk exposures (in particular, the beta of their portfolio) dynamically to match the manager’s beliefs about future performance of the risk factors themselves. This freedom translates into the manager’s ability to adjust the portfolio’s beta dynamically. These strategies have come to be known as smart beta strategies. Adjusting beta dynamically amounts to attempting to "time" the market; that is, to increase exposure when one anticipates that the market will rise, and to decrease it when one anticipates that the market will fall. Traditionally, market timing has been believed to be impossible to perform effectively and consistently. Moreover, if a majority of market participants do it, their combined actions could destabilize the market. The aim of this project is to investigate so-called smart beta strategies to determine if they really can add value, or if they are merely marketing gimmicks used to sell dubious investment strategies.

Keywords: beta, alpha, active portfolio management, trading strategies

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Authors: Aanh Eduardo Dimate-Garcia, Diana Carolina Rodriguez-Romero, Edna Yuliana Gonzalez Rincon, Diana Marcela Pardo Lopez, Yessica Garibello Cubillos

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Musculoskeletal disorders (MD) are the new epidemic of chronic diseases, are multifactorial and affect the different productive sectors. Although there are multiple instruments to evaluate the static and dynamic load, the method of repetitive occupational action (OCRA) seems to be an attractive option. Objective: It is aimed to analyze the use of the OCRA method and the prevalence of MD in workers of various productive sectors according to the literature (2007-2018). Materials and Methods: A literature review (following the PRISMA statement) of studies aimed at assessing the level of biomechanical risk (OCRA) and the prevalence of MD in the databases Scielo, Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest, Gale, PubMed, Lilacs and Ebsco was realized; 7 studies met the selection criteria; the majority are quantitative (cross section). Results: it was evidenced (gardening and flower-growers) in this review that 79% of the conditions related to the task require physical requirements and involve repetitive movements. In addition, of the high appearance of DM in the high-low back, upper and lower extremities that are produced by the frequency of the activities carried out (footwear production). Likewise, there was evidence of 'very high risks' of developing MD (salmon industry) and a medium index (OCRA) for repetitive movements that require special care (U-Assembly line). Conclusions: the review showed the limited use of the OCRA method for the detection of MD in workers from different sectors, and this method can be used for the detection of biomechanical risk and the appearance of MD.

Keywords: checklist, cumulative trauma disorders, musculoskeletal diseases, repetitive movements

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Authors: Anikó Kaluzsa

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The article's author aims to introduce and analyze those microbiological safety hazards which indicate the presence of secondary contamination in the water supply system. Since drinking water belongs to primary foods and is the basic condition of life, special attention should be paid on its quality. There are such indicators among the microbiological features can be found in water, which are clear evidence of the presence of water contamination, and based on this there is no need to perform other diagnostics, because they prove properly the contamination of the given water supply section. Laboratory analysis can help - both technologically and temporally – to identify contamination, but it does matter how long takes the removal and if the disinfection process takes place in time. The identification of the factors that often occur in the same places or the chance of their occurrence is greater than the average, facilitates our work. The pathogen microbiological risk assessment by the help of several features determines the most likely occurring microbiological features in the Carpathian basin. From among all the microbiological indicators, that are recommended targets for routine inspection by the World Health Organization, there is a paramount importance of the appearance of Escherichia coli in the water network, as its presence indicates the potential ubietiy of enteric pathogens or other contaminants in the water network. In addition, the author presents the steps of microbiological risk assessment analyzing those pathogenic micro-organisms registered to be the most critical.

Keywords: drinking water, E. coli, microbiological indicators, risk assessment, water safety plan

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Authors: Andi Fallahi, Bona Ryan Situmeang

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The Construction Industry is notoriously risky. Much of the preparatory paperwork that precedes construction project can be viewed as the formulation of risk allocation between the owner and the Contractor. The Owner is taking the risk that his project will not get built on the schedule that it will not get built for what he has budgeted and that it will not be of the quality he expected. The Contractor Face a multitude of risk. One of them is an unforeseen condition at the construction site. The Owner usually has the upper hand here if the unforeseen condition occurred. Site data contained in Ground Investigation report is often of significant contractual importance in disputes related to the unforeseen ground condition. A ground investigation can never fully disclose all the details of the underground condition (Risk of an unknown ground condition can never be 100% eliminated). Adipala Coal Fired Steam Power Plant (CSFPP) 1 x 660 project is one of the large CSFPP project in Indonesia based on Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Contract. Unforeseen Ground Condition it’s responsible by the Contractor has stipulated in the clausal of Contract. In the implementation, there’s indicated unforeseen ground condition at Circulating Water Pump House (CWPH) area which caused the Contractor should be changed the Method of Work that give big impact against Time of Completion and Cost Project. This paper tries to analyze the best way for allocating the risk between The Owner and The Contractor. All parties that allocating of sharing risk fairly can ultimately save time and money for all parties, and get the job done on schedule for the least overall cost.

