Search results for: vector space models

Authors: M. Invigorito, G. Elia, M. Panelli

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Hybrid propulsion combines beneficial properties of both solid and liquid rockets, such as multiple restarts, throttability as well as simplicity and reduced costs. A nitrous oxide (N2O)/paraffin-based hybrid rocket engine demonstrator is currently under development at the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) within the national research program HYPROB, funded by the Italian Ministry of Research. Nitrous oxide belongs to the class of self-pressurizing propellants that exhibit a high vapor pressure at standard ambient temperature. This peculiar feature makes those fluids very attractive for space rocket applications because it avoids the use of complex pressurization systems, leading to great benefits in terms of weight savings and reliability. To avoid feed-system-coupled instabilities, the phase change is required to occur through the injectors. In this regard, the oxidizer is stored in liquid condition while target chamber pressures are designed to lie below vapor pressure. The consequent cavitation and flash vaporization constitute a remarkably complex phenomenology that arises great modelling challenges. Thus, it is clear that the design of the injection system is fundamental for the full exploitation of hybrid rocket engine throttability. The Analytical Hierarchy Process has been used to select the injection architecture as best compromise among different design criteria such as functionality, technology innovation and cost. The impossibility to use engineering simplified relations for the dimensioning of the injectors led to the needs of applying a numerical approach based on OpenFOAM®. The numerical tool has been validated with selected experimental data from literature. Quantitative, as well as qualitative comparisons are performed in terms of mass flow rate and pressure drop across the injector for several operating conditions. The results show satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. Modeling assumptions, together with their impact on numerical predictions are discussed in the paper. Once assessed the reliability of the numerical tool, the injection plate has been designed and sized to guarantee the required amount of oxidizer in the combustion chamber and therefore to assure high combustion efficiency. To this purpose, the plate has been designed with multiple injectors whose number and diameter have been selected in order to reach the requested mass flow rate for the two operating conditions of maximum and minimum thrust. The overall design has been finally verified through three-dimensional computations in cavitating non-reacting conditions and it has been verified that the proposed design solution is able to guarantee the requested values of mass flow rates.

Keywords: hybrid rocket, injection system design, OpenFOAM®, cavitation

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Authors: Volodymyr Rombakh

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This article was written to substantiate the possibility of detecting the precursors of catastrophic destruction of a structure or device and stopping operation before it. Damage to solids results from breaking the bond between atoms, which requires energy. Modern theories of strength and fracture assume that such energy is due to stress. However, in a letter to W. Thomson (Lord Kelvin) dated December 18, 1856, J.C. Maxwell provided evidence that elastic energy cannot destroy solids. He proposed an equation for estimating a deformable body's energy, equal to the sum of two energies. Due to symmetrical compression, the first term does not change, but the second term is distortion without compression. Both types of energy are represented in the equation as a quadratic function of strain, but Maxwell repeatedly wrote that it is not stress but strain. Furthermore, he notes that the nature of the energy causing the distortion is unknown to him. An article devoted to theories of elasticity was published in 1850. Maxwell tried to express mechanical properties with the help of optics, which became possible only after the creation of quantum mechanics. However, Maxwell's work on elasticity is not cited in the theories of strength and fracture. The authors of these theories and their associates are still trying to describe the phenomena they observe based on classical mechanics. The study of Faraday's experiments, Maxwell's and Rutherford's ideas, made it possible to discover a previously unknown area of electromagnetic radiation. The properties of photons emitted in this reaction are fundamentally different from those of photons emitted in nuclear reactions and are caused by the transition of electrons in an atom. The photons released during all processes in the universe, including from plants and organs in natural conditions; their penetrating power in metal is millions of times greater than that of one of the gamma rays. However, they are not non-invasive. This apparent contradiction is because the chaotic motion of protons is accompanied by the chaotic radiation of photons in time and space. Such photons are not coherent. The energy of a solitary photon is insufficient to break the bond between atoms, one of the stages of which is ionization. The photographs registered the rail deformation by 113 cars, while the Gaiger Counter did not. The author's studies show that the cause of damage to a solid is the breakage of bonds between a finite number of atoms due to the stimulated emission of metastable atoms. The guarantee of the reliability of the structure is the ratio of the energy dissipation rate to the energy accumulation rate, but not the strength, which is not a physical parameter since it cannot be measured or calculated. The possibility of continuous control of this ratio is due to the spontaneous emission of photons by metastable atoms. The article presents calculation examples of the destruction of energy and photographs due to the action of photons emitted during the atomic-proton reaction.

Keywords: atomic-proton reaction, precursors of man-made disasters, strain, stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Vhuhwavho Gadisi, Rebecca Alowo, German Nkhonjera

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This article sets out to detail an investigation of groundwater management in the Juksei Catchment of South Africa through spatial mapping of key hydrological relationships, interactions, and parameters in catchments. The Department of Water Affairs (DWA) noted gaps in the implementation of the South African National Water Act 1998: article 16, including the lack of appropriate models for dealing with water quantity parameters. For this reason, this research conducted a drastic GIS-based groundwater assessment to improve groundwater monitoring system in the Juksei River basin catchment of South Africa. The methodology employed was a mixed-methods approach/design that involved the use of DRASTIC analysis, questionnaire, literature review and observations to gather information on how to help people who use the Juskei River. GIS (geographical information system) mapping was carried out using a three-parameter DRASTIC (Depth to water, Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, Hydraulic conductivity) vulnerability methodology. In addition, the developed vulnerability map was subjected to sensitivity analysis as a validation method. This approach included single-parameter sensitivity, sensitivity to map deletion, and correlation analysis of DRASTIC parameters. The findings were that approximately 5.7% (45km2) of the area in the northern part of the Juksei watershed is highly vulnerable. Approximately 53.6% (428.8 km^2) of the basin is also at high risk of groundwater contamination. This area is mainly located in the central, north-eastern, and western areas of the sub-basin. The medium and low vulnerability classes cover approximately 18.1% (144.8 km2) and 21.7% (168 km2) of the Jukskei River, respectively. The shallow groundwater of the Jukskei River belongs to a very vulnerable area. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water depth, water recharge, aquifer environment, soil, and topography were the main factors contributing to the vulnerability assessment. The conclusion is that the final vulnerability map indicates that the Juksei catchment is highly susceptible to pollution, and therefore, protective measures are needed for sustainable management of groundwater resources in the study area.

