Search results for: real time systems

Authors: Aouiche Abdelaziz, Soudani Mouhamed Salah, Aouiche El Moundhe

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The present paper addresses the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) for the identification and control of dynamical systems with some degree of uncertainty. Because ANNs and FISs have an inherent ability to approximate functions and to adapt to changes in input and parameters, they can be used to control systems too complex for linear controllers. In this work, we show how ANNs and FISs can be put in order to form nets that can learn from external data. In sequence, it is presented structures of inputs that can be used along with ANNs and FISs to model non-linear systems. Four systems were used to test the identification and control of the structures proposed. The results show the ANNs and FISs (Back Propagation Algorithm) used were efficient in modeling and controlling the non-linear plants.

Keywords: non-linear systems, fuzzy set Models, neural network, control law

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Authors: Redouane Krini, Lutz Nuhn, Hicham El Mard Cheol Woo Ha, Yoondeok Han, Kwang-Sup Lee, Dong-Yol Yang, Jinsoo Joo, Rudolf Zentel

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To use Quantum Dots (QDs) in the two photon initiated polymerization technique (TPIP) for 3D patternings, QDs were modified on the surface with photosensitive end groups which are able to undergo a photopolymerization. We were able to fabricate fluorescent 3D lattice structures using photopatternable QDs by TPIP for photonic devices such as photonic crystals and metamaterials. The QDs in different diameter have different emission colors and through mixing of RGB QDs white light fluorescent from the polymeric structures has been created. Metamaterials are capable for unique interaction with the electrical and magnetic components of the electromagnetic radiation and for manipulating light it is crucial to have a negative refractive index. In combination with QDs via TPIP technique polymeric structures can be designed with properties which cannot be found in nature. This makes these artificial materials gaining a huge importance for real-life applications in photonic and optoelectronic. Understanding of interactions between nanoparticles and biological systems is of a huge interest in the biomedical research field. We developed a synthetic strategy of polymer functionalized nanoparticles for biomedical studies to obtain hybrid systems of QDs and copolymers with a strong binding network in an inner shell and which can be modified in the end through their poly(ethylene glycol) functionalized outer shell. These hybrid systems can be used as models for investigation of cell penetration and drug delivery by using measurements combination between CryoTEM and fluorescence studies.

Keywords: biomedical study models, lithography, photo induced polymerization, quantum dots

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Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

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Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

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Authors: Liwei Liu, Shuguo Pan, Wang Gao

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In order to take full advantages of the BDS-3 penta-frequency signals in the long-baseline RTK positioning, a long-baseline RTK positioning method based on the BDS-3 penta-frequency ionospheric-reduced (IR) combinations is proposed. First, the low noise and weak ionospheric delay characteristics of the multi-frequency combined observations of BDS-3is analyzed. Second, the multi-frequency extra-wide-lane (EWL)/ wide-lane (WL) combinations with long-wavelengths are constructed. Third, the fixed IR EWL combinations are used to constrain the IR WL, then constrain narrow-lane (NL)ambiguityies and start multi-epoch filtering. There is no need to consider the influence of ionospheric parameters in the third step. Compared with the estimated ionospheric model, the proposed method reduces the number of parameters by half, so it is suitable for the use of multi-frequency and multi-system real-time RTK. The results using real data show that the stepwise fixed model of the IR EWL/WL/NL combinations can realize long-baseline instantaneous cimeter-level positioning.

Keywords: penta-frequency, ionospheric-reduced (IR), RTK positioning, long-baseline

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Authors: Noriko Hanakawa, Masaki Obana

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A simulation tool has been proposed for big-scale projection mapping events. The tool has four main functions based on Mapbox and Unity utilities. The first function is building a 3D model of real cities by MapBox. The second function is a movie projection to some buildings in real cities by Unity. The third function is a movie sending function from a PC to a virtual projector. The fourth function is mapping movies with fitting buildings. The simulation tool was adapted to a real projection mapping event that was held in 2019. The event has been finished. The event had a serious problem in the movie projection to the target building. The extra tents were set in front of the target building. The tents became the obstacles to the movie projection. The simulation tool can be reappeared the problems of the event. Therefore, if the simulation tool was developed before the 2019 projection mapping event, the problem of the tents’ obstacles could be avoided with the simulation tool. In addition, we confirmed that the simulation tool is useful to make a plan of future projection mapping events in order to avoid obstacles of various extra equipment such as utility poles, planting trees, monument towers.

