Search results for: stochastic approximation

Authors: Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei, Hamed Afsoos Biria, Ata Ghabraei, Mir Abdolhamid Mehrdad

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Awareness of effective land using issues in coastal area including protection of natural ecosystems and coastal environment due to the increasing of human life along the coast is of great importance. There are numerous valuable structures and heritages which are located in defence sites and waterfront area. Marine structures such as groins, sea walls and detached breakwaters are constructed in coast to improve the coast stability against bed erosion due to changing wave and climate pattern. Marine mechanisms and interaction with the shore protection structures need to be intensively studied. Groins are one of the most prominent structures that are used in shore protection to create a safe environment for coastal area by maintaining the land against progressive coastal erosion. The main structural function of a groin is to control the long shore current and littoral sediment transport. This structure can be submerged and provide the necessary beach protection without negative environmental impact. However, for submerged structures adopted for beach protection, the shoreline response to these structures is not well understood at present. Nowadays, modelling and computer simulation are used to assess beach morphology in the vicinity of marine structures to reduce their environmental impact. The objective of this study is to predict the beach morphology in the vicinity of submerged groins and comparison with non-submerged groins with focus on a part of the coast located in Dahane sar Sefidrood, Guilan province, Iran where serious coast erosion has occurred recently. The simulations were obtained using a one-line model which can be used as a first approximation of shoreline prediction in the vicinity of groins. The results of the proposed model are compared with field measurements to determine the shape of the coast. Finally, the results of the present study show that using submerged groins can have a good efficiency to control the beach erosion without causing severe environmental impact to the coast. The important outcome from this study can be employed in optimum designing of defence sites in the coastal cities to improve their efficiency in terms of re-using the heritage lands.

Keywords: submerged structures, groin, shore protective structures, coastal cities

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Suguru Miyauchi, Toshiyuki Hayase

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Biological membranes have selective permeability, and the capsules or cells enclosed by the membrane show the deformation by the osmotic flow. This mass transport phenomenon is observed everywhere in a living body. For the understanding of the mass transfer in a body, it is necessary to consider the mass transfer phenomenon across the membrane as well as the deformation of the membrane by a flow. To our knowledge, in the numerical analysis, the method for mass transfer across the moving membrane has not been established due to the difficulty of the treating of the mass flux permeating through the moving membrane with selective permeability. In the existing methods for the mass transfer across the membrane, the approximate delta function is used to communicate the quantities on the interface. The methods can reproduce the permeation of the solute, but cannot reproduce the non-permeation. Moreover, the computational accuracy decreases with decreasing of the permeable coefficient of the membrane. This study aims to develop the numerical method capable of treating three-dimensional problems of mass transfer across the moving flexible membrane. One of the authors developed the numerical method with high accuracy based on the finite element method. This method can capture the discontinuity on the membrane sharply due to the consideration of the jumps in concentration and concentration gradient in the finite element discretization. The formulation of the method takes into account the membrane movement, and both permeable and non-permeable membranes can be treated. However, searching the cross points of the membrane and fluid element boundaries and splitting the fluid element into sub-elements are needed for the numerical integral. Therefore, cumbersome operation is required for a three-dimensional problem. In this paper, we proposed an improved method to avoid the search and split operations, and confirmed its effectiveness. The membrane shape was treated implicitly by introducing the level set function. As the construction of the level set function, the membrane shape in one fluid element was expressed by the shape function of the finite element method. By the numerical experiment, it was found that the shape function with third order appropriately reproduces the membrane shapes. The same level of accuracy compared with the previous method using search and split operations was achieved by using a number of sampling points of the numerical integral. The effectiveness of the method was confirmed by solving several model problems.

Keywords: finite element method, level set method, mass transfer, membrane permeability

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Madjid Karimirad

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Floating solar was not very well-known in the renewable energy field a decade ago; however, there has been tremendous growth internationally with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of nearly 30% in recent years. To reach the goal of global net-zero emission by 2050, all renewable energy sources including solar should be used. Considering that 40% of the world’s population lives within 100 kilometres of the coasts, floating solar in coastal waters is an obvious energy solution. However, this requires more robust floating solar solutions. This paper tries to enlighten the fundamental requirements in the design of floating solar for offshore installations from the hydrodynamic and offshore engineering points of view. In this regard, a closer look at dynamic characteristics, stochastic behaviour and nonlinear phenomena appearing in this kind of structure is a major focus of the current article. Floating solar structures are alternative and very attractive green energy installations with (a) Less strain on land usage for densely populated areas; (b) Natural cooling effect with efficiency gain; and (c) Increased irradiance from the reflectivity of water. Also, floating solar in conjunction with the hydroelectric plants can optimise energy efficiency and improve system reliability. The co-locating of floating solar units with other types such as offshore wind, wave energy, tidal turbines as well as aquaculture (fish farming) can result in better ocean space usage and increase the synergies. Floating solar technology has seen considerable developments in installed capacities in the past decade. Development of design standards and codes of practice for floating solar technologies deployed on both inland water-bodies and offshore is required to ensure robust and reliable systems that do not have detrimental impacts on the hosting water body. Floating solar will account for 17% of all PV energy produced worldwide by 2030. To enhance the development, further research in this area is needed. This paper aims to discuss the main critical design aspects in light of the load and load effects that the floating solar platforms are subjected to. The key considerations in hydrodynamics, aerodynamics and simultaneous effects from the wind and wave load actions will be discussed. The link of dynamic nonlinear loading, limit states and design space considering the environmental conditions is set to enable a better understanding of the design requirements of fast-evolving floating solar technology.

