Search results for: probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Authors: B. M. Alshammari, M. A. El-Kady

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This paper presents a unified framework for assessment of reserve-based reliability levels in electric power systems. The unified approach is based on reserve-based analysis and assessment of the relationship between available generation capacities and required demand levels. The developed approach takes into account the load variations as well as contingencies which occur randomly causing some generation and/or transmission capacities to be lost (become unavailable). The calculated reserve based indices, which are important to assess the reserve capabilities of the power system for various operating scenarios are therefore probabilistic in nature. They reflect the fact that neither the load levels nor the generation or transmission capacities are known with absolute certainty. They are rather subjects to random variations and consequently. The calculated reserve-based reliability indices are all subjects to random variations where only expected values of these indices can be evaluated. This paper presents a unified approach to reserve-based reliability assessment of power systems using various reserve assessment criteria. Practical applications are also presented for demonstration purposes to the Saudi electricity power grid.

Keywords: assessment, power system, reserve, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 617

Authors: Dmitry Kukushkin

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Lineaments form complex grids on Earth's surface. Currently, one particular object of study for many researchers is the analysis and geological interpretation of maps of lineament density in an attempt to locate various geological structures. But lineament grids are made up of global, regional and local components, and this superimposition of lineament grids of various scales (global, regional, and local) renders this method less effective. Besides, the erosion processes and the erosional resistance of rocks lying on the surface play a significant role in the formation of lineament grids. Therefore, specific lineament density map is characterized by poor contrast (most anomalies do not exceed the average values by more than 30%) and unstable relation with local geological structures. Our method allows to confidently determine the location and boundaries of local geological structures that are likely to contain mineral deposits. Maps of the fields of lineament distortion (residual specific density) created by our method are characterized by high contrast with anomalies exceeding the average by upward of 200%, and stable correlation to local geological structures containing mineral deposits. Our method considers a lineament grid as a general lineaments field – surface manifestation of stress and strain fields of Earth associated with geological structures of global, regional and local scales. Each of these structures has its own field of brittle dislocations that appears on the surface of its lineament field. Our method allows singling out local components by suppressing global and regional components of the general lineaments field. The remaining local lineament field is an indicator of local geological structures.The following are some of the examples of the method application: 1. Srednevilyuiskoye gas condensate field (Yakutia) - a direct proof of the effectiveness of methodology; 2. Structure of Astronomy (Taimyr) - confirmed by the seismic survey; 3. Active gold mine of Kadara (Chita Region) – confirmed by geochemistry; 4. Active gold mine of Davenda (Yakutia) - determined the boundaries of the granite massif that controls mineralization; 5. Object, promising to search for hydrocarbons in the north of Algeria - correlated with the results of geological, geochemical and geophysical surveys. For both Kadara and Davenda, the method demonstrated that the intensive anomalies of the local lineament fields are consistent with the geochemical anomalies and indicate the presence of the gold content at commercial levels. Our method of suppression of global and regional components results in isolating a local lineament field. In early stages of a geological exploration for oil and gas, this allows determining boundaries of various geological structures with very high reliability. Therefore, our method allows optimization of placement of seismic profile and exploratory drilling equipment, and this leads to a reduction of costs of prospecting and exploration of deposits, as well as acceleration of its commissioning.

Keywords: lineaments, mineral exploration, oil and gas, remote sensing

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Authors: P. Mukhopadhyay, N. C. Dey