Keywords: contamination, DRASTIC, groundwater, vulnerability, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Deinzel R. Uezono, Vivien Fe F. Fadrilan-Camacho, Bianca Margarita L. Medina, Antonio Domingo R. Reario, Trisha M. Salcedo, Luke Wesley P. Borromeo

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The environment of health care workers is considered one of the most hazardous settings due to the nature of their work. In developing countries especially, the Philippines, this continues to be overlooked in terms of programs and services on occupational health and safety (OHS). One possible reason for this is the existing information gap on OHS which limits data comparability and impairs effective monitoring and assessment of interventions. To address this gap, there is a need to determine the current conditions of Filipino health care workers in their workplace. This descriptive cross-sectional study assessed the occupational health and safety conditions of health care workers in barangay health centers in a selected city in Metro Manila, Philippines by: (1) determining the hazards present in the workplace; (2) determining the most common self-reported medical problems; and (3) describing the elements of an OHS system based on the six building blocks of health system. Assessment was done through walkthrough survey, self-administered questionnaire, and key informant interview. Data analysis was done using Epi Info 7 and NVivo 11. Results revealed different health hazards present in the workplace particularly biological hazards (exposure to sick patients and infectious specimens), physical hazards (inadequate space and/or lighting), chemical hazards (toxic reagents and flammable chemicals), and ergonomic hazards (activities requiring repetitive motion and awkward posture). Additionally, safety hazards (improper capping of syringe and lack of fire safety provisions) were also observed. Meanwhile, the most commonly self-reported chronic diseases among health care workers (N=336) were hypertension (20.24%, n=68) and diabetes (12.50%, n=42). Top commonly self-reported symptoms were colds (66.07%, n=222), coughs (63.10%, n=212), headache (55.65%, n=187), and muscle pain (50.60%, n=170) while other diseases were influenza (16.96%, n=57) and UTI (15.48%, n=52). In terms of the elements of the OHS system, a general policy on occupational health and safety was found to be lacking and in effect, an absence of health and safety committee overseeing the implementing and monitoring of the policy. No separate budget specific for OHS programs and services was also found to be a limitation. As a result, no OHS personnel and trainings/seminar were identified. No established information system for OHS was in place. In conclusion, health and safety hazards were observed to be present across the barangay health centers visited in a selected city in Metro Manila. Medical conditions identified as most commonly self-reported were hypertension and diabetes for chronic diseases; colds, coughs, headache, and muscle pain for medical symptoms; and influenza and UTI for other diseases. As for the elements of the occupational health and safety system, there was a lack in the general components of the six building blocks of the health system.

Keywords: health hazards, occupational health and safety, occupational health and safety system, safety hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Amirhossein Dodankeh, Hadi Dabiryan, Saeed Hamze

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Using fabrics to reinforce composites considerably leads to improved mechanical properties, including resistance to the impact load and the energy absorption of composites. Warp-knitted spacer fabrics (WKSF) are fabrics consisting of two layers of warp-knitted fabric connected by pile yarns. These connections create a space between the layers filled by pile yarns and give the fabric a three-dimensional shape. Today because of the unique properties of spacer fabrics, they are widely used in the transportation, construction, and sports industries. Polyurethane (PU) foams are commonly used as energy absorbers, but WKSF has much better properties in moisture transfer, compressive properties, and lower heat resistance than PU foam. It seems that the use of warp-knitted spacer fabric reinforced PU foam (WKSFRF) can lead to the production and use of composite, which has better properties in terms of energy absorption from the foam, its mold formation is enhanced, and its mechanical properties have been improved. In this paper, the energy absorption efficiency (EAE) of WKSFRF under low-velocity impact is investigated experimentally. The contribution of the effect of each of the structural parameters of the WKSF on the absorption of impact energy has also been investigated. For this purpose, WKSF with different structures such as two different thicknesses, small and large mesh sizes, and position of the meshes facing each other and not facing each other were produced. Then 6 types of composite samples with different structural parameters were fabricated. The physical properties of samples like weight per unit area and fiber volume fraction of composite were measured for 3 samples of any type of composites. Low-velocity impact with an initial energy of 5 J was carried out on 3 samples of any type of composite. The output of the low-velocity impact test is acceleration-time (A-T) graph with a lot deviation point, in order to achieve the appropriate results, these points were removed using the FILTFILT function of MATLAB R2018a. Using Newtonian laws of physics force-displacement (F-D) graph was drawn from an A-T graph. We know that the amount of energy absorbed is equal to the area under the F-D curve. Determination shows the maximum energy absorption is 2.858 J which is related to the samples reinforced with fabric with large mesh, high thickness, and not facing of the meshes relative to each other. An index called energy absorption efficiency was defined, which means absorption energy of any kind of our composite divided by its fiber volume fraction. With using this index, the best EAE between the samples is 21.6 that occurs in the sample with large mesh, high thickness, and meshes facing each other. Also, the EAE of this sample is 15.6% better than the average EAE of other composite samples. Generally, the energy absorption on average has been increased 21.2% by increasing the thickness, 9.5% by increasing the size of the meshes from small to big, and 47.3% by changing the position of the meshes from facing to non-facing.

Keywords: composites, energy absorption efficiency, foam, geometrical parameters, low-velocity impact, warp-knitted spacer fabric

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Stefan Fuchs

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Against the backdrop of the proliferation of shopping malls in Japan during the last two decades, this paper presents the results of an ethnography conducted at a recently built suburban shopping mall in Western Tokyo. Through the analysis of the lived experiences of local residents, mall customers and the mall management this paper evaluates the benefits and disadvantages of the Business Improvement District (BID) model, which was implemented as urban redevelopment strategy in the area surrounding the shopping mall. The results of this research project show that while the BID model has in some respects contributed to the economic prosperity and to the perceived convenience of the area, it has led to gentrification and the redevelopment shows some deficiencies with regard to the inclusion of the elderly population as well as to the democratization of the decision-making process within the area. In Japan, shopping malls have been steadily growing both in size and number since a series of deregulation policies was introduced in the year 2000 in an attempt to push the domestic economy and to rejuvenate urban landscapes. Shopping malls have thereby become defining spaces of the built environment and are arguably important places of social interaction. Notwithstanding the vital role they play as factors of urban transformation, they have been somewhat overlooked in the research on Japan; especially with respect to their meaning for people’s everyday lives. By examining the ways, people make use of space in a shopping mall the research project presented in this paper addresses this gap in the research. Moreover, the research site of this research project is one of the few BIDs of Japan and the results presented in this paper can give indication on the scope of the future applicability of this urban redevelopment model. The data presented in this research was collected during a nine-months ethnographic fieldwork in and around the shopping mall. This ethnography includes semi-structured interviews with ten key informants as well as direct and participant observations examining the lived experiences and perceptions of people living, shopping or working at the shopping mall. The analysis of the collected data focused on recurring themes aiming at ultimately capturing different perspectives on the same aspects. In this manner, the research project documents the social agency of different groups within one communal network. The analysis of the perceptions towards the urban redevelopment around the shopping mall has shown that mainly the mall customers and large businesses benefit from the BID redevelopment model. While local residents benefit to some extent from their neighbourhood becoming more convenient for shopping they perceive themselves as being disadvantaged by changing demographics due to rising living expenses, the general noise level and the prioritisation of a certain customer segment or age group at the shopping mall. Although the shopping mall examined in this research project is just an example, the findings suggest that in future urban redevelopment politics have to provide incentives for landowners and developing companies to think of other ways of transforming underdeveloped areas.

