Search results for: selection of risk measures

Authors: Salman Abdul Majeed, Vidur Solanki, Ruqiya Shama Tareen

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BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the way of living as we have known for all strata of society. While disease containment measures imposed by governmental agencies have been instrumental in controlling the spread of the virus, it has had profound collateral impacts on all populations. However, the disruption caused in the lives of one segment of population has been far more damaging than most others: the emotional wellbeing of our child and adolescent populations. This impact was even more pronounced in children who already suffered from neurodevelopmental or psychiatric disorders. In particular, school closures have not only led to profound social isolation, but also negative impacts on normal developmental opportunities and interruptions in mental health services obtained through school systems. It is too soon to understand the full impacts of quarantine, isolation, stress of social detachment and fear of pandemic, but we have started to see the devastating impact on C&A already. This review intends to shed light on the current understanding of psychiatric wellbeing of C&A during COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: Literature search utilizing key words COVID-19 and children, quarantine and children, social isolation, Loneliness, pandemic stress and children, and mental health of children, disease containment measures was carried out. Over 200 articles were identified, out of which 81 articles were included in this review article. RESULTS: The disruption caused by COVID-19 in the lives of C&A is much more damaging and its impact is far reaching. The C&A ED visits for possible suicide attempts have jumped to 22.3% in 2020 and 39.1% during 2021. One study utilizing T1-weighted structural images, computed the thickness of cortical and subcortical structures including amygdala, hippocampus, and nucleus accumbens. The Peri-COVID group showed reduced cortical and subcortical thickness and more advanced brain aging compared to pre pandemic studies. CONCLUSION: Mental health resources for C&A remain under funded, neglected, and inaccessible to population that needs it most. Children with ongoing mental health disorders were impacted worst, along with those with predisposed biopsychosocial risk factors.

Keywords: COVID-19 and children, quarantine and children, social isolation, Loneliness, pandemic stress and children, disease containment measures, mental health of children

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Authors: Daniela Greven, Kathrin Endres, Shugana Sundralingam

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The use of chatbots has hardly been established in B2B companies to date and involves various challenges. The goal of this paper is to identify the biggest obstacles to the successful implementation of chatbots in B2B companies and to develop measures to overcome them. The obstacles are identified by conducting expert interviews within the framework of Eisenhardt's case study research. These are examined through a socio-technical analysis focusing on people, technology, and organization. By means of systematic literature research and in-depth interviews with German chatbot providers and customers of chatbots, measures for overcoming the obstacles are identified. Using interviews with experts from German chatbot providers, the responsible stakeholders of each measure according to the RASCI Responsibility Matrix are identified. The study shows that there are major obstacles in all areas of a socio-technical system that can cause the implementation of a chatbot to fail. A total of 44 implementation obstacles and 58 measures to overcome these obstacles are identified. The study shows that there are major obstacles in the areas of people, technology, and organization of a socio-technical system that can cause the implementation of a chatbot to fail. A holistic view is therefore essential. The results provide firms with a guideline on how to overcome potential obstacles during chatbot implementation in B2B customer service.

Keywords: chatbots, socio-technical analysis, B2B customer service, implementation success factors

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Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

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Authors: Maneesha Pahlani, Najmin Sultana

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A hospital is one of the most suitable places for acquiring an infection because it harbors a high population of virulent strains of microorganisms that may be resistant to antibiotics, especially the prevalence of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) infections. The hospital-acquired infection has become a global challenge. In developed countries, healthcare-associated infections occur in 5-15% of hospitalized clients, affecting 9-37% of those admitted to intensive care units (ICU). A non-experimental descriptive study was conducted among 50 nursing officers working in a selected hospital in Bangalore to assess the nursing officers’ level of knowledge regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections and to associate the pre-test knowledge mean scores of nursing officers with selected socio-demographic variables. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire consisting of socio-demographic data and a structured questionnaire on knowledge regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections. The data was analyzed in terms of frequencies and percentages for the analysis of demographic variables and computing chi-square to determine the association between knowledge means scores and selected demographic variables. The study findings revealed that the nursing officer had an overall good level of knowledge (63.05%) regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections, and there is no significant association found between the level of knowledge mean scores for prevention and management of MRSA infection with the selected socio-demographic variables. However, the categorization of knowledge items showed that the nursing officer must thoroughly receive education on correct guidance and information regarding MRSA infection control policy, including measures and practices on hygiene precautions and information regarding antibiotic resistance for effective nursing care to patients with MRSA infections. The conclusions drawn from the study findings showed that it is necessary that the nursing officer thoroughly receive education on correct guidance and information regarding MRSA infection control policy, including measures and practices on hygiene precautions and information regarding antibiotic resistance to provide effective nursing care to patients with MRSA infection as they constantly care for the patient who can be at risk for multi-drug resistance organisms to reduce the risk of MRSA infection in hospital care settings as well community settings.

