Search results for: climate change adaptation

Authors: Sakinah Idris, Gabrine Jagersma, Bjorn Jaime Van Pelt, Kirstin Greaves-Lord

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Background: The PEERS (Program for the Education and Enrichment of Relational Skills) intervention can be considered a well-established, evidence-based intervention in the USA. However, testing the efficacy of cultural adaptations of PEERS is still ongoing. More and more, the involvement of all stakeholders in the development and evaluation of interventions is acknowledged as crucial for the longer term implementation of interventions across settings. Therefore, in the current project, teens with ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder), their neurotypical peers, parents, teachers, as well as clinicians were involved in the development and evaluation of the Dutch version of PEERS. Objectives: The current presentation covers (1) the formative phase and (2) the preliminary adaptation test phase of the cultural adaptation of evidence-based interventions. In the formative phase, we aim to describe the process of adaptation of the PEERS program to the Dutch culture and care system. In the preliminary adaptation phase, we will present results from the preliminary adaptation test among 32 adolescents with ASD. Methods: In phase 1, a group discussion on common vocabulary was conducted among 70 teenagers (and their teachers) from special and regular education aged 12-18 years old. This inventory concerned 14 key constructs from PEERS, e.g., areas of interests, locations for making friends, common peer groups and crowds inside and outside of school, activities with friends, commonly used ways for electronic communication, ways for handling disagreements, and common teasing comebacks. Also, 15 clinicians were involved in the translation and cultural adaptation process. The translation and cultural adaptation process were guided by the research team, and who included input and feedback from all stakeholders through an iterative feedback incorporation procedure. In phase 2, The parent-reported Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), the Test of Adolescent Social Skills Knowledge (TASSK), and the Quality of Socialization Questionnaire (QSQ) were assessed pre- and post-intervention to evaluate potential treatment outcome. Results: The most striking cultural adaptation - reflecting the standpoints of all stakeholders - concerned the strategies for handling rumors and gossip, which were suggested to be taught using a similar approach as the teasing comebacks, more in line with ‘down-to-earth’ Dutch standards. The preliminary testing of this adapted version indicated that the adolescents with ASD significantly improved their social knowledge (TASSK; t₃₁ = -10.9, p < .01), social experience (QSQ-Parent; t₃₁ = -4.2, p < .01 and QSQ-Adolescent; t₃₂ = -3.8, p < .01), and in parent-reported social responsiveness (SRS; t₃₃ = 3.9, p < .01). In addition, subjective evaluations of teens with ASD, their parents and clinicians were positive. Conclusions: In order to further scrutinize the effectiveness of the Dutch version of the PEERS intervention, we recommended performing a larger scale randomized control trial (RCT) design, for which we provide several methodological considerations.

Keywords: cultural adaptation, PEERS, preliminary testing, translation

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Authors: Nothando Gwazani, K. R. Marembo

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An increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuel and land use change necessitates identification of strategies for mitigating threats associated with global warming. Oceans are insufficient to offset the accelerating rate of carbon emission. However, the challenges of oceans as a source of reducing carbon footprint can be effectively overcome by the storage of carbon in terrestrial carbon sinks. The gases with special optical properties that are responsible for climate warming include carbon dioxide (CO₂), water vapors, methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), stratospheric ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s). Amongst these, CO₂ plays a crucial role as it contributes to 50% of the total greenhouse effect and has been linked to climate change. Because plants act as carbon sinks, interest in terrestrial carbon sequestration has increased in an effort to explore opportunities for climate change mitigation. Removal of carbon from the atmosphere is a topical issue that addresses one important aspect of an overall strategy for carbon management namely to help mitigate the increasing emissions of CO₂. Thus, terrestrial ecosystems have gained importance for their potential to sequester carbon and reduce carbon sink in oceans, which have a substantial impact on the ocean species. Field data and electromagnetic spectrum bands were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.2, QGIS 2.8 and ERDAS IMAGINE 2015 to examine the vegetation distribution. Satellite remote sensing data coupled with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed to assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The observed 5-year interval analysis examines the amount of carbon absorbed using vegetation distribution. In 2015, the numerical results showed low vegetation distribution, therefore increased the acidity of the oceans and gravely affected fish species and corals. The outcomes suggest that the study area could be effectively utilized for carbon sequestration so as to mitigate ocean acidification. The vegetation changes measured through this investigation suggest an environmental shift and reduced vegetation carbon sink, and that threatens biodiversity and ecosystem. In order to sustain the amount of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystems, the identified ecological factors should be enhanced through the application of good land and forest management practices. This will increase the carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems thereby reducing direct loss to the atmosphere.

