Search results for: variance inflation factor (VIF)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6354

Search results for: variance inflation factor (VIF)

5244 Lead Removal From Ex- Mining Pond Water by Electrocoagulation: Kinetics, Isotherm, and Dynamic Studies

Authors: Kalu Uka Orji, Nasiman Sapari, Khamaruzaman W. Yusof

Abstract:

Exposure of galena (PbS), tealite (PbSnS2), and other associated minerals during mining activities release lead (Pb) and other heavy metals into the mining water through oxidation and dissolution. Heavy metal pollution has become an environmental challenge. Lead, for instance, can cause toxic effects to human health, including brain damage. Ex-mining pond water was reported to contain lead as high as 69.46 mg/L. Conventional treatment does not easily remove lead from water. A promising and emerging treatment technology for lead removal is the application of the electrocoagulation (EC) process. However, some of the problems associated with EC are systematic reactor design, selection of maximum EC operating parameters, scale-up, among others. This study investigated an EC process for the removal of lead from synthetic ex-mining pond water using a batch reactor and Fe electrodes. The effects of various operating parameters on lead removal efficiency were examined. The results obtained indicated that the maximum removal efficiency of 98.6% was achieved at an initial PH of 9, the current density of 15mA/cm2, electrode spacing of 0.3cm, treatment time of 60 minutes, Liquid Motion of Magnetic Stirring (LM-MS), and electrode arrangement = BP-S. The above experimental data were further modeled and optimized using a 2-Level 4-Factor Full Factorial design, a Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The four factors optimized were the current density, electrode spacing, electrode arrangements, and Liquid Motion Driving Mode (LM). Based on the regression model and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) at 0.01%, the results showed that an increase in current density and LM-MS increased the removal efficiency while the reverse was the case for electrode spacing. The model predicted the optimal lead removal efficiency of 99.962% with an electrode spacing of 0.38 cm alongside others. Applying the predicted parameters, the lead removal efficiency of 100% was actualized. The electrode and energy consumptions were 0.192kg/m3 and 2.56 kWh/m3 respectively. Meanwhile, the adsorption kinetic studies indicated that the overall lead adsorption system belongs to the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. The adsorption dynamics were also random, spontaneous, and endothermic. The higher temperature of the process enhances adsorption capacity. Furthermore, the adsorption isotherm fitted the Freundlish model more than the Langmuir model; describing the adsorption on a heterogeneous surface and showed good adsorption efficiency by the Fe electrodes. Adsorption of Pb2+ onto the Fe electrodes was a complex reaction, involving more than one mechanism. The overall results proved that EC is an efficient technique for lead removal from synthetic mining pond water. The findings of this study would have application in the scale-up of EC reactor and in the design of water treatment plants for feed-water sources that contain lead using the electrocoagulation method.

Keywords: ex-mining water, electrocoagulation, lead, adsorption kinetics

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5243 Detection of Change Points in Earthquakes Data: A Bayesian Approach

Authors: F. A. Al-Awadhi, D. Al-Hulail

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In this study, we applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to detect single and multiple change points for daily earthquake body wave magnitude. The change point analysis is used in both backward (off-line) and forward (on-line) statistical research. In this study, it is used with the backward approach. Different types of change parameters are considered (mean, variance or both). The posterior model and the conditional distributions for single and multiple change points are derived and implemented using BUGS software. The model is applicable for any set of data. The sensitivity of the model is tested using different prior and likelihood functions. Using Mb data, we concluded that during January 2002 and December 2003, three changes occurred in the mean magnitude of Mb in Kuwait and its vicinity.

Keywords: multiple change points, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, earthquake magnitude, hierarchical Bayesian mode

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5242 Investigation of Elastic Properties of 3D Full Five Directional (f5d) Braided Composite Materials

Authors: Apeng Dong, Shu Li, Wenguo Zhu, Ming Qi, Qiuyi Xu

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The primary objective of this paper is to focus on the elasticity properties of three-dimensional full five directional (3Df5d) braided composite. A large body of research has been focused on the 3D four directional (4d) and 3D five directional (5d) structure but not much research on the 3Df5d material. Generally, the influence of the yarn shape on mechanical properties of braided materials tends to be ignored, which makes results too ideal. Besides, with the improvement of the computational ability, people are accustomed to using computers to predict the material parameters, which fails to give an explicit and concise result facilitating production and application. Based on the traditional mechanics, this paper firstly deduced the functional relation between elasticity properties and braiding parameters. In addition, considering the actual shape of yarns after consolidation, the longitudinal modulus is modified and defined practically. Firstly, the analytic model is established based on the certain assumptions for the sake of clarity, this paper assumes that: A: the cross section of axial yarns is square; B: The cross section of braiding yarns is hexagonal; C: the characters of braiding yarns and axial yarns are the same; D: The angle between the structure boundary and the projection of braiding yarns in transverse plane is 45°; E: The filling factor ε of composite yarns is π/4; F: The deformation of unit cell is under constant strain condition. Then, the functional relation between material constants and braiding parameters is systematically deduced aimed at the yarn deformation mode. Finally, considering the actual shape of axial yarns after consolidation, the concept of technology factor is proposed and the longitudinal modulus of the material is modified based on the energy theory. In this paper, the analytic solution of material parameters is given for the first time, which provides a good reference for further research and application for 3Df5d materials. Although the analysis model is established based on certain assumptions, the analysis method is also applicable for other braided structures. Meanwhile, it is crucial that the cross section shape and straightness of axial yarns play dominant roles in the longitudinal elastic property. So in the braiding and solidifying process, the stability of the axial yarns should be guaranteed to increase the technology factor to reduce the dispersion of material parameters. Overall, the elastic properties of this materials are closely related to the braiding parameters and can be strongly designable, and although the longitudinal modulus of the material is greatly influenced by the technology factors, it can be defined to certain extent.