Keywords: MRSA, nursing officers, knowledge, preventive and management

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Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic

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When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan

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Authors: Najmin Sultana, Maneesha Pahlani

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A hospital is one of the most suitable places for acquiring an infection because it harbors a high population of virulent strains of microorganisms that may be resistant to antibiotics, especially the prevalence of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) infections. The hospital-acquired infection has become a global challenge. In developed countries, healthcare-associated infections occur in 5-15% of hospitalized clients, affecting 9-37% of those admitted to intensive care units (ICU). A non-experimental descriptive study was conducted among 50 nursing officers working in a selected hospital in bengaluru to assess the nursing officers’ level of knowledge regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections and to associate the pre-test knowledge mean scores of nursing officers with selected socio-demographic variables. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire consisting of socio-demographic data and a structured questionnaire on knowledge regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections. The data was analyzed in terms of frequencies and percentages for the analysis of demographic variables and computing chi-square to determine the association between knowledge means scores and selected demographic variables. The study findings revealed that the nursing officer had an overall good level of knowledge (63.05%) regarding the prevention and management of MRSA infections, and there is no significant association found between the level of knowledge mean scores for prevention and management of MRSA infection with the selected socio-demographic variables. However, the categorization of knowledge items showed that the nursing officer must thoroughly receive education on correct guidance and information regarding MRSA infection control policy, including measures and practices on hygiene precautions and information regarding antibiotic resistance for effective nursing care to patients with MRSA infections. The conclusions drawn from the study findings showed that it is necessary that the nursing officer thoroughly receive education on correct guidance and information regarding MRSA infection control policy, including measures and practices on hygiene precautions and information regarding antibiotic resistance to provide effective nursing care to patients with MRSA infection as they constantly care for the patient who can be at risk for multi-drug resistance organisms to reduce the risk of MRSA infection in hospital care settings as well community settings.

Keywords: MRSA, knowledge, nursing officers', prevention and management

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

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Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

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Authors: Hiroki Kikuchi, Atsushi Fukuda, Hirokazu Akahane, Satoru Kobayakawa, Tuenjai Fukuda, Takeru Miyokawa

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According to WHO reports, fatalities by road traffic accidents in many countries of South-East Asia region especially Thailand and Malaysia are increasing year by year. In order to overcome these serious problems, both governments are focusing on road safety measures. In response, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) of Japan and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) have begun active support based on the experiences to reduce the number of fatalities in road accidents in Japan in the past. However, even if the successful road safety measures in Japan is adopted in South-East Asian countries, it is not sure whether it will work well or not. So, it is necessary to clarify the issues and systematize the process for the implementation of road safety measures in South-East Asia. On the basis of the above, this study examined the applicability of "information sharing traffic safety measure" which is one of the successful road safety measures in Japan to the social implementation of road safety measures in South-East Asian countries. The "Information sharing traffic safety measure" is carried out traffic safety measures by stakeholders such as residents, administration, and experts jointly. In this study, we extracted the issues of implementation of road safety measures under local context firstly. This is clarifying the particular issues with its implementation in South-East Asian cities. Secondly, we considered how to implement road safety measures for solving particular issues based on the method of "information sharing traffic safety measure". In the implementation method, the location of the occurrence of a dangerous event was extracted based on the “HIYARI-HATTO” data which were obtained from the residents. This is because it is considered that the implementation of the information sharing traffic safety measure focusing on the location where the dangerous event occurs leads to the reduction of traffic accidents. Also, the target locations for the implementation of measures differ for each city. In Penang, we targeted the intersections　in the downtown, while in Suphan Buri, we targeted mainly traffic control on the intercity highway. Finally, we proposed a method for implementing traffic safety measures. For Penang, we proposed a measure to improve the signal phase and showed the effect of the measure on the micro traffic simulation. For Suphan Buri, we proposed the suitable measures for the danger points extracted by collecting the “HIYARI-HATTO” data of residents to the administration. In conclusion, in order to successfully implement the road safety measure based on the "information sharing traffic safety measure", the process for social implementation of the road safety measures should be consistent and carried out repeatedly. In particular, by clarifying specific issues based on local context in South-East Asian countries, the stakeholders, not only such as government sectors but also local citizens can share information regarding road safety and select appropriate countermeasures. Finally, we could propose this approach to the administration that had the authority.

