Search results for: earthquake risk management

Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Rajwanlop Kumpoopong, Sukit Yindeesuk, Pornchai Silarom

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On May 5, 2014, an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 Richter hit the Northern part of Thailand. The epicenter was in Phan District, Chiang Rai Province. This earthquake or the so-called 2014-Chiang Rai Earthquake is the strongest ground shaking that Thailand has ever been experienced in her modern history. The 2014-Chiang Rai Earthquake confirms the geological evidence, which has previously been ignored by most engineers, that earthquakes of considerable magnitudes 6 to 7 Richter can occurr within the country. This promptly stimulates authorized agencies to pay more attention at the safety of their assets and promotes the comprehensive review of seismic resistance design of their building structures. The focus of this paper is to summarize the damages of highway bridges as a result of the 2014-Chiang Rai ground shaking, the remedy actions, and the research needs. The 2014-Chiang Rai Earthquake caused considerable damages to nearby structures such as houses, schools, and temples. The ground shaking, however, caused damage to only one highway bridge, Mae Laos Bridge, located several kilometers away from the epicenter. The damage of Mae Laos Bridge was in the form of concrete spalling caused by pounding of cap beam on the deck structure. The damage occurred only at the end or abutment span. The damage caused by pounding is not a surprise, but the pounding by only one bridge requires further investigation and discussion. Mae Laos Bridge is a river crossing bridge with relatively large approach structure. In as much, the approach structure is confined by strong retaining walls. This results in a rigid-like approach structure which vibrates at the acceleration approximately equal to the ground acceleration during the earthquake and exerts a huge force to the abutment causing the pounding of cap beam on the deck structure. Other bridges nearby have relatively small approach structures, and therefore have no capability to generate pounding. The effect of mass of the approach structure on pounding of cap beam on the deck structure is also evident by the damage of one pedestrian bridge in front of Thanthong Wittaya School located 50 meters from Mae Laos Bridge. The width of the approach stair of this bridge is wider than the typical one to accommodate the stream of students during pre- and post-school times. This results in a relatively large mass of the approach stair which in turn exerts a huge force to the pier causing pounding of cap beam on the deck structure during ground shaking. No sign of pounding was observed for a typical pedestrian bridge located at another end of Mae Laos Bridge. Although pounding of cap beam on the deck structure of the above mentioned bridges does not cause serious damage to bridge structure, this incident promotes the comprehensive review of seismic resistance design of highway bridges in Thailand. Given a proper mass and confinement of the approach structure, the pounding of cap beam on the deck structure can be easily excited even at the low to moderate ground shaking. In as much, if the ground shaking becomes stronger, the pounding is certainly more powerful. This may cause the deck structure to be unseated and fall off in the case of unrestrained bridge. For the bridge with restrainer between cap beam and the deck structure, the restrainer may prevent the deck structure from falling off. However, preventing free movement of the pier by the restrainer may damage the pier itself. Most highway bridges in Thailand have dowel bars embedded connecting cap beam and the deck structure. The purpose of the existence of dowel bars is, however, not intended for any seismic resistance. Their ability to prevent the deck structure from unseating and their effect on the potential damage of the pier should be evaluated. In response to this expected situation, Thailand Department of Highways (DOH) has set up a team to revise the standard practices for the seismic resistance design of highway bridges in Thailand. In addition, DOH has also funded the research project 'Seismic Resistance Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Design Modifications of DOH’s Bridges' with the scope of full-scale tests of single span bridges under reversed cyclic static loadings for both longitudinal and transverse directions and computer simulations to evaluate the seismic performance of the existing bridges and the design modification bridges. The research is expected to start in October, 2015.