Keywords: analytic solution, braided composites, elasticity properties, technology factor

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5241 Trend and Distribution of Heavy Metals in Soil and Sediment: North of Thailand Region

Authors: Chatkaew Tansakul, Saovajit Nanruksa, Surasak Chonchirdsin

Abstract:

Heavy metals in the environment can be occurred by both natural weathering process and human activity, which may present significant risks to human health and the wider environment. A number of heavy metals, i.e. Arsenic (As) and Manganese (Mn), are found with a relatively high concentration in the northern part of Thailand that was assumptively from natural parent rocks and materials. However, scarce literature is challenging to identify the accurate root cause and best available explanation. This study is, therefore, aim to gather heavy metals data in 5 provinces of the North of Thailand where PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) public company limited has operated for more than 20 years. A thousand heavy metal analysis is collected and interpreted in term of Enrichment Factor (EF). The trend and distribution of heavy metals in soil and sediment are analyzed by considering altogether the geochemistry of the regional soil and rock. . In addition, the relationship between land use and heavy metals distribution is investigated. In the first conclusion, heavy metal concentrations of (As) and (Mn) in the studied areas are equal to 7.0 and 588.6 ppm, respectively, which are comparable to those in regional parent materials (1 – 12 and 850 – 1,000 ppm for As and Mn respectively). Moreover, there is an insignificant escalation of the heavy metals in these studied areas over two decades.

Keywords: contaminated soil, enrichment factor, heavy metals, parent materials in North of Thailand

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5240 The Parental Involvement as Predictor of Happiness in School-Aged Children

Authors: Giedre Sirvinskiene, Kastytis Smigelskas

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Quality of family relations is an important factor of child development, however, the role of joint family activities on adolescent happiness still needs investigation. The aim of this study is to analyze associations between happiness of school-aged children and parental involvement. The analysis involves Lithuanian data from the cross-sectional Health Behaviour in School Aged Children (HBSC) study. The sample comprised 5730 children aged 11–15 years. Results: The odds of happiness was 2.38 times higher if children were living together with mother (95% CI: 1.81–3.13) and 1.81 times – with father (95% CI: 1.53–2.15). However, the likelihood of happiness was 7.21 times lower if adolescent had difficulties to talk with mother (95% CI: 5.42–9.61) and 6.40 times – with father (95% CI: 4.80–8.56). The joint daily adolescents-parents activities also predict the odds for happiness: joint TV watching by 5.96 times (95% CI: 4.21–8.43), having meals together by 7.02 times (95% CI: 4.77–10.32), going for a walk together 4.30 times (95% CI: 2.96–6.26), visiting places by 6.85 times (95% CI: 4.74–9.90), visiting friends and relatives by 7.13 times (95% CI: 4.87–10.43), sporting by 2.76 (95% CI: 1.83–4.18) as well as discussing various things by 7.35 times (95% CI: 5.50–9.82). Conclusions: Joint parents-adolescents activities and communication are related with greater happiness of adolescent. Though adolescence is a period when the relationships with peers get more importance, the communication and joint activities with parents remain a significant factor of adolescent happiness.

Keywords: adolescent, family, happiness, school-age

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5239 Association of the Time in Targeted Blood Glucose Range of 3.9–10 Mmol/L with the Mortality of Critically Ill Patients with or without Diabetes

Authors: Guo Yu, Haoming Ma, Peiru Zhou

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: In addition to hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glycemic variability, a decrease in the time in the targeted blood glucose range (TIR) may be associated with an increased risk of death for critically ill patients. However, the relationship between the TIR and mortality may be influenced by the presence of diabetes and glycemic variability. METHODS: A total of 998 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The TIR is defined as the percentage of time spent in the target blood glucose range of 3.9–10.0 mmol/L within 24 hours. The relationship between TIR and in-hospital in diabetic and non-diabetic patients was analyzed. The effect of glycemic variability was also analyzed. RESULTS: The binary logistic regression model showed that there was a significant association between the TIR as a continuous variable and the in-hospital death of severely ill non-diabetic patients (OR=0.991, P=0.015). As a classification variable, TIR≥70% was significantly associated with in-hospital death (OR=0.581, P=0.003). Specifically, TIR≥70% was a protective factor for the in-hospital death of severely ill non-diabetic patients. The TIR of severely ill diabetic patients was not significantly associated with in-hospital death; however, glycemic variability was significantly and independently associated with in-hospital death (OR=1.042, P=0.027). Binary logistic regression analysis of comprehensive indices showed that for non-diabetic patients, the C3 index (low TIR & high CV) was a risk factor for increased mortality (OR=1.642, P<0.001). In addition, for diabetic patients, the C3 index was an independent risk factor for death (OR=1.994, P=0.008), and the C4 index (low TIR & low CV) was independently associated with increased survival. CONCLUSIONS: The TIR of non-diabetic patients during ICU hospitalization was associated with in-hospital death even after adjusting for disease severity and glycemic variability. There was no significant association between the TIR and mortality of diabetic patients. However, for both diabetic and non-diabetic critically ill patients, the combined effect of high TIR and low CV was significantly associated with ICU mortality. Diabetic patients seem to have higher blood glucose fluctuations and can tolerate a large TIR range. Both diabetic and non-diabetic critically ill patients should maintain blood glucose levels within the target range to reduce mortality.