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Occupational health hazard is a very common term in every emerging country. Along with the unorganized sector, most organized sectors including government industries are suffering from this affliction. In addition to workload, the seasonal changes also have some impacts on working environment. With this focus in mind, one hundred male industrial workers, who are directly involved to the task of Periodic Overhauling (POH) in a fabricating workshop in the public domain are selected for this research work. They have been studied during work periods throughout different seasons in a year. For each and every season, the participants working heart rate (WHR) is measured and compared with the standards given by different national and internationally recognized agencies i.e., World Health Organization (WHO) and American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) etc. The different environmental parameters i.e. dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), globe temperature (GT), natural wet bulb temperature (NWB), relative humidity (RH), wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), air velocity (AV), effective temperature (ET) are recorded throughout the seasons to critically observe the effect of seasonal changes on the WHR of the workers. The effect of changes in environment to the WHR of the workers is very much surprising. It is found that the percentages of workers who belong to the ‘very heavy’ workload category are 83.33%, 66.66% and 16.66% in the summer, rainy and winter seasons, respectively. Ongoing undertaking of this type of job profile forces the worker towards occupational disorders causing absenteeism. This occurrence results in lower production rates, and on the other hand, costs due to medical claims also weaken the industry’s economic condition. In this circumstance, the authors are trying to focus on some remedial measures from the ergonomic angle by proposing a new work/ rest regimen and introducing engineering controls along with management controls which may help the worker, and consequently, the management also.

Keywords: workload, working heart rate, occupational health hazard, industrial worker

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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Authors: M. A. Abdelfattah, F. K. Waleed

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Anticoccidials were utilized widely in veterinary practice for the avoidance of coccidiosis in poultry and assume a huge job as development promotants in ruminants. Ionophore harming is every now and again happens because of accidental access to medicated feed, errors in feed mixing, incorrect dosage calculation or misuse in non-recommended species. Camels on several farms in Eastern area of Saudi Arabia were accidently fed with a feed pellet containing 13 ppm salinomycin. One hundred and sixty-three camels died with mortality rate of 100%. The poisoning was clinically characterized by restlessness with tail lift to the top, jerk in the muscles of legs and thighs, excessive sweating, frequent setting and standing with body imbalance, lateral and sternal recumbences with the legs stretched back, eye tears with dilated pupil, vomiting of the stomach content, loss of consciousness and death of some of them. Feed analysis indicated the presence of salinomycin in pelleted feed in a range of 13 mg/kg-47 mg/kg. Necropsy findings and histopathological examinations were presented. Regulations and legal implications concerning with sale of contaminated feed in Saudi market are discussed in the light of feed law and by-law. The necessity for an effective implication of regulation concerning application of quality assurance systems based on the principles of Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) and the application of Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Point (HACCP) during feed production is necessary to avoid feed accident.

Keywords: medicated feed, salinomycin, anticoccidial, camel, toxicity

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Authors: Omar Alzeley, Sergey Utev

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Minimizing a constrained multivariate function is the fundamental of Machine learning, and these algorithms are at the core of data mining and data visualization techniques. The decision function that maps input points to output points is based on the result of optimization. This optimization is the central of learning theory. One approach to complex systems where the dynamics of the system is inferred by a statistical analysis of the fluctuations in time of some associated observable is time series analysis. The purpose of this paper is a mathematical transition from the autoregressive model of classical time series to the matrix formalization of quantum theory. Firstly, we have proposed a quantum time series model (QTS). Although Hamiltonian technique becomes an established tool to detect a deterministic chaos, other approaches emerge. The quantum probabilistic technique is used to motivate the construction of our QTS model. The QTS model resembles the quantum dynamic model which was applied to financial data. Secondly, various statistical methods, including machine learning algorithms such as the Kalman filter algorithm, are applied to estimate and analyses the unknown parameters of the model. Finally, simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been used to support our investigations. The proposed model has been examined by using real and simulated data. We establish the relation between quantum statistical machine and quantum time series via random matrix theory. It is interesting to note that the primary focus of the application of QTS in the field of quantum chaos was to find a model that explain chaotic behaviour. Maybe this model will reveal another insight into quantum chaos.