Keywords: earthquake, highway bridge, Thailand, damage, pounding, seismic resistance

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Çiğdem Avcı Karataş

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Mitigation of structural damage caused by earthquake and reduction of fatality is one of the main concerns of engineers in seismic prone zones of the world. To achieve this aim many technologies have been developed in the last decades and applied in construction and retrofit of structures. On the one hand Turkey is well-known a country of high level of seismicity; on the other hand steel-composite structures appear competitive today in this country by comparison with other types of structures, for example only-steel or concrete structures. Composite construction is the dominant form of construction for the multi-storey building sector. The reason why composite construction is often so good can be expressed in one simple way - concrete is good in compression and steel is good in tension. By joining the two materials together structurally these strengths can be exploited to result in a highly efficient design. The reduced self-weight of composite elements has a knock-on effect by reducing the forces in those elements supporting them, including the foundations. The floor depth reductions that can be achieved using composite construction can also provide significant benefits in terms of the costs of services and the building envelope. The scope of this paper covers analysis, materials take-off, cost analysis and economic comparisons of a multi-storey building with composite and steel frames. The aim of this work is to show that designing load carrying systems as composite is more economical than designing as steel. Design of the nine stories building which is under consideration is done according to the regulation of the 2007, Turkish Earthquake Code and by using static and dynamic analysis methods. For the analyses of the steel and composite systems, plastic analysis methods have been used and whereas steel system analyses have been checked in compliance with EC3 and composite system analyses have been checked in compliance with EC4. At the end of the comparisons, it is revealed that composite load carrying systems analysis is more economical than the steel load carrying systems analysis considering the materials to be used in the load carrying system and the workmanship to be spent for this job.

Keywords: composite analysis, earthquake, steel, multi-storey building

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Marwa Mamdouh Shaban, Nagat Saied Habib, Shireen Ezz El-Din Taha, Eman Mahmoud Seif El-Naser

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Background: Dental nurses and dentists were constantly exposed to a number of specific work related health risk factors which develop and intensify with years. Awareness regarding these work-related health risk factors and implementation of preventive health care measures could provide a safe work environment for all dental nurses and dentists. Aim of the study: to assess the work-related health risk factors among dental nurses and dentists and preventive health care measures applied among dental nurses and dentists. Research design: A descriptive design was utilized. Sample: Convenience sample of 50 dental nurses and 150 dentists were included in the current study. Setting: This study was conducted at the dental clinics at faculty of oral and dental medicine, Al-Kasr Al Ainy Hospital. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a-Socio-demographic data sheet, b-Work-related health risk factors questionnaire, and c-structured observational checklist. Results: The most common work risk factors prevailing among dental nurses were emotional exhaustion (82%), low back pain (76%) and latex allergy (62%) and the most common work risk factors prevailing among dentists were percutaneous exposure incident (100%), emotional exhaustion (100%) and low back pain (93.3%). Also, statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.274, at p = 0.045) between the incidence of chemical health risk factors and application of chemical preventive measures among dental nurses. A statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.177, at p = 0.030) between the incidences of mechanical health risk factors among dentists and application of mechanical preventive measures. Conclusion: The studied dental nurses and dentists exposed to many work related health risk factors as latex allergy, percutaneous exposure incidents, low back pain and emotional exhaustion related to inappropriate application of preventive health care measures. Recommendation: Raise awareness of dental nurses and dentists about work-related health risk factors, design and implement health education program for preventive health care measures.

Keywords: work-related risk factors, preventive measures, nurses, dentists

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Authors: Taeho Park, Ming Zhou, Sangryul Shim

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With the emergence of the global economy, today’s business environment is getting more competitive than ever in the past. And many supply chain (SC) strategies and operations have significantly been altered over the past decade to overcome more complexities and risks imposed onto the global business. First, offshoring and outsourcing are more adopted as operational strategies. Manufacturing continues to move to better locations for enhancing competitiveness. Second, international operations are a challenge to a company’s SC system. Third, the products traded in the SC system are not just physical goods, but also digital goods (e.g., software, e-books, music, video materials). There are three main flows involved in fulfilling the activities in the SC system: physical flow, information flow, and financial flow. An advance of the Internet and electronic communication technologies has enabled companies to perform the flows of SC activities in electronic formats, resulting in the advent of an electronic supply chain management (e-SCM) system. A SC system for digital goods is somewhat different from the supply chain system for physical goods. However, it involves many similar or identical SC activities and flows. For example, like the production of physical goods, many third parties are also involved in producing digital goods for the production of components and even final products. This research aims at identifying process flows of both physical and digital goods in a SC system, and then investigating all risk elements involved in the physical, information, and financial flows during the fulfilment of SC activities. There are many risks inherent in the e-SCM system. Some risks may have severe impact on a company’s business, and some occur frequently but are not detrimental enough to jeopardize a company. Thus, companies should assess the impact and frequency of those risks, and then prioritize them in terms of their severity, frequency, budget, and time in order to be carefully maintained. We found risks involved in the global trading of physical and digital goods in four different categories: environmental risk, strategic risk, technological risk, and operational risk. And then the significance of those risks was investigated through a survey. The survey asked companies about the frequency and severity of the identified risks. They were also asked whether they had faced those risks in the past. Since the characteristics and supply chain flows of digital goods are varying industry by industry and country by country, it is more meaningful and useful to analyze risks by industry and country. To this end, more data in each industry sector and country should be collected, which could be accomplished in the future research.

