Search results for: correlation and prediction

Authors: Ibrahim Ozkan

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In this study, a cross-layer design which combines adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) and hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) techniques for a cooperative wireless network is investigated analytically. Previous analyses of such systems in the literature are confined to the case where the fading channel is independent at each retransmission, which can be unrealistic unless the channel is varying very fast. On the other hand, temporal channel correlation can have a significant impact on the performance of HARQ systems. In this study, utilizing a Markov channel model which accounts for the temporal correlation, the performance of non-cooperative and cooperative networks are investigated in terms of packet loss rate and throughput metrics for Chase combining HARQ strategy.

Keywords: cooperative network, adaptive modulation and coding, hybrid ARQ, correlated fading

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Authors: Muhittin Karaman, Murat Budakoglu

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In this study, derivation of lake bathymetry was evaluated using the high resolution Worldview-2 multispectral images in the very shallow hypersaline Lake Acıgöl which does not have a stable water table due to the wet-dry season changes and industrial usage. Every year, a great part of the lake water budget has been consumed for the industrial salt production in the evaporation ponds, which are generally located on the south and north shores of Lake Acıgöl. Therefore, determination of the water level changes from a perspective of remote sensing-based lake water by bathymetry studies has a great importance in the sustainability-control of the lake. While the water table interval is around 1 meter between dry and wet season, dissolved ion concentration, salinity and turbidity also show clear differences during these two distinct seasonal periods. At the same time, with the satellite data acquisition (June 9, 2013), a field study was conducted to collect the salinity values, Secchi disk depths and turbidity levels. Max depth, Secchi disk depth and salinity were determined as 1,7 m, 0,9 m and 43,11 ppt, respectively. Eight-band Worldview-2 image was corrected for atmospheric effects by ATCOR technique. For each sampling point in the image, mean reflectance values in 1*1, 3*3, 5*5, 7*7, 9*9, 11*11, 13*13, 15*15, 17*17, 19*19, 21*21, 51*51 pixel reflectance neighborhoods were calculated separately. A unique image has been derivated for each matrix resolution. Spectral values and depth relation were evaluated for these distinct resolution images. Correlation coefficients were determined for the 1x1 matrix: 0,98, 0,96, 0,95 and 0,90 for the 724 nm, 831 nm, 908 nm and 659 nm, respectively. While 15x5 matrix characteristics with 0,98, 0,97 and 0,97 correlation values for the 724 nm, 908 nm and 831 nm, respectively; 51x51 matrix shows 0,98, 0,97 and 0,96 correlation values for the 724 nm, 831 nm and 659 nm, respectively. Comparison of all matrix resolutions indicates that RedEdge band (724 nm) of the Worldview-2 satellite image has the best correlation with the saline shallow lake of Acıgöl in-situ depth.

Keywords: bathymetry, Worldview-2 satellite image, ATCOR technique, Lake Acıgöl, Denizli, Turkey

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Said Munir, Karl Ropkins, Essam A. Morsy, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Abdulaziz R. Seroji

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In this paper air quality conditions in Makkah and Leeds are compared. These two cities have totally different climatic conditions. Makkah climate is characterised as hot and dry (arid) whereas that of Leeds is characterised as cold and wet (temperate). This study uses air quality data from year 2012 collected in Makkah, Saudi Arabia and Leeds, UK. The concentrations of all pollutants, except NO are higher in Makkah. Most notable, the concentrations of PM10 are much higher in Makkah than in Leeds. This is probably due to the arid nature of climatic conditions in Makkah and not solely due to anthropogenic emission sources, otherwise like PM10 some of the other pollutants, such as CO, NO, and SO2 would have shown much greater difference between Leeds and Makkah. Correlation analysis is performed between different pollutants at the same site and the same pollutants at different sites. In Leeds the correlation between PM10 and other pollutants is significantly stronger than in Makkah. Weaker correlation in Makkah is probably due to the fact that in Makkah most of the gaseous pollutants are emitted by combustion processes, whereas most of the PM10 is generated by other sources, such as windblown dust, re-suspension, and construction activities. This is in contrast to Leeds where all pollutants including PM10 are predominantly emitted by combustions, such as road traffic. Furthermore, in Leeds frequent rains wash out most of the atmospheric particulate matter and supress re-suspension of dust. Temporal trends of various pollutants are compared and discussed. This study emphasises the role of climatic conditions in managing air quality, and hence the need for region-specific controlling strategies according to the local climatic and meteorological conditions.