Keywords: floating solar, offshore renewable energy, wind and wave loading, design space

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Paolino Di Felice

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The background and significance of this study come from papers already appeared in the literature which measured the impact of public services (e.g., hospitals, schools, ...) on the citizens’ needs satisfaction (one of the dimensions of QOL studies) by calculating the distance between the place where they live and the location on the territory of the services. Those studies assume that the citizens' dwelling coincides with the centroid of the polygon that expresses the boundary of the administrative district, within the city, they belong to. Such an assumption “introduces a maximum measurement error equal to the greatest distance between the centroid and the border of the administrative district.”. The case study, this abstract reports about, investigates the implications descending from the adoption of such an approach but at geographical scales greater than the urban one, namely at the three levels of nesting of the Italian administrative units: the (20) regions, the (110) provinces, and the 8,094 municipalities. To carry out this study, it needs to be decided: a) how to store the huge amount of (spatial and descriptive) input data and b) how to process them. The latter aspect involves: b.1) the design of algorithms to investigate the geometry of the boundary of the Italian administrative units; b.2) their coding in a programming language; b.3) their execution and, eventually, b.4) archiving the results in a permanent support. The IT solution we implemented is centered around a (PostgreSQL/PostGIS) Geo DataBase structured in terms of three tables that fit well to the hierarchy of nesting of the Italian administrative units: municipality(id, name, provinceId, istatCode, regionId, geometry) province(id, name, regionId, geometry) region(id, name, geometry). The adoption of the DBMS technology allows us to implement the steps "a)" and "b)" easily. In particular, step "b)" is simplified dramatically by calling spatial operators and spatial built-in User Defined Functions within SQL queries against the Geo DB. The major findings coming from our experiments can be summarized as follows. The approximation that, on the average, descends from assimilating the residence of the citizens with the centroid of the administrative unit of reference is of few kilometers (4.9) at the municipalities level, while it becomes conspicuous at the other two levels (28.9 and 36.1, respectively). Therefore, studies such as those mentioned above can be extended up to the municipal level without affecting the correctness of the interpretation of the results, but not further. The IT framework implemented to carry out the experiments can be replicated for studies referring to the territory of other countries all over the world.

Keywords: quality of life, distance measurement error, Italian administrative units, spatial database

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Authors: Hamed Kalhori, Lin Ye

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In this study, an inverse method was developed to reconstruct the magnitude and duration of impact forces exerted to a rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. The dynamic signals captured by Piezoelectric (PZT) sensors installed on the panel remotely from the impact locations were utilized to reconstruct the impact force generated by an instrumented hammer through an extended deconvolution approach. Two discretized forms of convolution integral are considered; the traditional one with an explicit transfer function and the modified one without an explicit transfer function. Deconvolution, usually applied to reconstruct the time history (e.g. magnitude) of a stochastic force at a defined location, is extended to identify both the location and magnitude of the impact force among a number of potential impact locations. It is assumed that a number of impact forces are simultaneously exerted to all potential locations, but the magnitude of all forces except one is zero, implicating that the impact occurs only at one location. The extended deconvolution is then applied to determine the magnitude as well as location (among the potential ones), incorporating the linear superposition of responses resulted from impact at each potential location. The problem can be categorized into under-determined (the number of sensors is less than that of impact locations), even-determined (the number of sensors equals that of impact locations), or over-determined (the number of sensors is greater than that of impact locations) cases. For an under-determined case, it comprises three potential impact locations and one PZT sensor for the rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. Assessments are conducted to evaluate the factors affecting the precision of the reconstructed force. Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) and the Tikhonov regularization are independently chosen to regularize the problem to find the most suitable method for this system. The selection of optimal value of the regularization parameter is investigated through L-curve and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) methods. In addition, the effect of different width of signal windows on the reconstructed force is examined. It is observed that the impact force generated by the instrumented impact hammer is sensitive to the impact locations of the structure, having a shape from a simple half-sine to a complicated one. The accuracy of the reconstructed impact force is evaluated using the correlation co-efficient between the reconstructed force and the actual one. Based on this criterion, it is concluded that the forces reconstructed by using the extended deconvolution without an explicit transfer function together with Tikhonov regularization match well with the actual forces in terms of magnitude and duration.

Keywords: honeycomb composite panel, deconvolution, impact localization, force reconstruction

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Authors: Sidrah Ahmed

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The river and lakes flows are modeled mathematically by shallow water equations that are depth-averaged Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations under Boussinesq approximation. The temperature stratification dynamics influence the water quality and mixing characteristics. It is mainly due to the atmospheric conditions including air temperature, wind velocity, and radiative forcing. The experimental observations are commonly taken along vertical scales and are not sufficient to estimate small turbulence effects of temperature variations induced characteristics of shallow flows. Wind shear stress over the water surface influence flow patterns, heat fluxes and thermodynamics of water bodies as well. Hence it is crucial to couple temperature gradients with shallow water model to estimate the atmospheric effects on flow patterns. The Ripa system has been introduced to study ocean currents as a variant of shallow water equations with addition of temperature variations within the flow. Ripa model is a hyperbolic system of partial differential equations because all the eigenvalues of the system’s Jacobian matrix are real and distinct. The time steps of a numerical scheme are estimated with the eigenvalues of the system. The solution to Riemann problem of the Ripa model is composed of shocks, contact and rarefaction waves. Solving Ripa model with Riemann initial data with the central schemes is difficult due to the eigen structure of the system.This works presents the comparison of four different finite difference schemes for the numerical solution of Riemann problem for Ripa model. These schemes include Lax-Friedrichs, Lax-Wendroff, MacCormack scheme and a higher order finite difference scheme with WENO method. The numerical flux functions in both dimensions are approximated according to these methods. The temporal accuracy is achieved by employing TVD Runge Kutta method. The numerical tests are presented to examine the accuracy and robustness of the applied methods. It is revealed that Lax-Freidrichs scheme produces results with oscillations while Lax-Wendroff and higher order difference scheme produce quite better results.

Keywords: finite difference schemes, Riemann problem, shallow water equations, temperature gradients

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Authors: Gayathri Devi V, Aravamudan Kannan, Amit Sircar

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In the inner fuel cycle system of a nuclear fusion reactor, the Hydrogen Isotopes Removal System (HIRS) plays a pivoted role. It enables the effective extraction of the hydrogen isotopes from the breeder purge gas which helps to maintain the tritium breeding ratio and sustain the fusion reaction. One of the components of HIRS, Cryogenic Molecular Sieve Bed (CMSB) columns with zeolites adsorbents are considered for the physisorption of hydrogen isotopes at 1 bar and 77 K. Even though zeolites have good thermal stability and reduced activation properties making them ideal for use in nuclear reactor applications, their modest capacity for hydrogen isotopes adsorption is a cause of concern. In order to enhance the adsorbent capacity in an informed manner, it is helpful to understand the adsorption phenomena at the quantum electronic structure level. Physicochemical modifications of the adsorbent material enhances the adsorption capacity through the incorporation of active sites. This may be accomplished through the incorporation of suitable metal ions in the zeolite framework. In this work, molecular hydrogen isotopes adsorption on the active sites of functionalized zeolites are investigated in detail using Density Functional Theory (DFT) study. This involves the utilization of hybrid Generalized Gradient Approximation (GGA) with dispersion correction to account for the exchange and correlation functional of DFT. The electronic energies, adsorption enthalpy, adsorption free energy, Highest Occupied Molecular Orbital (HOMO), Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (LUMO) energies are computed on the stable 8T zeolite clusters as well as the periodic structure functionalized with different active sites. The characteristics of the dihydrogen bond with the active metal sites and the isotopic effects are also studied in detail. Validation studies with DFT will also be presented for adsorption of hydrogen on metal ion functionalized zeolites. The ab-inito screening analysis gave insights regarding the mechanism of hydrogen interaction with the zeolites under study and also the effect of the metal ion on adsorption. This detailed study provides guidelines for selection of the appropriate metal ions that may be incorporated in the zeolites framework for effective adsorption of hydrogen isotopes in the HIRS.