Keywords: digital goods, e-SCM, risk analysis, supply chain flows

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Authors: Iman Nezamzadeh, Ali Faghih, Behnam Oveisi

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In order to reduce earthquake hazards in urban areas, it is necessary to perform comprehensive studies to understand the dynamics of the active faults and identify potentially high risk areas. The fault slip-rates in Late Quaternary sediment are critical indicators of seismic hazard and also provide valuable data to recognize young crustal deformations. To measure slip-rates accurately, is needed to displacement of geomorphic markers and ages of quaternary sediment samples of alluvial deposit that deformed by movements on fault. In this study we produced information about Intermediate term slip rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone (SPF) within the central part of the Zagros Mountains of Iran using OSL dating technique to make better analysis of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction for Shiraz city. For this purpose identifiable geomorphic fluvial surfaces help us to provide a reference frame to determine differential or absolute horizontal and vertical deformation. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is an alternative and independent method of determining the burial age of mineral grains in Quaternary sediments. Field observation and satellite imagery show geomorphic markers that deformed horizontally along the Sabzpoushan Fault. Here, drag folds is forming because of evaporites material of Miocen Formation. We estimate 2.8±0.5 mm/yr (mm/y) horizontal slip rate along the Sabzpushan fault zone, where ongoing deformation is involve with drug folding. The Soltan synclinal structure, close to the Sabzpushan fault, shows slight uplift rate due to active core-extrousion.

Keywords: slip rate, active tectonics, OSL, geomorphic markers, Sabzpushan Fault Zone, Zagros, Iran

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Nyasha Agnes Gurira, Petronella Katekwe

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Traditional management systems (TMS) are a vital source of knowledge for conserving cultural and natural heritage. TMS’s are renowned for their ability to preserve both tangible and intangible manifestations of heritage. They are a construct of the intricate relationship that exists between heritage and host communities, where communities are recognized as owners of heritage and so, set up management mechanisms to ensure its adequate conservation. Multiple heritage condition surveys were conducted to assess the effectiveness of using TMS in the conservation of both natural and cultural heritage. Surveys were done at Nharira Hills, Mahwemasimike, Dzimbahwe, Manjowe Rock art sites and Norumedzo forest which are heritage places in Zimbabwe. It assessed the state of conservation of the five case studies and assessed the role that host communities play in the management of these heritage places. It was revealed that TMS’s are effective in the conservation of natural heritage, however in relation to heritage forms with cultural manifestations, there are major disparities. These range from differences in appreciation and perception of value within communities leading to vandalism, over emphasis in the conservation of the intangible element as opposed to the tangible. This leaves the tangible element at risk. Despite these issues, TMS are a reliable knowledge base which enables more holistic conservation approaches for cultural and natural heritage.

