Search results for: unequal mean operation times
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6436

Search results for: unequal mean operation times

5386 Legal Problems with the Thai Political Party Establishment

Authors: Paiboon Chuwatthanakij

Abstract:

Each of the countries around the world has different ways of management and many of them depend on people to administrate their country. Thailand, for example, empowers the sovereignty of Thai people under constitution; however, our Thai voting system is not able to flow fast enough under the current Political management system. The sovereignty of Thai people is addressing this problem through representatives during current elections, in order to set a new policy for the countries ideology to change in the House and the Cabinet. This is particularly important in a democracy to be developed under our current political institution. The Organic Act on Political Parties 2007 is the establishment we have today that is causing confrontations within the establishment. There are many political parties that will soon be abolished. Many political parties have already been subsidized. This research study is to analyze the legal problems with the political party establishment under the Organic Act on Political Parties 2007. This will focus on the freedom of each political establishment compared to an effective political operation. Textbooks and academic papers will be referenced from studies home and abroad. The study revealed that Organic Act on Political Parties 2007 has strict provisions on the political structure over the number of members and the number of branches involved within political parties system. Such operations shall be completed within one year; but under the existing laws the small parties are not able to participate with the bigger parties. The cities are capable of fulfilling small political party requirements but fail to become coalesced because the current laws won't allow them to be united as one. It is important to allow all independent political parties to join our current political structure. Board members can’t help the smaller parties to become a large organization under the existing Thai laws. Creating a new establishment that functions efficiently throughout all branches would be one solution to these legal problems between all political parties. With this new operation, individual political parties can participate with the bigger parties during elections. Until current political institutions change their system to accommodate public opinion, these current Thai laws will continue to be a problem with all political parties in Thailand.

Keywords: coalesced, political party, sovereignty, elections

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5385 Performance Analysis of Search Medical Imaging Service on Cloud Storage Using Decision Trees

Authors: González A. Julio, Ramírez L. Leonardo, Puerta A. Gabriel

Abstract:

Telemedicine services use a large amount of data, most of which are diagnostic images in Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) and Health Level Seven (HL7) formats. Metadata is generated from each related image to support their identification. This study presents the use of decision trees for the optimization of information search processes for diagnostic images, hosted on the cloud server. To analyze the performance in the server, the following quality of service (QoS) metrics are evaluated: delay, bandwidth, jitter, latency and throughput in five test scenarios for a total of 26 experiments during the loading and downloading of DICOM images, hosted by the telemedicine group server of the Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, Bogotá, Colombia. By applying decision trees as a data mining technique and comparing it with the sequential search, it was possible to evaluate the search times of diagnostic images in the server. The results show that by using the metadata in decision trees, the search times are substantially improved, the computational resources are optimized and the request management of the telemedicine image service is improved. Based on the experiments carried out, search efficiency increased by 45% in relation to the sequential search, given that, when downloading a diagnostic image, false positives are avoided in management and acquisition processes of said information. It is concluded that, for the diagnostic images services in telemedicine, the technique of decision trees guarantees the accessibility and robustness in the acquisition and manipulation of medical images, in improvement of the diagnoses and medical procedures in patients.

Keywords: cloud storage, decision trees, diagnostic image, search, telemedicine

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5384 Knowledge and Ontology Engineering in Continuous Monitoring of Production Systems

Authors: Maciej Zaręba, Sławomir Lasota

Abstract:

The monitoring of manufacturing processes is an important issue in nowadays ERP systems. The identification and analysis of appropriate data for the units that take part in the production process are ones of the most crucial problems. In this paper, the authors introduce a new approach towards modelling the relation between production units, signals, and factors possible to obtain from the production system. The main idea for the system is based on the ontology of production units.

Keywords: manufacturing operation management, OWL, ontology implementation, ontology modeling

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5383 Design and Optimization of Spoke Rotor Type Brushless Direct Current Motor for Electric Vehicles Using Different Flux Barriers

Authors: Ismail Kurt, Necibe Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

Today, with the reduction in semiconductor system costs, Brushless Direct Current (BLDC) motors have become widely preferred. Based on rotor architecture, BLDC structures are divided into internal permanent magnet (IPM) and surface permanent magnet (SPM). However, permanent magnet (PM) motors in electric vehicles (EVs) are still predominantly based on interior permanent magnet (IPM) motors, as the rotors do not require sleeves, the PMs are better protected by the rotor cores, and the air-gap lengths can be much smaller. This study discusses the IPM rotor structure in detail, highlighting its higher torque levels, reluctance torque, wide speed range operation, and production advantages. IPM rotor structures are particularly preferred in EVs due to their high-speed capabilities, torque density and field weakening (FW) features. In FW applications, the motor becomes more suitable for operation at torques lower than the rated torque but at speeds above the rated speed. Although V-type and triangular IPM rotor structures are generally preferred in EV applications, the spoke-type rotor structure offers distinct advantages, making it a competitive option for these systems. The flux barriers in the rotor significantly affect motor performance, providing notable benefits in both motor efficiency and cost. This study utilizes ANSYS/Maxwell simulation software to analyze the spoke-type IPM motor and examine its key design parameters. Through analytical and 2D analysis, preliminary motor design and parameter optimization have been carried out. During the parameter optimization phase, torque ripple a common issue, especially for IPM motors has been investigated, along with the associated changes in motor parameters.

Keywords: electric vehicle, field weakening, flux barrier, spoke rotor.

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5382 Experimental Investigation of Visual Comfort Requirement in Garment Factories and Identify the Cost Saving Opportunities

Authors: M. A. Wijewardane, S. A. N. C. Sudasinghe, H. K. G. Punchihewa, W. K. D. L. Wickramasinghe, S. A. Philip, M. R. S. U. Kumara

Abstract:

Visual comfort is one of the major parameters that can be taken to measure the human comfort in any environment. If the provided illuminance level in a working environment does not meet the workers visual comfort, it will lead to eye-strain, fatigue, headache, stress, accidents and finally, poor productivity. However, improvements in lighting do not necessarily mean that the workplace requires more light. Unnecessarily higher illuminance levels will also cause poor visual comfort and health risks. In addition, more power consumption on lighting will also result in higher energy costs. So, during this study, visual comfort and the illuminance requirement for the workers in textile/apparel industry were studied to perform different tasks (i.e. cutting, sewing and knitting) at their workplace. Experimental studies were designed to identify the optimum illuminance requirement depending upon the varied fabric colour and type and finally, energy saving potentials due to controlled illuminance level depending on the workforce requirement were analysed. Visual performance of workers during the sewing operation was studied using the ‘landolt ring experiment’. It was revealed that around 36.3% of the workers would like to work if the illuminance level varies from 601 lux to 850 lux illuminance level and 45.9% of the workers are not happy to work if the illuminance level reduces less than 600 lux and greater than 850 lux. Moreover, more than 65% of the workers who do not satisfy with the existing illuminance levels of the production floors suggested that they have headache, eye diseases, or both diseases due to poor visual comfort. In addition, findings of the energy analysis revealed that the energy-saving potential of 5%, 10%, 24%, 8% and 16% can be anticipated for fabric colours, red, blue, yellow, black and white respectively, when the 800 lux is the prevailing illuminance level for sewing operation.