Keywords: unforeseen ground condition, coal fired steam power plant, circulating water pump house, Indonesia

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Authors: Olivia R. Rendon

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More than half of the world population lives in cities, in the UK, for example, 82% of the population was urban by 2013. Cities concentrate valuable and numerous infrastructure and sectors of the national economies. Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change which will lead to higher damage costs in the future. There is thus a need to develop and invest in adaptation measures for cities to reduce the impact of flooding and other extreme weather events. Recent flood episodes present a significant and growing challenge to the UK and the estimated cost of urban flood damage is 270 million a year for England and Wales. This study aims to carry out cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a nature-based approach for flood risk management in cities, focusing on the city of Leeds and the wider Aire catchment as a case study. Leeds was chosen as a case study due to its being one of the most flood vulnerable cities in the UK. In Leeds, over 4,500 properties are currently vulnerable to flooding and approximately £450 million of direct damage is estimated for a potential major flood from the River Aire. Leeds is also the second largest Metropolitan District in England with a projected population of 770,000 for 2014. So far the city council has mainly focused its flood risk management efforts on hard infrastructure solutions for the city centre. However, the wider Leeds district is at significant flood risk which could benefit from greener adaptation measures. This study presents estimates of a nature-based adaptation approach for flood risk management in Leeds. This land use management estimate is based on generating costings utilising primary and secondary data. This research contributes findings on the costs of different adaptation measures to flood risk management in a UK city, including the trade-offs and challenges of utilising nature-based solutions. Results also explore the potential implementation of the adaptation measures in the case study and the challenges of data collection and analysis for adaptation in flood risk management.

Keywords: green infrastructure, ecosystem services, woodland, adaptation, flood risk

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Authors: Roohallah Fallah-Moshkani, Mohammad Ali Mohsenpour, Reza Ghiasvand, Hossein Khosravi-Boroujeni, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Paula Brauer, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Purpose: Several investigations have proposed the protective association between dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) style diet and risk of cancers; however, they have led to inconsistent results. The present study aimed to systematically review the prospective cohort studies conducted in this regard and, if possible, to quantify the overall effect of using meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched for cohort studies published up to December 2017. Relative risks (RRs) which were reported for fully adjusted models and their confidence intervals were extracted for meta-analysis. Random effects model was incorporated to combine the RRs. Results: Sixteen studies were eligible to be included in the systematic review from which 8 reports were conducted on the effect of DASH on the risk of mortality from all cancer types, four on the risk of colorectal cancer, and three on the risk of colon and rectal cancer. Four studies examined the association with other cancers (breast, hepatic, endometrial, and lung cancer). Meta-analysis showed that high concordance with DASH significantly decreases the risk of all cancer types (RR=0.83, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.80-0.85); furthermore participants who highly adhered to the DASH had lower risk of developing colorectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.75-0.83), colon (RR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.74-0.87) and rectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.63-0.98) cancer compared to those with the lowest adherence. Conclusions: DASH-style diet should be suggested as a healthy approach to protect from cancer in the community. Prospective studies exploring the effect on other cancer types and from regions other than the United States are highly recommended.

Keywords: cancer, DASH-style diet, dietary patterns, meta-analysis, systematic review

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Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Vahab Behmanesh