Keywords: remote sensing, vegetation dynamics, carbon sequestration, terrestrial carbon sink

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Authors: Nikola Góral, Piotr Mikołajczuk, Paweł Buczyński

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Much scientific research in the last 20 years has focused on the influence of global warming on the distribution and phenology of living organisms. Three potential responses to climate change are predicted: individual species may become extinct, adapt to new conditions in their existing range or change their range by migrating to places where climatic conditions are more favourable. It means not only migration to areas in other latitudes, but also different altitudes. In the case of dragonflies (Odonata), monitoring in Western Europe has shown that in response to global warming, dragonflies tend to change their range to a more northern one. The strongest response to global warming is observed in arctic and alpine species, as well as in species capable of migrating over long distances. The aim of the research was to assess whether the fauna of aquatic insects in high-mountain habitats has changed as a result of climate change and, if so, how big and what type these changes are. Dragonflies were chosen as a model organism because of their fast reaction to changes in the environment: they have high migration abilities and short life cycle. The state of the populations of boreal-mountain species and the extent to which lowland species entered high altitudes was assessed. The research was carried out on 20 sites in Western Sudetes, Southern Poland. They were located at an altitude of between 850 and 1250 m. The selected sites were representative of many types of valuable alpine habitats (subalpine raised bog, transitional spring bog, habitats associated with rivers and mountain streams). Several sites of anthropogenic origin were also selected. Thanks to this selection, a wide characterization of the fauna of the Karkonosze was made and it was compared whether the studied processes proceeded differently, depending on whether the habitat is primary or secondary. Both imagines and larvae were examined (by taking hydrobiological samples with a kick-net), and exuviae were also collected. Individual species dragonflies were characterized in terms of their reproductive, territorial and foraging behaviour. During each inspection, the basic physicochemical parameters of the water were measured. The population of the high-mountain dragonfly Somatochlora alpestris turned out to be in a good condition. This species was noted at several sites. Some of those sites were situated relatively low (995 m AMSL), which proves that the thermal conditions at the lower altitudes might be still optimal for this species. The protected by polish law species Somatochlora arctica, Aeshna subarctica and Leucorrhinia albifrons, as well as strongly associated with bogs Leucorrhinia dubia and Aeshna juncea bogs were observed. However, they were more frequent and more numerous in habitats of anthropogenic origin, which may suggest minor changes in the habitat preferences of dragonflies. The subject requires further research and observations over a longer time scale.

Keywords: alpine species, bioindication, global warming, habitat preferences, population dynamics

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Authors: Wei Ji

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This study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States, which has experienced significant urban sprawling in recent decades. The remote sensing of land cover changes in this area spanned over four decades from 1972 through 2010. The project was implemented in two stages: the first stage focused on detection of long-term trends of urban land cover change, while the second one examined how to detect the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. For the first-stage study, six Landsat images were used with a time interval of about five years for the period from 1972 through 2001. Four major land cover types, built-up land, forestland, non-forest vegetation land, and surface water, were mapped using supervised image classification techniques. The study found that over the three decades the built-up lands in the study area were more than doubled, which was mainly at the expense of non-forest vegetation lands. Surprisingly and interestingly, the area also saw a significant gain in surface water coverage. This observation raised questions: How have human activities and precipitation variation jointly impacted surface water cover during recent decades? How can we detect such coupled impacts through remote sensing analysis? These questions led to the second stage of the study, in which we designed and developed approaches to detecting fine-scale surface waters and analyzing coupled effects of human impact and precipitation variation on the waters. To effectively detect urban landscape changes that might be jointly shaped by precipitation variation, our study proposed “urban wetscapes” (loosely-defined urban wetlands) as a new indicator for remote sensing detection. The study examined whether urban wetscape dynamics was a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two driving forces. To better detect this indicator, a rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. Three SPOT images for years 1992, 2008, and 2010, respectively were classified with this technique to generate the four types of land cover as described above. The spatial analyses of remotely-sensed wetscape changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed, as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to accurately reveal urban wetscape change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that urban wetscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds in response to human impacts at different scales. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while generally smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These results confirm that wetscape dynamics can effectively reveal the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. As such, remote sensing of this indicator provides new insights into the relationships between urban land cover changes and driving forces.

Keywords: urban land cover, human impact, climate change, rule-based classification, across-scale analysis

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Resham Lal Phuldel

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This study based on a bilateral development cooperation project funded by the governments of Nepal and Finland. The first phase of the project has been completed in August 2012 and the phase II started in September 2013 and will end September 2018. The project strengthens the capacity of local governments in 14 districts to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene in Western development region and in Mid-Western development region of Nepal. In recent days, several spring sources have been dried out or slowly decreasing its yield across the country due to changing character of rainfall, increasing evaporative losses and some other manmade causes such as land use change, infrastructure development work etc. To sustain the hilly communities, the sources have to be able to provide sufficient water to serve the population, either on its own or in conjunction with other sources. Phase III have measured all water sources in Tanahu district in 2004 and sources were located with the GPS. Phase II has repeated the exercise to see changes in the district. 3320 water sources as identified in 2004 and altogether 4223 including new water sources were identified and measured in 2014. Between 2004 and 2014, 50% flow rate (yield) deduction of point sources’ average yield in 10 years is found. Similarly, 21.6% and 34% deductions of average yield were found in spring and stream water sources respectively. The rainfall from 2002 to 2013 shows erratic rainfalls in the district. The monsoon peak month is not consistent and the trend shows the decrease of annual rainfall 16.7 mm/year. Further, the temperature trend between 2002 and 2013 shows warming of + 0.0410C/year.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, source discharge, water sources