Keywords: air pollution, climatic conditions, particulate matter, Makkah, Leeds

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Brunner M., Ruan S., Antonioli D.

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Deep learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) is a very powerful technique for classifying information from an image. We propose a new method, DeepNic, to transform each variable of a tabular dataset into an image where each pixel represents a set of conditions that allow the variable to make an error-free prediction. The contrast of each pixel is proportional to its prediction performance and the color of each pixel corresponds to a sub-family of NICs. NICs are probabilities that depend on the number of inputs to each neuron and the range of coefficients of the inputs. Each variable can therefore be expressed as a function of a matrix of 2 vectors corresponding to an image whose pixels express predictive capabilities. Our objective is to transform each variable of tabular data into images into an image that can be analysed by CNNs, unlike other methods which use all the variables to construct an image. We analyse the NIC information of each variable and express it as a function of the number of neurons and the range of coefficients used. The predictive value and the category of the NIC are expressed by the contrast and the color of the pixel. We have developed a pipeline to implement this technology and have successfully applied it to genomic expressions on an Affymetrix chip.

Keywords: tabular data, deep learning, perfect trees, NICS

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Authors: Selvaprakash Ramalingam, Rabi N. Sahoo, Dharmendra Saraswat, A. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan, Joydeep Mukerjee, Viswanathan Chinnasamy, K. K. Chaturvedi, Sanjeev Kumar

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Rice is one of the most important staple food crops in the world. Among the various diseases that affect rice crops, rice blast is particularly significant, causing crop yield and economic losses. While the plant has defense mechanisms in place, such as chemical indicators (proteins, salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, ethylene, and azelaic acid) and resistance genes in certain varieties that can protect against diseases, susceptible varieties remain vulnerable to these fungal diseases. Early prediction of rice blast (RB) disease is crucial, but conventional techniques for early prediction are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Hyperspectral remote sensing techniques hold the potential to predict RB disease at its asymptomatic stage. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate the prediction of RB disease at the asymptomatic stage using non-imaging hyperspectral ASD spectroradiometer under controlled laboratory conditions. We applied statistical spectral discrimination theory to identify unknown spectra of M. Oryzae, the fungus responsible for rice blast disease. The infrared (IR) region was found to be significantly affected by RB disease. These changes may result in alterations in the absorption, reflection, or emission of infrared radiation by the affected plant tissues. Our research revealed that the protein spectrum in the IR region is impacted by RB disease. In our study, we identified strong correlations in the region (Amide group - I) around X 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm with the Lambda / Lambda derived spectra methods for protein detection. During the stages when the disease is developing, typically from day 3 to day 5, the plant's defense mechanisms are not as effective. This is especially true for the PB-1 variety of rice, which is highly susceptible to rice blast disease. Consequently, the proteins in the plant are adversely affected during this critical time. The spectral contour plot reveals the highly correlated spectral regions 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm associated with RB disease infection. Based on these spectral sensitivities, we developed new spectral disease indices for predicting different stages of disease emergence. The goal of this research is to lay the foundation for future UAV and satellite-based studies aimed at long-term monitoring of RB disease.

Keywords: rice blast, asymptomatic stage, spectral sensitivity, IR

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Authors: Aaditya U. Jhamb

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Due to the current energy crisis that many countries are battling, energy-efficient buildings are the subject of extensive research in the modern technological era because of growing worries about energy consumption and its effects on the environment. The paper explores 8 factors that help determine energy efficiency for a building: (relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area, and glazing area distribution), with Tsanas and Xifara providing a dataset. The data set employed 768 different residential building models to anticipate heating and cooling loads with a low mean squared error. By optimizing these characteristics, machine learning algorithms may assess and properly forecast a building's heating and cooling loads, lowering energy usage while increasing the quality of people's lives. As a result, the paper studied the magnitude of the correlation between these input factors and the two output variables using various statistical methods of analysis after determining which input variable was most closely associated with the output loads. The most conclusive model was the Decision Tree Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 0.258, whilst the least definitive model was the Isotonic Regressor, which had a mean squared error of 21.68. This paper also investigated the KNN Regressor and the Linear Regression, which had to mean squared errors of 3.349 and 18.141, respectively. In conclusion, the model, given the 8 input variables, was able to predict the heating and cooling loads of a residential building accurately and precisely.