Keywords: projection mapping, projector position, real 3D map, avoiding obstacles

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Authors: Arbnor Pajaziti, Hasan Cana

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In this paper, the structural genetic algorithm is used to optimize the neural network to control the joint movements of robotic arm. The robotic arm has also been modeled in 3D and simulated in real-time in MATLAB. It is found that Neural Networks provide a simple and effective way to control the robot tasks. Computer simulation examples are given to illustrate the significance of this method. By combining Genetic Algorithm optimization method and Neural Networks for the given robotic arm with 5 D.O.F. the obtained the results shown that the base joint movements overshooting time without controller was about 0.5 seconds, while with Neural Network controller (optimized with Genetic Algorithm) was about 0.2 seconds, and the population size of 150 gave best results.

Keywords: robotic arm, neural network, genetic algorithm, optimization

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Authors: Taha Bensiradj, Samira Moussaoui

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Hybrid Sensors and Vehicular Networks (HSVN), represent a hybrid network, which uses several generations of Ad-Hoc networks. It is used especially in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). The HSVN allows making collaboration between the Wireless Sensors Network (WSN) deployed on the border of the road and the Vehicular Network (VANET). This collaboration is defined by messages exchanged between the two networks for the purpose to inform the drivers about the state of the road, provide road safety information and more information about traffic on the road. Moreover, this collaboration created by HSVN, also allows the use of a network and the advantage of improving another network. For example, the dissemination of information between the sensors quickly decreases its energy, and therefore, we can use vehicles that do not have energy constraint to disseminate the information between sensors. On the other hand, to solve the disconnection problem in VANET, the sensors can be used as gateways that allow sending the messages received by one vehicle to another. However, because of the short communication range of the sensor and its low capacity of storage and processing of data, it is difficult to ensure the exchange of road messages between it and the vehicle, which can be moving at high speed at the time of exchange. This represents the time where the vehicle is in communication range with the sensor. This work is the proposition of a communication protocol between the sensors and the vehicle used in HSVN. The latter has as the purpose to ensure the exchange of road messages in the available time of exchange.

Keywords: HSVN, ITS, VANET, WSN

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Kaushikk Iyer, Richard M Hall, David Keeling

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Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation is an advanced technique for developing and testing complex real-time control systems. This paper presents the benefits of HIL simulation and how it can be implemented and used effectively to develop, test, and validate advanced control algorithms used in a spinal joint Wear simulator for the Tribological testing of spinal disc prostheses. spinal wear simulator is technologically the most advanced machine currently employed For the in-vitro testing of newly developed spinal Discimplants. However, the existing control techniques, such as a simple position control Does not allow the simulator to test non-sinusoidal waveforms. Thus, there is a need for better and advanced control methods that can be developed and tested Rigorouslybut safely before deploying it into the real simulator. A benchtop HILsetupis was created for experimentation, controller verification, and validation purposes, allowing different control strategies to be tested rapidly in a safe environment. The HIL simulation aspect in this setup attempts to replicate similar spinal motion and loading conditions. The spinal joint wear simulator containsa four-Barlinkpowered by electromechanical actuators. LabVIEW software is used to design a kinematic model of the spinal wear Simulator to Validatehow each link contributes towards the final motion of the implant under test. As a result, the implant articulates with an angular motion specified in the international standards, ISO-18192-1, that define fixed, simplified, and sinusoid motion and load profiles for wear testing of cervical disc implants. Using a PID controller, a velocity-based position control algorithm was developed to interface with the benchtop setup that performs HIL simulation. In addition to PID, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) was also developed that acts as a supervisory controller. FLC provides intelligence to the PID controller by By automatically tuning the controller for profiles that vary in amplitude, shape, and frequency. This combination of the fuzzy-PID controller is novel to the wear testing application for spinal simulators and demonstrated superior performance against PIDwhen tested for a spectrum of frequency. Kaushikk Iyer is a Ph.D. Student at the University of Leeds and an employee at Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom, (e-mail: [email protected], phone: +44 740 541 5502). Richard M Hall is with the University of Leeds, the United Kingdom as a professor in the Mechanical Engineering Department (e-mail: [email protected]). David Keeling is the managing director of Key Engineering Solutions, Leeds, United Kingdom (e-mail: [email protected]). Results obtained are successfully validated against the load and motion tolerances specified by the ISO18192-1 standard and fall within limits, that is, ±0.5° at the maxima and minima of the motion and ±2 % of the complete cycle for phasing. The simulation results prove the efficacy of the test setup using HIL simulation to verify and validate the accuracy and robustness of the prospective controller before its deployment into the spinal wear simulator. This method of testing controllers enables a wide range of possibilities to test advanced control algorithms that can potentially test even profiles of patients performing various dailyliving activities.