Keywords: communities, cultural intangible, tangible heritage, traditional management systems, natural

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Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Bambang Ariantara, Nandy Putra, Rangga Aji Pamungkas

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The development of electric vehicle batteries has resulted in very high energy density lithium-ion batteries. However, this progress is accompanied by the risk of thermal runaway, which can result in serious accidents. Heat pipes are heat exchangers that are suitable to be applied in electric vehicle battery thermal management for their lightweight, compact size and do not require external power supply. This paper aims to examine experimentally a flat plate loop heat pipe (FPLHP) performance as a heat exchanger in the thermal management system of the lithium-ion battery for electric vehicle application. The heat generation of the battery was simulated using a cartridge heater. Stainless steel screen mesh was used as the capillary wick. Distilled water, alcohol and acetone were used as working fluids with a filling ratio of 60%. It was found that acetone gives the best performance that produces the thermal resistance of 0.22 W/°C with 50 °C evaporator temperature at heat flux load of 1.61 W/cm2.

Keywords: electric vehicle, flat-plate loop heat pipe, lithium-ion battery, thermal management system

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Authors: Sudikshya Bhandari, Jonathan K. London

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The earthquake of April 2015 was one of the biggest disasters in the history of Nepal. The epicenter was located near Barpak, north of the Gorkha district. Before the disaster, this settlement was a compact and homogeneous settlement manifesting its uniqueness through the social and cultural activities, and a distinct vernacular architecture. Narrow alleys with stone paved streets, buildings with slate roofs, and common spaces between the houses made this settlement socially, culturally, and environmentally cohesive. With the presence of micro hydro power plants, local economic activities enabled the local community to exist and thrive. Agriculture and animal rearing are the sources of livelihood for the majority of families, along with the booming homestays (where local people welcome guests to their home, as a business) and local shops. Most of these activities are difficult to find as the houses have been destroyed with the earthquake and the process of reconstruction has been transforming the outlook of the settlement. This study characterized the drastic transformation in Barpak post-earthquake, and analyzed the consequences of the reconstruction process. In addition, it contributes to comprehending a broader representation about unsustainability created by the lack of contextual post-disaster development. Since the research is based in a specific area, a case study approach was used. Sample houses were selected on the basis of ethnicity and house typology. Mixed methods such as key informant and semi structured interviews, focus groups, observations and photographs are used for the collection of data. The research focus is predominantly on the physical change of the house typology from vernacular to externally adopted designs. This transformation of the house entails socio-cultural changes such as social fragmentation with differences among the rich and the poor and decreases in the social connectivity within families and neighborhood. Families have found that new houses require more maintenance and resources that have increased their economic expenses. The study also found that the reconstructed houses are not thermally comfortable in the cold climate of Barpak, leading to the increased use of different sources of heating like electric heaters and more firewood. Lack of storage spaces for crops and livestock have discouraged them to pursue traditional means of livelihood and depend more on buying food from stores, ultimately making it less economical for most of the families. The transformation of space leading to the economic, social and cultural changes demonstrates the unsustainability of Barpak. Conclusions from the study suggest place based and inclusive planning and policy formations that include locals as partners, identifying the possible ways to minimize the impact and implement these recommendations into the future policy and planning scenarios.

Keywords: earthquake, Nepal, reconstruction, settlement, transformation

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Sima Hajiazizi

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Tehran is a capital of Iran, with the capitals of the world to natural disasters such as earthquake and flood vulnerable has known. City has stated on three faults, Ray, Mosha, and north according to report of JICA in 2000, the most casualties and destruction was the result of active fault Ray. In 2003, the prevention and management of crisis in Tehran to conduct prevention and rehabilitation of the city, under the Ministry has active. Given the breadth and lack of appropriate access in the city, was considered decentralized management for crisis management support, in each region, in order to position the crisis management headquarters at the time of crises and implementation of programs for prevention and education of the citizens and also to position the bases given in some areas of the neighboring provinces at the time of the accident for help and a number of databases to store food and equipment needed at the time of the disaster. In this study, the bases for one, six, nine and eleven regions of Tehran in the field of management and training are evaluated. Selected areas had local accident and experience of practice for disaster management and local training has been experiencing challenges. The research approach was used qualitative research methods underlying Ground theory. At first, the information obtained through the study of documents and Semi-structured interviews by administrators, officials of training and participant observation in the classroom, line by line, and then it was coded in two stages, by comparing and questioning concepts, categories and extract according to the indicators is obtained from literature studies, subjects were been central. Main articles according to the frequency and importance of the phenomenon were called and they were drawn diagram paradigm and at the end with the intersections phenomena and their causes with indicators extracted from the texts, approach each phenomenon and the effectiveness of the bases was measured. There are two phenomenons in management; 1. The inability to manage the vast and complex crisis events and to resolve minor incidents due to the mismatch between managers. 2. Weaknesses in the implementation of preventive measures and preparedness to manage crisis is causal of situations, fields and intervening. There are five phenomenons in the field of education; 1. In the six-region participation and interest is high. 2. In eleven-region training partnerships for crisis management were to low that next by maneuver in schools and local initiatives such as advertising and use of aid groups have increased. 3. In nine-region, contributions to education in the area of crisis management at the beginning were low that initiatives like maneuver in schools and communities to stimulate and increase participation have increased sensitivity. 4. Managers have been disagreement with the same training in all areas. Finally for the issues that are causing the main issues, with the help of concepts extracted from the literature, recommendations are provided.