Keywords: energy efficient buildings, heating load, cooling load, machine learning models

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Authors: Palaniraj Rama Raj, Himeesh Kumar, Paul Adler

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Purpose: To investigate the effect of ultrasound energy, expressed as cumulative dissipated energy (CDE), on short and long-term outcomes after uncomplicated cataract surgery by phacoemulsification. Methods: In this single-surgeon, two-center retrospective study, non-glaucomatous participants who underwent uncomplicated cataract surgery were investigated. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and intraocular pressure (IOP) were measured at 3 separate time points: pre-operative, Day 1 and ≥1 month. Anterior chamber (AC) inflammation and corneal odema (CO) were assessed at 2 separate time points: Pre-operative and Day 1. Short-term changes (Day 1) in BCVA, IOP, AC and CO and long-term changes (≥1 month) in BCVA and IOP were evaluated as a function of CDE using a multivariate multiple linear regression model, adjusting for age, gender, cataract type and grade, preoperative IOP, preoperative BCVA and duration of long-term follow-up. Results: 110 eyes from 97 non-glaucomatous participants were analysed. 60 (54.55%) were female and 50 (45.45%) were male. The mean (±SD) age was 73.40 (±10.96) years. Higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of sclerotic nuclear cataracts (p <0.001) and posterior subcapsular cataracts (p <0.036). There was no significant association between CDE counts and cortical cataracts. CDE counts also had a positive correlation with Day 1 CO (p <0.001). There was no correlation between CDE counts and Day 1 AC inflammation. Short-term and long-term changes in post-operative IOP did not demonstrate significant associations with CDE counts (all p >0.05). Though there was no significant correlation between CDE counts and short-term changes in BCVA, higher CDE counts were strongly associated with greater improvements in long-term BCVA (p = 0.011). Conclusion: Though higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of Day 1 postoperative CO, there appeared to be no detriment to long-term BCVA. Correspondingly, the strong positive correlation between CDE counts and long-term BCVA was likely reflective of the greater severity of underlying cataract type and grade. CDE counts were not associated with short-term or long-term postoperative changes in IOP.

Keywords: cataract surgery, phacoemulsification, cumulative dissipated energy, CDE, surgical outcomes

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Authors: Diella Gracia Martauli

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This study investigated the relationship between music aptitude and school readiness in Indonesian children. Music aptitude is described as children’s music potential, whereas school readiness is defined as a condition in which a child is deemed ready to enter the formal education system. This study presents a hypothesis that music aptitude is correlated with school readiness. This is a correlational research study of 17 children aged 5-6 years old (M = 6.10, SD = 0.33) who were enrolled in a kindergarten school in Jakarta, Indonesia. Music aptitude scores were obtained from Primary Measures of Music Audiation, whereas School readiness scores were obtained from Bracken School Readiness Assessment Third Edition. The analysis of the data was performed using Pearson Correlation. The result found no correlation between music aptitude and school readiness (r = 0.196, p = 0.452). Discussions regarding the results, perspective from the measures and cultures are presented. Further study is recommended to establish links between music aptitude and school readiness.