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Metabolic syndrome is defined as having at least three of the five metabolic risk factors, including abdominal obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low HDL, and insulin resistance. Lifestyle changes towards reducing physical activity, unhealthy eating habits Especially the high-fat and high-carbohydrate diet is directly related to metabolic syndrome, and due to the epidemic of overweight and sedentary life, metabolic syndrome is a serious problem worldwide. On the other hand, vitamin D deficiency is considered as one of the most common problems in the world, which is related to the dysfunction of beta cells and insulin resistance, and therefore, vitamin D deficiency is considered as a factor in the occurrence of metabolic syndrome. 40 subjects (age: 16.12 ± 4.4 years and body mass index 25.61 ± 4.4 kg/m2) were randomly assigned to groups of aerobic exercise and placebo, aerobic exercise and vitamin D and placebo (no exercise) were divided. Vitamin D was taken at a dose of 50,000 units per week in a double-blind format for eight weeks, and the daily aerobic exercise program was performed for 50 to 60 minutes, three doses per week, with an intensity of 50-60% of the maximum heart rate. From one-way analysis of variance, Factorial variance analysis (2x2) repeated measurement and correlated t-test were used for data analysis. Aerobic exercise and vitamin D intake reduced all metabolic risk indicators and blood insulin (P < 0.05). However, the subjective feeling of hunger did not change significantly (P < 0.05). Regarding waist circumference and blood glucose, the effect of exercise combined with vitamin D consumption was greater than the corresponding effect in the vitamin D group (P < 0.05). Aerobic exercises and vitamin D intake are safe and effective for improving cardiometabolic health, Imam adds vitamin D to the exercise program has more benefits for weight and blood sugar control, which suggests prescribing it for patients with metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: vitamin D, aerobic exercise, metabolic control, adolescents

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Authors: Hsien Hwa Kuo, Lin Wen Chun, Lin Wen Chun, Hsien Wen Kuo

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Objective: Nurses represent an important occupational group frequently affected by wrist musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) due to a heavy workload, working shifts, poor posture, giving shots, making beds, lifting patients, bending their waist and insufficient rest time every day. However, lack of research reported nurses whether workload in household correlated with the severity of WMSDs. Methods: 550 nurses from a hospital in Taoyuan were interviewed using a modified standardized Nordic Musculoskeletal (NMQ) questionnaire including the demographic information, workplace condition and nine body parts of musculoskeletal disorders. Results: 17.9% and 23.9% of severity and symptoms in WMSDs among nurses with children were significant higher than among nurses without children (1​2.4% and 15.9%). Based on multiple logistic regression models adjusted for age, work duration, job title and body mass index (BMI), we found that heavy workload in hospital had higher odds ratio (OR) of the severity and symptoms of WMSD among nurses with children (OR= 8.67 and OR= 4.30, p<0.05) compared to nurses without children (OR= 1.94 and OR= 1.70). Conclusion: The severity and symptoms of WMSDs among nurses significantly correlated with workload in hospital among nurses with children. If women are at greater risk because of the combination of their work and family demands, synergistic effect of WMSDs was found among nurses. Comment: Women's domestic work, especially once they become mothers, they invest more time and energy caring for children, helping others, and doing housework. Thus domestic work, per se, may be a risk factor for wrist musculoskeletal problems, and, more importantly, it may constrain women's ability to protect themselves from the effects of their paid work. If nurses with more domestic work periodically make efforts to physical activity or modify inappropriate posture, their WMSDs symptoms will be alleviated.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, nurse, NMQ, WMSDs

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Authors: Juntao Li

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The metasurfaces for beam deflecting with gradient silicon posts in the square lattices were fabricated on the thin film crystal silicon with quartz substrate. By using the crystals silicon with high refractive index and high transmission to control the phase over 2π coverage, we demonstrated the polarization independent beam deflecting at wavelength of 532nm with 45% transmission in experiment and 70% in simulation into the desired angle. This simulation efficiency is almost close to the TiO2 metasurfaces but has higher refractive index and lower aspect ratio to reduce fabrication complexity. The result can extend the application of silicon metalsurfaces from 700 nm to 500 nm hence open a new way to use metasurfaces efficiently in visible light regime.

Keywords: metasurfaces, crystal silicon, light deflection, visible light

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Authors: Huayun Zhai, Quan Hu, Wei-Chih Chiang, Jianjun Du

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By applying experimental methodology in the framework of the behavior-perception theory, this paper studies the relationship between information quality of corporates’ social responsibility (CSR) and individual investors’ risk perception, intermediated with individual investors’ perception on CSR. The findings are as follows: In general, the information quality of CSR significantly influences individual investors’ perception on investment risks. Furthermore, certification on CSR can help reinforce such perceptions. The higher the reporting quality of CSR is, accompanied by the certification by an independent third party, the more likely individual investors recognize the responsibilities. The research also found that the perception on CSR not only plays a role of intermediation between information quality about CSR and investors’ perception on investment risk but also intermediates the certification of CSR reports and individual investors’ judgment on investment risks. The main contributions of the research are in two folds. The first is that it supplements the research on CSR from the perspective of investors’ perceptions. The second is that the research provides theoretical and experimental evidence for enterprises to implement and improve reports on their social responsibilities.

