Search results for: diabetes risk groups

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: Ji Jiazheng, Wang Jingrao, Jin Xin, Zhang Hong

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Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disease characterized by high blood sugar. A long-standing hyperglycemic state can lead to various tissue damage. Diabetic retinopathy is the most common and widely studied ocular complication and has become the leading cause of blindness in my country. At the same time, diabetes has profound clinically relevant effects on the cornea, leading to keratopathy and vision-threatening. The cornea is an avascular tissue and is sensitive to hyperglycemia, Keratopathy caused by diabetes is usually chronic, they are called diabetic keratopathy or diabetic neurotrophic keratopathy, leading to several diabetic corneal complications including delayed epithelial wound healing, recurrent erosions, neuropathy, loss of sensitivity. Corneal stem cell dysfunction in diabetic patients as an important influencing factor of diabetic keratopathy. The consequences of this condition are often underestimated. The limbus is located between the cornea and the sclera tissue. The limbal stroma consists of a series of radial elevations with fibrovascular centers known as palisades of Vogt (POV). Previous studies have shown that palisades of Vogt (POV), as the main site of limbal stem cells, plays an important role in the homeostasis of the corneal epithelium. Therefore, POV plays a vital role in the healing of corneal epithelial surgery and postoperative evaluation. IVCM can observe the condition of the corneal epithelium at the cellular level. It has profound significance and guidance for the evaluation of limbal and limbal stem cells. We have previously observed structural changes in POV in HSK and HZO patients on IVCM. At present, there have been reports involving limbal stem cell dysfunction in diabetic patients, but the specific pathogenesis is still unclear. However, there are no studies on POV morphological changes in patients with DM. Therefore, we performed statistics and compared the correlation between POV morphological changes and corneal epithelial basal cell density, corneal nerves, and length of disease in DM patients and normal humans using IVCM studies. At the same time, fundoscopy was used to observe the correlation between the thickness of RNFL and the thickness of GCC and POV in diabetic patients. And to observe the correlation between SVD, DVD and POV for research.

Keywords: confocal microscopy, fundus, limbal stem cells, diabetes

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Authors: Nunila Ferreira de Oliveira, Silvana Martins Mishima

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Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) prevalence, is increasing on the world, in Brazil is considered a public health problem. Treatment focuses on glycemic control depending primarily of lifestyle changes - not drug treatment (NDT), may involve drug therapy (DT) and requires continuous health monitoring. In Brazil this monitoring is performed by the Unified Health System (SUS) through Primary Health Care (PHC), which stimulate people with DM2 empowerment for care management. SUS was approved in 1988 and the PHC operationalization was strengthened with the creation of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in 1994. Our aim was to analyze the people with DM2 participation in front of the care management health monitoring in the FHS. Qualitative research was carried out through non-participant observation of attendance of 25 people with DM2 in the FHS and interviewed at home. Ethical guidelines were followed. It was found that people with DM2 only follow professionals’ recommendations that make sense according to their own conceptions of health/disease; most of them emphasize the importance of (DT) with little emphasis on the NDT, was found great difficulty in the NDT and lack of knowledge about the disease and care. As regards monitoring the FHS, were observed therapeutic practices based on the bio medical model, although the APS search for another care perspective; NDT is not systematically accompanied by the health team and takes place a few educational activities on the DM2 in the FHS, with low user adoption. The work of the FHS is done by multidisciplinary teams, but we see the need for greater participation of nurses in clinical-care follow-up of this population and may also act in adapting to the NDT. Finally we emphasize the need for professional practices that consider the difficulties to care management by people with DM2, especially because of the NDT. It is noticed that the measures recommended by the FHS professionals are not always developed by people with DM2. We must seek the empowerment of people with DM2 to manage the form of care associated with the FHS team, seeking to reduce the incidence of complications and higher quality of life.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, primary health care, nursing, management of care

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Authors: Orla Muldoon, Tamaryn Nicolson, Mike Quayle, Aisling O'Donnell

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Psychology most often considers the role of experience and behaviour in shaping health at the individual level. On the other hand epidemiology has long considered risk at the wider group or structural level. Here we use the social identity approach to integrate group-level risk with individual level behaviour. Using a social identity approach we demonstrate that group or macro-level factors impact implicitly and profoundly in everyday ways at the level of individuals, via social identities. We illustrate how identities related to race, gender and inequality intersect to affect HIV/AIDS risk and AIDS treatment behaviours; how social identity processes drive stigmatising consequences of HIV and AIDS, and promote positive and effective interventions. We conclude by arguing that the social identity approach offers the field an explanatory framework that conceptualizes how social and political forces intersect with individual identity and agency to affect human health.