Keywords: BSRA, music aptitude, PMMA, school readiness

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Authors: Jia Xue, Frederica G. Lamar, Siyu Lin, Jennifer G. Lamori, Samendra Sherchan

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Brackish water samples from Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana were assessed for the presence of pathogenic amoeba Naegleria fowleri, which causes primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). In our study, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) methods were used to determine N. fowleri, E. coli, and Enterococcus in water collected from Lake Pontchartrain. A total of 158 water samples were analyzed over the 10-month sampling period. Statistically significant positive correlation between water temperature and N. fowleri concentration was observed. N. fowleri target sequence was detected at 35.4% (56/158) of the water samples from ten sites around the Lake ranged from 11.6 GC/100 ml water to 457.8 GC/100 ml water. A single factor (ANOVA) analysis shows the average concentration of N. fowleri in summer (119.8 GC/100 ml) was significantly higher than in winter (58.6 GC/100 ml) (p < 0.01). Statistically significant positive correlations were found between N. fowleri and qPCR E. coli results and N. fowleri and colilert E. coli (culture method), respectively. A weak positive correlation between E. coli and Enterococcus was observed from both qPCR (r = 0.27, p < 0.05) and culture based method (r = 0.52, p < 0.05). Meanwhile, significant positive correlation between qPCR and culture based methods for E. coli (r = 0.30, p < 0.05) and Enterococcus concentration was observed (r = 0.26, p < 0.05), respectively. Future research is needed to determine whether sediment is a source of N. fowleri found in the water column.

Keywords: brackish water, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus, Naegleria fowleri, primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM), qPCR

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Authors: M. Mydlárová Blaščáková, J. Bernasovská, J. Poráčová, I. Boroňová

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Obesity is frequent attendant phenomenon of patients with endocrinological disease. Between BMI and endocrinological diseases is close correlation. In thesis we focused on the allocation of hormone concentration – PTH and TSH, CHOL a mineral element Ca in a blood serum. The examined group was formed by 100 respondents (women) aged 36 – 83 years, who were divided into two groups – control group (CG), group with diagnosed endocrine disease (DED). The concentration of PTH and TSH, Ca and CHOL was measured through the medium of analyzers Cobas e411 (Japan); Cobas Integra 400 (Switzerland). At individuals was measured body weight as well as stature and thereupon from those data we enumerated BMI. On the basis of Student T-test in biochemical parameter of PTH and Ca we found out significantly meaningful difference (p<0,05) between CG and DED. In CG we made a founding the association between BMI and PTH by means of correlation analysis.

Keywords: biochemical markers, hormones, obesity, women

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

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Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

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Authors: X. Wang, J. S. Kuang

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The Fixed-angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-stiffening (FASTMT) has a superior performance in predicting the shear behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) membrane elements, especially for the post-cracking behaviour. Nevertheless, massive computational work is inevitable due to the multiple transcendental equations involved in the stress-strain relationship. In this paper, an iterative root-finding technique is introduced to FASTMT for solving quickly the transcendental equations of the tension-stiffening effect of RC membrane elements. This fast FASTMT, which performs in MATLAB, uses the bisection method to calculate the tensile stress of the membranes. By adopting the simplification, the elapsed time of each loop is reduced significantly and the transcendental equations can be solved accurately. Owing to the high efficiency and good accuracy as compared with FASTMT, the fast FASTMT can be further applied in quick prediction of shear behaviour of complex large-scale RC structures.

Keywords: bisection method, FASTMT, iterative root-finding technique, reinforced concrete membrane

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Authors: Roman Khanferyan

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Endurance exercises and strenuous muscle activity are accompanied by multiple immune dysfunctions due to the activation of cytokines and chemokines synthesis. This study assesses changes in the synthesis of immune regulatory mediators in elite athletes during endurance sports activity. The concentrations of cytokines/chemokines (IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-18, MIP-1 beta, GRO-alpha, RANTES, SDF-1a, VEGF) in sera of hockey athletes (n=33) and in supernatants of 24-h cultivated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of boxers (n=6) assayed by ELISA and Luminex xMAP multiplex assays. Estimation of body composition studied by using bioimpedance technology. The dietary energy consumption per person has been estimated using an album of different sizes of portions of the most frequently consumed foods. It has been demonstrated that endurance sports activity enhances the secretions of most pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in more than 2-6 fold. The study demonstrated that the high increase of more than 3-4 times in the concentration of IL-18 in sera of athletes (327.86 + 45.67 pg/ml) didn’t correlate with BMI (p=0.040) but demonstrated a low correlation with MMI (p=0.234) and BMR (p=0,231). The opposite impact on the concentration of IL-10 has been demonstrated in athletes. It has been shown a negative correlation between its concentration and BMI (p= - 0.251), MMI (p= - 0.327), and BMR (p= - 0.301). In vitro studies in boxers showed greater amounts of chemokines in the PBMC supernatants, including MIP-1β, GRO-α, RANTES, SDF-1α, and IL-8 (P<0.05). At the same time, healthy controls had greater supernatant levels of MCP-1, Eotaxin, and MIP-1α. The study demonstrated a high correlation between physical activity, usual athletes' diet, and consumption of specialized sports nutrition products.