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Authors: Elnaz Abbasian, Mohsen Faizi

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In its thousand-year development, architecture has gained valuable patterns. Iran’s desert regions possess developed patterns of traditional architecture and outstanding skeletal features. Unfortunately increasing population and urbanization growth in the past decade as well as the lack of harmony with environment’s texture has destroyed such permanent concepts in the building’s skeleton, causing a lot of energy waste in the modern architecture. The important question is how cooling patterns of Iran’s traditional architecture can be used in a new way in the modern architecture of residential buildings? This research is library-based and documental that looks at sustainable development, analyzes the features of Iranian architecture in hot and dry climate in terms of sustainability as well as historical patterns, and makes a model for real environment. By methodological analysis of past, it intends to suggest a new pattern for residential buildings’ cooling in Iran’s hot and dry climate which is in full accordance to the ecology of the design and at the same time possesses the architectural indices of the past. In the process of cities’ physical development, ecological measures, in proportion to desert’s natural background and climate conditions, has kept the natural fences, preventing buildings from facing climate adversities. Designing and construction of buildings with this viewpoint can reduce the energy needed for maintaining and regulating environmental conditions and with the use of appropriate building technology help minimizing the consumption of fossil fuels while having permanent patterns of desert buildings’ architecture.

Keywords: sustainability concepts, sustainable development, energy climate architecture, fossil fuel, hot and dry climate, patterns of traditional sustainability for residential buildings, modern pattern of cooling

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Authors: Ran Etgar, Sarit Freund

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Agile project management (APM) has been developed originally for software development project. Construction projects seemed to be more apt to traditional water-fall approach than to APM. However, Construction project suffers from similar problems that necessitated the invention of APM, mainly the need to break down the project structure to small increments, thus minimizing the needed managerial planning and design. Since the classical structure of APM is not applicable the way it is to construction project, a modified version of APM was devised. This method, nicknamed 'The anchor method', exploits the fundamentals of APM (i.e., iterations, or sprints of short time frames or timeboxes, cross-functional teams, risk reduction and adaptation to changes) and adjust them to the construction world. The projects had to be structured appropriately to proactively and quickly adapt to change. The method aims to encompass human behavior and lean towards adaptivity rather than predictability. To enable smooth application of the method, a special project management software was developed, so as to provide solid administrational help and accurate data. The method is tested on a bunch of construction projects and some key performance indicators (KPIs) are collected. According to preliminary results the method is indeed very advantageous and with proper assimilation can radically change the construction project management paradigm.

Keywords: agile project management, construction, information systems, project management

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Authors: Linlin Guo, Baofeng Li

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Zhengzhou is a typical plain city with a high population density and a permanent population of 10 million, located in central China. The scale of this city is constantly expanding, and the urban form has changed dramatically by the accelerating process of urbanization, which makes a great effect on the urban microclimate. In order to study the influence of block morphology on urban micro-climate, air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and so on in three typical types of blocks in the center of Zhengzhou were collected, which was chosen to perform the fixed and mobile observation. After data handling and analysis, a series of graphs and diagrams were obtained to reflect the differences in the influence of different types of block morphology on the urban microclimate. These can provide targeted strategies for urban design to improve and regulate urban micro-climate.

Keywords: urban micro-climate, block morphology, fixed and mobile observation, urban design

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Kolagani, Yingcai Xiao

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Adaptation of Natural User Interface (NUI) has been slow and limited. NUI devices like Microsoft’s Kinect and Ultraleap’s Leap Motion can only interact with a handful applications that were specifically designed and implemented for them. A NUI device just can’t be used to directly control millions of applications that are not designed to take NUI input. This is in the similar situation like the adaptation of color TVs. At the early days of color TV, the broadcasting format was in RGB, which was not viewable by blackand-white TVs. TV broadcasters were reluctant to produce color programs due to limited viewership. TV viewers were reluctant to buy color TVs because there were limited programs to watch. Color TV’s breakthrough moment came after the adaptation of NTSC standard which allowed color broadcasts to be compatible with the millions of existing black-and-white TVs. This research presents a framework to use NUI devices to control existing non-NUI applications without reprogramming them. The methodology is to create an adapter to convert input from NUI devices into input compatible with that generated by CLI (Command Line Input) and GUI (Graphical User Interface) devices. The CLI/GUI compatible input is then sent to the active application through the operating system just like any input from a CLI/GUI device to control the non-NUI program that the user is controlling. A sample adapter has been created to convert input from Kinect to keyboard strokes, so one can use the input from Kinect to control any applications that take keyboard input, such as Microsoft’s PowerPoint. When the users use the adapter to control their PowerPoint presentations, they can free themselves from standing behind a computer to use its keyboard and can roam around in front of the audience to use hand gestures to control the PowerPoint. It is hopeful such adapters can accelerate the adaptation of NUI devices.