Keywords: social identity approach, HIV/AIDS, Africa, HIV risk, race, gender

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

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Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Alwyn John Lim

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Philippines is one of the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters in the world. Almost every year different types of natural disasters occur in Philippines and destroy many lives and resources of people. Although it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of disasters influenced by natural causes, proper plan and management such as disaster risk reduction may minimize the damage cause by natural disasters. Based on literature review this paper will analyze literatures on public/community awareness and education in disaster risk reduction that would help promote a country wide public disaster awareness and education program in the Philippines. This will include best practices and importance of community disaster awareness and education. The paper will also tackle ICT tools that will help boost the process and effectiveness of community/public disaster awareness and education.

Keywords: community awareness, disaster education, disaster risk reduction, Philippines

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide

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Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

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Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

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Authors: Fereshteh Zarei, Mahdi Kohandel

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The aim of this study was investigate and compare plyometric and vibration exercises on muscle explosive power in non-athlete female students. For this purpose, 45 female students from non-athletes selected target then divided in to the three groups, two experimental and one control groups. From all groups were getting pre-tested. Experimental A did whole-body vibration exercises involved standing on one of machine vibration with frequency 30 Hz, amplitude 10 mm and in 5 different postures. Training for each position was 40 seconds with 60 seconds rest between it, and each season 5 seconds was added to duration of each body condition, until time up to 2 minutes for each postures. Exercises were done three times a week for 2 month. Experimental group B did plyometric exercises that include jumping, such as horizontal, vertical, and skipping .They included 10 times repeat for 5 set in each season. Intensity with increasing repetitions and sets were added. At this time, asked from control group that keep a daily activity and avoided strength training, explosive power and. after do exercises by groups we measured factors again. One-way analysis of variance and paired t statistical methods were used to analyze the data. There was significant difference in the amount of explosive power between the control and vibration groups (p=0/048) there was significant difference between the control and plyometric groups (019/0 = p). But between vibration and plyometric groups didn't observe significant difference in the amount of explosive power.

Keywords: vibration, plyometric, exercises, explosive power, non-athlete

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity is a low-grade inflammatory state. Childhood obesity is a multisystem disease, which is associated with a number of complications as well as potentially negative consequences. Gender is an important universal risk factor for many diseases. Hematological indices differ significantly by gender. This should be considered during the evaluation of obese children. The aim of this study is to detect hematologic indices that differ by gender in morbid obese (MO) children. A total of 134 MO children took part in this study. The parents filled an informed consent form and the approval from the Ethics Committee of Namik Kemal University was obtained. Subjects were divided into two groups based on their genders (64 females aged 10.2±3.1 years and 70 males aged 9.8±2.2 years; p ≥ 0.05). Waist-to-hip as well as head-to-neck ratios and body mass index (BMI) values were calculated. The children, whose WHO BMI-for age and sex percentile values were > 99 percentile, were defined as MO. Hematological parameters [haemoglobin, hematocrit, erythrocyte count, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration, red blood cell distribution width, leukocyte count, neutrophil %, lymphocyte %, monocyte %, eosinophil %, basophil %, platelet count, platelet distribution width, mean platelet volume] were determined by the automatic hematology analyzer. SPSS was used for statistical analyses. P ≤ 0.05 was the degree for statistical significance. The groups included children having mean±SD value of BMI as 26.9±3.4 kg/m² for males and 27.7±4.4 kg/m² for females (p ≥ 0.05). There was no significant difference between ages of females and males (p ≥ 0.05). Males had significantly increased waist-to-hip ratios (0.95±0.08 vs 0.91±0.08; p=0.005) and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration values (33.6±0.92 vs 33.1±0.83; p=0.001) compared to those of females. Significantly elevated neutrophil (4.69±1.59 vs 4.02±1.42; p=0.011) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios (1.70±0.71 vs 1.39±0.48; p=0.004) were detected in females. There was no statistically significant difference between groups in terms of C-reactive protein values (p ≥ 0.05). Adipose tissue plays important roles during the development of obesity and associated diseases such as metabolic syndrom and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). These diseases may cause changes in complete blood cell count parameters. These alterations are even more important during childhood. Significant gender effects on the changes of neutrophils, one of the white blood cell subsets, were observed. The findings of the study demonstrate the importance of considering gender in clinical studies. The males and females may have distinct leukocyte-trafficking profiles in inflammation. Female children had more circulating neutrophils, which may be the indicator of an increased risk of CVDs, than male children within this age range during the late stage of obesity. In recent years, females represent about half of deaths from CVDs; therefore, our findings may be the indicator of the increasing tendency of this risk in females starting from childhood.

