Search results for: route risk estimation

Authors: Suzan Salem, Heba Moustafa, Abd El-Aziz Abd El-Aal

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Seismic micro hazard zonation for urban areas is the first step towards a seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. Essential here is to obtain a proper understanding of the local subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground-shaking effects. In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in El-Fayoum New City. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of El-Fayoum New City are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. The second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis using the equivalent linear method by program SHAKE 2000. Finally, microzonation maps have been prepared. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collected data, results and maps are presented in this paper.

Keywords: El-Fayoum, microzonation, seismotectonic, Egypt

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Authors: Farhan Aljuaidi

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The rapid expansion of Alkarj city, Saudi Arabia, towards the outlet of Wadi AlAin is critical for the planners and decision makers. Nowadays, two major projects such as Salman bin Abdulaziz University compound and new industrial area are developed in this flood prone area where no channels are clear and identified. The main contribution of this study is to divert the flow away from these vital projects by reconstructing new channels. To do so, Lidar data were used to generate contour lines for the actual elevation of the highways and local roads. These data were analyzed and compared to the contour lines derived from the topographical maps 1:50.000. The magnitude of the expected flow was estimated using Snyder's Model based on the morphometric data acquired by DEM of the catchment area. The results indicate that maximum discharge peak reaches 2694,3 m3/sec, the mean is 303,7 m3/sec and the minimum is 74,3 m3/sec. The runoff was estimated at 252,2. 610 m3/s, the mean is 41,5. 610 m3/s and the minimum is 12,4. 610 m3/s.

Keywords: Desert flood, Saudi Arabia, Snyder's Model, flow estimation

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Authors: Guanghua Lu, Zhenhua Yan

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To investigate the estrogenic contamination and potential risk of Taihu Lake, eight active biomonitoring points in the northern section of Taihu Lake were set up and located in Wangyuhe River outlet (P1), Gonghu Bay (P2 and P3), Meiliang Bay (P4 and P5), Zhushan Bay (P6 and P7) and Lake Centre (P8). A suite of biomarkers in caged fish after in situ exposure for 28 days, coupled with six selected exogenous estrogens in water, were determined in May and December 2011. Six target estrogens, namely estrone (E1), 17b-estradiol (E2), ethinylestradiol (EE2), estriol (E3), diethylstilbestrol (DES) and bisphenol A (BPA), were quantified using UPLC/MS/MS. The concentrations of E1, E2, E3, EE2, DES and BPA ranged from ND to 3.61 ng/L, ND to 17.3 ng/L, ND to 1.65 ng/L, ND to 10.2 ng/L, ND to 34.6 ng/L, and 3.95 to 207 ng/L, respectively. BPA was detected at all sampling points at all test periods, E2 was detected at 95% of samples, E1 and EE2 was detected at 75% of samples, and E3 was detected only in December 2011 with quite low concentrations. Each individual estrogen concentration measured at each sampling point was multiplied by its relative potency to gain the estradiol equivalent (EEQ). The total EEQ values in all the monitoring points ranged from 5.69 to 17.8 ng/L in May 2011, and from 4.46 to 21.1 ng/L in December 2011. E2 and EE2 were thought to be the major causal agents responsible for the estrogenic activities. Serum vitellogenin and E2 levels, gonadal DNA damage, and gonadosomatic index were measured in the in situ exposed fish. An enhanced integrated biomarker response (EIBR) was calculated and used to evaluate potential feminization risk of fish in the polluted area of Taihu Lake. EIBR index showed good agreement with the observed total EEQ levels in water. Our results indicated that Gong bay and the lake center had a low estrogenic risk, whereas Wangyuhe River, Meiliang Bay, and Zhushan Bay might present a higher risk to fish.

