Search results for: initiation period

Authors: Tomasz Kosicki

Abstract:

The subject of the presentation will be the administrative and legal instruments of disciplining maintenance debtors adopted by the Polish legislator, the substantive legal bases of which were adopted in the Act of 7 September 2007 on assistance to persons entitled to maintenance (Journal of Laws of 2022, item 1205). These provisions are complemented by procedural regulations resulting from the Act of 14 June 1960 - Code of Administrative Procedure (Journal of Laws of 2021, item 735, as amended). The first part of the paper will focus on the administrative proceedings regarding the recognition of the debtor as evading maintenance obligations. The initiation of this procedure ex officio is preceded by a number of actions by public administration bodies, including Conducting a maintenance interview with the debtor, during which his health and professional situation and the reasons for non-payment of maintenance are determined, Professional activation in a situation where the lack of payment of maintenance results from the lack of employment. The reasons for initiating the above-mentioned administrative proceedings ex officio will be indicated, taking into account the current views of the judicial decisions. The second part of the paper will focus on the instrument of retaining the driving license of the debtor, who was previously found to be evading maintenance. The author points out that the detention of the driving license is one of the types of administrative sanctions of a very severe nature. Doubts of a constitutional nature will also be highlighted, as well as those concerning the effectiveness of this legal instrument and the protection of the debtor's rights. The thesis will be presented that the administrative procedure for the retention of a driving license does not fulfill its role and especially does not affect the collection of maintenance obligations from debtors. All the considerations will be based on the current and most representative views of the literature on the subject and the jurisprudence of Polish administrative courts.

Keywords: maintenance debtor, administrative proceedings, detention of driving license, administrative sanction, polish administrative law, public administration

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Authors: Dileep K. Verma, Sunil K. Lal

Abstract:

Influenza still remains one of the most challenging diseases posing significant threat to public health causing seasonal epidemics and pandemics. Previous studies suggest that influenza hemagglutinin is essential for viral attachment to host sialic acid receptors and concentrate in lipid rafts for efficient viral fusion. Studies also reported selective nature of Influenza virus to utilize rafts micro-domain for efficient virus assembly and budding. However, the detailed mechanism of Influenza A Virus (IAV) binding to host cell membrane and entry inside the host remains elusive. In the present study, we investigated if host membrane lipid rafts play any significant role in early life cycle events of influenza A virus. Role of host lipid rafts was studied using raft disruption method by extraction of cholesterol and Methyl-β-Cyclodextrin was used to remove membrane cholesterol. We observed co-localization of Influenza A Virus to lipid rafts by visualization of known lipid raft marker GM1 on host cell membrane. Co-localization suggest direct involvement of these micro-domain in initiation of IAV life cycle. We found significant reduction in influenza A virus adsorption in raft disrupted target host cells indicating poor binding and attachment in absence of coherent membrane rafts. Taken together, the results of present study provide evidence for critical involvement of host lipid rafts and its constituents in adsorption process of Influenza A Virus and suggests crucial involvement in other early events of IAV life cycle. The present study opens a new domain to study influenza virus-host interaction and to combat flu at the very early steps of viral life cycle.

Keywords: lipid raft, adsorption, cholesterol, methyl-β-cyclodextrin, GM1

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Authors: Choppala Pratheek, Vineet Ahuja

Abstract:

Background: Crohn's disease (CD) recurrence following surgery is a common challenge, and current detection methods rely on risk factors identified in Western populations. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and rates of postoperative CD recurrence in a tuberculosis-endemic region like India. Retrospective data was collected from a structured database from a specialty IBD clinic by reviewing case files from January 2005 to December 2021. Inclusion criteria involved CD patients diagnosed based on the ECCO-ESGAR consensus guidelines, who had undergone at least one intestinal resection and had a minimum follow-up period of one year at the IBD clinic. Results: A total of 90 patients were followed up for a median period of 45 months (IQR, 20.75 - 72.00). Out of the 90 patients, 61 received ATT prior to surgery, with a mean delay in diagnosis of 2.5 years, although statistically non-significant (P=0.078). Clinical recurrence occurred in 50% of patients, with the cumulative rate increasing from 13.3% at one year to 40% at three years. Among 63 patients who underwent endoscopy, 65.7% showed evidence of endoscopic recurrence, with the cumulative rate increasing from 31.7% at one year to 55.5% at four years. Smoking was identified as a significant risk factor for early endoscopic recurrence (P=0.001) by Cox regression analysis, but no other risk factors were identified. Initiating post-operative medications prior to clinical recurrence delayed its onset (P=0.004). Subgroup analysis indicated that endoscopic monitoring aided in the early identification of recurrence (P=0.001). The findings contribute to enhancing post-operative CD management strategies in such regions where the disease burden is escalating.

Keywords: crohns, post operative, tuberculosis-endemic, risk factors

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Authors: Noe Brice Nkoumbou Kaptchouang, Pierre-Guy Vincent, Yann Monerie

Abstract:

The present work addresses the modelling and the simulation of crack initiation and propagation in ductile materials which failed by void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. One of the current research frameworks on crack propagation is the use of cohesive-volumetric approach where the crack growth is modelled as a decohesion of two surfaces in a continuum material. In this framework, the material behavior is characterized by two constitutive relations, the volumetric constitutive law relating stress and strain, and a traction-separation law across a two-dimensional surface embedded in the three-dimensional continuum. Several cohesive models have been proposed for the simulation of crack growth in brittle materials. On the other hand, the application of cohesive models in modelling crack growth in ductile material is still a relatively open field. One idea developed in the literature is to identify the traction separation for ductile material based on the behavior of a continuously-deforming unit cell failing by void growth and coalescence. Following this method, the present study proposed a semi-analytical cohesive model for ductile material based on a micromechanical approach. The strain localization band prior to ductile failure is modelled as a cohesive band, and the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman plasticity model (GTN) is used to model the behavior of the cohesive band and derived a corresponding traction separation law. The numerical implementation of the model is realized using the non-smooth contact method (NSCD) where cohesive models are introduced as mixed boundary conditions between each volumetric finite element. The present approach is applied to the simulation of crack growth in nuclear ferritic steel. The model provides an alternative way to simulate crack propagation using the numerical efficiency of cohesive model with a traction separation law directly derived from porous continuous model.