Keywords: Landolt Ring experiment, lighting energy consumption, illuminance, textile and apparel industry, visual comfort

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5381 Transfigurative Changes of Governmental Responsibility

Authors: Ákos Cserny

Abstract:

The unequivocal increase of the area of operation of the executive power can happen with the appearance of new areas to be influenced and its integration in the power, or at the expense of the scopes of other organs with public authority. The extension of the executive can only be accepted within the framework of the rule of law if parallel with this process we get constitutional guarantees that the exercise of power is kept within constitutional framework. Failure to do so, however, may result in the lack, deficit of democracy and democratic sense, and may cause an overwhelming dominance of the executive power. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present executive power and responsibility in the context of different dimensions.

Keywords: confidence, constitution, executive power, liabiliy, parliamentarism

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5380 Juvenile Justice in China: A Historical Approach

Authors: Xianlu Zeng

Abstract:

China has undergone rapid economic growth over the last three decades. During this time, China-focused study has become one of the most popular areas of research. However, even though China has one of the oldest legal traditions in the world, there is limited research available regarding the development and operation of China’s juvenile justice system. This article will provide general information about China’s juvenile justice tradition along with a review of its reformation in 2013. A discussion is presented that provides some thoughts about how successful these reforms have been and where China may need to head.

Keywords: China, history, juvenile justice, legal traditions

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5379 Prevalence and Associated Factors of Protein-Energy Malnutrition Among Children Aged 6-59 Months in Babile Town from April to June 2016

Authors: Tajudin Ahmed

Abstract:

Malnutrition is a significant problem in developing countries, particularly among children, due to inadequate diets, lack of proper care, and unequal distribution of food within households. High rates of malnutrition have been shown in Ethiopia, including stunting, underweight, and wasting. This study aims to assess the prevalence and associated factors of Protein-Energy Malnutrition (PEM) among children aged 6-59 months in Babile Town. The study utilized a community-based cross-sectional design conducted in Babile Town, Eastern Ethiopia. Two kebeles were randomly selected, and a census was conducted to identify eligible households. A total of 391 households with children aged 6-59 months were included in the study. Data was collected using structured questionnaires, and anthropometric measurements were taken to assess the weight and height of the children. The study found that a majority of the mothers (72.34%) and fathers (43%) had no formal education. Among the mothers who could read and write, a small percentage had completed primary (14%) or secondary (14%) education, and even fewer had higher education (2.7%). Similarly, among the fathers who could read and write, a majority had completed primary (46.15%) or secondary (27.22%) education, with smaller percentages completing preparatory (8.4%) or higher education (6.29%). The prevalence of malnutrition in the study area was high, with 38.85% of children experiencing stunting (8.2% severely stunted), 50.13% wasting (9% severely wasted), and 41.43% underweight (6.65% severely underweight). These findings indicate a significant burden of malnutrition in Babile Town, likely exacerbated by the high prevalence of infectious diseases such as diarrhea. The study concludes that the prevalence of malnutrition, particularly stunting, wasting, and underweight, is high in Babile Town. The findings indicate the urgent need for interventions to address malnutrition and improve nutrition and healthcare practices in the study area. These results can serve as a baseline for future studies and inform policymakers and healthcare providers in their efforts to combat childhood malnutrition.

Keywords: protein-energy malnutrition, children 6-59 month age babble town, Marasmus

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5378 Increasing Power Transfer Capacity of Distribution Networks Using Direct Current Feeders

Authors: Akim Borbuev, Francisco de León

Abstract:

Economic and population growth in densely-populated urban areas introduce major challenges to distribution system operators, planers, and designers. To supply added loads, utilities are frequently forced to invest in new distribution feeders. However, this is becoming increasingly more challenging due to space limitations and rising installation costs in urban settings. This paper proposes the conversion of critical alternating current (ac) distribution feeders into direct current (dc) feeders to increase the power transfer capacity by a factor as high as four. Current trends suggest that the return of dc transmission, distribution, and utilization are inevitable. Since a total system-level transformation to dc operation is not possible in a short period of time due to the needed huge investments and utility unreadiness, this paper recommends that feeders that are expected to exceed their limits in near future are converted to dc. The increase in power transfer capacity is achieved through several key differences between ac and dc power transmission systems. First, it is shown that underground cables can be operated at higher dc voltage than the ac voltage for the same dielectric stress in the insulation. Second, cable sheath losses, due to induced voltages yielding circulation currents, that can be as high as phase conductor losses under ac operation, are not present under dc. Finally, skin and proximity effects in conductors and sheaths do not exist in dc cables. The paper demonstrates that in addition to the increased power transfer capacity utilities substituting ac feeders by dc feeders could benefit from significant lower costs and reduced losses. Installing dc feeders is less expensive than installing new ac feeders even when new trenches are not needed. Case studies using the IEEE 342-Node Low Voltage Networked Test System quantify the technical and economic benefits of dc feeders.

