Search results for: real estate price prediction

Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal, Zobia Sarwar, Salah-ud-Din

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Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) belongs to the genus Tospoviruses (family Bunyaviridae). It is one of the most devastating pathogens of tomato (Solanum Lycopersicum) and heavily damages the crop yield each year around the globe. In this study, we retrieved 329 mature miRNA sequences from two microRNA databases (miRBase and miRSoldb) and checked the putative target sites in the downloaded-genome sequence of TSWV. A consensus of three miRNA target prediction tools (RNA22, miRanda and psRNATarget) was used to screen the false-positive microRNAs targeting sites in the TSWV genome. These tools calculated different target sites by calculating minimum free energy (mfe), site-complementarity, minimum folding energy and other microRNA-mRNA binding factors. R language was used to plot the predicted target-site data. All the genes having possible target sites for different miRNAs were screened by building a consensus table. Out of these 329 mature miRNAs predicted by three algorithms, only eight miRNAs met all the criteria/threshold specifications. MC-Fold and MC-Sym were used to predict three-dimensional structures of miRNAs and further analyzed in USCF chimera to visualize the structural and conformational changes before and after microRNA-mRNA interactions. The results of the current study show that the predicted eight miRNAs could further be evaluated by in vitro experiments to develop TSWV-resistant transgenic tomato plants in the future.

Keywords: tomato spotted wild virus (TSWV), Solanum lycopersicum, plant virus, miRNAs, microRNA target prediction, mRNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Saeed Mahjoub Moghadas, Farhad Asadi, Shahed Torkamandi, Hassan Moradi, Mahmood Purgamshidian

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In this paper, we present real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous DS-based controllers and also based on dynamical systems (DS) method. In this approach, we can modulate the original dynamics of the controller and it allows us to determine safety margin and different types of DS to increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle and especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated in simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as limit cycles, and unstable DS on this algorithm and also the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, we describe how the avoidance trajectories can be verified through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: limit cycles, nonlinear dynamical system, real time obstacle avoidance, DS-based controllers

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Evren Aysev Denec

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As an urban settlement dating as early as 8000 years and the capital for Byzantine and Ottoman empires; İstanbul has been a significant global city throughout history. The most drastic changes in the macro form of Istanbul have taken place in the last seven decades; starting from 1950’s with rapid industrialization and population growth; pacing up after the 1980’s with the efforts of integration to the global capitalist system; reaching to a climax in the 2000’s with the adaptation of a neoliberal urban regime. Today, the rate of urbanization together with land speculation and real estate investment has been growing enormously. Every inch of urban land is conceptualized as a commodity to be capitalized. This neoliberal mindset has many controversial implementations, from the privatization of public land to the urban transformation of historic neighbourhoods and consumption of natural resources. The planning decisions concerning the city have been mainly top down initiations; conceptualising historical, cultural and natural heritage as commodities to be capitalised and consumed in favour of creating rent value. One of the most crucial implementations of this neoliberal urban regime is the project of establishing a ‘new city’ around northern Istanbul; together with a number of large-scale infrastructural projects such as the Third Bosporus Bridge; a new highway system, a Third Airport Project and a secondary Bosporus project called the ‘Canal Istanbul’. Urbanizing northern Istanbul is highly controversial as this area consists of major natural resources of the city; being the northern forests, water supplies and wildlife; which are bound to be destroyed to a great extent following the implementations. The construction of the third bridge and the third airport has begun in 2013, despite environmental objections and protests. Over five hundred thousand trees are planned be cut for solely the construction of the bridge and the Northern Marmara Motorway. Yet the real damage will be the urbanization of the forest area; irreversibly corrupting the natural resources and attracting millions of additional population towards Istanbul. Furthermore, these projects lack an integrated planning scope as the plans prepared for Istanbul are constantly subjected to alterations forced by the central government. Urban interventions mentioned above are executed despite the rulings of Istanbul Environmental plan, due to top down planning decisions. Instead of an integrated action plan that prepares for the future of the city, Istanbul is governed by partial plans and projects that are issued by a profit based agenda; supported by legal alterations and laws issued by the central government. This paper aims to discuss the ongoing implementations with regards to northern Istanbul; claiming that they are not merely infrastructural interventions but parts of a greater neoliberal urbanization strategy. In the course of the study, firstly a brief account on the northern forests of Istanbul will be presented. Then, the projects will be discussed in detail, addressing how the current planning schemes deal with the natural heritage of the city. Lastly, concluding remarks on how the implementations could affect the future of Istanbul will be presented.