Keywords: active biomonitoring, estrogen, feminization risk, Taihu Lake

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Authors: Jose Cristiano Pereira, Gilson Brito Alves Lima

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Ergonomics is a key factor affecting the operational safety and quality in the aircraft engine manufacturing industry and evidence shows that the lack of attention to it can increase the risk of accidents. In order to emphasize the importance of ergonomics, this paper systematically reviews the critical processes used in the aircraft engine production industry with focus on the ergonomic factors. about the subject to identify key ergonomic factors. Experts validated the factors and used AHP to rank the factors in order of significance. From the six key risk factors identified, the ones with the highest weight are psychological demand followed by understanding of operational side. These factors suggest that measures must be taken to improve ergonomic factors, quality and safety in the manufacturing of aircraft engines.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, aviation, aircraft engine production

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Authors: Lalrokima Chenkual

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Legal provision and various guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in India strives for setting up of disaster management authority from the central government to the district level. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction practice is still relevant as the communities are the victim as well as the first responder in any incidents. The primary goal of Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction is to reduce vulnerability of the concerned community and strengthen its existing capacity to cope with disaster. By involving the community in the preparedness phase, it not only increases the likelihood of coordinated action by the communities to help in mitigating disasters and lessening the impact of disaster but also brings the community together to address the issue collectively. Community participation ensures local ownership, addresses local needs, and promotes volunteerism and mutual help to prevent and minimise damage. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction is very much relevant for Mizoram as the society is closed knit, population is very less, religion homogeneity i.e Christianity, very active and widespread community-based organization viz, Young Mizo Association, MHIP (Women Federation), MUP (Elders Clubs which are guided together by Mizo code of morals conduct termed as Tlawmngaihna.

Keywords: community, close-knit, first responder, Tlawmngaihna

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Authors: Nima Amani, Ali Salehi Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Ardalan Sabamehr

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The cost overrun of the construction projects has always been one of the main problems of the construction companies caused by the risky nature of the construction projects. Therefore, today, the application of risk management is inevitable. Although in theory, the issue of risk management is divided into the opportunities and threats management, in practice, most of the projects have been focused on the threats management. However, considering the opportunities management and applying the opportunities-response strategies can lead to the improved profitability of the construction projects of the companies. In this paper, a new technique is developed to identify the opportunities in the construction projects using an improved protocol and propose the appropriate opportunities-response strategies to the construction companies to provide them with higher profitability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the protocol for selecting the most appropriate strategies in ‎response to the opportunities and threats, two projects from a construction company in Iran were ‎studied. Both projects selected were in mid-range in terms of size and similar in terms of time, ‎run time and costs. Finally, the output indicates that using the proposed opportunities-response strategies show that the company's profitability in the future can be increased approximately for similar projects.

Keywords: opportunities management, risk-response strategy, opportunity-response strategy, productivity, risk management

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Authors: Kim Sang Hyuck, Y. Park Sung

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The outbreak of national disasters stimulates the decrease of the both internal and domestic tourism demands, causing bad effects on the hospitality industry. The effective and efficient risk management regarding national disasters are being increasingly required from the hospitality industry practitioners and the tourism policymakers. To establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy on national disasters, the most essential prerequisite condition is the correct estimation of national disasters’ effects in terms of the size and duration of the damages occurred from national disaster on hospitality industry. More specifically, the national disasters are twofold: natural disaster and social disaster. In addition, the hospitality industry has consisted of several types of business, such as hotel, restaurant, travel agency, etc. As reasons of the above, it is important to consider how each type of national disasters differently influences on the performance of each type of hospitality industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is examining the effects of national disaster on hospitality industry in Korea based on the types of national disasters as well as the types of hospitality business. The monthly data was collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2016. The indexes of industrial production for each hospitality industry in Korea were used with the proxy variable for the performance of each hospitality industry. Two national disaster variables (natural disaster and social disaster) were treated as dummy variables. In addition, the exchange rate, industrial production index, and consumer price index were used as control variables in the research model. The impulse response analysis was used to examine the size and duration of the damages occurred from each type of national disaster on each type of hospitality industries. The results of this study show that the natural disaster and the social disaster differently influenced on each type of hospitality industry. More specifically, the performance of airline industry is negatively influenced by the natural disaster at the time of 3 months later from the incidence. However, the negative impacts of social disaster on airline industry occurred not significantly over the time periods. For the hotel industry, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of hotel industry at the time of 5 months and 6 months later, respectively. Also, the negative impact of natural disaster on the performance of restaurant industry occurred at the time of 5 months later, as well as for both 3 months and 6 months later for the social disaster. Finally, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of travel agency at the time of 3 months and 4 months later, respectively. In conclusion, the types of national disasters differently influence the performance of each type of hospitality industry in Korea. These results would provide an important information to establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy for the national disasters.