Keywords: command line input, graphical user interface, human computer interaction, natural user interface, NUI adapter

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Authors: Kazi Enamul Hoque

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Initiatives on sustainable development are currently aggressively pursued throughout the world. The Malaysian government has developed key policies and strategies for over 30 years to achieve the nation’s policy objectives which are designed to mitigate the issues of security, energy efficiency and environmental impact to meet the rising energy demand. Malaysia’s current focus is on developing effective policies on renewable energy (RE) in order to reduce dependency on fossil fuel and contribute towards mitigating the effects of climate change. In this light mass awareness should be considered as the highest priority to protect the environment and to escape disaster due to climate change. Schools can be the reliable and effective foundation to prepare students to get familiar with environmental issues such as renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Teachers can play a vital role to create awareness among students about the advantages and disadvantages of using different renewable and nonrenewable energy resources. Thus, this study aims to investigate teachers’ knowledge, perceptions and attitudes towards renewable energy through a survey aiming a sustainable energy future. Five hundred sets of questionnaires were distributed to the school teachers in Malaysia. Total 420 questionnaires were returned of which 410 were complete to analyze. Finding shows that teachers are very familiar with the renewable energy like solar, wind and also geothermal. Most teachers were not sure about the Photovoltaics and biodiesel. Furthermore, teachers are also aware that primary energy in Malaysia is imported fossil fuels. Most teachers heard about the renewable energy in Malaysia and only few claims that they did not hear of such things and the others said that they never heard of it. The outcomes of the study will assist the energy policy makers to use teachers to create mass awareness of energy usages for future planning.

Keywords: Malaysia, non-renewable energy, renewable energy, school teacher

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Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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Authors: Nishaben Dholakiya, Anirban Roy, Ranjan Dey

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The unprecedented rise in global temperatures has triggered complex changes in marine ecosystems, necessitating a deeper understanding of seawater's thermophysical properties by experimentally measuring ultrasonic velocity and density at varying temperatures and salinity. This study investigates the critical relationship between temperature variations and molecular-level interactions in Arabian Sea surface waters, specifically focusing on internal pressure (π) and cohesion energy density (CED) as key indicators of ecosystem disruption. Our experimental findings reveal that elevated temperatures significantly reduce internal pressure, weakening the intermolecular forces that maintain seawater's structural integrity. This reduction in π correlates directly with decreased habitat stability for marine organisms, particularly affecting pressure-sensitive species and their physiological processes. Similarly, the observed decline in cohesion energy density at higher temperatures indicates a fundamental shift in water molecule organization, impacting the dissolution and distribution of vital nutrients and gases. These molecular-level changes cascade through the ecosystem, affecting everything from planktonic organisms to complex food webs. By employing advanced machine learning techniques, including Stacked Ensemble Machine Learning (SEML) and AdaBoost (AB), we developed highly accurate predictive models (>99% accuracy) for these thermophysical parameters. The results provide crucial insights into the mechanistic relationship between climate warming and marine ecosystem degradation, offering valuable data for environmental policymaking and conservation strategies. The novelty of this research serves as no such thermodynamic investigation has been conducted before in literature, whereas this research establishes a quantitative framework for understanding how molecular-level changes in seawater properties directly influence marine ecosystem stability, emphasizing the urgent need for climate change mitigation efforts.

Keywords: thermophysical properties, Arabian Sea, internal pressure, cohesion energy density, machine learning

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Authors: Kailash Chandra, Devanshu Gupta

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The Himalayan Mountains of India fall under two biogeographic zones Trans Himalaya (TH) and Himalaya and seven biotic provinces (TH-Ladakh Mountains, TH-Tibetan Plateau, TH-Sikkim, North-West Himalaya, West Himalaya, Central Himalaya, and East Himalaya). Because of the extreme environment and altitudinal variations, unique physiography, varied ecological conditions, and different vegetations, the Himalaya exhibit a rich assemblage of life, both flora, and fauna, further subjected to the impacts of climate change. To the authors’ best knowledge, there is no comprehensive account except for sporadic faunal investigations, to assess or interpret the insect diversity and their biogeographic distribution in Indian Himalaya (IH), one of the biodiversity hotspots. Therefore, in this paper, a compelling review of the extensive knowledge of insect diversity of IH is presented for the first time to the best of our knowledge. The inventory of the known insect species of IH was compiled from the exploration cum faunal-study data ready with the zoological survey of India, Kolkata as well as from the information published in the scientific literature till date. The species were listed with their valid names with their distribution in seven biotic provinces of IH. The insect fauna of IH represents about 38% of the identified insect diversity of India. The interpretation of data provided significant information in detecting possible gap areas in the taxonomic representation of different insect orders. Archaeognatha, Zygentoma, Ephemeroptera, Phasmida, Embioptera, Psocoptera, Phthiraptera, Strepsiptera, Megaloptera, Raphidioptera, Siphonaptera, and Mecoptera need revisions, and it is required to collect more samples from remote areas of the region. Scope for finding new taxa even in the most diverse orders, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera, Hymenoptera, Diptera, and Hemiptera cannot be overlooked. Exploration of cold deserts of Trans Himalaya and East Himalaya (Arunachal Pradesh) may result in a good number of new species from these regions. The most notable data was that many of the species recorded from Himalaya are still known from their type localities only, so there is an urgency to revisit and resurvey those collection localities for the evaluation of the status of those species. It is also required to assess and monitor the impact of climate change on the diversity of insects inhabiting in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. DNA barcoding especially pests and biological control agents to solve the problems of identification in species complexes is also the need of the hour. In a nutshell, it can be concluded that the inventory of insects of this region is extensive but is far from final as every year hundreds of new species are described.

