Search results for: Gaussian-Wishart emission model
17108 [Keynote Talk]: Heavy Metals in Marine Sediments of Gulf of Izmir
Authors: E. Kam, Z. U. Yümün, D. Kurt
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In this study, sediment samples were collected from four sampling sites located on the shores of the Gulf of İzmir. In the samples, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations were determined using inductively coupled, plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The average heavy metal concentrations were: Cd < LOD (limit of detection); Co 14.145 ± 0.13 μg g−1; Cr 112.868 ± 0.89 μg g−1; Cu 34.045 ± 0.53 μg g−1; Mn 481.43 ± 7.65 μg g−1; Ni 76.538 ± 3.81 μg g−1; Pb 11.059 ± 0.53 μg g−1 and Zn 140.133 ± 1.37 μg g−1, respectively. The results were compared with the average abundances of these elements in the Earth’s crust. The measured heavy metal concentrations can serve as reference values for further studies carried out on the shores of the Aegean Sea.Keywords: heavy metal, Aegean Sea, ICP-OES, sediment
Procedia PDF Downloads 18417107 Synthesis of Novel Nanostructure Copper(II) Metal-Organic Complex for Photocatalytic Degradation of Remdesivir Antiviral COVID-19 from Aqueous Solution: Adsorption Kinetic and Thermodynamic Studies
Authors: Sam Bahreini, Payam Hayati
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Metal-organic coordination [Cu(L)₄(SCN)₂] was synthesized applying ultrasonic irradiation, and its photocatalytic performance for the degradation of Remdesivir (RS) under sunlight irradiation was systematically explored for the first time in this study. The physicochemical properties of the synthesized photocatalyst were investigated using Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), powder x-ray diffraction (PXRD), energy-dispersive x-ray (EDX), thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) techniques. Systematic examinations were carried out by changing irradiation time, temperature, solution pH value, contact time, RS concentration, and catalyst dosage. The photodegradation kinetic profiles were modeled in pseudo-first order, pseudo-second-order, and intraparticle diffusion models reflected that photodegradation onto [Cu(L)₄(SCN)₂] catalyst follows pseudo-first order kinetic model. The fabricated [Cu(L)₄(SCN)₂] nanostructure bandgap was determined as 2.60 eV utilizing the Kubelka-Munk formula from the diffuse reflectance spectroscopy method. Decreasing chemical oxygen demand (COD) (from 70.5 mgL-1 to 36.4 mgL-1) under optimal conditions well confirmed mineralizing of the RS drug. The values of ΔH° and ΔS° was negative, implying the process of adsorption is spontaneous and more favorable in lower temperatures.Keywords: Photocatalytic degradation, COVID-19, density functional theory (DFT), molecular electrostatic potential (MEP)
Procedia PDF Downloads 16917106 Structural, Magnetic, Dielectric and Electrical Properties of Gd3+ Doped Cobalt Ferrite Nanoparticles
Authors: Raghvendra Singh Yadav, Ivo Kuřitka, Jarmila Vilcakova, Jaromir Havlica, Lukas Kalina, Pavel Urbánek, Michal Machovsky, Milan Masař, Martin Holek
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In this work, CoFe₂₋ₓGdₓO₄ (x=0.00, 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20) spinel ferrite nanoparticles are synthesized by sonochemical method. The structural properties and cation distribution are investigated using X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Raman Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The morphology and elemental analysis are screened using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, respectively. The particle size measured by FE-SEM and XRD analysis confirm the formation of nanoparticles in the range of 7-10 nm. The electrical properties show that the Gd³⁺ doped cobalt ferrite (CoFe₂₋ₓGdₓO₄; x= 0.20) exhibit enhanced dielectric constant (277 at 100 Hz) and ac conductivity (20.17 x 10⁻⁹ S/cm at 100 Hz). The complex impedance measurement study reveals that as Gd³⁺ doping concentration increases, the impedance Z’ and Z’ ’ decreases. The influence of Gd³⁺ doping in cobalt ferrite nanoparticles on the magnetic property is examined by using vibrating sample magnetometer. Magnetic property measurement reveal that the coercivity decreases with Gd³⁺ substitution from 234.32 Oe (x=0.00) to 12.60 Oe (x=0.05) and further increases from 12.60 Oe (x=0.05) to 68.62 Oe (x=0.20). The saturation magnetization decreases with Gd³⁺ substitution from 40.19 emu/g (x=0.00) to 21.58 emu/g (x=0.20). This decrease follows the three-sublattice model suggested by Yafet-Kittel (Y-K). The Y-K angle increases with the increase of Gd³⁺ doping in cobalt ferrite nanoparticles.Keywords: sonochemical method, nanoparticles, magnetic property, dielectric property, electrical property
Procedia PDF Downloads 35417105 A Business Model Design Process for Social Enterprises: The Critical Role of the Environment
Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi
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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.Keywords: social enterprise, business model, business model design, business model environment
Procedia PDF Downloads 37117104 An Extended Inverse Pareto Distribution, with Applications
Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim
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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 8217103 Study of Sub-Surface Flow in an Unconfined Carbonate Aquifer in a Tropical Karst Area in Indonesia: A Modeling Approach Using Finite Difference Groundwater Model
Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas
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Due to its porous nature, karst terrains – geomorphologically developed from dissolved formations, is vulnerable to water shortage and deteriorated water quality. Therefore, a solid comprehension on sub-surface flow of karst landscape is essential to assess the long-term availability of groundwater resources. In this paper, a single-continuum model using a finite difference model, MODLFOW, was constructed to represent an unconfined carbonate aquifer in a tropical karst island of Rote in Indonesia. The model, spatially discretized in 20 x 20 m grid cells, was calibrated and validated using available groundwater level and atmospheric variables. In the calibration and validation steps, Parameter Estimation (PEST) and geostatistical pilot point methods were employed to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific yield values. The results show that the model is able to represent the sub-surface flow indicated by good model performances both in calibration and validation steps. The final model can be used as a robust representation of the system for future study on climate and land use scenarios.Keywords: carbonate aquifer, karst, sub-surface flow, groundwater model
Procedia PDF Downloads 14817102 Social Media Retailing in the Creator Economy
Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu
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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing
Procedia PDF Downloads 11417101 Moving beyond the Social Model of Disability by Engaging in Anti-Oppressive Social Work Practice
Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald
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Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability
Procedia PDF Downloads 108317100 Evolving Software Assessment and Certification Models Using Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm
Authors: Saad M. Darwish
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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 52317099 The Effect of Online Analyzer Malfunction on the Performance of Sulfur Recovery Unit and Providing a Temporary Solution to Reduce the Emission Rate
Authors: Hamid Reza Mahdipoor, Mehdi Bahrami, Mohammad Bodaghi, Seyed Ali Akbar Mansoori
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Nowadays, with stricter limitations to reduce emissions, considerable penalties are imposed if pollution limits are exceeded. Therefore, refineries, along with focusing on improving the quality of their products, are also focused on producing products with the least environmental impact. The duty of the sulfur recovery unit (SRU) is to convert H₂S gas coming from the upstream units to elemental sulfur and minimize the burning of sulfur compounds to SO₂. The Claus process is a common process for converting H₂S to sulfur, including a reaction furnace followed by catalytic reactors and sulfur condensers. In addition to a Claus section, SRUs usually consist of a tail gas treatment (TGT) section to decrease the concentration of SO₂ in the flue gas below the emission limits. To operate an SRU properly, the flow rate of combustion air to the reaction furnace must be adjusted so that the Claus reaction is performed according to stoichiometry. Accurate control of the air demand leads to an optimum recovery of sulfur during the flow and composition fluctuations in the acid gas feed. Therefore, the major control system in the SRU is the air demand control loop, which includes a feed-forward control system based on predetermined feed flow rates and a feed-back control system based on the signal from the tail gas online analyzer. The use of online analyzers requires compliance with the installation and operation instructions. Unfortunately, most of these analyzers in Iran are out of service for different reasons, like the low importance of environmental issues and a lack of access to after-sales services due to sanctions. In this paper, an SRU in Iran was simulated and calibrated using industrial experimental data. Afterward, the effect of the malfunction of the online analyzer on the performance of SRU was investigated using the calibrated simulation. The results showed that an increase in the SO₂ concentration in the tail gas led to an increase in the temperature of the reduction reactor in the TGT section. This increase in temperature caused the failure of TGT and increased the concentration of SO₂ from 750 ppm to 35,000 ppm. In addition, the lack of a control system for the adjustment of the combustion air caused further increases in SO₂ emissions. In some processes, the major variable cannot be controlled directly due to difficulty in measurement or a long delay in the sampling system. In these cases, a secondary variable, which can be measured more easily, is considered to be controlled. With the correct selection of this variable, the main variable is also controlled along with the secondary variable. This strategy for controlling a process system is referred to as inferential control" and is considered in this paper. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the sensitivity of other measurable parameters to input disturbances. The results revealed that the output temperature of the first Claus reactor could be used for inferential control of the combustion air. Applying this method to the operation led to maximizing the sulfur recovery in the Claus section.Keywords: sulfur recovery, online analyzer, inferential control, SO₂ emission