Keywords: business improvement district, ethnography, shopping mall, urban redevelopment

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Anatoliy A. Alabugin, Nikolay K. Topuzov, Sergei V. Aliukov

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It is well known, that while we do a quantitative evaluation of the quality control of some economic processes (in particular, resource saving) with help innovation factors, there are three groups of problems: high uncertainty of indicators of the quality management, their considerable ambiguity, and high costs to provide a large-scale research. These problems are defined by the use of contradictory objectives of enhancing of the quality control in accordance with innovation factors and preservation of economic stability of the enterprise. The most acutely, such factors are felt in the countries lagging behind developed economies of the world according to criteria of innovativeness and effectiveness of management of the resource saving. In our opinion, the following two methods for reconciling of the above-mentioned objectives and reducing of conflictness of the problems are to solve this task most effectively: 1) the use of paradigms and concepts of evolutionary improvement of quality of resource-saving management in the cycle "from the project of an innovative product (technology) - to its commercialization and update parameters of customer value"; 2) the application of the so-called integrative-cyclical approach which consistent with complexity and type of the concept, to studies allowing to get quantitative assessment of the stages of achieving of the consistency of these objectives (from baseline of imbalance, their compromise to achievement of positive synergies). For implementation, the following mathematical tools are included in the integrative-cyclical approach: index-factor analysis (to identify the most relevant factors); regression analysis of relationship between the quality control and the factors; the use of results of the analysis in the model of fuzzy sets (to adjust the feature space); method of non-parametric statistics (for a decision on the completion or repetition of the cycle in the approach in depending on the focus and the closeness of the connection of indicator ranks of disbalance of purposes). The repetition is performed after partial substitution of technical and technological factors ("hard") by management factors ("soft") in accordance with our proposed methodology. Testing of the proposed approach has shown that in comparison with the world practice there are opportunities to improve the quality of resource-saving management using innovation factors. We believe that the implementation of this promising research, to provide consistent management decisions for reducing the severity of the above-mentioned contradictions and increasing the validity of the choice of resource-development strategies in terms of parameters of quality management and sustainability of enterprise, is perspective. Our existing experience in the field of quality resource-saving management and the achieved level of scientific competence of the authors allow us to hope that the use of the integrative-cyclical approach to the study and evaluation of the resulting and factor indicators will help raise the level of resource-saving characteristics up to the value existing in the developed economies of post-industrial type.

Keywords: integrative-cyclical approach, quality control, evaluation, innovation factors. economic sustainability, innovation cycle of management, disbalance of goals of development

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Tomohiko Utsuki, Kyoka Sato

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In emergency medicine, it is recognized that brain resuscitation is very important for the reduction of mortality rate and neurological sequelae. Especially, the control of brain temperature (BT), intracranial pressure (ICP), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) are most required for stabilizing brain’s physiological state in the treatment for such as brain injury, stroke, and encephalopathy. However, the manual control of BT, ICP, and CBF frequently requires the decision and operation of medical staff, relevant to medication and the setting of therapeutic apparatus. Thus, the integration and the automation of the control of those is very effective for not only improving therapeutic effect but also reducing staff burden and medical cost. For realizing such integration and automation, a mathematical model of brain physiological state is necessary as the controlled object in simulations, because the performance test of a prototype of the control system using patients is not ethically allowed. A model of cerebral blood circulation has already been constructed, which is the most basic part of brain physiological state. Also, a migration model of extracellular fluid in brain has been constructed, however the condition that the total volume of intracranial cavity is almost changeless due to the hardness of cranial bone has not been considered in that model. Therefore, in this research, the dynamic migration model of extracellular fluid in brain was constructed on the consideration of the changelessness of intracranial cavity’s total volume. This model is connectable to the cerebral blood circulation model. The constructed model consists of fourteen compartments, twelve of which corresponds to perfused area of bilateral anterior, middle and posterior cerebral arteries, the others corresponds to cerebral ventricles and subarachnoid space. This model enable to calculate the migration of tissue fluid from capillaries to gray matter and white matter, the flow of tissue fluid between compartments, the production and absorption of cerebrospinal fluid at choroid plexus and arachnoid granulation, and the production of metabolic water. Further, the volume, the colloid concentration, and the tissue pressure of/in each compartment are also calculable by solving 40-dimensional non-linear simultaneous differential equations. In this research, the obtained model was analyzed for its validation under the four condition of a normal adult, an adult with higher cerebral capillary pressure, an adult with lower cerebral capillary pressure, and an adult with lower colloid concentration in cerebral capillary. In the result, calculated fluid flow, tissue volume, colloid concentration, and tissue pressure were all converged to suitable value for the set condition within 60 minutes at a maximum. Also, because these results were not conflict with prior knowledge, it is certain that the model can enough represent physiological state of brain under such limited conditions at least. One of next challenges is to integrate this model and the already constructed cerebral blood circulation model. This modification enable to simulate CBF and ICP more precisely due to calculating the effect of blood pressure change to extracellular fluid migration and that of ICP change to CBF.

Keywords: dynamic model, cerebral extracellular migration, brain resuscitation, automatic control

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Igor Guatelli

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The universe of aesthetic perception entails impasses about sensitive divergences that each text or visual object may be subjected to. If approached through intertextuality that is not based on the misleading notion of kinships or similarities a priori admissible, the possibility of anachronistic, heterogeneous - and non-diachronic - assemblies can enhance the emergence of interval movements, intermediate, and conflicting, conducive to a method of reading, interpreting, and assigning meaning that escapes the rigid antinomies of the mere being and non-being of things. In negative, they operate in a relationship built by the lack of an adjusted meaning set by their positive existences, with no remainders; the generated interval becomes the remnant of each of them; it is the opening that obscures the stable positions of each one. Without the negative of absence, of that which is always missing or must be missing in a text, concept, or image made positive by history, nothing is perceived beyond what has been already given. Pairings or binary oppositions cannot lead only to functional syntheses; on the contrary, methodological disturbances accumulated by the approximation of signs and entities can initiate a process of becoming as an opening to an unforeseen other, transformation until a moment when the difficulties of [re]conciliation become the mainstay of a future of that sign/entity, not envisioned a priori. A counter-history can emerge from these unprecedented, misadjusted approaches, beginnings of unassigned injunctions and disjunctions, in short, difficult alliances that open cracks in a supposedly cohesive history, chained in its apparent linearity with no remains, understood as a categorical historical imperative. Interstices are minority fields that, because of their opening, are capable of causing opacity in that which, apparently, presents itself with irreducible clarity. Resulting from an incomplete and maladjusted [at the least dual] marriage between the signs/entities that originate them, this interval may destabilize and cause disorder in these entities and their own meanings. The interstitials offer a hyphenated relationship: a simultaneous union and separation, a spacing between the entity’s identity and its otherness or, alterity. One and the other may no longer be seen without the crack or fissure that now separates them, uniting, by a space-time lapse. Ontological, semantic shifts are caused by this fissure, an absence between one and the other, one with and against the other. Based on an improbable approximation between some conceptual and semantic shifts within the design production of architect Rem Koolhaas and the textual production of the philosopher Jacques Derrida, this article questions the notion of unity, coherence, affinity, and complementarity in the process of construction of thought from these ontological, epistemological, and semiological fissures that rattle the signs/entities and their stable meanings. Fissures in a thought that is considered coherent, cohesive, formatted are the negativity that constitutes the interstices that allow us to move towards what still remains as non-identity, which allows us to begin another story.

