Search results for: probability of failure

Authors: Ákos Cserny

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The unequivocal increase of the area of operation of the executive power can happen with the appearance of new areas to be influenced and its integration in the power, or at the expense of the scopes of other organs with public authority. The extension of the executive can only be accepted within the framework of the rule of law if parallel with this process we get constitutional guarantees that the exercise of power is kept within constitutional framework. Failure to do so, however, may result in the lack, deficit of democracy and democratic sense, and may cause an overwhelming dominance of the executive power. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present executive power and responsibility in the context of different dimensions.

Keywords: confidence, constitution, executive power, liabiliy, parliamentarism

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Authors: Leilani Forby, Farid Pazhoohi, Alan Kingstone

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There is abundant research on the nature and content of mind wandering (MW) in neurotypical (NT) adults, however, there is little to no research in these areas on autistic individuals. The objective of the current study was to uncover any differences between low and high autistic trait individuals in their MW. In particular, we examined their attitudes toward, and the themes and temporal dimensions (past, present, future) of, their MW episodes. For our online study, we recruited 518 students (394 women and 124 men), between the ages of 18 and 51 years (M = 20.93, SD = 3.40) from the undergraduate Human Subject Pool at the University of British Columbia. Participants completed the Short Imaginal Processes Inventory (SIPI), which includes the three subscales Positive-Constructive Daydreaming (SIPI-PC), Guilt and Fear of Failure Daydreaming (SIPI-GFF), and Poor Attentional Control (SIPI-PAC). Participants also completed the Past (IPI-past) and Present (IPI-present) subscales of the Imaginal Processes Inventory (IPI), the Deliberate (MW-D) and Spontaneous (MW-S) Mind Wandering scales, the Short Form Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4), and the 10-item Autism Quotient (AQ-10). Results showed that overall, participant AQ-10 scores were significantly correlated with MW-S, SIPI-GFF, and PSS-4 scores, such that as the number of autistic traits endorsed by participants increased, so did their reports of spontaneous mind wandering, guilt and fear of failure themed day dreaming, and stress levels. This same pattern held for female participants, however, AQ-10 scores were positively correlated with only PSS-4 scores for males. These results suggest that compared to males with autistic traits, MW in females with autistic traits is more similar to individuals with low autistic traits in terms of content and intentionality. Results are discussed in terms of clinical implications, their limitations, and suggested directions for future research.

Keywords: autism, deliberate, mind wandering, spontaneous, perceived stress

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Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

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Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Majid Dashtgerd, Eisa Moradi Afrapoli

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The “Yemen War” is one of the longest wars of the recent century, which was launched on 26 March 2015 after the Saudi Arabia-led alliance's military intervention in Yemen. The war began with the aim of fighting Yemen's Houthis and preventing Iranian influence in the region, and Saudi leaders expected a quick victory; However, the “Yemen War” lasted about seven years and is still going on (May 2022), and Saudi Arabia has not been able to achieve its strategic objectives. This study seeks to examine some of the most important reasons for Saudi Arabia's protracted war and failure in Yemen.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, yemen war, houthis, Iran

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Authors: Anna Dolinayova, Jozef Danis, Juraj Camaj

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The report deals with comparison of traffic accidents in Slovak republic in road and rail transport since year 2009 until 2014, with evaluation of external costs and consequently with the possibilities of their internalization. The results of road traffic accidents analysis are realized in line with after-effects they have caused; in line with main cause, place of origin (within or out of town) and in accordance to age of people they were killed or hard, eventually easy injured in traffic accidents. Evaluation of individual after-effects is carried in terms of probability of traffic accidents occurrence.

Keywords: external costs, traffic accident, rail transport, road transport

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Authors: Esmeralda Hysenbelliu

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The aim of this paper is to present the QoE (Quality of Experience) IPTV SDN-based media streaming server enhanced architecture for configuring, controlling, management and provisioning the improved delivery of IPTV service application with low cost, low bandwidth, and high security. Furthermore, it is given a virtual QoE IPTV SDN-based topology to provide an improved IPTV service based on QoE Control and Management of multimedia services functionalities. Inside OpenFlow SDN Controller there are enabled in high flexibility and efficiency Service Load-Balancing Systems; based on the Loading-Balance module and based on GeoIP Service. This two Load-balancing system improve IPTV end-users Quality of Experience (QoE) with optimal management of resources greatly. Through the key functionalities of OpenFlow SDN controller, this approach produced several important features, opportunities for overcoming the critical QoE metrics for IPTV Service like achieving incredible Fast Zapping time (Channel Switching time) < 0.1 seconds. This approach enabled Easy and Powerful Transcoding system via FFMPEG encoder. It has the ability to customize streaming dimensions bitrates, latency management and maximum transfer rates ensuring delivering of IPTV streaming services (Audio and Video) in high flexibility, low bandwidth and required performance. This QoE IPTV SDN-based media streaming architecture unlike other architectures provides the possibility of Channel Exchanging between several IPTV service providers all over the word. This new functionality brings many benefits as increasing the number of TV channels received by end –users with low cost, decreasing stream failure time (Channel Failure time < 0.1 seconds) and improving the quality of streaming services.