Keywords: Fuzzy-PID controller, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), real-time simulation, spinal wear simulator

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Authors: Revanth Rallapalli

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Manually dispensing solids and powders can be difficult as it requires gradually pour and check the amount on the scale to be dispensed. Current systems are manual and non-continuous in nature and are user-dependent and difficult to control powder dispensation. Recurrent dosing of powdered medicines in precise amounts quickly and accurately has been an all-time challenge. Various new powder dispensing mechanisms are being designed to overcome these challenges. A battery-operated screw conveyor mechanism is being innovated to overcome the above problems faced. These inventions are numerically evaluated at the concept development level by employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) of gas-solids multiphase flow systems. CFD has been very helpful in development of such devices saving time and money by reducing the number of prototypes and testing. Furthermore, this paper describes a simulation of powder dispensation from the trocar’s end by considering the powder as secondary flow in air, is simulated by using the technique called Dense Discrete Phase Model incorporated with Kinetic Theory of Granular Flow (DDPM-KTGF). By considering the volume fraction of powder as 50%, the transportation of powder from the inlet side to trocar’s end side is done by rotation of the screw conveyor. Thus, the performance is calculated for a 1-sec time frame in an unsteady computation manner. This methodology will help designers in developing design concepts to improve the dispensation and also at the effective area within a quick turnaround time frame.

Keywords: DDPM-KTGF, gas-solids multiphase flow, screw conveyor, Unsteady

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Authors: Arcady Ponosov

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A novel mathematical approach is suggested, which facilitates a compressed representation and efficient validation of parameter-rich ordinary differential equation models describing the dynamics of complex, especially biology-related, systems and which is based on identification of the system's latent variables. In particular, an efficient parameter estimation method for the compressed non-linear dynamical systems is developed. The method is applied to the so-called 'power-law systems' being non-linear differential equations typically used in Biochemical System Theory.

Keywords: generalized law of mass action, metamodels, principal components, synergetic systems

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper summarizes some of the discussions that occurred in a workshop in West Virginia, U.S.A which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in February 2016. The goal of the workshop was to explore the opportunities and challenges for applying systems engineering in large enterprises, and some of the issues that still persist. The main topics of the discussion included challenges with elaboration and abstraction in large systems, interfacing physical and social systems, and the need for axiomatic frameworks for large enterprises. We summarize these main points of discussion drawing parallels with decision making in organizations to instigate research in these discussion areas.

Keywords: decision analysis, systems engineering, framing, value creation

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Authors: Yiwen Jin, Jing Xiao, Pinfang Su

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The idea of adapting authentic materials in language teaching is from the communicative method in the 1970s. Different from the language in language textbooks, authentic materials is not deliberately written, it is from the native speaker’s real life and contains real information, which can meet social needs. It could improve learners ' interest, create authentic context and improve learners ' communicative competence. Authentic materials play an important role in CFL（Chinese as a foreign language） classroom. Different types of authentic materials can be used in different ways during learning and teaching. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic，a lot of Chinese learners are learning Chinese without the real language environment. Although there are some well-written textbooks, there is a certain distance between textbook language materials and daily life. Learners cannot automatically fill this gap. That is why it is necessary to apply authentic materials as a supplement to the language textbook to create the real context. Chinese teachers around the world are working together, trying to integrate the resources and apply authentic materials through different approach. They apply authentic materials in the form of new textbooks, manuals, apps and short videos they collect and create to help Chinese learning and teaching. A review of previous research on authentic materials and the Chinese teachers’ attempt to adapt it in the classroom are offered in this manuscript.