Keywords: children, gender, morbid obesity, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio

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Authors: Ansarullah Omari

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This article examines the intercultural sensitivities of ethnic groups (Tajik and Pashtun) in Afghan society. Afghanistan is known as a multi-ethnic society due to its many ethnic groups. Intercultural sensitivities among ethnic groups have been the basis for the formation of conflicts, divisions and discrimination in this country for many years, whose destructive effects include civil wars, immigration and the lack of sustainability of Afghan governments. One of the ways to achieve unity and social interaction with peace and comfort in the multi-ethnic society of Afghanistan is to identify intercultural sensitivities between ethnic groups, especially two large ethnic groups (Tajik and Pashtun) and related factors through intercultural communication. Therefore, the research is conducted with the question of what factors have caused intercultural sensitivities between the Tajik and Pashtun people. And for its scientific understanding, the theory of intercultural sensitivities is used. The current research is participative research that is done with qualitative and quantitative methods. In the qualitative method, by conducting in-depth semi-structured interviews, the components of intercultural sensitivities of the Tajik and Pashtun ethnic groups are identified, and then in the quantitative method, these components are measured in a survey in the society. The expected findings are that the level of intercultural sensitivities among the general public is relatively low, but the most important factors that increase intercultural sensitivities between the Tajik and Pashtun ethnic groups are, firstly, politics, secondly, the self-praise of the Pashtun people and in the language issue.

Keywords: intercultural communication, intercultural sensitivity, Tajik people, Pashtun people, in-depth interview

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Authors: A. P. Attanayake, K. A. P. W. Jayatilaka, L. K. B. Mudduwa, C. Pathirana

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Triggering of β-cell regeneration is a recognized therapeutic strategy for the treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus. One such approach to foster restoration and regeneration of β-cells is from exogenous natural extracts. The aim of the present study was to investigate and compare the β-cell regenerative potentials of the extracts of Spondias pinnata (Linn. f.) Kurz, Coccinia grandis (L.) Voigt and Gmelina arborea Roxb. in alloxan induced diabetic rats. Wistar rats were divided in to six groups (n=6); healthy untreated rats, alloxan induced diabetic untreated rats (150 mg/kg, ip), diabetic rats receiving the extracts of S. pinnata (1.0 g/kg), C. grandis (0.75 g/kg), G. arobrea (1.00 g/kg) and diabetic rats receiving glibenclamide (0.5 mg/kg) for 30 days. The assessment of selected biochemical parameters, histopathology and immunohistochemistry in the pancreatic tissue were done on the 30th day. The reduction in the percentage of HbA1C was in the decreasing order of C. grandis (35%), G. arborea (31%) and S. pinnata (29%) in alloxan induced diabetic rats (p< 0.05). The concentration of serum fructosamine, insulin and C-peptide were decreased significantly in a decreasing order of C. grandis (30%, 72%, 51%), G. arborea (25%, 44%, 44%) and S. pinnata (27%, 34%, 24%) in alloxan induced diabetic rats (p < 0.05). The extent of β-cell regeneration was in the decreasing order of C. grandis, G. arborea, S. pinnata reflected through the increased percentage of insulin secreting β-cells in alloxan induced diabetic rats. The extract of C. grandis produced the highest degree of β-cell regeneration demonstrated through an increase in the number of islets and percentage of the insulin secreting β-cells (75%) in the pancreas of diabetic rats (p < 0.05). Further the C. grandis extract produced a significant increase in mean profile diameter in small (118%), average (10%), and large (13%) islets as compared with diabetic control rats respectively. However, statistically significant increase in the islet profile diameter was shown only in average (2%) and large (5%) islets in the G. arborea extract treated rats and large islets (5%) in S. pinnata extract treated diabetic rats (p < 0.05). The β-cell regeneration potency was in the decreasing order of C. grandis (0.75 g/kg), G. arborea (1.00 g/kg) and S. pinnata (1.00 g/kg) in alloxan induced diabetic rats. The three plant extracts may be useful as natural agents of triggering the β-cell regeneration in the management of type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Keywords: alloxan-induced diabetic rats, β-cell regeneration, histopathology, immunohistochemistry