Keywords: crises management, crisis management support bases, vulnerability, crisis management headquarters, prevention

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Authors: X. Wang

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Timely and accurate information on urban building damage caused by earthquake is important basis for disaster assessment and emergency relief. Very high resolution (VHR) remotely sensed imagery containing abundant fine-scale information offers a large quantity of data for detecting and assessing urban building damage in the aftermath of earthquake disasters. However, the accuracy obtained using spectral features alone is comparatively low, since building damage, intact buildings and pavements are spectrally similar. Therefore, it is of great significance to detect urban building damage effectively using multi-source data. Considering that in general height or geometric structure of buildings change dramatically in the devastated areas, a novel multi-stage urban building damage detection method, using bi-temporal spectral, height and corner information, was proposed in this study. The pre-event height information was generated using stereo VHR images acquired from two different satellites, while the post-event height information was produced from airborne LiDAR data. The corner information was extracted from pre- and post-event panchromatic images. The proposed method can be summarized as follows. To reduce the classification errors caused by spectral similarity and errors in extracting height information, ground surface, shadows, and vegetation were first extracted using the post-event VHR image and height data and were masked out. Two different types of building damage were then extracted from the remaining areas: the height difference between pre- and post-event was used for detecting building damage showing significant height change; the difference in the density of corners between pre- and post-event was used for extracting building damage showing drastic change in geometric structure. The initial building damage result was generated by combining above two building damage results. Finally, a post-processing procedure was adopted to refine the obtained initial result. The proposed method was quantitatively evaluated and compared to two existing methods in Port au Prince, Haiti, which was heavily hit by an earthquake in January 2010, using pre-event GeoEye-1 image, pre-event WorldView-2 image, post-event QuickBird image and post-event LiDAR data. The results showed that the method proposed in this study significantly outperformed the two comparative methods in terms of urban building damage extraction accuracy. The proposed method provides a fast and reliable method to detect urban building collapse, which is also applicable to relevant applications.

Keywords: building damage, corner, earthquake, height, very high resolution (VHR)

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: Prayas Sharma

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This paper proposed a generalized class of estimators, an exponential class of estimators based on the adaption of Sharma and Singh (2015) and Solanki and Singh (2013), and a simple difference estimator for estimating unknown population mean in the case of Poisson distributed population in simple random sampling without replacement. The expressions for mean square errors of the proposed classes of estimators are derived from the first order of approximation. It is shown that the adapted version of Solanki and Singh (2013), the exponential class of estimator, is always more efficient than the usual estimator, ratio, product, exponential ratio, and exponential product type estimators and equally efficient to simple difference estimator. Moreover, the adapted version of Sharma and Singh's (2015) estimator is always more efficient than all the estimators available in the literature. In addition, theoretical findings are supported by an empirical study to show the superiority of the constructed estimators over others with an application to earthquake data of Turkey.