Keywords: information sharing road safety measure, social implementation, South-East Asia, HIYARI-HATTO

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Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: Agburuga Obi, Madumere Akuego Jane

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This paper explores the important role sports can play in the promotion of good health and prevention of diseases. Technological advancements in today’s world has come along with some difficulties to man. This is because work formally done by man has been taken over by machines, thus, man has become sedentary. This has created a lot of health problems to man such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer, obesity, and osteoporosis. To nip this ugly situation in the bud, the following recommendations are made: specific measures should be taken to raise the awareness within the government, key sectors and the population of the diverse benefits or physical activity and sports and the risk and costs of inactivity, provision of equipment, facilities for sports and recreational activities in every community, participation in physical activities in sports if not on daily basis at least thrice a week.

Keywords: physical activities, sport, good health, prevention, diseases

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Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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Authors: Rabbya Ashrafi, Mohammad Tarikul Islam , Al-Amin Bhuiyan, Aminur Rahman

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Injury is the leading killer of children in Bangladesh. Anchal (community crèche) is an effective intervention to prevent injuries among children under 5. Through the SoLiD project, 1,600 Anchals are in place in three sub-districts in Bangladesh. The objectives of the Anchal are to provide supervision and early childhood development stimulations (ECD) to the children. A locally trained caregiver supervises 20-25 children, 9 to 59 months old, from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m., six days a week. Although it was found effective, during its implementation phase several challenges were noticed. To identify challenges and means to overcome those to improve the Anchal activities. In-depth interviews were conducted with Anchal caregivers, their supervisors, and trainers. Focus group discussions were conducted with the mothers of the Anchal children. The study was conducted in the Manohardi sub-district in November 2015. Decay of knowledge and skills after 2-3 months of training, lack of formal certification and inappropriate selection of women as Anchal caregivers, and enrollment of small children (less than 12 months) were the important challenges. The reluctance of parents to send children to the Anchal at the proper time, failure to engage children in various ECD activities, ineffective conduction of parents and community leaders meeting by the Anchal caregivers, insufficient accommodation, and poor supply of logistics for children were also the important challenges. The suggestion for improvement was to recruit caregivers as per standard criteria, provide them refreshers training at three months intervals, train them on effective conduction of parents and community leaders meetings, provide a formal certificate, and ensure regular supply of logistics. The identified challenges are needed to be addressed by utilizing the suggestions obtained from the IDIs and FGDs to make the Anchal intervention more effective in preventing childhood injuries.

Keywords: comunity crech, earlychildhood development, measures for improvement, childhood injury

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

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Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji

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Most accidents occur in urban areas, and the most related casualties are vulnerable road users (pedestrians and cyclists). The traffic calming measures (TCMs) are widely used and considered to be successful in reducing speed and traffic volume. However, TCMs create unwanted effects include: noise, emissions, energy consumption, vehicle delays and emergency response time (ERT). Different vertical and horizontal TCMs have been already applied nationally (Sweden) and internationally with different impacts. It is a big challenge among traffic engineers, planners, and policy-makers to choose and priorities the best TCMs to be implemented. This study will assess the existing guidelines for TCMs in relation to safety and ERT with focus on data from Norrkoping city in Sweden. The expected results will save lives, time, and money on particularly Swedish Roads. The study will also review newly technologies and how they can improve safety and reduce ERT.