Keywords: Istanbul, urban design, urban planning, natural resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Kay Thinzar Phu, Lwin Lwin Oo

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In an intelligent transport system and advanced driver assistance system, the developing of real-time traffic sign detection and recognition (TSDR) system plays an important part in recent research field. There are many challenges for developing real-time TSDR system due to motion artifacts, variable lighting and weather conditions and situations of traffic signs. Researchers have already proposed various methods to minimize the challenges problem. The aim of the proposed research is to develop an efficient and effective TSDR in real time. This system proposes an adaptive thresholding method based on RGB color for traffic signs detection and new features for traffic signs recognition. In this system, the RGB color thresholding is used to detect the blue and yellow color traffic signs regions. The system performs the shape identify to decide whether the output candidate region is traffic sign or not. Lastly, new features such as termination points, bifurcation points, and 90’ angles are extracted from validated image. This system uses Myanmar Traffic Sign dataset.

Keywords: adaptive thresholding based on RGB color, blue color detection, feature extraction, yellow color detection

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Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

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Today, with the increase in quantity and quality and variety of crimes, the discussion of crime prevention has faced a serious challenge that human resources alone and with traditional methods will not be effective. One of the developments in the modern world is the presence of artificial intelligence in various fields, including criminal law. In fact, the use of artificial intelligence in criminal investigations and fighting crime is a necessity in today's world. The use of artificial intelligence is far beyond and even separate from other technologies in the struggle against crime. Second, its application in criminal science is different from the discussion of prevention and it comes to the prediction of crime. Crime prevention in terms of the three factors of the offender, the offender and the victim, following a change in the conditions of the three factors, based on the perception of the criminal being wise, and therefore increasing the cost and risk of crime for him in order to desist from delinquency or to make the victim aware of self-care and possibility of exposing him to danger or making it difficult to commit crimes. While the presence of artificial intelligence in the field of combating crime and social damage and dangers, like an all-seeing eye, regardless of time and place, it sees the future and predicts the occurrence of a possible crime, thus prevent the occurrence of crimes. The purpose of this article is to collect and analyze the studies conducted on the use of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing crime. How capable is this technology in predicting crime and preventing it? The results have shown that the artificial intelligence technologies in use are capable of predicting and preventing crime and can find patterns in the data set. find large ones in a much more efficient way than humans. In crime prediction and prevention, the term artificial intelligence can be used to refer to the increasing use of technologies that apply algorithms to large sets of data to assist or replace police. The use of artificial intelligence in our debate is in predicting and preventing crime, including predicting the time and place of future criminal activities, effective identification of patterns and accurate prediction of future behavior through data mining, machine learning and deep learning, and data analysis, and also the use of neural networks. Because the knowledge of criminologists can provide insight into risk factors for criminal behavior, among other issues, computer scientists can match this knowledge with the datasets that artificial intelligence uses to inform them.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, criminology, crime, prevention, prediction

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Authors: Ayşe Dilek Maden

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For a given a simple connected graph, we present some new bounds via a new approach for a special topological index given by the sum of the real number power of the non-zero normalized Laplacian eigenvalues. To use this approach presents an advantage not only to derive old and new bounds on this topic but also gives an idea how some previous results in similar area can be developed.

Keywords: degree Kirchhoff index, normalized Laplacian eigenvalue, spanning tree, simple connected graph

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Ahiduzzaman, Amit Kumar

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Alberta’s mining sector consumed 871.3 PJ in 2012, which is 67.1% of the energy consumed in the industry sector and about 40% of all the energy consumed in the province of Alberta. Natural gas, petroleum products, and electricity supplied 55.9%, 20.8%, and 7.7%, respectively, of the total energy use in this sector. Oil sands mining and upgrading to crude oil make up most of the mining energy sector activities in Alberta. Crude oil is produced from the oil sands either by in situ methods or by the mining and extraction of bitumen from oil sands ore. In this research, the factors affecting oil sands production have been assessed and a framework has been developed for market penetration of new efficient technologies in this sector. Oil sands production amount is a complex function of many different factors, broadly categorized into technical, economic, political, and global clusters. The results of developed and implemented statistical analysis in this research show that the importance of key factors affecting on oil sands production in Alberta is ranked as: Global energy consumption (94% consistency), Global crude oil price (86% consistency), and Crude oil export (80% consistency). A framework for modeling oil sands energy technologies’ market penetration (OSETMP) has been developed to cover related technical, economic and environmental factors in this sector. It has been assumed that the impact of political and social constraints is reflected in the model by changes of global oil price or crude oil price in Canada. The market share of novel in situ mining technologies with low energy and water use are assessed and calculated in the market penetration framework include: 1) Partial upgrading, 2) Liquid addition to steam to enhance recovery (LASER), 3) Solvent-assisted process (SAP), also called solvent-cyclic steam-assisted gravity drainage (SC-SAGD), 4) Cyclic solvent, 5) Heated solvent, 6) Wedge well, 7) Enhanced modified steam and Gas push (emsagp), 8) Electro-thermal dynamic stripping process (ET-DSP), 9) Harris electro-magnetic heating applications (EMHA), 10) Paraffin froth separation. The results of the study will show the penetration profile of these technologies over a long term planning horizon.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, diffusion models, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