Keywords: improved quality of experience (QoE), OpenFlow SDN controller, IPTV service application, softwarization

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Authors: Stefano Andrea Denes

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The use of dental implants to rehabilitate edentulous patients has become a well-established and effective treatment option; however, despite its high success rate, this treatment is not free of complications. The fracture of implant body is a rare cause of failure but when it does occur it can present technical challenges. In this article, we report the complete removal of a fractured osseointegrated implant using electrosurgery and ultrasonic instrumentation. The postoperative course was uneventful, no bleeding, infection, or hematoma formation was observed.

Keywords: dental implant, oral surgery, electrosurgery, piezosurgery

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Authors: S. Maniruzzaman, N. Ramanujam, Qazi Akhter Rasool, Swapan Kumar Biswas, P. Prasad, Chandrakanta Ojha

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Landslide is one of the major natural disasters in South Asian countries. Applying 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging estimation of geometry, thickness, and depth of failure zone of the landslide can be made. Landslide is a pertinent problem in Nilgris plateau next to Himalaya. Nilgris range consists of hard Archean metamorphic rocks. Intense weathering prevailed during the Pre-Cambrian time had deformed the rocks up to 45m depth. The landslides are dominant in the southern and eastern part of plateau of is comparatively smaller than the northern drainage basins, as it has low density of drainage; coarse texture permitted the more of infiltration of rainwater, whereas in the northern part of the plateau entombed with high density of drainage pattern and fine texture with less infiltration than run off, and low to the susceptible to landslide. To get comprehensive information about the landslide zone 2D Electrical Resistivity Tomographic imaging study with CRM 500 Resistivity meter are used in Coonoor– Mettupalyam sector of Nilgiris plateau. To calculate Factor of Safety the infinite slope model of Brunsden and Prior is used. Factor of Safety can be expressed (FS) as the ratio of resisting forces to disturbing forces. If FS < 1 disturbing forces are larger than resisting forces and failure may occur. The geotechnical parameters of soil samples are calculated on the basis upon the apparent resistivity values for litho units of measured from 2D ERT image of the landslide zone. Relationship between friction angles for various soil properties is established by simple regression analysis from apparent resistivity data. Increase of water content in slide zone reduces the effectiveness of the shearing resistance and increase the sliding movement. Time-lapse resistivity changes to slope failure is determined through geophysical Factor of Safety which depends on resistivity and site topography. This ERT technique infers soil property at variable depths in wider areas. This approach to retrieve the soil property and overcomes the limit of the point of information provided by rain gauges and porous probes. Monitoring of slope stability without altering soil structure through the ERT technique is non-invasive with low cost. In landslide prone area an automated Electrical Resistivity Tomographic Imaging system should be installed permanently with electrode networks to monitor the hydraulic precursors to monitor landslide movement.

Keywords: 2D ERT, landslide, safety factor, slope stability

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

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The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer reactions could provide us with useful information about the attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The experimental data were analyzed using two approaches; Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

Keywords: deuteron transfer, elastic scattering, optical model, double folding, density distribution

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Authors: Jérôme de Reffye, Marc Antoni

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Following the development of the ERTMS system, we think it is interesting to develop another software-based track circuit system which would fit secondary railway lines with an easy-to-work implementation and a low sensitivity to rail-wheel impedance variations. We called this track circuit 'Track Railway by Automatic Circuits.' To be internationally implemented, this system must not have any mechanical component and must be compatible with existing track circuit systems. For example, the system is independent from the French 'Joints Isolants Collés' that isolate track sections from one another, and it is equally independent from component used in Germany called 'Counting Axles,' in French 'compteur d’essieux.' This track circuit is fully interoperable. Such universality is obtained by replacing the train detection mechanical system with a space-time filtering of train position. The various track sections are defined by the frequency of a continuous signal. The set of frequencies related to the track sections is a set of orthogonal functions in a Hilbert Space. Thus the failure probability of track sections separation is precisely calculated on the basis of signal-to-noise ratio. SNR is a function of the level of traction current conducted by rails. This is the reason why we developed a very powerful algorithm to reject noise and jamming to obtain an SNR compatible with the precision required for the track circuit and SIL 4 level. The SIL 4 level is thus reachable by an adjustment of the set of orthogonal functions. Our major contributions to railway engineering signalling science are i) Train space localization is precisely defined by a calibration system. The operation bypasses the GSM-R radio system of the ERTMS system. Moreover, the track circuit is naturally protected against radio-type jammers. After the calibration operation, the track circuit is autonomous. ii) A mathematical topology adapted to train space localization by following the train through a linear time filtering of the received signal. Track sections are numerically defined and can be modified with a software update. The system was numerically simulated, and results were beyond our expectations. We achieved a precision of one meter. Rail-ground and rail-wheel impedance sensitivity analysis gave excellent results. Results are now complete and ready to be published. This work was initialised as a research project of the French Railways developed by the Pi-Ramses Company under SNCF contract and required five years to obtain the results. This track circuit is already at Level 3 of the ERTMS system, and it will be much cheaper to implement and to work. The traffic regulation is based on variable length track sections. As the traffic growths, the maximum speed is reduced, and the track section lengths are decreasing. It is possible if the elementary track section is correctly defined for the minimum speed and if every track section is able to emit with variable frequencies.