Keywords: adsorption enthalpy, functionalized zeolites, hydrogen isotopes, nuclear fusion, physisorption

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Authors: Veslava Osinska, Adam Szalach, Dominik Piotrowski

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Contemporary VR technologies allow users to explore virtual 3D spaces where they can work, socialize, learn, and play. User's interaction with GUI and the pictures displayed implicate perceptual and also cognitive processes which can be monitored due to neuroadaptive technologies. These modalities provide valuable information about the users' intentions, situational interpretations, and emotional states, to adapt an application or interface accordingly. Virtual galleries outfitted by specialized assets have been designed using the Unity engine BITSCOPE project in the frame of CHIST-ERA IV program. Users interaction with gallery objects implies the questions about his/her visual interests in art works and styles. Moreover, an attention, curiosity, and other emotional states are possible to be monitored and analyzed. Natural gaze behavior data and eye position were recorded by built-in eye-tracking module within HTC Vive headset gogle for VR. Eye gaze results are grouped due to various users’ behavior schemes and the appropriate perpetual-cognitive styles are recognized. Parallelly usability tests and surveys were adapted to identify the basic features of a user-centered interface for the virtual environments across most of the timeline of the project. A total of sixty participants were selected from the distinct faculties of University and secondary schools. Users’ primary knowledge about art and was evaluated during pretest and this way the level of art sensitivity was described. Data were collected during two months. Each participant gave written informed consent before participation. In data analysis reducing the high-dimensional data into a relatively low-dimensional subspace ta non linear algorithms were used such as multidimensional scaling and novel technique technique t-Stochastic Neighbor Embedding. This way it can classify digital art objects by multi modal time characteristics of eye tracking measures and reveal signatures describing selected artworks. Current research establishes the optimal place on aesthetic-utility scale because contemporary interfaces of most applications require to be designed in both functional and aesthetical ways. The study concerns also an analysis of visual experience for subsamples of visitors, differentiated, e.g., in terms of frequency of museum visits, cultural interests. Eye tracking data may also show how to better allocate artefacts and paintings or increase their visibility when possible.

Keywords: eye tracking, VR, UX, visual art, virtual gallery, visual communication

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Authors: Paola Causin, Andrea Aspri, Alessandro Benfenati

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Diffuse Optical Tomography (DOT) is an emergent medical imaging technique which employs NIR light to estimate the spatial distribution of optical coefficients in biological tissues for diagnostic purposes, in a noninvasive and non-ionizing manner. DOT reconstruction is a severely ill-conditioned problem due to prevalent scattering of light in the tissue. In this contribution, we present our research in adopting hybrid knowledgedriven/data-driven approaches which exploit the existence of well assessed physical models and build upon them neural networks integrating the availability of data. Namely, since in this context regularization procedures are mandatory to obtain a reasonable reconstruction [1], we explore the use of neural networks as tools to include prior information on the solution. 2. Materials and Methods The idea underlying our approach is to leverage neural networks to solve PDE-constrained inverse problems of the form 𝒒 ∗ = 𝒂𝒓𝒈 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒒 𝐃(𝒚, 𝒚̃), (1) where D is a loss function which typically contains a discrepancy measure (or data fidelity) term plus other possible ad-hoc designed terms enforcing specific constraints. In the context of inverse problems like (1), one seeks the optimal set of physical parameters q, given the set of observations y. Moreover, 𝑦̃ is the computable approximation of y, which may be as well obtained from a neural network but also in a classic way via the resolution of a PDE with given input coefficients (forward problem, Fig.1 box ). Due to the severe ill conditioning of the reconstruction problem, we adopt a two-fold approach: i) we restrict the solutions (optical coefficients) to lie in a lower-dimensional subspace generated by auto-decoder type networks. This procedure forms priors of the solution (Fig.1 box ); ii) we use regularization procedures of type 𝒒̂ ∗ = 𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒒 𝐃(𝒚, 𝒚̃)+ 𝑹(𝒒), where 𝑹(𝒒) is a regularization functional depending on regularization parameters which can be fixed a-priori or learned via a neural network in a data-driven modality. To further improve the generalizability of the proposed framework, we also infuse physics knowledge via soft penalty constraints (Fig.1 box ) in the overall optimization procedure (Fig.1 box ). 3. Discussion and Conclusion DOT reconstruction is severely hindered by ill-conditioning. The combined use of data-driven and knowledgedriven elements is beneficial and allows to obtain improved results, especially with a restricted dataset and in presence of variable sources of noise.

Keywords: inverse problem in tomography, deep learning, diffuse optical tomography, regularization

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Authors: Kollie B. Dogba, Willis Oluoch-Kosura, Chepchumba Chumo

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In Liberia, many of the agricultural households cultivate cassava for either sustenance purposes, or to generate farm income. Many of the concentrated cassava farmers reside in Nimba, a north-eastern County that borders two other economies: the Republics of Cote D’Ivoire and Guinea. With a high demand for cassava output and products in emerging Asian markets coupled with an objective of the Liberia agriculture policies to increase the competitiveness of valued agriculture crops; there is a need to examine the level of resource-use efficiency for many agriculture crops. However, there is a scarcity of information on the efficiency of many agriculture crops, including cassava. Hence the study applying an output-oriented method seeks to assess the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba County, Liberia. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to generate a sample for the study. From 216 cassava farmers, data related to on-farm attributes, socio-economic and institutional factors were collected. The stochastic frontier models, using the Translog functional forms, of production and revenue, were used to determine the level of revenue efficiency and its determinants. The result showed that most of the cassava farmers are male (60%). Many of the farmers are either married, engaged or living together with a spouse (83%), with a mean household size of nine persons. Farmland is prevalently obtained by inheritance (95%), average farm size is 1.34 hectares, and most cassava farmers did not access agriculture credits (76%) and extension services (91%). The mean cassava output per hectare is 1,506.02 kg, which estimates average revenue of L$23,551.16 (Liberian dollars). Empirical results showed that the revenue efficiency of cassava farmers varies from 0.1% to 73.5%; with the mean revenue efficiency of 12.9%. This indicates that on average, there is a vast potential of 87.1% to increase the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba by improving technical and allocative efficiencies. For the significant determinants of revenue efficiency, age and group membership had negative effects on revenue efficiency of cassava production; while farming experience, access to extension, formal education, and average wage rate have positive effects. The study recommends the setting-up and incentivizing of farmer field schools for cassava farmers to primarily share their farming experiences with others and to learn robust cultivation techniques of sustainable agriculture. Also, farm managers and farmers should consider a fix wage rate in labor contracts for all stages of cassava farming.