Keywords: severe disease, diabetes, blood glucose control, time in targeted blood glucose range, glycemic variability, mortality

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5238 Estimation of Implicit Colebrook White Equation by Preferable Explicit Approximations in the Practical Turbulent Pipe Flow

Authors: Itissam Abuiziah

Abstract:

In several hydraulic systems, it is necessary to calculate the head losses which depend on the resistance flow friction factor in Darcy equation. Computing the resistance friction is based on implicit Colebrook-White equation which is considered as the standard for the friction calculation, but it needs high computational cost, therefore; several explicit approximation methods are used for solving an implicit equation to overcome this issue. It follows that the relative error is used to determine the most accurate method among the approximated used ones. Steel, cast iron and polyethylene pipe materials investigated with practical diameters ranged from 0.1m to 2.5m and velocities between 0.6m/s to 3m/s. In short, the results obtained show that the suitable method for some cases may not be accurate for other cases. For example, when using steel pipe materials, Zigrang and Silvester's method has revealed as the most precise in terms of low velocities 0.6 m/s to 1.3m/s. Comparatively, Halland method showed a less relative error with the gradual increase in velocity. Accordingly, the simulation results of this study might be employed by the hydraulic engineers, so they can take advantage to decide which is the most applicable method according to their practical pipe system expectations.

Keywords: Colebrook–White, explicit equation, friction factor, hydraulic resistance, implicit equation, Reynolds numbers

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5237 Factor Associated with Smoking Cessation among Pregnant Woman: A Systematic Review

Authors: Galila Aisyah Latif Amini, Husnul Khatimah, Citra Amelia

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Smoking among women is of particular concern for the maternal and child health community due to the strong association between prenatal smoking and adverse birth outcomes. Pregnancy is perceived to be a unique reason for smoking cessation, as motivation to care for the unborn fetus. This study aimed to find out the determinants of smoking cessation among pregnant women. Method that we use in this study is systematic review. We identified relevant studies by searching on science database online through SAGE journals, Proquest, Scopus, Emerald, JSTOR, and Springerlink. Journals were screened by title and abstract according to the research topic then filtered using the criteria exclusion and inclusion. And then we did critical appraisal. The results of the four studies reviewed were found that the determinant of smoking cessation are parity, the level of education, socioeconomic status, household SHS exposure, smoking habits of both parents, partner smoking status, psychological factors, antenatal care, intervention for health care provider, age smoking duration. The factor most strongly associated with smoking cessation is parity (OR 2,55; Cl 2,34-2,77). The results of this study are expected to give advice for developing future smoking cessation and relapse prevention programs.

Keywords: pregnancy, smoking cessation, tobacco use cessation, smoking

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5236 A Framework for Incorporating Non-Linear Degradation of Conductive Adhesive in Environmental Testing

Authors: Kedar Hardikar, Joe Varghese

Abstract:

Conductive adhesives have found wide-ranging applications in electronics industry ranging from fixing a defective conductor on printed circuit board (PCB) attaching an electronic component in an assembly to protecting electronics components by the formation of “Faraday Cage.” The reliability requirements for the conductive adhesive vary widely depending on the application and expected product lifetime. While the conductive adhesive is required to maintain the structural integrity, the electrical performance of the associated sub-assembly can be affected by the degradation of conductive adhesive. The degradation of the adhesive is dependent upon the highly varied use case. The conventional approach to assess the reliability of the sub-assembly involves subjecting it to the standard environmental test conditions such as high-temperature high humidity, thermal cycling, high-temperature exposure to name a few. In order to enable projection of test data and observed failures to predict field performance, systematic development of an acceleration factor between the test conditions and field conditions is crucial. Common acceleration factor models such as Arrhenius model are based on rate kinetics and typically rely on an assumption of linear degradation in time for a given condition and test duration. The application of interest in this work involves conductive adhesive used in an electronic circuit of a capacitive sensor. The degradation of conductive adhesive in high temperature and humidity environment is quantified by the capacitance values. Under such conditions, the use of established models such as Hallberg-Peck model or Eyring Model to predict time to failure in the field typically relies on linear degradation rate. In this particular case, it is seen that the degradation is nonlinear in time and exhibits a square root t dependence. It is also shown that for the mechanism of interest, the presence of moisture is essential, and the dominant mechanism driving the degradation is the diffusion of moisture. In this work, a framework is developed to incorporate nonlinear degradation of the conductive adhesive for the development of an acceleration factor. This method can be extended to applications where nonlinearity in degradation rate can be adequately characterized in tests. It is shown that depending on the expected product lifetime, the use of conventional linear degradation approach can overestimate or underestimate the field performance. This work provides guidelines for suitability of linear degradation approximation for such varied applications

Keywords: conductive adhesives, nonlinear degradation, physics of failure, acceleration factor model.