Keywords: sport nutrition, cytokines, chemokines, endurace exercises

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Authors: Marina B. Cottrell

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Tempo plays a significant role in the perception of metrical groupings, with faster tempi tending to increase the number of beats in a given metrical unit. Previous research has shown a correlation between the perception of metric grouping and native language, but little is currently known about other possible musical factors that contribute to metric grouping tendencies. This study aims to find the tempo boundaries at which the perceptual groupings of a melodic pattern changes and to correlate these regions with self-reported musical experience. Participants were presented with looping melodies (divided between major and minor keys). Using a slider bar that controlled the tempo, subjects were asked to locate the point at which they heard the metric grouping doubled or halved. This region was shown to primarily be affected by the mode and time signature of the stimulus. The results also suggest a correlation between the level of musical training and the region of perceived grouping change.

Keywords: meter, metric grouping, mode, tempo

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Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic

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Authors: P. K. Purohit, Azad A. Mansoori, Parvaiz A. Khan, Purushottam Bhawre, Sharad C. Tripathi, A. M. Aslam, Malik A. Waheed, Shivangi Bhardwaj, A. K. Gwal

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The geomagnetic storm represents the most outstanding example of solar wind-magnetospheric interaction, which causes global disturbances in the geomagnetic field as well as the trigger ionospheric disturbances. We study the behaviour of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) during the geomagnetic storms. For the present investigation we have selected 47 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100nT) that were observed during the solar cycle 23 i.e. during 1998-2006. We then categorized these storms into four categories depending upon their solar sources like Magnetic Cloud (MC), Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR), SH+ICME and SH+MC. We then studied the behaviour of ionospheric TEC at a mid latitude station Usuda (36.13N, 138.36E), Japan during these storm events produced by four different solar sources. During our study we found that the smooth variations in TEC are replaced by rapid fluctuations and the value of TEC is strongly enhanced during the time of these storms belonging to all the four categories. However, the greatest enhancements in TEC are produced during those geomagnetic storms which are either caused by sheath driven magnetic cloud (SH+MC) or sheath driven ICME (SH+ICME). We also derived the correlation between the TEC enhancements produced during storms of each category with the minimum Dst. We found the strongest correlation exists for the SH+ICME category followed by SH+MC, MC and finally CIR. Since the most intense storms were either caused by SH+ICME or SH+MC while the least intense storms were caused by CIR, consequently the correlation was the strongest with SH+ICME and SH+MC and least with CIR.

Keywords: GPS, TEC, geomagnetic storm, sheath driven magnetic cloud

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Authors: S. C. Lin, W. F. Hung, W. W. Cheng

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Teacher empowerment was regarded as investing teachers with the right to participate in the determination of school goals and policies and to exercise professional judgment about what and how to teach. Professional commitment was considered as a person’s belief in and acceptance of the values of his or her chosen occupation or line of work, and a willingness to maintain membership in that occupation. An effective school has been defined as one in which students’ progress further than might be expected from consideration of its intake. An effective school thus adds extra value to its students' outcomes, in comparison with other schools serving similar intakes. A number of literature from various countries explored that teacher empowerment and professional commitment significantly influenced school effectiveness. However, there lacked more empirical studies to examine the relationships among them. Hence, this study was to explore the relationships among teacher empowerment, professional commitment and school effectiveness in junior high schools in Taiwan. Samples were seven hundred and five junior high school teachers selected from Taichung City, Changhua County and Nantou County. Questionnaire was applied to collect data. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s product-moment correlation, and multiple regression analysis. The findings of this study were as follows: First, the overall performances of teachers’ perceptions of teacher empowerment, teacher professional commitment and school effectiveness were above average. Second, the teachers’ perceptions of teacher empowerment were significant different in gender, designated duty, and school size. Third, the teachers’ perceptions of teacher professional commitment were significant different in gender, designated duty, and school size. Fourth, the teachers’ perceptions of school effectiveness were significant different in designated duty. Fifth, teacher empowerment was mid-positively correlation by teacher professional commitment. Sixth, there was mid-positively correlation between teacher empowerment and school effectiveness. Seventh, there was mid-positively correlation between teacher professional commitment and school effectiveness. Eighth, Teacher empowerment and professional commitment could significantly predict school effectiveness. Based on the findings of this study, the study proposed some suggestions for educational authorities, schools, teachers, and future studies as well.