Keywords: ductile failure, cohesive model, GTN model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Muhammad Iqbal

Abstract:

The changes in the prices of the agriculture commodities combined with changes in population and agriculture productivity affect farmers’ profitability and standard of living. This study intends to estimate various domestic terms of trade for agriculture sector and also to assess the volatility in the standard of living and profitability of farmers. The terms of trade has been estimated for Pakistan and its provinces using producer prices indices, consumer price indices, input prices indices and quantity indices using the data for the period 1990-91 to 2008-09. The domestic terms of trade of agriculture sector has been improved in terms of both approaches i.e. the ratio of producer prices indices to consumer prices indices and the real per capita income approach. However, the cross province estimates indicated that the terms of trade also improved for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab while Balochistan’s domestic terms of trade deteriorated drastically. In other words the standard of living of the farmers in Pakistan and its provinces except Balochistan improved. Using the input prices, the domestic terms of trade deteriorated for Pakistan as a whole and its provinces as well. This also explores that as a whole the profitability of the farmers reduced during the study period. The farmers pay more prices for inputs as compared to they receive for their produce. This further indicates that the poverty at the gross root level has been increased. Further, summing, the standard of living of the farmers improved but their profitability reduced, which indicates that the farmers do not completely rely on the farm income but also utilize some other sources of income for their livelihood. The study supports to give subsidies on farm inputs so as to improve the profitability of the farmers.

Keywords: agricultural terms of trade, farmers’ profitability, farmers’ standard of living, consumer and producer price indices, quantity indices

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Authors: Beate Englich, Linda Schlittenbauer, Christiane Pfeifer, Isabel Kratochvil, Michael Borte, Gabriele I. Stangl, Martin von Bergen, Thorsten Reemtsma, Irina Lehmann, Kristin M. Junge

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The worldwide production of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDC) has risen dramatically over the last decades, as so has the prevalence for obesity. Many EDCs are believed to contribute to this obesity epidemic, by enhancing adipogenesis or disrupting relevant metabolism. This effect is most tremendous in the early prenatal period when priming effects find a highly vulnerable time window. Therefore, we investigate the impact of parabens on childhood overweight development and adipogenesis in general. Parabens are ester of 4-hydroxy-benzoic acid and part of many cosmetic products or food packing. Therefore, ubiquitous exposure can be found in the westernized world, with exposure already starting during the sensitive prenatal period. We assessed maternal cosmetic product consumption, prenatal paraben exposure and infant BMI z-scores in the prospective German LINA cohort. In detail, maternal urinary concentrations (34 weeks of gestation) of methyl paraben (MeP), ethyl paraben (EtP), n-propyl paraben (PrP) and n-butyl paraben (BuP) were quantified using UPLC-MS/MS. Body weight and height of their children was assessed during annual clinical visits. Further, we investigated the direct influence of those parabens on adipogenesis in-vitro using a human mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) differentiation assay to mimic a prenatal exposure scenario. MSC were exposed to 0.1 – 50 µM paraben during the entire differentiation period. Differentiation outcome was monitored by impedance spectrometry, real-time PCR and triglyceride staining. We found that maternal cosmetic product consumption was highly correlated with urinary paraben concentrations at pregnancy. Further, prenatal paraben exposure was linked to higher BMI Z-scores in children. Our in-vitro analysis revealed that especially the long chained paraben BuP stimulates adipogenesis by increasing the expression of adipocyte specific genes (PPARγ, ADIPOQ, LPL, etc.) and triglyceride storage. Moreover, we found that adiponectin secretion is increased whereas leptin secretion is reduced under BuP exposure in-vitro. Further mechanistic analysis for receptor binding and activation of PPARγ and other key players in adipogenesis are currently in process. We conclude that maternal cosmetic product consumption is linked to prenatal paraben exposure of children and contributes to the development of infant overweight development by triggering key pathways of adipogenesis.

Keywords: adipogenesis, endocrine disruptors, paraben, prenatal exposure

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Authors: Rania S. Hussein

Abstract:

Background: This study aims to determine the evolution of service provision by Egyptian travel sites and how these services change in terms of their level of sophistication over the period of the study which is ten years. To the author’s best knowledge, this is the first longitudinal study that focuses on an extended time frame of ten years. Additionally, the study attempts to determine the popularity of these websites through the number of links to these sites. Links maybe viewed as the equivalent of a referral or word of mouth but in an online context. Both popularity and the nature of the services provided by these websites are used to determine the traffic on these sites. In examining the nature of services provided, the website itself is viewed as an overall service offering that is composed of different travel products and services. Method: This study uses content analysis in the form of a small scale survey done on 30 Egyptian travel agents’ websites to examine whether Egyptian travel websites are static or dynamic in terms of the services that they provide and whether they provide simple or sophisticated travel services. To determine the level of sophistication of these travel sites, the nature and composition of products and services offered by these sites were first examined. A framework adapted from Kotler (1997) 'Five levels of a product' was used. The target group for this study consists of companies that do inbound tourism. Four rounds of data collection were conducted over a period of 10 years. Two rounds of data collection were made in 2004 and two rounds were made in 2014. Data from the travel agents’ sites were collected over a two weeks period in each of the four rounds. Besides collecting data on features of websites, data was also collected on the popularity of these websites through a software program called Alexa that showed the traffic rank and number of links of each site. Regression analysis was used to test the effect of links and services on websites as independent variables on traffic as the dependent variable of this study. Findings: Results indicate that as companies moved from having simple websites with basic travel information to being more interactive, the number of visitors illustrated by traffic and the popularity of those sites increase as shown by the number of links. Results also show that travel companies use the web much more for promotion rather than for distribution since most travel agents are using it basically for information provision. The results of this content analysis study taps on an unexplored area and provide useful insights for marketers on how they can generate more traffic to their websites by focusing on developing a distinctive content on these sites and also by focusing on the visibility of their sites thus enhancing the popularity or links to their sites.