Keywords: traffic calming measures, traffic safety, delay time, vulnerable road users

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Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

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The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: health risk index, heavy metals, clarias gariepinus, akure metropolis, fish monger

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Eun-Chan Kim, Jeong-Hwan Oh, Seung-Guk Lee

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Billions of tones of ballast water including various aquatic organisms are being carried around the world by ships. When the ballast water is discharged into new environments, some aquatic organisms discharged with ballast water may become invasive and severely disrupt the native ecology. Thus, International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the Ballast Water Management Convention in 2004. Regulation A-4 of the convention states that a government in waters under their jurisdiction may grant exemptions to any requirements to ballast water management, but only when they are granted to a ship or ships on a voyage or voyages between specified ports or locations, or to a ship which operates exclusively between specified ports or locations. In order to grant exemptions, risk assessment should be conducted based on the guidelines for risk assessment developed by the IMO. For the risk assessment, it is essential to collect the relevant information and establish a database system. This paper studies the database system for ballast water risk assessment. This database consists of the shipping database, ballast water database, port environment database and species database. The shipping database has been established based on the data collected from the port management information system of Korea Government. For the ballast water database, ballast water discharge has only been estimated by the loading/unloading of the cargoes as the convention has not come into effect yet. The port environment database and species database are being established based on the reference documents, and existing and newly collected monitoring data. This database system has been approved to be a useful system, capable of appropriately analyzing the risk assessment in the all ports of Korea.

Keywords: ballast water, IMO, risk assessment, shipping, environment, species

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Authors: Enjia Zhang

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During the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic, all communities in China were gated and under strict management, which was highly effective in preventing the spread of the epidemic from spreading. Based on the TRIZ theory, this paper intends to propose green design strategies of community control in response to public health emergencies and to optimize community control facilities according to the principle of minimum transformation. Through the questionnaire method, this paper investigates and summarizes the situation and problems of community control during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on these problems, the TRIZ theory is introduced to figure out the problems and associates them with prefabricated facilities. Afterward, the innovation points and solutions of prefabricated community control measures are proposed by using the contradiction matrix. This paper summarizes the current situation of community control under public health emergencies and concludes the problems such as simple forms of temporary roadblocks, sudden increase of community traffic pressure, and difficulties to access public spaces. The importance of entrance and exit control in community control is emphasized. Therefore, the community control measures are supposed to focus on traffic control, and the external access control measures, including motor vehicles, non-motor vehicles, residents and non-residents access control, and internal public space access control measures, including public space control shared with the society or adjacent communities, are proposed in order to make the community keep the open characteristics and have the flexibility to deal with sudden public health emergencies in the future.

Keywords: green design, community control, prefabricated structure, public health emergency

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

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Authors: Lowanika Victor Tibane, David Mamba

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Human body, animals, and plants depend on certain essential metals in permissible quantities for their survival. Excessive metal concentration may cause severe malfunctioning of the organisms and even fatal in extreme cases. Because of gold mining in the Witwatersrand basin in South Africa, enormous untreated mine dumps comprise elevated concentration of essential trace elements. Elevated quantities of trace metal have direct negative impact on the quality of soil for different land use types, reduce soil efficiency for plant growth, and affect the health human and animals. A total of 21 subsoil samples were examined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and X-ray fluorescence methods and the results elevated men concentration of Fe (36,433.39) > S (5,071.83) > Cu (1,717,28) > Mn (612.81) > Cr (74.52) > Zn (68.67) > Ni (40.44) > Co (9.63) > P (3.49) > Mo > (2.74), reported in mg/kg. Using various contamination indices, it was discovered that the sites surveyed are on average moderately contaminated with Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, S, and Zn. The ecological risk assessment revealed a low ecological risk for Cr, Ni and Zn, whereas Cu poses a very high ecological risk.

Keywords: essential trace elements, soil contamination, contamination indices, toxicity, descriptive statistics, ecological risk evaluation

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Authors: Andre C Jordaan

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The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.

Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure

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Authors: Haydar Teymourlouei

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It is important to take security measures to protect your computer information, reduce identify theft, and prevent from malicious cyber-attacks. With cyber-attacks on the continuous rise, people need to understand and learn ways to prevent from these attacks. Cyber-attack is an important factor to be considered if one is to be able to protect oneself from malicious attacks. Without proper security measures, most computer technology would hinder home users more than such technologies would help. Knowledge of how cyber-attacks operate and protective steps that can be taken to reduce chances of its occurrence are key to increasing these security measures. The purpose of this paper is to inform home users on the importance of identifying and taking preventive steps to avoid cyberattacks. Throughout this paper, many aspects of cyber-attacks will be discuss: what a cyber-attack is, the affects of cyber-attack for home users, different types of cyber-attacks, methodology to prevent such attacks; home users can take to fortify security of their computer.

Keywords: cyber-attacks, home user, prevention, security, technology

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: Rupesh K. Chaudhary, Narinder P. Jain, Rajesh Mahajan, Rajat Manchanda

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Introduction: Delirium is a complex, multifactorial neuropsychiatric syndrome comprising a broad range of cognitive and neurobehavioral symptoms. In critically ill patients, it may develop secondary to multiple predisposing factors. Although it can be transient and irreversible but if left untreated may lead to long term cognitive dysfunction. Early identification and assessment of risk factors usually help in appropriate management of delirium which in turn leads to decreased hospital stay, cost of therapy and mortality. Aim and Objective: Aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence of delirium using a validated scale in medical ICU patients and to determine the associated risk factors and outcomes. Material and Method: A prospective study in an 18-bed medical-intensive care unit (ICU) was undertaken. A total of 357 consecutive patients admitted to ICU for more than 24 hours were assessed. These patients were screened with the help of Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit -CAM-ICU, Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale, Screening Checklist for delirium and APACHE II. Appropiate statistical analysis was done to evaluate the risk factors influencing mortality in delirium. Results: Delirium occurred in 54.6% of 194 patients. Risk of delirium was independently associated with a history of hypertension, diabetes but not with severity of illness APACHE II score. Delirium was linked to longer ICU stay 13.08 ± 9.6 ver 7.07 ± 4.98 days, higher ICU mortality (35.8% % vs. 17.0%). Conclusion: Our study concluded that delirium poses a great risk factor in the outcome of the patient and carries high mortality, so a timely intervention helps in addressing these issues.

Keywords: delirium, risk factors, outcome, intervention

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Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added

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To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.

Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf

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Authors: Sharon Q. Yang, Robert J. Congleton

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Information security is a broad concept that covers any issues and concerns about the proper access and use of information on the Internet, including measures and procedures to protect intellectual property and private data from illegal access and online theft; the act of hacking; and any defensive technologies that contest such cybercrimes. As more research and commercial activities are conducted online, cybercrimes have increased significantly, putting sensitive information at risk. Information security has become critically important for organizations and private citizens alike. Hackers scan for network vulnerabilities on the Internet and steal data whenever they can. Cybercrimes disrupt our daily life, cause financial losses, and instigate fear in the public. Since the start of the pandemic, most data related cybercrimes targets have been either financial or health information from companies and organizations. Libraries also should have a high interest in understanding and adopting information security methods to protect their patron data and copyrighted materials. But according to information security professionals, higher education and cultural organizations, including their libraries, are the least prepared entities for cyberattacks. One recent example is that of Steven’s Institute of Technology in New Jersey in the US, which had its network hacked in 2020, with the hackers demanding a ransom. As a result, the network of the college was down for two months, causing serious financial loss. There are other cases where libraries, colleges, and universities have been targeted for data breaches. In order to build an effective defense, we need to understand the most common types of cybercrimes, including phishing, whaling, social engineering, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, malware and ransomware, and hacker profiles. Our research will focus on each hacking technique and related defense measures; and the social background and reasons/purpose of hacker and hacking. Our research shows that hacking techniques will continue to evolve as new applications, housing information, and data on the Internet continue to be developed. Some cybercrimes can be stopped with effective measures, while others present challenges. It is vital that people understand what they face and the consequences when not prepared.