Keywords: DC power systems, distribution feeders, distribution networks, power transfer capacity

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5377 Phytoremediation of Textile Wastewater Laden with 1,4-Dioxane Using Eichhornia crassipes: A Sustainable Development Approach

Authors: Hadeer Ibrahiem, Mahmoud Nasr, Masarrat M. M. Migahid, Mohamed A. Ghazy

Abstract:

The release of textile wastewater loaded with 1,4 dioxane into aquatic ecosystems has been associated with various human health risks and adverse environmental impacts. In parallel, phytoremediation has been recently employed to treat highly polluted wastewater because various plant species tend to produce certain enzymes as a defense mechanism against a toxic environment. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the ability of phytoremediation using Eichhornia crassipes for the removal of various pollutants, including 1,4 dioxane, from textile wastewater. A phytoremediation system composed of Eichhornia crassipes was acclimatized for 10 d, and then operated in four lab-scale hydroponic systems, viz., negative control, positive control, and two different 1,4 dioxane concentration (400 and 500 mg/L). After 11 d of operation, the phytoremediation system achieved removal efficiencies of 67.5±3.4%, 89.4±4.4%, 83.6±3.8% for 1,4 dioxane (at initial concentration 400 mg/L), chemical oxygen demand (COD) (at initial concentration 679 mg/L), and cumulative heavy metals, respectively. The removal of these pollutants was mainly supported by the phyto-sorption and phytodegradation mechanisms. The economic feasibility of this phytoremediation system was validated by estimating the capital and operating costs, requiring 4.6 USD for the treatment of 1 m3 textile wastewater. The study concluded that the phytoremediation process could be used as a practical and economical approach to treat textile wastewater laden with various organic and inorganic pollutants. Due to the observed pollution reduction and human health protection, the study objectives would fulfill the targets of SDG 3 “Good Health and Well-being” and SDG 6 “Clean Water and Sanitation”. Further studies are required to (i) investigate the ability of plant species to withstand higher concentrations of 1,4 dioxane for an extended operation time and (ii) understand the biochemical pathways for the degradation of 1,4 dioxane via the action of plant enzymes and the associated microbial community.

Keywords: 1, 4 dioxane concentrations, hydrophytes, Eichhornia crassipes, phytoremediation effectiveness, SDGs, textile industrial effluent

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5376 Effect of Ultrasonic Assisted High Pressure Soaking of Soybean on Soymilk Properties

Authors: Rahul Kumar, Pavuluri Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of ultrasound-assisted high pressure (HP) treatment on the soaking characteristic of soybeans and extracted soy milk quality. The soybean (variety) was subjected to sonication (US) at ambient temperature for 15 and 30 min followed by HP treatment in the range of 200-400 MPa for dwell times 5-10 min. The bean samples were also compared with HPP samples (200-400 MPa; 5-10 mins), overnight soaked samples(12-15 h) and thermal treated samples (100°C/30 min) followed by overnight soaking for 12-15 h soaking. Rapid soaking within 40 min was achieved by the combined US-HPP treatment, and it reduced the soaking time by about 25 times in comparison to overnight soaking or thermal treatment followed by soaking. Reducing the soaking time of soybeans is expected to suppress the development of undesirable beany flavor of soy milk developed during normal soaking milk extraction. The optimum moisture uptake by the sonicated-pressure treated soybeans was 60-62% (w.b) similar to that obtained after overnight soaking for 12-15 h or thermal treatment followed by overnight soaking. pH of soy milk was not much affected by the different US-HPP treatments and overnight soaking which centered around the range of 6.6-6.7 much like the normal cow milk. For milk extracted from thermally treated soy samples, pH reduced to 6.2. Total soluble solids were found to be maximum for the normal overnight soaked soy samples, and it was in the range of 10.3-10.6. For the HPP treated soy milk, the TSS reduced to 7.4 while sonication further reduced it to 6.2. TSS was found to be getting reduced with increasing time of ultrasonication. Further reduction in TSS to 2.3 was observed in soy milk produced from thermally treated samples following overnight soaking. Our results conclude that thermally treated beans' milk is less stable and more acidic, soaking is very rapid compared to overnight soaking hence milk productivity can be enhanced with less development of undesirable beany flavor.

Keywords: beany flavor, high pressure processing, high pressure, soybean, soaking, milk, ultrasound, wet basis

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5375 Sludge Marvel (Densification): The Ultimate Solution For Doing More With Less Effort!

Authors: Raj Chavan

Abstract:

At present, the United States is home to more than 14,000 Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs), of which approximately 35% have implemented nutrient limits of some kind. These WRRFs contribute 10 to 15% of the total nutrient burden to surface rivers in the United States and account for approximately 1% of total power demand and 2% of total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). There are several factors that have influenced the development of densification technologies in the direction of more compact and energy-efficient nutrient removal processes. Prior to surface water discharge, existing facilities that necessitate capacity expansion or biomass densification for greater treatability within the same footprint are being subjected to stricter nutrient removal requirements. Densification of activated sludge as a method for nutrient removal and process intensification at WRRFs has garnered considerable attention in recent times. The biological processes take place within the aerobic sediment granules, which form the basis of the technology. The possibility of generating granular sludge through continuous (or conventional) activated sludge processes (CAS) or densification of biomass through the transfer of activated sludge flocs to a denser biomass aggregate as an exceptionally efficient intensification technique has generated considerable interest. This presentation aims to furnish attendees with a foundational comprehension of densification through the illustration of practical concerns and insights. The subsequent subjects will be deliberated upon. What are some potential techniques for producing and preserving densified granules? What processes are responsible for the densification of biological flocs? How do physical selectors contribute to the process of biological flocs becoming denser? What viable strategies exist for the management of densified biological flocs, and which design parameters of physical selection influence the retention of densified biological flocs? determining operational solutions for floc and granule customization in order to meet capacity and performance objectives? The answers to these pivotal questions will be derived from existing full-scale treatment facilities, bench-scale and pilot-scale investigations, and existing literature data. By the conclusion of the presentation, the audience will possess a fundamental comprehension of the densification concept and its significance in attaining effective effluent treatment. Additionally, case studies pertaining to the design and operation of densification procedures will be incorporated into the presentation.