Keywords: catalog, climate change, diversity, DNA barcoding

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Authors: Thabiso Michael Mokotjomela, Jasper Knight

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Intensification of agricultural food production in sub-Saharan Africa is of paramount importance as a means of increasing the food security of communities that are already experiencing a range of environmental and socio-economic stresses. However, achieving this aim faces several challenges including ongoing climate change, increased resistance of diseases and pests, extreme environmental degradation partly due to biological invasions, land tenure and management practices, socio-economic developments of rural populations, and national population growth. In particular, non-native plant species tend to display greater adaptation capacity to environmental stress than native species that form important food resource base for human beings, thus suggesting a potential for usage to shift accordingly. Based on review of the historical benefits of non-native plant species in food production in sub-Saharan Africa, we propose that use of non-invasive, non-native plant species and/or the genetic modification of native species might be viable options for future agricultural sustainability in this region. Coupled with strategic foresight planning (e.g. use of biological control agents that suppress plant species’ invasions), the consumptive use of already-introduced non-native species might help in containment and control of possible negative environmental impacts of non-native species on native species, ecosystems and biodiversity, and soil fertility and hydrology. Use of non-native species in food production should be accompanied by low cost agroecology practices (e.g. conservation agriculture and agrobiodiversity) that may promote the gradual recovery of natural capital, ecosystem services, and promote conservation of the natural environment as well as enhance food security.

Keywords: food security, invasive species, agroecology, agrobiodiversity, socio-economic stresses

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Authors: Osman Yildiz

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As it is predicted 2559 years before there is nothing permanent except change. In our turbulent World, Organizations will always be faced with the challenge of determining the path that will always keep them on balance en route that will bring success. That means from top to bottom, every organisation is exposed to fight to stay afloat and compete while they face the continuous prospect of change in an increasingly competitive and globalized World. Otherwise, they would fail to realize their goals and targets, and ultimately would disappear. But the organizations that will celebrate success five or ten years from now will be the winners of the fight by having recognizing that planning the change was only the first step in the journey and put sufficient efforts into the task of leading change. Increasingly unpredictable and competitive organizational environments have put pressure on leaders across all industries to better manage the change. The key of establishing effective change and transformation in organisations lies on the steps taken before the change happens depending to the quality of the human sources; readiness for change, acknowledgement by management, prepared leaders, motivated employees, overcoming the resistance to change and ultimately adapting change into the organization. Due to these factors, leaders managing the organisational development can ensure organizations and employees to meet new performance targets, motivation and skills rapidly and effectively. Finally, this article will provide some tools for leaders, and discuss how to catch organisational development and manage the innovations in effective ways.

Keywords: managing the change, organizational change, human factor, leaders, globalization, organisational development

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that affect crop yields and are directly or indirectly affected by climate variability and change. The study examined climate-induced yield level, yield variability and gap of maize during 1981-2010 main growing season in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Pearson correlation test was employed to see the relationship between climate variables and yield. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze annual yield variability. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate the growth and yield of maize for the study period. The result indicated that maize grain yield was strongly (P<0.01) and positively correlated with seasonal rainfall (r=0.67 at Melkassa and r = 0.69 at Ziway) in the CRV while day temperature affected grain yield negatively (r= -0.44) at Ziway (P<0.05) during the simulation period. Variations in total seasonal rainfall at Melkassa and Ziway explained 44.9 and 48.5% of the variation in yield, respectively, under optimum nutrition. Following variation in rainfall, high yield variability (CV=23.5%, Melkassa and CV=25.3%, Ziway) was observed for optimum nutrient simulation than the corresponding nutrient limited simulation (CV=16%, Melkassa and 24.1%, Ziway) in the study period. The observed farmers’ yield was 72, 52 and 43% of the researcher-managed, water-limited and potential yield of the crop, respectively, indicating a wide maize yield gap in the region. The study revealed rainfed crop production in the CRV is prone to yield variabilities due to its high dependence on seasonal rainfall and nutrient level. Moreover, the high coefficient of variation in the yield gap for the 30-year period also foretells the need for dependable water supply at both locations. Given the wide yield gap especially during lower rainfall years across the simulation periods, it signifies the requirement for a more dependable application of irrigation water and a potential shift to irrigated agriculture; hence, adopting options that can improve water availability and nutrient use efficiency would be crucial for crop production in the area.

Keywords: climate variability, crop model, water availability, yield gap, yield variability

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Authors: Akinyemi Benjamin

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This study investigates the prevailing HRDC Nigerian commercial banks as perceived by employees in general. The perceptional differences on the state of HRDC by gender category are also examined. Using Abraham and Rao’s HRDC 38-item questionnaire, data from 310 respondents, with 303 valid responses, were entered into excel sheet and analysed to determine frequencies, mean scores, standard deviation and percentages for four variables: HRDC, general climate, HRD mechanism, and OCTAPAC culture. Results of analysis indicate that generally, employees perceive the overall HRDC and its three dimensions of general climate, HRD mechanism and OCTAPAC culture to be at an average or moderate level. The perceptions of both male and female subjects also indicate an average HRDC level although participants report slightly higher scores than their male subjects but these scores are still at an average level on all the dimensions of HRDC measured. The implications of this result for organizations in general and the banking industry in particular are discussed.