Keywords: machine learning, simulation techniques, quantum probability, tensor product, time series

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, SeungHyun Kim, JungKyu Choi, WooYoung Jung

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Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) is a major evolution for energy dissipation when used as infill material for seismic retrofitting of steel frame, a basic PMC infill wall system consists of two GFRP laminates surrounding an infill of foam core. This paper presents numerical analysis in terms of buckling resistance of GFRP sandwich infill panels system under the influence of environment temperature and stacking sequence of laminate skin. Mode of failure under in-plane compression is studied by means of numerical analysis with ABAQUS platform. Parameters considered in this study are contact length between infill and frame, laminate stacking sequence of GFRP skin and variation of mechanical properties due to increment of temperature. The analysis is done with four cases of simple stacking sequence over a range of temperature. The result showed that both the effect of temperature and stacking sequence alter the performance of entire panel system. The rises of temperature resulted in the decrements of the panel’s strength. This is due to the polymeric nature of this material. Additionally, the contact length also displays the effect on the performance of infill panel. Furthermore, the laminate stiffness can be modified by orientation of laminate, which can increase the infill panel strength. Hence, optimal performance of the entire panel system can be obtained by comparing different cases of stacking sequence.

Keywords: buckling resistance, GFRP infill panel, stacking sequence, temperature dependent

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Authors: Inyeol Paik, Ah-Ryang Kim

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In this research, a statistical analysis is carried out to examine the statistical properties of the formula given in the design code for concrete structures. The design formulas of the Korea highway bridge design code - the limit state design method (KHBDC) which is the current national bridge design code and the design code for concrete structures by Korea Concrete Institute (KCI) are applied for the analysis. The safety levels provided by the strength formulas of the design codes are defined based on the probabilistic and statistical theory.KHBDC is a reliability-based design code. The load and resistance factors of this code were calibrated to attain the target reliability index. It is essential to define the statistical properties for the design formulas in this calibration process. In general, the statistical characteristics of a member strength are due to the following three factors. The first is due to the difference between the material strength of the actual construction and that used in the design calculation. The second is the difference between the actual dimensions of the constructed sections and those used in design calculation. The third is the difference between the strength of the actual member and the formula simplified for the design calculation. In this paper, the statistical study is focused on the third difference. The formulas for calculating the shear strength of concrete members are presented in different ways in KHBDC and KCI. In this study, the statistical properties of design formulas were obtained through comparison with the database which comprises the experimental results from the reference publications. The test specimen was either reinforced with the shear stirrup or not. For an applied database, the bias factor was about 1.12 and the coefficient of variation was about 0.18. By applying the statistical properties of the design formula to the reliability analysis, it is shown that the resistance factors of the current design codes satisfy the target reliability indexes of both codes. Also, the minimum resistance factors of the KHBDC which is written in the material resistance factor format and KCE which is in the member resistance format are obtained and the results are presented. A further research is underway to calibrate the resistance factors of the high strength and high-performance concrete design guide.

Keywords: concrete design code, reliability analysis, resistance factor, shear strength, statistical property

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Authors: Roy Y. C. Huang, J. S. Kuang, Hamdolah Behnam

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Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.

Keywords: joint shear strength, reversed cyclic loading, seismic vulnerability, wide beam-column joints

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Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor

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A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.

Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution

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Authors: Vera Wilden, Benno Hoffmeister, Georgios Balaskas, Lukas Rauber, Burkhard Walter

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Light-weight timber frame elements represent an efficient structural solution for wooden multistory buildings. The wall elements of such buildings – which act as shear diaphragms- provide lateral stiffness and resistance to wind and seismic loads. The tendency towards multi-story structures leads to challenges regarding the prediction of stiffness, strength and ductility of the buildings. Lightweight timber frame elements are built up of several structural parts (sheeting, fasteners, frame, support and anchorages); each of them contributing to the dynamic response of the structure. This contribution describes the experimental and numerical investigation and development of enhanced lightweight timber frame buildings. These developments comprise high-performance timber frame walls with the variable arrangements of sheathing planes and dissipative anchors at the base of the timber buildings, which reduce damages to the timber structure and can be exchanged after significant earthquakes. In order to prove the performance of the developed elements in the context of a real building a full-scale two-story building core was designed and erected in the laboratory and tested experimentally for its seismic performance. The results of the tests and a comparison of the test results to the predicted behavior are presented. Observation during the test also reveals some aspects of the design and details which need to consider in the application of the timber walls in the context of the complete building.