Keywords: auxiliary attribute, point bi-serial, mean square error, simple random sampling, Poisson distribution

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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Physiological changes during pregnancy, such as alterations in the circulatory, respiratory, and musculoskeletal systems, can negatively impact daily physical activity. This reduced activity is often associated with an increased risk of adverse maternal health outcomes, particularly gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and excessive weight gain. This meta-analysis aims to evaluate the effectiveness of structured physical exercise interventions during pregnancy in reducing the risk of GDM and managing maternal weight gain. A comprehensive search was conducted across six major databases: PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and ClinicalTrials.gov, covering the period from database inception until 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that explored the effects of physical exercise programs on pregnant women with low physical activity levels were included. The search was performed using EndNote and results were managed using RevMan (Review Manager) for meta-analysis. RCTs involving healthy pregnant women with low levels of physical activity or sedentary lifestyles were selected. These RCTs must have incorporated structured exercise programs during pregnancy and reported on outcomes related to GDM and maternal weight gain. From an initial pool of 5,112 articles, 65 RCTs (involving 11,400 pregnant women) met the inclusion criteria. Data extraction was performed, followed by a quality assessment of the selected studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan software, where pooled relative risks (RR) and weighted mean differences (WMD) were calculated using a random-effects model to address heterogeneity across studies. Sensitivity analyses, subgroup analyses (based on factors such as exercise intensity, duration, and pregnancy stage), and publication bias assessments were also conducted. Structured physical exercise during pregnancy led to a significant reduction in the risk of developing GDM (RR = 0.68; P < 0.001), particularly when the exercise program was performed throughout the pregnancy (RR = 0.62; P = 0.035). In addition, maternal weight gain was significantly reduced (WMD = −1.18 kg; 95% CI −1.54 to −0.85; P < 0.001). There were no significant adverse effects reported for either the mother or the neonate, confirming that exercise interventions are safe for both. This meta-analysis highlights the positive impact of regular moderate physical activity during pregnancy in reducing the risk of GDM and managing maternal weight gain. These findings suggest that physical exercise should be encouraged as a routine part of prenatal care. However, more research is required to refine exercise recommendations and determine the most effective interventions based on individual risk factors and pregnancy stages.

Keywords: gestational diabetes, maternal weight management, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials

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Authors: Princess Ncube

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In the context of South Africa's banking sector, the prevention of bank failures is of paramount importance to ensure financial stability and economic growth. This paper focuses on the role of regulatory frameworks in safeguarding the resilience of South African banks and mitigating the risks of failures. It aims to assess the effectiveness of existing regulatory measures and proposes strategies to enhance the resilience of financial institutions in the country. The paper begins by examining the specific regulatory frameworks in place in South Africa, including capital adequacy requirements, stress testing methodologies, risk management guidelines, and supervisory practices. It delves into the evolution of these measures in response to lessons learned from past financial crises and their relevance in the unique South African banking landscape. Drawing on empirical evidence and case studies specific to South Africa, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of regulatory frameworks in preventing bank failures within the country. It analyses the impact of these frameworks on crucial aspects such as early detection of distress signals, improvements in risk management practices, and advancements in corporate governance within South African financial institutions. Additionally, it explores the interplay between regulatory frameworks and the specific economic environment of South Africa, including the role of macroprudential policies in preventing systemic risks. Based on the assessment, this paper proposes recommendations to strengthen regulatory frameworks and enhance their effectiveness in bank failure prevention in South Africa. It explores avenues for refining existing regulations to align capital requirements with the risk profiles of South African banks, enhancing stress testing methodologies to capture specific vulnerabilities, and fostering better coordination among regulatory authorities within the country. Furthermore, it examines the potential benefits of adopting innovative approaches, such as leveraging technology and data analytics, to improve risk assessment and supervision in the South African banking sector.