Keywords: densification, intensification, nutrient removal, granular sludge

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5374 Implementation of Enterprise Asset Management (E-AM) System at Oman Electricity Transmission Company

Authors: Omran Al Balushi, Haitham Al Rawahi

Abstract:

Enterprise Asset Management (eAM) has been implemented across different Generation, Transmission and Distribution subsidiaries in Nama Group companies. As part of Nama group, Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) was the first company to implement this system. It was very important for OETC to implement and maintain such a system to achieve its business objectives and for effective operations, which will also support the delivery of the asset management strategy. Enterprise Asset Management (eAM) addresses the comprehensive asset maintenance requirements of Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC). OETC needs to optimize capacity and increase utilization, while lowering unit production. E-AM will enable OETC to adopt this strategy. Implementation of e-AM has improved operation performance with preventive and scheduled maintenance as well as it increased safety. Implementation of e-AM will also enable OETC to create optimal asset management strategy which will increase revenue and decrease cost by effectively monitoring operational data such as maintenance history and operation conditions. CMMS (Computerised Maintenance Management System) is the main software and the back-bone of e-AM system. It is used to provide an improved working practice to properly establish information and data flow related to maintenance activities. Implementation of e-AM system was one of the factors that supported OETC to achieve ISO55001 Certificate on fourth quarter of 2016. Also, full implementation of e-AM system will result in strong integration between CMMS and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) application and it will improve OETC to build a reliable maintenance strategy for all asset classes in its Transmission network. In this paper we will share our experience and knowledge of implementing such a system and how it supported OETC’s management to make decisions. Also we would highlight the challenges and difficulties that we encountered during the implementation of e-AM. Also, we will list some features and advantages of e-AM in asset management, preventive maintenance and maintenance cost management.

Keywords: CMMS, Maintenance Management, Asset Management, Maintenance Strategy

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5373 The Impact of Undisturbed Flow Speed on the Correlation of Aerodynamic Coefficients as a Function of the Angle of Attack for the Gyroplane Body

Authors: Zbigniew Czyz, Krzysztof Skiba, Miroslaw Wendeker

Abstract:

This paper discusses the results of aerodynamic investigation of the Tajfun gyroplane body designed by a Polish company, Aviation Artur Trendak. This gyroplane has been studied as a 1:8 scale model. Scaling objects for aerodynamic investigation is an inherent procedure in any kind of designing. If scaling, the criteria of similarity need to be satisfied. The basic criteria of similarity are geometric, kinematic and dynamic. Despite the results of aerodynamic research are often reduced to aerodynamic coefficients, one should pay attention to how values of coefficients behave if certain criteria are to be satisfied. To satisfy the dynamic criterion, for example, the Reynolds number should be focused on. This is the correlation of inertial to viscous forces. With the multiplied flow speed by the specific dimension as a numerator (with a constant kinematic viscosity coefficient), flow speed in a wind tunnel research should be increased as many times as an object is decreased. The aerodynamic coefficients specified in this research depend on the real forces that act on an object, its specific dimension, medium speed and variations in its density. Rapid prototyping with a 3D printer was applied to create the research object. The research was performed with a T-1 low-speed wind tunnel (its diameter of the measurement volume is 1.5 m) and a six-element aerodynamic internal scales, WDP1, at the Institute of Aviation in Warsaw. This T-1 wind tunnel is low-speed continuous operation with open space measurement. The research covered a number of the selected speeds of undisturbed flow, i.e. V = 20, 30 and 40 m/s, corresponding to the Reynolds numbers (as referred to 1 m) Re = 1.31∙106, 1.96∙106, 2.62∙106 for the angles of attack ranging -15° ≤ α ≤ 20°. Our research resulted in basic aerodynamic characteristics and observing the impact of undisturbed flow speed on the correlation of aerodynamic coefficients as a function of the angle of attack of the gyroplane body. If the speed of undisturbed flow in the wind tunnel changes, the aerodynamic coefficients are significantly impacted. At speed from 20 m/s to 30 m/s, drag coefficient, Cx, changes by 2.4% up to 9.9%, whereas lift coefficient, Cz, changes by -25.5% up to 15.7% if the angle of attack of 0° excluded or by -25.5% up to 236.9% if the angle of attack of 0° included. Within the same speed range, the coefficient of a pitching moment, Cmy, changes by -21.1% up to 7.3% if the angles of attack -15° and -10° excluded or by -142.8% up to 618.4% if the angle of attack -15° and -10° included. These discrepancies in the coefficients of aerodynamic forces definitely need to consider while designing the aircraft. For example, if load of certain aircraft surfaces is calculated, additional correction factors definitely need to be applied. This study allows us to estimate the discrepancies in the aerodynamic forces while scaling the aircraft. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: aerodynamics, criteria of similarity, gyroplane, research tunnel

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5372 Microgrid Design Under Optimal Control With Batch Reinforcement Learning

Authors: Valentin Père, Mathieu Milhé, Fabien Baillon, Jean-Louis Dirion

Abstract:

Microgrids offer potential solutions to meet the need for local grid stability and increase isolated networks autonomy with the integration of intermittent renewable energy production and storage facilities. In such a context, sizing production and storage for a given network is a complex task, highly depending on input data such as power load profile and renewable resource availability. This work aims at developing an operating cost computation methodology for different microgrid designs based on the use of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to tackle the optimal operation problem in stochastic environments. RL is a data-based sequential decision control method based on Markov decision processes that enable the consideration of random variables for control at a chosen time scale. Agents trained via RL constitute a promising class of Energy Management Systems (EMS) for the operation of microgrids with energy storage. Microgrid sizing (or design) is generally performed by minimizing investment costs and operational costs arising from the EMS behavior. The latter might include economic aspects (power purchase, facilities aging), social aspects (load curtailment), and ecological aspects (carbon emissions). Sizing variables are related to major constraints on the optimal operation of the network by the EMS. In this work, an islanded mode microgrid is considered. Renewable generation is done with photovoltaic panels; an electrochemical battery ensures short-term electricity storage. The controllable unit is a hydrogen tank that is used as a long-term storage unit. The proposed approach focus on the transfer of agent learning for the near-optimal operating cost approximation with deep RL for each microgrid size. Like most data-based algorithms, the training step in RL leads to important computer time. The objective of this work is thus to study the potential of Batch-Constrained Q-learning (BCQ) for the optimal sizing of microgrids and especially to reduce the computation time of operating cost estimation in several microgrid configurations. BCQ is an off-line RL algorithm that is known to be data efficient and can learn better policies than on-line RL algorithms on the same buffer. The general idea is to use the learned policy of agents trained in similar environments to constitute a buffer. The latter is used to train BCQ, and thus the agent learning can be performed without update during interaction sampling. A comparison between online RL and the presented method is performed based on the score by environment and on the computation time.