Keywords: dissipative anchoring, full scale test, push-over-test, wood shear walls

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Hafiz Muhammad Tayyab Bhatti, Munazza Usmani

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One of nature's most destructive occurrences, floods do immense damage to communities and economic losses. Nigeria country, specifically southern Nigeria, is known for being prone to flooding. Even though periodic flooding occurs in Nigeria frequently, the floods of 2022 were the worst since those in 2012. Flood vulnerability analysis and mapping are still lacking in this region due to the very limited historical hydrological measurements and surveys on the effects of floods, which makes it difficult to develop and put into practice efficient flood protection measures. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are useful approaches to detecting, determining, and estimating the flood extent and its impacts. In this study, NOAA VIIR has been used to extract the flood extent using the flood water fraction data and afterward fused with GIS data for some zonal statistical analysis. The estimated possible flooding areas are validated using satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The goal is to map and studied flood extent, flood hazards, and their effects on the population, schools, and health facilities for each state of Nigeria. The resulting flood hazard maps show areas with high-risk levels clearly and serve as an important reference for planning and implementing future flood mitigation and control strategies. Overall, the study demonstrated the viability of using the chosen GIS and remote sensing approaches to detect possible risk regions to secure local populations and enhance disaster response capabilities during natural disasters.

Keywords: flood hazards, remote sensing, damage assessment, GIS, geospatial analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Seyyed Abbas Mojtabavi, Mojtaba Fatzaneh Moghadam, Masoud Mahdavi

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Steel Metal Shear Wall is one of the most common and widely used energy dissipation systems in structures, which is used today as a damping system due to the increase in the construction of metal structures. In the present study, the shear wall of the steel plate with dimensions of 5×3 m and thickness of 0.024 m was modeled with 2 floors of total height from the base level with finite element method in Abaqus software. The loading is done as a concentrated load at the upper point of the shear wall on the second floor based on step type buckle. The mesh in the model is applied in two directions of length and width of the shear wall, equal to 0.02 and 0.033, respectively, and the mesh in the models is of sweep type. Finally, it was found that the steel plate shear wall with cavity (CSPSW) compared to the SPSW model, S (Mises), Smax (In-Plane Principal), Smax (In-Plane Principal-ABS), Smax (Min Principal) increased by 53%, 70%, 68% and 43%, respectively. The presence of cavities has led to an increase in the estimated stresses, but their presence has caused critical stresses and critical deformations created to be removed from the inner surface of the shear wall and transferred to the desired sections (regular cavities) which can be suggested as a solution in seismic design and improvement of the structure to transfer possible damage during the earthquake and storm to the desired and pre-designed location in the structure.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall, abacus software, finite element method, , boundary element, seismic structural improvement, von misses stress

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Authors: Nasser-Eddine Attari

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After the earthquake many structures were classified as slightly damaged and, being uneconomic to replace them, at least in the short term, suitable means of repairs of the beam column joint area are being studied. Furthermore there exist a large number of buildings that need retrofitting of the joints before the next earthquake. The paper reports the results of the experimental programme, constituted of three beam-column reinforced concrete joints at a scale of one to three (1/3) tested under the effect of a pre-stressed axial load acting over the column. The beams were subjected at their ends to an alternate cyclic loading under displacement control to simulate a seismic action. Strain and cracking fields were monitored with the help a digital recording camera. Following the analysis of the results, a comparison can be made between the performances in terms of ductility, strength and mode of failure of the different strengthening solution considered.