Keywords: banks, resolution, liquidity, regulation

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Authors: Najeeb Ullah Khan

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Background: The receptor activator NF-κβ ligand (RANKL) and Osteoprotegerin (OPG) polymorphisms have been associated with the progression of breast cancer to bone metastasis. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of RANKL and OPG gene polymorphism with breast to bone metastasis in the Pashtun population, Pakistan. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from all the study subjects (106 breast cancer, 58 breast to bone metastasis, and 51 healthy controls). RANKL (rs9533156) and OPG (rs2073618, rs3102735) polymorphisms were genotyped using Tetra-ARMS PCR. Results: Our results indicated that the frequencies of OPG (rs3102735) risk allele and genotypes carrying risk allele in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.005; CC- p=0.0208; TC- p=0.0181), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0211; CC- p=0.0153; TC- p=0.0775), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.001) were found significantly associated with disease risk. However, there was no significant association observed for OPG (rs2073618) risk allele and risk allele containing genotypes in all study groups. Similarly, RANKL (rs9533156) risk alleles and corresponding genotypes in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.0084), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.5593), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0185; CC- p=0.6077; TC- p=0.1436) showed significant association except for the risk allele carrying genotypes in breast cancer to bone metastasis (TC, p=0.1436; CC, p=0.6077). Conclusion: OPG (rs3102735) and RANKL (rs9533156) showed significant association with breast to bone metastasis, while OPG (rs2073618) didn’t show a significant association with breast to bone metastasis in Pashtun population of Pakistan. However, more investigation will be required to disseminate the results while gene sequencing or whole-exome sequencing.

Keywords: breast cancer, bone metastasis, OPG, RANKL, polymorphism

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Authors: Alicja Reuben, Amira Annabi

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between the selection of valuation techniques by investment banks and the banks’ risk perceptions and performance in the context of the theory of performativity. We use inferential statistics to study these relationships by building a unique dataset based on the disclosure of 12 investment banks’ 2012-2015 annual financial statements. Moreover, we create two constructs, namely intensity of use and risk perception. We measure the intensity of use as a frequency metric of how often a particular bank adopts valuation techniques for a particular asset or liability. We measure risk perception based on disclosed ranges of values for unobservable inputs. Our results are twofold: we find a significant negative correlation between (1) intensity of use and investment bank performance and (2) intensity of use and risk perception. These results indicate that a performative process takes place, and the valuation techniques are enacting their environment.

Keywords: language, linguistics, performativity, financial techniques

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

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The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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Authors: Liang Zhang, Gang Xu, Yue Wang, Chen Li, Shao Chong Zhou

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Presently, more and more nuclear power plants are facing the issue of life extension. When a nuclear power plant applies for an extension of life, its condition needs to meet the current design standards, which is not fine for all old reactors, typically for seismic design. Seismic-grade equipment in nuclear power plants are now generally placed separately from the non-seismic-grade equipment, but it was not strictly required before. Therefore, it is very important to study whether non-seismic-grade equipment will affect the seismic-grade equipment when dropped down in an earthquake situation, which is related to the safety of nuclear power plants and future life extension applications. This research was based on the cooling water system with the seismic and non-seismic grade equipment installed together, as an example to study whether the non-seismic-grade equipment such as DN50 fire pipes and ventilation pipes arranged above will damage the DN300 pipes and valves arranged below when earthquakes occur. In the study, the simulation was carried out by ANSYS / LY-DYNA, and Johnson-Cook was used as the material model and failure model. For the experiments, the relative positions of objects in the room were restored by 1: 1. In the experiment, the pipes and valves were filled with water with a pressure of 0.785 MPa. The pressure-holding performance of the pipe was used as a criterion for damage. In addition to the pressure-holding performance, the opening torque was considered as well for the valves. The research results show that when the 10-meter-long DN50 pipe was dropped from the position of 8 meters height and the 8-meter-long air pipe dropped from a position of 3.6 meters height, they do not affect the integrity of DN300 pipe below. There is no failure phenomenon in the simulation as well. After the experiment, the pressure drop in two hours for the pipe is less than 0.1%. The main body of the valve does not fail either. The opening torque change after the experiment is less than 0.5%, but the handwheel of the valve may break, which affects the opening actions. In summary, impacts of the upper pipes and ventilation pipes dropdown on the integrity of the DN300 pipes and valves below in a cooling water system of a typical second-generation nuclear power plant under an earthquake was studied. As a result, the functionality of the DN300 pipeline and the valves themselves are not significantly affected, but the handwheel of the valve or similar articles can probably be broken and need to take care.

Keywords: cooling water system, earthquake, integrity, pipe and valve

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 523