Keywords: information quality, corporate social responsibility, report certification, individual investors’ perception on risk, perception of corporate social responsibility

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Authors: I. Agboola Julius, Christopher A. Kumolu-Johnson, O. Kolade Rafiu, A. Saba Abdulwakil

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This work elucidates on mangrove diversity, trends of change, factors responsible for loss over the years and implications for sustainable livelihoods of locals in four villages (Ajido (L1), Tarkwa bay (L2), University of Lagos (L3), and Ikosi (L4)) along the coast of Lagos, Nigeria. Primary data were collected through field survey, questionnaires, interviews, and review of existing literature. Field observation and data analysis reveals mangrove diversity as low and varied on a spatial scale, where Margalef’s Diversity Index (D) was 0.368, 0.269, 0.326, and 0.333, respectively for L1, L2, L3, and L4. Shannon Weiner’s Index (H) was estimated to be 1.003, 1.460, 1.160, 1.046, and Specie Richness (E) 0.913, 0.907, 0.858, and 0.015, respectively, for the four villages. Also, The Simpson’s index of diversity was analyzed to be 0.632, 0. 731, 0.647, 0.667, and Simpson’s reciprocal index 2.717, 3.717, 3.060, and 3.003, respectively, for the four villages. Chi-square test was used to analyze the impact of mangrove loss on the sustainable livelihood of coastal communities. Calculated Chi-square (X2) value (5) was higher than tabulated value (4.30), suggesting that loss of mangrove wetlands impacted on local communities’ livelihood at the four villages. Analyses of causes and trends of mangrove wetland loss over the years suggest that urbanization, fuel wood and agricultural activities are major causes. Current degradation observed in mangrove wetlands on the Lagos coast suggest a reduction in mangroves biodiversity and associated fauna with potential cascading effects on higher trophic levels such as fisheries. Low yield in fish catch, reduction in income and increasing cases of natural disaster has culminated in threats to sustainable livelihoods of local communities along the coast of Lagos.

Keywords: Mangroves, lagos coast, fisheries, management

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Authors: Frederick N. F. Chou, Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh

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The impact of water shortages has been increasingly severe as a consequence of population growth, urbanization, economic development, and climate change. The need for improvements in reliable water supply systems is urgent with the increasing living standards of regions. In this study, a suitable shortage index capable of multi-aspect description - frequency, magnitude, and duration - is adopted to more accurately describe the characteristics of a shortage situation. The values of the index were determined to cope with the increasing need for reliability. There are four reservoirs in series located on the Be River of the Dong Nai River Basin in Southern Vietnam. The primary purpose of the three upstream reservoirs is hydropower generation while the primary purpose of the fourth is water supply. A compromise between hydropower generation and water supply can be negotiated for these four reservoirs to reduce the severity of water shortages. A generalized water allocation model was applied to simulate the water supply, and hydropower generation of various management alternatives and the system’s reliability was evaluated using the adopted multiple shortage indices. Modifying management policies of water resources using data-based indexes can improve the reliability of water supply.

Keywords: cascade reservoirs, hydropower, shortage index, water supply

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie, Ruba Najdawi, Nour Bata, Mohammad D. AL-Tahat

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The pharmaceutical industry is an important component of health care systems throughout the world. Measurement of a production unit-performance is crucial in determining whether it has achieved its objectives or not. This paper applies data envelopment (DEA) window analysis to assess the efficiencies of two packaging lines; Allfill (new) and DP6, in the Penicillin plant in a Jordanian Medical Company in 2010. The CCR and BCC models are used to estimate the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency. Further, the Malmquist productivity index is computed to measure then employed to assess productivity growth relative to a reference technology. Two primary issues are addressed in computation of Malmquist indices of productivity growth. The first issue is the measurement of productivity change over the period, while the second is to decompose changes in productivity into what are generally referred to as a ‘catching-up’ effect (efficiency change) and a ‘frontier shift’ effect (technological change). Results showed that DP6 line outperforms the Allfill in technical and pure technical efficiency. However, the Allfill line outperforms DP6 line in scale efficiency. The obtained efficiency values can guide production managers in taking effective decisions related to operation, management, and plant size. Moreover, both machines exhibit a clear fluctuations in technological change, which is the main reason for the positive total factor productivity change. That is, installing a new Allfill production line can be of great benefit to increasing productivity. In conclusions, the DEA window analysis combined with the Malmquist index are supportive measures in assessing efficiency and productivity in pharmaceutical industry.