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In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, water temperature, and conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: dissolved oxygen, water quality, predication DO, support vector machine

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Authors: S. S. Kenny Lee, C. C. Kong, S. K. Ting

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Teaching engineering lab provides opportunity for students to practice theories learned through physical experiment in the laboratory. However, building laboratories to accommodate increased number of students are expensive, making it impossible for an educational institution to afford the high expenses. In this paper, we develop a low cost and remote platform to aid teaching undergraduate students. The platform is constructed where the real experiment setting up in laboratory can be reconfigure and accessed remotely, the aim is to increase student’s desire to learn at which they can interact with the physical experiment using network enabled devices at anywhere in the campus. The platform is constructed with Raspberry Pi as a main control board that provides communication between computer interfaces to the actual experiment preset in the laboratory. The interface allows real-time remote viewing and triggering the physical experiment in the laboratory and also provides instructions and learning guide about the experimental.

Keywords: engineering lab, low cost, network, remote platform, reconfigure, real-time

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Authors: Helena Susana Afonso Alves, Natália Maria Rafael Canadas, Ana Maria Rodrigues

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We examined the impact of governance rules on information asymmetry, using the turnover ratio and the bid-ask spread as proxies for the information asymmetry. We used a SEM model and analyzed the indirect relations through the voluntary disclosure of information and the organizational performance. We built a voluntary disclosure index based on the information firms provided in their annual reports and divided the governance characteristics in two constructs: directors’ and supervisors’ structures and ownership structure. We concluded that the ownership structure exerts a direct influence on share price and share liquidity, Otherwise, the directors’ and supervisors’ structures exert an indirect influence, through the organizational performance and the voluntary disclosure of information. The results also show that for firms with high levels of disclosure the bid-ask spread is lower. However, in firms with a high ownership concentration investors tend to increase the bid-ask spreads and trade less, which, in this case, reduces the liquidity of the stock. The failure to find the relationship between voluntary disclosure of information and the turnover ratio shows us that the liquidity of shares is more related to the greater or lesser concentration of shareholders, with the performance of their companies than with the access to information. Moreover, it is clear that the role that information disclosure plays is mainly at the level of price formation.

Keywords: corporate governance, information asymmetry, voluntary disclosure, structural equation modelling, SEM

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Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Pavak Vyas, Hiral Vyas

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Spin-offs commonly known as demergers in India, represents dismantling of conglomerates which is a common phenomenon in financial markets across the world. Demergers are carried out with different motives. A demerger generally refers to a corporate restructuring where, a large company divests its stake in in its subsidiary and distributes the shares of the subsidiary - demerged entity to the existing shareholders without any consideration. Demergers in Indian companies are over a decade old phenomena, with many companies opting for the same. This study examines the demerger regulations in Indian capital markets and the announcement period price reaction of demergers during year 2010-2015. We study total 97 demerger announcements by companies listed in India and try to establish that demergers results into abnormal returns for the shareholders of the parent company. Using event study methodology we have analyzed the security price performance of the announcement day effect 10 days prior to announcement to 10 days post demerger announcement. We find significant out-performance of the security over the benchmark index post demerger announcements. The cumulative average abnormal returns range from 3.71% on the day of announcement of a private demerger to 2.08% following 10 days surrounding the announcement, and cumulative average abnormal returns range from 5.67% on the day of announcement of a public demerger to 4.15% following10 days surrounding the announcement.