Keywords: economic efficiency, frontier production and revenue functions, Nimba County, Liberia, output-oriented approach, revenue efficiency, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Mikhail Zimin, Svetlana Zimina, Maxim Zimin

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Without question, the basic method of prevention of human and material losses is the provision for adequate strength of constructions. At the same time, seismic load has a stochastic character. So, at all times, there is little danger of earthquake forces exceeding the selected design load. This risk is very low, but the consequences of such events may be extremely serious. Very dangerous are also occasional mistakes in seismic zoning, soil conditions changing before temblors, and failure to take into account hazardous natural phenomena caused by earthquakes. Besides, it is known that temblors detrimentally affect the environmental situation in regions where they occur, resulting in panic and worsening various disease courses. It may lead to mistakes of personnel of hazardous production facilities like the production and distribution of gas and oil, which may provoke severe accidents. In addition, gas and oil pipelines often have long mileage and cross many perilous zones by contrast with buildings. This situation increases the risk of heavy accidents. In such cases, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities would be relevant. Even though the number of successful real-time forecasts of earthquakes is not great, it is well in excess, such as may be under random guessing. Experimental performed time-lapse study and analysis consist of searching seismic, biological, meteorological, and light earthquake precursors, processing such data with the help of fuzzy sets, collecting weather information, utilizing a database of terrain, and computing risk of slope processes under the temblor in a given setting. Works were done in a real-time environment and broadly acceptable results took place. Observations from already in-place seismic recording systems are used. Furthermore, a look back study of precursors of known earthquakes is done. Situations before Ashkhabad, Tashkent, and Haicheng seismic events are analyzed. Fairish findings are obtained. Results of earthquake forecasts can be used for predicting dangerous natural phenomena caused by temblors such as avalanches and mudslides. They may also be utilized for prophylaxis of some diseases and their complications. Relevant software is worked out too. It should be emphasized that such control does not require serious financial expenses and can be performed by a small group of professionals. Thus, complex monitoring of potential earthquake localities, including short-term earthquake forecasts and analysis of possible hazardous consequences of temblors, may further the safety of pipeline facilities.

Keywords: risk, earthquake, monitoring, forecast, precursor

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Authors: Adan Valdez, Shawn Gallaher, James Morison, Jordan Aragon

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Global climate change has impacted atmospheric temperatures contributing to rising sea levels, decreasing sea ice, and increased freshening of high latitude oceans. This freshening has contributed to increased stratification inhibiting local mixing and nutrient transport and modifying regional circulations in polar oceans. In recent years, the Western Arctic has seen an increase in freshwater volume at an average rate of 397+-116 km3/year. The majority of the freshwater volume resides in the Beaufort Gyre surface lens driven by anticyclonic wind forcing, sea ice melt, and Arctic river runoff. The total climatological freshwater content is typically defined as water fresher than 34.8. The near-isothermal nature of Arctic seawater and non-linearities in the equation of state for near-freezing waters result in a salinity driven pycnocline as opposed to the temperature driven density structure seen in the lower latitudes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between freshwater content and remotely sensed dynamic ocean topography (DOT). In-situ measurements of freshwater content are useful in providing information on the freshening rate of the Beaufort Gyre; however, their collection is costly and time consuming. NASA’s Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) derived dynamic ocean topography (DOT), and Air Expendable CTD (AXCTD) derived Freshwater Content are used to develop a linear regression model. In-situ data for the regression model is collected across the 150° West meridian, which typically defines the centerline of the Beaufort Gyre. Two freshwater content models are determined by integrating the freshwater volume between the surface and an isopycnal corresponding to reference salinities of 28.7 and 34.8. These salinities correspond to those of the winter pycnocline and total climatological freshwater content, respectively. Using each model, we determine the strength of the linear relationship between freshwater content and satellite derived DOT. The result of this modeling study could provide a future predictive capability of freshwater volume changes in the Beaufort-Chukchi Sea using non in-situ methods. Successful employment of the ICESat-2’s DOT approximation of freshwater content could potentially reduce reliance on field deployment platforms to characterize physical ocean properties.

Keywords: ICESat-2, dynamic ocean topography, freshwater content, beaufort gyre

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Authors: Kristina Pflug, Markus Busch

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Being able to predict polymer properties and processing behavior based on the applied operating reaction conditions in one of the key challenges in modern polymer reaction engineering. Especially, for cost-intensive processes such as the high-pressure polymerization of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with high safety-requirements, the need for simulation-based process optimization and product design is high. A multi-scale modelling approach was set-up and validated via a series of high-pressure mini-plant autoclave reactor experiments. The approach starts with the numerical modelling of the complex reaction network of the LDPE polymerization taking into consideration the actual reaction conditions. While this gives average product properties, the complex polymeric microstructure including random short- and long-chain branching is calculated via a hybrid Monte Carlo-approach. Finally, the processing behavior of LDPE -its melt flow behavior- is determined in dependence of the previously determined polymeric microstructure using the branch on branch algorithm for randomly branched polymer systems. All three steps of the multi-scale modelling approach can be independently validated against analytical data. A triple-detector GPC containing an IR, viscosimetry and multi-angle light scattering detector is applied. It serves to determine molecular weight distributions as well as chain-length dependent short- and long-chain branching frequencies. 13C-NMR measurements give average branching frequencies, and rheological measurements in shear and extension serve to characterize the polymeric flow behavior. The accordance of experimental and modelled results was found to be extraordinary, especially taking into consideration that the applied multi-scale modelling approach does not contain parameter fitting of the data. This validates the suggested approach and proves its universality at the same time. In the next step, the modelling approach can be applied to other reactor types, such as tubular reactors or industrial scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for systematically varying process conditions is easily feasible. The developed multi-scale modelling approach finally gives the opportunity to predict and design LDPE processing behavior simply based on process conditions such as feed streams and inlet temperatures and pressures.