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Authors: E. Sinem Ozdemir Salci, Nazmiye Gunes, Guven Ozkaya, Gulsen Goncagul, Kamil Seyrek Intas

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The aim of this study was to show the effects of progesterone and estrogen concentrations in ewes induced with different induction of parturition methods. Twenty-four healthy ewes (n=24) on 138th gestation day were randomly separated according to induction methods (group I (n=6), (0.09% NaCl), group II (n=6) (dexamethasone, 16 mg im.), group III (n=6) (aglepristone 5mg/kg sc.) and group IV (n=6) (aglepristone, 2,5 mg/kg sc.+dexamethasone 8 mg im.). The blood samples of the ewes were collected at 12 hours intervals from induction time to the postpartum 2nd day in order to determine progesterone and estradiol 17-ß levels. These hormone concentrations were determined by ELISA, and obtained results were statistically analyzed with Kruskal Wallis and Dunn tests between the groups, and Friedman and Wilcoxon test within the groups. The results pointed out that there was no significant difference within the groups in terms of estradiol 17-ß (group 1, p=0.508; group 2, p=0.054; group 3, p=0.672; group 4, p=0,170). And there was only a significant difference at 138th day (p=0,019) between groups II and IV (p=0,010). There was a significant difference in terms of progesterone concentration within group 1, 2 and 4 (p=0.000). And there was a significant difference at all times except 138th day between the groups (p<0.05). As a conclusion, the induction of parturition methods could be performed successfully. These methods have no effect on estradiol 17-ß concentration but also make changings on progesterone concentrations as in groups 3 and 4.

Keywords: ewe, estradiol 17-ß, induction of parturition, progesterone

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Authors: Winnie Kung, Xinhua Liu, Debbie Huang, Patricia Kim, Keon Kim, Xiaoran Wang, Lawrence Yang