Keywords: demergers, event study, spin offs, stock returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Shakhawan K. Mawlood, Catriona Pickard, Benjamin Pickard

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In summer 2015 the remains of 800 children are among 1,967 bodies were exhumed by archaeologists at St Peter's Burial Ground in Blackburn, Lancashire. One hundred samples from these 19th century ancient bones were selected for DNA analysis. These comprised samples biased for those which prior osteological evidence indicated a potential for microbial infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (causing tuberculosis, TB) or Treponema pallidum (causing Syphilis) species, as well a random selection of other bones for which visual inspection suggested good preservation (and, therefore, likely DNA retrieval).They were subject to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays aimed at detecting traces of DNA from infecting mycobacteria, with the purpose both of confirming the palaeopathological diagnosis of tuberculosis and determining in individual cases whether disease and death was due to M. tuberculosis or other reasons. Our secondary goal was to determine sex determination and age prediction. The results demonstrated that extraction of vast majority ancient bones DNA samples succeeded.

Keywords: ancient bone, DNA, tuberculosis, age prediction

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Authors: S. Naveen, V. Sivasubramanian

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A modeling theory is proposed to consider the vaporization of LNG during its contact with water following its release from an underwater source. The spillage of LNG underwater can lead to a decrease in the surface temperature of water and subsequent freezing. This can in turn affect the heat flux distribution from the released LNG onto the water surrounding it. The available models predict the rate of vaporization considering the surface of contact as a solid wall, and considering the entire phenomena as a solid-liquid operation. This assumption greatly under-predicted the overall heat transfer on LNG water interface. The vaporization flux would first decrease during the film boiling, followed by an increase during the transition boiling and a steady decrease during the nucleate boiling. A superheat theory is introduced to enhance the accuracy in the prediction of the heat transfer between LNG and water. The work suggests that considering the superheat theory can greatly enhance the prediction of LNG vaporization on underwater releases and also help improve the study of overall thermodynamics.

Keywords: evaporation rate, heat transfer, LNG vaporization, underwater LNG release

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Authors: Tayeb Chihi, Messaoud Fatmi

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We present calculations of the structural, elastic and electronic properties of nonferrous Ti, Zr, and Hf pure metals in both parent and martensite phases in bcc and hcp structures respectively. They are based on the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) within the density functional theory (DFT). The shear modulus, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio for Ti, Zr, and Hf metals have were calculated and compared with the corresponding experimental values. Using elastic constants obtained from calculations GGA, the bulk modulus along the crystallographic axes of single crystals was calculated. This is in good agreement with experiment for Ti and Zr, whereas the hcp structure for Hf is a prediction. At zero temperature and zero pressure, the bcc crystal structure is found to be mechanically unstable for Ti, Zr, and Hf. In our calculations the hcp structures is correctly found to be stable at the equilibrium volume. In the electronic density of states (DOS), the smaller n(EF) is, the more stable the compound is. Therefore, in agreement with the results obtained from the total energy minimum.

Keywords: Ti, Zr, Hf, pure metals, transformation, energy

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Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and time-consuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil, geotechnical engineering

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Authors: Sara Hasani

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This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

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Authors: Svetlana Bialkova, Marnix van Gisbergen

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Advanced Virtual Reality (VR) technologies offer compelling multisensory and interactive experiences applicable in various fields from education to entertainment. However, serious VR applications within the financial sector are scarce, and managing ‘real’ business services with(in) VR is a challenge inviting further investigation. The current research addresses this challenge, by exploring the key parameters influencing the VR business power and the development of appropriate VR applications in real financial business. We conducted profound investigation of both B2B and B2C needs, and how these could be met. In three studies, we have approached experts from leading international banks (finance to computer specialists), and their (potential) customers. Study 1 included focus group discussions with experts. First, participants could experience different VR devices such as Samsung Gear VR, then a structured discussion was held. The outcomes are analyzed and summarized in a portfolio. Study 2 further used the portfolio analyzer to profile the management of real business services with(in) VR. Again experts participated, where first being introduced with Samsung Gear, then experiencing it and being interviewed. Based on the outcomes, a survey was developed to interview (potential) customers and test ideas created (Study 3). The results suggest that developing proper system architectures to connect people and to connect devices is crucial for building up powerful business with(in) VR. From one side, connecting devices, e.g., pairing mobile Head Mounted Displays for VR with smart-phones and/or wearable technologies would be appropriate way “to have” customers anywhere, anytime with a brand and/or business. Developing VR Apps, providing detailed real time visualization of performance and infrastructure types could enable 3D VR navigation, 3D contents viewing, but also being opportunity for connecting people in collaborative platforms. The outcomes of the current research are summarized in a model which could be applied to unlock the real business power of VR.