Keywords: impulse response analysis, Korea, national disaster, performance of hospitality industry

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Authors: Alsaidi M. Altaher, Mohd Tahir Ismail

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Wavelet thresholding has been a power tool in curve estimation and data analysis. In the presence of outliers this non parametric estimator can not suppress the outliers involved. This study proposes a new two-stage combined method based on the use of the median filter as primary step before applying wavelet thresholding. After suppressing the outliers in a signal through the median filter, the classical wavelet thresholding is then applied for removing the remaining noise. We use automatic boundary corrections; using a low order polynomial model or local polynomial model as a more realistic rule to correct the bias at the boundary region; instead of using the classical assumptions such periodic or symmetric. A simulation experiment has been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method. Results show strong evidences that the proposed method is extremely effective in terms of correcting the boundary bias and eliminating outlier’s sensitivity.

Keywords: boundary correction, median filter, simulation, wavelet thresholding

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

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Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

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Authors: Ghulam Haider Haidaree, Nsenda Lukumwena

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Most developing nations face energy production and supply problems. This is also the case of Afghanistan whose generating capacity does not meet its energy demand. This is due in part to high security and risk caused by war which deters foreign investments and insufficient internal revenue. To address the issue above, this paper would like to suggest an alternative and affordable way to deal with the energy problem. That is by converting Solid Waste to energy. As a result, this approach tackles the municipal solid waste issue (potential cause of several diseases), contributes to the improvement of the quality of life, local economy, and so on. While addressing the solid waste problem in general, this paper samples specifically one municipality which is District-12, one of the 22 districts of Kabul city. Using geographic information system (GIS) technology, District-12 is divided into nine different zones whose municipal solid waste is respectively collected, processed, and converted into electricity and distributed to the closest area. It is important to mention that GIS has been used to estimate the amount of electricity to be distributed and to optimally position the production plant.

Keywords: energy problem, estimation of electricity, GIS zones, solid waste management system

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Waleed El-Said Abou El-Amaiem

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Sole hemorrhages are considered as a main cause for sub clinical laminitis. In this study we aimed at discussing the most prominent risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. The final multivariate logistic regression model showed, a significant association between sub acute ruminal acidosis (P< 0.05), limb affected (P< 0.05) and weight (P< 0.05) and sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. According to our knowledge, this is the first paper to discuss the risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows.

Keywords: lameness, buffalo, sole hemorrhages, breed cows

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Authors: Theresa Adderley

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Background: Aside from abstinence, correct and consistent use of latex condoms is the best known effective method to reduce HIV transmission among sexually active heterosexual individuals. When condoms are correctly used, the risk of HIV transmission is reduced by approximately 85%, relative to risk when not protected during sexual intercourse. The literature provides evidence that heterosexual young adults continue to be the group among whom STI rates are highest and the group that engages in more sexual risk-taking behaviors such as inconsistent or no condom usage. This study examines condom attitudes, condom use self-efficacy and their contributions to safer sex behaviors among heterosexual men living in The Bahamas. Methods: Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, and a convenience sample of 185 heterosexual males (Mage= 31.95, SD = 11.35), three standardized instruments were used to assess behaviors that may not only place heterosexual males at risk for HIV infection but also their female partners. Results: The results of this study suggest that condom attitudes, and condom use self-efficacy are important in explaining 24% variance in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men. Income (β= -.15, p < .01; condom attitudes, (β= .36, p < .01), and condom use self-efficacy (β= .1, p < .01) were significantly associated with safer sex behaviors. Conclusion: Rather than focusing only on the use of safer sex behaviors, an effective HIV prevention strategy must consider condom attitudes and condom use self-efficacy as specific variables that may contribute to perpetuating the transmission of HIV.