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5235 An Experimental Analysis of Squeeze Casting Parameters for 2017 a Wrought Al Alloy

Authors: Mohamed Ben Amar, Najib Souissi, Chedly Bradai

Abstract:

A Taguchi design investigation has been made into the relationship between the ductility and process variables in a squeeze cast 2017A wrought aluminium alloy. The considered process parameters were: squeeze pressure, melt temperature and die preheating temperature. An orthogonal array (OA), main effect, signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) are employed to analyze the effect of casting parameters. The results have shown that the selected parameters significantly affect the ductility of 2017A wrought Al alloy castings. Optimal squeeze cast process parameters were provided to illustrate the proposed approach and the results were proven to be trustworthy through practical experiments.

Keywords: Taguchi method, squeeze casting, process parameters, ductility, microstructure

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5234 Different Biological and Chemical Parameters that Influence the Polyphenols from Some Medicinal Plants in Western Algeria

Authors: Mustapha Mahmoud, Fouzia Toumi Benali, Mohamed Benyahia, Sofiane Bouazza

Abstract:

This work focuses on the influences of biological and chemical parameters on the phenolic compounds such as flavonoids and tannins in different medicinal plants in western Algeria (Papaver rhoeas, Daphnegnidium, Lavandula multifida, Lavandula dentata, Lavandula stoicha, ...). Thus we look the difference between species of the same genus, difference between the different organs of the same species, the influence of environment all temperature influences, time, percentage of solvent on the extraction. Quantification of the phenolic compounds was performed by spectrophotometric method then treated with statistics tools such as variance analysis, multivariant analyzes, response surface methodology). The results show that the polyphenols are influenced by the parameters mentioned.

Keywords: polyphenols, influences, medicinal plants, west Algeria

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5233 Thermal Behaviors of the Strong Form Factors of Charmonium and Charmed Beauty Mesons from Three Point Sum Rules

Authors: E. Yazıcı, H. Sundu, E. Veli Veliev

Abstract:

In order to understand the nature of strong interactions and QCD vacuum, investigation of the meson coupling constants have an important role. The knowledge on the temperature dependence of the form factors is very important for the interpretation of heavy-ion collision experiments. Also, more accurate determination of these coupling constants plays a crucial role in understanding of the hadronic decays. With the increasing of CM energies of the experiments, researches on meson interactions have become one of the more interesting problems of hadronic physics. In this study, we analyze the temperature dependence of the strong form factor of the BcBcJ/ψ vertex using the three point QCD sum rules method. Here, we assume that with replacing the vacuum condensates and also the continuum threshold by their thermal version, the sum rules for the observables remain valid. In calculations, we take into account the additional operators, which appear in the Wilson expansion at finite temperature. We also investigated the momentum dependence of the form factor at T = 0, fit it into an analytic function, and extrapolate into the deep time-like region in order to obtain a strong coupling constant of the vertex. Our results are consistent with the results existing in the literature.

Keywords: QCD sum rules, thermal QCD, heavy mesons, strong coupling constants

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5232 A System Dynamics Approach to Exploring Personality Traits in Young Children

Authors: Misagh Faezipour

Abstract:

System dynamics is a systems engineering approach that can help address the complex challenges in different systems. Little is known about how the brain represents people to predict behavior. This work is based on how the brain simulates different personal behavior and responds to them in the case of young children ages one to five. As we know, children’s minds/brains are just as clean as a crystal, and throughout time, in their surroundings, families, and education center, they grow to develop and have different kinds of behavior towards the world and the society they live in. Hence, this work aims to identify how young children respond to various personality behavior and observes their reactions towards them from a system dynamics perspective. We will be exploring the Big Five personality traits in young children. A causal model is developed in support of the system dynamics approach. These models graphically present the factors and factor relationships that contribute to the big five personality traits and provide a better understanding of the entire behavior model. A simulator will be developed that includes a set of causal model factors and factor relationships. The simulator models the behavior of different factors related to personality traits and their impacts and can help make more informed decisions in a risk-free environment.

Keywords: personality traits, systems engineering, system dynamics, causal model, behavior model

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5231 Serum Neurotrophins in Different Metabolic Types of Obesity

Authors: Irina M. Kolesnikova, Andrey M. Gaponov, Sergey A. Roumiantsev, Tatiana V. Grigoryeva, Alexander V. Laikov, Alexander V. Shestopalov

Abstract:

Background. Neuropathy is a common complication of obesity. In this regard, the content of neurotrophins in such patients is of particular interest. Neurotrophins are the proteins that regulate neuron survival and neuroplasticity and include brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF). However, the risk of complications depends on the metabolic type of obesity. Metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUHO) is associated with a high risk of complications, while this is not the case with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO). Therefore, the aim of our work was to study the effect of the obesity metabolic type on serum neurotrophins levels. Patients, materials, methods. The study included 134 healthy donors and 104 obese patients. Depending on the metabolic type of obesity, the obese patients were divided into subgroups with MHO (n=40) and MUHO (n=55). In the blood serum, the concentration of BDNF and NGF was determined. In addition, the content of adipokines (leptin, asprosin, resistin, adiponectin), myokines (irisin, myostatin, osteocrin), indicators of carbohydrate, and lipid metabolism were measured. Correlation analysis revealed the relationship between the studied parameters. Results. We found that serum BDNF concentration was not different between obese patients and healthy donors, regardless of obesity metabolic type. At the same time, in obese patients, there was a decrease in serum NGF level versus control. A similar trend was characteristic of both MHO and MUHO. However, MUHO patients had a higher NGF level than MHO patients. The literature indicates that obesity is associated with an increase in the plasma concentration of NGF. It can be assumed that in obesity, there is a violation of NGF storage in platelets, which accelerates neurotrophin degradation. We found that BDNF concentration correlated with irisin levels in MUHO patients. Healthy donors had a weak association between NGF and VEGF levels. No such association was found in obese patients, but there was an association between NGF and leptin concentrations. In MHO, the concentration of NHF correlated with the content of leptin, irisin, osteocrin, insulin, and the HOMA-IR index. But in MUHO patients, we found only the relationship between NGF and adipokines (leptin, asprosin). It can be assumed that in patients with MHO, the replenishment of serum NGF occurs under the influence of muscle and adipose tissue. In the MUHO patients only the effect of adipose tissue on NGF was observed. Conclusion. Obesity, regardless of metabolic type, is associated with a decrease in serum NGF concentration. We showed that muscle and adipose tissues make a significant contribution to the serum NGF pool in the MHO patients. In MUHO there is no effect of muscle on the NGF level, but the effect of adipose tissue remains.

Keywords: neurotrophins, nerve growth factor, NGF, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, BDNF, obesity, metabolically healthy obesity, metabolically unhealthy obesity

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5230 The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Dynamics of Resistance to Sovereignty Violation: The Case of East Timor (1975-1999)

Authors: Laura Southgate

Abstract:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as much of the scholarship on the organisation, celebrates its ability to uphold the principle of regional autonomy, understood as upholding the norm of non-intervention by external powers in regional affairs. Yet, in practice, this has been repeatedly violated. This dichotomy between rhetoric and practice suggests an interesting avenue for further study. The East Timor crisis (1975-1999) has been selected as a case-study to test the dynamics of ASEAN state resistance to sovereignty violation in two distinct timeframes: Indonesia’s initial invasion of the territory in 1975, and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in 1999 which resulted in a UN-mandated, Australian-led peacekeeping intervention force. These time-periods demonstrate variation on the dependent variable. It is necessary to observe covariation in order to derive observations in support of a causal theory. To establish covariation, my independent variable is therefore a continuous variable characterised by variation in convergence of interest. Change of this variable should change the value of the dependent variable, thus establishing causal direction. This paper investigates the history of ASEAN’s relationship to the norm of non-intervention. It offers an alternative understanding of ASEAN’s history, written in terms of the relationship between a key ASEAN state, which I call a ‘vanguard state’, and selected external powers. This paper will consider when ASEAN resistance to sovereignty violation has succeeded, and when it has failed. It will contend that variation in outcomes associated with vanguard state resistance to sovereignty violation can be best explained by levels of interest convergence between the ASEAN vanguard state and designated external actors. Evidence will be provided to support the hypothesis that in 1999, ASEAN’s failure to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of low interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. Conversely, in 1975, ASEAN’s ability to resist violations to the sovereignty of Indonesia was a consequence of high interest convergence between Indonesia and the external powers. As the vanguard state, Indonesia was able to apply pressure on the ASEAN states and obtain unanimous support for Indonesia’s East Timor policy in 1975 and 1999. However, the key factor explaining the variance in outcomes in both time periods resides in the critical role played by external actors. This view represents a serious challenge to much of the existing scholarship that emphasises ASEAN’s ability to defend regional autonomy. As these cases attempt to show, ASEAN autonomy is much more contingent than portrayed in the existing literature.

Keywords: ASEAN, east timor, intervention, sovereignty

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5229 The New Propensity Score Method and Assessment of Propensity Score: A Simulation Study

Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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5228 A Comparative Analysis of Safety Orientation and Safety Performance in Organizations: A Project Management Perspective

Authors: Dina Alfreahat, Zoltan Sebestyen

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Safety is considered as one of the project’s success factors. Poor safety management may result in accidents that impact human, economic, and legal issues. Therefore, it is necessary to consider safety and health as a project success factor along with other project success factors, such as time, cost, and quality. Organizations have a knowledge deficit of the implementation of long-term safety practices, and due to cost control, safety problems tend to receive the least priority. They usually assume that safety management involves expenditures unrelated to production goals, thereby considering it unnecessary for profitability and competitiveness. The purpose of this study is to introduce, analysis and identify the correlation between the orientation of the public safety procedures of an organization and the public safety standards applied in the project. Therefore, the authors develop the process and collect the possible mathematical-statistical tools supporting the previously mentioned goal. The result shows that the adoption of management to safety is a major factor in implementing the safety standard in the project and thereby improving safety performance. It may take time and effort to adopt the mindset of safety orientation service development, but at the same time, the higher organizational investment in safety and health programs will contribute to the loyalty of staff to safety compliance.