Keywords: levels of a product, popularity, travel, website evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Tomasz Kosicki

Abstract:

The subject of the presentation will be the administrative and legal instruments of disciplining maintenance debtors adopted by the Polish legislator, the substantive legal bases of which were adopted in the Act of 7 September 2007 on assistance to persons entitled to maintenance (Journal of Laws of 2022, item 1205). These provisions are complemented by procedural regulations resulting from the Act of 14 June 1960 - Code of Administrative Procedure (Journal of Laws of 2021, item 735, as amended). The first part of the paper will focus on the administrative proceedings regarding the recognition of the debtor as evading maintenance obligations. The initiation of this procedure ex officio is preceded by a number of actions by public administration bodies, including Conducting a maintenance interview with the debtor, during which his health and professional situation and the reasons for non-payment of maintenance are determined, Professional activation in a situation where the lack of payment of maintenance results from the lack of employment. The reasons for initiating the above-mentioned administrative proceedings ex officio will be indicated, taking into account the current views of the judicial decisions. The second part of the paper will focus on the instrument of retaining the driving license of the debtor, who was previously found to be evading maintenance. The author points out that the detention of the driving license is one of the types of administrative sanctions of a very severe nature. Doubts of a constitutional nature will also be highlighted, as well as those concerning the effectiveness of this legal instrument and the protection of the debtor's rights. The thesis will be presented that the administrative procedure for the retention of a driving license does not fulfill its role and especially does not affect the collection of maintenance obligations from debtors. All the considerations will be based on the current and most representative views of the literature on the subject and the jurisprudence of Polish administrative courts.

Keywords: maintenance debtor, administrative proceedings, detention of driving license, administrative sanction, polish administrative law, public administration

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Authors: G. H. B. Dilhari, A. A. D. T. Saparamadu

Abstract:

The coir is one of the by-products of the coconut and the coir industry can be identified as one of the traditional industries in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is one of the prominent countries for the coir production. Due to the labour insensitiveness, the labourers are the significant factor in the coir production process. The study has analyzed the determinants and its impact on income of the household level coir yarn labourers. The study was conducted in the Kumarakanda Grama Niladhari division, Galle, Sri Lanka. Simple random sampling was used to generate the sample of 100 household level coir yarn labourers and structured questionnaire, personal interviews and discussion were performed to gather the required data. The obtained data were statistically analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test were carried out. The findings revealed that the household level coir yarn industry is dominated by the female workers and fewer amounts of workers have engaged this industry as the main occupation. In addition to that, elderly participation of the industry is greater than younger participation and most of them engaged as an extra income source. Level of education, the methods of engagement, satisfaction, labour’s children employment in the coir industry, support from the government, method of government support, working hours per day, employed as a main job, no of completed units per day, suffering any job related diseases and type of the diseases were related with income level of household level coir yarn labourers. The recommendations were formulated in respect to these problems including technological transformation for coir yarn production, strengthening of the raw material base and regulating the raw material supply, introduction of new technologies, markets and training programs, the establishment of the labourers association, the initiation of micro credit schemes, better consideration about the job oriented diseases.

Keywords: coir, coir yarn labourers, income, Galle

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Authors: Ramesh Chand Chauhan, Sanjay Kumar Rai, Shashi kant, Rakesh Lodha, Nand Kumar

Abstract:

Background: With a better understanding of HIV pathogenesis and availability of antiretroviral therapy more children are growing and entering in teenage group; informing children of their own HIV status has become an important aspect of long-term disease management. There is little evidence of how and when this type of disclosure takes place in a resource-limited setting. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from June 2010 to May 2011 among a dyads of 156 HIV-infected children and their caregivers, those were visiting pediatric clinic at a tertiary care hospital in Delhi, India. The study protocol was approved by the Institute Ethics Committee. After taking written informed consent; pretested structured questionnaire was administered to caregivers during routine clinic visits. Information regarding socio-demographic characteristics, awareness of HIV infection status among children and their perception regarding disclosure was collected. Mean and frequencies were calculated and chi-square and logistic regression test were applied. Results: The mean age of children was 8.4 ±3.45 years. Among them 73.7% were male and 39.1% were orphans. Among 156 enrolled children, 74.4% (n=116) were of ≥ 6 years and were assessed for disclosure. Only 18.1% (n=21) children had been informed of their HIV status. Of those under 9 years, 6.4% knew their status, whereas 18.4% of 9-11 years and 35.5% of 12-14 years children knew they had HIV. Awareness among males (23.3%) was higher than females (3.3%). Both age and sex of child were significantly (p<0.01) associated with disclosure status. Other factors favoring disclosure were orphan-hood, non-perinatal mode of transmission (OR = 4.32; 95% CI 1.01-7.12), ART initiation (OR = 4.21; 95% CI 1.03-6.98), and caregiver educated beyond primary level (OR = 1.89; 95% CI 1.03-3.26). Repeated enquiry regarding the visit to clinic was the most common reason (66.6%) for disclosure. In 52.4% children disclosure was done with the involvement of other family members. 82.5% caregivers felt the age of > 10 years is appropriate for disclosing the HIV infection status to the child. Conclusion: Detailed guidelines on disclosure are required focusing on children of school-going age with perinatal infection who are not on ART and with caregivers of low educational status.

Keywords: HIV, children, India, disclosure

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Authors: Sibel Ecemis Kilic, Neslihan Karatas

Abstract:

The concept of urban renewal came up with interventions to the urban areas which have social and economic problems aimed at gaining the city. In Turkey after 2000, urban renewal has become a frequent topic on the agenda; regulations have been developed in this regard. Urban renewal project would be a focal point for the formation of the city in the near future. The future of the city is directly related to how to achieve these applications. Urban renewal policies will be decisive in the positive or negative development of the potential of the existing renewal process. Urban renewal is seen as a refreshing new planned action for reshaping unplanned and uncontrolled growth of big cities/metropolitan areas. In this context, Izmir is one of the largest metropolitan areas which came on the agenda of urban renewal application in the recent period. Izmir, which is the third largest city of Turkey, is an important trade and port city. The city, located west of Turkey, is a gate opening to Europe. In particular, continued its development rapidly after the Republican Period, it has become an important big city today. Assessment of the current situation shows that the majority of existing residential areas was formed with squatters and unplanned settlements in Izmir city center. Therefore, an important part of these areas have significant problems in terms of the quality of life, safety, and environmental quality. Legal residential areas which have had developed before 2000 is seen inadequate security in terms of an earthquake. In this study, the central policies in Turkey and local policies in İzmir about urban renewal will be considered. In addition, urban renewal projects that are being implemented or applied in Izmir were discussed and suggestions will be developed in accordance with this policy.