Keywords: junior high school teacher, teacher empowerment, teacher professional commitment, school effectiveness

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi

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In the present study, the capabilities of WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW for predicting the characteristics of wind waves in Hormuz Strait are evaluated. The GFS wind data (Global Forecast System) were derived. The bathymetry of gride with 2 arc-minute resolution, also were extracted from the ETOPO1. WAVEWATCH-III findings illustrate more valid prediction of wave features comparing to the MIKE-21 SW in deep water. Apparently, in shallow area, the MIKE-21 provides more uniformities with altimetry measurements. This may be due to the merits of the unstructured grid which are used in MIKE-21, leading to better representations of the coastal area. The findings on the direction of waves generated by wind in the modeling area indicate that in some regions, despite the increase in wind speed, significant wave height stays nearly unchanged. This is fundamental because of swift changes in wind track over the Strait of Hormuz. After discussing wind-induced waves in the region, the impact of instability of the surface layer on wave growth has been considered. For this purpose, the average monthly mean air temperature has been used. The results in cold months, when the surface layer is unstable, indicates an acceptable increase in the accuracy of prediction of the indicator wave height.

Keywords: numerical modeling, WAVEWATCH-III, Strait of Hormuz, MIKE21-SW

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Authors: Abdul Aleem

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The study aimed to establish age-related normative values for motor skill assessments in Pakistani children aged 15 to 20 years, utilize two motor coordination tests: the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD) and the Korper Coordinations test for kinder. In the present study, BMI, age and gender were correlated with the motor performance of the children. The study developed the preliminary normative data for the Test for Gross Motor Development TGMD-2 and KTK test for primary school children. There was a positive correlation between age and TGMD-2 and KTK test scores. All participants performed 100% on the locomotor subset of TGMD-2 test and boys showed better motor proficiency than girls on scores of TGMD-2 test. Moreover, there was a negative correlation between the KTK test score and the BMI of participants.

Keywords: motor competence, Korper coordinations, normative values, developmental coordination disorder

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Authors: Fatimah Alhomaid

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The present study was planned to investigate the role of molecular changes and immunohistochemical in early detection of colon cancer in Saudi patients. Our results were carried out on 48 patients colon cancer. We obtained our data from laboratory in King Khalid university hospital. The specimens were taken (48) patients with colon cancer 34 male and 14 female and 2 control. The average age of varied from 37-85 years. The tumor was diagnosed as I in tow patients (male and female) and grade 2 in 42 patients (29 male and 13 female) while the grade 3 in 4 patients (all males). The specimens were processed for haematoxylin and eosin staining , immunohistochemical technique and flow cytometry analysis. Our study noted that most patients had adenocarcinoma which characterized by presence of signet-ring cells were very clear in advanced patients of adenocarcinoma. Our sections in adenocarcinoma in grade 2 and stage 3 had an increase in signet ring cells,an increase in the acini of glands and an increase in number of lymphocytes which spread to the muscularis layer. With advancing the disease, there were haemorge in blood and increase in lymphocytes and increase number of nuclei in the tubular glands. Our study was carried on 48 patients, immunohistochemical diagnosis (CK20,PCNA,P53) and the analysis of DNA content by flow cytometry technique. Our study indicated that the presence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for P53 and the grades. The reaction of P53 appeared as strong in nucleus in grades &stage 3 and appeared in other sections as dark brown pigment. Our study indicated that the absence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for pcan and the grades. In our sections, there were strong reactions in the more 80% of nuclei in grade 1& stage 2. Our study indicated that the presence of correlation between the immunohistochemical analysis for CK20 and the grades. Our results indicated the presence of positive reaction in cytoplasm varied from weak to moderate in grade 3 & stage 4. Concerning the Flow cytometry technique our results indicated that the presence of correlation between the DNA and different stages of colon cancer.