Keywords: condom attitudes, safer sex behaviors, HIV, condom self-efficacy

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Redie Kidane Ghebrehawariat, Betiel Habte Hadgu, Filmon Berhane Kahsay, Rim Berhane Fisehaye, Samuel Haile Kahsay, Saron Yemane Yosief, Selemawit Mosazghi Gilazghi

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A cross-sectional study was conducted from 22 February to 9 April 2022 on small, medium, and large holder dairy farms to determine the bovine mastitis prevalence and associated risk factors in the Anseba region, Eritrea. A total of 34 dairy farms and 193 dairy cows were randomly selected. Dairy cows were physically examined for any change on the udder and milk; a California mastitis test was performed to check sub-clinical mastitis; a closed-ended semi-structured questionnaire composed of 28 variables/risk factors (21 management risk factors and 7 animal-level risk factors) was used to determine the risk factors responsible for clinical and sub-clinical mastitis in the dairy cows. The overall cow-level prevalence of mastitis was 147 (76.2%). The animal level prevalence rate of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis was found to be 22 (11.4%) and 125 (64.8%), respectively, while herd level prevalence both for clinical and subclinical mastitis was found to be 14 (41.2%) and 26 (76.5%) respectively. Based on the already set P-value, which is <0.05, a number of risk factors were found to have a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. Generally, animal risk factors such as animal age, parity, injury on the udder or teat, and previous history of mastitis presence of injury on the udder and lactation stage were risk factors with a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. On the other hand, management risk factors with a significant relationship to the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis were herd size, failure to milk mastitic cow, at last, educational level, floor type, failure to use a towel, using one towel for more than one cow and failure to practice mastitis test. From a total of 772 quarters, 280 (36.3%) were found positive for sub-clinical mastitis using the California mastitis test; of these, 70 (9%) were weakly positive, 90 (11.7%) were distinct positive, and 120 (15.5%) were strongly positive. Furthermore, 13 (1.7%) quarters were blocked. Quarter level prevalence was right front 80 (41.5%), left front 64 (33.3%), right hind 69 (35.8%) and left hind 67 (34.7%). The study has shown that mastitis is a major problem for dairy farms and the findings suggested that mastitis is one of the limiting factors in increasing milk production. Subclinical mastitis was found to be a devastating problem, and it occurred in all three breeds of lactating dairy cattle. Therefore, farmers should work hard to avoid the above-mentioned risk factors to minimize the infection of their dairy cattle by mastitis and thereby increase their profit. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture, through the extension unit, should work in close contact with the farmers to increase awareness of the economic importance of the disease and associated risk factors.

Keywords: mastitis, prevalence, dairy cattle, Anseba, Eritrea

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Authors: Santosh Sharma

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Background: Drug abuse, needle sharing, and risky sexual behaviour are often compounded to increase the risk of HIV transmission. Injecting Drug Users are at the duel risk of needle sharing and risky sexual Behaviour, becoming more vulnerable to STI and HIV. Thus, studying the interface of injecting drug use and risky sexual behaviour is important to curb the pace of HIV epidemic among IDUs. The aim of this study is to determine the factor associated with HIV among injecting drug users in three states of India. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes covariates of multiplicity of risk behavior among injecting drug users. Findings are based on data from Integrated Behavioral and Biological Assessment (IBBA) round 2, 2010. IBBA collects the information of IDUs from the six districts. IDUs were selected on the criteria of those who were 18 years or older, who injected addictive substances/drugs for non-medical purposes at least once in past six month. A total of 1,979 in round 2 were interviewed in the IBBA. The study employs quantitative techniques using standard statistical tools to achieve the above objectives. All results presented in this paper are unweighted univariate measures. Results: Among IDUs, average duration of injecting drugs is 5.2 years. Mean duration between first drug use to first injecting drugs among younger IDUs, belongs to 18-24 years is 2.6 years Needle cleaning practices is common with above two-fifths reporting its every time cleaning. Needle sharing is quite prevalent especially among younger IDUs. Further, IDUs practicing needle sharing exhibit pervasive multi-partner behavior. Condom use with commercial partners is almost 81 %, whereas with intimate partner it is 39 %. Coexistence of needle sharing and unprotected sex enhances STI prevalence (6.8 %), which is further pronounced among divorced/separated/widowed (9.4 %). Conclusion: Working towards risk reduction for IDUs must deal with multiplicity of risk. Interventions should deal with covariates of risk, addressing youth, and risky sexual behavior.