Keywords: urban transformation, Izmir, urban planning, urban renewal

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Authors: Nur Hidayah Kaz Abdul Aziz, Norhalida Hashim, Zurina Hassan

Abstract:

Peripartum period is a time where women are vulnerable to depression, and stress may further increase the risk of its occurrence. Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) in the treatment of postpartum depression is a common practice. Comparison of antidepressant treatment, however, is rarely studied between gestated and nulliparous animals exposed to stress. This study was aimed to investigate the effect of parity and stress, as well as fluoxetine (an SSRI) treatment after stress exposure on the behavior of rats. Gestating and nulliparous Sprague Dawley rats were either subjected to chronic stressors or left undisturbed throughout the gestation period. After parturition, all stressors were stopped and some of the stressed rats were treated with fluoxetine (10mg/kg). Hence, the final groups formed were: 1. Non-stressed nulliparous rats, 2. Non-stressed dams, 3. Stressed nulliparous rats, 4. Stressed dams, 5. Fluoxetine-treated stressed nulliparous rats, and 6. Fluoxetine-treated stressed dams. Rats were tested in open field test (OFT), novel object recognition test (NOR) and forced swim test (FST) after weaning of pups. Gestational stress significantly reduced the locomotor activity of rats in OFT (p<0.05), while fluoxetine significantly increased the activity in nulliparous rats (p<0.001) but not the dams. While no differences were observed in NOR, stress and parity inhibited the rats from performing swimming behavior in FST. However, climbing and immobile behaviors in FST were found to have no significant differences, although there is a tendency of effect of treatment for immobility parameter (p=0.06) where fluoxetine-treated stressed dams were being the least immobile. In conclusion, the effects of parity and stress, as well as fluoxetine treatment, depended on the type of behavioral test performed.

Keywords: stress, parity, SSRI, behavioral tests

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Authors: Berhanu Terfa, Nengcheng C.

Abstract:

The study deals with the analysis of urban expansion and land transformation of Hawass City using remote sensing data and landscape metrics during last three decades (1987–2017). Remote sensing data from Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., TM (1987), TM (1995), ETM+ (2005) and OLI (2017) were used to examine the urban expansion, growth types, and spatial isolation within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the trends of built-up growth in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. Landscape metrics and built-up density were employed to analyze the pattern, process and overall growth status. The area under investigation was divided into concentric circles with a consecutive circle of 1 km incremental radius from the central pixel (Central Business District) for analysis. The result exhibited that the built-up area had increased by 541.32% between 1987 and 2017and an extension growth types (more than 67 %) was observed. The major growth took place in north-west direction followed by north direction in haphazard manner during 1987–1995 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in south and southwest direction during 1995–2017 period. Land scape metrics result revealed that the of urban patches density, total edge and edge density increased, while mean nearest neighbors’ distance decreased showing the tendency of sprawl.

Keywords: landscape metrics, spatial patterns, remote sensing, multi-temporal, urban sprawl

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Authors: Mohamed Saeed Ahmed Salman

Abstract:

This research aims to study the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom era, and revolves around many basic ideas used by the ancient Egyptian to protect his graves from thieves, which included architectural characteristics, which gave it importance only others. The most important of which was the choice of the place of the grave, which chose a kohl place in the desert to protect the graves, which is the valley of kings, and whether the choice of that place had an impact in protecting the grave or not, in addition to other elements followed in the architectural planning, which was in the valley of kings. The multiplicity of the tomb, the construction of the well chamber to deceive the thieves by the end of the graves suddenly, the construction of the wells of the tombs, which contained the burial chamber at the bottom of the main well and the effect of all these factors on the graves, and this shows the importance of the graves to the ancient Egyptian and his belief in resurrection and immortality. The Egyptian resorted to the elements of protection and was a religious worker by The protector gods and special texts to protect the deceased from any danger to protect the tomb. As for the human factor of securing the tomb through human guards (police) and security teams based on the guard and the words indicating the protection and the guard teams and the teams of the majai. The most important developments that arose on the cemetery from Tamit entrance, corridors, chambers, burial chamber and coffin, and the use of sand to close the well after from one cemetery to another and from time to time where it was built in the late period inside the temple campus to be under the attention of the priests and their protection, as the study dealt with an analytical study For the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom period.

Keywords: Egyptian kingdom, ancient Egyptian, securing graves, Means of securing graves, Egypt, archaeology

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Authors: Martha Matashu

Abstract:

This study examined corporate governance and economic growth trends in Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries. The need for corporate governance arise from the fact that the day to day running of the business is done by management who in accordance with the neoclassical theory and agency theory have inborn tendencies to use the resources of the company to their advantage. This prevails against a background where the endogenous economic growth theory hold the assumption that economic growth is an outcome of the overall performance of all companies within an economy. This suggest that corporate governance at firm level determine economic growth through its impact on the overall performance. Nevertheless, insight into literature suggest that efforts to promote corporate governance in countries across SSA since the 1980s to date have not yet yielded desired outcomes. The board responsibilities, shareholder rights, disclosure and transparency, protection of minority shareholder, and liability of directors were thus used as proxies of corporate governance because these are believed to be mechanisms that are believed to enhance company performance their effect on enhancing accountability and transparency. Using panel data techniques, corporate governance and economic growth data for 29 SSA countries from the period of 2008 to 2019 was analysed. The findings revealed declining economic growth trend despite an increase in corporate governance aspects such as director liability, shareholders’ rights, and protection of minority shareholder in SSA countries. These findings are in contradiction to the popularly held theoretical principles of economic growth and corporate governance. The study reached the conclusion thata nonlinearrelationship exists between corporate governance and economic growth within the selectedSSA countries during the period under investigation. This study thus recommends that measures should be taken to create conditions for corporate governance that would bolster significant positive contributions to economic growth in the region.