Keywords: batch-constrained reinforcement learning, control, design, optimal

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5371 Groundhog Day as a Model for the Repeating Spectator and the Film Academic: Re-Watching the Same Films Again Can Create Different Experiences and Ideas

Authors: Leiya Ho Yin Lee

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Groundhog Day (Harold Ramis, 1993) may seemingly be a fairly unremarkable Hollywood comedy film in the 90s, it is argued that the film, with its protagonist Phil (Bill Murray), inadvertently, but perfectly, demonstrates an important aspect in filmmaking, film spectatorship and film research: repetition. Very rarely does a narrative film use one, and only one, take in its shooting. The multiple ‘repeats’ of Phil’s various endeavours due to his being trapped in a perpetual loop of the same day — from stealing money and tricking a woman into a casual relationship, to his multiple suicides, to eventually helping people in need — make the process of doing multiple ‘takes’ in filmmaking explicit. But perhaps more significantly, Phil represents a perfect model for the spectator/cinephile who has seen their favourite film for multiple times that they can remember every single detail. Crucially, their favourite film never changes, as it is a recording, but the cinephile’s experience of that very same film is most likely different each time they watch it again, just as Phil’s character and personality has completely transformed, from selfish and egotistic, to depressed and nihilistic, and ultimately to sympathetic and caring, even though he is living the exact same day. Furthermore, the author did not come up with this stimulating juxtaposition of film spectatorship and Groundhog Day the first time the author saw the film; it took the author a few casual re-viewings to notice the film’s self-reflexivity. And then, when working on it in the author’s research, the author had to re-view the film for more times, and have subsequently noticed even more things previously unnoticed. In this way, Groundhog Day not only stands for a model for filmmaking and film spectatorship, it also illustrates the act of academic research, especially in Film Studies where repeatedly viewing the same films is a prerequisite before new ideas and concepts are discovered from old material. This also recalls Deleuze’s thesis on difference and repetition in that repetition creates difference and it is difference that creates thought.

Keywords: narrative comprehension, repeated viewing, repetition, spectatorship

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5370 Reliability Analysis in Power Distribution System

Authors: R. A. Deshpande, P. Chandhra Sekhar, V. Sankar

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In this paper, we discussed the basic reliability evaluation techniques needed to evaluate the reliability of distribution systems which are applied in distribution system planning and operation. Basically, the reliability study can also help to predict the reliability performance of the system after quantifying the impact of adding new components to the system. The number and locations of new components needed to improve the reliability indices to certain limits are identified and studied.

Keywords: distribution system, reliability indices, urban feeder, rural feeder

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5369 Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW)-Induced Mixing Enhances Biomolecules Kinetics in a Novel Phase-Interrogation Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) Microfluidic Biosensor

Authors: M. Agostini, A. Sonato, G. Greco, M. Travagliati, G. Ruffato, E. Gazzola, D. Liuni, F. Romanato, M. Cecchini

Abstract:

Since their first demonstration in the early 1980s, surface plasmon resonance (SPR) sensors have been widely recognized as useful tools for detecting chemical and biological species, and the interest of the scientific community toward this technology has known a rapid growth in the past two decades owing to their high sensitivity, label-free operation and possibility of real-time detection. Recent works have suggested that a turning point in SPR sensor research would be the combination of SPR strategies with other technologies in order to reduce human handling of samples, improve integration and plasmonic sensitivity. In this light, microfluidics has been attracting growing interest. By properly designing microfluidic biochips it is possible to miniaturize the analyte-sensitive areas with an overall reduction of the chip dimension, reduce the liquid reagents and sample volume, improve automation, and increase the number of experiments in a single biochip by multiplexing approaches. However, as the fluidic channel dimensions approach the micron scale, laminar flows become dominant owing to the low Reynolds numbers that typically characterize microfluidics. In these environments mixing times are usually dominated by diffusion, which can be prohibitively long and lead to long-lasting biochemistry experiments. An elegant method to overcome these issues is to actively perturb the liquid laminar flow by exploiting surface acoustic waves (SAWs). With this work, we demonstrate a new approach for SPR biosensing based on the combination of microfluidics, SAW-induced mixing and the real-time phase-interrogation grating-coupling SPR technology. On a single lithium niobate (LN) substrate the nanostructured SPR sensing areas, interdigital transducer (IDT) for SAW generation and polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microfluidic chambers were fabricated. SAWs, impinging on the microfluidic chamber, generate acoustic streaming inside the fluid, leading to chaotic advection and thus improved fluid mixing, whilst analytes binding detection is made via SPR method based on SPP excitation via gold metallic grating upon azimuthal orientation and phase interrogation. Our device has been fully characterized in order to separate for the very first time the unwanted SAW heating effect with respect to the fluid stirring inside the microchamber that affect the molecules binding dynamics. Avidin/biotin assay and thiol-polyethylene glycol (bPEG-SH) were exploited as model biological interaction and non-fouling layer respectively. Biosensing kinetics time reduction with SAW-enhanced mixing resulted in a ≈ 82% improvement for bPEG-SH adsorption onto gold and ≈ 24% for avidin/biotin binding—≈ 50% and 18% respectively compared to the heating only condition. These results demonstrate that our biochip can significantly reduce the duration of bioreactions that usually require long times (e.g., PEG-based sensing layer, low concentration analyte detection). The sensing architecture here proposed represents a new promising technology satisfying the major biosensing requirements: scalability and high throughput capabilities. The detection system size and biochip dimension could be further reduced and integrated; in addition, the possibility of reducing biological experiment duration via SAW-driven active mixing and developing multiplexing platforms for parallel real-time sensing could be easily combined. In general, the technology reported in this study can be straightforwardly adapted to a great number of biological system and sensing geometry.

Keywords: biosensor, microfluidics, surface acoustic wave, surface plasmon resonance

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5368 Sustainable Refrigerated Transport Engineering

Authors: A. A, F. Belmir, A. El Bouari, Y. Abboud

Abstract:

This article presents a study of the thermal performance of a new solar mobile refrigeration prototype for the preservation of perishable foods. The simulation of the refrigeration cycle and the calculation of the thermal balances made it possible to estimate its consumption and to evaluate the capacity of each photovoltaic component necessary for the production of energy. The study provides a description of the refrigerator construction and operation, including an energy balance analysis of the refrigerator performance under typical loads. The photovoltaic system requirements are also detailed.