Keywords: business power, B2B, B2C, VR applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Matevž Breška, Iztok Peruš, Vlado Stankovski

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Systematic overview of existing Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) has been published by Douglas. The number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration (PGA) the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database, peak ground acceleration

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Hadi Molaei, Yasavoli Davoud, Keshavarz, Mozhde Poordana

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The present study aimed was to prediction the academic performance based on academic motivation, self-efficacy and Resiliency in the students. The present study was descriptive and correlational. Population of the study consisted of all students in Arak schools in year 1393-94. For this purpose, the number of 304 schools students in Arak was selected using multi-stage cluster sampling. They all questionnaires, self-efficacy, Resiliency and academic motivation Questionnaire completed. Data were analyzed using Pearson correlation and multiple regressions. Pearson correlation showed academic motivation, self-efficacy, and Resiliency with academic performance had a positive and significant relationship. In addition, multiple regression analysis showed that the academic motivation, self-efficacy and Resiliency were predicted academic performance. Based on the findings could be conclude that in order to increase the academic performance and further progress of students must provide the ground to strengthen academic motivation, self-efficacy and Resiliency act on them.

Keywords: academic motivation, self-efficacy, resiliency, academic performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: K. Parandhama Gowd

Abstract:

The aim of this research paper is to conceptualize, discuss, analyze and propose alternate design methodologies for futuristic Black Box for flight safety. The proposal also includes global networking concepts for real time surveillance and monitoring of flight performance parameters including GPS parameters. It is expected that this proposal will serve as a failsafe real time diagnostic tool for accident investigation and location of debris in real time. In this paper, an attempt is made to improve the existing methods of flight data recording techniques and improve upon design considerations for futuristic FDR to overcome the trauma of not able to locate the block box. Since modern day communications and information technologies with large bandwidth are available coupled with faster computer processing techniques, the attempt made in this paper to develop a failsafe recording technique is feasible. Further data fusion/data warehousing technologies are available for exploitation.

Keywords: flight data recorder (FDR), black box, diagnostic tool, global networking, cockpit voice and data recorder (CVDR), air traffic control (ATC), air traffic, telemetry, tracking and control centers ATTTCC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: E. Dahlen

Abstract:

Inflation can be calculated from either the prices of consumer products or from salaries. This paper presents a logical exercise that shows it is easier to calculate inflation from salaries than from consumer products. While the prices of consumer products may change due to technological advancement, such as automation, which must be corrected for, salaries do not. If technological advancements are not accounted for within calculations based on consumer product prices, inflation can be confused with real wage changes, since both inflation and real wage changes affect the prices of consumer products. The method employed in this paper is a logical exercise. Logical arguments are presented that suggest the existence of many different feasible ways by which inflation can be determined. Then a short mathematical exercise will be presented which shows that one of these methods –using salaries – contains the fewest number of unknown parameters, and hence, is the preferred method, since the risk of mistakes is lower. From the results, it can be concluded that salaries, rather than consumer products, should be used to calculate inflation.

Keywords: inflation, logic, math, real wages

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Ajay Kumar Rana

Abstract:

Predicting human behaviour, discerning monozygotic twins or left over remnant tissues/fluids of a single human source remains a big challenge in forensic science. Recent advances in the field of DNA methylations which are broadly chemical hallmarks in response to environmental factors can certainly help to identify and discriminate various single-source DNA samples collected from the crime scenes. In this review, cytosine methylation of DNA has been methodologically discussed with its broad applications in many challenging forensic issues like body fluid identification, race/ethnicity identification, monozygotic twins dilemma, addiction or behavioural prediction, age prediction, or even authenticity of the human DNA. With the advent of next-generation sequencing techniques, blooming of DNA methylation datasets and together with standard molecular protocols, the prospect of investigating and solving the above issues and extracting the exact nature of the truth for reconstructing the crime scene events would be undoubtedly helpful in defending and solving the critical crime cases.

Keywords: DNA methylation, differentially methylated regions, human identification, forensics

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: A. Bayle, F. Plouraboué

Abstract:

Water Distribution Network (WDN) still suffers from a lack of knowledge about fast pressure transient events prediction, although the latter may considerably impact their durability. Accidental or planned operating activities indeed give rise to complex pressure interactions and may drastically modified the local pressure value generating leaks and, in rare cases, pipe’s break. In this context, a numerical predictive analysis is conducted to prevent such event and optimize network management. A couple of Python/FORTRAN 90, home-made software, has been developed using Method Of Characteristic (MOC) solving for water-hammer equations. The solver is validated by direct comparison with theoretical and experimental measurement in simple configurations whilst afterward extended to network analysis. The algorithm's most costly steps are designed for parallel computation. A various set of boundary conditions and energetic losses models are considered for the network simulations. The results are analyzed in both real and frequencies domain and provide crucial information on the pressure distribution behavior within the network.