Keywords: corporate governance, economic growth, sub saharan Africa, agency theory, endogenous theory

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Authors: S. Kealy, J. Louys, S. O’Connor

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The island archipelago that stretches between the continents of Sunda (Southeast Asia) and Sahul (Australia - New Guinea) and comprising much of modern-day Indonesia as well as Timor-Leste, represents the biogeographic region of Wallacea. The islands of Wallaea are significant archaeologically as they have never been connected to the mainlands of either Sunda or Sahul, and thus the colonization by early modern humans of these islands and subsequently Australia and New Guinea, would have necessitated some form of water crossings. Accurate palaeogeographic reconstructions of the Wallacean Archipelago for this time are important not only for modeling likely routes of colonization but also for reconstructing likely landscapes and hence resources available to the first colonists. Here we present five digital reconstructions of coastal outlines of Wallacea and Sahul (Australia and New Guinea) for the periods 65, 60, 55, 50, and 45,000 years ago using the latest bathometric chart and a sea-level model that is adjusted to account for the average uplift rate known from Wallacea. This data was also used to reconstructed island areal extent as well as topography for each time period. These reconstructions allowed us to determine the distance from the coast and relative elevation of the earliest archaeological sites for each island where such records exist. This enabled us to approximate how much effort exploitation of coastal resources would have taken for early colonists, and how important such resources were. These reconstructions also allowed us to estimate visibility for each island in the archipelago, and to model how intervisible each island was during the period of likely human colonisation. We demonstrate how these models provide archaeologists with an important basis for visualising this ancient landscape and interpreting how it was originally viewed, traversed and exploited by its earliest modern human inhabitants.

Keywords: Wallacea, palaeogeographic reconstructions, islands, intervisibility

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Authors: Zahra khaksari, Mahboobeh Mehrabi

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One of the biggest health problems in communities, suicide is now one of the top ten causes of death in the world. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors of suicide attempt in Minab city over two years. This was a descriptive and cross-sectional study. Subjects of this study were cases who admitted in Hazrat Abolfazl hospital of minab city over two years Since the beginning of 1389 to end of 1390. During this period,their cases were reviewed. To analyze data, descriptive statistics was applied. During this two-year period, 275 patients who had attempted suicide, of which 65 percent are female and most of them were 15-24 years. 60% of them were single and 70 % of rural areas. 51% of suicides in 1390 and most of the suicide attempts occurred at a rate of 37 percent in summer. and the most common way of attempting suicide was medication poisoning (74%). The suicide rate leading to death was 1.5% The chi-square test showes that there were significant relationship between suicide by gender and residence status. This means that more women are committing suicide of rural areas.based on The chi-square test there were significant relation between the gender and method, gender and the result of suicide and means that more women than men commit suicide with the use of drugs. Males were more successful suicide. who had attempted with organophosphates and hanging were more successful in suicide. The finding of the current study showed that most of the suicide victims were female ,rural deweller,14-24 years old,single, serious attention must be paid to the problems of this group. It also extends the field of education professionals and health centers, and psychological therapy that focuses specifically on this topic.

Keywords: attempt to suicide, minab, risk factors, suicide

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Authors: Mohammad Khalid, Mariya Munir, Jacelyn Rice Boyaue

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Highways are considered a major source of pollution to storm-water, and its runoff can introduce various contaminants, including nutrients, Indicator bacteria, heavy metals, chloride, and phosphorus compounds, which can have negative impacts on receiving waters. This study assessed the ability of biochar for contaminants removal and to improve the water holding capacity of soil biochar mixture. For this, ten commercially available biochar has been strategically selected. Lab scale batch testing was done at 3% and 6% by the weight of the soil to find the preliminary estimate of contaminants removal along with hydraulic conductivity and water retention capacity. Furthermore, from the above-conducted studies, six best performing candidate and an application rate of 6% has been selected for the column studies. Soil biochar mixture was filled in 7.62 cm assembled columns up to a fixed height of 76.2 cm based on hydraulic conductivity. A total of eight column experiments have been conducted for nutrient, heavy metal, and indicator bacteria analysis over a period of one year, which includes a drying as well as a deicing period. The saturated hydraulic conductivity was greatly improved, which is attributed to the high porosity of the biochar soil mixture. Initial data from the column testing shows that biochar may have the ability to significantly remove nutrients, indicator bacteria, and heavy metals. The overall study demonstrates that biochar could be efficiently applied with clay soil to improve the soil's hydraulic characteristics as well as remove the pollutants from the stormwater runoff.

Keywords: biochar, nutrients, indicator bacteria, storm-water treatment, sustainability

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Authors: Piotr Romaniuk, Krzysztof Kaczmarek, Adam Szromek

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Background: A number of approaches to assess the performance of health system have been proposed so far. Nonetheless, they lack a consensus regarding the key components of assessment procedure and criteria of evaluation. The WHO and OECD have developed methods of assessing health system to counteract the underlying issues, but they are not free of controversies and did not manage to produce a commonly accepted consensus. The aim of the study: On the basis of WHO and OECD approaches we decided to develop own methodology to assess the performance of health systems in Central and Eastern European countries. We have applied the method to compare the effects of health systems reforms in 20 countries of the region, in order to evaluate the dynamic of changes in terms of health system outcomes.Methods: Data was collected from a 25-year time period after the fall of communism, subsetted into different post-reform stages. Datasets collected from individual countries underwent one-, two- or multi-dimensional statistical analyses, and the Synthetic Measure of health system Outcomes (SMO) was calculated, on the basis of the method of zeroed unitarization. A map of dynamics of changes over time across the region was constructed. Results: When making a comparative analysis of the tested group in terms of the average SMO value throughout the analyzed period, we noticed some differences, although the gaps between individual countries were small. The countries with the highest SMO were the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia, while the lowest was in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Georgia, Albania, and Armenia. Countries differ in terms of the range of SMO value changes throughout the analyzed period. The dynamics of change is high in the case of Estonia and Latvia, moderate in the case of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Croatia, Russia and Moldova, and small when it comes to Belarus, Ukraine, Macedonia, Lithuania, and Georgia. This information reveals fluctuation dynamics of the measured value in time, yet it does not necessarily mean that in such a dynamic range an improvement appears in a given country. In reality, some of the countries moved from on the scale with different effects. Albania decreased the level of health system outcomes while Armenia and Georgia made progress, but lost distance to leaders in the region. On the other hand, Latvia and Estonia showed the most dynamic progress in improving the outcomes. Conclusions: Countries that have decided to implement comprehensive health reform have achieved a positive result in terms of further improvements in health system efficiency levels. Besides, a higher level of efficiency during the initial transition period generally positively determined the subsequent value of the efficiency index value, but not the dynamics of change. The paths of health system outcomes improvement are highly diverse between different countries. The instrument we propose constitutes a useful tool to evaluate the effectiveness of reform processes in post-communist countries, but more studies are needed to identify factors that may determine results obtained by individual countries, as well as to eliminate the limitations of methodology we applied.