Keywords: HRDC, HRD mechanism, general climate, OCTAPAC culture, gender

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Authors: Agostinho Antunes

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The completion of the human genome sequencing in 2003 opened a new perspective into the importance of whole genome sequencing projects, and currently multiple species are having their genomes completed sequenced, from simple organisms, such as bacteria, to more complex taxa, such as mammals. This voluminous sequencing data generated across multiple organisms provides also the framework to better understand the genetic makeup of such species and related ones, allowing to explore the genetic changes underlining the evolution of diverse phenotypic traits. Here, recent results from our group retrieved from comparative evolutionary genomic analyses of varied species will be considered to exemplify how gene novelty and gene enhancement by positive selection might have been determinant in the success of adaptive radiations into diverse habitats and lifestyles.

Keywords: adaptation, animals, evolution, genomics

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Authors: Taraneh Estedlal

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The objective of this study was to review in-vivo and in-vitro studies to compare the effectiveness of bulk-fill and conventional resin composites with regard to marginal adaptation, polymerization shrinkage, and other mechanical properties.PubMed and Scopus databases was investigated for in-vitro studies and randomized clinical trials comparing incidence of fractures, color stability, marginal adaptation, pain and discomfort, recurrent caries, occlusion, pulpal reaction, and proper proximal contacts of restorations made with conventional and bulk resins. The failure rate of conventional and flowable bulk-fill resin composites was not significantly different to sculptable bulk-fill resin composites. The objective of this study was to review in-vivo and in-vitro studies to compare the effectiveness of bulk-fill and conventional resin composites with regard to marginal adaptation, polymerization shrinkage, and other mechanical properties. PubMed and Scopus databases was investigated for in-vitro studies and randomized clinical trials comparing one of the pearlier mentioned properties between bulk-fill and control composites. Despite differences in physical and in-vitro properties, failure rate of conventional and flowable bulk-fill resin composites was not significantly different to sculptable bulk-fill resin composites.

Keywords: polymerization shrinkage, color stability, marginal adaptation, recurrent caries, occlusion, pulpal reaction

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Authors: Esra Yaldız, Tugba Bulbul Bahtiyar, Dicle Aydın

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Humans meet their need for shelter via housing which they structure in line with habits and necessities. In housing culture, traditional dwelling has an important role as a social and cultural transmitter. It provides concrete data by being planned in parallel with users’ life style and habits, having their own dynamics and components as well as their designs in harmony with nature, environment and the context they exist. Textures of traditional dwelling create a healthy and cozy living environment by means of adaptation to natural conditions, topography, climate, and context; utilization of construction materials found nearby and usage of traditional techniques and forms; and natural isolation of construction materials used. One of the examples of traditional settlements in Anatolia is Kilistra (Gökyurt) settlement of Konya province. Being among the important centers of Christianity in the past, besides having distinctive architecture, culture, natural features, and geographical differences (climate, geological structure, material), Kilistra can also be identified as a traditional settlement consisting of family, religious and economic structures as well as cultural interaction. The foundation of this study is the traditional residential texture of Kilistra with its unique features. The objective of this study is to assess the conformity of traditional residential texture of Kilistra with present topography, climatic data, and geographical values within the context of human scale construction, usage of green space, indigenous construction materials, construction form, building envelope, and space organization in housing.

Keywords: traditional residential architecture, Kilistra, Anatolia, Konya

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Authors: Jalila Jbilou, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Pierre Gosselin

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Background: West Nile virus is increasingly an important public health issue in North America. In Canada, WVN was officially reported in Toronto and Montréal for the first time in 2001. During the last decade, several WNV events have been reported in several Canadian provinces. The main objective of the present study is to update the frequency of the climate conditions favorable to WNV outbreaks in Canada. Method: Statistical frequency analysis has been used to estimate the return period for climate conditions associated with WNV outbreaks for the 1961–2050 period. The best fit is selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results: Results show that the climate conditions related to the 2002 event, for Montreal and Toronto, are becoming more frequent. For Saskatoon, the highest DD20 events recorded for the last few decades were observed in 2003 and 2007. The estimated return periods are 30 years and 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The emergence of WNV was related to extremely high DD values in the summer. However, some exceptions may be related to several factors such as virus persistence, vector migration, and also improved diagnosis and reporting levels. It is clear that such climate conditions have become much more common in the last decade and will likely continue to do so over future decades.