Procedia PDF Downloads 7517098 Local Image Features Emerging from Brain Inspired Multi-Layer Neural Network
Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong
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Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition
Procedia PDF Downloads 54217097 Simulation of Optimal Runoff Hydrograph Using Ensemble of Radar Rainfall and Blending of Runoffs Model
Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim
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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph
Procedia PDF Downloads 28017096 Application Difference between Cox and Logistic Regression Models
Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka
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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio
Procedia PDF Downloads 45417095 Comparison of Wake Oscillator Models to Predict Vortex-Induced Vibration of Tall Chimneys
Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta
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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration
Procedia PDF Downloads 22117094 Rising Levels of Greenhouse Gases: Implication for Global Warming in Anambra State South Eastern Nigeria
Authors: Chikwelu Edward Emenike, Ogbuagu Uchenna Fredrick
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About 34% of the solar radiant energy reaching the earth is immediately reflected back to space as incoming radiation by clouds, chemicals, dust in the atmosphere and by the earth’s surface. Most of the remaining 66% warms the atmosphere and land. Most of the incoming solar radiation not reflect away is degraded into low-quality heat and flows into space. The rate at which this energy returns to space as low-quality heat is affected by the presence of molecules of greenhouse gases. Gaseous emission was measured with the aid of Growen gas Analyzer with a digital readout. Total measurements of eight parameters of twelve selected sample locations taken at two different seasons within two months were made. The ambient air quality investigation in Anambra State has shown the overall mean concentrations of gaseous emission at twelve (12) locations. The mean gaseous emissions showed (NO2=0.66ppm, SO2=0.30ppm, CO=43.93ppm, H2S=2.17ppm, CH4=1.27ppm, CFC=1.59ppb, CO2=316.33ppm, N2O=302.67ppb and O3=0.37ppm). These values do not conform to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and thus contribute significantly to the global warming. Because some of these gaseous emissions (SO2, NO2) are oxidizing agents, they act as irritants that damage delicate tissues in the eyes and respiratory passages. These can impair lung function and trigger cardiovascular problems as the heart tries to compensate for lack of Oxygen by pumping faster and harder. The major sources of air pollution are transportation, industrial processes, stationary fuel combustion and solid waste disposal, thus much is yet to be done in a developing country like Nigeria. Air pollution control using pollution-control equipment to reduce the major conventional pollutants, relocating people who live very close to dumpsites, processing and treatment of gases to produce electricity, heat, fuel and various chemical components should be encouraged.Keywords: ambient air, atmosphere, greenhouse gases, anambra state
Procedia PDF Downloads 43217093 Characteristics and Feature Analysis of PCF Labeling among Construction Materials
Authors: Sung-mo Seo, Chang-u Chae
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The Product Carbon Footprint Labeling has been run for more than four years by the Ministry of Environment and there are number of products labeled by KEITI, as for declaring products with their carbon emission during life cycle stages. There are several categories for certifying products by the characteristics of usage. Building products which are applied to a building as combined components. In this paper, current status of PCF labeling has been compared with LCI DB for data composition. By this comparative analysis, we suggest carbon labeling development.Keywords: carbon labeling, LCI DB, building materials, life cycle assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 42117092 On Differential Growth Equation to Stochastic Growth Model Using Hyperbolic Sine Function in Height/Diameter Modeling of Pines
Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu
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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic
Procedia PDF Downloads 48017091 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis
Authors: Tengqin Han
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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation
Procedia PDF Downloads 22817090 Proactive WPA/WPA2 Security Using DD-WRT Firmware
Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy
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Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT
Procedia PDF Downloads 23317089 Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at Births for Malaysian Sub-Populations
Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad
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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates
Procedia PDF Downloads 21817088 Efficient Sampling of Probabilistic Program for Biological Systems
Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava
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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 34817087 Machine Learning Model Applied for SCM Processes to Efficiently Determine Its Impacts on the Environment
Authors: Elena Puica
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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM
Procedia PDF Downloads 11617086 The Effect of Action Potential Duration and Conduction Velocity on Cardiac Pumping Efficacy: Simulation Study
Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim
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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model
Procedia PDF Downloads 20417085 Application of Computational Flow Dynamics (CFD) Analysis for Surge Inception and Propagation for Low Head Hydropower Projects
Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid
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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE
Procedia PDF Downloads 36117084 Effect of Windrow Management on Ammonia and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Swine Manure Composting
Authors: Nanh Lovanh, John Loughrin, Kimberly Cook, Phil Silva, Byung-Taek Oh
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In the era of sustainability, utilization of livestock wastes as soil amendment to provide micronutrients for crops is very economical and sustainable. It is well understood that livestock wastes are comparable, if not better, nutrient sources for crops as chemical fertilizers. However, the large concentrated volumes of animal manure produced from livestock operations and the limited amount of available nearby agricultural land areas necessitated the need for volume reduction of these animal wastes. Composting of these animal manures is a viable option for biomass and pathogenic reduction in the environment. Nevertheless, composting also increases the potential loss of available nutrients for crop production as well as unwanted emission of anthropogenic air pollutants due to the loss of ammonia and other compounds via volatilization. In this study, we examine the emission of ammonia and nitrous oxide from swine manure windrows to evaluate the benefit of biomass reduction in conjunction with the potential loss of available nutrients. The feedstock for the windrows was obtained from swine farm in Kentucky where swine manure was mixed with wood shaving as absorbent material. Static flux chambers along with photoacoustic gas analyzer were used to monitor ammonia and nitrous oxide concentrations during the composting process. The results show that ammonia and nitrous oxide fluxes were quite high during the initial composting process and after the turning of each compost pile. Over the period of roughly three months of composting, the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) decreased by about 90%. Although composting of animal waste is quite beneficial for biomass reduction, composting may not be economically feasible from an agronomical point of view due to time, nutrient loss (N loss), and potential environmental pollution (ammonia and greenhouse gas emissions). Therefore, additional studies are needed to assess and validate the economics and environmental impact of animal (swine) manure composting (e.g., crop yield or impact on climate change).Keywords: windrow, swine manure, ammonia, nitrous oxide, fluxes, management
Procedia PDF Downloads 35717083 Joint Modeling of Bottle Use, Daily Milk Intake from Bottles, and Daily Energy Intake in Toddlers
Authors: Yungtai Lo
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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model
Procedia PDF Downloads 28717082 A Numerical Model Simulation for an Updraft Gasifier Using High-Temperature Steam
Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam
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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier
Procedia PDF Downloads 40617081 Multiphase Flow Model for 3D Numerical Model Using ANSYS for Flow over Stepped Cascade with End Sill
Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood
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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys
Procedia PDF Downloads 33617080 Developing an Integrated Seismic Risk Model for Existing Buildings in Northern Algeria
Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca
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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability
Procedia PDF Downloads 20117079 Modelling of Atomic Force Microscopic Nano Robot's Friction Force on Rough Surfaces
Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji
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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model
Procedia PDF Downloads 199