Keywords: health system outcomes, health reforms, health system assessment, health system evaluation

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Authors: Vijay S. Katta, Vinod Kushwah, Rudraksh Tiwari, Mulayam Singh Gaur, Priti Dimri, Ashok Kumar Sharma

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The formation process of seismic activities because of abrupt slip on faults, tectonic plate moments due to accumulated stress in the Earth’s crust. The prediction of seismic activity is a very challenging task. We have studied the changes in surface latent heat temperatures which are observed prior to significant earthquakes have been investigated and could be considered for short term earthquake prediction. We analyzed the surface latent heat temperature (SLHT) variation for inland earthquakes occurred in Chamba, Himachal Pradesh (32.5 N, 76.1E, M-4.5, depth-5km) nearby the main boundary fault region, the data of SLHT have been taken from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In this analysis, we have calculated daily variations with surface latent heat temperature (0C) in the range area 1⁰x1⁰ (~120/KM²) with the pixel covering epicenter of earthquake at the center for a three months period prior to and after the seismic activities. The mean value during that period has been considered in order to take account of the seasonal effect. The monthly mean has been subtracted from daily value to study anomalous behavior (∆SLHT) of SLHT during the earthquakes. The results found that the SLHTs adjacent the epicenters all are anomalous high value 3-5 days before the seismic activities. The abundant surface water and groundwater in the epicenter and its adjacent region can provide the necessary condition for the change of SLHT. To further confirm the reliability of SLHT anomaly, it is necessary to explore its physical mechanism in depth by more earthquakes cases.

Keywords: surface latent heat temperature, satellite data, earthquake, magnetic storm

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Authors: Ashok Pandey, Rajan Adhikari

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Introduction: Menstruation is part of the female reproductive cycle that starts when girls become sexually mature at the time of puberty. It is a phenomenon unique to the females. During a menstrual period, a woman bleeds from her uterus via the vagina. For decades, in many countries, academic school ‘type,’ private or public, as a predictor of or factor in future academic success has been researched and debated. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The comparative study was carried out with adolescent girls studying in both public and private schools of Kathmandu valley. A total of 100 girls participated in the survey, and out of them 21 participated in the FGD and 5 in the in- depth interview. Quantitative data from the survey was analyzed using SPSS 16.0 software. Informed verbal consent with the respective head of school and the respondents were taken before data collection. Results:The age of the respondents ranges from 11 to 18 years, with mean age of menarche being 12.37 years in both school adolescent girls. 70 percent of the public school adolescent girls and 72 percent of the private school adolescent girls are feeling upset and tension during menarche. There is a statistically significant difference on take rest during the period and good hygienic practice during menstruation of public/private school, at α=0. 05 level of significance. There is a statistically significant difference on overall score of practice during menstruation between public and private adolescent girls. Conclusion: Private schools children are more knowledgeable and maintain hygiene as compere to public school even though, it can be said that among the adolescent school girls both in public and private school, menstrual knowledge and perceptions are poor and practices often not optimal for proper hygiene. Often ignored issues of privacy affect the hygienic practices and daily lives.

Keywords: Comparison, Menstruation, Private school, Public School

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Authors: Lalit Tejwani, Reetika Sharma, Arun Singhvi, Himanshu Shekhar

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Purpose: To assess the efficacy of collagen matrix implant (Ologen) in phacotrabeculectomy augmented with mitomycin C (MMC). Methods: A biodegradable collagen matrix (Ologen) was placed in the subconjunctival and subscleral space in twenty-two eyes of 22 patients with glaucoma and cataract who underwent combined phacoemulsification and trabeculectomy augmented with MMC. All of them were examined preoperatively and on the first postoperative day. They were followed for twelve months after surgery. Any intervention needed in follow-up period was noted. Any complication was recorded. The primary outcome measure was postoperative intraocular pressure at one year follow-up. Any additional postoperative treatments needed and adverse events were noted. Results: The mean age of patients included in the study was 57.77 ± 9.68 years (range=36 to 70 years). All the patients were followed for at least one year. Three patients had history of failed trabeculectomy. Fifteen patients had chronic angle closure glaucoma with cataract, five had primary open angle glaucoma with cataract, one had uveitic glaucoma with cataract, and one had juvenile open angle glaucoma with cataract. Mean preoperative IOP was 32.63 ± 8.29 mm Hg, eighteen patients were on oral antiglaucoma medicines. The mean postoperative IOP was 10.09 ± 2.65 mm Hg at three months, 10.36 ± 2.19 mm Hg at six months and 11.36 ± 2.72 mm Hg at one year follow up. No adverse effect related to Ologen was seen. Anterior chamber reformation was done in five patients, and three needed needling of bleb. Four patients needed additional antiglaucoma medications in the follow-up period. Conclusions: Combined phacotrabeculectomy with MMC with Ologen implantation appears to be a safe and effective option in glaucoma patients needing trabeculectomy with significant cataract. Comparative studies with longer duration of follow-up in larger number of patients are needed.