Keywords: track section, track circuits, space-time crossing, adaptive track section, automatic railway signalling

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Authors: Wi-Sun Ryu, Eun-Kee Bae

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Prior studies have shown that patients with right hemispheric stroke are likely to seek medical service compared with those with left hemispheric stroke. However, the underlying mechanism for this phenomenon is unknown. In the present study, we generated lesion probability maps in a patient with right and left middle cerebral artery infarct and statistically compared. We found that precentral gyrus-Brodmann area 44, a language area in the left hemisphere - involvement was significantly higher in patients with left hemispheric stroke. This finding suggests that a language dysfunction was more noticeable, thereby taking more patients to hospitals.

Keywords: cerebral infarct, brain MRI, statistical parametric mapping, middle cerebral infarct

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Authors: Riaz A. Agha, Alexander J. Fowler, Seon-Young Lee, Buket Gundogan, Katharine Whitehurst, Harkiran K. Sagoo, Kyung Jin Lee Jeong, Douglas G. Altman, Dennis P. Orgill

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Introduction: Case Series are an important and common study type. Currently, no guideline exists for reporting case series and there is evidence of key data being missed from such reports. We propose to develop a reporting guideline for case series using a methodologically robust technique. The first step in this process is a systematic review of literature relevant to the reporting deficiencies of case series. Methods: A systematic review of methodological and reporting quality in surgical case series was performed. The electronic search strategy was developed by an information specialist and included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Methods Register, Science Citation index and Conference Proceedings Citation index, from the start of indexing until 5th November 2014. Independent screening, eligibility assessments and data extraction was performed. Included articles were analyzed for five areas of deficiency: failure to use standardized definitions missing or selective data transparency or incomplete reporting whether alternate study designs were considered. Results: The database searching identified 2,205 records. Through the process of screening and eligibility assessments, 92 articles met inclusion criteria. Frequency of methodological and reporting issues identified was a failure to use standardized definitions (57%), missing or selective data (66%), transparency, or incomplete reporting (70%), whether alternate study designs were considered (11%) and other issues (52%). Conclusion: The methodological and reporting quality of surgical case series needs improvement. Our data shows that clear evidence-based guidelines for the conduct and reporting of a case series may be useful to those planning or conducting them.

Keywords: case series, reporting quality, surgery, systematic review

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Authors: Malkit Singh

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This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the problem of migration from Punjab to the West while analyzing the history and patterns of generations of migration of Punjabis to the West. A special emphasis is given to link the present socio-economic and political crisis with the historical pattern of Punjabis’ migration to the West from colonial India to Independent Bharat, along with the stories of the success and failures of Western aspirants’ youth from Punjab. The roots of the migration from Punjab to the West have been traced from the invasion of the British in Punjab, resulting in the socio-economic and political dismantling of the Punjabi society, which resulted in the migration of the Punjabis to the other colonies of the British Empire. The grim position at home despite of all the efforts and hard work by the majority of the Punjabis, particularly from the farmer community and the shining lifestyle of some families of the village or vicinity who have some relatives in the West have encouraged the large number of Punjabis to change their fortune by working in West. However, the Visa and Work Permit regime has closed the doors of the West for those who are unskilled, semi-skilled and not qualified for the visa and work permit norms, but their inspiration to change their fortune by working abroad at any cost has resulted into the development of big business fraud of immigration agent and firms in Punjab that resulted into the loss of the thousands lives, imprisonment in the foreign and selling of the properties of the Punjabis. The greed for the greener pastures in the West and, the plight of the deserted wives of NRIs and the illegal routes adopted by the Punjabi youth due to the non-availability of visas and work permits are dealt in a comprehensive method. The rise and fall of Punjab as a land of the breadbasket of Bharat and the marginalization of the farmers with middle and small holdings due to the capital-intensive techniques are linked with the forced migration of the Punjabis. The failure of the government to address and respond to the rampant corruption, agriculture failure and the resulting problems of law and order before and after the troubled period of militancy in Punjab and the resulting migration to the West are comprehensively covered. The new trend of the Student Visa and Study abroad, particularly in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, despite of the availability of quality education at very low cost in India. The early success of some students in getting study visas from Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. and getting permanent immigration to these countries have encouraged the majority of Punjabi youth to leave their motherland for better opportunities in the prosperous lands, that is, again, failed as these countries are flooded with the Punjabi students. Moreover, the total failure of the political leadership of Punjab to address the basic needs of society, like law and order and stop the drug menace issues in the post-militancy Punjab is also done to understand the problem.