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Considerable Asian Americans were exposed to the World Trade Center attack due to the proximity of the site to Chinatown and a sizeable number of South Asians working in the collapsed and damaged buildings nearby. Few studies focused on Asians in examining the disaster’s mental health impact, and even less longitudinal studies were reported beyond the first couple of years after the event. Based on the World Trade Center Health Registry, this study examined the trajectory of PTSD of individuals directly exposed to the attack from 2-3 to 5-6 years after the attack, comparing Asians against the non-Hispanic White group. Participants included 2,431 Asians and 31,455 Whites. Trajectories were delineated into the resilient, chronic, delayed-onset and remitted groups using PTSD checklist cut-off score at 44 at the 2 waves. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare the poorer trajectories against the resilient as a reference group, using predictors of baseline sociodemographic, exposure to the disaster, lower respiratory symptoms and previous depression/anxiety disorder diagnosis, and recruitment source as the control variable. Asians had significant lower socioeconomic status in terms of income, education and employment status compared to Whites. Over 3/4 of participants from both races were resilient, though slightly less for Asians than Whites (76.5% vs 79.8%). Asians had a higher proportion with chronic PTSD (8.6% vs 7.4%) and remission (5.9% vs 3.4%) than Whites. A considerable proportion of participants had delayed-onset in both races (9.1% Asians vs 9.4% Whites). The distribution of trajectories differed significantly by race (p<0.0001) with Asians faring poorer. For Asians, in the chronic vs resilient group, significant protective factors included age >65, annual household income >$50,000, and never married vs married/cohabiting; risk factors were direct disaster exposure, job loss due to 9/11, lost someone, and tangible loss; lower respiratory symptoms and previous mental disorder diagnoses. Similar protective and risk factors were noted for the delayed-onset group, except education being protective; and being an immigrant a risk. Between the 2 comparisons, the chronic group was more vulnerable than the delayed-onset as expected. It should also be noted that in both comparisons, Asians’ current employment status had no significant impact on their PTSD trajectory. Comparing between Asians against Whites, the direction of the relationships between the predictors and the PTSD trajectories were mostly the same, although more factors were significant for Whites than for Asians. A few factors showed significant racial difference: Higher risk for lower respiratory symptoms for Whites than Asians, higher risk for pre-9/11 mental disorder diagnosis for Asians than Whites, and immigrant a risk factor for the remitted vs resilient groups for Whites but not for Asians. Over 17% Asians still suffered from PTSD 5-6 years after the WTC attack signified its persistent impact which incurred substantial human, social and economic costs. The more disadvantaged socioeconomic status of Asians rendered them more vulnerable in their mental health trajectories relative to Whites. Together with their well-documented low tendency to seek mental health help, outreach effort to this population is needed to ensure follow-up treatment and prevention.

Keywords: PTSD, Asian Americans, World Trade Center Attack, racial differences

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Authors: Adam M. Yates, Julie E. Byles

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Hypertension has been identified as a prominent co-morbidity of obesity. To improve clinical intervention of hypertension, it is critical to identify metrics that most accurately reflect risk for increased morbidity. Two of the most relevant and accurate measures for increased risk of hypertension due to excess adipose tissue are Body Mass Index (BMI) and Waist-Height Ratio (WHtR). Previous research has examined these measures in cross-national and cross-ethnic studies, but has most often relied on secondary means such as meta-analysis to identify and evaluate the efficacy of individual body mass measures. In this study, we instead use cross-sectional analysis to assess the cross-ethnic discriminative power of BMI and WHtR to predict risk of hypertension. Using the WHO SAGE survey, which collected anthropometric and biometric data from respondents in six middle-income countries (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa), we implement logistic regression to examine the discriminative power of measured BMI and WHtR with a known population of hypertensive and non-hypertensive respondents. We control for gender and age to identify whether optimum cut-off points that are adequately sensitive as tests for risk of hypertension may be different between groups. We report results for OR, RR, and ROC curves for each of the six SAGE countries. As seen in existing literature, results demonstrate that both WHtR and BMI are significant predictors of hypertension (p < .01). For these six countries, we find that cut-off points for WHtR may be dependent upon gender, age and ethnicity. While an optimum omnibus cut-point for WHtR may be 0.55, results also suggest that the gender and age relationship with WHtR may warrant the development of individual cut-offs to optimize health outcomes. Trends through multiple countries show that the optimum cut-point for WHtR increases with age while the area under the curve (AUROC) decreases for both men and women. Comparison between BMI and WHtR indicate that BMI may remain more robust than WHtR. Implications for public health policy are discussed.