Keywords: fibrereinforced polymers, joints, reinforced concrete, beam columns

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Authors: Ahmad Alwosheel, Ahmed Alqaraawi

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This work proposes an unsupervised text-independent probabilistic approach to recognize Quran reciter voice. It is an accurate approach that works on real time applications. This approach does not require a prior information about reciter models. It has two phases, where in the training phase the reciters' acoustical features are modeled using Gaussian Mixture Models, while in the testing phase, unlabeled reciter's acoustical features are examined among GMM models. Using this approach, a high accuracy results are achieved with efficient computation time process.

Keywords: Quran, speaker recognition, reciter recognition, Gaussian Mixture Model

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Authors: Kuo-Chun Chien, Chia-Hui Chang, Ren-Der Sun

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Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is a subtask for legal AI. Its main purpose is to use the facts of a case to predict the judgment result. In Taiwan's criminal procedure, when prosecutors complete the investigation of the case, they will decide whether to prosecute the suspect and which article of criminal law should be used based on the facts and evidence of the case. In this study, we collected 305,240 indictments from the public inquiry system of the procuratorate of the Ministry of Justice, which included 169 charges and 317 articles from 21 laws. We take the crime facts in the indictments as the main input to jointly learn the prediction model for law source, article, and charge simultaneously based on the pre-trained Bert model. For single article cases where the frequency of the charge and article are greater than 50, the prediction performance of law sources, articles, and charges reach 97.66, 92.22, and 60.52 macro-f1, respectively. To understand the big performance gap between articles and charges, we used a bipartite graph to visualize the relationship between the articles and charges, and found that the reason for the poor prediction performance was actually due to the wording precision. Some charges use the simplest words, while others may include the perpetrator or the result to make the charges more specific. For example, Article 284 of the Criminal Law may be indicted as “negligent injury”, "negligent death”, "business injury", "driving business injury", or "non-driving business injury". As another example, Article 10 of the Drug Hazard Control Regulations can be charged as “Drug Control Regulations” or “Drug Hazard Control Regulations”. In order to solve the above problems and more accurately predict the article and charge, we plan to include the article content or charge names in the input, and use the sentence-pair classification method for question-answer problems in the BERT model to improve the performance. We will also consider a sequence-to-sequence approach to charge prediction.

Keywords: legal judgment prediction, deep learning, natural language processing, BERT, data visualization

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Authors: Aarthi Sridhar, Henri Gavin, Karah Kelly

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Rolling Isolation Systems (RISs) are simple and effective means to mitigate earthquake hazards to equipment in critical and precious facilities, such as hospitals, network collocation facilities, supercomputer centers, and museums. The RIS works by isolating components acceleration the inertial forces felt by the subsystem. The RIS consists of two platforms with counter-facing concave surfaces (dishes) in each corner. Steel balls lie inside the dishes and allow the relative motion between the top and bottom platform. Formerly, a mathematical model for the dynamics of RISs was developed using Lagrange’s equations (LE) and experimentally validated. A new mathematical model was developed using Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint (GPLC) and verified by comparing impulse response trajectories of the GPLC model and the LE model in terms of the peak displacements and accelerations of the top platform. Mathematical models for the RIS are tedious to derive because of the non-holonomic rolling constraints imposed on the system. However, using Gauss’s Principle of Least constraint to find the equations of motion removes some of the obscurity and yields a system that can be easily extended. Though the GPLC model requires more state variables, the equations of motion are far simpler. The non-holonomic constraint is enforced in terms of accelerations and therefore requires additional constraint stabilization methods in order to avoid the possibility that numerical integration methods can cause the system to go unstable. The GPLC model allows the incorporation of more physical aspects related to the RIS, such as contribution of the vertical velocity of the platform to the kinetic energy and the mass of the balls. This mathematical model for the RIS is a tool to predict the motion of the isolation platform. The ability to statistically quantify the expected responses of the RIS is critical in the implementation of earthquake hazard mitigation.