Keywords: clearing, interstice, negative, remnant, spectrum

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Authors: Nicholas Fieseler

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The nature of religion implicit in popular culture is relevant both in and out of the university. The traditional rules-based conception of religion and the ethical systems that emerge from them do not necessarily convey the behavior of daily life as it exists apart from spaces deemed sacred. This paper proposes to examine the religion implicit in the popular culture phenomenon of professional wrestling and how that affects the understanding of popular religion. Pro wrestling, while frequently dismissed, offers a unique manner through which to re-examine religion in popular culture. A global phenomenon, pro wrestling occupies a distinct space in numerous countries and presents a legitimate reflection of human behavior cross-culturally on a scale few other phenomena can equal. Given its global viewership of millions, it should be recognized as a significant means of interpreting the human attraction to violence and its association with religion in general. Hans Urs von Balthasar’s theory of Theodrama will be used to interrogate the inchoate religion within pro wrestling. While Balthasar developed theodrama within the confines of Christian theology; theodrama contains remarkable versatility in its potential utility. Since theodrama re-envisions reality as drama, the actions of every human actor on the stage contributes to the play’s development, and all action contains some transcendent value. It is in this sense that even the “low brow” activity of pro wrestling may be understood in religious terms. Moreover, a pro wrestling storyline acts as a play within a play: the struggles in a pro wrestling match reflect the human attitudes toward life as it exists in the sacred and profane realms. The indistinct lines separating traditionally good (face) from traditionally bad (heel)wrestlers mirror the moral ambiguity in which many people interpret life. This blurred distinction between good and bad, and large segments of an audience’s embrace of the heel wrestlers, reveal ethical constraints that guide the everyday values of pro wrestling spectators, a moral ambivalence that is often overlooked by traditional religious systems, and which has hitherto been neglected in the academic literature on pro wrestling. The significance of interpreting the religion implicit in pro wrestling through a the dramatic lens extends beyond pro wrestling specifically and can examine the religion implicit in popular culture in general. The use of theodrama mitigates the rigid separation often ascribed to areas deemed sacred/ profane, ortranscendent / immanent, enabling a re-evaluation of religion and ethical systems as practiced in popular culture. The use of theodrama will be expressed by utilizing the pro wrestling match as a literary text that reflects the society from which it emerges. This analysis will also reveal the complex nature of religion in popular culture and provides new directions for the academic study of religion. This project consciously bridges the academic and popular realms. The goal of the research is not to add only to the academic literature on implicit religion in popular culture but to publish it in a form which speaks to those outside the standard academic audiences for such work.

Keywords: ethics, popular religion, professional wrestling, theodrama

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Pranav Gulati, Isha Sharma

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Hypertension and hypotension are known to have repercussions on the health of an individual, with hypertension contributing to an increased probability of risk to cardiovascular diseases and hypotension resulting in syncope. This prompts the development of a non-invasive, non-intrusive, continuous and cuff-less blood pressure monitoring system to detect blood pressure variations and to identify individuals with acute and chronic heart ailments, but due to the unavailability of such devices for practical daily use, it becomes difficult to screen and subsequently regulate blood pressure. The complexities which hamper the steady monitoring of blood pressure comprises of the variations in physical characteristics from individual to individual and the postural differences at the site of monitoring. We propose to develop a continuous, comprehensive cardio-analysis tool, based on reflective photoplethysmography (PPG). The proposed device, in the form of an eyewear captures the PPG signal and estimates the systolic and diastolic blood pressure using a sensor positioned near the temporal artery. This system relies on regression models which are based on extraction of key points from a pair of PPG wavelets. The proposed system provides an edge over the existing wearables considering that it allows for uniform contact and pressure with the temporal site, in addition to minimal disturbance by movement. Additionally, the feature extraction algorithms enhance the integrity and quality of the extracted features by reducing unreliable data sets. We tested the system with 12 subjects of which 6 served as the training dataset. For this, we measured the blood pressure using a cuff based BP monitor (Omron HEM-8712) and at the same time recorded the PPG signal from our cardio-analysis tool. The complete test was conducted by using the cuff based blood pressure monitor on the left arm while the PPG signal was acquired from the temporal site on the left side of the head. This acquisition served as the training input for the regression model on the selected features. The other 6 subjects were used to validate the model by conducting the same test on them. Results show that the developed prototype can robustly acquire the PPG signal and can therefore be used to reliably predict blood pressure levels.

Keywords: blood pressure, photoplethysmograph, eyewear, physiological monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Trevor Malambo Simbayi, Diane Hildebrandt, Tonderayi Matambo