Keywords: energetic losses models, method of characteristic, numerical predictive analysis, water distribution network, water hammer

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Pooria Norouzi, Nicholas Tsang, Adam van der Goes, Joseph Yu, Douglas Zheng, Sirine Maleej

Abstract:

In this study, virtual meters will be designed and used for energy balance measurements of an air handling unit (AHU). The method aims to replace traditional physical sensors in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with simulated virtual meters. Due to the inability to manage and monitor these systems, many HVAC systems have a high level of inefficiency and energy wastage. Virtual meters are implemented and applied in an actual HVAC system, and the result confirms the practicality of mathematical sensors for alternative energy measurement. While most residential buildings and offices are commonly not equipped with advanced sensors, adding, exploiting, and monitoring sensors and measurement devices in the existing systems can cost thousands of dollars. The first purpose of this study is to provide an energy consumption rate based on available sensors and without any physical energy meters. It proves the performance of virtual meters in HVAC systems as reliable measurement devices. To demonstrate this concept, mathematical models are created for AHU-07, located in building NE01 of the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT) Burnaby campus. The models will be created and integrated with the system’s historical data and physical spot measurements. The actual measurements will be investigated to prove the models' accuracy. Based on preliminary analysis, the resulting mathematical models are successful in plotting energy consumption patterns, and it is concluded confidently that the results of the virtual meter will be close to the results that physical meters could achieve. In the second part of this study, the use of virtual meters is further assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) in the HVAC systems of building to improve energy management and efficiency. By the data mining approach, virtual meters’ data is recorded as historical data, and HVAC system energy consumption prediction is also implemented in order to harness great energy savings and manage the demand and supply chain effectively. Energy prediction can lead to energy-saving strategies and considerations that can open a window in predictive control in order to reach lower energy consumption. To solve these challenges, the energy prediction could optimize the HVAC system and automates energy consumption to capture savings. This study also investigates AI solutions possibility for autonomous HVAC efficiency that will allow quick and efficient response to energy consumption and cost spikes in the energy market.

Keywords: virtual meters, HVAC, artificial intelligence, energy consumption prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Fadime Eroglu

Abstract:

Acanthamoeba genus belongs to kingdom protozoa, and it is known as free-living amoebae. Acanthamoeba genus has been isolated from human bodies, swimming pools, bottled mineral water, contact lens solutions, dust, and soil. The members of the genus Acanthamoeba causes Acanthamoeba Keratitis which is a painful sight-threatening disease of the eyes. In recent years, the prevalence of Acanthamoeba keratitis has been high rate reported. The eight different Acanthamoeba species are known to be effective in Acanthamoeba keratitis. These species are Acanthamoeba castellanii, Acanthamoeba polyphaga, Acanthamoeba griffini, Acanthamoeba hatchetti, Acanthamoeba culbertsoni and Acanhtamoeba rhysodes. The conventional diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis has relied on cytological preparations and growth of Acanthamoeba in culture. However molecular methods such as real-time PCR has been found to be more sensitive. The real-time PCR has now emerged as an effective method for more rapid testing for the diagnosis of infectious disease in decade. Therefore, a real-time PCR assay for the detection of Acanthamoeba keratitis and Acanthamoeba species have been developed in this study. The 18S rRNA sequences from Acanthamoeba species were obtained from National Center for Biotechnology Information and sequences were aligned with MEGA 6 programme. Primers and probe were designed using Custom Primers-OligoPerfectTMDesigner (ThermoFisherScientific, Waltham, MA, USA). They were also assayed for hairpin formation and degree of primer-dimer formation with Multiple Primer Analyzer ( ThermoFisherScientific, Watham, MA, USA). The eight different ATCC Acanthamoeba species were obtained, and DNA was extracted using the Qiagen Mini DNA extraction kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The DNA of Acanthamoeba species were analyzed using newly designed primer and probe set in real-time PCR assay. The early definitive laboratory diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis and the rapid initiation of suitable therapy is necessary for clinical prognosis. The results of the study have been showed that new primer and probes could be used for detection and distinguish for Acanthamoeba species. These new developing methods are helpful for diagnosis of Acanthamoeba Keratitis.

Keywords: Acathamoeba Keratitis, Acanthamoeba species, fast diagnosis, Real-Time PCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 119