Keywords: DNA-CK20, PCNA, P53, colon cancer

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Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh

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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest

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Authors: Mazhar B. Tayel, Eslam I. AlSaba

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The heart is the most important part in any body organisms. It effects and affected by any factor in the body. Therefore, it is a good detector of any matter in the body. When the heart signal is non-stationary signal, therefore, it should be study its variability. So, the Heart Rate Variability (HRV) has attracted considerable attention in psychology, medicine and have become important dependent measure in psychophysiology and behavioral medicine. Quantification and interpretation of heart rate variability. However, remain complex issues are fraught with pitfalls. This paper presents one of the non-linear techniques to analyze HRV. It discusses 'What Poincare plot is?', 'How it is work?', 'its usage benefits especially in HRV', 'the limitation of Poincare cause of standard deviation SD1, SD2', and 'How overcome this limitation by using complex correlation measure (CCM)'. The CCM is most sensitive to changes in temporal structure of the Poincaré plot as compared to SD1 and SD2.

Keywords: heart rate variability, chaotic system, poincare, variance, standard deviation, complex correlation measure

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Authors: Manwendra Kumar Tripathi, Subhas Ganguly

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A few glass forming ability expressions in terms of characteristic temperatures have been proposed in the literature. Attempts have been made to correlate the expression with the critical diameter of the bulk metallic glass composition. However, with the advent of new alloys, many exceptions have been noted and reported. In the present approach, a genetic programming based code which generates an expression in terms of input variables, i.e., three characteristic temperatures viz. glass transition temperature (Tg), onset crystallization temperature (Tx) and offset temperature of melting (Tl) with maximum correlation with a critical diameter (Dmax). The expression evolved shows improved correlation with the critical diameter. In addition, the expression can be explained on the basis of time-temperature transformation curve.

Keywords: glass forming ability, genetic programming, bulk metallic glass, critical diameter

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Authors: Amna Imtiaz

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Aims: To correlate serum ferritin with left ventricular function in beta thalassemia major patients with increased transfusion dependence and to find out whether echocardiography can be used to assess pre clinical cardiac disease in these patients. Methods: The cross sectional study was conducted at Department of Pathology, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, Islamabad. 60 patients of beta thalassemia major with increased transfusion dependence were enrolled in this study. Serum ferritin levels of all patients were measured by using indirect enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Echocardiography was performed on all patients by a consultant cardiologist by linking conventional echocardiography with tissue Doppler imaging. Ejection fraction and E/A ratio were measured in all patients to assess left ventricular systolic and diastolic function. Results: On the basis of serum ferritin level, patients were divided into three groups. Group I consisted of patients having serum ferritin level equal to or less than 2500 ng/ml. A total of 25 patients were placed in this group. Group II included patients having serum ferritin level between 2500 to 5000 ng/ml. A total of 22 patients were placed in this group. Group III included patients having serum ferritin level more than 5000 ng/ml. This group consisted of 13 patients. All patients having serum ferritin below 2500ng/ml had normal systolic function, and only 16% of the patients in this group had diastolic dysfunction as reflected by abnormal E/A ratio. In group II, 27% of the patients had systolic dysfunction reflected by subnormal ejection fraction while 40% of the patients had diastolic dysfunction. In group III, 62% of the patients had abnormal systolic and diastolic function. Pearson correlation was used to find a correlation between serum ferritin and left ventricular function. A strong negative correlation was found which is reflected by a p value of less than 0.05 which is significant. Chi square test is used to correlate serum ferritin with E/A ratio. P value came out to be less than 0.05 which is significant.