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The rapid growth of population in recent decades has resulted in an increased need for energy to meet human activities. As energy demands increase, the need for other sources of energy other than fossil fuels, increases in turn. Furthermore, environmental concerns such as global warming due to the use of fossil fuels, depleting fossil fuel reserves and the rising cost of oil have contributed to an increased interest in renewables sources of energy. Biogas is a renewable source of energy produced through the process of anaerobic digestion (AD) and it offers a two-fold solution; it provides an environmentally friendly source of energy and its production helps to reduce the amount of organic waste taken to landfills. This research seeks to address the waste management problem caused by an aquatic weed called water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) at the Hartbeespoort (Harties) Dam in the North West Province of South Africa, through biogas production of the weed. Water hyacinth is a category 1 invasive species and it is deemed to be the most problematic aquatic weed. This weed is said to double its size in the space of five days. Eutrophication in the Hartbeespoort Dam has manifested itself through the excessive algae bloom and water hyacinth infestation. A large amount of biomass from water hyacinth and algae are generated per annum from the two hundred hectare surface area of the dam exposed to the sun. This biomass creates a waste management problem. Water hyacinth when in full bloom can cover nearly half of the surface of Hartbeespoort Dam. The presence of water hyacinth in the dam has caused economic and environmental problems. Economic activities such as fishing, boating, and recreation, are hampered by the water hyacinth’s prolific growth. This research proposes the use of water hyacinth as a feedstock or substrate for biogas production in order to find an economic and environmentally friendly means of waste management for the communities living around the Hartbeespoort Dam. In order to achieve this objective, water hyacinth will be collected from the dam and it will be mechanically pretreated before anaerobic digestion. Pretreatment is required for lignocellulosic materials like water hyacinth because such materials are called recalcitrant solid materials. Cow manure will be employed as a source of microorganisms needed for biogas production to occur. Once the water hyacinth and the cow dung are mixed, they will be placed in laboratory anaerobic reactors. Biogas production will be monitored daily through the downward displacement of water. Characterization of the substrates (cow manure and water hyacinth) to determine the nitrogen, sulfur, carbon and hydrogen, total solids (TS) and volatile solids (VS). Liquid samples from the anaerobic digesters will be collected and analyzed for volatile fatty acids (VFAs) composition by means of a liquid gas chromatography machine.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas, waste management, water hyacinth

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Alaa T. Ali, Nevine H. Kheir El Din, Ehab S. Abdelhamid, Ahmed E. Amr

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Objective: Severe alveolar bone resorption is usually associated with a deficient amount of soft tissues. soft tissue expansion is introduced to provide an adequate amount of soft tissue over the grafted area. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of sub-periosteal self-inflating osmotic tissue expanders used as preparatory surgery before horizontal alveolar ridge augmentation using autogenous onlay block bone graft. Methods: A prospective randomized controlled clinical trial was performed. Sixteen partially edentulous patients demanding horizontal bone augmentation in the anterior maxilla were randomly assigned to horizontal ridge augmentation with autogenous bone block grafts harvested from the mandibular symphysis. For the test group, soft tissue expanders were placed sub-periosteally before horizontal ridge augmentation. Impressions were taken before and after STE, and the cast models were optically scanned and superimposed to be used for volumetric analysis. Horizontal ridge augmentation was carried out after STE completion. For the control group, a periosteal releasing incision was performed during bone augmentation procedures. Implants were placed in both groups at re-entry surgery after six months period. A core biopsy was taken. Histomorphometric assessment for newly formed bone surface area, mature collagen area fraction, the osteoblasts count, and blood vessel count were performed. The change in alveolar ridge width was evaluated through bone caliper and CBCT. Results: Soft tissue expander successfully provides a Surplus amount of soft tissues in 5 out of 8 patients in the test group. Complications during the expansion period were perforation through oral mucosa occurred in two patients. Infection occurred in one patient. The mean soft tissue volume gain was 393.9 ± 322mm. After 6 months. The mean horizontal bone gains for the test and control groups were 3.14 mm and 3.69 mm, respectively. Conclusion: STE with a sub-periosteal approach is an applicable method to achieve an additional soft tissue and to reduce bone block graft exposure and wound dehiscence.

Keywords: soft tissue expander, ridge augmentation, block graft, symphysis bone block

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Authors: Ergin Toros, Manar Aslan

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This study was planned as a descriptive study in order to learn the opinions of the students who are studying in nursing undergraduate program about their theoretical/practical lessons and departments. The education in the undergraduate nursing programs has great importance because it contains the knowledge and skills to prepare student nurses to the clinic in the future. In order to provide quality-nursing services in the future, the quality of nursing education should be measured, and opinions of student nurses about education should be taken. The research population was composed of students educated in a university with 1-4 years of theoretical and clinical education (N=550), and the sample was composed of 460 students that accepted to take part in the study. It was reached to 83.6% of target population. Data collected through a survey developed by the researchers. Survey consists of 48 questions about sociodemographic characteristics (9 questions), theoretical courses (9 questions), laboratory applications (7 questions), clinical education (14 questions) and services provided by the faculty (9 questions). It was determined that 83.3% of the nursing students found the nursing profession to be suitable for them, 53% of them selected nursing because of easy job opportunity, and 48.9% of them stayed in state dormitory. Regarding the theoretical courses, 84.6% of the students were determined to agree that the question ‘Course schedule is prepared before the course and published on the university web page.’ 28.7% of them were determined to do not agree that the question ‘Feedback is given to students about the assignments they prepare.’. It has been determined that 41,5% of the students agreed that ‘The time allocated to laboratory applications is sufficient.’ Students said that physical conditions in laboratory (41,5%), and the materials used are insufficient (44.6%), and ‘The number of students in the group is not appropriate for laboratory applications.’ (45.2%). 71.3% of the students think that the nurses view in the clinics the students as a tool to remove the workload, 40.7% of them reported that nurses in the clinic area did not help through the purposes of the course, 39.6% of them said that nurses' communication with students is not good. 37.8% of students stated that nurses did not provide orientation to students, 37.2% of them think that nurses are not role models for students. 53.7% of the students stated that the incentive and support for the student exchange program were insufficient., %48 of the students think that career planning services, %47.2 security services,%45.4 the advisor spent time with students are not enough. It has been determined that nursing students are most disturbed by the approach of the nurses in the clinical area within the undergraduate education program. The clinical area education which is considered as an integral part of nursing education is important and affect to student satisfaction.

Keywords: nursing education, student, clinical area, opinion

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: A. Almurshedi, M. Atherton, C. Mares, T. Stolarski, M. Miyatake

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Transportation and handling of delicate and lightweight objects is currently a significant issue in some industries. Two common contactless movement prototype designs, ultrasonic transducer design and vibrating plate design, are compared. Both designs are based on the method of squeeze-film levitation, and this study aims to identify the limitations, and challenges of each. The designs are evaluated in terms of levitation capabilities, and characteristics. To this end, theoretical and experimental explorations are made. It is demonstrated that the ultrasonic transducer prototype design is better suited to the terms of levitation capabilities. However, the design has some operating and mechanical designing difficulties. For making accurate industrial products in micro-fabrication and nanotechnology contexts, such as semiconductor silicon wafers, micro-components and integrated circuits, non-contact oil-free, ultra-precision and low wear transport along the production line is crucial for enabling. One of the designs (design A) is called the ultrasonic chuck, for which an ultrasonic transducer (Langevin, FBI 28452 HS) comprises the main part. Whereas the other (design B), is a vibrating plate design, which consists of a plain rectangular plate made of Aluminium firmly fastened at both ends. The size of the rectangular plate is 200x100x2 mm. In addition, four rounded piezoelectric actuators of size 28 mm diameter with 0.5 mm thickness are glued to the underside of the plate. The vibrating plate is clamped at both ends in the horizontal plane through a steel supporting structure. In addition, the dynamic of levitation using the designs (A and B) has been investigated based on the squeeze film levitation (SFL). The input apparatus that is used with designs consist of a sine wave signal generator connected to an amplifier type ENP-1-1U (Echo Electronics). The latter has to be utilised to magnify the sine wave voltage that is produced by the signal generator. The measurements of the maximum levitation for three different semiconductor wafers of weights 52, 70 and 88 [g] for design A are 240, 205 and 187 [um], respectively. Whereas the physical results show that the average separation distance for a disk of 5 [g] weight for design B reaches 70 [um]. By using the methodology of squeeze film levitation, it is possible to hold an object in a non-contact manner. The analyses of the investigation outcomes signify that the non-contact levitation of design A provides more improvement than design B. However, design A is more complicated than design B in terms of its manufacturing. In order to identify an adequate non-contact SFL design, a comparison between two common such designs has been adopted for the current investigation. Specifically, the study will involve making comparisons in terms of the following issues: floating component geometries and material type constraints; final created pressure distributions; dangerous interactions with the surrounding space; working environment constraints; and complication and compactness of the mechanical design. Considering all these matters is essential for proficiently distinguish the better SFL design.