Keywords: low-density polyethylene, multi-scale modelling, polymer properties, reaction engineering, rheology

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Jie Liu, Jinqu Cheng, Qiyuan Peng, Yong Yin

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Urban rail transit (URT) plays a significant role in dealing with traffic congestion and environmental problems in cities. However, equipment failure and obstruction of links often lead to URT links’ capacities loss in daily operation. It affects the reliability and transport service quality of URT network seriously. In order to measure the influence of links’ capacities loss on reliability and transport service quality of URT network, passengers are divided into three categories in case of links’ capacities loss. Passengers in category 1 are less affected by the loss of links’ capacities. Their travel is reliable since their travel quality is not significantly reduced. Passengers in category 2 are affected by the loss of links’ capacities heavily. Their travel is not reliable since their travel quality is reduced seriously. However, passengers in category 2 still can travel on URT. Passengers in category 3 can not travel on URT because their travel paths’ passenger flow exceeds capacities. Their travel is not reliable. Thus, the proportion of passengers in category 1 whose travel is reliable is defined as reliability indicator of URT network. The transport service quality of URT network is related to passengers’ travel time, passengers’ transfer times and whether seats are available to passengers. The generalized travel cost is a comprehensive reflection of travel time, transfer times and travel comfort. Therefore, passengers’ average generalized travel cost is used as transport service quality indicator of URT network. The impact of links’ capacities loss on transport service quality of URT network is measured with passengers’ relative average generalized travel cost with and without links’ capacities loss. The proportion of the passengers affected by links and betweenness of links are used to determine the important links in URT network. The stochastic user equilibrium distribution model based on the improved logit model is used to determine passengers’ categories and calculate passengers’ generalized travel cost in case of links’ capacities loss, which is solved with method of successive weighted averages algorithm. The reliability and transport service quality indicators of URT network are calculated with the solution result. Taking Wuhan Metro as a case, the reliability and transport service quality of Wuhan metro network is measured with indicators and method proposed in this paper. The result shows that using the proportion of the passengers affected by links can identify important links effectively which have great influence on reliability and transport service quality of URT network; The important links are mostly connected to transfer stations and the passenger flow of important links is high; With the increase of number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss, the reliability of the network keeps decreasing, the proportion of passengers in category 3 keeps increasing and the proportion of passengers in category 2 increases at first and then decreases; When the number of failure links and the proportion of capacity loss increased to a certain level, the decline of transport service quality is weakened.

Keywords: urban rail transit network, reliability, transport service quality, links’ capacities loss, important links

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Authors: Emmanuel Ophel Gilbert, Williams Speret

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The control for fluid flow behaviours of viscous fluids and heat transfer occurrences within heated mini-channel is considered. Heat transfer and flow characteristics of different viscous liquids, such as engine oil, automatic transmission fluid, one-half ethylene glycol, and deionized water were numerically analyzed. Some mathematical applications such as Fourier series and Laplace Z-Transforms were employed to ascertain the behaviour-wave like structure of these each viscous fluids. The steady, laminar flow and heat transfer equations are reckoned by the aid of numerical simulation technique. Further, this numerical simulation technique is endorsed by using the accessible practical values in comparison with the anticipated local thermal resistances. However, the roughness of this mini-channel that is one of the physical limitations was also predicted in this study. This affects the frictional factor. When an additive such as tetracycline was introduced in the fluid, the heat input was lowered, and this caused pro rata effect on the minor and major frictional losses, mostly at a very minute Reynolds number circa 60-80. At this ascertained lower value of Reynolds numbers, there exists decrease in the viscosity and minute frictional losses as a result of the temperature of these viscous liquids been increased. It is inferred that the three equations and models are identified which supported the numerical simulation via interpolation and integration of the variables extended to the walls of the mini-channel, yields the utmost reliance for engineering and technology calculations for turbulence impacting jets in the near imminent age. Out of reasoning with a true equation that could support this control for the fluid flow, Navier-stokes equations were found to tangential to this finding. Though, other physical factors with respect to these Navier-stokes equations are required to be checkmated to avoid uncertain turbulence of the fluid flow. This paradox is resolved within the framework of continuum mechanics using the classical slip condition and an iteration scheme via numerical simulation method that takes into account certain terms in the full Navier-Stokes equations. However, this resulted in dropping out in the approximation of certain assumptions. Concrete questions raised in the main body of the work are sightseen further in the appendices.

Keywords: frictional losses, heat transfer, laminar flow, mini-channel, number simulation, Reynolds number, turbulence, viscous fluids

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Marita Heyns

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Job insecurity is a distressing phenomenon which has far reaching consequences for both employees and their organizations. Previously, much attention has been given to the link between job insecurity and individual level performance outcomes, while less is known about how subjectively perceived job insecurity might transfer beyond the individual level to affect performance of the organization on an aggregated level. Research focusing on how employees’ fear of job loss might affect the organization’s ability to respond proactively to volatility and drastic change through applying its capabilities of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring, appears to be practically non-existent. Equally little is known about the potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the dynamic capabilities of an organization. This study examines how job insecurity might affect dynamic organizational capability through trust as an underling process. More specifically, it considered the simultaneous roles of trust at an impersonal (organizational) level as well as trust at an interpersonal level (in leaders and co-workers) as potential underlying mechanisms through which job insecurity might affect the organization’s dynamic capability to respond to opportunities and imminent, drastic change. A quantitative research approach and a stratified random sampling technique enabled the collection of data among 314 managers at four different plant sites of a large South African steel manufacturing organization undergoing dramatic changes. To assess the study hypotheses, the following statistical procedures were employed: Structural equation modelling was performed in Mplus to evaluate the measurement and structural models. The Chi-square values test for absolute fit as well as alternative fit indexes such as the Comparative Fit Index and the Tucker-Lewis Index, the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation and the Standardized Root Mean Square Residual were used as indicators of model fit. Composite reliabilities were calculated to evaluate the reliability of the factors. Finally, interaction effects were tested by using PROCESS and the construction of two-sided 95% confidence intervals. The findings indicate that job insecurity had a lower-than-expected detrimental effect on evaluations of the organization’s dynamic capability through the conducive buffering effects of trust in the organization and in its leaders respectively. In contrast, trust in colleagues did not seem to have any noticeable facilitative effect. The study proposes that both job insecurity and dynamic capability can be managed more effectively by also paying attention to factors that could promote trust in the organization and its leaders; some practical recommendations are given in this regard.