Keywords: composite, material, photovoltaic, refrigeration, thermal

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5367 Hybrid Renewable Energy System Development Towards Autonomous Operation: The Deployment Potential in Greece

Authors: Afroditi Zamanidou, Dionysios Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos Manolitsis

Abstract:

A notable amount of electrical energy demand in many countries worldwide is used to cover public energy demand for road, square and other public spaces’ lighting. Renewable energy can contribute in a significant way to the electrical energy demand coverage for public lighting. This paper focuses on the sizing and design of a hybrid energy system (HES) exploiting the solar-wind energy potential to meet the electrical energy needs of lighting roads, squares and other public spaces. Moreover, the proposed HES provides coverage of the electrical energy demand for a Wi-Fi hotspot and a charging hotspot for the end-users. Alongside the sizing of the energy production system of the proposed HES, in order to ensure a reliable supply without interruptions, a storage system is added and sized. Multiple scenarios of energy consumption are assumed and applied in order to optimize the sizing of the energy production system and the energy storage system. A database with meteorological prediction data for 51 areas in Greece is developed in order to assess the possible deployment of the proposed HES. Since there are detailed meteorological prediction data for all 51 areas under investigation, the use of these data is evaluated, comparing them to real meteorological data. The meteorological prediction data are exploited to form three hourly production profiles for each area for every month of the year; minimum, average and maximum energy production. The energy production profiles are combined with the energy consumption scenarios and the sizing results of the energy production system and the energy storage system are extracted and presented for every area. Finally, the economic performance of the proposed HES in terms of Levelized cost of energy is estimated by calculating and assessing construction, operation and maintenance costs.

Keywords: energy production system sizing, Greece’s deployment potential, meteorological prediction data, wind-solar hybrid energy system, levelized cost of energy

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5366 The Impact of Blended Learning on Developing the students' Writing Skills and the Perception of Instructors and Students: Hawassa University in Focus

Authors: Mulu G. Gencha, Gebremedhin Simon, Menna Olango

Abstract:

This study was conducted at Hawassa University (HwU) in the Southern Nation Nationalities Peoples Regional State (SNNPRS) of Ethiopia. The prime concern of this study was to examine the writing performances of experimental and control group students, perception of experimental group students, and subject instructors. The course was blended learning (BL). Blended learning is a hybrid of classroom and on-line learning. Participants were eighty students from the School of Computer Science. Forty students attended the BL delivery involved using Face-to-Face (FTF) and campus-based online instruction. All instructors, fifty, of School of Language and Communication Studies along with 10 FGD members participated in the study. The experimental group went to the computer lab two times a week for four months, March-June, 2012, using the local area network (LAN), and software (MOODLE) writing program. On the other hand, the control group, forty students, took the FTF writing course five times a week for four months in similar academic calendar. The three instruments, the attitude questionnaire, tests and FGD were designed to identify views of students, instructors, and FGD participants on BL. At the end of the study, students’ final course scores were evaluated. Data were analyzed using independent samples t-tests. A statistically, significant difference was found between the FTF and BL (p<0.05). The analysis showed that the BL group was more successful than the conventional group. Besides, both instructors and students had positive attitude towards BL. The final section of the thesis showed the potential benefits and challenges, considering the pedagogical implications for the BL, and recommended possible avenues for further works.

Keywords: blended learning, computer attitudes, computer usefulness, computer liking, computer confidence, computer phobia

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5365 Phonology and Syntax of Article Incorporation in Mauritian Creole: Evidence from Bantou Languages

Authors: Emmanuel Nikiema

Abstract:

This paper examines article incorporation in Mauritian Creole, a French Lexifier Creole which exhibits three forms of article incorporation as illustrated in (1-3). While various analyses of article incorporation have been proposed in the literature, fewer studies have explored the motivation of this widespread phenomenon in Mauritian Creole (MC) as opposed to other French Lexifier Creoles spoken in the Caribbean. For example, Mauritian Creole exhibits 4 times more CV incorporation than Haitian Creole, and 40 times more than Reunion Creole. (1) Consonantal type (C): loraz ‘thunder storm’, lete ‘summer’, zwazo ‘bird’, nide ‘idea’. (2) Syllabic type (CV): lapo ‘skin’, liku ‘neck’, ledo ‘back’, leker ‘heart’, diber ‘butter’. (3) Bi-consonantal (CVC): delo ‘water’, dizef ‘egg’, lizye ‘eye’, dilwil ‘oil’. The goal of this study is twofold: 1) uncover the rules governing the three types of article incorporation in MC, and 2) account for its remarkable occurrence in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole. We have collected a corpus of over 700 cases and organized it into three categories (C; CV and CVC). For example, there are 471 examples of CV incorporation in MC against 112 in Haitian Creole and only 12 in Reunion Creole. Two questions can be raised: 1) what is the motivation and distribution of the three types of incorporation in MC, and 2) how can one account for the high volume of incorporation in MC as opposed to its quasi-absence in Reunion Creole? We suggest that article incorporation in MC is related to the structure of nouns in Bantou languages. While previous authors have largely used population settlement data in the colonies during the Creole formation period to justify their analyses, we propose an account based on the syntactic structure of Bantou nouns. This analysis will shed light on the contribution of African languages to the formation of MC, and on to why MC has exhibited more article incorporation cases than any other French Lexifier Creole.

Keywords: article incorporation, creole languages, description, phonology

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5364 Optimal Tamping for Railway Tracks, Reducing Railway Maintenance Expenditures by the Use of Integer Programming

Authors: Rui Li, Min Wen, Kim Bang Salling

Abstract:

For the modern railways, maintenance is critical for ensuring safety, train punctuality and overall capacity utilization. The cost of railway maintenance in Europe is high, on average between 30,000 – 100,000 Euros per kilometer per year. In order to reduce such maintenance expenditures, this paper presents a mixed 0-1 linear mathematical model designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballast track in the planning horizon of three to four years. The objective function is to minimize the tamping machine actual costs. The approach of the research is using the simple dynamic model for modelling condition-based tamping process and the solution method for finding optimal condition-based tamping schedule. Seven technical and practical aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality recovery on the track quality after tamping operation; (5) Tamping machine operation practices (6) tamping budgets and (7) differentiating the open track from the station sections. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 42.6 km of length is applied for a time period of three and four years in the proposed maintenance model. The generated tamping schedule is reasonable and robust. Based on the result from the Danish railway corridor, the total costs can be reduced significantly (50%) than the previous model which is based on optimizing the number of tamping. The different maintenance strategies have been discussed in the paper. The analysis from the results obtained from the model also shows a longer period of predictive tamping planning has more optimal scheduling of maintenance actions than continuous short term preventive maintenance, namely yearly condition-based planning.