Keywords: ANSYS, floating, piezoelectric, squeeze-film

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Authors: Gyoomi Kim, Jiyoung Bae

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The purpose of this study was to propose a framework that verifies the structural relationships among students’ use of digital English learning strategy (DELS), affective domains, and their individual variables. The study developed a hypothetical model based on previous studies on language learning strategy use as well as digital language learning. The participants were 720 Korean high school students and 430 university students. The instrument was a self-response questionnaire that contained 70 question items based on Oxford’s SILL (Strategy Inventory for Language Learning) as well as the previous studies on language learning strategies in digital learning environment in order to measure DELS and affective domains. The collected data were analyzed through structural equation modeling (SEM). This study used quantitative data analysis procedures: Explanatory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Firstly, the EFA was conducted in order to verify the hypothetical model; the factor analysis was conducted preferentially to identify the underlying relationships between measured variables of DELS and the affective domain in the EFA process. The hypothetical model was established with six indicators of learning strategies (memory, cognitive, compensation, metacognitive, affective, and social strategies) under the latent variable of the use of DELS. In addition, the model included four indicators (self-confidence, interests, self-regulation, and attitude toward digital learning) under the latent variable of learners’ affective domain. Secondly, the CFA was used to determine the suitability of data and research models, so all data from the present study was used to assess model fits. Lastly, the model also included individual learner factors as covariates and five constructs selected were learners’ gender, the level of English proficiency, the duration of English learning, the period of using digital devices, and previous experience of digital English learning. The results verified from SEM analysis proposed a theoretical model that showed the structural relationships between Korean students’ use of DELS and their affective domains. Therefore, the results of this study help ESL/EFL teachers understand how learners use and develop appropriate learning strategies in digital learning contexts. The pedagogical implication and suggestions for the further study will be also presented.

Keywords: Digital English Learning Strategy, DELS, individual variables, learners' affective domains, Structural Equation Modeling, SEM

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Authors: Tanja Ecken, Laura Fricke, Anika Steger, Maren M. Michaelsen, Tobias Esch

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Studies and applied experiences evidence severe and traumatic accidents to not only require physical rehabilitation and recovery but also to necessitate a psychological adaption and reorganization to the changed living conditions. Neurobiological models underpinning the experience of happiness and satisfaction postulate life shocks to potentially enhance the experience of happiness and life satisfaction, i.e., posttraumatic growth (PTG). This present study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying psychological processes of PTG and to outline its consequences on subjective happiness and life satisfaction. To explore the aforementioned, Esch’s (2022) ABC Model was used as guidance for the development of a questionnaire assessing changes in happiness and life satisfaction and for a schematic model postulating the development of PTG in the context of paraplegia. Two-stage qualitative interview procedures explored participants’ experiences of paraplegia. Specifically, narrative, semi-structured interviews (N=28) focused on the time before and after the accident, the availability of supportive resources, and potential changes in the perception of happiness and life satisfaction. Qualitative analysis (Grounded Theory) indicated an initial phase of reorganization was followed by a gradual psychological adaption to novel, albeit reduced, opportunities in life. Participants reportedly experienced a ‘compelled’ slowing down and elements of mindfulness, subsequently instilling a sense of gratitude and joy in relation to life’s presumed trivialities. Despite physical limitations and difficulties, participants reported an enhanced ability to relate to oneself and others and a reduction of perceived every day nuisances. Concluding, PTG can be experienced in response to severe, traumatic life events and has the potential to enrich the lives of affected persons in numerous, unexpected and yet challenging ways. PTG appears to be spectrum comprised of an interplay of internal and external resources underpinned by neurobiological processes. Participants experienced PTG irrelevant of age, gender, marital status, income or level of education.

Keywords: inhibition theory, posttraumatic growth, trauma, stress, life satisfaction, subjective happiness, traumatic life events, paraplegia

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Authors: Mrinal Gupta, Mohammad Rumman, Babita Singh Abbas Ali Mahdi, Shivani Pandey

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Introduction: Berberine (BBR), a bioactive compound isolated from Coptidis Rhizoma, possesses diverse pharmacological activities, including anti-bacterial, anti-inflammatory, antitumor, hypolipidemic, and anti-diabetic. However, its role as an anti-diabetic agent in animal models of dexamethasone (Dex)-induced diabetes remains unknown. Studies have shown that natural compounds, including aloe, caper, cinnamon, cocoa, green and black tea, and turmeric, can be used for treating Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared to conventional drugs, natural compounds have fewer side effects and are easily available. Herein, we studied the anti-diabetic effects of BBR in a mice model of Dex-induced diabetes. Methods: HepG2 cell line was used for glucose release and glycogen synthesis studies. Cell proliferation was measured by methylthiotetrazole (MTT) assay. For animal studies, mice were treated with Dex (2 mg/kg, i.m.) for 30 days and the effect of BBR at the doses 100, 200, and 500 mg/kg (p.o.) was analyzed. Glucose, insulin, and pyruvate tests were performed to evaluate the development of the diabetic model. An echo MRI was performed to assess the fat mass. Further, to elucidate the mechanism of action of BBR, mRNA expression of genes regulating gluconeogenesis, glucose uptake, and glycolysis were analyzed. Results: In vitro BBR had no impact on cell viability up to a concentration of 50μM. Moreover, BBR suppressed the hepatic glucose release and improved glucose tolerance in HepG2 cells. In vivo, BBR improved glucose homeostasis in diabetic mice, as evidenced by enhanced glucose clearance, increased glycolysis, elevated glucose uptake, and decreased gluconeogenesis. Further, Dex treatment increased the total fat mass in mice, which was ameliorated by BBR treatment. Conclusion: BBR improves glucose tolerance by increasing glucose clearance, inhibiting hepatic glucose release, and decreasing obesity. Thus, BBR may become a potential therapeutic agent for treating glucocorticoid-induced diabetes and obesity in the future.