Keywords: project management perspective, safety orientation, safety performance, safety standards

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5227 Cameroon’s State Bilingualism: Mending Fences between Linguistic Communities

Authors: Charles Esambe Alobwede

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From the time of the biblical story of the Tower of Babel, languages as well as people have learnt to co-exist. It is obvious that when languages co-exist, there is the inevitable tendency of linguistic influence. This is because a language can either be a unifying factor or a factor of division within a given community, especially in a multicultural and multi-linguistic community where such a situation has led to socio-political and economic tension. Thus, leaders of such communities have a duty to plan and implement a language policy that will meet the needs of all members of the community in order to enhance its corporateness. The present article will focus on some of the major reasons that prompted the government of Cameroon to embark on an official bilingual policy after independence in 1961 and then evaluate the evolution of the linguistic situation. The article will equally look at the consequences, especially on a socio-political platform and what today has been termed 'the Anglophone problem' in Cameroon which has caused a fuse between the country’s minority Anglophone population and the majority Francophone administration. Data for the present article is collected from literature on the state of official bilingualism in Cameroon, newspapers articles on the prevailing situation in the country and interviews with actors on the field.

Keywords: language policy, linguistic influence, multicultural, official bilingualism, socio-political tension

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5226 Solid Health Care Waste Management Practice in Ethiopia

Authors: Yeshanew Ayele Tiruneh, L. M. Modiba, S. M. Zuma

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Introduction- Healthcare waste is any waste generated by health care facilities, considered potentially hazardous to health. Solid health care waste is categorised into infectious and non-infectious wastes. Infectious waste is material suspected to contain pathogens. The non-infectious waste includes wastes that have not been in contact with infectious agents, hazardous chemicals, or radioactive substances. The purpose is to assess solid health care waste (SHCW) management practice toward developing guidelines. The setting is all health facilities found in Hossaena town. A mixed-method study design used. For the qualitative part, small purposeful samples were considered and large samples for the quantitative phase. Both samples were taken from the same population. Result - 17(3.1%) of health facility workers have hand washing facilities. 392 (72.6%) of the participants agree on the availability of one or more of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the facility ‘’the reason for the absence of some of the PPEs like boots, goggles, and shortage of disposable gloves are owing to cost inflation from time to time and sometimes absent from the market’’. The observational finding shows that colour coded waste bins are available at 23 (9.6%) of the rooms. Majority of the sharp container used in the health facility are reusable in the contrary to the health care waste management standards and most of them are plastic buckets and easily cleanable. All of the health facility infectious waste are collected transported and deposed daily. Regarding the preventive vaccination nearly half of the the fahealth facility workers wer vaccinated for Hep B virus. Conclusion- Hand washing facilities, personal protective equipment’s and preventive vaccinations are not easily available for health workers. Solid waste segregation practices are poor and these practices showed that SWMP is below the acceptable level.

Keywords: health care waste, waste management, disposal, private health facilities

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5225 Assessment of Dietary Patterns of Saudi Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Ramadan and Non-Ramadan Periods

Authors: Abdullah S. Alghamdi, Khaled Alghamdi, Richard O. Jenkins, Parvez I. Haris

Abstract:

Background: Unhealthy diet is one of the modifiable risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Improvement in diet can be beneficial for countering diabetes. For example, HbA1c, an important biomarker for diabetes, can be reduced by 1.1% through only alteration in diet. Ramadan fasting has been reported to provide positive health benefits. However, optimal benefits are not achieved, often due to poor dietary habits and lifestyle. There is a need to better understand the dietary habits of people fasting during Ramadan, so that necessary improvements can be made to develop this form of fasting as a non-pharmacological strategy for management and prevention of T2DM. Aim: This study aimed to assess the dietary patterns of Saudi adult patients with T2DM over three different periods (before, during, and after Ramadan) and relate this to HbA1c levels. Methods: This study recruited 82 Saudi with T2DM, who chose to fast during Ramadan, from the Endocrine and Diabetic Centre of Al Iman General Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Ethical approvals for the study were obtained from De Montfort University and Saudi Ministry of Health. Dietary patterns were assessed by a self-administered questionnaire in each period. This assessment included the diet type and frequency. Blood samples were collected in each period for determination of HbA1c. Results: The number of meals per day for the participants significantly decreased during Ramadan (P < 0.001). The consumption of fruit and vegetables significantly increased during Ramadan (P = 0.017). However, the consumption of sugary drinks significantly increased during and after Ramadan (P = 0.005). Approximately 60% of the patients indicated that they ate sugary foods at least once per week. The consumption of bread and rice was reported to be at least two times per week. The consumption of rice significantly reduced during Ramadan (P = 0.002). The mean HbA1c significantly varied between periods (P = 0.001), with lowest level during Ramadan compared to before and after Ramadan. The increase in the consumption of fruits and vegetables had a medium effect size on the reduction in HbA1c during Ramadan. There was a variance of 7.7% in the mean difference in HbA1c levels between groups (who changed their fruit and vegetable consumption) which can be accounted for by the increase in the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Likewise, 9.3% of the variance in the mean HbA1c difference between the groups was accounted for by a decrease in the consumption of rice. Conclusion: The increase in the frequency of fruit and vegetables intake, and especially the reduction in the frequency of rice consumption, during Ramadan produce beneficial effects in reducing HbA1c level. Therefore, further improving the dietary habits of patients with T2DM, such as reducing their sugary drinks intake, may help them to obtain greater benefits from Ramadan fasting in the management of their diabetes. It is recommended that dietary guidance is provided to the public to maximise health benefits through Ramadan fasting.