Keywords: authentic materials, Chinese as a second language, developmental use of digital resources, materials development for language teaching

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Authors: Suvarna Kumar Gogula, Sandhya Devi Gogula, P. Chanakya

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Augmented reality is defined as the collection of the digital (or) computer generated information like images, audio, video, 3d models, etc. and overlay them over the real time environment. Augmented reality can be thought as a blend between completely synthetic and completely real. Augmented reality provides scope in a wide range of industries like manufacturing, retail, gaming, advertisement, tourism, etc. and brings out new dimensions in the modern digital world. As it overlays the content, it makes the users enhance the knowledge by providing the content blended with real world. In this application, we integrated augmented reality with data analytics and integrated with cloud so the virtual content will be generated on the basis of the data present in the database and we used marker based augmented reality where every marker will be stored in the database with corresponding unique ID. This application can be used in wide range of industries for different business processes, but in this paper, we mainly focus on the marketing industry which helps the customer in gaining the knowledge about the products in the market which mainly focus on their prices, customer feedback, quality, and other benefits. This application also focuses on providing better market strategy information for marketing managers who obtain the data about the stocks, sales, customer response about the product, etc. In this paper, we also included the reports from the feedback got from different people after the demonstration, and finally, we presented the future scope of Augmented Reality in different business processes by integrating with new technologies like cloud, big data, artificial intelligence, etc.

Keywords: augmented reality, data analytics, catch room, marketing and sales

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Authors: Merouane Salhi, Toufik Zebbiche, Omar Abada

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When the stagnation pressure of perfect gas increases, the specific heat and their ratio do not remain constant anymore and start to vary with this pressure. The gas does not remain perfect. Its state equation change and it becomes a real gas. In this case, the effects of molecular size and inter molecular attraction forces intervene to correct the state equation. The aim of this work is to show and discuss the effect of stagnation pressure on supersonic thermo dynamical, physical and geometrical flow parameters, to find a general case for real gas. With the assumptions that Berthelot’s state equation accounts for molecular size and inter molecular force effects, expressions are developed for analyzing supersonic flow for thermally and calorically imperfect gas lower than the dissociation molecules threshold. The designs parameters for supersonic nozzle like thrust coefficient depend directly on stagnation parameters of the combustion chamber. The application is for air. A computation of error is made in this case to give a limit of perfect gas model compared to real gas model.

Keywords: supersonic flow, real gas model, Berthelot’s state equation, Simpson’s method, condensation function, stagnation pressure

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: F. Calderón-Vega, A. D. García-Soto, C. Mösso

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Recorded significant wave heights sometimes exhibit large uncommon values (outliers) that can be associated with extreme phenomena such as hurricanes and cold fronts. In this study, some extremely large wave heights recorded in NOAA buoys (National Data Buoy Center, noaa.gov) are used to investigate their effect in the prediction of future wave heights associated with given return periods. Extreme waves are predicted through a time-dependent model based on the so-called generalized extreme value distribution. It is found that the outliers do affect the estimated wave heights. It is concluded that a detailed inspection of outliers is envisaged to determine whether they are real recorded values since this will impact defining design wave heights for coastal protection purposes.

Keywords: GEV model, non-stationary, seasonality, outliers

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Authors: S. Lemoussu, J. C. Chaudemar, R. A. Vingerhoeds

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The aeronautics sector is currently living an unprecedented growth largely due to innovative projects. In several cases, such innovative developments are being carried out by Small and Medium sized-Enterprises (SMEs). For instance, in Europe, a handful of SMEs are leading projects like airships, large civil drones, or flying cars. These SMEs have all limited resources, must make strategic decisions, take considerable financial risks and in the same time must take into account the constraints of safety, cost, time and performance as any commercial organization in this industry. Moreover, today, no international regulations fully exist for the development and certification of this kind of projects. The absence of such a precise and sufficiently detailed regulatory framework requires a very close contact with regulatory instances. But, SMEs do not always have sufficient resources and internal knowledge to handle this complexity and to discuss these issues. This poses additional challenges for those SMEs that have system integration responsibilities and that must provide all the necessary means of compliance to demonstrate their ability to design, produce, and operate airships with the expected level of safety and reliability. The final objective of our research is thus to provide a methodological framework supporting SMEs in their development taking into account recent innovation and institutional rules of the sector. We aim to provide a contribution to the problematic by developing a specific Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach. Airspace regulation, aeronautics standards and international norms on systems engineering are taken on board to be formalized in a set of models. This paper presents the on-going research project combining Systems Engineering and Project Management process modeling and taking into account the metamodeling problematic.