Keywords: dynamic organizational capability, impersonal trust, interpersonal trust, job insecurity

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cerdova

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The contamination of food by microbial agents is a common problem in the industry, especially regarding the elaboration of animal source products. Incorrect manipulation of the machinery or on the raw materials can cause a decrease in production or an epidemiological outbreak due to intoxication. In order to improve food product quality, different methods have been used to reduce or, at least, to slow down the growth of the pathogens, especially deteriorated, infectious or toxigenic bacteria. These methods are usually carried out under low temperatures and short processing time (abiotic agents), along with the application of antibacterial substances, such as bacteriocins (biotic agents). This, in a controlled and efficient way that fulfills the purpose of bacterial control without damaging the final product. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to design a secondary mathematical model that allows the prediction of both the biotic and abiotic factor impact associated with animal source food processing. In order to accomplish this objective, the authors propose a three-dimensional differential equation model, whose components are: bacterial growth, release, production and artificial incorporation of bacteriocins and changes in pH levels of the medium. These three dimensions are constantly being influenced by the temperature of the medium. Secondly, this model adapts to an idealized situation of cross-contamination animal source food processing, with the study agents being both the animal product and the contact surface. Thirdly, the stochastic simulations and the parametric sensibility analysis are compared with referential data. The main results obtained from the analysis and simulations of the mathematical model were to discover that, although bacterial growth can be stopped in lower temperatures, even lower ones are needed to eradicate it. However, this can be not only expensive, but counterproductive as well in terms of the quality of the raw materials and, on the other hand, higher temperatures accelerate bacterial growth. In other aspects, the use and efficiency of bacteriocins are an effective alternative in the short and medium terms. Moreover, an indicator of bacterial growth is a low-level pH, since lots of deteriorating bacteria are lactic acids. Lastly, the processing times are a secondary agent of concern when the rest of the aforementioned agents are under control. Our main conclusion is that when acclimating a mathematical model within the context of the industrial process, it can generate new tools that predict bacterial contamination, the impact of bacterial inhibition, and processing method times. In addition, the mathematical modeling proposed logistic input of broad application, which can be replicated on non-meat food products, other pathogens or even on contamination by crossed contact of allergen foods.

Keywords: bacteriocins, cross-contamination, mathematical model, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Alberto Mínguez-Martínez, Jesús de Vicente y Oliva

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Modern manufacturing processes have led to the miniaturization of systems and, as a result, parts at the micro-and nanoscale are produced. This trend seems to become increasingly important in the near future. Besides, as a requirement of Industry 4.0, the digitalization of the models of production and processes makes it very important to ensure that the dimensions of newly manufactured parts meet the specifications of the models. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the scrap and the cost of non-conformities, ensuring the stability of the production at the same time. To ensure the quality of manufactured parts, it becomes necessary to carry out traceable measurements at scales lower than one millimeter. Providing adequate traceability to the SI unit of length (the meter) to 2D and 3D measurements at this scale is a problem that does not have a unique solution in industrial environments. Researchers in the field of dimensional metrology all around the world are working on this issue. A solution for industrial environments, even if it is not complete, will enable working with some traceability. At this point, we believe that the study of the surfaces could provide us with a first approximation to a solution. Among the different options proposed in the literature, the areal topography methods may be the most relevant because they could be compared to those measurements performed using Coordinate Measuring Machines (CMM’s). These measuring methods give (x, y, z) coordinates for each point, expressing it in two different ways, either expressing the z coordinate as a function of x, denoting it as z(x), for each Y-axis coordinate, or as a function of the x and y coordinates, denoting it as z (x, y). Between others, optical measuring instruments, mainly microscopes, are extensively used to carry out measurements at scales lower than one millimeter because it is a non-destructive measuring method. In this paper, the authors propose a calibration procedure for the scales of optical measuring instruments, particularizing for a confocal microscope, using material standards easy to find and calibrate in metrology and quality laboratories in industrial environments. Confocal microscopes are measuring instruments capable of filtering the out-of-focus reflected light so that when it reaches the detector, it is possible to take pictures of the part of the surface that is focused. Varying and taking pictures at different Z levels of the focus, a specialized software interpolates between the different planes, and it could reconstruct the surface geometry into a 3D model. As it is easy to deduce, it is necessary to give traceability to each axis. As a complementary result, the roughness Ra parameter will be traced to the reference. Although the solution is designed for a confocal microscope, it may be used for the calibration of other optical measuring instruments by applying minor changes.

Keywords: industrial environment, confocal microscope, optical measuring instrument, traceability

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Authors: Carlos Teodoro, Oscar Bautista

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In this work, we analyze theoretically the mass transport in a time-periodic electroosmotic flow through a parallel flat plate microchannel under different periodic functions of the applied external electric field. The microchannel connects two reservoirs having different constant concentrations of an electro-neutral solute, and the zeta potential of the microchannel walls are assumed to be uniform. The governing equations that allow determining the mass transport in the microchannel are given by the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, the modified Navier-Stokes equations, where the Debye-Hückel approximation is considered (the zeta potential is less than 25 mV), and the species conservation. These equations are nondimensionalized and four dimensionless parameters appear which control the mass transport phenomenon. In this sense, these parameters are an angular Reynolds, the Schmidt and the Péclet numbers, and an electrokinetic parameter representing the ratio of the half-height of the microchannel to the Debye length. To solve the mathematical model, first, the electric potential is determined from the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, which allows determining the electric force for various periodic functions of the external electric field expressed as Fourier series. In particular, three different excitation wave forms of the external electric field are assumed, a) sawteeth, b) step, and c) a periodic irregular functions. The periodic electric forces are substituted in the modified Navier-Stokes equations, and the hydrodynamic field is derived for each case of the electric force. From the obtained velocity fields, the species conservation equation is solved and the concentration fields are found. Numerical calculations were done by considering several binary systems where two dilute species are transported in the presence of a carrier. It is observed that there are different angular frequencies of the imposed external electric signal where the total mass transport of each species is the same, independently of the molecular diffusion coefficient. These frequencies are called crossover frequencies and are obtained graphically at the intersection when the total mass transport is plotted against the imposed frequency. The crossover frequencies are different depending on the Schmidt number, the electrokinetic parameter, the angular Reynolds number, and on the type of signal of the external electric field. It is demonstrated that the mass transport through the microchannel is strongly dependent on the modulation frequency of the applied particular alternating electric field. Possible extensions of the analysis to more complicated pulsation profiles are also outlined.