Keywords: Punjab, migration, West, agriculture

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Authors: Majid Yazdandoust

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This study, tries to suggest a design method based on displacement using finite difference numerical modeling in reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. In this case, dynamic loading characteristics such as duration, frequency, peak ground acceleration, geometrical characteristics of reinforced soil structure and type of the site are considered to correct the pseudo static method and finally introduce the pseudo static coefficient as a function of seismic performance level and peak ground acceleration. For this purpose, the influence of dynamic loading characteristics, reinforcement length, height of reinforced system and type of the site are investigated on seismic behavior of reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. Numerical results illustrate that the seismic response of this type of wall is highly dependent to cumulative absolute velocity, maximum acceleration, and height and reinforcement length so that the reinforcement length can be introduced as the main factor in shape of failure. Considering the loading parameters, mechanically stabilized earth wall parameters and type of the site showed that the used method in this study leads to most efficient designs in comparison with other methods which are generally suggested in cods that are usually based on limit-equilibrium concept. The outputs show the over-estimation of equilibrium design methods in comparison with proposed displacement based methods here.

Keywords: pseudo static coefficient, seismic performance design, numerical modeling, steel strip reinforcement, retaining walls, cumulative absolute velocity, failure shape

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Authors: N. Nivedita, S. Durbha

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Critical Infrastructure (CI) consists of services and technological networks such as healthcare, transport, water supply, electricity supply, information technology etc. These systems are necessary for the well-being and to maintain effective functioning of society. Critical Infrastructures can be represented as nodes in a network where they are connected through a set of links depicting the logical relationship among them; these nodes are interdependent on each other and interact with each at other at various levels, such that the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of another. Disruption in the service of one infrastructure nodes of the network during a disaster would lead to cascading and escalating disruptions across other infrastructures nodes in the network. The operation of Healthcare Infrastructure is one such Critical Infrastructure that depends upon a complex interdependent network of other Critical Infrastructure, and during disasters it is very vital for the Healthcare Infrastructure to be protected, accessible and prepared for a mass casualty. To reduce the consequences of a disaster on the Critical Infrastructure and to ensure a resilient Critical Health Infrastructure network, knowledge, understanding, modeling, and analyzing the inter-dependencies between the infrastructures is required. The paper would present inter-dependencies related to Healthcare Critical Infrastructure based on Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets modeling approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The model properties are being analyzed for the various state changes which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure. The failure probabilities for the failure risk of interconnected systems are calculated by deriving a reachability graph, which is later mapped to a Markov chain. By analytically solving and analyzing the Markov chain, the overall vulnerability of the Healthcare CI HCPN model is demonstrated. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information-based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behavior of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Keywords: critical infrastructure interdependency, hierarchical coloured petrinet, healthcare critical infrastructure, Petri Nets, Markov chain

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Authors: Elena Mugarza, Stephanie Glendinning, Ross Stirling, Colin Davies

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The effects of climate change and increased rainfall events on UK-based infrastructure are observable, with an increasing number being reported on in the national press. The fatal derailment at Stonehaven in 2020 prompted a wider review of Network Rail-owned earthworks assets. The event was indicated by the Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB) to be caused by mis-installed drainage on the adjacent cutting. The slope failure on Snake Pass (public highway A57) was reportedly caused by significant water ingress following numerous storm events and resulted in the road’s closure for several months. This problem is only projected to continue with greater intensity and more prolonged rainfall events forecasted in the future. Subsequently, this project is designed to evaluate effective drainage trench design within infrastructure embankments, considering the capillary barrier phenomenon that may govern their deterioration and resultant failure. Theoretically, the differential between grain sizes of the embankment clays and gravels, customarily used in drainage trenches, would have a limiting effect on infiltration. As such, it is anticipated that the inclusion of an additional material with an intermediate grain size should improve the hydraulic conductivity across the drainage boundary. Multiple drainage designs will be studied using instrumentation within the drain and surrounding clays. Data from the real-world installation at the BIONICS embankment will be collected and compared with laboratory and Finite Element (FE) simulations. This research aims to reduce the risk of infrastructure slope failures by improving the resilience of earthwork drainage and lessening the consequential impact on transportation networks.