Keywords: window analysis, malmquist index, efficiency, productivity

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Authors: Jose Cristiano Pereira, Gilson Brito Alves Lima

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Ergonomics is a key factor affecting the operational safety and quality in the aircraft engine manufacturing industry and evidence shows that the lack of attention to it can increase the risk of accidents. In order to emphasize the importance of ergonomics, this paper systematically reviews the critical processes used in the aircraft engine production industry with focus on the ergonomic factors. about the subject to identify key ergonomic factors. Experts validated the factors and used AHP to rank the factors in order of significance. From the six key risk factors identified, the ones with the highest weight are psychological demand followed by understanding of operational side. These factors suggest that measures must be taken to improve ergonomic factors, quality and safety in the manufacturing of aircraft engines.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, aviation, aircraft engine production

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Authors: Lalrokima Chenkual

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Legal provision and various guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in India strives for setting up of disaster management authority from the central government to the district level. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction practice is still relevant as the communities are the victim as well as the first responder in any incidents. The primary goal of Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction is to reduce vulnerability of the concerned community and strengthen its existing capacity to cope with disaster. By involving the community in the preparedness phase, it not only increases the likelihood of coordinated action by the communities to help in mitigating disasters and lessening the impact of disaster but also brings the community together to address the issue collectively. Community participation ensures local ownership, addresses local needs, and promotes volunteerism and mutual help to prevent and minimise damage. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction is very much relevant for Mizoram as the society is closed knit, population is very less, religion homogeneity i.e Christianity, very active and widespread community-based organization viz, Young Mizo Association, MHIP (Women Federation), MUP (Elders Clubs which are guided together by Mizo code of morals conduct termed as Tlawmngaihna.

Keywords: community, close-knit, first responder, Tlawmngaihna

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Authors: Nima Amani, Ali Salehi Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Ardalan Sabamehr

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The cost overrun of the construction projects has always been one of the main problems of the construction companies caused by the risky nature of the construction projects. Therefore, today, the application of risk management is inevitable. Although in theory, the issue of risk management is divided into the opportunities and threats management, in practice, most of the projects have been focused on the threats management. However, considering the opportunities management and applying the opportunities-response strategies can lead to the improved profitability of the construction projects of the companies. In this paper, a new technique is developed to identify the opportunities in the construction projects using an improved protocol and propose the appropriate opportunities-response strategies to the construction companies to provide them with higher profitability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the protocol for selecting the most appropriate strategies in ‎response to the opportunities and threats, two projects from a construction company in Iran were ‎studied. Both projects selected were in mid-range in terms of size and similar in terms of time, ‎run time and costs. Finally, the output indicates that using the proposed opportunities-response strategies show that the company's profitability in the future can be increased approximately for similar projects.

Keywords: opportunities management, risk-response strategy, opportunity-response strategy, productivity, risk management

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Authors: Patience Muchini, Electdom Matandiroya, Emmanuel Mashonjowa

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A ground-end manifestation of space weather phenomena is known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). GICs flow along the electric power transmission cables connecting the transformers and between the grounding points of power transformers during significant geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetically induced currents have been studied in other regions and have been noted to affect the power grid network. In Zimbabwe, grid failures have been experienced, but it is yet to be proven if these failures have been due to GICs. The purpose of this paper is to characterize geomagnetically induced currents with a power grid network. This paper analyses data collected, which is geomagnetic data, which includes the Kp index, DST index, and the G-Scale from geomagnetic storms and also analyses power grid data, which includes reactive power, relay tripping, and alarms from high voltage substations and then correlates the data. This research analysis was first theoretically analyzed by studying geomagnetic parameters and then experimented upon. To correlate, MATLAB was used as the basic software to analyze the data. Latitudes of the substations were also brought into scrutiny to note if they were an impact due to the location as low latitudes areas like most parts of Zimbabwe, there are less severe geomagnetic variations. Based on theoretical and graphical analysis, it has been proven that there is a slight relationship between power system failures and GICs. Further analyses can be done by implementing measuring instruments to measure any currents in the grounding of high-voltage transformers when geomagnetic storms occur. Mitigation measures can then be developed to minimize the susceptibility of the power network to GICs.