Keywords: combined surgery, ologen, phacotrabeculectomy, success

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Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Madkour, Haitham Magdy Hamad

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This research aims to study the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom era, and revolves around many basic ideas used by the ancient Egyptian to protect his graves from thieves, which included architectural characteristics, which gave it importance only others. The most important of which was the choice of the place of the grave, which chose a kohl place in the desert to protect the graves, which is the valley of kings, and whether the choice of that place had an impact in protecting the grave or not, in addition to other elements followed in the architectural planning, which was in the valley of kings. The multiplicity of the tomb, the construction of the well chamber to deceive the thieves by the end of the graves suddenly, the construction of the wells of the tombs, which contained the burial chamber at the bottom of the main well and the effect of all these factors on the graves, and this shows the importance of the graves to the ancient Egyptian and his belief in resurrection and immortality. The Egyptian resorted to the elements of protection and was a religious worker by The protector gods and special texts to protect the deceased from any danger to protect the tomb. As for the human factor of securing the tomb through human guards (police) and security teams based on the guard and the words indicating the protection and the guard teams and the teams of the majai. The most important developments that arose on the cemetery from Tamit entrance, corridors, chambers, burial chamber and coffin, and the use of sand to close the well after from one cemetery to another and from time to time where it was built in the late period inside the temple campus to be under the attention of the priests and their protection, as the study dealt with an analytical study For the means of securing graves in the Egyptian kingdom period.

Keywords: archaeology, Egyptian kingdom era, graves, tombs, ancient Egyptian

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Authors: Kiran Nawaz, Waheed Anwar, Sehrish Iftikhar, Muhammad Nasir Subhani, Ahmad Ali Shahid

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Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) have been extensively studied and applied for the biocontrol of many soilborne diseases. These rhizobacteria are very efficient against root rot and many other foliar diseases associated with solanaceous plants. These bacteria may inhibit the growth of various pathogens through direct inhibition of target pathogens or indirectly by the initiation of systemic resistance (ISR) which is active all over the complete plant. In the present study, 20 different rhizobacterial isolates were recovered from the root zone of healthy chili plants. All soil samples were collected from various chili-growing areas in Punjab. All isolated rhizobacteria species were evaluated in vitro and in vivo against Phytophthora capsici. Different species of Bacillus and Pseudomonas were tested for the antifungal activity against P. capsici the causal organism of Root rot disease in different crops together with chili. Dual culture and distance culture bioassay were carried out to study the antifungal potential of volatile and diffusible metabolites secreted from rhizobacteria. After seven days of incubation at 22°C, growth inhibition rate was recorded. Growth inhibition rate depended greatly on the tested bacteria and screening methods used. For diffusible metabolites, inhibition rate was 35-62% and 20-45% for volatile metabolites. The screening assay for plant growth promoting and disease inhibition potential of chili associated PGPR indicated 42-100% reduction in disease severity and considerable enhancement in roots fresh weight by 55-87%, aerial parts fresh weight by 35-65% and plant height by 65-76% as compared to untreated control and pathogen-inoculated plants. Pseudomonas flourescene, B. thuringiensis, and B. subtilis were found to be the most efficient isolates in inhibiting P. capsici radial growth, increase plant growth and suppress disease severity.

Keywords: rhizobacteria, chili, phytophthora, root rot

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Authors: Helena M. Wilhelm, Paulo O. Fernandes, Laís P. Dill, Kethlyn G. Moscon

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The use of vegetable oil (or natural ester) as an insulating fluid in electrical transformers is a trend that aims to contribute to environmental preservation since it is biodegradable and non-toxic. Besides, vegetable oil has high flash and combustion points, being considered a fire safety fluid. However, vegetable oil is usually less stable towards oxidation than mineral oil. Both insulating fluids, mineral and vegetable oils, need to be tested periodically according to specific standards. Oxidation stability can be determined by the induction period measured by conductivity method (Rancimat) by monitoring the effectivity of oil’s antioxidant additives, a methodology already developed for food application and biodiesel but still not standardized for insulating fluids. Besides adequate oxidation stability, fluids must be compatible with transformer's construction materials under normal operating conditions to ensure that damage to the oil and parts of the transformer does not occur. ASTM standard and Brazilian normative differ in parameters evaluated, which reveals the need to regulate tests for each oil type. The aim of this study was to assess oxidation stability and compatibility of vegetable oils to suggest the best way to assure a viable performance of vegetable oil as transformer insulating fluid. The determination of the induction period for several vegetable insulating oils from the local market by using Rancimat was carried out according to BS EN 14112 standard, at different temperatures (110, 120, and 130 °C). Also, the compatibility of vegetable oil was assessed according to ASTM and ABNT NBR standards. The main results showed that the best temperature for use in the Rancimat test is 130 °C, which allows a better observation of conductivity change. The compatibility test results presented differences between vegetable and mineral oil standards that should be taken into account in oil testing since materials compatibility and oxidation stability are essential for equipment reliability.

Keywords: compatibility, Rancimat, natural ester, vegetable oil

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Authors: Denisa Mackova, Andrea Pokorna

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The management of postoperative pain is a meaningful part of quality care. The experience and knowledge of registered nurses in postoperative pain management can be influenced by local know-how. Therefore, the research helps to understand the cultural differences between two countries with the aim of evaluating the management of postoperative pain management among the nurses from the Czech Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Both countries have different procedures on managing postoperative pain and the research will provide an understanding of both the advantages and disadvantages of the procedures and also highlight the knowledge and experience of registered nurses in both countries. Between the Czech Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the expectation is for differing results in the usage of opioid analgesia for the patients postoperatively and in the experience of registered nurses with Patient Controlled Analgesia. The aim is to evaluate the knowledge and awareness of registered nurses and to merge the data with the postoperative pain management in the early postoperative period in the Czech Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also, the aim is to assess the knowledge and experience of registered nurses by using Patient Controlled Analgesia and epidural analgesia treatment in the early postoperative period. The criteria for those providing input into the study, are registered nurses, working in surgical settings (standard departments, post-anesthesia care unit, day care surgery or ICU’s) caring for patients in the postoperative period. Method: Research is being conducted by questionnaires. It is a quantitative research, a comparative study of registered nurses in the Czech Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Questionnaire surveys were distributed through an electronic Bristol online survey. Results: The collection of the data in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been completed successfully, with 550 respondents, 77 were excluded and 473 respondents were included for statistical data analysis. The outcome of the research is expected to highlight the differences in treatment through Patient Controlled Analgesia, with more frequent use in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A similar assumption is expected for treatment conducted by analgesia. We predict that opioids will be used more regularly in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, whilst therapy through NSAID’s being the most common approach in the Czech Republic. Discussion/Conclusion: The majority of respondents from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were female registered nurses from a multitude of nations. We are expecting a similar split in gender between the Czech Republic respondents; however, there will be a smaller number of nationalities. Relevance for research and practice: Output from the research will assess the knowledge, experience and practice of patient controlled analgesia and epidural analgesia treatment. Acknowledgement: This research was accepted and affiliated to the project: Postoperative pain management, knowledge and experience registered nurses (Czech Republic and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) – SGS05/2019-2020.