Keywords: aeronautics, certification, process modeling, project management, SME, systems engineering

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Authors: Ajibola Isola, Shattri Mansor, Ojogbane Sani, Olugbemi Tope

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The cadastral map is the rationale behind city management planning and development. For years, cadastral maps have been produced by ground and photogrammetry platforms. Recent evolution in photogrammetry and remote sensing sensors ignites the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle systems (UAVs) for cadastral mapping. Despite the time-saving and multi-dimensional cost-effectiveness of the UAV platform, issues related to cadastral map accuracy are a hindrance to the wide applicability of UAVs' cadastral mapping. This study aims to present an approach leading to the generation and assessing the credibility of UAV cadastral mapping. Different sets of Red, Green, and Blue (RGB) photos were obtained from the Tarot 680-hexacopter UAV platform flown over the Universiti Putra Malaysia campus sports complex at an altitude range of 70 m, 100 m, and 250. Before flying the UAV, twenty-eight ground control points were evenly established in the study area with a real-time kinematic differential global positioning system. The second phase of the study utilizes an image-matching algorithm for photos alignment wherein camera calibration parameters and ten of the established ground control points were used for estimating the inner, relative, and absolute orientations of the photos. The resulting orthoimages are exported to ArcGIS software for digitization. Visual, tabular, and graphical assessments of the resulting cadastral maps showed a different level of accuracy. The results of the study show a gradual approach for generating UAV cadastral mapping and that the cadastral map acquired at 70 m altitude produced better results.

Keywords: aerial mapping, orthomosaic, cadastral map, flying altitude, image processing

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: I. Teotónio, C.O. Cruz, C.M. Silva, M. Manso

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Diverse stakeholders show different concerns when choosing green roof systems. Also, green roof solutions vary in their cost and performance. Therefore, decision-makers continually face the difficult task of balancing benefits against green roofs costs. Decision analysis methods, as multicriteria analysis, can be used when the decision‑making process includes different perspectives, multiple objectives, and uncertainty. The present study adopts a multicriteria decision model to evaluate the installation of green roofs in buildings, determining the solution with the best trade-off between costs and benefits in agreement with the preferences of the users/investors. This methodology was applied to a real decision problem, assessing the preferences between different green roof systems in an existing building in Lisbon. This approach supports the decision-making process on green roofs and enables robust and informed decisions on urban planning while optimizing buildings retrofitting.

Keywords: decision making, green roofs, investors preferences, multicriteria analysis, sustainable development

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Authors: Inas S. Khayal, Weiping Zhou, Jonathan Skinner

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Healthcare delivery systems around the world are in crisis. The need to improve health outcomes while decreasing healthcare costs have led to an imminent call to action to transform the healthcare delivery system. While Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering have primarily focused on biological level data and biomedical technology, there is clear evidence of the importance of the delivery of care on patient outcomes. Classic singular decomposition approaches from reductionist science are not capable of explaining complex systems. Approaches and methods from systems science and systems engineering are utilized to structure healthcare delivery system data. Specifically, systems architecture is used to develop a multi-scale and multi-dimensional characterization of the healthcare delivery system, defined here as the Healthcare Delivery System Knowledge Base. This paper is the first to contribute a new method of structuring and visualizing a multi-dimensional and multi-scale healthcare delivery system using systems architecture in order to better understand healthcare delivery.