Keywords: earthworks, slope drainage, transportation slopes, deterioration, capillary barriers, field study

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Authors: Ayesha M. Facey

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The evaluation sought to determine the factors associated with the high failure rate among students taking a first-year introductory statistics course. By utilizing Tyler’s Objective Based Model, the main objectives were: to assess the effectiveness of the lecturer’s teaching strategies; to determine the proportion of students who attends lectures and tutorials frequently and to determine the impact of infrequent attendance on performance; to determine how the assigned activities assisted in students understanding of the course content; to ascertain the possible issues being faced by students in understanding the course material and obtain possible solutions to the challenges and to determine whether the learning outcomes have been achieved based on an assessment of the second in-course examination. A quantitative survey research strategy was employed and the study population was students enrolled in semester one of the academic year 2015/2016. A convenience sampling approach was employed resulting in a sample of 98 students. Primary data was collected using self-administered questionnaires over a one-week period. Secondary data was obtained from the results of the second in-course examination. Data were entered and analyzed in SPSS version 22 and both univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted on the information obtained from the questionnaires. Univariate analyses provided description of the sample through means, standard deviations and percentages while bivariate analyses were done using Spearman’s Rho correlation coefficient and Chi-square analyses. For secondary data, an item analysis was performed to obtain the reliability of the examination questions, difficulty index and discriminant index. The examination results also provided information on the weak areas of the students and highlighted the learning outcomes that were not achieved. Findings revealed that students were more likely to participate in lectures than tutorials and that attendance was high for both lectures and tutorials. There was a significant relationship between participation in lectures and performance on examination. However, a high proportion of students has been absent from three or more tutorials as well as lectures. A higher proportion of students indicated that they completed the assignments obtained from the lectures sometimes while they rarely completed tutorial worksheets. Students who were more likely to complete their assignments were significantly more likely to perform well on their examination. Additionally, students faced a number of challenges in understanding the course content and the topics of probability, binomial distribution and normal distribution were the most challenging. The item analysis also highlighted these topics as problem areas. Problems doing mathematics and application and analyses were their major challenges faced by students and most students indicated that some of the challenges could be alleviated if additional examples were worked in lectures and they were given more time to solve questions. Analysis of the examination results showed that a number of learning outcomes were not achieved for a number of topics. Based on the findings recommendations were made that suggested adjustments to grade allocations, delivery of lectures and methods of assessment.

Keywords: evaluation, item analysis, Tyler’s objective based model, university statistics

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Authors: Noe Brice Nkoumbou Kaptchouang, Pierre-Guy Vincent, Yann Monerie

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The present work addresses the modelling and the simulation of crack initiation and propagation in ductile materials which failed by void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. One of the current research frameworks on crack propagation is the use of cohesive-volumetric approach where the crack growth is modelled as a decohesion of two surfaces in a continuum material. In this framework, the material behavior is characterized by two constitutive relations, the volumetric constitutive law relating stress and strain, and a traction-separation law across a two-dimensional surface embedded in the three-dimensional continuum. Several cohesive models have been proposed for the simulation of crack growth in brittle materials. On the other hand, the application of cohesive models in modelling crack growth in ductile material is still a relatively open field. One idea developed in the literature is to identify the traction separation for ductile material based on the behavior of a continuously-deforming unit cell failing by void growth and coalescence. Following this method, the present study proposed a semi-analytical cohesive model for ductile material based on a micromechanical approach. The strain localization band prior to ductile failure is modelled as a cohesive band, and the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman plasticity model (GTN) is used to model the behavior of the cohesive band and derived a corresponding traction separation law. The numerical implementation of the model is realized using the non-smooth contact method (NSCD) where cohesive models are introduced as mixed boundary conditions between each volumetric finite element. The present approach is applied to the simulation of crack growth in nuclear ferritic steel. The model provides an alternative way to simulate crack propagation using the numerical efficiency of cohesive model with a traction separation law directly derived from porous continuous model.

Keywords: ductile failure, cohesive model, GTN model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Ergin Kosa, Ali Göksenli

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Erosion and abrasion are wear mechanisms reducing the lifetime of machine elements like valves, pump and pipe systems. Both wear mechanisms are acting at the same time, causing a “Synergy” effect, which leads to a rapid damage of the surface. Different parameters are effective on erosive abrasive wear rate. In this study effect of particle impact angle on wear rate and wear mechanism of ductile and brittle materials was investigated. A new slurry pot was designed for experimental investigation. As abrasive particle, silica sand was used. Particle size was ranking between 200-500 µm. All tests were carried out in a sand-water mixture of 20% concentration for four hours. Impact velocities of the particles were 4,76 m/s. As ductile material steel St 37 with Brinell Hardness Number (BHN) of 245 and quenched St 37 with 510 BHN was used as brittle material. After wear tests, morphology of the eroded surfaces were investigated for better understanding of the wear mechanisms acting at different impact angles by using optical microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscope. The results indicated that wear rate of ductile material was higher than brittle material. Maximum wear was observed by ductile material at a particle impact angle of 300. On the contrary wear rate increased by brittle materials by an increase in impact angle and reached maximum value at 450. High amount of craters were detected after observation on ductile material surface Also plastic deformation zones were detected, which are typical failure modes for ductile materials. Craters formed by particles were deeper according to brittle material worn surface. Amount of craters decreased on brittle material surface. Microcracks around craters were detected which are typical failure modes of brittle materials. Deformation wear was the dominant wear mechanism on brittle material. At the end it is concluded that wear rate could not be directly related to impact angle of the hard particle due to the different responses of ductile and brittle materials.