Keywords: hypertension, obesity, Waist-Height ratio, SAGE

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Authors: Hussam Ashwi, Magbool Oraiby, Ali Muyidi, Hamad Al-Oufi, Mohammed Al-Oufi, Adel Al-Juhani, Salman Al-Zemaa, Saeed Al-Shahrani, Amal Abuallah, Wedad Sherwani, Mohammed Alattas, Ibraheem Attafi

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Ethanol must be accurately identified and quantified to establish their use and contribution in criminal cases and forensic medicine. In some situations, it may be necessary to reanalyze an old specimen; therefore, it is essential to comprehend the effect of storage conditions and how long the result of a reanalyzed specimen can be reliable and reproducible. Additionally, ethanol can be produced via multiple in vivo and in vitro processes, particularly in diabetic patients, and the results can be affected by storage conditions and time. In order to distinguish between in vivo and in vitro alcohol generation in diabetes patient urine samples, various factors should be considered. This study identifies and quantifies ethanol and EtG in diabetic patients' urine samples stored in two different settings over time. Ethanol levels were determined using gas chromatography-headspace (GC-HS), and ethyl glucuronide (EtG) levels were determined using the immunoassay (RANDOX) technique. Ten urine specimens were collected and placed in a standard container. Each specimen was separated into two containers. The specimens were divided into two groups: those kept at room temperature (25 °C) and those kept cold (2-8 °C). Ethanol and EtG levels were determined serially over a two-week period. Initial results showed that none of the specimens tested positive for ethanol or EtG. At room temperature (15-25 °C), 7 and 14 days after the sample was taken, the average concentration of ethanol increased from 1.7 mg/dL to 2 mg/dL, and the average concentration of EtG increased from 108 ng/mL to 186 ng/mL. At 2–8 °C, the average ethanol concentration was 0.4 and 0.5 mg/dL, and the average EtG concentration was 138 and 124 ng/mL seven and fourteen days after the sample was collected, respectively. When ethanol and EtG levels were determined 14 days post collection, they were considerably lower than when stored at room temperature. A considerable increase in EtG concentrations (14-day range 0–186 ng/mL) is produced during room-temperature storage, although negative initial results for all specimens. Because EtG might be produced after a sampling collection, it is not a reliable indicator of recent alcohol consumption. Given the possibility of misleading EtG results due to in vitro EtG production in the urine of diabetic patients.

Keywords: ethyl glucuronide, ethanol, forensic toxicology, diabetic

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Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

Abstract:

Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

Abstract:

The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

Abstract:

It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

Abstract:

Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: N. Uchegbu Nneka

Abstract:

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of the antioxidant activity of germinated African Yam Bean (AYB) on oxidative stress markers in alloxan-induced diabetic rat. Rats were randomized into three groups; control, diabetic and germinated AYB–treated diabetic rats. The Total phenol and flavonoid content and DPPH radical scavenging activity before and after germination were investigated. The glucose level, lipid peroxidation and reduced glutathione of the animals were also determined using the standard technique for four weeks. Germination increased the total phenol, flavonoid and antioxidant activity of AYB extract by 19.14%, 32.28%, and 57.25% respectively. The diabetic rats placed on germinated AYB diet had a significant decrease in the blood glucose and lipid peroxidation with a corresponding increase in glutathione (p<0.05). These results demonstrate that consumption of germinated AYB can be a good dietary supplement in inhibiting hyperglycemia/hyperlipidemia and the prevention of diabetic complication associated with oxidative stress.

Keywords: African yam bean, antioxidant, diabetes, total phenol

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

Abstract:

Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Hairin Taha, Aditya Arya, M. A. Hapipah, A. M. Mustafa

Abstract:

Plants have been an important source of medicine since ancient times. Pseuduvaria monticola is a rare montane forest species from the Annonaceae family. Traditionally, the plant was used to cure symptoms of fever, inflammation, stomach-ache and also to reduce the elevated levels of blood glucose. Scientifically, we have evaluated the antidiabetic potential of the Pseuduvaria monticola bark methanolic extract on certain in vitro cell based assays, followed by in vivo study. Results from in vitro models displayed PMm upregulated glucose uptake and insulin secretion in mouse pancreatic β-cells. In vivo study demonstrated the PMm down-regulated hyperglycaemia, oxidative stress and elevated levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in type 2 diabetic rat models. Altogether, the study revealed that Pseuduvaria monticola might be used as a potential candidate for the management of type 2 diabetes and its related complications.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, Pseuduvaria monticola, insulin secretion, glucose uptake

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

Abstract:

Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 541