Keywords: health informatics, systems thinking, systems architecture, healthcare delivery system, data analytics

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Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid

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Introduction: Oil is one of the most income source in Bahrain. Low oil price influence on the economy growth and the investment rate in Bahrain. For example, the economic growth was 3.7% in 2012, and it reduced to 2.9% in 2015. Investment rate was 9.8% in 2012, and it is reduced to be 5.9% and -12.1% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The inflation rate is increased to the peak point in 2013 with 3.3 %. Objectives: The objectives here are to build statistical models to examine the effect of the interest rate inflation rate on the growth economy in Bahrain from 2000 to 2018. Methods: This study based on 18 years, and the multiple regression model is used for the analysis. All of the missing data are omitted from the analysis. Results: Regression model is used to examine the association between the Growth national product (GNP), the inflation rate, and real interest rate. We found that (i) Increase the real interest rate decrease the GNP. (ii) Increase the inflation rate does not effect on the growth economy in Bahrain since the average of the inflation rate was almost 2%, and this is considered as a low percentage. Conclusion: There is a positive impact of the real interest rate on the GNP in Bahrain. While the inflation rate does not show any negative influence on the GNP as the inflation rate was not large enough to effect negatively on the economy growth rate in Bahrain.

Keywords: growth national product, egypt, regression model, interest rate

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Authors: Zhiyong Li, Hiroshi Katayama

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Since 1990s, e-commerce and internet business have been grown gradually over the word and customers tend to express their demand attributes in terms of specification requirement on parts, component, product structure etc. This paper deals with designing effective decoupling points for build to order systems under e-commerce environment, which can be realized through tradeoff relation analysis between two major criteria, customer order lead time and value of work in progress. These KPIs are critical for successful BTO business, namely time-based service effectiveness on coping with customer requirements for the first issue and cost effective ness with risk aversive operations for the second issue. Approach of this paper consists of investigation of successful business standing for BTO scheme, manufacturing model development of this scheme, quantitative evaluation of proposed models by calculation of two KPI values under various decoupling point distributions and discussion of the results brought by pattern of decoupling point distribution, where some cases provide the pareto optimum performances. To extract the relevant trade-off relation between considered KPIs among 2-dimensional resultant performance, useful logic developed by former research work, i.e. Katayama and Fonseca, is applied. Obtained characteristics are evaluated as effective information for managing BTO manufacturing businesses.

Keywords: build-to-order (BTO), decoupling point, e-commerce, order-to-delivery lead time (ODLT), work in progress (WIP)

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Authors: Resul Fikir

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Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) become indispensable parts of modern air power as force multiplier. One of the main advantages of UAS is long endurance. UAS have to take extra payloads to accomplish different missions but these payloads decrease endurance of aircraft because of increasing drag. There are continuing researches to increase the capability of UAS. There are some vertical thermal air currents, which can cause climb and increase endurance, in nature. Birds and gliders use thermals to gain altitude with no effort. UAS have wide wing which can use of thermals like birds and gliders. Thermal regions, which is area of 2000-3000 meter (1 NM), exist all around the world. It is free and clean source. This study analyses if thermal regions can be adopted and implemented as an assistant tool for UAS route planning. First and second part of study will contain information about the thermal regions and current applications about UAS in aviation and climbing performance with a real example. Continuing parts will analyze the contribution of thermal regions to UAS endurance. Contribution is important because planning declaration of UAS navigation rules will be in 2015.

Keywords: airways, thermals, UAS, UAS roadmap

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Authors: Pranay Mathur, Carlo Michelassi, Simi Karatha, Gilda Pedoto

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Industrial plant uptime is top most importance for reliable, profitable & sustainable operation. Trip and failed start has major impact on plant reliability and all plant operators focussed on efforts required to minimise the trips & failed starts. The performance of these CTQs are measured with 2 metrics, MTBT(Mean time between trips) and SR (Starting reliability). These metrics helps to identify top failure modes and identify units need more effort to improve plant reliability. Baker Hughes Trip reduction program structured to reduce these unwanted trip 1. Real time machine operational parameters remotely available and capturing the signature of malfunction including related boundary condition. 2. Real time alerting system based on analytics available remotely. 3. Remote access to trip logs and alarms from control system to identify the cause of events. 4. Continuous support to field engineers by remotely connecting with subject matter expert. 5. Live tracking of key CTQs 6. Benchmark against fleet 7. Break down to the cause of failure to component level 8. Investigate top contributor, identify design and operational root cause 9. Implement corrective and preventive action 10. Assessing effectiveness of implemented solution using reliability growth models. 11. Develop analytics for predictive maintenance With this approach , Baker Hughes team is able to support customer in achieving their Reliability Key performance Indicators for monitored units, huge cost savings for plant operators. This Presentation explains these approach while providing successful case studies, in particular where 12nos. of LNG and Pipeline operators with about 140 gas compressing line-ups has adopted these techniques and significantly reduce the number of trips and improved MTBT

