Search results for: Federico Méndez

Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

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Authors: Pedro A. Marques, Francisco Monteiro, Alessandra Zumbo, Alessia Simonini, Miguel A. Mendez

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Cryogenic fuels such as Liquid Hydrogen (LH₂) must be transported and stored at extremely low temperatures. Without expensive active cooling solutions, preventing fuel boil-off over time is impossible. Hence, one must resort to venting systems at the cost of significant energy and fuel mass loss. These losses increase significantly in propellant tanks installed on vehicles, as the presence of external accelerations induces sloshing. Sloshing increases heat and mass transfer rates and leads to significant pressure oscillations, which might further trigger propellant venting. To make LH₂ economically viable, it is essential to minimize these factors by using advanced control techniques. However, these require accurate modelling and a full understanding of the tank's thermodynamics. The present research aims to implement a simple thermodynamic model capable of predicting the state of a cryogenic fuel tank under different operating conditions (i.e., filling, pressurization, fuel extraction, long-term storage, and sloshing). Since this model relies on a set of closure parameters to drive the system's transient response, it must be calibrated using experimental or numerical data. This work focuses on the former approach, wherein the model is calibrated through an experimental campaign carried out on a reduced-scale model of a cryogenic tank. The thermodynamic model of the system is composed of three control volumes: the ullage, the liquid, and the insulating walls. Under this lumped formulation, the governing equations are derived from energy and mass balances in each region, with mass-averaged properties assigned to each of them. The gas-liquid interface is treated as an infinitesimally thin region across which both phases can exchange mass and heat. This results in a coupled system of ordinary differential equations, which must be closed with heat and mass transfer coefficients between each control volume. These parameters are linked to the system evolution via empirical relations derived from different operating regimes of the tank. The derivation of these relations is carried out using an inverse method to find the optimal relations that allow the model to reproduce the available data. This approach extends classic system identification methods beyond linear dynamical systems via a nonlinear optimization step. Thanks to the data-driven assimilation of the closure problem, the resulting model accurately predicts the evolution of the tank's thermodynamics at a negligible computational cost. The lumped model can thus be easily integrated with other submodels to perform complete system simulations in real time. Moreover, by setting the model in a dimensionless form, a scaling analysis allowed us to relate the tested configurations to a representative full-size tank for naval applications. It was thus possible to compare the relative importance of different transport phenomena between the laboratory model and the full-size prototype among the different operating regimes.

Keywords: destratification, hydrogen, modeling, pressure-drop, pressurization, sloshing, thermodynamics

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: José Silvestre Mendoza Figueroa, Anders Kvarnheden, Jesús Méndez Lozano, Edgar Antonio Rodríguez Negrete, Manuel Soriano García

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Agroindustrial plants such as cereals and pseudo cereals offer a substantial source of biomacromolecules, as they contain large amounts per tissue-gram of proteins, polysaccharides and lipids in comparison with other plants. In particular, Amaranthus hypochondriacus seeds have high levels of proteins in comparison with other cereal and pseudo cereal species, which makes the plant a good source of bioactive molecules such as peptides. Geminiviruses are one principal class of pathogens that causes important economic losses in crops, affecting directly the development and production of the plant. One such virus is the Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), which affects mainly Solanacea family plants such as tomato species. The symptoms of the disease are curling of leaves, chlorosis, dwarfing and floral abortion. The aim of this work was to get peptides derived from enzymatic hydrolysis of globulins and albumins from amaranth seeds with specific recognition of the replication origin in the TYLCV genome, and to test the antiviral activity on host plants with the idea to generate a direct control of this viral infection. Globulins and albumins from amaranth were extracted, the fraction was enzymatically digested with papain, and the aromatic peptides fraction was selected for further purification. Six peptides were tested against the replication origin (OR) using affinity assays, surface resonance plasmon and fluorescent titration, and two of these peptides showed high affinity values to the replication origin of the virus, dissociation constant values were calculated and showed specific interaction between the peptide Ampep1 and the OR. An in vitro replication test of the total TYLCV DNA was performed, in which the peptide AmPep1 was added in different concentrations to the system reaction, which resulted in a decrease of viral DNA synthesis when the peptide concentration increased. Also, we showed that the peptide can decrease the complementary DNA chain of the virus in Nicotiana benthamiana leaves, confirming that the peptide binds to the OR and that its expected mechanism of action is to decrease the replication rate of the viral genome. In an infection assay, N. benthamiana plants were agroinfected with TYLCV-Israel and TYLCV-Guasave. After confirming systemic infection, the peptide was infiltrated in new infected leaves, and the plants treated with the peptide showed a decrease of virus symptoms and viral titer. In order to confirm the antiviral activity in a commercial crop, tomato plants were infected with TYLCV. After confirming systemic infection, plants were infiltrated with peptide solution as above, and the symptom development was monitored 21 days after treatment, showing that tomato plants treated with peptides had lower symptom rates and viral titer. The peptide was also tested against other begomovirus such as Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus (PHYVV-Guasave), showing a decrease of symptoms in N. benthamiana infected plants. The model of direct biochemical control of TYLCV infection shown in this work can be extrapolated to other begomovirus infections, and the methods reported here can be used for design of antiviral agrochemicals for other plant virus infections.

Keywords: agrochemical screening, antiviral, begomovirus, geminivirus, peptides, plasmon, TYLCV

Procedia PDF Downloads 278