Keywords: beta thalassemia major, left ventricular function, serum ferritin, transfusion dependence

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Authors: Azza Gaber Antar Farag, Eman Abd El Fatah Badr, Wesam Ahmed Tawfik Hasssan Abdel Aal, Mustafa Elsayed Elshaib

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Background: Female Sexual Dysfunction (FSD) represents recurrent and persistent problems that distress women and/or strain their relationships with their partners. Dopamine can affect sexual function and interacts with ovarian hormones in the ventromedial area in the hypothalamus. Objective: To investigate the possible role of dopamine in FSD. Method: This prospective case-control study was carried on 100 women having FSD and 100 healthy volunteer females. They were recruited from the Al-Menoufia governorate. All included women were subjected to the questionnaire to assess their demographic and gynecological data as well as sexual function. They were investigated for serum levels of dopamine, estradiol, progesterone and DHEA hormones. Results: Dopamine serum levels were significantly lower in females having sexual dysfunction (6.68±4.14) than controls (57.97±26.26) (P>0.001). This decreased dopamine level was of a significant positive correlation with the arousal domain and significant negative correlation regarding the pain domain (r=-0.19, p=0.01). Also, estradiol serum levels were significantly lower (P>0.001), but progesterone and DHEA serum levels were significantly higher in the FSD group than controls (P>0.001). There was a significant negative correlation between dopamine and DHEA serum levels (r= -0.45, p <0.001). Conclusions: Decreased dopamine serum levels may have an active role in the pathophysiology of FSD, impacting mainly arousal and pain domains, and its targeting should be considered during FSD management.

Keywords: dopamine, estradiol, progesterone, DHEA, females sexual dysfunction

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Authors: M. S. Aparna, Pushparaj Shetty D.

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Nowadays social networking sites have become so popular that the producers or the sellers look for these sites as one of the best options to target the right audience to market their products. There are several tools available to monitor or analyze the social networks. Our task is to identify the right community web pages and find out the behavior analysis of the members by using these tools and formulate an appropriate strategy to market the products or services to achieve the set goals. The advertising becomes more effective when the information of the product/ services come from a known source. The strategy explores great buying influence in the audience on referral marketing. Our methodology proceeds with critical budget analysis and promotes viral influence propagation. In this context, we encompass the vital bits of budget evaluation such as the number of optimal seed nodes or primary influential users activated onset, an estimate coverage spread of nodes and maximum influence propagating distance from an initial seed to an end node. Our proposal for Buyer Prediction mathematical model arises from the urge to perform complex analysis when the probability density estimates of reliable factors are not known or difficult to calculate. Order Statistics and Buyer Prediction mapping function guarantee the selection of optimal influential users at each level. We exercise an efficient tactics of practicing community pages and user behavior to determine the product enthusiasts on social networks. Our approach is promising and should be an elementary choice when there is little or no prior knowledge on the distribution of potential buyers on social networks. In this strategy, product news propagates to influential users on or surrounding networks. By applying the same technique, a user can search friends who are capable to advise better or give referrals, if a product interests him.

Keywords: viral marketing, social network analysis, community web pages, buyer prediction, influence propagation, budget constraints

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Authors: Peter David Reiss

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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

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Authors: Juan Sebastián Hernández

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The Nevado del Ruíz volcano, located between the limits of the Departments of Caldas and Tolima in Colombia, presented an unstable behaviour in the course of the year 2020, this volcanic activity led to secondary effects on the crust, which is why the prediction of deformations becomes the task of geoscientists. In the course of this article, the use of tropospheric variables such as evapotranspiration, UV aerosol index, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, methane, surface temperature, among others, is used to train a set of neural networks that can predict the behaviour of the resulting phase of an unrolled interferogram with the DInSAR technique, whose main objective is to identify and characterise the behaviour of the crust based on the environmental conditions. For this purpose, variables were collected, a generalised linear model was created, and a set of neural networks was created. After the training of the network, validation was carried out with the test data, giving an MSE of 0.17598 and an associated r-squared of approximately 0.88454. The resulting model provided a dataset with good thematic accuracy, reflecting the behaviour of the volcano in 2020, given a set of environmental characteristics.

Keywords: crustal deformation, Tropomi, neural networks (ANN), volcanic activity, DInSAR

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng

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The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.

Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: prediction model, sensitivity analysis, simulation method, USMLE

Procedia PDF Downloads 339