Keywords: adverse space weather, DST index, geomagnetically induced currents, KP index, reactive power

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

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Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Waleed El-Said Abou El-Amaiem

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Sole hemorrhages are considered as a main cause for sub clinical laminitis. In this study we aimed at discussing the most prominent risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. The final multivariate logistic regression model showed, a significant association between sub acute ruminal acidosis (P< 0.05), limb affected (P< 0.05) and weight (P< 0.05) and sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. According to our knowledge, this is the first paper to discuss the risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows.

Keywords: lameness, buffalo, sole hemorrhages, breed cows

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Authors: Theresa Adderley

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Background: Aside from abstinence, correct and consistent use of latex condoms is the best known effective method to reduce HIV transmission among sexually active heterosexual individuals. When condoms are correctly used, the risk of HIV transmission is reduced by approximately 85%, relative to risk when not protected during sexual intercourse. The literature provides evidence that heterosexual young adults continue to be the group among whom STI rates are highest and the group that engages in more sexual risk-taking behaviors such as inconsistent or no condom usage. This study examines condom attitudes, condom use self-efficacy and their contributions to safer sex behaviors among heterosexual men living in The Bahamas. Methods: Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, and a convenience sample of 185 heterosexual males (Mage= 31.95, SD = 11.35), three standardized instruments were used to assess behaviors that may not only place heterosexual males at risk for HIV infection but also their female partners. Results: The results of this study suggest that condom attitudes, and condom use self-efficacy are important in explaining 24% variance in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men. Income (β= -.15, p < .01; condom attitudes, (β= .36, p < .01), and condom use self-efficacy (β= .1, p < .01) were significantly associated with safer sex behaviors. Conclusion: Rather than focusing only on the use of safer sex behaviors, an effective HIV prevention strategy must consider condom attitudes and condom use self-efficacy as specific variables that may contribute to perpetuating the transmission of HIV.

Keywords: condom attitudes, safer sex behaviors, HIV, condom self-efficacy

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Authors: Marzieh Ahmadi, Ruhullah Alikhan Gorgani

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The usual methods of measuring regional inequalities can not reflect the internal changes of the country in terms of their displacement in different development groups, and the indicators of inequalities are not effective in demonstrating the dynamics of the distribution of inequality. For this purpose, this paper examines the dynamics of the urban inertial transport in the country during the period of 2006-2016 using the CIRD multidimensional index and stochastic kernel density method. it firstly selects 25 indicators in five dimensions including macroeconomic conditions, science and innovation, environmental sustainability, human capital and public facilities, and two-stage Principal Component Analysis methodology are developed to create a composite index of inequality. Then, in the second stage, using a nonparametric analytical approach to internal distribution dynamics and a stochastic kernel density method, the convergence hypothesis of the CIRD index of the Iranian provinces center is tested, and then, based on the ergodic density, long-run equilibrium is shown. Also, at this stage, for the purpose of adopting accurate regional policies, the distribution dynamics and process of convergence or divergence of the Iranian provinces for each of the five. According to the results of the first Stage, in 2006 & 2016, the highest level of development is related to Tehran and zahedan is at the lowest level of development. The results show that the central cities of the country are at the highest level of development due to the effects of Tehran's knowledge spillover and the country's lower cities are at the lowest level of development. The main reason for this may be the lack of access to markets in the border provinces. Based on the results of the second stage, which examines the dynamics of regional inequality transmission in the country during 2006-2016, the first year (2006) is not multifaceted and according to the kernel density graph, the CIRD index of about 70% of the cities. The value is between -1.1 and -0.1. The rest of the sequence on the right is distributed at a level higher than -0.1. In the kernel distribution, a convergence process is observed and the graph points to a single peak. Tends to be a small peak at about 3 but the main peak at about-0.6. According to the chart in the final year (2016), the multidimensional pattern remains and there is no mobility in the lower level groups, but at the higher level, the CIRD index accounts for about 45% of the provinces at about -0.4 Take it. That this year clearly faces the twin density pattern, which indicates that the cities tend to be closely related to each other in terms of development, so that the cities are low in terms of development. Also, according to the distribution dynamics results, the provinces of Iran follow the single-density density pattern in 2006 and the double-peak density pattern in 2016 at low and moderate inequality index levels and also in the development index. The country diverges during the years 2006 to 2016.

Keywords: Urban Disparity, CIRD Index, Convergence, Distribution Dynamics, Random Kernel Density

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

Abstract:

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

Procedia PDF Downloads 131