Keywords: integer programming, railway tamping, predictive maintenance model, preventive condition-based maintenance

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5363 Assessing the Benefits of Super Depo Sutorejo as a Model of integration of Waste Pickers in a Sustainable City Waste Management

Authors: Yohanes Kambaru Windi, Loetfia Dwi Rahariyani, Dyah Wijayanti, Eko Rustamaji

Abstract:

Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia, has been struggling for years with waste production and its management. Nearly 11,000 tons of waste are generated daily by domestic, commercial and industrial areas. It is predicted that approximately 1,300 tons of waste overflew the Benowo Landfill daily in 2013 and projected that the landfill operation will be critical in 2015. The Super Depo Sutorejo (SDS) is a pilot project on waste management launched by the government of Surabaya in March 2013. The project is aimed to reduce the amount of waste dumped in landfill by sorting the recyclable and organic waste for composting by employing waste pickers to sort the waste before transported to landfill. This study is intended to assess the capacity of SDS to process and reduce waste and its complementary benefits. It also overviews the benefits of the project to the waste pickers in term of satisfaction to the job. Waste processing data-sheets were used to assess the difference between input and outputs waste. A survey was distributed to 30 waste pickers and interviews were conducted as a further insight on a particular issue. The analysis showed that SDS enable to reduce waste up to 50% before dumped in the final disposal area. The cost-benefits analysis using cost differential calculation revealed the economic benefit is considerable low, but composting may substitute tangible benefits for maintain the city’s parks. Waste pickers are mostly satisfied with their job (i.e. Salary, health coverage, job security), services and facilities available in SDS and enjoyed rewarding social life within the project. It is concluded that SDS is an effective and efficient model for sustainable waste management and reliable to be developed in developing countries. It is a strategic approach to empower and open up working opportunity for the poor urban community and prolong the operation of landfills.

Keywords: cost-benefits, integration, satisfaction, waste management

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5362 Life Cycle Assessment of Mass Timber Structure, Construction Process as System Boundary

Authors: Mahboobeh Hemmati, Tahar Messadi, Hongmei Gu

Abstract:

Today, life cycle assessment (LCA) is a leading method in mitigating the environmental impacts emerging from the building sector. In this paper, LCA is used to quantify the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during the construction phase of the largest mass timber residential structure in the United States, Adohi Hall. This building is a 200,000 square foot 708-bed complex located on the campus of the University of Arkansas. The energy used for buildings’ operation is the most dominant source of emissions in the building industry. Lately, however, the efforts were successful at increasing the efficiency of building operation in terms of emissions. As a result, the attention is now shifted to the embodied carbon, which is more noticeable in the building life cycle. Unfortunately, most of the studies have, however, focused on the manufacturing stage, and only a few have addressed to date the construction process. Specifically, less data is available about environmental impacts associated with the construction of mass timber. This study presents, therefore, an assessment of the environmental impact of the construction processes based on the real and newly built mass timber building mentioned above. The system boundary of this study covers modules A4 and A5 based on building LCA standard EN 15978. Module A4 includes material and equipment transportation. Module A5 covers the construction and installation process. This research evolves through 2 stages: first, to quantify materials and equipment deployed in the building, and second, to determine the embodied carbon associated with running equipment for construction materials, both transported to, and installed on, the site where the edifice is built. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of the building is the primary metric considered in this research. The outcomes of this study bring to the front a better understanding of hotspots in terms of emission during the construction process. Moreover, the comparative analysis of the mass timber construction process with that of a theoretically similar steel building will enable an effective assessment of the environmental efficiency of mass timber.

Keywords: construction process, GWP, LCA, mass timber

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5361 Study on the Effect of Different Media on Green Roof Water Retention

Authors: Chen Zhi-Wei, Hsieh Wei-Fang

Abstract:

Taiwan annual rainfall is global average of 2.5 times, plus city excessive development, green constantly to reduced, instead of is big area of artificial base disc, makes Taiwan rainy season during occurred of storm cannot timely of emissions, led to flood constantly, and rain also cannot was retained again using, led to city hydrological balance suffered damage, and to Regulation city of by brings of negative effect, increased green covered rate became most effective of method, and city land limited, so roof green gradually became a alternative program. Green roofs have become one of the Central and local government policy initiatives for urban development, in foreign countries, such as the United States, and Japan, and Singapore etc. Development of roof greening as an important policy, has become a trend of the times. In recent years, many experts and scholars are also on the roof greening all aspects of research, mostly for green roof for the environmental impact of benefits, such as: carbon reduction, cooling, thermostat, but research on the benefits of green roofs under water cut but it is rare. Therefore, this research literature from green roof in to view and analyze what kind of medium suitable for roof greening and use of green base plate combination simulated green roof structure, via different proportions of the medium with water retention plate and drainage board, experiment with different planting base plate combination of water conservation performance. Research will want to test the effect of roof planting base mix, promotion of relevant departments and agencies in future implementation of green roofs, prompted the development of green roofs, which in the end Taiwan achieve sustainable development of the urban environment help.

Keywords: thin-layer roof greening and planting medium, water efficiency

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5360 Bilateral Simultaneous Acute Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma: A Remarkable Case

Authors: Nita Nurlaila Kadarwaty

Abstract:

Purpose: This study presents a rare case of bilateral Acute Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma (PACG). Method: A case report of a 64-year-old woman with a good outcome Acute PACG in both eyes who underwent phacotrabeculectomy surgery. Result: A 64-year-old woman complained of acute pain in both eyes, accompanied by decreased vision, photophobia, and seeing halos for three weeks. There was no history of trauma, steroid or other systemic drugs used, or intraocular surgery before. Ophthalmologic examination revealed a right eye (RE) visual acuity of 0.1, left eye (LE) 0.2. RE intraocular pressure (IOP) was 12 mmhg and LE: 36.4 mmHg in medication of timolol maleat ED and acetazolamide oral. Both eyes' anterior segments revealed mixed injection, corneal edema, shallow anterior chamber, posterior synechiae, mid-dilatation pupil with negative pupillary reflection, and cloudy lens without intumescent. There was a glaucomatous optic and closed iridocorneal angle on the gonioscopy. Initial treatments included oral acetazolamide and potassium aspartate 250 mg three times a day, timolol maleate ED 0.5% twice a day, and prednisolone acetate ED 1% four times a day. This patient underwent trabeculectomy, phacoemulsification, and implantation of IOL in both eyes. One week after the surgeries, both eyes showed decreased IOP and good visual improvement. Conclusion: Bilateral simultaneous Acute PACG is generally severe and results in a poor outcome. It causes rapidly progressive visual loss and is often irreversible. Phacotrabeculectomy has more benefits compared to only phacoemulsification for the intervention regarding the reduced IOP post-surgical.