Keywords: earthquake hazard mitigation, earthquake isolation, Gauss’s Principle of Least Constraint, nonlinear dynamics, rolling isolation system

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Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Goran Baloevic, Jure Radnic, Nikola Grgic

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The application of frames with masonry or panel infill is common in the engineering practice. In these cases, a frame is often considered to be a primary structure, while an infill is considered to be a secondary structure. In past calculations, the infill was rarely included in the design of frame structures in terms of their bearing capacity and safety. Recent calculations of such structures necessarily include the effect of infill since it contributes to stiffness and bearing capacity of overall system, especially under horizontal loads. In certain cases, if the infill is not included in the seismic design of frame structures, the result can be lower design safety. However, since the different configuration of the infill through the building’s height can be made, it is possible that contribution of such infill to the overall bearing capacity can be lower and seismic forces on the building can be increased due to greater stiffness of the structure. So far, many experimental and numerical researches on the behavior of infilled frames under horizontal static forces and earthquake have been performed. In this paper, several masonry-infilled concrete and steel frames under horizontal static forces and earthquake are analysed. The experimental results by shake-table and numerical results are compared in terms of the bearing capacity of bare and infilled frames. Herein, the stiffness of frames and infill were varied, with different position of the infill and different types of openings. Cases with positive and negative effects of the infill to the bearing capacity of the frames were considered. Finally, main conclusions and recommendations for practical application and design of masonry-infilled concrete and steel frames are given.

Keywords: bearing capacity, infilled frame, numerical model, shake table

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Authors: Sanam Haseen, Abdul Bari

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In this paper a three stage multivariate programming problem with random survey cost and variances as random variables has been formulated as a non-linear stochastic programming problem. The problem has been converted into an equivalent deterministic form using chance constraint programming and modified E-modeling. An empirical study of the problem has been done at the end of the paper using R-simulation.

Keywords: chance constraint programming, modified E-model, stochastic programming, stratified sample surveys, three stage sample surveys

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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Authors: Akshay Patil

Abstract:

Objective: Mediation analysis identifies causal pathways by testing the relationships between the NCR, the OS, and an intermediate variable that mediates the relationship between the Nimotuzumab-cisplatin-radiation (NCR) and OS. Introduction: In randomized controlled trials, the primary interest is in the mechanisms by which an intervention exerts its effects on the outcomes. Clinicians are often interested in how the intervention works (or why it does not work) through hypothesized causal mechanisms. In this work, we highlight the value of understanding causal mechanisms in randomized trial by applying causal mediation analysis in a randomized trial in oncology. Methods: Data was obtained from a phase III randomized trial (Subgroup of HPVNOCP). NCR is reported to significantly improve the OS of patients locally advanced head and neck cancer patients undergoing definitive chemoradiation. Here, based on trial data, the mediating effect of NCR on patient overall survival was systematically quantified through progression-free survival(PFS), disease free survival (DFS), Loco-regional failure (LRF), and the disease control rate (DCR), Overall response rate (ORR). Effects of potential mediators on the HR for OS with NCR versus cisplatin-radiation (CR) were analyzed by Cox regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using R software Version 3.6.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Results: Effects of potential mediator PFS was an association between NCR treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect (IE) 0.76(0.62 – 0.95), which mediated 60.69% of the treatment effect. Taking into account baseline confounders, the overall adjusted hazard ratio of death was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43 – 0.96; P=0.03). The DFS was also a significant mediator and had an IE 0.77 (95% CI; 0.62-0.93), 58% mediated). Smaller mediation effects (maximum 27%) were observed for LRF with IE 0.88(0.74 – 1.06). Both DCR and ORR mediated 10% and 15%, respectively, of the effect of NCR vs. CR on the OS with IE 0.65 (95% CI; 0.81 – 1.08) and 0.94(95% CI; 0.79 – 1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that PFS and DFS were the most important mediators of the OS with nimotuzumab to weekly cisplatin-radiation in HPVNOCP.