Keywords: West Nile virus, climate, North America, statistical frequency analysis, risk estimation, public health, modeling, scenario, temperature, precipitation

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Authors: Nizar Abu-Jaber

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Late Pleistocene and Holocene carbonate crusts in the south of Jordan were studied using a combination of field documentation, petrography, geochemical and isotopic techniques. These surficial crusts and vein deposits appear to have formed as a result of interaction between near-surface groundwater, surficial soil and sediments and rising carbon dioxide. Rising mantle CO2 dissolves in the water to create carbonic acid, which in turn dissolves the calcite in the soil in the sediments. When the pH rises later due to degassing, the carbonate crusts are left in the places where the water was flowing in veins, channels and interfaces between high and low permeability materials. The crusts have the potential for being important records of natural and human agencies on the landscape of the area. They reflect the isotopic composition of the waters in which they precipitated in, and also contain isotopic information about the aeolian calcium fluxes affecting the area (using strontium isotopes). Moreover, changing stream valley base levels can be identified and measured, which can help quantify the rates of tectonic movement. Finally, human activities such and channel construction and terrace building can be identified and traced temporally and spatially using these deposits.

Keywords: anthropogenic change, carbonate crusts, environmental change, Jordan

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Authors: Dipankar Saha, J. P. Singh, C. B. Pandey

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Indian Thar desert being the seventh largest in the world is the main hot sand desert occupies nearly 385,000km2 and about 9% of the area of the country harbours several species likely the flora of 682 species (63 introduced species) belonging to 352 genera and 87 families. The degree of endemism of plant species in the Thar desert is 6.4 percent, which is relatively higher than the degree of endemism in the Sahara desert which is very significant for the conservationist to envisage. The advent and development of computer technology for digitization and data base management coupled with the rapidly increasing importance of biodiversity conservation resulted in the invention of biodiversity informatics as discipline of basic sciences with multiple applications. Aichi Target 19 as an outcome of Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) specifically mandates the development of an advanced and shared biodiversity knowledge base. Information on species distributions in space is the crux of effective management of biodiversity in the rapidly changing world. The efficiency of biodiversity management is being increased rapidly by various stakeholders like researchers, policymakers, and funding agencies with the knowledge and application of biodiversity informatics. Herbarium specimens being a vital repository for biodiversity conservation especially in climate change scenario the digitization process usually aims to improve access and to preserve delicate specimens and in doing so creating large sets of images as a part of the existing repository as arid plant information facility for long-term future usage. As the leaf characters are important for describing taxa and distinguishing between them and they can be measured from herbarium specimens as well. As a part of this activity, laminar characterization (leaves being the most important characters in assessing climate change impact) initially resulted in classification of more than thousands collections belonging to ten families like Acanthaceae, Aizoaceae, Amaranthaceae, Asclepiadaceae, Anacardeaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Aristolochiaceae, Berseraceae and Bignoniaceae etc. Taxonomic diversity indices has also been worked out being one of the important domain of biodiversity informatics approaches. The digitization process also encompasses workflows which incorporate automated systems to enable us to expand and speed up the digitisation process. The digitisation workflows used to be on a modular system which has the potential to be scaled up. As they are being developed with a geo-referencing tool and additional quality control elements and finally placing specimen images and data into a fully searchable, web-accessible database. Our effort in this paper is to elucidate the role of BIs, present effort of database development of the existing botanical collection of institute repository. This effort is expected to be considered as a part of various global initiatives having an effective biodiversity information facility. This will enable access to plant biodiversity data that are fit-for-use by scientists and decision makers working on biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in the region and iso-climatic situation of the world.

Keywords: biodiversity informatics, climate change, digitization, herbarium, laminar characters, web accessible interface

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Authors: Kamila Widziewicz-Rzonca

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The presence of PM bound water as an integral chemical compound of suspended aerosol particles (PM) has become one of the hottest issues in recent years. The UN climate summits on climate change (COP24) indicate that PM of anthropogenic origin (released mostly from coal combustion) is directly responsible for climate change. Chemical changes at the particle-liquid (water) interface determine many phenomena occurring in the atmosphere such as visibility, cloud formation or precipitation intensity. Since water-soluble particles such as nitrates, sulfates, or sea salt easily become cloud condensation nuclei, they affect the climate for example by increasing cloud droplet concentration. Aerosol water is a master component of atmospheric aerosols and a medium that enables all aqueous-phase reactions occurring in the atmosphere. Thanks to a thorough bibliometric analysis conducted using CiteSpace Software, it was possible to identify past trends and possible future directions in measuring aerosol-bound water. This work, in fact, doesn’t aim at reviewing the existing literature in the related topic but is an in-depth bibliometric analysis exploring existing gaps and new frontiers in the topic of PM-bound water. To assess the major scientific areas related to PM-bound water and clearly define which among those are the most active topics we checked Web of Science databases from 1996 till 2018. We give an answer to the questions: which authors, countries, institutions and aerosol journals to the greatest degree influenced PM-bound water research? Obtained results indicate that the paper with the greatest citation burst was Tang In and Munklewitz H.R. 'water activities, densities, and refractive indices of aqueous sulfates and sodium nitrate droplets of atmospheric importance', 1994. The largest number of articles in this specific field was published in atmospheric chemistry and physics. An absolute leader in the quantity of publications among all research institutions is the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA). Meteorology and atmospheric sciences is a category with the most studies in this field. A very small number of studies on PM-bound water conduct a quantitative measurement of its presence in ambient particles or its origin. Most articles rather point PM-bound water as an artifact in organic carbon and ions measurements without any chemical analysis of its contents. This scientometric study presents the current and most actual literature regarding particulate bound water.