Keywords: electroosmotic flow, mass transport, oscillatory flow, species separation

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Authors: Peter Egri, Tamas Kis

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Scheduling problems have been studied by the algorithmic mechanism design research from the beginning. This paper is focusing on a practically important, but theoretically rather neglected field: the project scheduling problem where the jobs connected by precedence constraints compete for various nonrenewable resources, such as materials. Although the centralized problem can be solved in polynomial-time by applying the algorithm of Carlier and Rinnooy Kan from the Eighties, obtaining materials in a decentralized environment is usually far from optimal. It can be observed in practical production scheduling situations that project managers tend to cache the required materials as soon as possible in order to avoid later delays due to material shortages. This greedy practice usually leads both to excess stocks for some projects and materials, and simultaneously, to shortages for others. The aim of this study is to develop a model for the material allocation problem of a production plant, where a central decision maker—the inventory—should assign the resources arriving at different points in time to the jobs. Since the actual due dates are not known by the inventory, the mechanism design approach is applied with the projects as the self-interested agents. The goal of the mechanism is to elicit the required information and allocate the available materials such that it minimizes the maximal tardiness among the projects. It is assumed that except the due dates, the inventory is familiar with every other parameters of the problem. A further requirement is that due to practical considerations monetary transfer is not allowed. Therefore a mechanism without money is sought which excludes some widely applied solutions such as the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves scheme. In this work, a type of Serial Dictatorship Mechanism (SDM) is presented for the studied problem, including a polynomial-time algorithm for computing the material allocation. The resulted mechanism is both truthful and Pareto optimal. Thus the randomization over the possible priority orderings of the projects results in a universally truthful and Pareto optimal randomized mechanism. However, it is shown that in contrast to problems like the many-to-many matching market, not every Pareto optimal solution can be generated with an SDM. In addition, no performance guarantee can be given compared to the optimal solution, therefore this approximation characteristic is investigated with experimental study. All in all, the current work studies a practically relevant scheduling problem and presents a novel truthful material allocation mechanism which eliminates the potential benefit of the greedy behavior that negatively influences the outcome. The resulted allocation is also shown to be Pareto optimal, which is the most widely used criteria describing a necessary condition for a reasonable solution.

Keywords: material allocation, mechanism without money, polynomial-time mechanism, project scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Igor V. Savchenko, Dmitrii A. Samoshkin

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The active study of the properties of lanthanides has begun in the late 50s of the last century, when methods for their purification were developed and metals with a relatively low content of impurities were obtained. Nevertheless, up to date, many properties of the rare earth metals (REM) have not been experimentally investigated, or insufficiently studied. Currently, the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of lanthanides have been studied most thoroughly in the low-temperature region and at moderate temperatures (near 293 K). In the high-temperature region, corresponding to the solid phase, data on the thermophysical characteristics of the REM are fragmentary and in some cases contradictory. Analysis of the literature showed that the data on the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity of light REM in the liquid state are few in number, little informative (only one point corresponds to the liquid state region), contradictory (the nature of the thermal conductivity change with temperature is not reproduced), as well as the results of measurements diverge significantly beyond the limits of the total errors. Thereby our experimental results allow to fill this gap and to clarify the existing information on the heat transfer coefficients of neodymium and samarium in a wide temperature range from the melting point up to 1770 K. The measurement of the thermal conductivity of investigated metallic melts was carried out by laser flash technique on an automated experimental setup LFA-427. Neodymium sample of brand NM-1 (99.21 wt % purity) and samarium sample of brand SmM-1 (99.94 wt % purity) were cut from metal ingots and then ones were annealed in a vacuum (1 mPa) at a temperature of 1400 K for 3 hours. Measuring cells of a special design from tantalum were used for experiments. Sealing of the cell with a sample inside it was carried out by argon-arc welding in the protective atmosphere of the glovebox. The glovebox was filled with argon with purity of 99.998 vol. %; argon was additionally cleaned up by continuous running through sponge titanium heated to 900–1000 K. The general systematic error in determining the thermal conductivity of investigated metallic melts was 2–5%. The approximation dependences and the reference tables of the thermal conductivity and thermal diffusivity coefficients were developed. New reliable experimental data on the transport properties of the REM and their changes in phase transitions can serve as a scientific basis for optimizing the industrial processes of production and use of these materials, as well as ones are of interest for the theory of thermophysical properties of substances, physics of metals, liquids and phase transformations.

Keywords: high temperatures, laser flash technique, liquid state, metallic melt, rare earth metals, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Ana Breda, Catarina Cruz

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Daily, we face unpredictable events, often attributed to chance, as there is no justification for such an occurrence. Chance, understood as a source of uncertainty, is present in several aspects of human life, such as weather forecasts, dice rolling, and lottery. Surprisingly, humans and some animals can quickly adjust their behavior to handle efficiently doubly stochastic processes (random events with two layers of randomness, like unpredictable weather affecting dice rolling). This adjustment ability suggests that the human brain has built-in mechanisms for perceiving, understanding, and responding to simple probabilities. It also explains why current trends in mathematics education include probability concepts in official curriculum programs, starting from the third year of primary education onwards. In the first years of schooling, children learn to use a certain type of (specific) vocabulary, such as never, always, rarely, perhaps, likely, and unlikely, to help them to perceive and understand the probability of some events. These are keywords of crucial importance for their perception and understanding of probabilities. The development of the probabilistic concepts comes from facts and cause-effect sequences resulting from the subject's actions, as well as the notion of chance and intuitive estimates based on everyday experiences. As part of a junior summer school program, which took place at a Portuguese university, a non-formal learning experiment was carried out with 18 children in the 5th and 6th grades. This experience was designed to be implemented in a dynamic of a serious ice-breaking game, to assess their levels of probabilistic, critical, and creative thinking in understanding impossible, certain, equally probable, likely, and unlikely events, and also to gain insight into how the non-formal learning context influenced their achievements. The criteria used to evaluate probabilistic thinking included the creative ability to conceive events classified in the specified categories, the ability to properly justify the categorization, the ability to critically assess the events classified by other children, and the ability to make predictions based on a given probability. The data analysis employs a qualitative, descriptive, and interpretative-methods approach based on students' written productions, audio recordings, and researchers' field notes. This methodology allowed us to conclude that such an approach is an appropriate and helpful formative assessment tool. The promising results of this initial exploratory study require a future research study with children from these levels of education, from different regions, attending public or private schools, to validate and expand our findings.