Keywords: Diabetes, Diet, Fasting, HbA1c, Ramadan

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5224 Sustainable Maintenance Model for Infrastructure in Egypt

Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

Abstract:

Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment performance Model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index

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5223 Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Abatacept for Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis

Authors: Hamida Memon

Abstract:

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a persistent inflammation of the joints caused by an aggressive immune reaction leading to pain, stiffness, and limited function. Abatacept, a selective co-modulator, is a promising option for treatment and may have better safety profiles compared to other interventions. This meta-analysis aims at assessing the effectiveness and safety of abatacept in contrast to various RA treatments such as placebos, biological DMARDs and conventional DMARDs. The analysis assesses how abatacept influences disease activity, pain intensity and overall patient functionality. It weighs the risk factor of abatacept with other drugs such as tocilizumab, with the numbers being lower for abatacept. This meta-analysis aims at assessing the effectiveness and safety of abatacept in contrast to various RA treatments such as placebos, biological DMARDs and conventional DMARDs. The analysis assesses how abatacept influences disease activity, pain intensity and overall patient functionality. It weighs the risk factor of abatacept with other drugs such as tocilizumab, with the numbers being lower for abatacept.

Keywords: Rheumatoid arthritis, abatacept, control group, bone disease

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5222 Effect of Extrusion Parameters on the Rheological Properties of Ready-To-Eat Extrudates Developed from De-Oiled Rice Bran

Authors: Renu Sharma, D. C. Saxena, Tanuja Srivastava

Abstract:

Mechanical properties of ready-to-eat extrudates are perceived by the consumers as one of the quality criteria. Texture quality of any product has a strong influence on the sensory evaluation as well as on the acceptability of the product. The main texture characteristics influencing the product acceptability are crispness, elasticity, hardness and softness. In the present work, the authors investigated one of the most important textural characteristics of extrudates i.e. hardness. A five-level, four-factor central composite rotatable design was employed to investigate the effect of temperature, screw speed, feed moisture content and feed composition mainly rice bran content and their interactions, on the mechanical hardness of extrudates. Among these, feed moisture was found to be a prominent factor affecting the product hardness. It was found that with the increase of feed moisture content, the rice bran proportion leads to increase in hardness of extrudates whereas the increase of temperature leads to decrease of hardness of product. A good agreement between the predicted (26.49 N) and actual value (28.73N) of the response confirms the validation of response surface methodology (RSM)-model.

Keywords: deoiled rice bran, extrusion, rheological properties, RSM

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5221 Role of Additional Food Resources in an Ecosystem with Two Discrete Delays

Authors: Ankit Kumar, Balram Dubey

Abstract:

This study proposes a three dimensional prey-predator model with additional food, provided to predator individuals, including gestation delay in predators and delay in supplying the additional food to predators. It is assumed that the interaction between prey and predator is followed by Holling type-II functional response. We discussed the steady states and their local and global asymptotic behavior for the non-delayed system. Hopf-bifurcation phenomenon with respect to different parameters has also been studied. We obtained a range of predator’s tendency factor on provided additional food, in which the periodic solutions occur in the system. We have shown that oscillations can be controlled from the system by increasing the tendency factor. Moreover, the existence of periodic solutions via Hopf-bifurcation is shown with respect to both the delays. Our analysis shows that both delays play an important role in governing the dynamics of the system. It changes the stability behavior into instability behavior. The direction and stability of Hopf-bifurcation are also investigated through the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Lastly, some numerical simulations and graphical illustrations have been carried out to validate our analytical findings.

Keywords: additional food, gestation delay, Hopf-bifurcation, prey-predator

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5220 Required SNR for PPM in Downlink Gamma-Gamma Turbulence Channel

Authors: Selami Şahin

Abstract:

In this paper, in order to achieve sufficient bit error rate (BER) according to zenith angle of the satellite to ground station, SNR requirement is investigated utilizing pulse position modulation (PPM). To realize explicit results, all parameters such as link distance, Rytov variance, scintillation index, wavelength, aperture diameter of the receiver, Fried's parameter and zenith angle have been taken into account. Results indicate that after some parameters are determined since the constraints of the system, to achieve desired BER, required SNR values are in wide range while zenith angle changes from small to large values. Therefore, in order not to utilize high link margin, either SNR should adjust according to zenith angle or link should establish with predetermined intervals of the zenith angle.

Keywords: Free-space optical communication, optical downlink channel, atmospheric turbulence, wireless optical communication

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5219 On the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Markets: A Multivariate Long-Memory GARCH Framework

Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

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5218 Evaluation of a 50MW Two-Axis Tracking Photovoltaic Power Plant for Al-Jagbob, Libya: Energetic, Economic, and Environmental Impact Analysis

Authors: Yasser Aldali, Farag Ahwide

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of large scale (LS-PV) two-axis tracking photovoltaic power plant in Al-Jagbob, Libya. A 50MW PV-grid connected (two-axis tracking) power plant design in Al-Jagbob, Libya has been carried out presently. A hetero-junction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) type PV module has been selected and modeled. A Microsoft Excel-VBA program has been constructed to compute slope radiation, dew-point, sky temperature, and then cell temperature, maximum power output and module efficiency for this system, for tracking system. The results for energy production show that the total energy output is 128.5 GWh/year. The average module efficiency is 16.6%. The electricity generation capacity factor (CF) and solar capacity factor (SCF) were found to be 29.3% and 70.4% respectively. A 50MW two axis tracking power plant with a total energy output of 128.5 GWh/year would reduce CO2 pollution by 85,581 tonnes of each year. The payback time for the proposed LS-PV photovoltaic power plant was found to be 4 years.