Keywords: cybercrimes, hacking technologies, higher education, information security, libraries

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Authors: Gurli Olsen, Ida Bruheim Jensen

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Internationally, many young adults not in education, employment, or training (NEET) remain in temporary solutions such as labour market measures or other forms of welfare arrangements. These trends have been associated with ineffective labour market measures, an underfunded theoretical foundation for activation work, limited competence among social workers and labour market employees in using ordinary workplaces as job inclusion measures, and an overemphasis on young adults’ personal limitations such as health challenges and lack of motivation. Two competing models have been prominent in activation work: Place‐Then‐Train and Train‐Then‐Place. A traditional strategy for labour market measures has been to first motivate NEETs to sheltered work and training and then to the regular labour market (train then place). Measures such as Supported Employment (SE) and Individual Placement and Support (IPS) advocate for rapid entry into paid work at the regular labour market with close supervision and training from social workers, employees, and others (place then train). None of these models demonstrate unquestionable results. In this web of working life measures, young adults (NEETs) experience a lack of confidence in their own capabilities and coping strategies vis-á-vis labour market- and educational demands. Drawing on young adults’ own experiences, we argue that the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) Theory can contribute to the theoretical and practical dimensions of activation work. This presentation will focus on what the JD-R theory entails and how it can be fruitful in activation work with NEETs (what and how). The overarching rationale of the JD-R theory is that an enduring balance between demands (e.g., deadlines, working hours) and resources (e.g., social support, enjoyable work tasks) is important for job performance for people in any job and potentially in other meaningful activities. Extensive research has demonstrated that a balance between demands and resources increases motivation and decreases stress. Nevertheless, we have not identified literature on the JD-R theory in activation work with young adults.

Keywords: activation work, job demands-resources theory, social work, theory development

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Authors: Olor Obi, Ishiekwen Bridget, Ekpeyong Edom

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Even though gout is becoming more common, the role of dietary risk factors in the development and management of this condition remains unclear. Therefore, this review work will aim at clarifying the role of dietary factors in the risk and management of gout. An extensive search of literature published between 1960 and 2018 will be performed on the databases of PubMed, CINAHL, Science Direct, Cochrane, BMJ, Ann Rheum Dis, and BioMed to identify relevant cohort, prospective, population-based, or cross-sectional studies that examined the effect of diet on gout. About 19 studies will be included in this review work. The methodological quality of these studies will be evaluated using the quality assessment tool for observational and cross-sectional studies developed by the National Heart, Lungs, and Blood Institute. This work intends to reveal that a positive association exists between the intake of sugary, sweetened beverages and the risk of gout. It will also reveal the relationship between the increase in coffee consumption and the risk of gout.

Keywords: gout, dietary factors, management of gout, gouty arthritis

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Authors: A. Al-Wandi, A. Al-Ali, R. Dali, Y. Al-Karaghouli

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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become an alarming health problem across the globe. The risk of developing those diseases begins in childhood and develops gradually under the influence of risk factors including obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking and decreased physical activity. Therefore, this study aims to determine the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices of the risk factors of lifestyle induced chronic diseases (non-communicable diseases) among secondary school students in Sharjah city. Methods: Five hundred and ninety-one school children, from grades 10 to 12, formed the study sample, using the multistage stratified cluster sampling method. Four governmental schools were chosen, for each gender. Data was collected through a pretested, close-ended questionnaire consisting of five sections; demographics, physical activity, diet, smoking and sleeping patterns. Frequencies and descriptive statistics were used to analyze data through SPSS 23. Results: The data showed 64.6% of students had low knowledge of risk factors of non-communicable diseases. Concerning physical activity, 58.2 % were physically inactive and females being less active than males. More than 2/3 of students didn’t fulfill the recommended daily intake of fruits and vegetables (75.9%). 8% reported to be smokers with cigarettes being the most encountered tobacco product. Conclusion: Our study has demonstrated a low level of knowledge and practices yet, positive attitudes towards risk factors of chronic diseases. We recommend implementation of thorough awareness campaigns through public health education about the risk factors of non-communicable diseases.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, physical activity, diet, knowledge, attitudes, practices, smoking

Procedia PDF Downloads 229