Keywords: erosive wear, particle impact angle, silica sand, wear rate, ductile-brittle material

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Authors: Kais Manai

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The main part of this work focuses on the study of pion/muon separation at low energy using a nuclear Emulsion Cloud Chamber (ECC) made of lead and nuclear emulsion films. The work consists of two parts: particle reconstruction algorithm and a Neural Network that assigns to each reconstructed particle the probability to be a muon or a pion. The pion/muon separation algorithm has been optimized by using a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of the ECC and tested on real data. The algorithm allows to achieve a 60% muon identification efficiency with a pion misidentification smaller than 3%.

Keywords: nuclear emulsion, particle identification, tracking, neural network

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Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

Abstract:

Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

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Authors: Martin Alexander Eder, Sergei Semenov

Abstract:

Many glass-epoxy composite structures, such as large utility wind turbine rotor blades (WTBs), comprise of adhesive joints with typically thick bond lines used to connect the different components during assembly. Performance optimization of rotor blades to increase power output by simultaneously maintaining high stiffness-to-low-mass ratios entails intricate geometries in conjunction with complex anisotropic material behavior. Consequently, adhesive joints in WTBs are subject to multiaxial stress states with significant stress gradients depending on the local joint geometry. Moreover, the dynamic aero-elastic interaction of the WTB with the airflow generates non-proportional, variable amplitude stress histories in the material. Empiricism shows that a prominent failure type in WTBs is high cycle fatigue failure of adhesive bond line interfaces, which in fact over time developed into a design driver as WTB sizes increase rapidly. Structural optimization employed at an early design stage, therefore, sets high demands on computationally efficient interface fatigue models capable of predicting the critical locations prone for interface failure. The numerical stress-based interface fatigue model presented in this work uses the Drucker-Prager criterion to compute three different damage indices corresponding to the two interface shear tractions and the outward normal traction. The two-parameter Drucker-Prager model was chosen because of its ability to consider shear strength enhancement under compression and shear strength reduction under tension. The governing interface damage index is taken as the maximum of the triple. The damage indices are computed through the well-known linear Palmgren-Miner rule after separate rain flow-counting of the equivalent shear stress history and the equivalent pure normal stress history. The equivalent stress signals are obtained by self-similar scaling of the Drucker-Prager surface whose shape is defined by the uniaxial tensile strength and the shear strength such that it intersects with the stress point at every time step. This approach implicitly assumes that the damage caused by the prevailing multiaxial stress state is the same as the damage caused by an amplified equivalent uniaxial stress state in the three interface directions. The model was implemented as Python plug-in for the commercially available finite element code Abaqus for its use with solid elements. The model was used to predict the interface damage of an adhesively bonded, tapered glass-epoxy composite cantilever I-beam tested by LM Wind Power under constant amplitude compression-compression tip load in the high cycle fatigue regime. Results show that the model was able to predict the location of debonding in the adhesive interface between the webfoot and the cap. Moreover, with a set of two different constant life diagrams namely in shear and tension, it was possible to predict both the fatigue lifetime and the failure mode of the sub-component with reasonable accuracy. It can be concluded that the fidelity, robustness and computational efficiency of the proposed model make it especially suitable for rapid fatigue damage screening of large 3D finite element models subject to complex dynamic load histories.

Keywords: adhesive, fatigue, interface, multiaxial stress

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Authors: Fils Olivier Kamanzi

Abstract:

This research Paper shows that materials CFRP were used to rehabilitate 9 Beams and retrofitting of 9 Beams with size (125x250x2300) mm each for M50 grade of concrete with 20% of Volume of Cement replaced by GGBS as a mineral Admixture. Superplasticizer (ForscoConplast SP430) used to reduce the water-cement ratio and maintaining good workability of fresh concrete (Slump test 57mm). Concrete Mix ratio 1:1.56:2.66 with a water-cement ratio of 0.31(ACI codebooks). A sample of 6cubes sized (150X150X150) mm, 6cylinders sized (150ФX300H) mm and 6Prisms sized (100X100X500) mm were cast, cured, and tested for 7,14&28days by compressive, tensile and flexure test; finally, mix design reaches the compressive strength of 59.84N/mm2. 21 Beams were cast and cured for up to 28 days, 3Beams were tested by a two-point loading machine as Control beams. 9 Beams were distressed in flexure by adopting failure up to final Yielding point under two-point loading conditions by taking 90% off Ultimate load. Three sets, each composed of three distressed beams, were rehabilitated by using CFRP sheets, one, two & three layers, respectively, and after being retested up to failure mode. Another three sets were freshly retrofitted also by using CFRP sheets one, two & three layers, respectively, and being tested by a two-point load method of compression strength testing machine. The aim of this study is to determine the flexural Strength & behaviors of repaired and retrofitted Beams by CFRP sheets for gaining good strength and considering economic aspects. The results show that rehabilitated beams increase its strength 47 %, 78 % & 89 %, respectively, to thickness of CFRP sheets and 41%, 51 %& 68 %, respectively too, for retrofitted Beams. The conclusion is that three layers of CFRP sheets are the best applicable in repairing and retrofitting the bonded beams method.