Keywords: reliability, availability, sustainability, digital infrastructure, weibull, effectiveness, automation, trips, fail start

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

Abstract:

a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: F. Yılmaz, Y. Saylan, A. Derazshamshir, S. Atay, A. Denizli

Abstract:

Quartz crystal microbalance (QCM), high-resolution mass-sensing technique, measures changes in mass on oscillating quartz crystal surface by measuring changes in oscillation frequency of crystal in real time. Protein adsorption techniques via hydrophobic interaction between protein and solid support, called hydrophobic interaction chromatography (HIC), can be favorable in many cases. Some nanoparticles can be effectively applied for HIC. HIC takes advantage of the hydrophobicity of proteins by promoting its separation on the basis of hydrophobic interactions between immobilized hydrophobic ligands and nonpolar regions on the surface of the proteins. Lysozyme is found in a variety of vertebrate cells and secretions, such as spleen, milk, tears, and egg white. Its common applications are as a cell-disrupting agent for extraction of bacterial intracellular products, as an antibacterial agent in ophthalmologic preparations, as a food additive in milk products and as a drug for treatment of ulcers and infections. Lysozyme has also been used in cancer chemotherapy. The aim of this study is the synthesis of hydrophobic nanoparticles for Lysozyme detection. For this purpose, methacryoyl-L-phenylalanine was chosen as a hydrophobic matrix. The hydrophobic nanoparticles were synthesized by micro-emulsion polymerization method. Then, hydrophobic QCM nanosensor was characterized by Attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM) and zeta size analysis. Hydrophobic QCM nanosensor was tested for real-time detection of Lysozyme from aqueous solution. The kinetic and affinity studies were determined by using Lysozyme solutions with different concentrations. The responses related to a mass (Δm) and frequency (Δf) shifts were used to evaluate adsorption properties.

Keywords: nanosensor, HIC, lysozyme, QCM

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Lemar Blake, Chris Oura, Ayanna C. N. Phillips Savage

Abstract:

Improved DNA sequencing technology has greatly enhanced bacterial identification, especially for organisms that are difficult to culture. Mycobacteriosis with consistent hyphema, bilateral exophthalmia, open mouth gape and ocular lesions, were observed in various fish populations at the School of Veterinary Medicine, Aquaculture/Aquatic Animal Health Unit. Objective: To identify the species of Mycobacterium that is affecting aquarium fish at the School of Veterinary Medicine, Aquaculture/Aquatic Animal Health Unit. Method: A total of 13 fish samples were collected and analyzed via: Ziehl-Neelsen, conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time PCR. These tests were carried out simultaneously for confirmation. The following combination of conventional primers: 16s rRNA (564 bp), rpoB (396 bp), sod (408 bp) were used. Concatenation of the gene fragments was carried out to phylogenetically classify the organism. Results: Acid fast non-branching bacilli were detected in all samples from homogenized internal organs. All 13 acid fast samples were positive for Mycobacterium via real-time PCR. Partial gene sequences using all three primer sets were obtained from two samples and demonstrated a novel strain. A strain 99% related to Mycobacterium marinum was also confirmed in one sample, using 16srRNA and rpoB genes. The two novel strains were clustered with the rapid growers and strains that are known to affect humans. Conclusions: Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated two novel Mycobacterium strains with the potential of being zoonotic and one strain 99% related to Mycobacterium marinum.

Keywords: polymerase chain reaction, phylogenetic, DNA sequencing, zoonotic

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Authors: Sule Sahin, Basak Bulut Karageyik

Abstract:

This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small intervals. We call this function the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behavior of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords: conditional time of ruin, finite time ruin probability, force of ruin, reinsurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 406