Keywords: acute primary angle closure glaucoma, intraocular pressure, phacotrabeculectomy, glaucoma

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5359 Improvement of Fixed Offshore Structures' Boat Landing Performance Using Practicable Design Criteria

Authors: A. Hamadelnil, Z. Razak, E. Matsoom

Abstract:

Boat landings on fixed offshore structure are designed to absorb the impact energy from the boats approaching the platform for crew transfer. As the size and speed of operating boats vary, the design and maintenance of the boat landings become more challenging. Different oil and gas operators adopting different design criteria for the boat landing design in the region of South East Asia. Rubber strip is used to increase the capacity of the boat landing in absorbing bigger impact energy. Recently, it has been reported that all the rubber strips peel off the boat landing frame within one to two years, and replacement is required to avoid puncturing of the boat’s hull by the exposed sharp edges and bolts used to secure the rubber strip. The capacity of the boat landing in absorbing the impact energy is reduced after the failure of the rubber strip and results in failure of the steel members. The replacement of the rubber strip is costly as it requires a diving spread. The objective of this study is to propose the most practicable criteria to be adopted by oil and gas operators in the design of the boat landings in the region of South East Asia to improve the performance of the boat landing and assure safe operation and cheaper maintenance. This study explores the current design and maintenance challenges of boat landing and compares between the criteria adopted by different operators. In addition, this study explains the reasons behind the denting of many of the boat landing. It also evaluates the effect of grout and rubber strip in the capacity of the boat landing and jacket legs and highlight. Boat landing model and analysis using USFOS and SACS software are carried out and presented in this study considering different design criteria. This study proposes the most practicable criteria to be used in designing the boat landing in South East Asia region to save cost and achieve better performance, safe operation and less cost and maintenance.

Keywords: boat landing, grout, plastic hinge, rubber strip

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5358 Using Unilateral Diplomatic Assurances to Evade Provisional Measures' Orders

Authors: William Thomas Worster

Abstract:

This paper will highlight the failure of international adjudication to prevent a state from evading an order of provisional measures by simply issuing a diplomatic assurance to the court. This practice changes the positions of the litigants as equals before a court, prevents the court from inquiring into the reliability of the political pledge as it would with assurances from a state to an individual, and diminishes the court’s ability to control its own proceedings in the face of concerns over sovereignty. Both the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and International Court of Justice (ICJ) will entertain these kinds of unilateral pledges, but they consider them differently when the declaration is made between states or between a state and an individual, and when made directly to the court. In short, diplomatic assurances issued between states or to individuals are usually considered not to be legally binding and are essentially questions of fact, but unilateral assurances issued directly to an international court are questions of law, and usually legally binding. At the same time, orders for provisional measures are now understood also to be legally binding, yet international courts will sometimes permit a state to substitute an assurance in place of an order for provisional measures. This emerging practice has brought the nature of a state as a sovereign capable of creating legal obligations into the forum of adjudication where the parties should have equality of arms and permitted states to create legal obligations that escape inquiry into the reliability of the outcome. While most recent practice has occurred at the ICJ in state-to-state litigation, there is some practice potentially extending the practice to human rights courts. Especially where the litigants are factually unequal – a state and an individual – this practice is problematic since states could more easily overcome factual failings in their pledges and evade the control of the court. Consider, for example, the potential for evading non-refoulement obligations by extending the current diplomatic assurances practice from the state-to-state context to the state-to-court context. The dual nature of assurances, as both legal and factual instruments, should be considered as addressed to distinct questions, each with its own considerations, and that we need to be more demanding about their precise legal and factual effects.

Keywords: unilateral, diplomacy, assurances, undertakings, provisional measures, interim measures

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5357 A Markov Model for the Elderly Disability Transition and Related Factors in China

Authors: Huimin Liu, Li Xiang, Yue Liu, Jing Wang

Abstract:

Background: As one of typical case for the developing countries who are stepping into the aging times globally, more and more older people in China might face the problem of which they could not maintain normal life due to the functional disability. While the government take efforts to build long-term care system and further carry out related policies for the core concept, there is still lack of strong evidence to evaluating the profile of disability states in the elderly population and its transition rate. It has been proved that disability is a dynamic condition of the person rather than irreversible so it means possible to intervene timely on them who might be in a risk of severe disability. Objective: The aim of this study was to depict the picture of the disability transferring status of the older people in China, and then find out individual characteristics that change the state of disability to provide theory basis for disability prevention and early intervention among elderly people. Methods: Data for this study came from the 2011 baseline survey and the 2013 follow-up survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Normal ADL function, 1~2 ADLs disability,3 or above ADLs disability and death were defined from state 1 to state 4. Multi-state Markov model was applied and the four-state homogeneous model with discrete states and discrete times from two visits follow-up data was constructed to explore factors for various progressive stages. We modeled the effect of explanatory variables on the rates of transition by using a proportional intensities model with covariate, such as gender. Result: In the total sample, state 2 constituent ratio is nearly about 17.0%, while state 3 proportion is blow the former, accounting for 8.5%. Moreover, ADL disability statistics difference is not obvious between two years. About half of the state 2 in 2011 improved to become normal in 2013 even though they get elder. However, state 3 transferred into the proportion of death increased obviously, closed to the proportion back to state 2 or normal functions. From the estimated intensities, we see the older people are eleven times as likely to develop at 1~2 ADLs disability than dying. After disability onset (state 2), progression to state 3 is 30% more likely than recovery. Once in state 3, a mean of 0.76 years is spent before death or recovery. In this model, a typical person in state 2 has a probability of 0.5 of disability-free one year from now while the moderate disabled or above has a probability of 0.14 being dead. Conclusion: On the long-term care cost considerations, preventive programs for delay the disability progression of the elderly could be adopted based on the current disabled state and main factors of each stage. And in general terms, those focusing elderly individuals who are moderate or above disabled should go first.

Keywords: Markov model, elderly people, disability, transition intensity

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