Keywords: IDUs, HIV, STI, behaviour

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Authors: Mohamed Amhal, Jose Sayritupac

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Photovoltaic (PV) systems have risen as one of the modern renewable energy sources that are used in wide ranges to produce electricity and deliver it to the electrical grid. In parallel, monitoring systems have been deployed as a key element to track the energy production and to forecast the total production for the next days. The reliability of the PV energy production has become a crucial point in the analysis of PV systems. A deeper understanding of each phenomenon that causes a gain or a loss of energy is needed to better design, operate and maintain the PV systems. This work analyzes the current losses distribution in PV systems starting from the available solar energy, going through the DC side and AC side, to the delivery point. Most of the phenomena linked to energy losses and gains are considered and modeled, based on real time monitoring data and datasheets of the PV system components. An analysis of the order of magnitude of each loss is compared to the current literature and commercial software. To date, the analysis of PV systems performance based on a breakdown structure of energy losses and gains is not covered enough in the literature, except in some software where the concept is very common. The cutting-edge of the current analysis is the implementation of software tools for energy losses estimation in PV systems based on several energy losses definitions and estimation technics. The developed tools have been validated and tested on some PV plants in France, which are operating for years. Among the major findings of the current study: First, PV plants in France show very low rates of soiling and aging. Second, the distribution of other losses is comparable to the literature. Third, all losses reported are correlated to operational and environmental conditions. For future work, an extended analysis on further PV plants in France and abroad will be performed.

Keywords: energy gains, energy losses, losses distribution, monitoring, photovoltaic, photovoltaic systems

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Clean development mechanism (CDM) can act as an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. This mechanism can effectively reduce the emission of CO2 and other green house gases (GHG). Construction of a mega infrastructure project like underground corridor construction for metro rail operation involves in consumption of substantial quantity of concrete which consumes huge quantity of energy consuming materials like cement and steel. This paper is an attempt to develop an integrated clean development mechanism and risk management approach for sustainable development for an underground corridor metro rail project in India during its construction phase. It was observed that about 35% reduction in CO2 emission can be obtained by adding fly ash as a part replacement of cement. The reduced emission quantity of CO2 which is of the quantum of about 21,646.36 MT would result in cost savings of approximately INR 8.5 million (USD 1,29,878).But construction and operation of such infrastructure projects of the present era are subject to huge risks and uncertainties throughout all the phases of the project, thus reducing the probability of successful completion of the project within stipulated time and cost frame. Thus, an integrated approach of combining CDM with risk management would enable the metro rail authorities to develop a sustainable risk mitigation measure framework to ensure more cost and energy savings and lesser time and cost over-run.

Keywords: clean development mechanism (CDM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley

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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.

Keywords: classification, CNN, deep learning, prediction, SNR

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

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State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. Individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) Which impact has the individual risk-willingness on BMI decisions? And ii) how do group interaction effects impact BMI decisions? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, the applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, decision-making, group biases, group decisions, group-interaction effects, risk-willingness

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Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

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Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Idit Kalisher, Israel Luski