Keywords: mediation analysis, cancer data, survival, NCR, HPV negative oropharyngeal

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Authors: Likewin Thomas, M. V. Manoj Kumar, B. Annappa

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The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network0 s recommendation model for an online process using the complexity of load, performance, and average servicing time of the resources. Here, the proposed model investigates the resource performance using stochastic gradient decent method for learning ranking function. A probabilistic cost function is implemented to identify the optimal θ values (load) on each resource. Based on this result the recommendation of resource suitable for performing the currently executing task is made. The test result of CoSeLoG project is presented with an accuracy of 72.856%.

Keywords: ADALINE, neural network, gradient decent, process mining, resource behaviour, polynomial regression model

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Authors: Abdullah Alenezi, Mane Alsudrawi, Rafat Misak

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Kuwait is faced with a potentially wide and harmful range of both natural and anthropogenic hazardous events such as dust storms, floods, fires, nuclear accidents, earthquakes, oil spills, tsunamis and other disasters. For Kuwait can be highly vulnerable to these complex environmental risks, an up-to-date and in-depth understanding of their typology, genesis, and impact on the Kuwaiti society is needed. Adequate anticipation and management of environmental crises further require a comprehensive system of decision support to the benefit of decision makers to further bridge the gap between (technical) risk understanding and public action. For that purpose, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), intends to establish a decision support center for management of the environmental crisis in Kuwait. The center will support policy makers, stakeholders and national committees with technical information that helps them efficiently and effectively assess, monitor to manage environmental disasters using decision support tools. These tools will build on state of the art quantification and visualization techniques, such as remote sensing information, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), simulation and prediction models, early warning systems, etc. The center is conceived as a central facility which will be designed, operated and managed by KISR in coordination with national authorities and decision makers of the country. Our vision is that by 2035 the center will be recognized as a leading national source of scientific advice on national risk management in Kuwait and build unity of effort among Kuwaiti’s institutions, government agencies, public and private organizations through provision and sharing of information. The project team now focuses on capacity building through upgrading some KISR facilities manpower development, build strong collaboration with international alliance.

Keywords: decision support, environment, hazard, Kuwait

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Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

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A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

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Authors: Pavan K. Emani, Shashank Kothari, V. S. Phanikanth

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The ultimate load analysis of RC pile groups has assumed a lot of significance under liquefying soil conditions, especially due to post-earthquake studies of 1964 Niigata, 1995 Kobe and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The present study reports the results of numerical simulations on pile groups subjected to monotonically increasing lateral loads under design amounts of pile axial loading. The soil liquefaction has been considered through the non-linear p-y relationship of the soil springs, which can vary along the depth/length of the pile. This variation again is related to the liquefaction potential of the site and the magnitude of the seismic shaking. As the piles in the group can reach their extreme deflections and rotations during increased amounts of lateral loading, a precise modeling of the inelastic behavior of the pile cross-section is done, considering the complete stress-strain behavior of concrete, with and without confinement, and reinforcing steel, including the strain-hardening portion. The possibility of the inelastic buckling of the individual piles is considered in the overall collapse modes. The model is analysed using Riks analysis in finite element software to check the post buckling behavior and plastic collapse of piles. The results confirm the kinds of failure modes predicted by centrifuge test results reported by researchers on pile group, although the pile material used is significantly different from that of the simulation model. The extension of the present work promises an important contribution to the design codes for pile groups in liquefying soils.