Keywords: critical and creative thinking, non-formal mathematics learning, probabilistic thinking, serious game

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Lorenza Sganzetta, Nunzia Borrelli

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The research intends to reflect on the current mapping of the Food Strategies, on the reasons why in the planning objectives panorama, such sustainability priorities are located in those geographic areas and on the evolutions of these priorities of the Mediterranean planning dispositions. The whirling population growth that is affecting global cities is causing an enormous challenge to conventional resource-intensive food production and supply and the urgent need to face food safety, food security and sustainability concerns. Urban or Territorial Food Strategies can provide an interesting path for the development of this new agenda within the imperative principle of sustainability. In the specific, it is relevant to explore what ‘sustainability’ means within these policies. Most of these plans include actions related to four main components and interpretations of sustainability that are food security and safety, food equity, environmental sustainability itself and cultural identity and, at the designing phase, they differ slightly from each other according to the degree of approximation to one of these dimensions. Moving from these assumptions, the article would analyze some practices and policies representatives of different Food Strategies of the world and focus on the Mediterranean ones, on the problems and negative externalities from which they start, on the first interventions that are implementing and on their main objectives. We will mainly use qualitative data from primary and secondary collections. So far, an essential observation could have been made about the relationship between these sustainability dimensions and geography. In statistical terms, the US and Canadian policies tended to devote a large research space to health issues and access to food; those northern European showed a special attention to the environmental issues and the shortening of the chain; and finally the policies that, even in limited numbers, were being developed in the Mediterranean basin, were characterized by a strong territorial and cultural imprint and their major aim was to preserve local production and the contact between the productive land and the end consumer. Recently, though, Mediterranean food planning strategies are focusing more on health related and food accessibility issues and analyzing our diets not just as a matter of culture and territorial branding but as tools for reducing public health costs and accessibility to fresh food for everyone. The article would reflect then on how Food Safety, Food Security and Health are entering the new agenda of the Mediterranean Food Strategies. The research hypothesis suggests that the economic crisis that in the last years invested both producers and consumers had a significant impact on the nutrition habits and on the redefinition of food poverty, even in the fatherland of the healthy Mediterranean diet. This trend and other variables influenced the orientation and the objectives of the food strategies.

Keywords: food security, food strategy, health, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Medine Demir, Volker John

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Fluid equations in a rotating frame of reference have a broad class of important applications in meteorology and oceanography, especially in the large-scale flows considered in ocean and atmosphere, as well as many physical and industrial applications. The Coriolis and the centripetal forces, resulting from the rotation of the earth, play a crucial role in such systems. For such applications it may be required to solve the system in complex three-dimensional geometries. In recent years, the Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame have been investigated in a number of papers using the classical inf-sup stable mixed methods, like Taylor-Hood pairs, to contribute to the analysis and the accurate and efficient numerical simulation. Numerical analysis reveals that these classical methods introduce a pressure-dependent contribution in the velocity error bounds that is proportional to some inverse power of the viscosity. Hence, these methods are optimally convergent but small velocity errors might not be achieved for complicated pressures and small viscosity coefficients. Several approaches have been proposed for improving the pressure-robustness of pairs of finite element spaces. In this contribution, a pressure-robust space discretization of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame of reference is considered. The discretization employs divergence-free, $H^1$-conforming mixed finite element methods like Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this approach might come with a modification of the meshes, like the use of barycentric-refined grids in case of Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this strategy requires the finite element code to have control on the mesh generator which is not realistic in many engineering applications and might also be in conflict with the solver for the linear system. An error estimate for the velocity is derived that tracks the dependency of the error bound on the coefficients of the problem, in particular on the angular velocity. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results. The idea of pressure-robust method could be cast on different types of flow problems which would be considered as future studies. As another future research direction, to avoid a modification of the mesh, one may use a very simple parameter-dependent modification of the Scott-Vogelius element, the pressure-wired Stokes element, such that the inf-sup constant is independent of nearly-singular vertices.

Keywords: navier-stokes equations in a rotating frame of refence, coriolis force, pressure-robust error estimate, scott-vogelius pairs of finite element spaces

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

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Authors: Kedar Hardikar, Joe Varghese

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Conductive adhesives have found wide-ranging applications in electronics industry ranging from fixing a defective conductor on printed circuit board (PCB) attaching an electronic component in an assembly to protecting electronics components by the formation of “Faraday Cage.” The reliability requirements for the conductive adhesive vary widely depending on the application and expected product lifetime. While the conductive adhesive is required to maintain the structural integrity, the electrical performance of the associated sub-assembly can be affected by the degradation of conductive adhesive. The degradation of the adhesive is dependent upon the highly varied use case. The conventional approach to assess the reliability of the sub-assembly involves subjecting it to the standard environmental test conditions such as high-temperature high humidity, thermal cycling, high-temperature exposure to name a few. In order to enable projection of test data and observed failures to predict field performance, systematic development of an acceleration factor between the test conditions and field conditions is crucial. Common acceleration factor models such as Arrhenius model are based on rate kinetics and typically rely on an assumption of linear degradation in time for a given condition and test duration. The application of interest in this work involves conductive adhesive used in an electronic circuit of a capacitive sensor. The degradation of conductive adhesive in high temperature and humidity environment is quantified by the capacitance values. Under such conditions, the use of established models such as Hallberg-Peck model or Eyring Model to predict time to failure in the field typically relies on linear degradation rate. In this particular case, it is seen that the degradation is nonlinear in time and exhibits a square root t dependence. It is also shown that for the mechanism of interest, the presence of moisture is essential, and the dominant mechanism driving the degradation is the diffusion of moisture. In this work, a framework is developed to incorporate nonlinear degradation of the conductive adhesive for the development of an acceleration factor. This method can be extended to applications where nonlinearity in degradation rate can be adequately characterized in tests. It is shown that depending on the expected product lifetime, the use of conventional linear degradation approach can overestimate or underestimate the field performance. This work provides guidelines for suitability of linear degradation approximation for such varied applications

Keywords: conductive adhesives, nonlinear degradation, physics of failure, acceleration factor model.

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