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One result of the growing dynamicity of labor markets in recent decades is a wider scope of employment mobility – i.e., transitions between employers, either within or between careers. Employment mobility decisions are primarily affected by the current employment status of the worker, which is reflected in wage and tenure. Using 34,328 observations from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLS79), which were derived from the USA population between 1990 and 2012, this paper aims to investigate the effects of wage and tenure over employment mobility choices, and additionally to examine the effects of other personal characteristics, individual labor market characteristics and macroeconomic factors. The estimation strategy was designed to address two challenges that arise from the combination of the model and the data: (a) endogeneity of the wage and the tenure in the choice equation; and (b) unobserved heterogeneity, as the data of this research is longitudinal. To address (a), estimation was performed using two-stage limited dependent variable procedure (2SLDV); and to address (b), the second stage was estimated using femlogit – an implementation of the multinomial logit model with fixed effects. Among workers who have experienced at least one turnover, the wage was found to have a main effect on career turnover likelihood of all workers, whereas the wage effect on job turnover likelihood was found to be dependent on individual characteristics. The wage was found to negatively affect the turnover likelihood and the effect was found to vary across wage level: high-wage workers were more affected compared to low-wage workers. Tenure was found to have a main positive effect on both turnover types’ likelihoods, though the effect was moderated by the wage. The findings also reveal that as their wage increases, women are more likely to turnover than men, and academically educated workers are more likely to turnover within careers. Minorities were found to be as likely as Caucasians to turnover post wage-increase, but less likely to turnover with each additional tenure year. The wage and the tenure effects were found to vary also between careers. The difference in attitude towards money, labor market opportunities and risk aversion could explain these findings. Additionally, the likelihood of a turnover was found to be affected by previous unemployment spells, age, and other labor market and personal characteristics. The results of this research could assist policymakers as well as business owners and employers. The former may be able to encourage women and older workers’ employment by considering the effects of gender and age on the probability of a turnover, and the latter may be able to assess their employees’ likelihood of a turnover by considering the effects of their personal characteristics.

Keywords: employment mobility, endogeneity, femlogit, turnover

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Christofas Stergianos, Jason Atkin, Herve Morvan

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As air traffic increases, more airports are interested in utilizing optimization methods. Many processes happen in parallel at an airport, and complex models are needed in order to have a reliable solution that can be implemented for ground movement operations. The ground movement for aircraft in an airport, allocating a path to each aircraft to follow in order to reach their destination (e.g. runway or gate), is one process that could be optimized. The Quickest Path Problem with Time Windows (QPPTW) algorithm has been developed to provide a conflict-free routing of vehicles and has been applied to routing aircraft around an airport. It was subsequently modified to increase the accuracy for airport applications. These modifications take into consideration specific characteristics of the problem, such as: the pushback process, which considers the extra time that is needed for pushing back an aircraft and turning its engines on; stand holding where any waiting should be allocated to the stand; and runway sequencing, where the sequence of the aircraft that take off is optimized and has to be respected. QPPTW involves searching for the quickest path by expanding the search in all directions, similarly to Dijkstra’s algorithm. Finding a way to direct the expansion can potentially assist the search and achieve a better performance. We have further modified the QPPTW algorithm to use a heuristic approach in order to guide the search. This new algorithm is based on the A-star search method but estimates the remaining time (instead of distance) in order to assess how far the target is. It is important to consider the remaining time that it is needed to reach the target, so that delays that are caused by other aircraft can be part of the optimization method. All of the other characteristics are still considered and time windows are still used in order to route multiple aircraft rather than a single aircraft. In this way the quickest path is found for each aircraft while taking into account the movements of the previously routed aircraft. After running experiments using a week of real aircraft data from Zurich Airport, the new algorithm (A-star QPPTW) was found to route aircraft much more quickly, being especially fast in routing the departing aircraft where pushback delays are significant. On average A-star QPPTW could route a full day (755 to 837 aircraft movements) 56% faster than the original algorithm. In total the routing of a full week of aircraft took only 12 seconds with the new algorithm, 15 seconds faster than the original algorithm. For real time application, the algorithm needs to be very fast, and this speed increase will allow us to add additional features and complexity, allowing further integration with other processes in airports and leading to more optimized and environmentally friendly airports.