Keywords: acute postoperative pain, epidural analgesia, nursing care, patient controlled analgesia

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Authors: Phyo Kyaw Kyaw

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In the Yangon urban landscape, one could not help, but notice old buildings from the colonial period along with condominium developments recently, and many walk-up apartment buildings to accommodate the urbanization, growing population and social-economic status of Myanmar people. Walk-up apartments were built and popular after the British colonial period (around 1950s) and are still built up to today due to its cost-effectiveness and to accommodate low to mid-income residents in the metropolitan Yangon. Approximately 90% of apartment buildings are walk-up apartments. The common impression of walk-up apartments in Yangon appears to be old rectangular box shape, homogenous envelope and limited square feet dull interior small space. In other words, the buildings are full of constraints, lack of good user experiences, and they are not well-fitted in the modern days. Therefore, the resident suffers consequently many years, some may live in the apartment their entire lives. Thousands of people living in the walk-up apartment on a daily basis are being shaped by the space and its inadequate quality of living. Can it be called “Home” by the dwellers or is the place a temporary shelter?. Online semi-structured interviews of 15 apartments’ residents and online questionnaire surveys of 70 apartment residents are conducted. This research aims to explore what makes “Home” “A sense of Home” for walk-up apartment users in Yangon, Myanmar by studying subjective responses shaped by the interior and experience of the spaces in apartment to understand the perception of the residents and improve the quality of living. The result reflects the priority level of important factors in relation to the sense of home framework.

Keywords: home, living quality, space, perception, residents, walk-up apartment, Yangon

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Authors: Muhammad Adeel Arshad, Shaukat Ali Bhatti

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The study aimed to investigate the effect of bile acids and lipase supplementation in low-energy diets on growth performance and meat quality of broilers. Seven hundred day-old Cobb-500 broiler chicks with an average initial body weight of 45.9 ± 0.3 g were assigned to 5 dietary treatments, with five replications of 28 birds each in a completely randomized design. The five treatments were as follows: (i) HE: broilers received a diet with high energy content; (ii) LE: broilers received a diet with low energy content and energy content reduced by 100 kcal/kg as compared to HE; (iii) LEB: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with 300 g/ton bile acids; (iv) LEL: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with 180 g/ton lipase enzyme and (v) LEBL: broilers received a diet similar to the LE group supplemented with both 300 g/ton bile acids and 180 g/ton lipase enzyme. The experimental period lasted for 35 days. Broilers fed HE had a lower (P < 0.05) body weight (BW) gain and lower feed intake (1-35 d), but during finisher period (21-35 d), BW gain was similar with other treatments. Feed conversion ratio (FCR) was lower in HE and higher in LEBL group (P < 0.05), while the LE, LEB, and LEL had intermediate values. At 35 d no difference occurred between treatment for water holding capacity and pH of breast and thigh muscles (P > 0.05). The relative weight of pancreas was higher (P < 0.05) in LEB treatment but lower (P < 0.05) in LEL treatment. In conclusion, bile acids and lipase supplementation at 300 g/ton and 150g/ton of feed in low-energy diets respectively had no effect on broiler performance and meat quality. However, FCR was improved in HE treatment.

Keywords: bile acids, energy, enzyme, growth

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Authors: Septiany Trisnaningtyas

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Purpose: This research aims to examine the factors affecting the profitability of pharmaceutical company during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia. A sharp decline in the number of patients coming to the hospital for treatment during the pandemic has an impact on the growth of the pharmaceutical sector and brought major changes in financial position and business performance. Pharmaceutical companies that provide products related to the Covid-19 pandemic can survive and continue to grow. This study investigates the factors affecting the profitability of pharmaceutical company during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia associated with the number of Covid-19 cases. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses panel-data regression models to evaluate the influence of the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases on profitability of ninelisted pharmaceuticalcompanies in Indonesia. This research is based on four independent variables that were empirically examined for their relationship with profitability. These variables are liquidity (current ratio), growth rate (sales growth), firm size (total sales), and market power (the Lerner index). Covid-19 case is used as moderating variable. Data of nine pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange covering the period of 2018–2021 were extracted from companies’ quarterly annual reports. Findings: In the period during Covid-19, company growth (sales growth) and market power (lerner index) have a positive and significant relationship to ROA and ROE. Total of confirmed Covid-19 cases has a positive and significant relationship to ROA and is proven to have a moderating effect between company’s growth (sales growth) to ROA and ROE and market power (Lerner index) to ROA. Research limitations/implications: Due to data availability, this study only includes data from nine listed pharmaceutical companies in Indonesian Stock exchange and quarterly annual reportscovering the period of 2018-2021. Originality/value: This study focuses onpharmaceutical companies in Indonesia during Covid-19 pandemic. Previous study analyzes the data from pharmaceutical companies’ annual reports since 2014 and focus on universal health coverage (national health insurance) implementation from the Indonesian government. This study analyzes the data using fixed effect panel-data regression models to evaluate the influence of Covid-19 confirmed cases on profitability. Pooled ordinary least squares regression and fixed effects were used to analyze the data in previous study. This study also investigate the moderating effect of Covid-19 confirmed cases to profitability in relevant with the pandemic situation.

Keywords: profitability, indonesia, pharmaceutical, Covid-19

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 91