Keywords: retrofitting, rehabilitation, cfrp, rcc beam, flexural strength and behaviors, ggbs, and epoxy resin

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Authors: J. van Vuuren, D. J. van Vuuren, R. Muigai

Abstract:

In recent times, South Africa has experienced extensive droughts that created the need for reliable small water reservoirs. These reservoirs have comparatively quick fabrication and installation times compared to market alternatives. An elevated water tank has inherent potential energy, resulting in that no additional water pumps are required to sustain water pressure at the outlet point – thus ensuring that, without electricity, a water source is available. The initial construction formwork and the complex geometric shape of concrete towers that requires casting can become time-consuming, rendering steel towers preferable. Reinforced concrete foundations, cast in advance, are required to be of sufficient strength. Thereafter, the prefabricated steel supporting structure and tank, which consist of steel panels, can be assembled and erected on site within a couple of days. Due to the time effectiveness of this system, it has become a popular solution to aid drought-stricken areas. These sites are normally in rural, schools or farmland areas. As these tanks can contain up to 2000kL (approximately 19.62MN) of water, combined with supporting lattice steel structures ranging between 5m and 30m in height, failure of one of the supporting members will result in system failure. Thus, there is a need to gain a comprehensive understanding of the operation conditions because of wind loadings on both the tank and the supporting structure. The aim of the research is to investigate the relationship between the theoretical wind loading on a lattice steel tower in combination with an elevated sectional steel tank, and the current wind loading codes, as applicable to South Africa. The research compares the respective design parameters (both theoretical and wind loading codes) whereby FEA analyses are conducted on the various design solutions. The currently available wind loading codes are not sufficient to design slender cantilever latticed steel towers that support elevated water storage tanks. Numerous factors in the design codes are not comprehensively considered when designing the system as these codes are dependent on various assumptions. Factors that require investigation for the study are; the wind loading angle to the face of the structure that will result in maximum load; the internal structural effects on models with different bracing patterns; the loading influence of the aspect ratio of the tank; and the clearance height of the tank on the structural members. Wind loads, as the variable that results in the highest failure rate of cantilevered lattice steel tower structures, require greater understanding. This study aims to contribute towards the design process of elevated steel tanks with lattice tower supporting structures.

Keywords: aspect ratio, bracing patterns, clearance height, elevated steel tanks, lattice steel tower, wind loads

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Authors: Nahia H. Sassine, Frédéric-Victor Donzé, Arnaud Bruch, Barthélemy Harthong

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Thermal Energy Storage (TES) systems are central elements of various types of power plants operated using renewable energy sources. Packed bed TES can be considered as a cost–effective solution in concentrated solar power plants (CSP). Such a device is made up of a tank filled with a granular bed through which heat-transfer fluid circulates. However, in such devices, the tank might be subjected to catastrophic failure induced by a mechanical phenomenon known as thermal ratcheting. Thermal stresses are accumulated during cycles of loading and unloading until the failure happens. For instance, when rocks are used as storage material, the tank wall expands more than the solid medium during charge process, a gap is created between the rocks and tank walls and the filler material settles down to fill it. During discharge, the tank contracts against the bed, resulting in thermal stresses that may exceed the wall tank yield stress and generate plastic deformation. This phenomenon is repeated over the cycles and the tank will be slowly ratcheted outward until it fails. This paper aims at studying the evolution of tank wall stresses over granular bed thermal cycles, taking into account both thermal and mechanical loads, with a numerical model based on the discrete element method (DEM). Simulations were performed to study two different thermal configurations: (i) the tank is heated homogeneously along its height or (ii) with a vertical gradient of temperature. Then, the resulting loading stresses applied on the tank are compared as well the response of the internal granular material. Besides the study of the influence of different thermal configurations on the storage tank response, other parameters are varied, such as the internal angle of friction of the granular material, the dispersion of particles diameters as well as the tank’s dimensions. Then, their influences on the kinematics of the granular bed submitted to thermal cycles are highlighted.