Keywords: systematic review, aerosol-bound water, PM-bound water, CiteSpace, knowledge domain

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Authors: Elaine Cristina Barboza, Antonio Jaschke Machado

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This paper discusses micrometeorological aspects of the urban climate in three cities in Western São Paulo State: Presidente Prudente, Assis, and Iepê. Particular attention is paid to the method used to estimate the components of the energy balance at the surface. Estimates of convective fluxes showed that the Bowen ratio was an indicator of the local climate and that its magnitude varied between 0.3 and 0.7. Maximum values for the Bowen ratio occurred earlier in Iepê (11:00 am) than in Presidente Prudente (4:00 pm). The results indicate that the Bowen ratio is modulated by the radiation balance at the surface and by different clusters of vegetation.

Keywords: Bowen ratio, medium-sized cities, surface energy balance, urban climate

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Authors: Livia Herle

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A large part of the Principality of Liechtenstein is covered by forest. Three-quarters of this forest is defined as protective due to the alpine landscape of the country, which is deteriorating the quality of the wood. Nevertheless, the forest is one of the most important sources of raw material. However, out of the wood harvested annually in Liechtenstein, about two-thirds are used directly as an energy source, drastically shortening up the carbon storage cycle of wood. Furthermore, due to climate change, forest structures are changing. Predictions for the forest in Liechtenstein have stated that the spruce will mostly vanish in low altitudes, only being able to survive in the higher regions. In contrast, hardwood species will experience a rise, resulting in a more mixed forest. Thus, the main research focus will be put upon the potential of hardwood as well as prolonging the lifespan of a timber log before ending up as an energy source. An analysis of the local occurrence of hardwood species and their quality will serve as a tool to implement this knowledge upon constructional solutions. As a system that works with short spam timber and thus qualifies for the regional conditions of hardwood, reciprocal frame systems will be further investigated. These can be defined as load-bearing structures with only two beams connecting at a time, avoiding complex joining situations. Furthermore, every beam is mutually supporting. This allows the usage of short pieces of preferably massive wood. As a result, the system permits for an easy assembly but also disassembly. To promote a more circular application of wood, possible cascading scenarios of the structural solutions will be added. In a workshop at the School of Architecture of the University of Liechtenstein in the Sommer Semester 2024, prototypes in 1:1 of reciprocal frame systems using only local hardwood will help as a tool to further test the theoretical analyses.

Keywords: hardwood, cascading wood, reciprocal frames, crooked wood, forest structures, climate change

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Authors: Liliana Rusu

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The goal of the proposed work is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the wind and wave climate in the Romanian nearshore, using the results provided by numerical models. The Romanian coastal environment is located in the western side of the Black Sea, the more energetic part of the sea, an area with heavy maritime traffic and various offshore operations. Information about the wind and wave climate in the Romanian waters is mainly based on observations at Gloria drilling platform (70 km from the coast). As regards the waves, the measurements of the wave characteristics are not so accurate due to the method used, being also available for a limited period. For this reason, the wave simulations that cover large temporal and spatial scales represent an option to describe better the wave climate. To assess the wind climate in the target area spanning 1992–2016, data provided by the NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and consisting in wind fields at 10m above the sea level are used. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the wind fields is good enough to represent the wind variability over the area. For the same 25-year period, as considered for the wind climate, this study characterizes the wave climate from a wave hindcast data set that uses NCEP-CFSR winds as input for a model system SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) based. The wave simulation results with a two-level modelling scale have been validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data. The second level of the system, with a higher resolution in the geographical space (0.02°×0.02°), is focused on the Romanian coastal environment. The main wave parameters simulated at this level are used to analyse the wave climate. The spatial distributions of the wind speed, wind direction and the mean significant wave height have been computed as the average of the total data. As resulted from the amount of data, the target area presents a generally moderate wave climate that is affected by the storm events developed in the Black Sea basin. Both wind and wave climate presents high seasonal variability. All the results are computed as maps that help to find the more dangerous areas. A local analysis has been also employed in some key locations corresponding to highly sensitive areas, as for example the main Romanian harbors.

Keywords: numerical simulations, Romanian nearshore, waves, wind

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Marianna Nigra, Maicol Negrello

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Efficiency, productivity, and sustainability are important factors for structure and the application of processes in green building. Various previous studies have addressed efficiency, productivity, and sustainability separately. This research study aims to investigate the implications of these three factors taking together. Frequency analysis and the ranking techniques are carried out to explore the connection between these factors. The interconnection matrix has been developed and functional grouping is made based upon data from expert opinion and field professionals. The existence of a relationship, the type of relationship and the scaled impact have been drawn. Additionally, a system diagram has been developed to show the variable correlation. The results of expert opinion show that efficiency, productivity, and sustainability have a stronger impact on green buildings.

Keywords: green roof regulation, architecture, climate adaptation, resilience, innovation management

Procedia PDF Downloads 104