Keywords: a-star search, airport operations, ground movement optimization, routing and scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

Procedia PDF Downloads 626

Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The educational system faces a significant concern with regards to Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, which are learning disabilities impacting reading and writing abilities. This is particularly challenging for children who speak the Sinhala language due to its complexity and uniqueness. Commonly used methods to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia rely on subjective assessments, leading to limited coverage and time-consuming processes. Consequently, delays in diagnoses and missed opportunities for early intervention can occur. To address this issue, the project developed a hybrid model that incorporates various deep learning techniques to detect the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16, and YOLOv8 models were integrated to identify handwriting issues. The outputs of these models were then combined with other input data and fed into an MLP model. Hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, enabling the identification of optimal values for the model. This approach proved to be highly effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention. The Resnet50 model exhibited a training accuracy of 0.9804 and a validation accuracy of 0.9653. The VGG16 model achieved a training accuracy of 0.9991 and a validation accuracy of 0.9891. The MLP model demonstrated impressive results with a training accuracy of 0.99918, a testing accuracy of 0.99223, and a loss of 0.01371. These outcomes showcase the high accuracy achieved by the proposed hybrid model in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, dyslexia, dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Parvin Mirmiran, Zahra Bahadoran, Nazanin Moslehi, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background and aim: We aimed to investigate the effects of green fruits and vegetables (green FV) consumption on the 3-year changes of cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted in the framework of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, between 2006-2008 and 2009-2011, on 1272 adults. Dietary intake of green FV, including green cabbage, broccoli, lettuce, celery, green beans, green peas, cucumber, leafy vegetables, zucchini, green chili and bell pepper, and kiwi fruit, has been assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline and second examination. Demographics, anthropometrics and biochemical measures were evaluated at baseline and 3 years later. The associations of cardiometabolic risk changes with mean intake of green FV were estimated. Results: The mean age of men and women at baseline was 39.8±12.7 and 37.3±12.1 years, respectively. Mean intake of green FV was 152±77 g/d. More intake from green FV was accompanied to more intake of vitamin A, α and β-carotene, lutein, β-criptoxanthine, potassium, magnesium and fiber. Consumption of green FV was inversely associated with 3-year change of waist circumference (β= -0.07, P=0.01), total cholesterol (β= -0.11, P=0.01) and triglycerides (β= -0.13, P=0.01). Each 25 g/d increase in consumption of green FV decreased the incidence of hyper-triglyceridemia by 12% (OR:0.88, 95%CI:0.71-0.99) in men. In women, no significant association was observed between consumption of green FV with cardiometabolic risk factors. Conclusion: Higher consumption of green FV could have preventive effects against abdominal fat gain and lipid disorders.

Keywords: cardiometabolic risk factors, abdominal obesity, lipid disorders, fruits, vegetables

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Jean-Paul Kapuya Bulaba Nyembwe, John Omomoluwa Ogundiran, Manuel Carlos Gameiro da Silva

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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) remains a global concern because it impacts people's comfort, health, performance, and general well-being. People spend a significant amount of time in buildings or while commuting, hence ensuring the minimal risk in indoor spaces by ensuring suitable IEQ. IEQ studies are limited regarding developing sub-Saharan countries, whereas there is also a huge risk and concern for the current population and geometric growth as many cities in the region will become mega-cities by 2040 (World Bank report). The absence of suitable IEQ regulations and energy poverty are reasons to assess the IEQ gaps for increased awareness of sustainable interventions to minimize the associated risk. This study evaluates the gaps and potential hazards that exist in the IEQ of sub-Saharan countries using empirical studies of hospital occupants and BRT bus passengers and drivers. The Surveys were conducted in 3 cities of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos metropolis of Nigeria. The results suggest that gaps exist in IEQ for these regions. The gaps indicate existential risk to people’s health, comfort, and well-being. The inferential conclusions are that there is a need for further scientific studies, improvement in IEQ conditions, and ensuring suitable regulations for developing sub-Saharan countries.

Keywords: health hazards, hospitals indoor environmental quality, indoor spaces, occupants, sub-Saharan countries, vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha

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Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.

Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova

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Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.

Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 167