Keywords: glucocorticoid, hyperglycemia, berberine, HepG2 cells, insulin resistance, glucose

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: R. B. B. Samantha Ramachandra, L. D. J. Upul Senarath, S. H. Padmal De Silva

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Dietary pattern largely differs over countries and even within a country, it shows cultural differences. The dietary pattern changes the energy consumption and micronutrient intake, directly affects the pregnancy outcome. The dietary diversity was used as an indirect measure to assess micronutrient adequacy for pregnant mothers in this study. The study was conducted as a baseline survey with the objective of designing an intervention to improve the dietary diversity of pregnant mothers in Sri Lanka. The survey was conducted in Kalutara district of Sri Lanka in 2015 among 769 pregnant mothers at different gestational ages. Dietary diversity questionnaire developed by Food and Agricultural Organization’s (FAO) Food and Nutrition technical Assistance (FANTA) II project, recommended for cross-country use with adaptations was used for data collection. Trained data collectors met pregnant mothers at field ante-natal clinic and questioned on last 24hr dietary recall with portion size and coded food items to identify the diversity. Pregnant mothers were identified from randomly selected 21 clusters of public health midwife areas. 81.5% mothers (n=627) in the sample had been registered at Public Health Midwife (PHM) before 8 weeks of gestation. 24.4% of mothers were with low starting BMI and 22.7% mothers were with high starting BMI. 47.6% (n=388) mothers had abstained from at least one food item during the pregnancy. The food group with the highest consumption was rice (98.4%) followed by sugar (89.9%). 76.1% mothers had consumed milk, 73% consumed fish and sea foods. Consumption of green leaves was 52% and Vit A rich foods consumed only by 49% mothers. Animal organs, flesh meat and egg all showed low prevalence as 4.7%, 21.6% and 20% respectively. Consumption of locally grown roots, nut, legumes all showed very low prevalence. Consumption of 6 or more food groups was considered as good dietary diversity (DD), 4 to 5 food groups as moderate diversity and 3 or less food groups as poor diversity by FAO FANTA II project. 42.1% mothers demonstrated good DD while another 42.1% recorded moderate diversity. Working mothers showed better DD (51.6%, n=82/159) compared to housewives in the sample (chi = 10.656a,. df=2, p=0.005). The good DD showed gradual improvement from 43.1% to 55.5% along the poorest to richest wealth index (Chi=48.045, df=8 and p=0.000). DD showed significant association with the ethnicity and Moors showed the lowest DD. DD showed no association with the home gardening even though where better diversity expected among those who have home gardening (p=0.548). Sri Lanka is a country where many food items can be grown in the garden and semi-urban setting have adequate space for gardening. Many Sri Lankan mothers do not add homegrown items in their meal. At the same time, their consumption of animal food shows low prevalence. The DD of most of the mothers being either moderate or low (58%) may result from inadequate micro nutrient intake during pregnancy. It is recommended that adding green leaves, locally grown vegetables, roots, nuts and legumes can help increasing the DD of Sri Lankan mothers at low cost.

Keywords: dietary diversity, pregnant mothers, micro-nutrient, food groups

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Authors: Mateen A Khan, Taj Mohammad, Md. Imtaiyaz Hassan

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Alzheimer’s disease is characterized by the accumulation of the processing products of the amyloid beta peptide cleaved by amyloid precursor protein (APP). Iron increases the synthesis of amyloid beta peptides, which is why iron is present in Alzheimer's disease patients' amyloid plaques. Iron misregulation in the brain is linked to the overexpression of APP protein, which is directly related to amyloid-β aggregation in Alzheimer’s disease. The APP 5'-UTR region encodes a functional iron-responsive element (IRE) stem-loop that represents a potential target for modulating amyloid production. Targeted regulation of APP gene expression through the modulation of 5’-UTR sequence function represents a novel approach for the potential treatment of AD because altering APP translation can be used to improve both the protective brain iron balance and provide anti-amyloid efficacy. The molecular docking analysis of APP IRE RNA with eukaryotic translation initiation factors yields several models exhibiting substantial binding affinity. The finding revealed that the interaction involved a set of functionally active residues within the binding sites of eIF4F. Notably, APP IRE RNA and eIF4F interaction were stabilized by multiple hydrogen bonds with residues of APP IRE RNA and eIF4F. It was evident that APP IRE RNA exhibited a structural complementarity that tightly fit within binding pockets of eIF4F. The simulation studies further revealed the stability of the complexes formed between RNA and eIF4F, which is crucial for assessing the strength of these interactions and subsequent roles in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, MD simulations would capture conformational changes in the IRE RNA and protein molecules during their interactions, illustrating the mechanism of interaction, conformational change, and unbinding events and how it may affect aggregation propensity and subsequent therapeutic implications. Our binding studies correlated well with the translation efficiency of APP mRNA. Overall, the outcome of this study suggests that the genomic modification and/or inhibiting the expression of amyloid protein by targeting APP IRE RNA can be a viable strategy to identify potential therapeutic targets for AD and subsequently be exploited for developing novel therapeutic approaches.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, Protein-RNA interaction analysis, molecular docking simulations, conformational dynamics, binding stability, binding kinetics, protein synthesis.

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Sami W. Tabsh

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The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.

Keywords: code, flexure, limit states, random variables, reinforced concrete, reliability, reliability index, shear, structural safety

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Authors: Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar

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Artificial wetlands play an important role at Guasca Municipality in Colombia, not only because they are used for the agroindustry, but also because more than 45 species were found, some of which are endemic and migratory birds. Remote sensing was used to determine the changes in the area occupied by water of artificial wetlands by means of Aster and Modis images for different time periods. Evapotranspiration was also determined by three methods: Surface Energy Balance System-Su (SEBS) algorithm, Surface Energy Balance- Bastiaanssen (SEBAL) algorithm, and Potential Evapotranspiration- FAO. Empirical equations were also developed to determine the relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) versus net radiation, ambient temperature and rain with an obtained R2 of 0.83. Groundwater level fluctuations on a daily basis were studied as well. Data from a piezometer placed next to the wetland were fitted with rain changes (with two weather stations located at the proximities of the wetlands) by means of multiple regression and time series analysis, the R2 from the calculated and measured values resulted was higher than 0.98. Information from nearby weather stations provided information for ordinary kriging as well as the results for the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) developed by using PCI software. Standard models (exponential, spherical, circular, gaussian, linear) to describe spatial variation were tested. Ordinary Cokriging between height and rain variables were also tested, to determine if the accuracy of the interpolation would increase. The results showed no significant differences giving the fact that the mean result of the spherical function for the rain samples after ordinary kriging was 58.06 and a standard deviation of 18.06. The cokriging using for the variable rain, a spherical function; for height variable, the power function and for the cross variable (rain and height), the spherical function had a mean of 57.58 and a standard deviation of 18.36. Threatens of eutrophication were also studied, given the unconsciousness of neighbours and government deficiency. Water quality was determined over the years; different parameters were studied to determine the chemical characteristics of water. In addition, 600 pesticides were studied by gas and liquid chromatography. Results showed that coliforms, nitrogen, phosphorous and prochloraz were the most significant contaminants.