Keywords: discrete element method (DEM), thermal cycles, thermal energy storage, thermocline

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: decision tree modeling, forecasting, humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Junfeng Yan, Wenkui Hou

Abstract:

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a technology to monitor the equipment status and predict impending faults. It is used to predict the potential fault and provide fault information and track trends of system degradation by capturing characteristics signals. So how to detect characteristics signals is very important. The select of test point plays a very important role in detecting characteristics signal. Traditionally, we use dependency model to select the test point containing the most detecting information. But, facing the large complicated system, the dependency model is not built so easily sometimes and the greater trouble is how to calculate the matrix. Rely on this premise, the paper provide a highly effective method to select test point without dependency model. Because signal flow model is a diagnosis model based on failure mode, which focuses on system’s failure mode and the dependency relationship between the test points and faults. In the signal flow model, a fault information can flow from the beginning to the end. According to the signal flow model, we can find out location and structure information of every test point and module. We break the signal flow model up into serial and parallel parts to obtain the final relationship function between the system’s testability or prediction metrics and test points. Further, through the partial derivatives operation, we can obtain every test point’s importance degree in determining the testability metrics, such as undetected rate, false alarm rate, untrusted rate. This contributes to installing the test point according to the real requirement and also provides a solid foundation for the Prognostics and Health Management. According to the real effect of the practical engineering application, the method is very efficient.

Keywords: false alarm rate, importance degree, signal flow model, undetected rate, untrusted rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Bumjo Kim, Hyun Jin Kim, Joon Ha Kim

Abstract:

The separate sewer system is that collects the wastewater as a sewer pipe and rainfall as a stormwater pipe separately, and then sewage is treated in the wastewater treatment plant, the stormwater is discharged to rivers or lakes through stormwater drainage pipes. Unfortunately, even for separate sewer systems, it is not possible to prevent Rainfall Driven Inflow/Infiltration(RDII) completely to the sewer pipe. Even if the sewerage line is renovated, there is an ineluctable RDII due to the combined sewer system in the house or the difficulty of sewage maintenance in private areas. The basic statistical analysis was performed using environmental data including rainfall, sewage, water qualities and groundwater level in the strict of Gwangju in ​South Korea. During rainfall in the target area, RDII showed an increased rate of 13.4 ~ 53.0% compared to that of a clear day and showed a rapid hydrograph response of 0.3 ~ 3.0 hr. As a result of water quality analysis, BOD5 concentration decreased by 17.3 % and salinity concentration decreased by 8.8 % at the representative spot in the project area compared to the sunny day during rainfall. In contrast to the seasonal fluctuation range of 0.38 m ~ 0.55 m in groundwater in Gwangju area and 0.58 m ~ 0.78 m in monthly fluctuation range, while the difference between groundwater level and the depth of sewer pipe laying was 2.70 m on average, which is larger than the range of fluctuation. Comprehensively, it can be concluded that the increasing of flowrate at sewer line is due to not infiltration water caused by groundwater level rise, construction failure, cracking due to joint failure or conduit deterioration, rainfall was directly inflowed into the sewer line rapidly. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the 'Climate Technology Development and Application' research project (#K07731) through a grant provided by GIST in 2017.

Keywords: ground water, rainfall, rainfall driven inflow/infiltration, separate sewer system

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: A. Hamadelnil, Z. Razak, E. Matsoom

Abstract:

Boat landings on fixed offshore structure are designed to absorb the impact energy from the boats approaching the platform for crew transfer. As the size and speed of operating boats vary, the design and maintenance of the boat landings become more challenging. Different oil and gas operators adopting different design criteria for the boat landing design in the region of South East Asia. Rubber strip is used to increase the capacity of the boat landing in absorbing bigger impact energy. Recently, it has been reported that all the rubber strips peel off the boat landing frame within one to two years, and replacement is required to avoid puncturing of the boat’s hull by the exposed sharp edges and bolts used to secure the rubber strip. The capacity of the boat landing in absorbing the impact energy is reduced after the failure of the rubber strip and results in failure of the steel members. The replacement of the rubber strip is costly as it requires a diving spread. The objective of this study is to propose the most practicable criteria to be adopted by oil and gas operators in the design of the boat landings in the region of South East Asia to improve the performance of the boat landing and assure safe operation and cheaper maintenance. This study explores the current design and maintenance challenges of boat landing and compares between the criteria adopted by different operators. In addition, this study explains the reasons behind the denting of many of the boat landing. It also evaluates the effect of grout and rubber strip in the capacity of the boat landing and jacket legs and highlight. Boat landing model and analysis using USFOS and SACS software are carried out and presented in this study considering different design criteria. This study proposes the most practicable criteria to be used in designing the boat landing in South East Asia region to save cost and achieve better performance, safe operation and less cost and maintenance.

Keywords: boat landing, grout, plastic hinge, rubber strip

Procedia PDF Downloads 287