Keywords: collapse load analysis, inelastic buckling, liquefaction, pile group

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Authors: S. P. Rana

Abstract:

Objectives: For the manufacture of a very thin strip or a strip with a high-quality finish, the stainless steel sheet that is called billet is re-rolled in re-rolling mill to make stainless steel sheet of 18 gauges. The rolls of re-rolling mill exert tremendous pressure over the sheet and there is likely chance of breaking of stainless steel strip from the sheet. The objective of the study was to minimise the number of accidents in steel re-rolling mills due to ejection of stainless steel strip and to minimize the pollution caused by the pickling process used in these units. Methods: Looking into the high rate of frequency and severity of accidents as well as pollution hazard in re-rolling and pickling mills, it becomes essential to make necessary arrangements for prevention of accidents in such type of industry. The author carried out survey/inspections of a large number of re-rolling and pickling mills and allied units. During the course of inspection, the working of these steel re-rolling and pickling mills was closely studied and monitored. A number of accidents involving re-rolling mills were investigated and subsequently remedial measures to prevent the occurrence of such accidents were suggested. Assessment of occupational safety and health system of these units was carried out and compliance level of the statutory requirements was checked. The workers were medically examined and monitored to ascertain their health conditions. Results: Proper use of safety gadgets by workers, machine guarding and regular training brought down the risk to an acceptable level and discharged effluent pollution was brought down to permissible limits. The fatal accidents have been reduced by 83%. Conclusions: Effective enforcement and implementation of the directions/suggestions given to the managements of such units brought down the no. of accidents to a rational level. The number of fatal accidents has reduced by 83% during the study period. The effective implementation of pollution control device curtailed the pollution level to an acceptable level.

Keywords: re-rolling mill, hazard, accident, health hazards

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Authors: Hemin Yuan, Yun Wang, Xiangchun Wang

Abstract:

Gas hydrate is drawing attention due to the fact that it has an enormous amount all over the world, which is almost twice the conventional hydrocarbon reserves, making it a potential alternative source of energy. It is widely distributed in permafrost and continental ocean shelves, and many countries have launched national programs for investigating the gas hydrate. Gas hydrate is mainly explored through seismic methods, which include bottom simulating reflectors (BSR), amplitude blanking, and polarity reverse. These seismic methods are effective at finding the gas hydrate formations but usually contain large uncertainties when applying to invert the micro-scale petrophysical properties of the formations due to lack of constraints. Rock physics modeling links the micro-scale structures of the rocks to the macro-scale elastic properties and can work as effective constraints for the seismic methods. A number of rock physics models have been proposed for gas hydrate modeling, which addresses different mechanisms and applications. However, these models are generally not well classified, and it is confusing to determine the appropriate model for a specific study. Moreover, since the modeling usually involves multiple models and steps, it is difficult to determine the source of uncertainties. To solve these problems, we summarize the developed models/methods and make four classifications of the models according to the hydrate micro-scale morphology in sediments, the purpose of reservoir characterization, the stage of gas hydrate generation, and the lithology type of hosting sediments. Some sub-categories may overlap each other, but they have different priorities. Besides, we also analyze the priorities of different models, bring up the shortcomings, and explain the appropriate application scenarios. Moreover, by comparing the models, we summarize a general workflow of the modeling procedure, which includes rock matrix forming, dry rock frame generating, pore fluids mixing, and final fluid substitution in the rock frame. These procedures have been widely used in various gas hydrate modeling and have been confirmed to be effective. We also analyze the potential sources of uncertainties in each modeling step, which enables us to clearly recognize the potential uncertainties in the modeling. In the end, we explicate the general problems of the current models, including the influences of pressure and temperature, pore geometry, hydrate morphology, and rock structure change during gas hydrate dissociation and re-generation. We also point out that attenuation is also severely affected by gas hydrate in sediments and may work as an indicator to map gas hydrate concentration. Our work classifies rock physics models of gas hydrate into different categories, generalizes the modeling workflow, analyzes the modeling uncertainties and potential problems, which can facilitate the rock physics characterization of gas hydrate bearding sediments and provide hints for future studies.

Keywords: gas hydrate, rock physics model, modeling classification, hydrate morphology

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