Keywords: DEM, evapotranspiration, geostatistics, NDVI

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

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The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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Authors: Yan-Shen Yang, Bai-Chen Xie

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Background and significance of the study: Both green power trading schemes and interregional power transmission are effective ways to increase green power absorption and achieve renewable power development goals. China accelerates the construction of interregional power transmission lines and the green power market. A critical issue focusing on the close interaction between these two approaches arises, which can heavily affect the green power quota allocation and renewable power development. Existing studies have not discussed this issue adequately, so it is urgent to figure out their relationship to achieve a suitable power market design and a more reasonable power grid construction.Basic methodologies: We develop an equilibrium model of the power market in China to analyze the coupling effect of these two approaches as well as their influence on power generation and interregional transmission in China. Our model considers both the Tradable green certificate (TGC) and green power market, which consists of producers, consumers in the market, and an independent system operator (ISO) minimizing the total system cost. Our equilibrium model includes the decision optimization process of each participant. To reformulate the models presented as a single-level one, we replace the producer, consumer, ISO, and market equilibrium problems with their Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions, which is further reformulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and solved in Gurobi solver. Major findings: The result shows that: (1) the green power market can significantly promote renewable power absorption while the TGC market provides a more flexible way for green power trading. (2) The phenomena of inefficient occupation and no available transmission lines appear simultaneously. The existing interregional transmission lines cannot fully meet the demand for wind and solar PV power trading in some areas while the situation is vice versa in other areas. (3) Synchronous implementation of green power and TGC trading mechanism can benefit the development of green power as well as interregional power transmission. (4) The green power transaction exacerbates the unfair distribution of carbon emissions. The Carbon Gini Coefficient is up to 0.323 under the green power market which shows a high Carbon inequality. The eastern coastal region will benefit the most due to its huge demand for external power.

Keywords: green power market, tradable green certificate, interregional power transmission, power market equilibrium model

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Authors: Mona Solvoll, Ragnhild Kr. Olsen

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Background and significance of the study: Newspapers are going through radical changes with increased competition, eroding readerships and declining advertising resulting in plummeting overall revenues. This has lead to a quest for new business models, focusing on monetizing content. This research paper investigates both how local online newspapers have introduced user payment and how the audience has received these changes. Given the role of local media in keeping their communities informed and those in power accountable, their potential impact on civic engagement and cultural integration in local communities, the business model innovations of local media deserves far more research interest. Empirically, the findings are interesting for local journalists, local media managers as well as local advertisers. Basic methodologies: The study is based on interviews with commercial leaders in 20 Norwegian local newspapers in addition to a national survey data from 1600 respondents among local media users. The interviews were conducted in the second half of 2015, while the survey was conducted in September 2016. Theoretically, the study draws on the business model framework. Findings: The analysis indicates that paywalls aim more at reducing digital cannibalisation of print revenue than about creating new digital income. The newspapers are mostly concerned with retaining “old” print subscribers and transform them into digital subscribers. However, this strategy may come at a high price for newspapers if their defensive print strategy drives away younger digital readership and hamper their recruitment potential for new audiences as some previous studies have indicated. Analysis of young reader news habits indicates that attracting the younger audience to traditional local news providers is particularly challenging and that they are more prone to seek alternative news sources than the older audience is. Conclusion: The paywall strategy applied by the local newspapers may be well fitted to stabilise print subscription figures and facilitate more tailored and better services for already existing customers, but far less suited for attracting new ones. The paywall is a short-sighted strategy, which drives away younger readers and paves the road for substitute offerings, particularly Facebook.

Keywords: business model, newspapers, paywall, user payment

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Ludmila A. Gavriliuc, Jerry McLarty, Heather E. Kleiner, J. Michael Mathis

Abstract:

Abstract -- Background: The citrus coumarine Auraptene (Aur) is an effective chemopreventive agent, as manifested in many models of diseases and cancer. Nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor (Nrf2) is an important regulator of genes induced by oxidative stress, such as glutathione S-transferases, heme oxygenase-1, and peroxiredoxin 1, by activating the antioxidant response element (ARE). Genetic and biochemical evidence has demonstrated that glutathione (GSH) and glutathione-dependent enzymes, glutathione reductase (GR), glutathione peroxidases (GPs), glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) are responsible for the control of intracellular reduction-oxidation status and participate in cellular adaptation to oxidative stress. The effect of Aur on the activity of GR, GPs (Se-GP and Se-iGP), and content of GSH in the liver, kidney, and spleen is insufficiently explored. Aim: Our goal was the examination of the Aur influence on the redox-system of GSH in Nrf2 wild type and Nrf2 knockout mice via activation of Nrf2 and ARE. Methods: Twenty female mice, 10 Nrf2 wild-type (WT) and 10 Nrf2 (-/-) knockout (KO), were bred and genotyped for our study. The activity of GR, Se-GP, Se-iGP, GST, G6PD, CytP450 reductase, catalase (Cat), and content of GSH were analyzed in the liver, kidney, and spleen using Spectrophotometry methods. The results of the specific activity of enzymes and the amount of GSH were analyzed with ANOVA and Spearman statistical methods. Results: Aur (200 mg/kg) treatment induced hepatic GST, GR, Se-GP activity and inhibited their activity in the spleen of mice, most likely via activation of the ARE through Nrf2. Activation in kidney Se-GP and G6PD by Aur is also controlled, apparently through Nrf2. Results of the non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis indicated the strong positive correlation between GR and G6PD only in the liver in WT control mice (r=+0.972; p < 0.005) and in the kidney KO control mice (r=+0.958; p < 0.005). The observed low content of GSH in the liver of KO mice indicated an increase in its participation in the neutralization of toxic substances with the absence of induction of GSH-dependent enzymes, such as GST, GR, Se-GP, and Se-iGP. Activation of CytP450 in kidney and spleen and Cat in the liver in KO mice probably revealed another regulatory mechanism for these enzymes. Conclusion: Thereby, obtained results testify that Aur can modulate the activity of genes and antioxidant enzymatic redox-system of GSH, responsible for the control of intracellular reduction-oxidation status.

Keywords: auraptene, glutathione, GST, Nrf2

Procedia PDF Downloads 144