Keywords: large PV power plant, solar energy, environmental impact, dual-axis tracking system

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5217 Analysis of Entrepreneurship in Industrial Cluster

Authors: Wen-Hsiang Lai

Abstract:

Except for the internal aspects of entrepreneurship (i.e. motivation, opportunity perspective and alertness), there are external aspects that affecting entrepreneurship (i.e. the industrial cluster). By comparing the machinery companies located inside and outside the industrial district, this study aims to explore the cluster effects on the entrepreneurship of companies in Taiwan machinery clusters (TMC). In this study, three factors affecting the entrepreneurship in TMC are conducted as “competition”, “embedded-ness” and “specialized knowledge”. The “competition” in the industrial cluster is defined as the competitive advantages that companies gain in form of demand effects and diversified strategies; the “embedded-ness” refers to the quality of company relations (relational embedded-ness) and ranges (structural embedded-ness) with the industry components (universities, customers and complementary) that affecting knowledge transfer and knowledge generations; the “specialized knowledge” shares the internal knowledge within industrial clusters. This study finds that when comparing to the companies which are outside the cluster, the industrial cluster has positive influence on the entrepreneurship. Additionally, the factor of “relational embedded-ness” has significant impact on the entrepreneurship and affects the adaptation ability of companies in TMC. Finally, the factor of “competition” reveals partial influence on the entrepreneurship.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, industrial cluster, industrial district, economies of agglomerations, Taiwan Machinery Cluster (TMC)

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5216 Production Sharing Contracts Transparency Simulation

Authors: Chariton Christou, David Cornwell

Abstract:

Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is the type of contract that is being used widely in our time. The financial crisis made the governments tightfisted and they do not have the resources to participate in a development of a field. Therefore, more and more countries introduce the PSC. The companies have the power and the money to develop the field with their own way. The main problem is the transparency of oil and gas companies especially in the PSC and how this can be achieved. Many discussions have been made especially in the U.K. What we are suggesting is a dynamic financial simulation with the help of a flow meter. The flow meter will count the production of each field every day (it will be installed in a pipeline). The production will be the basic input of the simulation. It will count the profit, the costs and more according to the information of the flow meter. In addition it will include the terms of the contract and the costs that have been paid. By all these parameters the simulation will be able to present in real time the information of a field (taxes, employees, R-factor). By this simulation the company will share some information with the government but not all of them. The government will know the taxes that should be paid and what is the sharing percentage of it. All of the other information could be confidential for the company. Furthermore, oil company could control the R-factor by changing the production each day to maximize its sharing percentages and as a result of this the profit. This idea aims to change the way that governments 'control' oil companies and bring a transparency evolution in the industry. With the help of a simulation every country could be next to the company and have a better collaboration.

Keywords: production sharing contracts, transparency, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
5215 Train Timetable Rescheduling Using Sensitivity Analysis: Application of Sobol, Based on Dynamic Multiphysics Simulation of Railway Systems

Authors: Soha Saad, Jean Bigeon, Florence Ossart, Etienne Sourdille

Abstract:

Developing better solutions for train rescheduling problems has been drawing the attention of researchers for decades. Most researches in this field deal with minor incidents that affect a large number of trains due to cascading effects. They focus on timetables, rolling stock and crew duties, but do not take into account infrastructure limits. The present work addresses electric infrastructure incidents that limit the power available for train traction, and hence the transportation capacity of the railway system. Rescheduling is needed in order to optimally share the available power among the different trains. We propose a rescheduling process based on dynamic multiphysics railway simulations that include the mechanical and electrical properties of all the system components and calculate physical quantities such as the train speed profiles, voltage along the catenary lines, temperatures, etc. The optimization problem to solve has a large number of continuous and discrete variables, several output constraints due to physical limitations of the system, and a high computation cost. Our approach includes a phase of sensitivity analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the system and help the decision making process and/or more precise optimization. This approach is a quantitative method based on simulation statistics of the dynamic railway system, considering a predefined range of variation of the input parameters. Three important settings are defined. Factor prioritization detects the input variables that contribute the most to the outputs variation. Then, factor fixing allows calibrating the input variables which do not influence the outputs. Lastly, factor mapping is used to study which ranges of input values lead to model realizations that correspond to feasible solutions according to defined criteria or objectives. Generalized Sobol indexes are used for factor prioritization and factor fixing. The approach is tested in the case of a simple railway system, with a nominal traffic running on a single track line. The considered incident is the loss of a feeding power substation, which limits the power available and the train speed. Rescheduling is needed and the variables to be adjusted are the trains departure times, train speed reduction at a given position and the number of trains (cancellation of some trains if needed). The results show that the spacing between train departure times is the most critical variable, contributing to more than 50% of the variation of the model outputs. In addition, we identify the reduced range of variation of this variable which guarantees that the output constraints are respected. Optimal solutions are extracted, according to different potential objectives: minimizing the traveling time, the train delays, the traction energy, etc. Pareto front is also built.

Keywords: optimization, rescheduling, railway system, sensitivity analysis, train timetable

Procedia PDF Downloads 399